Islander
Footballguy
I compared the 2005 preseason FBG staff rankings for RBs to the 2005 final results, both on a point per game basis (PPG) and total points scored to see who of all FBG staff had the best rankings. So far I only looked at RBs since they are the bread & butter of most leagues. If I find time, I will move on to WRs and QBs.
I wanted to have some indication of who makes good rankings in the staff, and who makes bad rankings. It might help me in my projection weightings for the Projections Dominator. I also want to build my own FBG consensus by weighting different guys differently (the current consensus gives equal weight to everybody). I will tweak this a little.
Here is what I did to evaluate the FBG staff. First I used the 2005 preseason rankings (RBs 2005 Preseason Rankings). As you can see, the names do not show up on top, so at first I did not know whose rankings these were. I got the names only after my analysis was done. For each RB, I looked at which rankings were off the most from the consensus, and whether it was a good call or bad call. For example, the consensus for Tiki was #9, so the guy who ranked him lowest at #17 made a bad call. Same for the guy who ranked him #13 (2nd lowest). The three guys that ranked Tiki #6 made a good call. I tried to keep injuries in mind, which is why I looked at both PPG and total points scored during 2005. Ahman Green was horrible before his injury, so I think those who ranked him high were wrong. Larry Johnson was decent before Priest’s injury, so those who ranked LJ low were wrong. Etc. It’s the combination of being far off from consensus (or being the one with the highest/lowest ranking of all staff) and how much the player was good/bad relative to consensus that mattered the most to me. Tiki, McGahee, K Jones, J Lewis, etc. are amongst the RBs that made or broke our 2005 seasons. I used my judgment, which you could question in some instances, but since I did this without knowing who the rankings were from, you cannot accuse me of being biased! I did the best I could.
In addition, I want to point out that my evaluation is meant to be friendly and constructive! No bashing
Here are the results of my analysis.
Best Rankings – Bob Henry
Bob nailed his RB rankings last year and had the best RB rankings in my opinion
. First of all he had the 2nd lowest ranking for McGahee at #11, compared to a consensus of #6 which he knew was too high. He correctly predicted that J Lewis would struggle out of jail with the lowest ranking of all staff with #18 (consensus #13). He expected L Jordan to have a good year with the Raiders and got the 2nd highest ranking for him at #13. He had the 2nd highest ranking on LJ at #23. Of course LJ greatly benefited from Priest’s injury, but even before the injury, LJ was outscoring his consensus #31 (after 7 weeks, LJ had 10.1 PPG which was about 25th in the league). I generally don’t try to predict injuries, but some could be said about the higher probability of Priest to get injured than some other RBs. Bob had the highest ranking on Mike Anderson at #17. C Mart got injured but his consensus #17 can be compared to his PPG #28. Bob had the lowest ranking on C Mart at #20 so he deserves some credit for that. Ranking JJ Arrington #26 (consensus #22) prevented Bob from wasting a roster spot. Ranking F Taylor at #32 (consensus #23) was pretty good even if we ignore injuries (PPG #31). Bob’s mistakes were S-Jax at #8, that was a tad too high. S-Jax FBG consensus was #15 and he finished #16 PPG and #11 total, so it’s not like Bob lost the leagues were he grabbed S-Jax too early. His other mistake was Cadillac at #29 where he had the lowest ranking of all staff. The consensus was #20 and Cadillac finished #20 PPG and #19 total. Bob had Dillon at #7 compared to consensus #12, and Dillon finished #11 PPG so not too horrible, but Bob was too high regardless. Rudi #19 (consensus #16) was a bit too low. Bob was one of the FBG staff who diverged the most frequently from consensus, and he hit on a lot more than 50% of them. Here are Bob’s final preseason top 30 RB rankings, notice that for players where I did not discuss above as “good call” or “bad call”, there are more instances where Bob was slightly on the “good side” than the “bad side”.
