hooligans817
Footballguy
I've listened to all the recommendations the past 3 weeks in NFL and college and have lost. Sorry but thanks for nothing.
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FBG...what's happening? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter hooligans817
- Start date
mitchh1124
Footballguy
its recommendations...just like a stock market
broker might recommend x or x..doesn't mean its gonna profit.
broker might recommend x or x..doesn't mean its gonna profit.
mitchh1124
Footballguy
the more and more I play
i realize this is pure luck. basically hardly any skill involved this DFS
once my money runs out i am done.
injuries = pure luck
players going off = pure luck
what is skilled about this?
who ever has the most money to put in the most entries is going to win.
like having 500 lottery tickets
someone buys 400
has a better chance to win something than 100 people buying the last 100
doug martin has 235 RY today
winston has 5 TD passes.
1 week Amari Cooper has 100 yards and 2 touchdowns
today he has 1 catch for 4 yards..
i realize this is pure luck. basically hardly any skill involved this DFS
once my money runs out i am done.
injuries = pure luck
players going off = pure luck
what is skilled about this?
who ever has the most money to put in the most entries is going to win.
like having 500 lottery tickets
someone buys 400
has a better chance to win something than 100 people buying the last 100
doug martin has 235 RY today
winston has 5 TD passes.
1 week Amari Cooper has 100 yards and 2 touchdowns
today he has 1 catch for 4 yards..
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Projections across the board are not as good this year. In game injuries have been brutal and I suspect the public is a having a tough year nailing these games based on how often Vegas has been off. Overlay hunting is the key to having a chance.
mitchh1124
Footballguy
skill seems to be something im in control of.
i am not really in control of any of these players/games.
i am not really in control of any of these players/games.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
That's what bankroll mgmt is about. Skill will play out over time, unfortunately it's only a 17 week season. NFL is more for fun, NBA probably involves a lot more skill.
mitchh1124
Footballguy
i manage bank fine
10 percent of bank each time i play
but someone who has 10 percent at 1000 dollars vs 10 dollars
i wonder who can use riskier players and make all kinds of rosters?
like last week winning million with Ben Roth..who was never suppose to play..lol
that is a waste of money....but ended up making massive money.
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NixonMask
Footballguy
low dollar 50/50s is what you should mostly be playing until you're playing thousands each week. If you're playing low dollar 50/50s you shouldn't care about high variance low owned players. The entire point of a tournament is one person wins alot and most win nothing
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
Winning a large tournament is mostly luck.
Winning a 50/50 involves some skill.
Winning a 50/50 involves some skill.
SpruceGoose
Footballguy
youre probably losing because your going along w/ the herd.
Its up to you to do your own research...not just blindly listen to someone on the internet.
I tend to find that most people fall into two groups:
1. They dont believe in themselves...This guy doesnt make a move w/o the approval of someone else. Way too trusting. This guy gets his lifesavings taken...or buy stocks based on a screaming Jim Kramer.
2. They believe in themselves too much. This guy knows everything and think he has all the answers. He could be getting sued, and think that his time watching Peoples Court makes him an expert in law.
We all should only be listening to other people in order to hear a different perspective...not because you want someone to hold your hand in the decision making process.
The reason DFS is fun is because of the variance involved...thats the risk we all take.
If there was no variance...how would this be fun?
Its up to you to do your own research...not just blindly listen to someone on the internet.
I tend to find that most people fall into two groups:
1. They dont believe in themselves...This guy doesnt make a move w/o the approval of someone else. Way too trusting. This guy gets his lifesavings taken...or buy stocks based on a screaming Jim Kramer.
2. They believe in themselves too much. This guy knows everything and think he has all the answers. He could be getting sued, and think that his time watching Peoples Court makes him an expert in law.
We all should only be listening to other people in order to hear a different perspective...not because you want someone to hold your hand in the decision making process.
The reason DFS is fun is because of the variance involved...thats the risk we all take.
