FBG Rookie IDP Rankings (1 Viewer)

[Jene Bramel]

Will be rolling out slowly over the next week.

First pass from me posted. Still very much a work in progress. Anticipate moving the top four around a bit as the summer moves along and there'll definitely be some movement in the group outside the top ten.

 

[jgb95]

thanks

 

[bcr8f]

What do you think of Robert James Atlanta? Could he push Nicholas for WLB?

 

[Chaos Commish]

Will be rolling out slowly over the next week.

First pass from me posted. Still very much a work in progress. Anticipate moving the top four around a bit as the summer moves along and there'll definitely be some movement in the group outside the top ten.

Never mind moving the top four around, I'm wondering if Dan Connor will make the top 40 by preseason.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

 

[Al Toon's Mole]

How much of a hit in numbers does Ernie Sims take now with Dizon being added into the fold? Are his days as a strong #2 LB over? Or do you see enough production to go around for them?

 

[Jene Bramel]

How much of a hit in numbers does Ernie Sims take now with Dizon being added into the fold? Are his days as a strong #2 LB over? Or do you see enough production to go around for them?

I don't think Dizon has a major impact on Sims. His major problem will come when and if the Lions defense improves enough to get off the field regularly or the offense keeps them off the field. The vast majority of Sims' value comes from his tackle numbers -- he's had one sack, one INT and three passes defended in two seasons as a starter. The Tampa-2 will give him tackle chances, but when the overall number of chances drops he doesn't have the peripherals to hold his value. Dizon may take a couple tackles away from him over a full season, but he's not the kind of impact player that changes the overall fortunes of the defense.I'd be more worried if the Lions control the ball on offense and find a pass rush to help the two new corner acquisitions. If that happens, I think Sims takes a hit this year.

 

[ADP]

Jonathan Goff?? He needs to be on that list before some of those other guys. Future MLB of the NYG.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Jonathan Goff?? He needs to be on that list before some of those other guys. Future MLB of the NYG.

Goff got bumped after CC pointed out Connor wasn't there. The bottom 20-25 are in loose tiers until minicamps for me. Pierce is signed through 2010, though, so his future may be a long way off. Right now, I'm not sure I'd be excited drafting anyone outside the top 30 even with deep rosters and taxi squads. I pulled 42 players from the database that looked like they had some long term potential -- Goff is definitely one of them. I'm interested to see whether he or Kehl ends up competing with Wilkinson.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I like Goff a lot more than most, but the situation requires patience which is never safe, so I don't have a beef with him in loose tiers.

I notice Godfrey on your list. Are you projecting him to FS? I'm pretty sure that's what he's been drafted to play.

 

[Jene Bramel]

I like Goff a lot more than most, but the situation requires patience which is never safe, so I don't have a beef with him in loose tiers.I notice Godfrey on your list. Are you projecting him to FS? I'm pretty sure that's what he's been drafted to play.

I can't remember if I saw confirmation or not yesterday, but given the way Fox has stubbornly stuck with Gamble as a starter and the fact that Terrence Holt isn't very good, I was fully expecting Godfrey to land at FS, too.I'm hoping to get the deeper tiers settled within the week.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

rankings up

 

[jgb95]

Hey Sig

With Rivers @ #5 is that as an OLB or ILB?

Where do you see him player with that ranking?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Hey SigWith Rivers @ #5 is that as an OLB or ILB?Where do you see him player with that ranking?

5 reflects that uncertainty. at MLB, he'd be 3

 

[Rozelle]

Jene/Bloom these rankings are based on what you think they'll do this year ... right?

 

[Jene Bramel]

Jene/Bloom these rankings are based on what you think they'll do this year ... right?

For the most part, yes. If it's close, the rankings reflect the better immediate talent. If there's clear big future upside, I'll rank them ahead of a player who may do a little better this season within the same tier (e.g. Tavares Gooden over Kenny Phillips and Chris Long). The guys who aren't likely to do much immediately (20 and later this year for me) are loosely grouped into tiers by position at the end of my list pending minicamp quotes, depth chart information, etc.

