FBG Survivor League (1 Viewer)

[BassNBrew]

Dodds, myself, and others had some very spirited discussion about the various teams drafted and his simulation program's predictions. The primary purpose of this thread is to do a weekly analysis of why each team was booted and possibly use these conclusions to improve the sim program and as a reference for future drafts.

Week 1

Chase Stuart (S) - 165.6 (Receives Week 2 Amnesty)

Duckboy (MB) - 164.0

Mark Wimer (S) - 155.3

David Shick! (S) - 148.8

Team Legacy (MB) - 146.9

BassNBrew (MB) - 146.4

Fullback Fro (MB) - 138.5

Mike Anderson (S) - 133.6

Shawn Culcasi (S) - 127.9

William Grant (S) - 125.5

LHUCKS (MB) - 121.6

Abrecher (MB) - 117.6 (Booted Off Week 1)

8. abrecher

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Pos Player Team Pts * Week #

--- -------------------- ---- ----- - --------------------------------------

QB BRADY,TOM NE 15.5 P:11-23-1-163 R: 5- 3 TD:HFR5,P9,P17

QB CARR,DAVID HOU 16.9 P:18-27-0-208 R: 4- 25 TD25

RB ALEXANDER,SHAUN SEA 7.2 R:19- 51 C: 2- 1

RB ANDERSON,MIKE BAL 2.5 R: 7- 25

RB BARLOW,KEVAN NYJ 9.5 R:11- 35 TD:R1

RB DILLON,COREY NE 11.5 R:16- 73 C: 2- 22

RB MORRIS,MAURICE SEA 3.9 R: 3- 23 C: 1- 6

RB STALEY,DUCE PIT 0.0

WR CHAMBERS,CHRIS MIA 10.9 C: 5- 59

WR CURTIS,KEVIN STL 0.0

WR HARRISON,MARVIN IND 20.3 C: 9-113

WR NORTHCUTT,DENNIS CLE 7.7 C: 4- 37

WR ROGERS,CHARLES --- 0.0

WR SMITH,ROD DEN 6.4 C: 3- 34

TE LEWIS,MARCEDES JAX 0.0

TE SHOCKEY,JEREMY NYG 16.9 C: 5- 59 TD:C15

TE WIGGINS,JERMAINE MIN 7.9 C: 5- 29

PK AKERS,DAVID PHI 7.0 FGs:42 XPs:3/3

PK ELAM,JASON DEN 5.0 FGs:49 XPs:1/1

Def CLEVELAND CLE 5.0 FR:1 I:1-10 PA:19

Def KANSAS CITY KC 3.0 S:1-7 FR:1 PA:23

Def SEATTLE SEA 9.0 S:3-16 FR:1 PA:6

_____________________________ _____ ________________________________________

Starter Points = 0.0

Potential Points = 117.6

Start 1/2/3/1/1/1 plus a RB/WR/TE flex, ppr

Notes about this team:

2 QB / 6 RB / 6 WR / 3 TE / 2 K / 3 D

Round 1 pick and stud RB score was not used.

Flex score came from the TE position.

Two QBs, both posted serviceable and similiar scores.

1st 8 draft picks were RB/WR/WR/TE/RB/WR/QB/RB

Drafted the 2nd QB, 3rd TE, 1 K, and 12 D off the board.

abrecher finished the draft with only one viable starting RB (maybe 1.5) and 3 dependable WRs.

At the time of the draft the RBs consisted of one stud (SA), one RBBC (Dillon), 3 backups expected to see playing time (Anderson, Barlow, Staley), and 1 handcuff (Morris).

3rd TE and 3rd D did not post usable scores.

4 players did not post a score. Rogers was a camp casualty (semi-expected) and Lewis was the only injured player.

