FBG Rookie Rankings Critique (1 Viewer)

[Cookiemonster]

3 Lorenzo Booker Florida State 5'11" 191 lbs.

don't let his weight fool you, Booker has incredible strength for a back his size (strongest player at FSU 3 of the 4 years he was there), the NFL is all about mismatches and Booker will give opposing defenses a headache every time he lines up in the backfield, he can excel as a runner and a receiver at the next level, clearly better when running outside, but has the determination to run inside, think Warrick Dunn with some Brian Westbrook sprinkled in, see the Matrix run.

I've got nothing against undersized backs, and in fact supported Dunn earlier in the thread, but Booker is small. Worse yet, he runs small. I had high hopes for him when I read about his 27 reps @ the combine, but then when I watched the Senior Bowl again today I couldn't help but be a disbeliever when he returned a kickoff in the 2nd half and was knocked 2 yards backwards... by the kicker!

**I must note that while in HS in CA, Bush, Jones-Drew, and Booker were tearing it up at the same time. Many people who saw all 3 said that Booker was the best out of the 3.

Should we really go back and compare RBs that were drafted higher in the 1st round but greatly dissappointed? What a player looked like 3 years ago amounts to a hill of beans when you're looking at a developmental period, say anything before full-maturity at about 24 years old. Maybe one or more of these guys were already fully matured men by age 18, playing with boys in HS. I weighed 165 my senior year, but was playing Marine Corps football at age 23 at about 195. Without height/weight standards, I was up to 220 in J.C. the next year. Man, I could have been a stud in HS if I were 220 running a 4.7 like I was in Juco. Would Booker have kicked my butt on the field when I was full-grown? Probably. But I would have stood a chance as a man, no way in hell as a 165 lb boy.

Ronnie Brown is the starter. Ronnie Brown has GREAT hands, not good hands, but GREAT ones - perhaps the best we've seen in a bigger back. That being said, it's what you do when the ball is in your hands that counts. Brown will catch any screen pass, but will he make yards after the catch? Is he a threat to score from anywhere on the field?

YES. 2nd overall pick??? You've got the film right? Go back to his senior year vs. LSU. Check out the pass he caught on the offensive right sideline, near the line of scrimmage. He only gained a few yards on the play, but something like 8 or 9 defenders had or took a shot at him. Same game, fellow 1st round pick Marcus Spears had Brown near the line of scrimmage when Brown laid a stiff arm into his neck and almost choke-slammed Spears to the ground en route to a long gain. These are just two of my favorite plays of Ronnie's that don't make the highlight reels. This dude can run over, around or away from you. I'll give Booker the higher grade in agility, but in no other aspect of football.

It's really his quickness that sets him apart. Lining up both Brown and Booker at the same time makes a lot of sense. Remember, Brown blocked for Caddy, so he could block for Booker in certain situations. I see all sorts of trickery that the Dolphins could pull here.

This here, I agree with you on. It's not done very often in the NFL, but then again, very few true tailbacks can block like fullbacks. In today's copycat league, maybe McAllister and Bush will start a trend that I've been waiting to see. Can't you picture a fly-T offense in the NFL? lol

AMP LEE!?!? EBF, you know you're my boy, but please, why Amp Lee?

I agree EBF. You were a little out of line on this one. Please don't take this personally Cecil, as it is not an attack on you. You have definately seen more of Booker than I have, but what I have seen of him just makes me shake my head. Now, what I've seen of Ronnie makes my jaw drop. I can't see Booker as a better 3rd down back than Brown. If the Ginn aspect is true, then it may lend a little more insight as to why they drafted Booker following Welker's departure.

 

[Cecil Lammey]

Please don't take this personally Cecil, as it is not an attack on you. You have definately seen more of Booker than I have, but what I have seen of him just makes me shake my head. Now, what I've seen of Ronnie makes my jaw drop. I can't see Booker as a better 3rd down back than Brown. If the Ginn aspect is true, then it may lend a little more insight as to why they drafted Booker following Welker's departure.

Cookie-This type of debate is what makes the Shark Pool so great. No need to take anything personal, if we all agreed on players that'd be pretty boring!LOL at the LSU/Aubrun game. Yes, I do have it as LSU is my favorite college team. What am I supposed to do? Root for CU???????

