FBG Predictions Vs. Actuals (1 Viewer)

[tytyty]

5 Year subscriber here. I love the Articles, Stats, Advice, Forums, Tools, etc. It seems though about every year at this time I make a request and it never gets fulfilled.

The Request -

Can we have an Article or whatever you want to call it that takes the Projections from last year and compares it to the End of Year Actual Stats? So for example if FBG had Javon Walker the 5th WR going into last year and obviously his Actual Stats were way down compared to his FBG Projection, you can show the differential and have the remark - Injured Most The Year. The purpose of this is not for injured players but the a direct comparison of the Players in their Positions for Before and After the Season. Then let us analyze why the 2nd rated QB Projected finished 13th for example.

Projecting without looking back to see the mistakes or the successes doesn't make too much sense in my opinion.

Now mind you I would do this on my own but I can barely use a computer. Also, last year there was a lot of agreement on this task but it never came to fruition.

And for the funny guys (and you're really not) I know Projections are guesses. There is no science and I do not need FBG to give me the Powerball numbers for tomorrow night. Just a little analysis on why things went off the track or why they were right on.

Humbly yours,

A long time FBG guy. Thanks

 

[culdeus]

It's around. Too lazy to find a link. Try the dominator forum.

 

[tytyty]

Does anyone else know where this is? It would be a first.

 

[glock]

:crickets:

 

[Joe_]

I don't ever remember seeing this before, but I'd definitely be interested.

 

[Wade]

Actually, I can't even find last season's projections on the site...

 

[P Boy]

If this is found, it should be pointed out that FBGs didn't screw up. The player just didn't perform properly.

TIA for understanding.

 

[Joe T]

I'd like to see this as well.

 

[shake zula]

Hey this is Bill from Baaayston, long time listener first time caller....

 

[RageRhino]

I'd like to see this as well.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

last years projection have been removed i think. we may have to get some people together to start putting this together on their own. i know i am going to save the FBG projections to my comp this year for comparisson later.even a small like top 20 players comparison at each position or something would be appreciated.

 

[2112]

5 Year subscriber here. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

[Dolfan]

If this is found, it should be pointed out that FBGs didn't screw up.  The player just didn't perform properly.

TIA for understanding.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

[tytyty]

Any FBG guys on this?

 

[David Yudkin]

I don't have anything to do with the projections so I can't comment as to how accurate they are, but since Walker was brought up, I do wonder if people expected us to know he was going to get injured.

 

[tytyty]

ok now, thats why i qualified it first. no one is blaming here. we know they are projections. just want to see the comparison. i love you, it's ok.

 

[JayMan]

I don't have anything to do with the projections so I can't comment as to how accurate they are, but since Walker was brought up, I do wonder if people expected us to  know he was going to get injured.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't think that was the point tytyty wanted to make... I'm pretty sure he wants to know of past years FBG projections - compared to actual numbers... showing that the first 12WRs are undervalued by an average of 6.6 ADPs, for example...And that some of the "missfires" can be explained by injuries... causing the projections of Walker's 90/1400/11 to be obsolete...

my 2 cents...

 

[Family Matters]

In reading this I first thought it would be nice but then I realized what difference does it make? Too many variable are in play for the info to be of value. Injuries are just 1 aspect. There's contracts, drafts, agents, competition and so forth that leave you in a no-win scenario.

So if they did this, which projections would be used? The original ones or the daily updated? Do we take out injuries or leave them in? I do not think you can get to where you want to be on this and find any value in the information. Just my .02 cents worth.

 

[P Boy]

I don't have anything to do with the projections so I can't comment as to how accurate they are, but since Walker was brought up, I do wonder if people expected us to  know he was going to get injured.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Do you really have that short of a memory?Typical Late Sept/Early August topic:

I hate Footbal guyz!!! You tuk my $20 and then Javon Wakker goes an getz hert and now my seeson is runed. I want a re..a re.. uh - I want my munny back now. You guyz suck. I hate you all. I hope you fal down the steers and get kilt

It'll happen this coming season, sure as death & taxes.

 

[bagger.]

If FBG is going to tout its projections, I think a year end analysis of where they went right and wrong is only fair.

 

[Joe_]

When I picture this feature, I think of a nice side by side comparison between real and actual with some notes when they differ by a large margin. Like notes about injuries, the poorer than expected performance of the offense in general, a bad case of the dropsies, or whatever.

 

[Iron_Far]

Would love to see this as well.

 

[The Finist]

When I picture this feature, I think of a nice side by side comparison between real and actual with some notes when they differ by a large margin.  Like notes about injuries, the poorer than expected performance of the offense in general, a bad case of the dropsies, or whatever.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

[tytyty]

The people are talking!!! The injury example on the original post was just that. I am more interested in why did Player A get Projected so high then bam he did not do well or vice versa. Don't get stuck on the injury thing.

 

[David Yudkin]

I think the only valuable element to such an exercise would be to stack up our projections vs several others. i believe there is some sort of comparison done amoungt different sites, but I don't think it's as comprehensive as some may be yearning for here.

If we were the only data point, would being "fairly close" 47% of the time really mean anything? I would suppose that if other sites were "fairly close" 32% of the time than we could have done "better."

 

[10993]

I think the only valuable element to such an exercise would be to stack up our projections vs several others.  i believe there is some sort of comparison done amoungt different sites, but I don't think it's as comprehensive as some may be yearning for here.

If we were the only data point, would being "fairly close" 47% of the time really mean anything?  I would suppose that if other sites were "fairly close" 32% of the time than we could have done "better."

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

We did this measuring deviation from the ranking between my rankings last year and David and Joe's rankings last year.As a result, MTScup now owes me $20.

 

[bagger.]

I think the only valuable element to such an exercise would be to stack up our projections vs several others.  i believe there is some sort of comparison done amoungt different sites, but I don't think it's as comprehensive as some may be yearning for here.

If we were the only data point, would being "fairly close" 47% of the time really mean anything?  I would suppose that if other sites were "fairly close" 32% of the time than we could have done "better."

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I disagree. Maybe you do much better STD DEV for WRs than you do RBs.There is a lot of value to only looking at FBGs hit rate regardless of what other sites do.

Essentially all the OP is asking is for FBG to hold its projections to be accountable and explain why you did or did not do well across certain positions.

 

[LHUCKS]

FF Index does a quantified comparison every year of 10/12 sites' rankings...FBG is one of the parties, so your best bet is to look there.

The value of FBG doesn't lie in the projections, it's the tools it provides. Ask any of the sharks around here, almost all of them use their own projections, but pay for the subscription for the tools/information.

I suppose if you're a novice and you're drafting straight from projections that is where you could find value here at FBG, but if you're serious about winning wouldn't you want a second opinion from another source anyhow?

 

[Driver]

When I picture this feature, I think of a nice side by side comparison between real and actual with some notes when they differ by a large margin.  Like notes about injuries, the poorer than expected performance of the offense in general, a bad case of the dropsies, or whatever.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Great idea! I'd also like to see average draft position (ADP) on the chart (as of Sept. 1st or last week before games started last year).

 

[David Yudkin]

Speaking for myself ONLY (and not for FBG), there are players that I invest a lot of time, energy, and research on and many more that I do not.

For example, I spent countless hours on projecting Peyton Manning and concluded that his expected TD total should be 35 on the high side but more likely he'd be around 30. In my mind, I was about as close as you could get to Manning and would pat myself on the back for that.

On the flipside, I spent very little time on someone like Leftwich. In fact, I can't even remember what I projected him at and don't really feel that it makes any difference. In my mind, I don't think I was all that far off (in my own projections), but I would not feel that I earned any brownie points for coming up with an educated guess vs. a detailed analysis like for Manning.

For me, there are key guys that I would say are important to project accurately and others that will fall through the cracks.

I understand that readers/subscribers would like a detailed analysis, explanation, and projection for 500 players, but I'm not sure that is capable coming from a single guy (or handful of guys).