1 LaDainian Tomlinson, SD
2 Shaun Alexander, SEA
3 Edgerrin James, IND
4 Deuce McAllister, NO (was not doing well before injury, consensus was #5 so not far off, but Bob was on the bad side nonetheless)
5 Priest Holmes, KC (only one notch below consensus #4, Priest finished #7 PPG so Bob was on the good side especially considering injury risk which was higher than other top RBs)
6 Tiki Barber, NYG (discussed above)
7 Corey Dillon, NE (discussed above)
8 Steven Jackson, STL (discussed above)
9 Kevin Jones, DET (consensus #7, Bob was on the good side)
10 Clinton Portis, WAS (consensus #8, Bob was on the bad side because Portis finished #6 PPG and #8 total)
11 Willis McGahee, BUF (discussed above)
12 Brian Westbrook, PHI (consensus was #18, and he finished #12 PPG, #18 total, hard to tell if ranking was right or wrong)
13 Lamont Jordan, OAK (discussed above)
14 Domanick Davis, HOU (finished #17 total and #9 PPG, hard to judge if right or wrong here because we all knew of DD’s injury risk so we cannot totally ignore that he missed games, consensus was #10).
15 Julius Jones, DAL (consensus #11, finished #19 PPG, so Bob was on the good side)
16 Ahman Green, GB (consensus #14, Bob was on the good side, Green was bad before injury)
17 Mike Anderson, DEN (discussed above)
18 Jamal Lewis, BAL (discussed above)
19 Rudi Johnson, CIN (discussed above)
20 Curtis Martin, NYJ (discussed above)
21 Chris Brown, TEN (consensus #25, PPG #24, total #20, hard to tell)
22 Warrick Dunn, ATL (consensus #21 so difference not significant)
23 Larry Johnson, KC (discussed above)
24 Thomas Jones, CHI (consensus #28 so Bob was on the good side)
25 Kevan Barlow, SF (consensus #27, on bad side)
26 J.J. Arrington, ARI (discussed above)
27 Tatum Bell, DEN (consensus #32, on good side)
28 Ronnie Brown, MIA (consensus #26, PPG #29, total #23, hard to tell)
29 Cadillac Williams, TB (discussed above)
30 Michael Bennett, MIN (equal to consensus)
Note: Bob did not pay me to say he had the best rankings!
Runner Up – Jason Wood
Jason had very few rankings that were far off from the consensus and was generally pretty solid. McGahee at #10 was the 3rd lowest of the staff, J Lewis at #17 was the 3rd lowest, and JJ Arrington at #27 was 2nd lowest
. I also noted some players a little off from consensus (but not as much as the previous three players) but good calls: Tiki #7 (consensus #9), Rudi #13 (consensus #16). However, Ju Jones at #9 (consensus #11) and K Jones at #6 (consensus #7) were a little on the bad side. If Jason had ranked KJ one spot below Tiki instead of one above, I might have called Jason's rankings to be the best instead of Bob since overall I saw no major flaw in Jason’s rankings, unlike Bob. But KJ > Tiki was costly last year. Bob also made more good calls (that were 
) than Jason.
Honorable Mention – Colin Dowling
Colin’s rankings were pretty solid overall. Tiki at #6 was a nice call. LJ at #21 was the highest ranking and as discussed above, I count this as a good call despite Priest’s injury. J Lewis at #17 was a good call as well, compared to consensus #13. Colin correctly avoided Ju Jones (#16 vs consensus #11) and F Taylor (#33 vs consensus 23). Colin missed the boat on Mike Anderson at #40 but that’s the only one that stands out. By the way, no rankings from Colin this year? I don’t see his rankings. It would be nice to get them.
You might disagree with me as to who did better between Bob, Jason, and Colin, but almost everybody would agree that the three of them as a group did a very good job overall
Rankings Very Similar to Consensus – Aaron Rudnicki
Aaron’s rankings were very similar to consensus, so with the way I evaluated the staff, Aaron can’t be right or wrong very much. Jamal Lewis at #18 (consensus #13) and JJ Arrington at #26 (consensus #22) were correctly avoided. Rudi at #13 (consensus #16) was good. Missed out on Tiki at #12 however. Other than that, no major mistake since Aaron’s rankings were pretty close to consensus. All in all, Aaron did above average.