 

[Cookiemonster]

Please don't take this personally Cecil, as it is not an attack on you. You have definately seen more of Booker than I have, but what I have seen of him just makes me shake my head. Now, what I've seen of Ronnie makes my jaw drop. I can't see Booker as a better 3rd down back than Brown. If the Ginn aspect is true, then it may lend a little more insight as to why they drafted Booker following Welker's departure.

Cookie-This type of debate is what makes the Shark Pool so great. No need to take anything personal, if we all agreed on players that'd be pretty boring!

LOL at the LSU/Aubrun game. Yes, I do have it as LSU is my favorite college team. What am I supposed to do? Root for CU???????

WAR EAGLE, BABY!!!

 

[Cookiemonster]

Yeah, cat's outta the bag. Damn Cookiemonster is on here pimping two AU RBs. In all reality though, I'm honestly not a blind homer (that's my buddy out in Georgia). I've been following them for about the last 3 years due to them being by best friend's favorite team (my original team is the Wolverines). I grade these guys compared to the talent I see them face. I said before that one of my screaming endorsements of Calvin Johnson was that former 1st round pick Carlos Rogers wasn't able to contain him. I've also complained about the L.Woodley pick by the Steelers this year. I won't pimp Grubbs or Duckworth (or Kalil or Blaylock, and definately not Staley) due them getting owned by Okoye, Pittman, Spencer and Carriker in the Senior bowl. Tony Hunt and Buster Davis also really earned my respect that game. It was thunder every time they met each other in the hole. Like watching two battling rams on a hillside (insert Mountain Dew commercial). I like game tape about 80-20% in terms of grading my players.

I hope I have given Cecil a hard time, and in the process have explained a little more about what and why I like/dislike certain players.

 

[Football Jones]

Kenny Irons is a decent RB, but I think where people are making their mistake is assuming he'll be the heir apparent to Rudi Johnson. I don't believe even Cincinnati expects Irons to be their #1 RB.

The Bengals were in desperate need of a complimentary back & took Irons. However, their feature back will be drafted in one of the next three drafts, IMO.

 

[LHUCKS]

I don't believe even Cincinnati expects Irons to be their #1 RB.

Really? I'd expect that most teams plant that their second round RB will at least seriously compete for the gig unless they are a special teams/third down back type. I would say the Bengals fully expect for Irons to take the starting job eventually...or at the very least compete for it.

 

[Football Jones]

I don't believe even Cincinnati expects Irons to be their #1 RB.

Really? I'd expect that most teams plant that their second round RB will at least seriously compete for the gig unless they are a special teams/third down back type. I would say the Bengals fully expect for Irons to take the starting job eventually...or at the very least compete for it.

Everyone competes, & while I don't actually know what the Bengals' FO is thinking, it would shock me if their feature back isn't drafted in the next few years. Irons isn't feature back material, IMO. They were in desperate need of a complimentary back, tho. Anyway, if this was a stronger class, that pick may have been their future at RB.

 

[komments]

The Vick factor is definitely a negative, but here are some of my reasons why it might not be the career killer some people are making it out to be:

- There's no telling who Atlanta's QB will be in a year. The NFL is inherently unpredictable. For all we know, DJ Shockley will assume the reigns and pass for 4,000 yards next season. Now obviously that's a major stretch, but there are countless scenarios in which Vick could be replaced by a major upgrade (and with 4-5 first round QBs possible in next year's draft, it could happen soon).

- Robinson might not be a Falcon forever. He could get traded or sign with a new team in a few seasons.

- Maybe Vick will get better.

- Maybe Vick doesn't have to get better. Roddy White, Michael Jenkins, and Peerless Price probably aren't the kind of WRs who make a QB look good. Maybe Vick would be a better passer if he had better receivers. It's unlikely, but possible (though I tend to believe that great QBs elevate their WRs ala McNabb and Favre).

Hey - even if Vick doesn't get better - or gets arrested for dog fighting - the Falcons can always depend on their new backup. Joey Harrington.Oops - I wonder if they are regretting letting Schaub go now.