 

[Rozelle]

K ... Thanks

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Jene/Bloom these rankings are based on what you think they'll do this year ... right?

no long haul - for dynasty rookie drafts, where you are drafting for more than just this year

 

[Slinger]

Thanks for the list!

I'm trying to get a feel for Tavares Gooden of Baltimore. Where would you rank him with Michael Okwo and Quincy Black, two other young LB's who are waiting for their turn.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Thanks for the list!I'm trying to get a feel for Tavares Gooden of Baltimore. Where would you rank him with Michael Okwo and Quincy Black, two other young LB's who are waiting for their turn.

Each has a value based solely on upside right now.Gooden -- potential all-around athletic talent to be mentored by Ray Lewis as his replacement at MLB.Okwo -- questionable talent stuck behind Urlacher and Briggs for the foreseeable future.Black -- interesting talent with unknown opportunity as there's at least as good a chance he'll play SLB as WLB right now.For me, it's Gooden >>> Black >> Okwo.

 

[Rozelle]

Jene/Bloom these rankings are based on what you think they'll do this year ... right?

no long haul - for dynasty rookie drafts, where you are drafting for more than just this year

K... Thanks

 

[Slinger]

Thanks for the list!

I'm trying to get a feel for Tavares Gooden of Baltimore. Where would you rank him with Michael Okwo and Quincy Black, two other young LB's who are waiting for their turn.

Each has a value based solely on upside right now.Gooden -- potential all-around athletic talent to be mentored by Ray Lewis as his replacement at MLB.

Okwo -- questionable talent stuck behind Urlacher and Briggs for the foreseeable future.

Black -- interesting talent with unknown opportunity as there's at least as good a chance he'll play SLB as WLB right now.

For me, it's Gooden >>> Black >> Okwo.

Thanks for the quick response. I'm a Bucs homer, so I can say that Black was on the field a lot towards the end of the season. I forget if it was because of injury or because Gruden was sitting all his starters on both sides of the ball. Either way, Black was out there and looked pretty good, so there's a glimmer of hope for him.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Thanks for the list!

I'm trying to get a feel for Tavares Gooden of Baltimore. Where would you rank him with Michael Okwo and Quincy Black, two other young LB's who are waiting for their turn.

Each has a value based solely on upside right now.Gooden -- potential all-around athletic talent to be mentored by Ray Lewis as his replacement at MLB.

Okwo -- questionable talent stuck behind Urlacher and Briggs for the foreseeable future.

Black -- interesting talent with unknown opportunity as there's at least as good a chance he'll play SLB as WLB right now.

For me, it's Gooden >>> Black >> Okwo.

Thanks for the quick response. I'm a Bucs homer, so I can say that Black was on the field a lot towards the end of the season. I forget if it was because of injury or because Gruden was sitting all his starters on both sides of the ball. Either way, Black was out there and looked pretty good, so there's a glimmer of hope for him.

I like Black a lot. Unfortunately, I got to see only a few replayed snaps late in the season. I didn't notice him much in the playoff game; I think Nece was playing for June. Was he spelling Ruud, who had been dinged most of the second half, in the middle?For now, it's just a lot easier to project Gooden as an every MLB in 2009 than it is to project Black. Since Gooden is arguably a better talent, he tops the list.

 

[Slinger]

Since Gooden is arguably a better talent, he tops the list.

Well if that's the case then I can definitely see why you're high on him given that he'll be behind Ray Lewis. You're right in that Nece played in the playoffs for June. Not sure if Black played much in that game versus the Giants.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

A few questions:

- I realize that Mayo is talented, but have NE LBs ever really put up numbers worthy of a #1 or 3 ranking? Does Mayo have enough upside to justify your rankings? Will he be consistent in BB's scheme?

- Will the Rams play a 4-3? If so, why do you see Long outperforming Harvey? If not, then why would Long be ranked so high?

- What's the story on Beau Bell and Philip Wheeler? Your rankings are decently far apart for these guys. What drives your opinion of their prospects?

 

[Jene Bramel]

- I realize that Mayo is talented, but have NE LBs ever really put up numbers worthy of a #1 or 3 ranking? Does Mayo have enough upside to justify your rankings? Will he be consistent in BB's scheme?