If there was no variance...how would this be fun?
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I sure didn't win the million but got a little bit starting him and antonio.
I started him because if he's warming up and practicing, no way he's sitting. Even when all the Landry Jones articles came I was...nope not buying it. So I was dead wrong for a little bit til he got hurt, then got lucky there
I understand this sentiment.
Ya gotta play more than one "hand" here. A few lineups at least.
Amari had a nice matchup I blanked on him too.
Martin was predictable as the Eagles have allowed 150ish ypg the last few weeks. Not 235 but a very good game
I can't predict Winston and Mariota
Eagles pass D hasn't been much better. I read it wrong and went with VJax and Evans, should have been Winston.
I'm a big proponent of FBGs.
I don't like their many staff member DFS coverage but do like the multiple opinions for regular FF.
I grab someone's thoughts/rankings and focus on them only.
I like the multi-faceted options for an upcoming draft because I want some ideas when unpredictability rolls my way and which players other drafters might think will do well.
DFS feels very focused for me, gotta be an individual IMO. I don't even care if I agree with personX. A nice routine of "good call" "nah not him" works just fine.
If you have 5 staff members recommending 5 top WRs but 3 spots, who do you disregard? And why don't they agree? It's just...I don't like many opinions there. It leaves me with more questions than answers.
Maurile and DD are very bright clever mathematicians. At week 11-->12, you might consider either ignoring some of their concepts or slotting away some time to really read and dig into it. It's not a quick read and apply IMO. DD had a blog last year that only made some sense to me. After a year of DFS I was like ohhhh he means that...and it was totally different. To each his own here, trying to pass along my experience to help. Disregarding complex articles, I would recommend their picks if you're looking for a quickie here.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Coming in 1st out of 250,000 entries is just luck. Even if you are so skilled that you are 20 times more likely to win than the average player (a level of skill that no one has), then you have a 1-in-12,500 of winning.
Play the 50/50s and double-ups. Then you have to finish in the top 50th percentile (or top 44th) to win. You don't have to be the best, just a touch above average.
And I think people need to manage their expectations. Look at the data that's been released about the "pros". Yeah, they win a lot of money, but they risk a ton of money. Those guys as a group aren't returning 10% on their investment. If you expect to win every week, you're delusional. If you win 2 out of 3 50/50s, that's a good ROI.
Play the 50/50s and double-ups. Then you have to finish in the top 50th percentile (or top 44th) to win. You don't have to be the best, just a touch above average.
And I think people need to manage their expectations. Look at the data that's been released about the "pros". Yeah, they win a lot of money, but they risk a ton of money. Those guys as a group aren't returning 10% on their investment. If you expect to win every week, you're delusional. If you win 2 out of 3 50/50s, that's a good ROI.
I listened to my own recommendations the past 3 weeks in the NFL and lost. Thanks for nothing me.
Looks like this week might flip it back to winning ways of the first 7 weeks though.
Wow! There are a lot of really frustrated folks today with all things DFS. Directed more at the thread in the Shark Pool. Personally, stopped going to the Shark Pool years ago ... became unreadable ... and realized that again after visiting the thread there about DFS.
Things are far more civil among the few active posters in the DFS area
hooligans ...
I am not a pro and have been playing right at a year. I am winning cash games at 81%. I am cashing in GPP right around 50% of the time, which puts me in the black. I play NFL and taught myself NBA. Dabbled in baseball for a week. Finally played CFB this past weekend. And tinkered with NHL the last NBA All Star break.
I am not a math savant nor do I have the time/patience to build an elaborate program, algorithm and spreadsheet projection
I am operating with a far great knowledge of football than the average person on DFS. Talking strict X/O and concepts of the game.
Here is what I have sorted out ...
The average person producing content around DFS is also playing. The are essentially playing you in an system in which they are providing you with direction. And this is for money. So they hedge.