Team 1 2 3 4 5/6 7/8 9/10 11/12 Finals Legacy 123.1 119.7 116.6 135.4 242.7 257.6 272.5 265.2 544.8 Duckboy 125.5 129.7 102.9 137.6 267.2 250.1 271.9 257.3 526.3 abrecher 136.9 120.7 131.9 121.4 239.3 253.3 261.3 268.4 531.5 LHUCKS 122.3 122.6 137.6 120.5 244.5 239.8 265.1 246.8 515.9 Fullback Fro 129.4 137.6 119.1 127.9 244.1 250.1 271.0 258.0 540.3 Culcasi 134.9 130.1 132.4 132.4 254.6 262.7 245.2 278.0 548.9 Wimer 116.2 123.1 97.6 117.4 229.5 221.9 234.6 244.0 475.1 BassNBrew 118.2 118.5 135.6 126.6 240.0 246.0 252.4 266.1 502.8 Shick! 118.9 125.2 118.5 112.3 246.8 240.3 247.3 256.0 505.7 Anderson 133.9 124.6 123.2 125.6 250.3 247.0 251.1 278.1 526.9 Stuart 129.0 123.4 124.0 116.1 249.7 256.2 234.8 286.7 511.9 Grant 129.8 137.2 112.2 131.0 230.2 240.2 245.7 259.5 503.3The sim program had the bootee with a predicted score of 166.2 v. an actual of 117.6 (pretty amazing). However it had abrecher as the top predicted scorer in week 1 at 136.9. The actual high scorer was Chase at 165.6. Notes to self: Depth issues from the onset at RB/WR, weak RBs, handcuff in place, 6 WRs, bassnbrewrules.

SIM

 

[AB in DC]

Notes about this team:

2 QB / 6 RB / 6 WR / 3 TE / 2 K / 3 D

Round 1 pick and stud RB score was not used.

Flex score came from the TE position.

Two QBs, both posted serviceable and similiar scores.

1st 8 draft picks were RB/WR/WR/TE/RB/WR/QB/RB

Drafted the 2nd QB, 3rd TE, 1 K, and 12 D off the board.

abrecher finished the draft with only one viable starting RB (maybe 1.5) and 3 dependable WRs.

At the time of the draft the RBs consisted of one stud (SA), one RBBC (Dillon), 3 backups expected to see playing time (Anderson, Barlow, Staley), and 1 handcuff (Morris).

3rd TE and 3rd D did not post usable scores.

4 players did not post a score. Rogers was a camp casualty (semi-expected) and Lewis was the only injured player.

Not sure what you're getting at here. How do these notes improve the sim?

The sim program had the bootee with a predicted score of 116.2 v. an actual of 117.6 (pretty amazing). SIM

Fixed.

 

[AB in DC]

BTW, as I stated on the other thread, depth issues were not what killed me this week. Here are the critical draft picks, along with the other WR/RBs I considered taking at each spot:

Round 4: Shockey over Joseph Addai (7.8) or Thomas Jones (7.3)

Round 7: Brady over Marion Barber (4.6)

Round 9: Curtis over Mark Clayton (3.0)

Round 11: Staley over Greg Jones (0.0) (or Philip Rivers (8.9))

Round 14: Elam over Arnaz Battle (3.7)

Round 15: Wiggins over Battle or Jabar Gaffney (0.0)

Round 16: Rogers over Marcus Robinson (9.0)

Round 20: Chiefs D over Robinson

As you see, the only player on this list who would have helped this week was Robinson, who would given me a whopping 1.1 points.

That said, I agree that the sim needs a lot of work. But the sim's real flaw is simply assigning each player their mean expectd points for the week, with quality of opponent the only factor. A good sim should take a probablistic look at each player (or each NFL team) and run a Monte Carlo simluation of expected outcomes.

 

[AB in DC]

Also, I think it's important to separate simulation error from projection error. For this week, the sim used data that overstated the value of several of my players (e.g. Brady, Curtis). But that's not a problem with the sim, that's a problem with the data that's fed into it. You could have a perfect simluation, but if you feed garbage in, you get garbage out.

BTW, think about what would have happened if I had simply drafted McNabb instead of Brady. Then LHUCKS is the loser for the week, and his team looks nothing like mine. You'd be drawing completely different conclusions. So be careful about doing any kind of analysis based on just one week.

 

[BassNBrew]

Also, I think it's important to separate simulation error from projection error. For this week, the sim used data that overstated the value of several of my players (e.g. Brady, Curtis). But that's not a problem with the sim, that's a problem with the data that's fed into it. You could have a perfect simluation, but if you feed garbage in, you get garbage out.BTW, think about what would have happened if I had simply drafted McNabb instead of Brady. Then LHUCKS is the loser for the week, and his team looks nothing like mine. You'd be drawing completely different conclusions. So be careful about doing any kind of analysis based on just one week.

You make many valid points, especially in the previous post. Monte Carlo analysis would have likely highlighted the lack of depth.I'll try to do this each week and save any conclusions until the end of the year.