 

[joffer]

up in my rookie draft and debating between Booker and Irons. reading this thread i just changed my mind 4 times

 

[roarlions]

up in my rookie draft and debating between Booker and Irons. reading this thread i just changed my mind 4 times

Same thing happened to me. I ended up taking Booker with pick 100 and then since I wasn't sure about that pick I got Irons with pick 125.

 

[duaneok66]

The Vick factor is definitely a negative, but here are some of my reasons why it might not be the career killer some people are making it out to be:

- There's no telling who Atlanta's QB will be in a year. The NFL is inherently unpredictable. For all we know, DJ Shockley will assume the reigns and pass for 4,000 yards next season. Now obviously that's a major stretch, but there are countless scenarios in which Vick could be replaced by a major upgrade (and with 4-5 first round QBs possible in next year's draft, it could happen soon).

- Robinson might not be a Falcon forever. He could get traded or sign with a new team in a few seasons.

- Maybe Vick will get better.

- Maybe Vick doesn't have to get better. Roddy White, Michael Jenkins, and Peerless Price probably aren't the kind of WRs who make a QB look good. Maybe Vick would be a better passer if he had better receivers. It's unlikely, but possible (though I tend to believe that great QBs elevate their WRs ala McNabb and Favre).

Hey - even if Vick doesn't get better - or gets arrested for dog fighting - the Falcons can always depend on their new backup. Joey Harrington.Oops - I wonder if they are regretting letting Schaub go now.

they made their bed . . .when you tie your franchise to a "flashy" overrated player, this is what happens . . .

 

[Bob Magaw]

nice thread, EBF...

i'm in the camp that likes kolb long term...

i read an article (sorry, no link, but i could probably find) that talked about how collegiate starts & completion percentage was tightly correlated with subsequent pro "success" (not sure what quantitative measures they used in defining success, & didn't verify the hypothesis, just passing it along... it intuitively makes some sense)...

kolb shows up very high in both categories, with i think 50 starts (top 3-4 in ncaa history?), and was about 65% completion percentage (?)... he is also high up among ncaa career passing yardage leaders, i think...

mcnabb is outstanding in his own right, but it can't hurt that he gets to work behind an above average OL... PHI under reid is known to build from inside out & assign high priority to both OL/DL (as opposed to say, RB & LB)... there is no reason to suspect that this organizational tendency & drafting penchant will change in near future (already they got justice, who put up lights out combine numbers & the highly regarded OG from class of 06... insert auto-reload sound of pump action shotgun ), which should benefit him if he is in fact the guy by '09...

how much of mcnabb's success has been due to innate athletic ability & talent, & how much to being coached up & put in position to succeed by the system? it likely isn't either or, but all of those contributing... PHI has shown a tendency to pass a lot (that changed a bit last year, and could change more in the future), relative to teams like PIT, so that could be another system/scheme edge in his favor...

OTOH, except for garcia's success last season, for the most part the backups didn't look exceptional when stepping in, sort of blowing up the... "its the system" theory to explain, even partially, mcnabb's success... maybe he is so good he could have looked good even in OAK last year?

 

[greyone]

Way to duke it out boys. Abso-freaking-lutely enjoyed reading this thread. Is there a smiley for :goodthread:.?Make one!

mental note "how to argue/defend a players ranking."

 

[Cookiemonster]

Way to duke it out boys. Abso-freaking-lutely enjoyed reading this thread. Is there a smiley for :goodthread:.?Make one! mental note "how to argue/defend a players ranking."

It felt good to spar w/ someone knowledgable and not easily offended. Too many times you get your head bit off for throwing out your opinion. Nice to go a few rounds w/ the champs. Thanks Cecil, EBF, Bloom, Weasle, CC and others.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

For the record, I was inaccurate in listing Irons YPC in 2006. It is 4.5, not 4.7. I calculated 4.7 looking at his positive yards from runs, not his total yards from runs.

 

[bcr8f]

Kolb...I do not see him having any sort of FF ROI until the 09-10 time frame.

This doesn't really concern me. I would be suprised if Jamarcus Russell has any real FF inpact until 09.

Surprised no one comented on this. 2 years? I don't agree.