Similarly, even if we split up projections among multiple staff members, things could go awry. For example, two of us could have Edge projected at 1500/10 total on the season, but if one guy had him at the #6 RB and the other at #12 there would be a disconnect.

 

[TeamDingo]

Rankings 8/31/05

( I think you can currently get this for free on fbg, if it is not ok to post i will gladly delete)

Rank ADP Diff Pos # Player Team/Bye

95 76 -19 Def 1 Baltimore Ravens Bal/3

104 98 -6 Def 2 Buffalo Bills Buf/9

115 96 -19 Def 3 New England Patriots NE/7

126 100 -26 Def 4 Pittsburgh Steelers Pit/4

134 132 -2 Def 5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers TB/7

144 113 -31 Def 6 Carolina Panthers Car/7

146 171 25 Def 7 New York Jets NYJ/8

153 196 43 Def 8 Cincinnati Bengals Cin/10

162 110 -52 Def 9 Philadelphia Eagles Phi/6

168 122 -46 Def 10 Atlanta Falcons Atl/8

175 149 -26 Def 11 Minnesota Vikings Min/5

178 172 -6 Def 12 Indianapolis Colts Ind/8

184 155 -29 Def 13 Washington Redskins Was/3

193 261 68 Def 14 New Orleans Saints NO/10

198 159 -39 Def 15 Jacksonville Jaguars Jac/7

206 165 -41 Def 16 Chicago Bears Chi/4

211 242 31 Def 17 Arizona Cardinals Ari/6

213 233 20 Def 18 Detroit Lions Det/3

218 223 5 Def 19 Seattle Seahawks Sea/8

224 158 -66 Def 20 Dallas Cowboys Dal/9

225 202 -23 Def 21 Miami Dolphins Mia/4

231 229 -2 Def 22 Kansas City Chiefs KC/5

237 250 13 Def 23 New York Giants NYG/5

240 208 -32 Def 24 San Diego Chargers SD/10

253 207 -46 Def 25 Denver Broncos Den/9

264 247 -17 Def 26 San Francisco 49ers SF/6

274 270 -4 Def 27 Cleveland Browns Cle/4

284 257 -27 Def 28 Houston Texans Hou/3

291 270 -21 Def 29 Green Bay Packers GB/6

296 270 -26 Def 30 Tennessee Titans Ten/10

302 220 -82 Def 31 Oakland Raiders Oak/5

306 224 -82 Def 32 St. Louis Rams StL/9

116 112 -4 PK 1 Mike Vanderjagt Ind/8

123 129 6 PK 2 Jason Elam Den/9

131 164 33 PK 3 Matt Stover Bal/3

139 123 -16 PK 4 David Akers Phi/6

148 114 -34 PK 5 Adam Vinatieri NE/7

157 244 87 PK 6 John Kasay Car/7

163 138 -25 PK 7 Sebastian Janikowski Oak/5

167 185 18 PK 8 Josh Brown Sea/8

169 143 -26 PK 9 Jeff Wilkins StL/9

174 178 4 PK 10 Shayne Graham Cin/10

177 248 71 PK 11 Paul Edinger Min/5

179 198 19 PK 12 Mike Nugent NYJ/8

186 170 -16 PK 13 Ryan Longwell GB/6

194 240 46 PK 14 John Carney NO/10

199 189 -10 PK 15 Nate Kaeding SD/10

203 228 25 PK 16 Jason Hanson Det/3

208 194 -14 PK 17 Jeff Reed Pit/4

214 270 56 PK 18 Josh Scobee Jac/7

219 254 35 PK 19 Ryan Lindell Buf/9

226 237 11 PK 20 Lawrence Tynes KC/5

232 258 26 PK 21 Neil Rackers Ari/6

238 270 32 PK 22 Jay Feely NYG/5

247 260 13 PK 23 Kris Brown Hou/3

258 270 12 PK 24 Todd Peterson Atl/8

270 251 -19 PK 25 Jose Cortez Dal/9

275 270 -5 PK 26 John Hall Was/3

280 270 -10 PK 27 Rob Bironas Ten/10

285 270 -15 PK 28 Olindo Mare Mia/4

292 264 -28 PK 29 Phil Dawson Cle/4

297 270 -27 PK 30 Joe Nedney SF/6

303 270 -33 PK 31 Doug Brien Chi/4

307 270 -37 PK 32 Matt Bryant TB/7

8 5 -3 QB 1 Peyton Manning Ind/8

15 14 -1 QB 2 Daunte Culpepper Min/5

34 27 -7 QB 3 Donovan McNabb Phi/6

37 39 2 QB 4 Marc Bulger StL/9

50 54 4 QB 5 Kerry Collins Oak/5

53 45 -8 QB 6 Trent Green KC/5

60 55 -5 QB 7 Michael Vick Atl/8

66 57 -9 QB 8 Brett Favre GB/6

69 62 -7 QB 9 Tom Brady NE/7

76 83 7 QB 10 Aaron Brooks NO/10

82 80 -2 QB 11 Jake Plummer Den/9

87 67 -20 QB 12 Matt Hasselbeck Sea/8

90 90 0 QB 13 Drew Brees SD/10

93 118 25 QB 14 Steve McNair Ten/10

96 109 13 QB 15 Byron Leftwich Jac/7

98 94 -4 QB 16 Jake Delhomme Car/7

105 78 -27 QB 17 Carson Palmer Cin/10

109 105 -4 QB 18 Chad Pennington NYJ/8

114 107 -7 QB 19 David Carr Hou/3

120 166 46 QB 20 Kyle Boller Bal/3

124 121 -3 QB 21 Joey Harrington Det/3

130 119 -11 QB 22 Brian Griese TB/7

135 126 -9 QB 23 Ben Roethlisberger Pit/4

141 215 74 QB 24 Patrick Ramsey Was/3

149 127 -22 QB 25 Kurt Warner Ari/6

154 150 -4 QB 26 Drew Bledsoe Dal/9

161 180 19 QB 27 J.P. Losman Buf/9

170 152 -18 QB 28 Eli Manning NYG/5

182 256 74 QB 29 Trent Dilfer Cle/4

191 255 64 QB 30 Gus Frerotte Mia/4

200 226 26 QB 31 Tim Rattay SF/6

207 214 7 QB 32 Kyle Orton Chi/4

215 270 55 QB 33 Jeff Blake Chi/4

220 209 -11 QB 34 Jeff Garcia Det/3

227 259 32 QB 35 Alex Smith SF/6

233 270 37 QB 36 Josh McCown Ari/6

239 270 31 QB 37 A.J. Feeley Mia/4

241 235 -6 QB 38 Billy Volek Ten/10

248 270 22 QB 39 Tim Hasselbeck NYG/5

254 270 16 QB 40 Matt Schaub Atl/8

259 270 11 QB 41 Kelly Holcomb Buf/9

265 270 5 QB 42 Charlie Frye Cle/4

276 270 -6 QB 43 Jamie Martin StL/9

286 270 -16 QB 44 Tony Romo Dal/9

298 270 -28 QB 45 Jay Fiedler NYJ/8

308 262 -46 QB 46 Jon Kitna Cin/10

1 1 0 RB 1 LaDainian Tomlinson SD/10

2 2 0 RB 2 Shaun Alexander Sea/8

3 3 0 RB 3 Priest Holmes KC/5

4 4 0 RB 4 Edgerrin James Ind/8