The case for Jared Mayo

- Will the Rams play a 4-3? If so, why do you see Long outperforming Harvey? If not, then why would Long be ranked so high?

The Rams will play a 4-3. Long is technically better than Harvey and should get more snaps sooner. I think Long's ceiling is 45-10, while Harvey may not reach those tackle numbers. In the FBG scoring system, I think Long is slightly better. The difference between 10 and 11 for me isn't much, though, and I've no argument with those who think Harvey can grow into a solid run defender.

- What's the story on Beau Bell and Philip Wheeler? Your rankings are decently far apart for these guys. What drives your opinion of their prospects?

I think Bell will eventually be very good. He's likely to get on the field sooner than Wheeler and easier to project into a favorable IDP role. I'm still debating my later tiers and I like Wheeler, which means Wheeler may move up considerably. It won't be into the top 15, but he'll probably come up to where Geno Hayes is once I'm certain where he slots in Indy. Most of the rumors are suggesting MLB or WLB, but I think the SLB slot is likely to be open to him soonest.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

my rankings have been added.

 

[Rozelle]

What do you think of Robert James Atlanta? Could he push Nicholas for WLB?

He needed to be drafted by Cover-2 team. Probably lacks the speed and coverage skills to play safety and too light for LB. Durability somewhat of a concern.I suppose if he can bulk up, could have a shot in the future at Will. The one thing he has going for him over Nicholas ... he was drafted by the new regime.

He should be a fun guy to watch on special teams.

I think CC watch's alot of the Pac 10, maybe he will chime in.

 

[Chaos Commish]

James is a poor man's Jon Alston. When I saw that pick I didn't consider him a threat to Nicholas. I considered it a special teams pick. James plays really fast and he had some nice games last year. It was the only year he played at an impressive level. My guess is he's in a fight for a job and has to prove it on specials.

I think the new regime will fall in love with Nicholas (and Lofton, of course). Those two should have long careers together on a solid LB crew with Boley. Brooking will probably keep Nicholas on the bench for a year. There I said it, but long term this is a nice group of LBs. If Nicholas gets dropped in your leagues, he's worth storing. He got sniped from me in a league (based on my own reviews) and I'm halfway hoping Brooking gets the weakside and Nicholas goes back to the bench for a little while. He won't stay there. But maybe I can grab him.

 

[Rovers]

Great list!

Jene, of course as a rabid Jets fan, I have high hopes for Gholston, but your ranking drags down his overall significantly. In fact, your ranking for Gholston differs from the others more than any other relative player ranking on the list. Given the sack heavy scoring system, I think Gholston will be borderline top ten.... and then in contrast, Mayo you have as your #1 rookie IDP. That seems to be a vast disparity... is that system or talent based thinking? Do you think Gholston will be a situational player? ...and Mayo a 4 down LB?

I like Dizon more than you do as well.... if he starts at MLB, surely he will put up better numbers than Lenon did last year, and that makes him my likely #1, actually. That is situationally based thinking. The Lions D will be on the field a lot again in 2008. I also like Dan Connor if he adjusts to the NFL, and I think he will.

Atlanta seems to have an uncertain, and crowded LB corp.... that makes Lofton riskier than where you fellas have him ranked. Of all of these LB's, only Gholston is a sure starter IMO. Why people think he will share with BT is a head scratcher to me. He'll be the every down starter opposite Thomas by week one. OK, stickin my neck out there a bit, but Mangini and Tannenbaum will want instant results, despite the rookie mistakes, that they might get from Gholston.

The Jets drafted what they think is a play maker, a game turner, with Gholston, and he'll be given every opportunity to either proove or disproove that evaluation. As for the rap that he takes plays off (a negative almost never heard until AFTER the draft) is not likely to be a problem, as Rhodes and Harris will not allow it, not to mention Mangini.

Just curious why the disparity between Mayo and Gholston in particular. I think Mayo may be worked in more slowly than Gholston.... but my immediate top rook is Dizon.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Thanks Rovers.

I've made no secret of my bias against 3-4 OLBs. I see even the best of them as inconsistent week-to-week options in all but the most big play oriented scoring systems. FBG's official scoring system has a sack-to-tackle ratio of 2.66:1, well below the 3.5:1 that would be "neutral".