You'll never hear the average talking DFS head go 100% against a player or 100% for a player. The comments are always guarded, as not to be right or wrong
And you're never going to get THEIR specific line-up. It isn't going to happen. Again, we are all playing in the same system for money
I have also fond the average DFS writer knows average to SIGNIFICANTLY nothing about tactical aspects of football. This is how I cover for my lack of advanced programming and math skills
Consider looking into a few of these things ...
Begin to understand primary defensive statistics. YPC, YPA, OBR allowed, RZ D efficiency, pass rush effectiveness, 3rd down defense
Understand the 4-3 v 3-4
Understand those same offensive statistics. Understand how an offensive scheme matches up against a defensive philosophy. Understand targets and offensive usage
Understand the Vegas line; game totals and money movement over the week. Start here ... every week ... when the lines become available
Download the player's salaries early each week. Minus any research consider the salary against the match-up
Do some research. Look at NFL.Com; numberFire and Football Outsiders
Identify the soft salaried players. Identify the players in games with high totals. Identify the guys with great match-ups
Create your own list of 15-20 guys and work backwards
Then, find 1-3 voices in the industry YOU trust. Compare their thoughts to yours
Trust your own work
Now, do I feel the FBG projections for DFS are accurate? I would define them as adequate and no better/worse than others
Do I solely leverage their work if/when I enter a cash game? Absolutely not
I do use the IVC tool. I love that thing. For a guy like me ... on life's short bus of math/computers ... it is a steal. It allows me to manipulate information. It gives me an idea of what other smart people are thinking. It also gives me an idea if my gut is right.
I am super jealous of the guys in the DFS threads here that build these massive programs that do all their work for them. I have to gather information in a long-handed manner and I am only saved by the fact I simply know that much more about the minutia of football.
If you want to follow someone on FBG that really knows his proverbial blank on DFS, check into John Lee's work. Beyond that ... you have to trust your own judgement.
Take a reset. Observe winning line-ups in your cash games. What did they do that you did not?
Last suggestion ...
Have a weekly process for football. This is mine ...
- Enter dummy/placeholder line-ups first thing Monday
- Download the player CSV
- Pull the Vegas line on Tuesday
- Look at nothing but game totals and individual salaries
- On Wednesday pull updated NFL statistics in those categories that I feel matter
- Compare to Vegas and salaries
- Take a first pass in the IVR at potential line-ups
- Have identified the top 3 QB play; top 4-6 RB; top 5 WR; top 2 TE; top 3 D and top 3 K
- Thursday ... look for any line movements. Major swings
- Check into injury report ... who practiced and such
- Enter a few cheap, large field GPP and DU in the Thur-Mon games just to get a glimpse of ownership% on guys I anticipate using for cash and GPP
- Friday ... more line movement and more swings
- Friday ... more injury reports
- Friday night ... build line-ups
- Saturday ... line movement and last injury report. Revisit GPP line-ups. Last minute changes to cash line-ups
- Sunday ... start watching NFL Channel at 6 AM. Check Twitter feeds
- Sunday ... only change based on injuries
Scoresman
Footballguy
Experts across the board have been wrong the last few weeks, that is for sure. If any of them say they've been making money recently especially in cash games, then I have to wonder if they play with the same guys they tout all week.
Of course injuries to guys like Freeman cant be predicted so it's nobody's fault really when it comes to that.
I think regression comes into play very, very often. I faded Carr this week because of it. Matchup be damned I figured OAK travelling east was a good a time as any for Carr to come back down to earth. The problem with regression is that you cant predict it very well. It WILL happen to most guys.
Of course injuries to guys like Freeman cant be predicted so it's nobody's fault really when it comes to that.
I think regression comes into play very, very often. I faded Carr this week because of it. Matchup be damned I figured OAK travelling east was a good a time as any for Carr to come back down to earth. The problem with regression is that you cant predict it very well. It WILL happen to most guys.
sdp1226
Footballguy
Solid first post!!Welcome to the boards, we look forward to the rest of your contributions.