5 7 2 RB 5 Deuce McAllister NO/10

6 6 0 RB 6 Willis McGahee Buf/9

7 8 1 RB 7 Domanick Davis Hou/3

10 12 2 RB 8 Kevin Jones Det/3

11 15 4 RB 9 Julius Jones Dal/9

12 17 5 RB 10 Tiki Barber NYG/5

13 9 -4 RB 11 Clinton Portis Was/3

14 11 -3 RB 12 Corey Dillon NE/7

16 24 8 RB 13 Steven Jackson StL/9

17 21 4 RB 14 Brian Westbrook Phi/6

18 18 0 RB 15 Rudi Johnson Cin/10

20 16 -4 RB 16 Ahman Green GB/6

22 10 -12 RB 17 Jamal Lewis Bal/3

24 20 -4 RB 18 Curtis Martin NYJ/8

27 26 -1 RB 19 Lamont Jordan Oak/5

38 75 37 RB 20 Mike Anderson Den/9

39 38 -1 RB 21 J.J. Arrington Ari/6

42 44 2 RB 22 Warrick Dunn Atl/8

44 42 -2 RB 23 Fred Taylor Jac/7

47 60 13 RB 24 Kevan Barlow SF/6

52 34 -18 RB 25 Carnell Williams TB/7

55 47 -8 RB 26 Chris Brown Ten/10

56 68 12 RB 27 Larry Johnson KC/5

58 49 -9 RB 28 DeShaun Foster Car/7

59 48 -11 RB 29 Ronnie Brown Mia/4

64 71 7 RB 30 Thomas Jones Chi/4

71 93 22 RB 31 T.J. Duckett Atl/8

75 91 16 RB 32 Jerome Bettis Pit/4

78 77 -1 RB 33 Duce Staley Pit/4

83 89 6 RB 34 Mewelde Moore Min/5

86 63 -23 RB 35 Cedric Benson Chi/4

92 52 -40 RB 36 Michael Bennett Min/5

100 97 -3 RB 37 Reuben Droughns Cle/4

106 87 -19 RB 38 Lee Suggs Cle/4

108 115 7 RB 39 Michael Pittman TB/7

113 81 -32 RB 40 Travis Henry Ten/10

118 134 16 RB 41 Eric Shelton Car/7

125 103 -22 RB 42 Ricky Williams Mia/4

132 148 16 RB 43 Derrick Blaylock NYJ/8

137 104 -33 RB 44 Marshall Faulk StL/9

143 169 26 RB 45 Chester Taylor Bal/3

150 46 -104 RB 46 Tatum Bell Den/9

159 168 9 RB 47 Ryan Moats Phi/6

166 218 52 RB 48 Kevin Faulk NE/7

171 161 -10 RB 49 Marcel Shipp Ari/6

185 177 -8 RB 50 Brandon Jacobs NYG/5

190 199 9 RB 51 William Green Cle/4

195 236 41 RB 52 Ladell Betts Was/3

201 187 -14 RB 53 Anthony Thomas Dal/9

204 192 -12 RB 54 Moe Williams Min/5

209 212 3 RB 55 Vernand Morency Hou/3

216 133 -83 RB 56 LaBrandon Toefield Jac/7

221 270 49 RB 57 Tony Fisher GB/6

228 174 -54 RB 58 Dominic Rhodes Ind/8

234 153 -81 RB 59 Najeh Davenport GB/6

242 270 28 RB 60 Shawn Bryson Det/3

245 145 -100 RB 61 Frank Gore SF/6

250 162 -88 RB 62 Willie Parker Pit/4

252 270 18 RB 63 Zack Crockett Oak/5

256 270 14 RB 64 Justin Fargas Oak/5

260 211 -49 RB 65 Chris Perry Cin/10

263 270 7 RB 66 Greg Jones Jac/7

268 130 -138 RB 67 Stephen Davis Car/7

271 270 -1 RB 68 Shaud Williams Buf/9

277 270 -7 RB 69 Adrian Peterson Chi/4

281 270 -11 RB 70 Alvin Pearman Jac/7

287 270 -17 RB 71 Maurice Hicks SF/6

293 197 -96 RB 72 Ron Dayne Den/9

299 253 -46 RB 73 Michael Turner SD/10

304 270 -34 RB 74 Antowain Smith NO/10

309 231 -78 RB 75 Maurice Morris Sea/8

30 31 1 TE 1 Tony Gonzalez KC/5

40 35 -5 TE 2 Antonio Gates SD/10

51 53 2 TE 3 Jason Witten Dal/9

65 64 -1 TE 4 Jeremy Shockey NYG/5

79 69 -10 TE 5 Todd Heap Bal/3

84 65 -19 TE 6 Alge Crumpler Atl/8

99 82 -17 TE 7 Dallas Clark Ind/8

101 99 -2 TE 8 Randy McMichael Mia/4

111 156 45 TE 9 Chris Cooley Was/3

119 116 -3 TE 10 Eric Johnson SF/6

127 111 -16 TE 11 L.J. Smith Phi/6

133 128 -5 TE 12 Jermaine Wiggins Min/5

140 216 76 TE 13 Jerramy Stevens Sea/8

145 173 28 TE 14 Marcus Pollard Det/3

151 141 -10 TE 15 Bubba Franks GB/6

155 140 -15 TE 16 Jeb Putzier Den/9

160 160 0 TE 17 Doug Jolley NYJ/8

164 195 31 TE 18 Ben Troupe Ten/10

173 270 97 TE 19 Aaron Shea Cle/4

181 270 89 TE 20 Erron Kinney Ten/10

187 175 -12 TE 21 Daniel Graham NE/7

189 270 81 TE 22 Stephen Alexander Den/9

196 157 -39 TE 23 Heath Miller Pit/4

202 270 68 TE 24 Courtney Anderson Oak/5

212 182 -30 TE 25 Mark Campbell Buf/9

222 270 48 TE 26 Itula Mili Sea/8

229 270 41 TE 27 Kris Mangum Car/7

235 270 35 TE 28 Desmond Clark Chi/4

244 270 26 TE 29 Kyle Brady Jac/7

249 210 -39 TE 30 Ben Watson NE/7

255 184 -71 TE 31 Jim Kleinsasser Min/5

261 270 9 TE 32 Shad Meier NO/10

266 270 4 TE 33 Steve Heiden Cle/4

272 270 -2 TE 34 Kris Wilson KC/5

278 176 -102 TE 35 Matt Schobel Cin/10

282 241 -41 TE 36 Alex Smith TB/7

288 225 -63 TE 37 Anthony Becht TB/7

294 270 -24 TE 38 Roland Williams StL/9

300 270 -30 TE 39 Ernie Conwell NO/10

310 270 -40 TE 40 Mike Seidman Car/7

9 13 4 WR 1 Randy Moss Oak/5

19 19 0 WR 2 Torry Holt StL/9

21 23 2 WR 3 Marvin Harrison Ind/8

23 25 2 WR 4 Chad Johnson Cin/10

25 22 -3 WR 5 Terrell Owens Phi/6

26 29 3 WR 6 Joe Horn NO/10

28 28 0 WR 7 Javon Walker GB/6

29 30 1 WR 8 Andre Johnson Hou/3

31 51 20 WR 9 Drew Bennett Ten/10

32 32 0 WR 10 Reggie Wayne Ind/8

33 36 3 WR 11 Darrell Jackson Sea/8

35 33 -2 WR 12 Hines Ward Pit/4

36 37 1 WR 13 Nate Burleson Min/5

41 40 -1 WR 14 Roy Williams Det/3

43 43 0 WR 15 Michael Clayton TB/7

45 59 14 WR 16 Donald Driver GB/6

46 50 4 WR 17 Anquan Boldin Ari/6

48 41 -7 WR 18 Steve Smith Car/7

49 56 7 WR 19 Laveranues Coles NYJ/8

54 66 12 WR 19 Isaac Bruce StL/9

57 61 4 WR 20 Larry Fitzgerald Ari/6