Worse Performance –John Norton
John Norton made several rankings that were off from the consensus by quite a bit, and unfortunately he got them wrong frequently. I can partially excuse John on his RB rankings since he does a good job on IDP and that’s his expertise. So I would not beat him up. John correctly smelled RBBC in KC by ranking Priest #9, but instead of drafting Priest in the first round, John probably got McGahee at #4, Dillon at #5, Ju Jones at #6, or S Jackson at #7 who were all too high :X . Portis at #16 and Tiki at #17 were the lowest rankings of all staff and John was wrong
. Dunn at #28 was the lowest of all staff – wrong again. Westbrook at #24 was the lowest of all staff, and he finished #12 PPG and #18 total. Since he did not play in the playoffs, Westbrook’s owners were not happy, but all in all I don’t think this was a good ranking. John had the highest ranking of all staff for Barlow at #21. John did not see Droughns coming with a ranking of #46. John had three nice calls that gave him value however: L Jordan at #12 (highest of all staff), T Jones at #23 (2nd highest), and W Parker at #38 (highest). Avoiding JJ Arrington (#26 vs consensus #22) was good too. But overall John missed on so many top 10 RBs, it’s hard to recover from that.
Needs Improvement #1 – Marc Levin
None of Marc L’s rankings sank him, but almost everywhere he digressed from the consensus, he was wrong. Cadillac at #29 and T Jones at #44 were the lowest of all staff. F Taylor at #19 and M Bennett at #25 were too high. Tiki at #16, Mike Anderson at #31, and LJ #45 were all too low. Ju Jones at #8 (vs consensus #11) was a bit too high. The main good call I saw is A Green at #18 where Marc L was the 2nd lowest of all staff. McGahee #9 (vs consensus #6) and Portis #6 (consensus #8) were good, but not off the consensus by a lot. In the top 15, Marc L was significantly off the consensus only for one player (Tiki), which is why he was not that bad for where it counts the most, but yet I saw a lot more bad calls than good calls.
Needs Improvement #2 – Mark Wimer
Several fantasy teams got killed last year because of Kevin Jones. It probably happened to Mark W in several leagues because he ranked KJ the highest of all staff at #5 :X . Equally damaging to his teams was A Green at #7 (highest of all staff) and Jamal Lewis at #9 (2nd highest of all staff). Mark W probably ended up with JJ Arrington as a backup on a few teams as his ranking of #17 was the highest of all staff, so he failed to see that this guy did not have NFL talent. Mark W’s man-love for D Foster is well documented, and although Foster did not have a horrible season (#30 PPG and #24 total), Mark W’s ranking of #21 was a little too high. Mark W missed out on Portis’ adequate season with his ranking of #14. And Mark W probably did not have L Jordan on any of his teams with a ranking of #24, the lowest of all staff by far (2nd lowest was #21). Mark W’s ranking of #50 for Larry Johnson was the worst of all staff, even if Priest had been healthy all year, Mark W was wrong. And his ranking of #45 for Tatum Bell was too low. Mark W diverged from the consensus pretty frequently, and he did not get it wrong everywhere. He had a few good calls. Rudi at #12 was the second highest ranking of all staff. Thomas Jones at #22 was the highest ranking, and Droughns at #31 was 2nd highest. Mark W knew M Bennett would have a bad year with the lowest ranking at #39. Ju Jones at #18 (vs consensus #11) was correct. Mike Anderson #19 was a good call as well (consensus #24). These good calls were nice, but they probably did not have the same impact to his teams as the bad calls.
Needs Improvement #3 – Andy Hicks
Andy probably ended up with McGahee (#4) and K Jones (#5) on many teams because he had the highest ranking of all staff on them
. C Martin #8 was extremely off from the consensus of #17 and far above anyone else (2nd highest ranking for C Mart was #13). C Mart had a bad season even if we ignore games missed to injuries. Ok, he played in other games while affected by injuries, but things did not turn out too well. If Andy had not been so far off from consensus, I could have dismissed that one from the bad call column. Warrick Dunn #28 and M Bennett at #24 were wrong. In the top 10, Andy missed out on Edge #7, Portis #12, and Tiki #10, all three he ranked a little below consensus. But one or two spots too low in the top 10 can be huge when those guys have good seasons. Andy correctly avoided A Green with the lowest ranking at #21 and had the 2nd highest ranking on W Parker.
Others not mentioned who were middle of the road: Grant, Brown, Anderson, C Smith, Shick, Tremblay, David&Joe, and Gray. It was hard to evaluate Lammey and Baker because the rankings I got were from September 13th = after the season started. I don’t know to what extent I should give them credit for good calls like W Parker for example, knowing the kind of week #1 he had.