In that scoring system, there were two 3-4 OLBs in the top 25 in 2007:

6 James Harrison 77 solos, 8.5 sacks, 10 FF/FR

22 Demarcus Ware 60 solos, 14 sacks, 4 FF/FR

Shawne Merriman finished 38th in 15 games with 54 solos and 12.5 sacks.

In 2006:

20 Shawne Merriman 49 solos, 16.5 sacks, 5 FF/FR(12 games)

22 Demarcus Ware 59 solos, 12 sacks, 6 FF/FR

So, for me, it becomes a simple matter of upside. A 3-4 OLB has to have a ridiculously good statistical season to crack the top 25. James Harrison did so last year on the strength of a huge tackle season. Ware and Merriman are two of the best rush LBs in recent memory and reasonable all-around talents on the field every down. They barely keep themselves within the LB2 tier despite getting double digit sacks -- in this scoring system.

Gholston would have to make 65 solos and 12 sacks to have any chance at reaching the top 20 overall linebackers in this system. And he'd have to do it on a yearly basis. And he'd have to be consistent on a week-to-week basis to have real value. Last season, people were drafting Shawne Merriman as a LB1 in many leagues with similar scoring systems. In raw terms (though I'll grant they don't tell the whole story), he had no more value than Napoleon Harris.

I can respect an argument that Gholston = Merriman/Ware. But I think it's a much more difficult argument than Gholston = Wimbley/Lawson. I understand that the Jets drafted Gholston highly and that he looks like he could grow into an all-around talent. You may be correct that he'll see 60 snaps starting Week 1. But I think he'll have to be very special to succeed as an all-around LB after a single training camp. I like Gholston, but I'm not sure he's that caliber of player yet.

For those that think Gholston is a perennial 60-14 guy, I think he'd arguably slot just within the top 10. If you're in a scoring system with a better sack-to-tackle ratio then our default system 4.5:1 or higher, he belongs in the top ten and probably as high as 7. For those in deep leagues (start 4 LBs or 16 teamers), he belongs much higher for his upside as a big play LB3-4 behind a couple of consistent studs. None of those situations apply for my rank list, though.

Now, despite that entire argument, I switched some players around in the lesser tiers yesterday afternoon (notably Wheeler and Goff) and moved Gholston down a little farther than I'd realized. I think his upside warrants a ranking in a tier higher than Avril and Ellis. Small difference, but more correct.

With regard to Mayo, my argument for him can be found in this post.

As always, I appreciate it when folks challenge the rankings and opinions we have. Really makes me flesh out the argument in my head. It usually still makes sense, but it's not uncommon that I come to the realization that I'm a stubborn idiot.

 

[Zoomanji]

A 3-4 OLB has to have a ridiculously good statistical season to crack the top 25. James Harrison did so last year on the strength of a huge tackle season game (9 tackles, 3 forced Fumbles, Int, Fum rec, 1 PD and 3.5 sacks).

Take that game out and he's not even top 30

 

[bwolf]

In reference to "How much of a hit in numbers does Ernie Sims take now with Dizon being added into the fold? Are his days as a strong #2 LB over? Or do you see enough production to go around for them?"

I honestly don't believe Dizon negatively affects Sims at all. If anything, he just strengthens Detroit's overall defense. I'm seeing that Dizon will start in the middle, which could give him solid IDP potential, but he could move to the strong side if that doesn't work out. Here's where I read it...

http://thereis.nooffseason.com/index.php/o...d-rumors-2.html

 

[jgb95]

link doesn't work and the maini link doesn't work.

What's the web site link?

 

[carlos1984]

Jene

What do you think is going to happen in CLE with the arrival of Bell ?

Does this change the value of Leon ?

 

[Jene Bramel]

link doesn't work and the maini link doesn't work.What's the web site link?

Working okay for me from the link in the initial post. footballguys.com will take you to the home page, rankings are found under the Forecast tab.

 

[Jene Bramel]

JeneWhat do you think is going to happen in CLE with the arrival of Bell ? Does this change the value of Leon ?