 

[Cecil Lammey]

Way to duke it out boys. Abso-freaking-lutely enjoyed reading this thread. Is there a smiley for :goodthread:.?Make one! mental note "how to argue/defend a players ranking."

It felt good to spar w/ someone knowledgable and not easily offended. Too many times you get your head bit off for throwing out your opinion. Nice to go a few rounds w/ the champs. Thanks Cecil, EBF, Bloom, Weasle, CC and others.

The Shark Pool rocks!

 

[Donnybrook]

Kolb...I do not see him having any sort of FF ROI until the 09-10 time frame.

This doesn't really concern me. I would be suprised if Jamarcus Russell has any real FF inpact until 09.

Surprised no one comented on this. 2 years? I don't agree.

From ProFootball Weekly:

In the case of Russell, it’s always difficult to accurately predict what the Raiders’ plans are in any situation. However, our sources tell us that, while the future clearly belongs to the first player selected in the draft, the Silver and Black would prefer the 2007 ship to be steered by newcomer Josh McCown.The early word is that, unless Russell absolutely wows the Raiders in training camp, McCown will take the majority of meaningful snaps this season. With only one year remaining on his current contract, McCown figures to serve as a bridge of sorts to Russell, who, despite having all the physical tools to compete right away, will need some seasoning, especially in terms of reading NFL defenses and digesting complex game plans.Despite the fact Russell played in a pro-style offense at LSU, sources say the learning curve could be a bit longer than usual for Russell, and the Raiders won’t be too eager to put him back in the pocket until they get their blocking issues sorted out (72 sacks allowed in 2006), which won’t happen overnight.

If McCown starts the first year and Russel plays like a rookie on a bad team in his second, then your looking at 2009 before he has any real FF impact.

 

[az_prof]

By and large the rankings are great. My only critique is Booker, who is now ranked ninth. I just don't see how a guy who could never take over the starting job in college, who is undersized and not very physical, whose 40 time is a pretty pedestrian 4.6 (for a "speed guy that's not great), and who plays behind a young and gifted RB could merit such a high ranking. He is a scat back who will be used to spell Brown. I don't see him as a featured back.

 

[BearsFan]

By and large the rankings are great. My only critique is Booker, who is now ranked ninth. I just don't see how a guy who could never take over the starting job in college, who is undersized and not very physical, whose 40 time is a pretty pedestrian 4.6 (for a "speed guy that's not great), and who plays behind a young and gifted RB could merit such a high ranking. He is a scat back who will be used to spell Brown. I don't see him as a featured back.

I think you may have meant to add a "4" between the 4. and 6.Booker ran a 4.46 at the combine and 4.42 on campus, ...and expectations had been even lower than those #s.

 

[az_prof]

By and large the rankings are great. My only critique is Booker, who is now ranked ninth. I just don't see how a guy who could never take over the starting job in college, who is undersized and not very physical, whose 40 time is a pretty pedestrian 4.6 (for a "speed guy that's not great), and who plays behind a young and gifted RB could merit such a high ranking. He is a scat back who will be used to spell Brown. I don't see him as a featured back.

I think you may have meant to add a "4" between the 4. and 6.Booker ran a 4.46 at the combine and 4.42 on campus, ...and expectations had been even lower than those #s.

Thanks BearsFan; that was what I meant. And, let's face it, 4.46 is good; but for a smallish guy who relies on speed, it isn't drop dead speed.

 

[-OZ-]

Overrated

Brian Leonard, RB, St. Louis - Consensus Ranking: 21

A pass-catching fullback/halfback 'tweener, Leonard will probably never be more than a RBBC member at the next level. He's an athletic player with a diverse skill set that should allow him to earn a substantial chunk of playing time, but there's little reason to believe he'll ever be a 1,000 yard type at the NFL level. So while he offers the potential to become a solid backup player on your roster, his lack of upside means he should probably be avoided in the top 25 of rookie drafts.

That said, the Rams have a good offense and anything can happen with injuries, so Leonard does offer intriguing potential as a fill-in guy. But even so, I just don't see him as a long-term featured back, so I'd rather role the dice on a WR or QB in the rookie draft.