I wanted to have some indication of who makes good rankings in the staff, and who makes bad rankings. It might help me in my projection weightings for the Projections Dominator. I also want to build my own FBG consensus by weighting different guys differently (the current consensus gives equal weight to everybody). I will tweak this a little.
Here is what I did to evaluate the FBG staff. First I used the 2005 preseason rankings (RBs 2005 Preseason Rankings). As you can see, the names do not show up on top, so at first I did not know whose rankings these were. I got the names only after my analysis was done. For each RB, I looked at which rankings were off the most from the consensus, and whether it was a good call or bad call. For example, the consensus for Tiki was #9, so the guy who ranked him lowest at #17 made a bad call. Same for the guy who ranked him #13 (2nd lowest). The three guys that ranked Tiki #6 made a good call. I tried to keep injuries in mind, which is why I looked at both PPG and total points scored during 2005. Ahman Green was horrible before his injury, so I think those who ranked him high were wrong. Larry Johnson was decent before Priest’s injury, so those who ranked LJ low were wrong. Etc. It’s the combination of being far off from consensus (or being the one with the highest/lowest ranking of all staff) and how much the player was good/bad relative to consensus that mattered the most to me. Tiki, McGahee, K Jones, J Lewis, etc. are amongst the RBs that made or broke our 2005 seasons. I used my judgment, which you could question in some instances, but since I did this without knowing who the rankings were from, you cannot accuse me of being biased! I did the best I could.
In addition, I want to point out that my evaluation is meant to be friendly and constructive! No bashing
Here are the results of my analysis.
Best Rankings – Bob Henry
Bob nailed his RB rankings last year and had the best RB rankings in my opinion
. First of all he had the 2nd lowest ranking for McGahee at #11, compared to a consensus of #6 which he knew was too high. He correctly predicted that J Lewis would struggle out of jail with the lowest ranking of all staff with #18 (consensus #13). He expected L Jordan to have a good year with the Raiders and got the 2nd highest ranking for him at #13. He had the 2nd highest ranking on LJ at #23. Of course LJ greatly benefited from Priest’s injury, but even before the injury, LJ was outscoring his consensus #31 (after 7 weeks, LJ had 10.1 PPG which was about 25th in the league). I generally don’t try to predict injuries, but some could be said about the higher probability of Priest to get injured than some other RBs. Bob had the highest ranking on Mike Anderson at #17. C Mart got injured but his consensus #17 can be compared to his PPG #28. Bob had the lowest ranking on C Mart at #20 so he deserves some credit for that. Ranking JJ Arrington #26 (consensus #22) prevented Bob from wasting a roster spot. Ranking F Taylor at #32 (consensus #23) was pretty good even if we ignore injuries (PPG #31). Bob’s mistakes were S-Jax at #8, that was a tad too high. S-Jax FBG consensus was #15 and he finished #16 PPG and #11 total, so it’s not like Bob lost the leagues were he grabbed S-Jax too early. His other mistake was Cadillac at #29 where he had the lowest ranking of all staff. The consensus was #20 and Cadillac finished #20 PPG and #19 total. Bob had Dillon at #7 compared to consensus #12, and Dillon finished #11 PPG so not too horrible, but Bob was too high regardless. Rudi #19 (consensus #16) was a bit too low. Bob was one of the FBG staff who diverged the most frequently from consensus, and he hit on a lot more than 50% of them. Here are Bob’s final preseason top 30 RB rankings, notice that for players where I did not discuss above as “good call” or “bad call”, there are more instances where Bob was slightly on the “good side” than the “bad side”.1 LaDainian Tomlinson, SD
2 Shaun Alexander, SEA
3 Edgerrin James, IND
4 Deuce McAllister, NO (was not doing well before injury, consensus was #5 so not far off, but Bob was on the bad side nonetheless)
5 Priest Holmes, KC (only one notch below consensus #4, Priest finished #7 PPG so Bob was on the good side especially considering injury risk which was higher than other top RBs)
6 Tiki Barber, NYG (discussed above)
7 Corey Dillon, NE (discussed above)
8 Steven Jackson, STL (discussed above)
9 Kevin Jones, DET (consensus #7, Bob was on the good side)
10 Clinton Portis, WAS (consensus #8, Bob was on the bad side because Portis finished #6 PPG and #8 total)
11 Willis McGahee, BUF (discussed above)
12 Brian Westbrook, PHI (consensus was #18, and he finished #12 PPG, #18 total, hard to tell if ranking was right or wrong)
13 Lamont Jordan, OAK (discussed above)
14 Domanick Davis, HOU (finished #17 total and #9 PPG, hard to judge if right or wrong here because we all knew of DD’s injury risk so we cannot totally ignore that he missed games, consensus was #10).