Yes. They targeted a couple of linebackers in their pre-draft interviews and traded up to get Bell as their first pick. I would doubt DQJax is going anywhere and it isn't reassuring that Williams was never able to fully push Davis out of the base defensive packages. I don't know if it'll be this season, but Bell is probably at ILB by 2009 at the latest. Whether or not he'll be an every down defender is another issue.

 

[BearsFan]

Great list! Jene, of course as a rabid Jets fan, I have high hopes for Gholston, but your ranking drags down his overall significantly. In fact, your ranking for Gholston differs from the others more than any other relative player ranking on the list. Given the sack heavy scoring system, I think Gholston will be borderline top ten.... and then in contrast, Mayo you have as your #1 rookie IDP. That seems to be a vast disparity... is that system or talent based thinking? Do you think Gholston will be a situational player? ...and Mayo a 4 down LB? I like Dizon more than you do as well.... if he starts at MLB, surely he will put up better numbers than Lenon did last year, and that makes him my likely #1, actually. That is situationally based thinking. The Lions D will be on the field a lot again in 2008. I also like Dan Connor if he adjusts to the NFL, and I think he will. Atlanta seems to have an uncertain, and crowded LB corp.... that makes Lofton riskier than where you fellas have him ranked. Of all of these LB's, only Gholston is a sure starter IMO. Why people think he will share with BT is a head scratcher to me. He'll be the every down starter opposite Thomas by week one. OK, stickin my neck out there a bit, but Mangini and Tannenbaum will want instant results, despite the rookie mistakes, that they might get from Gholston. The Jets drafted what they think is a play maker, a game turner, with Gholston, and he'll be given every opportunity to either proove or disproove that evaluation. As for the rap that he takes plays off (a negative almost never heard until AFTER the draft) is not likely to be a problem, as Rhodes and Harris will not allow it, not to mention Mangini. Just curious why the disparity between Mayo and Gholston in particular. I think Mayo may be worked in more slowly than Gholston.... but my immediate top rook is Dizon.

OK. Can somebody please explain why you think Dizon will make a such a great MLB at his size?

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

http://blog.mlive.com/highlightreel/2008/0...ence_dizon.html

Detroit Lions head coach Rod Marinelli sat down for an interview on Sirius NFL Radio with Pat Kirwan and Tim Ryan. Marinelli discusses some of the thought process behind the Lions' picks, and talks about how he's hoping to utilize the players.

Q: Some have said Jordon Dizon was a reach. How does he fit into your defense? Talk about his skill set.

RM: We want to look at him at the Mike position, and also as the nickel Mike because he's really good in space. He's also got the ability to play the Sam backer. But we really want to see him inside. His instincts are great. He sees something and goes. Our philosophy in the draft was to err on the side of production with our picks.

Q: I heard Dizon had an I.V. at almost every game.

RM: I think he goes fast. *laughs* You sit in a room with him, and he just lights the room up with his energy and love for the game. Guys like that just always play well.

Q: If Dizon becomes the every-down Mike, how would you like to see the strong-side linebacker competition shake out?

RM: Well, you got Paris (Lenon). Paris has been there, too. He can play Sam. You got a guy like Alex Lewis going into that thing. So we can really upgrade, or if Jordon has to play Sam, we can do that too.

Q: How does Rod Marinelli stop and look at Jordon Dizon during this rookie mini-camp?

RM: First, we'll want to see how he processes information, taking things from the classroom to the field. And he's seemed like a quick study so far. Then introducing him to all our little patterns and drills – just playing Cover 2, and how you open up is different for these guys. The instincts, the awareness, the feel. We look at that. I think he's going to be excellent in coverage. He's got to learn the run fits. We know how his tempo's gonna be.

It's tough not to get excited about a rookie who figures to play as a 3-down MLB from day 1.

 

[BearsFan]

http://blog.mlive.com/highlightreel/2008/0...ence_dizon.html

Detroit Lions head coach Rod Marinelli sat down for an interview on Sirius NFL Radio with Pat Kirwan and Tim Ryan. Marinelli discusses some of the thought process behind the Lions' picks, and talks about how he's hoping to utilize the players.

Q: Some have said Jordon Dizon was a reach. How does he fit into your defense? Talk about his skill set.