61 73 12 WR 21 Jimmy Smith Jac/7

62 58 -4 WR 22 Jerry Porter Oak/5

63 74 11 WR 23 Ashley Lelie Den/9

67 79 12 WR 24 Deion Branch NE/7

68 95 27 WR 25 Rod Smith Den/9

70 70 0 WR 26 Chris Chambers Mia/4

72 85 13 WR 27 Lee Evans Buf/9

73 84 11 WR 28 Eric Moulds Buf/9

74 86 12 WR 29 Plaxico Burress NYG/5

77 88 11 WR 30 Muhsin Muhammad Chi/4

80 102 22 WR 31 Eddie Kennison KC/5

81 72 -9 WR 32 Derrick Mason Bal/3

85 101 16 WR 33 Santana Moss Was/3

88 106 18 WR 34 T.J. Houshmandzadeh Cin/10

89 144 55 WR 35 David Givens NE/7

91 131 40 WR 36 Keyshawn Johnson Dal/9

94 117 23 WR 37 Donte Stallworth NO/10

97 146 49 WR 38 Antonio Bryant Cle/4

102 92 -10 WR 39 Brandon Stokley Ind/8

103 135 32 WR 40 Brandon Lloyd SF/6

107 137 30 WR 41 Justin McCareins NYJ/8

110 108 -2 WR 42 Charles Rogers Det/3

112 120 8 WR 43 Keary Colbert Car/7

117 190 73 WR 44 Reggie Williams Jac/7

121 139 18 WR 45 Amani Toomer NYG/5

122 186 64 WR 46 Michael Jenkins Atl/8

128 270 142 WR 47 Dennis Northcutt Cle/4

129 193 64 WR 48 Joey Galloway TB/7

136 206 70 WR 49 Bobby Engram Sea/8

138 136 -2 WR 50 Travis Taylor Min/5

142 125 -17 WR 51 Keenan McCardell SD/10

147 217 70 WR 52 David Patten Was/3

152 201 49 WR 53 Reche Caldwell SD/10

156 181 25 WR 54 Greg Lewis Phi/6

158 124 -34 WR 55 Braylon Edwards Cle/4

165 204 39 WR 56 Terry Glenn Dal/9

172 151 -21 WR 57 Tyrone Calico Ten/10

176 200 24 WR 58 Rod Gardner Car/7

180 239 59 WR 59 Marty Booker Mia/4

183 252 69 WR 60 Arnaz Battle SF/6

188 147 -41 WR 61 Antwaan Randle El Pit/4

192 227 35 WR 62 Samie Parker KC/5

197 270 73 WR 63 Jabar Gaffney Hou/3

205 270 65 WR 64 Cedrick Wilson Pit/4

210 163 -47 WR 65 Kevin Curtis StL/9

217 270 53 WR 66 Quincy Morgan Dal/9

223 142 -81 WR 67 Mike Williams Det/3

230 270 40 WR 68 Eric Parker SD/10

236 179 -57 WR 69 Matt Jones Jac/7

243 249 6 WR 70 Robert Ferguson GB/6

246 203 -43 WR 71 Ronald Curry Oak/5

251 270 19 WR 72 Bryant Johnson Ari/6

257 154 -103 WR 73 Troy Williamson Min/5

262 270 8 WR 74 Corey Bradford Hou/3

267 188 -79 WR 75 Mark Clayton Bal/3

269 270 1 WR 76 Ike Hilliard TB/7

273 270 -3 WR 77 Shaun McDonald StL/9

279 270 -9 WR 78 Brandon Jones Ten/10

283 270 -13 WR 79 Clarence Moore Bal/3

289 270 -19 WR 80 Wayne Chrebet NYJ/8

290 245 -45 WR 81 Roddy White Atl/8

295 270 -25 WR 82 Mark Bradley Chi/4

301 219 -82 WR 83 David Boston Mia/4

305 270 -35 WR 84 Kevin Johnson Det/3

311 222 -89 WR 85 Reggie Brown Phi/6

 

[bagger.]

Speaking for myself ONLY (and not for FBG), there are players that I invest a lot of time, energy, and research on and many more that I do not.

For example, I spent countless hours on projecting Peyton Manning and concluded that his expected TD total should be 35 on the high side but more likely he'd be around 30.  In my mind, I was about as close as you could get to Manning and would pat myself on the back for that.

On the flipside, I spent very little time on someone like Leftwich.  In fact, I can't even remember what I projected him at and don't really feel that it makes any difference.  In my mind, I don't think I was all that far off (in my own projections), but I would not feel that I earned any brownie points for coming up with an educated guess vs. a detailed analysis like for Manning.

For me, there are key guys that I would say are important to project accurately and others that will fall through the cracks.

I understand that readers/subscribers would like a detailed analysis, explanation, and projection for 500 players, but I'm not sure that is capable coming from a single guy (or handful of guys).

Similarly, even if we split up projections among multiple staff members, things could go awry.  For example, two of us could have Edge projected at 1500/10 total on the season, but if one guy had him at the #6 RB and the other at #12 there would be a disconnect.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If you are saying that not all players in the projections are highly scrutinized I think people should know that ahead of time. Maybe asterisk the players you don't feel are worth the time.

 

[tytyty]

Good dialogue. Hucks you are right. You have to tweak the projections or what fun is it. On the other hand if we start with Dodds projections(one of the reasons we pay, not just all the other great stuff) it would seem to me that looking back is important. Dodds came out with his prelim yesterday without projections. He is now going to get those out. If he didn't look at last year or years before to see where it went good or bad, then I think he is doing himself a disservice. Although I think he does and would love to see it as another feature.

 

[bagger.]

Rankings  8/31/05

( I think you can  currently get this for free on fbg, if it is not ok to post i will gladly delete)