15 Julius Jones, DAL (consensus #11, finished #19 PPG, so Bob was on the good side)
16 Ahman Green, GB (consensus #14, Bob was on the good side, Green was bad before injury)
17 Mike Anderson, DEN (discussed above)
18 Jamal Lewis, BAL (discussed above)
19 Rudi Johnson, CIN (discussed above)
20 Curtis Martin, NYJ (discussed above)
21 Chris Brown, TEN (consensus #25, PPG #24, total #20, hard to tell)
22 Warrick Dunn, ATL (consensus #21 so difference not significant)
23 Larry Johnson, KC (discussed above)
24 Thomas Jones, CHI (consensus #28 so Bob was on the good side)
25 Kevan Barlow, SF (consensus #27, on bad side)
26 J.J. Arrington, ARI (discussed above)
27 Tatum Bell, DEN (consensus #32, on good side)
28 Ronnie Brown, MIA (consensus #26, PPG #29, total #23, hard to tell)
29 Cadillac Williams, TB (discussed above)
30 Michael Bennett, MIN (equal to consensus)
Note: Bob did not pay me to say he had the best rankings!
Runner Up – Jason Wood
Jason had very few rankings that were far off from the consensus and was generally pretty solid. McGahee at #10 was the 3rd lowest of the staff, J Lewis at #17 was the 3rd lowest, and JJ Arrington at #27 was 2nd lowest
. I also noted some players a little off from consensus (but not as much as the previous three players) but good calls: Tiki #7 (consensus #9), Rudi #13 (consensus #16). However, Ju Jones at #9 (consensus #11) and K Jones at #6 (consensus #7) were a little on the bad side. If Jason had ranked KJ one spot below Tiki instead of one above, I might have called Jason's rankings to be the best instead of Bob since overall I saw no major flaw in Jason’s rankings, unlike Bob. But KJ > Tiki was costly last year. Bob also made more good calls (that were ) than Jason.Honorable Mention – Colin Dowling
Colin’s rankings were pretty solid overall. Tiki at #6 was a nice call. LJ at #21 was the highest ranking and as discussed above, I count this as a good call despite Priest’s injury. J Lewis at #17 was a good call as well, compared to consensus #13. Colin correctly avoided Ju Jones (#16 vs consensus #11) and F Taylor (#33 vs consensus 23). Colin missed the boat on Mike Anderson at #40 but that’s the only one that stands out. By the way, no rankings from Colin this year? I don’t see his rankings. It would be nice to get them.
You might disagree with me as to who did better between Bob, Jason, and Colin, but almost everybody would agree that the three of them as a group did a very good job overall
Rankings Very Similar to Consensus – Aaron Rudnicki
Aaron’s rankings were very similar to consensus, so with the way I evaluated the staff, Aaron can’t be right or wrong very much. Jamal Lewis at #18 (consensus #13) and JJ Arrington at #26 (consensus #22) were correctly avoided. Rudi at #13 (consensus #16) was good. Missed out on Tiki at #12 however. Other than that, no major mistake since Aaron’s rankings were pretty close to consensus. All in all, Aaron did above average.