RM: We want to look at him at the Mike position, and also as the nickel Mike because he's really good in space. He's also got the ability to play the Sam backer. But we really want to see him inside. His instincts are great. He sees something and goes. Our philosophy in the draft was to err on the side of production with our picks.

Q: I heard Dizon had an I.V. at almost every game.

RM: I think he goes fast. *laughs* You sit in a room with him, and he just lights the room up with his energy and love for the game. Guys like that just always play well.

Q: If Dizon becomes the every-down Mike, how would you like to see the strong-side linebacker competition shake out?

RM: Well, you got Paris (Lenon). Paris has been there, too. He can play Sam. You got a guy like Alex Lewis going into that thing. So we can really upgrade, or if Jordon has to play Sam, we can do that too.

Q: How does Rod Marinelli stop and look at Jordon Dizon during this rookie mini-camp?

RM: First, we'll want to see how he processes information, taking things from the classroom to the field. And he's seemed like a quick study so far. Then introducing him to all our little patterns and drills – just playing Cover 2, and how you open up is different for these guys. The instincts, the awareness, the feel. We look at that. I think he's going to be excellent in coverage. He's got to learn the run fits. We know how his tempo's gonna be.

It's tough not to get excited about a rookie who figures to play as a 3-down MLB from day 1.

Unfortunately, they didn't ask RM if there was any concern that Dizon might get totally blown away by blockers!

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Unfortunately, they didn't ask RM if there was any concern that Dizon might get totally blown away by blockers!

he's listed at 6', 229lbs and hasn't even had the benefits of NFL strength training. there have been plenty of successful MLBs of similar size in recent years.Zach Thomas (5'11", 228lbs), Mike Peterson (6'1", 235), and Jonathan Vilma (6'1", 230) are the first 3 that come to mind.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Unfortunately, they didn't ask RM if there was any concern that Dizon might get totally blown away by blockers!

he's listed at 6', 229lbs and hasn't even had the benefits of NFL strength training. there have been plenty of successful MLBs of similar size in recent years.Zach Thomas (5'11", 228lbs), Mike Peterson (6'1", 235), and Jonathan Vilma (6'1", 230) are the first 3 that come to mind.

Donnie Edwards was less than 230 at ILB for the Chargers. Odell Thurman and Will Witherspoon were relatively light 235s. Michael Boley has been holding up at around 230 on the strong side. The overlying point about size being an issue is well made, but it's important to realize that today's "undersized" backers are more athletic than those in the past. These guys can get away with their size if they can elude blockers and instinctively hit the appropriate gaps.By most accounts, Dizon has shown the ability to elude blockers and his big tackle numbers in college (regardless of competition) suggest a guy that knows how to get to the ball. We'll see if that translates to the big leagues.

 

[BearsFan]

Unfortunately, they didn't ask RM if there was any concern that Dizon might get totally blown away by blockers!

he's listed at 6', 229lbs and hasn't even had the benefits of NFL strength training. there have been plenty of successful MLBs of similar size in recent years.Zach Thomas (5'11", 228lbs), Mike Peterson (6'1", 235), and Jonathan Vilma (6'1", 230) are the first 3 that come to mind.

I've seen as low as 5'11" (FBG) and 225 (Rotoworld), but if he can generate the leverage of a Zach Thomas, I get your point.However, his nfl.com profile does cite numerous strength-related issues + in the Cover-2, he may not be able to drop and cover as effectively as needed.

 

[tex]

And let's not forget Mike Singletary at 6' 230 lbs.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Unfortunately, they didn't ask RM if there was any concern that Dizon might get totally blown away by blockers!

he's listed at 6', 229lbs and hasn't even had the benefits of NFL strength training. there have been plenty of successful MLBs of similar size in recent years.Zach Thomas (5'11", 228lbs), Mike Peterson (6'1", 235), and Jonathan Vilma (6'1", 230) are the first 3 that come to mind.