Rank ADP Diff Pos # Player Team/Bye

95 76 -19 Def 1 Baltimore Ravens Bal/3

104 98 -6 Def 2 Buffalo Bills Buf/9

115 96 -19 Def 3 New England Patriots NE/7

126 100 -26 Def 4 Pittsburgh Steelers Pit/4

134 132 -2 Def 5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers TB/7

144 113 -31 Def 6 Carolina Panthers Car/7

146 171 25 Def 7 New York Jets NYJ/8

153 196 43 Def 8 Cincinnati Bengals Cin/10

162 110 -52 Def 9 Philadelphia Eagles Phi/6

168 122 -46 Def 10 Atlanta Falcons Atl/8

175 149 -26 Def 11 Minnesota Vikings Min/5

178 172 -6 Def 12 Indianapolis Colts Ind/8

184 155 -29 Def 13 Washington Redskins Was/3

193 261 68 Def 14 New Orleans Saints NO/10

198 159 -39 Def 15 Jacksonville Jaguars Jac/7

206 165 -41 Def 16 Chicago Bears Chi/4

211 242 31 Def 17 Arizona Cardinals Ari/6

213 233 20 Def 18 Detroit Lions Det/3

218 223 5 Def 19 Seattle Seahawks Sea/8

224 158 -66 Def 20 Dallas Cowboys Dal/9

225 202 -23 Def 21 Miami Dolphins Mia/4

231 229 -2 Def 22 Kansas City Chiefs KC/5

237 250 13 Def 23 New York Giants NYG/5

240 208 -32 Def 24 San Diego Chargers SD/10

253 207 -46 Def 25 Denver Broncos Den/9

264 247 -17 Def 26 San Francisco 49ers SF/6

274 270 -4 Def 27 Cleveland Browns Cle/4

284 257 -27 Def 28 Houston Texans Hou/3

291 270 -21 Def 29 Green Bay Packers GB/6

296 270 -26 Def 30 Tennessee Titans Ten/10

302 220 -82 Def 31 Oakland Raiders Oak/5

306 224 -82 Def 32 St. Louis Rams StL/9

116 112 -4 PK 1 Mike Vanderjagt Ind/8

123 129 6 PK 2 Jason Elam Den/9

131 164 33 PK 3 Matt Stover Bal/3

139 123 -16 PK 4 David Akers Phi/6

148 114 -34 PK 5 Adam Vinatieri NE/7

157 244 87 PK 6 John Kasay Car/7

163 138 -25 PK 7 Sebastian Janikowski Oak/5

167 185 18 PK 8 Josh Brown Sea/8

169 143 -26 PK 9 Jeff Wilkins StL/9

174 178 4 PK 10 Shayne Graham Cin/10

177 248 71 PK 11 Paul Edinger Min/5

179 198 19 PK 12 Mike Nugent NYJ/8

186 170 -16 PK 13 Ryan Longwell GB/6

194 240 46 PK 14 John Carney NO/10

199 189 -10 PK 15 Nate Kaeding SD/10

203 228 25 PK 16 Jason Hanson Det/3

208 194 -14 PK 17 Jeff Reed Pit/4

214 270 56 PK 18 Josh Scobee Jac/7

219 254 35 PK 19 Ryan Lindell Buf/9

226 237 11 PK 20 Lawrence Tynes KC/5

232 258 26 PK 21 Neil Rackers Ari/6

238 270 32 PK 22 Jay Feely NYG/5

247 260 13 PK 23 Kris Brown Hou/3

258 270 12 PK 24 Todd Peterson Atl/8

270 251 -19 PK 25 Jose Cortez Dal/9

275 270 -5 PK 26 John Hall Was/3

280 270 -10 PK 27 Rob Bironas Ten/10

285 270 -15 PK 28 Olindo Mare Mia/4

292 264 -28 PK 29 Phil Dawson Cle/4

297 270 -27 PK 30 Joe Nedney SF/6

303 270 -33 PK 31 Doug Brien Chi/4

307 270 -37 PK 32 Matt Bryant TB/7

8 5 -3 QB 1 Peyton Manning Ind/8

15 14 -1 QB 2 Daunte Culpepper Min/5

34 27 -7 QB 3 Donovan McNabb Phi/6

37 39 2 QB 4 Marc Bulger StL/9

50 54 4 QB 5 Kerry Collins Oak/5

53 45 -8 QB 6 Trent Green KC/5

60 55 -5 QB 7 Michael Vick Atl/8

66 57 -9 QB 8 Brett Favre GB/6

69 62 -7 QB 9 Tom Brady NE/7

76 83 7 QB 10 Aaron Brooks NO/10

82 80 -2 QB 11 Jake Plummer Den/9

87 67 -20 QB 12 Matt Hasselbeck Sea/8

90 90 0 QB 13 Drew Brees SD/10

93 118 25 QB 14 Steve McNair Ten/10

96 109 13 QB 15 Byron Leftwich Jac/7

98 94 -4 QB 16 Jake Delhomme Car/7

105 78 -27 QB 17 Carson Palmer Cin/10

109 105 -4 QB 18 Chad Pennington NYJ/8

114 107 -7 QB 19 David Carr Hou/3

120 166 46 QB 20 Kyle Boller Bal/3

124 121 -3 QB 21 Joey Harrington Det/3

130 119 -11 QB 22 Brian Griese TB/7

135 126 -9 QB 23 Ben Roethlisberger Pit/4

141 215 74 QB 24 Patrick Ramsey Was/3

149 127 -22 QB 25 Kurt Warner Ari/6

154 150 -4 QB 26 Drew Bledsoe Dal/9

161 180 19 QB 27 J.P. Losman Buf/9

170 152 -18 QB 28 Eli Manning NYG/5

182 256 74 QB 29 Trent Dilfer Cle/4

191 255 64 QB 30 Gus Frerotte Mia/4

200 226 26 QB 31 Tim Rattay SF/6

207 214 7 QB 32 Kyle Orton Chi/4

215 270 55 QB 33 Jeff Blake Chi/4

220 209 -11 QB 34 Jeff Garcia Det/3

227 259 32 QB 35 Alex Smith SF/6

233 270 37 QB 36 Josh McCown Ari/6

239 270 31 QB 37 A.J. Feeley Mia/4

241 235 -6 QB 38 Billy Volek Ten/10

248 270 22 QB 39 Tim Hasselbeck NYG/5

254 270 16 QB 40 Matt Schaub Atl/8

259 270 11 QB 41 Kelly Holcomb Buf/9

265 270 5 QB 42 Charlie Frye Cle/4

276 270 -6 QB 43 Jamie Martin StL/9

286 270 -16 QB 44 Tony Romo Dal/9

298 270 -28 QB 45 Jay Fiedler NYJ/8

308 262 -46 QB 46 Jon Kitna Cin/10

1 1 0 RB 1 LaDainian Tomlinson SD/10

2 2 0 RB 2 Shaun Alexander Sea/8

3 3 0 RB 3 Priest Holmes KC/5

4 4 0 RB 4 Edgerrin James Ind/8

5 7 2 RB 5 Deuce McAllister NO/10

6 6 0 RB 6 Willis McGahee Buf/9

7 8 1 RB 7 Domanick Davis Hou/3

10 12 2 RB 8 Kevin Jones Det/3

11 15 4 RB 9 Julius Jones Dal/9

12 17 5 RB 10 Tiki Barber NYG/5

13 9 -4 RB 11 Clinton Portis Was/3

14 11 -3 RB 12 Corey Dillon NE/7

16 24 8 RB 13 Steven Jackson StL/9

17 21 4 RB 14 Brian Westbrook Phi/6

18 18 0 RB 15 Rudi Johnson Cin/10

20 16 -4 RB 16 Ahman Green GB/6

22 10 -12 RB 17 Jamal Lewis Bal/3

24 20 -4 RB 18 Curtis Martin NYJ/8

27 26 -1 RB 19 Lamont Jordan Oak/5

38 75 37 RB 20 Mike Anderson Den/9

39 38 -1 RB 21 J.J. Arrington Ari/6

42 44 2 RB 22 Warrick Dunn Atl/8

44 42 -2 RB 23 Fred Taylor Jac/7

47 60 13 RB 24 Kevan Barlow SF/6

52 34 -18 RB 25 Carnell Williams TB/7

55 47 -8 RB 26 Chris Brown Ten/10

56 68 12 RB 27 Larry Johnson KC/5

58 49 -9 RB 28 DeShaun Foster Car/7

59 48 -11 RB 29 Ronnie Brown Mia/4

64 71 7 RB 30 Thomas Jones Chi/4

71 93 22 RB 31 T.J. Duckett Atl/8

75 91 16 RB 32 Jerome Bettis Pit/4

78 77 -1 RB 33 Duce Staley Pit/4

83 89 6 RB 34 Mewelde Moore Min/5

86 63 -23 RB 35 Cedric Benson Chi/4

92 52 -40 RB 36 Michael Bennett Min/5

100 97 -3 RB 37 Reuben Droughns Cle/4

106 87 -19 RB 38 Lee Suggs Cle/4

108 115 7 RB 39 Michael Pittman TB/7

113 81 -32 RB 40 Travis Henry Ten/10

118 134 16 RB 41 Eric Shelton Car/7

125 103 -22 RB 42 Ricky Williams Mia/4

132 148 16 RB 43 Derrick Blaylock NYJ/8

137 104 -33 RB 44 Marshall Faulk StL/9

143 169 26 RB 45 Chester Taylor Bal/3