 

[BassNBrew]

Week 2

Duckboy (MB) - 179.6 (Receives Week 3 Amnesty)

Mark Wimer (S) - 165.5

BassNBrew (MB) - 155.0

Team Legacy (MB) - 153.8

LHUCKS (MB) - 151.8

Mike Anderson (S) - 151.4

Chase Stuart (S) - 147.0 (Received Week 2 Amnesty)

William Grant (S) - 146.3

Fullback Fro (MB) - 136.2

Shawn Culcasi (S) - 129.3

David Shick! (S) - 120.3 (Booted Off Week 2)

Abrecher (MB) - Booted Off Week 1

Players left: Staff = 5, Message Board = 5

3. Shick! Happens

David Shick!

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pos Player Team Pts * Week #

--- -------------------- ---- ----- - ----------------------------------------

QB FRYE,CHARLIE CLE 17.2 P:20-33-2-244 R: 4- 10 TD:R2

QB PLUMMER,JAKE DEN 7.5 P:16-30-1-173 R: 2- -2

QB VICK,MICHAEL ATL 26.3 P:10-15-1- 92 R:14-127 TD:R1,P4

RB BROWN,CHRIS TEN 1.9 R: 6- 9 C: 1- 0

RB BUSH,REGGIE NO 15.3 R: 6- 5 C: 8- 68

RB GORE,FRANK SF 21.7 R:29-127 C: 2- 10 TD:R32

RB MARTIN,CURTIS NYJ 0.0

RB WILLIAMS,CARNELL TB 3.7 R:15- 37

WR BATTLE,ARNAZ SF 10.8 C: 3- 78

WR ENGRAM,BOBBY SEA 9.5 C: 4- 51 R: 1- 4

WR HALL,DANTE KC 1.6 C: 1- 6

WR HOLMES,SANTONIO PIT 2.5 C: 1- 15

WR MOSS,SANTANA WAS 12.8 C: 4- 69 R: 1- 19

WR PARKER,ERIC SD 3.5 C: 1- 25

WR SMITH,STEVE CAR 0.0

WR WATTS,DARIUS --- 0.0

TE CRUMPLER,ALGE ATL 3.2 C: 1- 22

TE MILLER,HEATH PIT 2.1 C: 1- 11

PK MARE,OLINDO MIA 0.0 FGs:-55

PK SCOBEE,JOSH JAX 10.0 FGs:32,42,31

Def NEW ENGLAND NE 7.0 S:4-20 I:1-8 PA:17

Def TENNESSEE TEN 0.0 PA:40

_____________________________ _____ __________________________________________

Starter Points = 0.0

Potential Points = 120.3

More to follow...

 

[BassNBrew]

Week 3

BassNBrew (MB) - 185.3 (Receives Week 4 Amnesty)

Team Legacy (MB) - 177.8

Duckboy (MB) - 174.0 (Received Week 3 Amnesty)

Shawn Culcasi (S) - 169.8

LHUCKS (MB) - 166.8

William Grant (S) - 131.9

Chase Stuart (S) - 127.3

Mark Wimer (S) - 120.8

Mike Anderson (S) - 113.9

Fullback Fro (MB) - 111.0 (Booted Off Week 3)

David Shick! (S) - Booted Off Week 2

Abrecher (MB) - Booted Off Week 1

Players left: Staff = 5, Message Board = 4

11. Fullback Fro

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pos Player Team Pts * Week #

--- -------------------- ---- ----- - ----------------------------------------

QB JOHNSON,BRAD MIN 9.7 P:21-31-0-194 R: 1- 0

QB MCNABB,DONOVAN PHI 22.9 P:18-33-0-296 R: 3- 1 TD4,P1

QB MCNAIR,STEVE BAL 17.0 P:23-41-0-264 R: 2- -2 TD3

RB ADDAI,JOSEPH IND 5.8 R: 3- 15 C: 3- 13

RB BARBER,TIKI NYG 11.8 R:14- 64 C: 4- 14

RB HAYNES,VERRON PIT 10.7 R: 5- 24 C: 5- 33

RB MOORE,MEWELDE MIN 7.1 R: 3- 23 C: 3- 18

RB TAYLOR,CHESTER MIN 11.9 R:20- 74 C: 3- 15

WR BRANCH,DEION SEA 5.1 C: 2- 23 R: 1- 8

WR CLAYTON,MARK BAL 14.8 C: 8- 74 R: 1- -6

WR HORN,JOE NO 7.7 C: 3- 47

WR JACKSON,CHAD NE 0.0

WR MCCARDELL,KEENAN SD 0.0

WR MOSS,SINORICE NYG 0.0

WR OWENS,TERRELL DAL 0.0

TE PUTZIER,JEB HOU 2.2 C: 1- 12

TE TROUPE,BEN TEN 6.1 C: 2- 41

PK BROWN,KRIS HOU 1.0 XPs:1/1

PK NEDNEY,JOE SF 7.0 FGs:48 XPs:3/3

Def ARIZONA ARI 6.0 S:1-8 FR:2 PA:16

Def CINCINNATI CIN 13.0 S:3-13 FR:2 I:3-73 PA:20

Def SAN DIEGO SD 0.0

_____________________________ _____ __________________________________________

Starter Points = 0.0

Potential Points = 111.0

More to follow

 