I've seen as low as 5'11" (FBG) and 225 (Rotoworld), but if he can generate the leverage of a Zach Thomas, I get your point.However, his nfl.com profile does cite numerous strength-related issues + in the Cover-2, he may not be able to drop and cover as effectively as needed.

same profile says this about him:

Physically, the squat and powerful Hawaiian more resembles Mike Singletary, Tom Jackson and Sam Mills, among the many cerebral, fiery and undersized linebackers who had long NFL careers than he does Brian Urlacher, who fits the ideal prototype. "Me being little, me being tiny, I've got the feet to make up for it," Dizon said. "I've got the will, I've got the heart and everything you ask for in a small player to do a big man's job."

seems like a very good athlete to me. I think he'll be a great fit in that defense, although I'd probably feel better if Shaun Rogers was still playing in front of him.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

My rankings are up now.

 

[bcr8f]

James is a poor man's Jon Alston. When I saw that pick I didn't consider him a threat to Nicholas. I considered it a special teams pick. James plays really fast and he had some nice games last year. It was the only year he played at an impressive level. My guess is he's in a fight for a job and has to prove it on specials. I think the new regime will fall in love with Nicholas (and Lofton, of course). Those two should have long careers together on a solid LB crew with Boley. Brooking will probably keep Nicholas on the bench for a year. There I said it, but long term this is a nice group of LBs. If Nicholas gets dropped in your leagues, he's worth storing. He got sniped from me in a league (based on my own reviews) and I'm halfway hoping Brooking gets the weakside and Nicholas goes back to the bench for a little while. He won't stay there. But maybe I can grab him.

Thanks.

 

[Rovers]

Thanks Rovers.

I've made no secret of my bias against 3-4 OLBs. I see even the best of them as inconsistent week-to-week options in all but the most big play oriented scoring systems. FBG's official scoring system has a sack-to-tackle ratio of 2.66:1, well below the 3.5:1 that would be "neutral".

In that scoring system, there were two 3-4 OLBs in the top 25 in 2007:

6 James Harrison 77 solos, 8.5 sacks, 10 FF/FR

22 Demarcus Ware 60 solos, 14 sacks, 4 FF/FR

Shawne Merriman finished 38th in 15 games with 54 solos and 12.5 sacks.

In 2006:

20 Shawne Merriman 49 solos, 16.5 sacks, 5 FF/FR(12 games)

22 Demarcus Ware 59 solos, 12 sacks, 6 FF/FR

So, for me, it becomes a simple matter of upside. A 3-4 OLB has to have a ridiculously good statistical season to crack the top 25. James Harrison did so last year on the strength of a huge tackle season. Ware and Merriman are two of the best rush LBs in recent memory and reasonable all-around talents on the field every down. They barely keep themselves within the LB2 tier despite getting double digit sacks -- in this scoring system.

Gholston would have to make 65 solos and 12 sacks to have any chance at reaching the top 20 overall linebackers in this system. And he'd have to do it on a yearly basis. And he'd have to be consistent on a week-to-week basis to have real value. Last season, people were drafting Shawne Merriman as a LB1 in many leagues with similar scoring systems. In raw terms (though I'll grant they don't tell the whole story), he had no more value than Napoleon Harris.

I can respect an argument that Gholston = Merriman/Ware. But I think it's a much more difficult argument than Gholston = Wimbley/Lawson. I understand that the Jets drafted Gholston highly and that he looks like he could grow into an all-around talent. You may be correct that he'll see 60 snaps starting Week 1. But I think he'll have to be very special to succeed as an all-around LB after a single training camp. I like Gholston, but I'm not sure he's that caliber of player yet.

For those that think Gholston is a perennial 60-14 guy, I think he'd arguably slot just within the top 10. If you're in a scoring system with a better sack-to-tackle ratio then our default system 4.5:1 or higher, he belongs in the top ten and probably as high as 7. For those in deep leagues (start 4 LBs or 16 teamers), he belongs much higher for his upside as a big play LB3-4 behind a couple of consistent studs. None of those situations apply for my rank list, though.

Now, despite that entire argument, I switched some players around in the lesser tiers yesterday afternoon (notably Wheeler and Goff) and moved Gholston down a little farther than I'd realized. I think his upside warrants a ranking in a tier higher than Avril and Ellis. Small difference, but more correct.

With regard to Mayo, my argument for him can be found in this post.

As always, I appreciate it when folks challenge the rankings and opinions we have. Really makes me flesh out the argument in my head. It usually still makes sense, but it's not uncommon that I come to the realization that I'm a stubborn idiot.