150 46 -104 RB 46 Tatum Bell Den/9

159 168 9 RB 47 Ryan Moats Phi/6

166 218 52 RB 48 Kevin Faulk NE/7

171 161 -10 RB 49 Marcel Shipp Ari/6

185 177 -8 RB 50 Brandon Jacobs NYG/5

190 199 9 RB 51 William Green Cle/4

195 236 41 RB 52 Ladell Betts Was/3

201 187 -14 RB 53 Anthony Thomas Dal/9

204 192 -12 RB 54 Moe Williams Min/5

209 212 3 RB 55 Vernand Morency Hou/3

216 133 -83 RB 56 LaBrandon Toefield Jac/7

221 270 49 RB 57 Tony Fisher GB/6

228 174 -54 RB 58 Dominic Rhodes Ind/8

234 153 -81 RB 59 Najeh Davenport GB/6

242 270 28 RB 60 Shawn Bryson Det/3

245 145 -100 RB 61 Frank Gore SF/6

250 162 -88 RB 62 Willie Parker Pit/4

252 270 18 RB 63 Zack Crockett Oak/5

256 270 14 RB 64 Justin Fargas Oak/5

260 211 -49 RB 65 Chris Perry Cin/10

263 270 7 RB 66 Greg Jones Jac/7

268 130 -138 RB 67 Stephen Davis Car/7

271 270 -1 RB 68 Shaud Williams Buf/9

277 270 -7 RB 69 Adrian Peterson Chi/4

281 270 -11 RB 70 Alvin Pearman Jac/7

287 270 -17 RB 71 Maurice Hicks SF/6

293 197 -96 RB 72 Ron Dayne Den/9

299 253 -46 RB 73 Michael Turner SD/10

304 270 -34 RB 74 Antowain Smith NO/10

309 231 -78 RB 75 Maurice Morris Sea/8

30 31 1 TE 1 Tony Gonzalez KC/5

40 35 -5 TE 2 Antonio Gates SD/10

51 53 2 TE 3 Jason Witten Dal/9

65 64 -1 TE 4 Jeremy Shockey NYG/5

79 69 -10 TE 5 Todd Heap Bal/3

84 65 -19 TE 6 Alge Crumpler Atl/8

99 82 -17 TE 7 Dallas Clark Ind/8

101 99 -2 TE 8 Randy McMichael Mia/4

111 156 45 TE 9 Chris Cooley Was/3

119 116 -3 TE 10 Eric Johnson SF/6

127 111 -16 TE 11 L.J. Smith Phi/6

133 128 -5 TE 12 Jermaine Wiggins Min/5

140 216 76 TE 13 Jerramy Stevens Sea/8

145 173 28 TE 14 Marcus Pollard Det/3

151 141 -10 TE 15 Bubba Franks GB/6

155 140 -15 TE 16 Jeb Putzier Den/9

160 160 0 TE 17 Doug Jolley NYJ/8

164 195 31 TE 18 Ben Troupe Ten/10

173 270 97 TE 19 Aaron Shea Cle/4

181 270 89 TE 20 Erron Kinney Ten/10

187 175 -12 TE 21 Daniel Graham NE/7

189 270 81 TE 22 Stephen Alexander Den/9

196 157 -39 TE 23 Heath Miller Pit/4

202 270 68 TE 24 Courtney Anderson Oak/5

212 182 -30 TE 25 Mark Campbell Buf/9

222 270 48 TE 26 Itula Mili Sea/8

229 270 41 TE 27 Kris Mangum Car/7

235 270 35 TE 28 Desmond Clark Chi/4

244 270 26 TE 29 Kyle Brady Jac/7

249 210 -39 TE 30 Ben Watson NE/7

255 184 -71 TE 31 Jim Kleinsasser Min/5

261 270 9 TE 32 Shad Meier NO/10

266 270 4 TE 33 Steve Heiden Cle/4

272 270 -2 TE 34 Kris Wilson KC/5

278 176 -102 TE 35 Matt Schobel Cin/10

282 241 -41 TE 36 Alex Smith TB/7

288 225 -63 TE 37 Anthony Becht TB/7

294 270 -24 TE 38 Roland Williams StL/9

300 270 -30 TE 39 Ernie Conwell NO/10

310 270 -40 TE 40 Mike Seidman Car/7

9 13 4 WR 1 Randy Moss Oak/5

19 19 0 WR 2 Torry Holt StL/9

21 23 2 WR 3 Marvin Harrison Ind/8

23 25 2 WR 4 Chad Johnson Cin/10

25 22 -3 WR 5 Terrell Owens Phi/6

26 29 3 WR 6 Joe Horn NO/10

28 28 0 WR 7 Javon Walker GB/6

29 30 1 WR 8 Andre Johnson Hou/3

31 51 20 WR 9 Drew Bennett Ten/10

32 32 0 WR 10 Reggie Wayne Ind/8

33 36 3 WR 11 Darrell Jackson Sea/8

35 33 -2 WR 12 Hines Ward Pit/4

36 37 1 WR 13 Nate Burleson Min/5

41 40 -1 WR 14 Roy Williams Det/3

43 43 0 WR 15 Michael Clayton TB/7

45 59 14 WR 16 Donald Driver GB/6

46 50 4 WR 17 Anquan Boldin Ari/6

48 41 -7 WR 18 Steve Smith Car/7

49 56 7 WR 19 Laveranues Coles NYJ/8

54 66 12 WR 19 Isaac Bruce StL/9

57 61 4 WR 20 Larry Fitzgerald Ari/6

61 73 12 WR 21 Jimmy Smith Jac/7

62 58 -4 WR 22 Jerry Porter Oak/5

63 74 11 WR 23 Ashley Lelie Den/9

67 79 12 WR 24 Deion Branch NE/7

68 95 27 WR 25 Rod Smith Den/9

70 70 0 WR 26 Chris Chambers Mia/4

72 85 13 WR 27 Lee Evans Buf/9

73 84 11 WR 28 Eric Moulds Buf/9

74 86 12 WR 29 Plaxico Burress NYG/5

77 88 11 WR 30 Muhsin Muhammad Chi/4

80 102 22 WR 31 Eddie Kennison KC/5

81 72 -9 WR 32 Derrick Mason Bal/3

85 101 16 WR 33 Santana Moss Was/3

88 106 18 WR 34 T.J. Houshmandzadeh Cin/10

89 144 55 WR 35 David Givens NE/7

91 131 40 WR 36 Keyshawn Johnson Dal/9

94 117 23 WR 37 Donte Stallworth NO/10

97 146 49 WR 38 Antonio Bryant Cle/4

102 92 -10 WR 39 Brandon Stokley Ind/8

103 135 32 WR 40 Brandon Lloyd SF/6

107 137 30 WR 41 Justin McCareins NYJ/8

110 108 -2 WR 42 Charles Rogers Det/3

112 120 8 WR 43 Keary Colbert Car/7

117 190 73 WR 44 Reggie Williams Jac/7

121 139 18 WR 45 Amani Toomer NYG/5

122 186 64 WR 46 Michael Jenkins Atl/8

128 270 142 WR 47 Dennis Northcutt Cle/4

129 193 64 WR 48 Joey Galloway TB/7

136 206 70 WR 49 Bobby Engram Sea/8

138 136 -2 WR 50 Travis Taylor Min/5

142 125 -17 WR 51 Keenan McCardell SD/10

147 217 70 WR 52 David Patten Was/3

152 201 49 WR 53 Reche Caldwell SD/10

156 181 25 WR 54 Greg Lewis Phi/6

158 124 -34 WR 55 Braylon Edwards Cle/4

165 204 39 WR 56 Terry Glenn Dal/9

172 151 -21 WR 57 Tyrone Calico Ten/10

176 200 24 WR 58 Rod Gardner Car/7

180 239 59 WR 59 Marty Booker Mia/4

183 252 69 WR 60 Arnaz Battle SF/6

188 147 -41 WR 61 Antwaan Randle El Pit/4

192 227 35 WR 62 Samie Parker KC/5

197 270 73 WR 63 Jabar Gaffney Hou/3

205 270 65 WR 64 Cedrick Wilson Pit/4

210 163 -47 WR 65 Kevin Curtis StL/9

217 270 53 WR 66 Quincy Morgan Dal/9

223 142 -81 WR 67 Mike Williams Det/3

230 270 40 WR 68 Eric Parker SD/10

236 179 -57 WR 69 Matt Jones Jac/7

243 249 6 WR 70 Robert Ferguson GB/6

246 203 -43 WR 71 Ronald Curry Oak/5

251 270 19 WR 72 Bryant Johnson Ari/6

257 154 -103 WR 73 Troy Williamson Min/5

262 270 8 WR 74 Corey Bradford Hou/3

267 188 -79 WR 75 Mark Clayton Bal/3

269 270 1 WR 76 Ike Hilliard TB/7

273 270 -3 WR 77 Shaun McDonald StL/9

279 270 -9 WR 78 Brandon Jones Ten/10

283 270 -13 WR 79 Clarence Moore Bal/3

289 270 -19 WR 80 Wayne Chrebet NYJ/8

290 245 -45 WR 81 Roddy White Atl/8

295 270 -25 WR 82 Mark Bradley Chi/4

301 219 -82 WR 83 David Boston Mia/4

305 270 -35 WR 84 Kevin Johnson Det/3

311 222 -89 WR 85 Reggie Brown Phi/6

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

thanks.