Worse Performance –John Norton
John Norton made several rankings that were off from the consensus by quite a bit, and unfortunately he got them wrong frequently. I can partially excuse John on his RB rankings since he does a good job on IDP and that’s his expertise. So I would not beat him up. John correctly smelled RBBC in KC by ranking Priest #9, but instead of drafting Priest in the first round, John probably got McGahee at #4, Dillon at #5, Ju Jones at #6, or S Jackson at #7 who were all too high :X . Portis at #16 and Tiki at #17 were the lowest rankings of all staff and John was wrong
. Dunn at #28 was the lowest of all staff – wrong again. Westbrook at #24 was the lowest of all staff, and he finished #12 PPG and #18 total. Since he did not play in the playoffs, Westbrook’s owners were not happy, but all in all I don’t think this was a good ranking. John had the highest ranking of all staff for Barlow at #21. John did not see Droughns coming with a ranking of #46. John had three nice calls that gave him value however: L Jordan at #12 (highest of all staff), T Jones at #23 (2nd highest), and W Parker at #38 (highest). Avoiding JJ Arrington (#26 vs consensus #22) was good too. But overall John missed on so many top 10 RBs, it’s hard to recover from that.Needs Improvement #1 – Marc Levin
None of Marc L’s rankings sank him, but almost everywhere he digressed from the consensus, he was wrong. Cadillac at #29 and T Jones at #44 were the lowest of all staff. F Taylor at #19 and M Bennett at #25 were too high. Tiki at #16, Mike Anderson at #31, and LJ #45 were all too low. Ju Jones at #8 (vs consensus #11) was a bit too high. The main good call I saw is A Green at #18 where Marc L was the 2nd lowest of all staff. McGahee #9 (vs consensus #6) and Portis #6 (consensus #8) were good, but not off the consensus by a lot. In the top 15, Marc L was significantly off the consensus only for one player (Tiki), which is why he was not that bad for where it counts the most, but yet I saw a lot more bad calls than good calls.
Needs Improvement #2 – Mark Wimer
Several fantasy teams got killed last year because of Kevin Jones. It probably happened to Mark W in several leagues because he ranked KJ the highest of all staff at #5 :X . Equally damaging to his teams was A Green at #7 (highest of all staff) and Jamal Lewis at #9 (2nd highest of all staff). Mark W probably ended up with JJ Arrington as a backup on a few teams as his ranking of #17 was the highest of all staff, so he failed to see that this guy did not have NFL talent. Mark W’s man-love for D Foster is well documented, and although Foster did not have a horrible season (#30 PPG and #24 total), Mark W’s ranking of #21 was a little too high. Mark W missed out on Portis’ adequate season with his ranking of #14. And Mark W probably did not have L Jordan on any of his teams with a ranking of #24, the lowest of all staff by far (2nd lowest was #21). Mark W’s ranking of #50 for Larry Johnson was the worst of all staff, even if Priest had been healthy all year, Mark W was wrong. And his ranking of #45 for Tatum Bell was too low. Mark W diverged from the consensus pretty frequently, and he did not get it wrong everywhere. He had a few good calls. Rudi at #12 was the second highest ranking of all staff. Thomas Jones at #22 was the highest ranking, and Droughns at #31 was 2nd highest. Mark W knew M Bennett would have a bad year with the lowest ranking at #39. Ju Jones at #18 (vs consensus #11) was correct. Mike Anderson #19 was a good call as well (consensus #24). These good calls were nice, but they probably did not have the same impact to his teams as the bad calls.
Needs Improvement #3 – Andy Hicks
Andy probably ended up with McGahee (#4) and K Jones (#5) on many teams because he had the highest ranking of all staff on them
. C Martin #8 was extremely off from the consensus of #17 and far above anyone else (2nd highest ranking for C Mart was #13). C Mart had a bad season even if we ignore games missed to injuries. Ok, he played in other games while affected by injuries, but things did not turn out too well. If Andy had not been so far off from consensus, I could have dismissed that one from the bad call column. Warrick Dunn #28 and M Bennett at #24 were wrong. In the top 10, Andy missed out on Edge #7, Portis #12, and Tiki #10, all three he ranked a little below consensus. But one or two spots too low in the top 10 can be huge when those guys have good seasons. Andy correctly avoided A Green with the lowest ranking at #21 and had the 2nd highest ranking on W Parker.Others not mentioned who were middle of the road: Grant, Brown, Anderson, C Smith, Shick, Tremblay, David&Joe, and Gray. It was hard to evaluate Lammey and Baker because the rankings I got were from September 13th = after the season started. I don’t know to what extent I should give them credit for good calls like W Parker for example, knowing the kind of week #1 he had.
Last edited by a moderator:
But hey always wanted the cake and eat it too 
my new favorite board name 
Nice work putting this together.