Good rankings: Sigmund Bloom (35)

Bad rankings: Bob Henry (8), Cecil Lammey (9)

Apparently my league agrees with you:5.01 49. Blue Falcons Leonard, Brian STL RB ® Fri May 25 1:19:57 p.m. ET 2007

 

[5Rings]

This is from a few weeks back, but still a good sample size.

31 drafts have started, 25 have finished first round

1.06 A. Peterson

2.47 M. Lynch

2.50 C. Johnson

4.79 J. Russell

5.59 B. Jackson

7.36 M. Bush

7.81 R. Meachem

8.58 R. Bowe

9.56 B. Quinn

10.04 C. Henry

12.46 S. Rice

13.29 D. Jarrett

24 have started second round, 19 have finished second round

13.58 K. Irons

14.59 T. Ginn Jr.

14.70 A. Gonzalez

15.90 P. Willis

18.73 L. Booker

20.37 G. Olsen

20.60 T. Hunt

21.05 P. Posluszny

21.25 S. Smith

21.31 C. Davis

23.53 B. Leonard

24.00 D. Stanton

 

[Rushmore]

I like the Irons talk. Jim Anderson has been wanting a compliment of a James Brooks-type back for a few years now (stemming from the Icky Woods/James Brooks combo from their Superbowl team). He has compared Irons to Brooks in interviews since drafting him. They wanted Perry to be that guy, but obviously the injuries have kept that from happening thus far. Last year, they were wanting to impliment more 2-back sets, but again, the Perry injuries kept it from happening. Rudi is one of the worst receiving backs out there, so Irons will need to show that he is at least capable of catching passes out of the backfield this offseason. He was not known for doing a lot of that in college, but I'm sure they will be working on that facet of his game. I'm a fan of Rudi's toughness and durability, but there are things that he doesn't do that would help this offense. Perry's best season 2 years ago made him a decent fantasy option, even playing behind Rudi-especially in pt./rec. leagues. Irons is right now a longer term bet in dynasty formats, but it's not inconceivable that he could get a lot more work (sooner than later) than some project. I'll be playing close attention to how he progresses at catching the football.

 

[Cookiemonster]

I don't think any of us here supporting Irons said anything positive about his recieving ablilities. Granted, he didn't get many opportunities the last couple years. My take is that if he caught the ball well, he would have been given more opportunities. Caddy and Brown caught balls there just a couple years ago. Pass blocking was worse last year and the backs could have been used more in pass pro, but from memory alone, I cannot say. Point is, for all the pimping of Irons in this thread, pass-catching was not one of the high points. I don't see him as the 3rd down back in the Cinci offense, I see him as the successor to Rudi. Some carries this year, more next year, starter in '09.

 

[hpnepon]

 

[TecmoBeast]

I've been overlooking Irons because I think Chris Perry is the superior talent. Perry's constant injuries forced Cincy to take a back day 1. But the guy is going to be healthy eventually and Irons will have to compete

 

[Cookiemonster]

I've been overlooking Irons because I think Chris Perry is the superior talent. Perry's constant injuries forced Cincy to take a back day 1. But the guy is going to be healthy eventually and Irons will have to compete

I'm a Michigan fan and my best friend is an Auburn fan. My vote goes to Irons. Especially now that so many injuries have been piled on Perry. A severe ankle sprain took .3 seconds off my 40 from one year prior. There's got to be a cumulative effect on Perry who, I doubt was as talented coming out of college as Irons anyways. Perry is probably a better reciever, and more familiar w/ blocking schemes so may see more 3rd down work than Irons, but if Rudi were to go down, my $ is on Irons taking the lion's share of the carries.

 

[Donnybrook]

From FBG's latest email:

CIN - RB Perry To Be Placed On PUP ListSource: Geoff Hobson, Bengals.comBengals HC Marvin Lewis said that RB Chris Perry is looking at starting his second straight season on the physically unable to perform list, and will miss the first six weeks of the regular season. Perry, also has his foot in a boot and "is in a non-weight bearing deal," Lewis said. [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]Another tough start for Perry.

 

[EBF]

It's unfortunate Laurent Robinson went to the WR graveyard. I removed him completely from my draft board when they called his name. However, if they are lucky enough to be able to get Brohm next year, look out. If Vick somehow continues his masquerade as a QB, Robinson will never be worth having.