 

[bagger.]

Good dialogue.  Hucks you are right.  You have to tweak the projections or what fun is it. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

he didn't say tweak. he said do your own.

 

[David Yudkin]

I think the only valuable element to such an exercise would be to stack up our projections vs several others.  i believe there is some sort of comparison done amoungt different sites, but I don't think it's as comprehensive as some may be yearning for here.

If we were the only data point, would being "fairly close" 47% of the time really mean anything?  I would suppose that if other sites were "fairly close" 32% of the time than we could have done "better."

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I disagree. Maybe you do much better STD DEV for WRs than you do RBs.There is a lot of value to only looking at FBGs hit rate regardless of what other sites do.

Essentially all the OP is asking is for FBG to hold its projections to be accountable and explain why you did or did not do well across certain positions.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Then you are going to have to track down the main players (Dodds, Woods, maybe Gray and Drinen and a couple others) for the projections because most of the staff are not involved in the official FBG projections. I can't speak to the process, rationale, the projections or the outcomes as I was not involved.And this is not to say that it is an elite group with no input from others. There were numerous times I spoke up to Dodds et al about projections that seemed a bit off. Sometimes they amended them, sometimes they didn't. Overall, I think most of the time as a data set they are pretty good, but most people will have varying opinions on players to begin with so there will always be topics for debate.

 

[tytyty]

Right Bagger

 

[tytyty]

Let's make this easier. Does anyone have the week before the season FBG projections? Take that and line it up to the end of the season. Then we can draw our own conclusions and debate it on here.

 

[David Yudkin]

If you are saying that not all players in the projections are highly scrutinized I think people should know that ahead of time. Maybe asterisk the players you don't feel are worth the time.

This is true for me personally but not for the entire staff and certainly not for the projections (remember, I don't do them for the site, and I don't put out my own projections).In my mind, if I have laborious time invested in certian players, I would hope to be closer than the average bear in the final outcome.To better clarify, I get emails/PM all the time asking for a best guess as to how PLAYER X will do this upcoming season. I will normally give a best guess, but that's not the same of 4 hours of research on a single guy and coming up with a well-conceived conclusion.I do not have the time to spend 4 hours on every player looking into health, stats, team personnel changes, historical trends, tendancies, coaching changes, schedules, depth charts, etc. for every single guy in the league. I wish I did, but it's just not feasible for me to do that. Even as FBG staff, it's still A HOBBY.

 

[tytyty]

This is was happened the last two years I tried to get this done. Can you possibly do what we have asked and then talk about the nature of making projections? What has happened in the past is the issue is debated until it goes away if it is a good idea or not. Let's see it and go from there.

 

[bagger.]

I think the only valuable element to such an exercise would be to stack up our projections vs several others.  i believe there is some sort of comparison done amoungt different sites, but I don't think it's as comprehensive as some may be yearning for here.

If we were the only data point, would being "fairly close" 47% of the time really mean anything?  I would suppose that if other sites were "fairly close" 32% of the time than we could have done "better."

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I disagree. Maybe you do much better STD DEV for WRs than you do RBs.There is a lot of value to only looking at FBGs hit rate regardless of what other sites do.

Essentially all the OP is asking is for FBG to hold its projections to be accountable and explain why you did or did not do well across certain positions.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Then you are going to have to track down the main players (Dodds, Woods, maybe Gray and Drinen and a couple others) for the projections because most of the staff are not involved in the official FBG projections. I can't speak to the process, rationale, the projections or the outcomes as I was not involved.And this is not to say that it is an elite group with no input from others. There were numerous times I spoke up to Dodds et al about projections that seemed a bit off. Sometimes they amended them, sometimes they didn't. Overall, I think most of the time as a data set they are pretty good, but most people will have varying opinions on players to begin with so there will always be topics for debate.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think FBG does a fine job of projections as well. There would be value to me for someone who does their own projections if FBG does significantly better on a certain position than I do to learn what I could improve upon.

 

[Bada Bing]

The fact is everyone loves to point out when they were right but if they aren't then all you hear is crickets.

 

[FFLMASTER]

this may help as of august 9th last years projection for qbs:

1 Peyton Manning Ind/8 384

2 Daunte Culpepper Min/5 362

3 Donovan McNabb Phi/6 330

4 Marc Bulger StL/9 317

5 Kerry Collins Oak/5 308

6 Michael Vick Atl/8 296

7 Jake Plummer Den/9 291

8 Trent Green KC/5 290

9 Aaron Brooks NO/10 285

10 Brett Favre GB/6 282

11 Tom Brady NE/7 279

12 Matt Hasselbeck Sea/8 279

13 Carson Palmer Cin/10 278

14 Drew Brees SD/10 274

15 Steve McNair Ten/10 269

16 Jake Delhomme Car/7 266

17 David Carr Hou/3 266

18 Byron Leftwich Jac/7 264

19 Chad Pennington NYJ/8 263

20 Ben Roethlisberger Pit/4 239

21 Brian Griese TB/7 238

22 Joey Harrington Det/3 234

23 Kyle Boller Bal/3 233

24 Eli Manning NYG/5 230

25 Patrick Ramsey Was/3 221

26 Alex Smith SF/6 221

27 Rex Grossman Chi/4 211

28 Kurt Warner Ari/6 210

29 J.P. Losman Buf/9 209

30 Drew Bledsoe Dal/9 209

31 Trent Dilfer Cle/4 191

32 Gus Frerotte Mia/4 182

33 Jeff Garcia Det/3 57

34 Josh McCown Ari/6 34

this was on wcoff point system

 

[FFLMASTER]

here are the rbs:

1 LaDainian Tomlinson SD/10 301

2 Priest Holmes KC/5 282

3 Shaun Alexander Sea/8 273

4 Deuce McAllister NO/10 258

5 Edgerrin James Ind/8 255

6 Domanick Davis Hou/3 243

7 Clinton Portis Was/3 242

8 Tiki Barber NYG/5 240

9 Willis McGahee Buf/9 239

10 Corey Dillon NE/7 237

11 Brian Westbrook Phi/6 227

12 Kevin Jones Det/3 223

13 Julius Jones Dal/9 222

14 Curtis Martin NYJ/8 219

15 Rudi Johnson Cin/10 217

16 Jamal Lewis Bal/3 210

17 Steven Jackson StL/9 203

18 Ahman Green GB/6 196

19 J.J. Arrington Ari/6 190

20 Lamont Jordan Oak/5 181

21 Tatum Bell Den/9 179

22 Michael Bennett Min/5 173

23 Warrick Dunn Atl/8 167

24 Carnell Williams TB/7 151

25 Thomas Jones Chi/4 150

26 Chris Brown Ten/10 149

27 Kevan Barlow SF/6 149

28 DeShaun Foster Car/7 142

29 Fred Taylor Jac/7 136

30 Larry Johnson KC/5 133

31 Jerome Bettis Pit/4 132

32 Lee Suggs Cle/4 128

33 Ronnie Brown Mia/4 128

34 T.J. Duckett Atl/8 117

35 Cedric Benson Chi/4 115

36 Reuben Droughns Cle/4 108

37 Duce Staley Pit/4 104

38 Mike Anderson Den/9 95

39 LaBrandon Toefield Jac/7 90

40 Michael Pittman TB/7 87

41 Marshall Faulk StL/9 83

42 Eric Shelton Car/7 80

43 Kevin Faulk NE/7 80

44 Ricky Williams Mia/4 79

45 Derrick Blaylock NYJ/8 76

46 Travis Henry Ten/10 73

47 Chester Taylor Bal/3 66

48 Najeh Davenport GB/6 65

49 Correll Buckhalter Phi/6 59

50 Moe Williams Min/5 53

51 Tony Fisher GB/6 52

52 Zack Crockett Oak/5 52

53 Shawn Bryson Det/3 52

54 Verron Haynes Pit/4 52

55 Ladell Betts Was/3 51

56 Anthony Thomas Dal/9 51

57 Mike Alstott TB/7 49

58 Dominic Rhodes Ind/8 47

59 Brandon Jacobs NYG/5 46

60 Frank Gore SF/6 39

61 Jerald Sowell NYJ/8 38

62 Alvin Pearman Jac/7 38

63 Maurice Hicks SF/6 35

64 Chris Perry Cin/10 34

65 Stephen Davis Car/7 34

66 Shaud Williams Buf/9 34

67 Lamar Gordon Mia/4 32

68 Mewelde Moore Min/5 31

69 Jonathan Wells Hou/3 30

 