[BassNBrew]

Tracking Dodds' odds to the final four.

1. Culcasi - 3/1

2. Legacy - 4/1

3. Fullback Fro - 6/1 - 3rd boot

4. Anderson - 8/1

5. Duckboy - 10/1

6. abrecher - 12/1 - 1st boot

7. Stuart - 15/1

8. LHUCKS - 18/1

9. BassNBrew - 20/1

10. Grant - 25/1

11. Shick - 25/1 - 2nd boot

12. Wimer - 300/1

 

[Sinrman]

Week 3BassNBrew (MB) - 185.3 (Receives Week 4 Amnesty)Team Legacy (MB) - 177.8Duckboy (MB) - 174.0 (Received Week 3 Amnesty)Shawn Culcasi (S) - 169.8LHUCKS (MB) - 166.8 William Grant (S) - 131.9Chase Stuart (S) - 127.3 Mark Wimer (S) - 120.8Mike Anderson (S) - 113.9 Fullback Fro (MB) - 111.0 (Booted Off Week 3)David Shick! (S) - Booted Off Week 2Abrecher (MB) - Booted Off Week 1Players left: Staff = 5, Message Board = 411. Fullback Fro------------------------------------------------------------------------------Pos Player Team Pts * Week #--- -------------------- ---- ----- - ----------------------------------------QB JOHNSON,BRAD MIN 9.7 P:21-31-0-194 R: 1- 0QB MCNABB,DONOVAN PHI 22.9 P:18-33-0-296 R: 3- 1 TD4,P1QB MCNAIR,STEVE BAL 17.0 P:23-41-0-264 R: 2- -2 TD3RB ADDAI,JOSEPH IND 5.8 R: 3- 15 C: 3- 13RB BARBER,TIKI NYG 11.8 R:14- 64 C: 4- 14RB HAYNES,VERRON PIT 10.7 R: 5- 24 C: 5- 33RB MOORE,MEWELDE MIN 7.1 R: 3- 23 C: 3- 18RB TAYLOR,CHESTER MIN 11.9 R:20- 74 C: 3- 15WR BRANCH,DEION SEA 5.1 C: 2- 23 R: 1- 8WR CLAYTON,MARK BAL 14.8 C: 8- 74 R: 1- -6WR HORN,JOE NO 7.7 C: 3- 47WR JACKSON,CHAD NE 0.0WR MCCARDELL,KEENAN SD 0.0WR MOSS,SINORICE NYG 0.0WR OWENS,TERRELL DAL 0.0TE PUTZIER,JEB HOU 2.2 C: 1- 12TE TROUPE,BEN TEN 6.1 C: 2- 41PK BROWN,KRIS HOU 1.0 XPs:1/1PK NEDNEY,JOE SF 7.0 FGs:48 XPs:3/3Def ARIZONA ARI 6.0 S:1-8 FR:2 PA:16Def CINCINNATI CIN 13.0 S:3-13 FR:2 I:3-73 PA:20Def SAN DIEGO SD 0.0_____________________________ _____ __________________________________________ Starter Points = 0.0 Potential Points = 111.0More to follow

I can pretty much attribute Fullback's demise to taking a LOT of risks on young guys. Chad Jackson? Sinorice Moss? Joseph Addai? Mark Clayton? You also have some veterans that were risky going into the season too -- Deion Branch (who at the time of their draft was looking like he was going to hold out until Week 10!) and Terrell Owens. Then you have others, like Joe Horn, who was bouncing back from a horrible year. You never know how they will bounce back, or if they will at all. And also Keenan McCardell, who had a tremendous year last year, but has an unknown QB throwing the ball now (who has been used very conservatively).It's no surprise to me that he got booted early... He had a big boom/bust mentality apparently in going into this, which you sometimes have to have going into these things. Unfortunately for him, they started off very slowly, hence the boot.