The Vick factor is definitely a negative, but here are some of my reasons why it might not be the career killer some people are making it out to be:- There's no telling who Atlanta's QB will be in a year. The NFL is inherently unpredictable. For all we know, DJ Shockley will assume the reigns and pass for 4,000 yards next season. Now obviously that's a major stretch, but there are countless scenarios in which Vick could be replaced by a major upgrade (and with 4-5 first round QBs possible in next year's draft, it could happen soon).

Fun to revisit this after these guys played their rookie seasons. I feel pretty good about my Irons, Robinson, Booker, and Leonard calls. I never saw Booker or Leonard as franchise RBs and couldn't conceive of taking them over some of the receivers in this loaded crop of wideouts. I didn't fare so well with my honorable mentions. Bowe is a top 4 player from the class as of now and Anthony Gonzalez is making me look stupid for doubting him. Jason Hill and Thomas Clayton = .

 

[Slinger]

I didn't fare so well with my honorable mentions.

Bowe surprised me as well. He didn't play like a rookie. Where do you think you went wrong with your assessment of him? I think I underestimated the opportunity that he had in KC. You have Tony Gonzalez and that's it. KC needed a good WR to catch balls and Bowe did just that.

 

[EBF]

I didn't fare so well with my honorable mentions.

Bowe surprised me as well. He didn't play like a rookie. Where do you think you went wrong with your assessment of him? I think I underestimated the opportunity that he had in KC. You have Tony Gonzalez and that's it. KC needed a good WR to catch balls and Bowe did just that.

I repeatedly flip-flopped with this WR class. At one point I actually had Bowe as the clear WR2, but I began to listen to all the rumors about his bad hands and decided to drop him down several spots. In this case I probably should've trusted my eyeballs. I've learned some lessons about WR scouting over the past 2-3 seasons and should do a somewhat better job moving forward.

 

[awesomeness]

I didn't fare so well with my honorable mentions.

Bowe surprised me as well. He didn't play like a rookie. Where do you think you went wrong with your assessment of him? I think I underestimated the opportunity that he had in KC. You have Tony Gonzalez and that's it. KC needed a good WR to catch balls and Bowe did just that.

I repeatedly flip-flopped with this WR class. At one point I actually had Bowe as the clear WR2, but I began to listen to all the rumors about his bad hands and decided to drop him down several spots. In this case I probably should've trusted my eyeballs. I've learned some lessons about WR scouting over the past 2-3 seasons and should do a somewhat better job moving forward.

i also flip-flopped with Bowe. I was the first person to draft a WR in the rookie draft, drafting Bowe with the 7th pick. Unfortunately, i traded him after the first week of the season ETA: I meant second WR in the rookie draft, forgot about Calvin Johnson

 

[EBF]

I didn't fare so well with my honorable mentions.

Bowe surprised me as well. He didn't play like a rookie. Where do you think you went wrong with your assessment of him? I think I underestimated the opportunity that he had in KC. You have Tony Gonzalez and that's it. KC needed a good WR to catch balls and Bowe did just that.

I repeatedly flip-flopped with this WR class. At one point I actually had Bowe as the clear WR2, but I began to listen to all the rumors about his bad hands and decided to drop him down several spots. In this case I probably should've trusted my eyeballs. I've learned some lessons about WR scouting over the past 2-3 seasons and should do a somewhat better job moving forward.

i also flip-flopped with Bowe. I was the first person to draft a WR in the rookie draft, drafting Bowe with the 7th pick. Unfortunately, i traded him after the first week of the season

This was a pretty tough WR group to gauge. All of the WRs taken in the first two rounds had promising aspects to their game, and yet none of them besides Calvin looked like sure things. I think the early success of Bowe, Gonzalez, and Rice versus the early failure of Meachem and Jarrett has taught me a couple lessons, but hindsight is always 20/20.The good news about this WR class for me is that Laurent Robinson is the one guy I made a point to get in just about all of my leagues (drafted him in 4 out of my 5 leagues and missed him by one pick in my other). I think I was on the money in my assessment of him. He actually had the fewest glaring flaws of any WR in the draft outside of CJ.