[FFLMASTER]

the wrs:

1 Randy Moss Oak/5 227

2 Terrell Owens Phi/6 205

3 Torry Holt StL/9 205

4 Chad Johnson Cin/10 204

5 Marvin Harrison Ind/8 200

6 Reggie Wayne Ind/8 187

7 Joe Horn NO/10 184

8 Javon Walker GB/6 181

9 Darrell Jackson Sea/8 178

10 Andre Johnson Hou/3 174

11 Drew Bennett Ten/10 170

12 Roy Williams Det/3 159

13 Hines Ward Pit/4 157

14 Michael Clayton TB/7 155

15 Nate Burleson Min/5 151

16 Isaac Bruce StL/9 146

17 Steve Smith Car/7 145

18 Lee Evans Buf/9 144

19 Jimmy Smith Jac/7 143

20 Ashley Lelie Den/9 143

21 Chris Chambers Mia/4 143

22 Donald Driver GB/6 142

23 Anquan Boldin Ari/6 142

24 Larry Fitzgerald Ari/6 139

25 Laveranues Coles NYJ/8 137

26 Rod Smith Den/9 135

27 Jerry Porter Oak/5 133

28 Deion Branch NE/7 133

29 Eric Moulds Buf/9 132

30 Donte Stallworth NO/10 131

31 Muhsin Muhammad Chi/4 130

32 Eddie Kennison KC/5 129

33 T.J. Houshmandzadeh Cin/10 127

34 Derrick Mason Bal/3 126

35 Plaxico Burress NYG/5 126

36 Santana Moss Was/3 124

37 David Givens NE/7 122

38 Keary Colbert Car/7 120

39 Keyshawn Johnson Dal/9 115

40 Amani Toomer NYG/5 113

41 Justin McCareins NYJ/8 112

42 Brandon Lloyd SF/6 111

43 Brandon Stokley Ind/8 106

44 Antwaan Randle El Pit/4 101

45 Mike Williams Det/3 100

46 Keenan McCardell SD/10 91

47 Antonio Bryant Cle/4 89

48 Bernard Berrian Chi/4 89

49 Ronald Curry Oak/5 88

50 Reche Caldwell SD/10 88

51 Joey Galloway TB/7 87

52 Jabar Gaffney Hou/3 86

53 Charles Rogers Det/3 85

54 Troy Williamson Min/5 84

55 Andre Davis Cle/4 84

56 Quincy Morgan Dal/9 80

57 Michael Jenkins Atl/8 80

58 Kevin Curtis StL/9 78

59 Terry Glenn Dal/9 77

60 Brandon Jones Ten/10 76

61 Samie Parker KC/5 76

62 Darius Watts Den/9 75

63 Braylon Edwards Cle/4 73

64 Marcus Robinson Min/5 73

65 Ike Hilliard TB/7 73

66 Reggie Williams Jac/7 73

67 Marty Booker Mia/4 72

68 Justin Gage Chi/4 71

69 David Patten Was/3 70

70 Eric Parker SD/10 68

71 Robert Ferguson GB/6 67

72 Peter Warrick Cin/10 66

73 Mark Clayton Bal/3 65

74 Shaun McDonald StL/9 64

75 Greg Lewis Phi/6 64

76 Bobby Engram Sea/8 63

77 Clarence Moore Bal/3 62

78 Arnaz Battle SF/6 62

79 Joe Jurevicius Sea/8 61

80 Rod Gardner Car/7 60

81 Bryant Johnson Ari/6 60

82 Peerless Price Atl/8 59

83 David Boston Mia/4 58

84 Cedrick Wilson Pit/4 56

85 Tyrone Calico Ten/10 53

86 Troy Edwards Jac/7 52

87 Jerome Pathon Sea/8 52

88 Dez White Atl/8 52

89 Doug Gabriel Oak/5 50

90 Wayne Chrebet NYJ/8 50

91 David Terrell NE/7 49

92 Dennis Northcutt Cle/4 49

93 Johnnie Morton SF/6 47

94 Corey Bradford Hou/3 47

95 Reggie Brown Phi/6 45

96 James Thrash Was/3 44

97 Travis Taylor Min/5 44

98 Derick Armstrong Hou/3 43

99 Kelly Campbell Min/5 43

100 Ernest Wilford Jac/7 40

101 Ricky Proehl Car/7 40

102 Bobby Wade Chi/4 37

 

[FFLMASTER]

and the tes:



1 Tony Gonzalez KC/5 156

2 Antonio Gates SD/10 146

3 Jason Witten Dal/9 123

4 Jeremy Shockey NYG/5 113

5 Alge Crumpler Atl/8 103

6 Dallas Clark Ind/8 102

7 Todd Heap Bal/3 93

8 Eric Johnson SF/6 84

9 L.J. Smith Phi/6 77

10 Jeb Putzier Den/9 75

11 Randy McMichael Mia/4 73

12 Chris Cooley Was/3 71

13 Jerramy Stevens Sea/8 65

14 Marcus Pollard Det/3 60

15 Ben Troupe Ten/10 60

16 Erron Kinney Ten/10 59

17 Bubba Franks GB/6 58

18 Daniel Graham NE/7 56

19 Jermaine Wiggins Min/5 52

20 Steve Heiden Cle/4 48

21 Mike Seidman Car/7 47

22 Doug Jolley NYJ/8 45

23 Heath Miller Pit/4 43

24 Courtney Anderson Oak/5 38

25 Mark Campbell Buf/9 37

26 Alex Smith TB/7 34

27 Jim Kleinsasser Min/5 34

28 Kris Wilson KC/5 32

29 Aaron Shea Cle/4 32

30 George Wrighster Jac/7 32

31 Matt Schobel Cin/10 32

32 Ben Watson NE/7 32

33 Kyle Brady Jac/7 30

 

[FFLMASTER]

now the above posts are what my excel spreadsheet shows as the cheatsheets for players as of 8/9/05

i know these might have changed throughout the month and all the way till the draft.

hope that helps

 

[tytyty]

Thanks FFL. Yeah if you look at the top 10 WR. Ouch but there are reasons for that. If we could have the Brass analyze it and make a feature of it, it would be awesome.

 

[Joe T]

The people are talking!!!  The injury example on the original post was just that.  I am more interested in why did Player A get Projected so high then bam he did not do well or vice versa.  Don't get stuck on the injury thing.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Willis McGahee down?

 

[Joe T]

FF Index does a quantified comparison every year of 10/12 sites' rankings...FBG is one of the parties, so your best bet is to look there. 

The value of FBG doesn't lie in the projections, it's the tools it provides.  Ask any of the sharks around here, almost all of them use their own projections, but pay for the subscription for the tools/information.

I suppose if you're a novice and you're drafting straight from projections that is where you could find value here at FBG, but if you're serious about winning wouldn't you want a second opinion from another source anyhow?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If you're serious about winning... you should just concentrate on making your own correct and not worrying about FBG's projections.

 

[bagger.]

Thanks FFL.  Yeah if you look at the top 10 WR.  Ouch but there are reasons for that.  If we could have the Brass analyze it and make a feature of it, it would be awesome.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't think Brass Sack wants to do all that work.