Great post Jene, but when I said I thought Gholston would be top ten, that was top ten amoungst rookies, not the NFL. Even if he is a 4 down OLB, he won't be top 25 in the NFL, no doubt. I share your 3-4 OLB bias. What I was wondering about was your ranking of 20 for Gholston in this year's LB draft class.... just seems overly downgraded to me. I'll eat my hat if he isn't in the top ten of rook LB's this year. Well, maybe just one bite, not the whole hat.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Thanks Rovers.

I've made no secret of my bias against 3-4 OLBs. I see even the best of them as inconsistent week-to-week options in all but the most big play oriented scoring systems. FBG's official scoring system has a sack-to-tackle ratio of 2.66:1, well below the 3.5:1 that would be "neutral".

In that scoring system, there were two 3-4 OLBs in the top 25 in 2007:

6 James Harrison 77 solos, 8.5 sacks, 10 FF/FR

22 Demarcus Ware 60 solos, 14 sacks, 4 FF/FR

Shawne Merriman finished 38th in 15 games with 54 solos and 12.5 sacks.

In 2006:

20 Shawne Merriman 49 solos, 16.5 sacks, 5 FF/FR(12 games)

22 Demarcus Ware 59 solos, 12 sacks, 6 FF/FR

So, for me, it becomes a simple matter of upside. A 3-4 OLB has to have a ridiculously good statistical season to crack the top 25. James Harrison did so last year on the strength of a huge tackle season. Ware and Merriman are two of the best rush LBs in recent memory and reasonable all-around talents on the field every down. They barely keep themselves within the LB2 tier despite getting double digit sacks -- in this scoring system.

Gholston would have to make 65 solos and 12 sacks to have any chance at reaching the top 20 overall linebackers in this system. And he'd have to do it on a yearly basis. And he'd have to be consistent on a week-to-week basis to have real value. Last season, people were drafting Shawne Merriman as a LB1 in many leagues with similar scoring systems. In raw terms (though I'll grant they don't tell the whole story), he had no more value than Napoleon Harris.

I can respect an argument that Gholston = Merriman/Ware. But I think it's a much more difficult argument than Gholston = Wimbley/Lawson. I understand that the Jets drafted Gholston highly and that he looks like he could grow into an all-around talent. You may be correct that he'll see 60 snaps starting Week 1. But I think he'll have to be very special to succeed as an all-around LB after a single training camp. I like Gholston, but I'm not sure he's that caliber of player yet.

For those that think Gholston is a perennial 60-14 guy, I think he'd arguably slot just within the top 10. If you're in a scoring system with a better sack-to-tackle ratio then our default system 4.5:1 or higher, he belongs in the top ten and probably as high as 7. For those in deep leagues (start 4 LBs or 16 teamers), he belongs much higher for his upside as a big play LB3-4 behind a couple of consistent studs. None of those situations apply for my rank list, though.

Now, despite that entire argument, I switched some players around in the lesser tiers yesterday afternoon (notably Wheeler and Goff) and moved Gholston down a little farther than I'd realized. I think his upside warrants a ranking in a tier higher than Avril and Ellis. Small difference, but more correct.

With regard to Mayo, my argument for him can be found in this post.

As always, I appreciate it when folks challenge the rankings and opinions we have. Really makes me flesh out the argument in my head. It usually still makes sense, but it's not uncommon that I come to the realization that I'm a stubborn idiot.

Great post Jene, but when I said I thought Gholston would be top ten, that was top ten amoungst rookies, not the NFL. Even if he is a 4 down OLB, he won't be top 25 in the NFL, no doubt. I share your 3-4 OLB bias. What I was wondering about was your ranking of 20 for Gholston in this year's LB draft class.... just seems overly downgraded to me. I'll eat my hat if he isn't in the top ten of rook LB's this year. Well, maybe just one bite, not the whole hat.

Then I think we're pretty close to being on the same page. I had him 20th overall (now 18th) among IDP rookies. He was/is my tenth overall rookie LB.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Finally finished mine.

I have to say that I was surprised at some of the results in comparison - but that's life with IDPs.