TSquaredUA
Footballguy
I used FBG projections last season and turned $40K into $85K. I'm using them again this season and am down $2K.
But anyone that has watched the NFL for more than 1 season should know that this has been a fluke season due mostly to a lot of injuries to key players and teams either greatly exceeding or coming up far short of their Vegas projected team total. LeVeon, Freeman, and West injuries alone cost me $20K.
FBG projections remain the most accurate in the industry.
But anyone that has watched the NFL for more than 1 season should know that this has been a fluke season due mostly to a lot of injuries to key players and teams either greatly exceeding or coming up far short of their Vegas projected team total. LeVeon, Freeman, and West injuries alone cost me $20K.
FBG projections remain the most accurate in the industry.
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Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Compared to what though? Did anyone out there have projections that resulted in big scores this week? If they did, not many folks were using them on FD or DK. As I said in another thread, our results are graded on a curve. The curve was very friendly the last 2 weeks because everyone missed on their projections.
This
Vegas traditionally comes online around W4 of the season. They are having a rough year ... ROUGH year. Those game totals are the leading indicator of where to start shopping for line-up pieces. Vegas has been off a fair amount.
The injuries ... cannot be predicted but from memory this is the worst season I can recall.
The cash game lineups have been absolutely brutal
Actually, they were pretty good. Out of the 128 "experts" tracked by FantasyPros, Bloom was #2, Dodds was #8, and I was #40. (I was #4 the previous week. All of us are top 30 on the season.)
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Clorox
Footballguy
I'm superstitious, so I keep thinking that the week I stop tailing is the bounce back week. Maybe I should do that soon and do you all a favor ? My now-low bankroll might not give me a choice.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Here are the optimum lineups for each of you last week.
MT - Smith, Freeman, McFadden, Hopkins, Brown, Fitz, Kelce, Catanzoro, Seattle
DD - Smith, Freeman, West, DT, Fitz, Johnson (Cooper), Olsen (Gates), Gart, Seattle
SB - Newton (Yates), Martin, Gore (Murray), Fitz, Amendola, S. Jonson (Calvin), Gronk, Gart, Seattle
When it comes to dfs, it's not about the accuracy of your projections as a whole, it's about the accuracy at the top of the list.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
So, 109 (w/ Freeman), 114.34 + "Gart" (I don't know who that is), and 98.46 + "Gart" didn't dominate cash games for you? You must have been playing a different game than me.
The only loser of the bunch was the DD (79.32 + "Gart") and he had the bad luck of having Freeman AND West on his. (Plus Smith had a really weird lack of TDs in a game he otherwise dominated.)
Like I've said before, we grade in an absolute curve. SB and MT likely dominated cash play with those lineups.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Gart = NE kicker
Bloom killed it. I run with DD solo or "avg". Dodds has killed it in year's past. He's not having a great year. He's caught a really bad run of guys who get hurt. Throw in a few misses like Cooper plus the rake and it's gets ugly quick.
Personally I did well last week crushing the 4pm slate using FBG numbers. I don't play FD regular slate because I don't think it's beatable on a long term basis and overlays exist elsewhere. When I like the short slates I'll play them with FBG numbers.
My point was that you can nail 90% of the projections on the money (hence score well at FantasyPros), but if the 10% you miss on are at the top you won't have a good dfs week.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
I get that, but the bashing on these guys after last week by some folks is completely misplaced IMO. I happened to fade Freeman, but that dude looked dominant early before his unfortunate injury. Picking him was absolutely the right call for prognosticators. I just didn't see anything from these guys that was glaringly bad with the exception of fluky stuff, aside from arguably the Oakland offense. I could see the issues with the cross-country travel, but that was way beyond that. Cooper scoring 0.9 was something no one predicted.
Apple Jack
Footballguy
This is some next level lol-worthy whining.
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
I've played and been fairly profitable over the past two years, and I've come to strongly believe that you can't just rely on projections for football. my experience is that projections tend to underestimate the effect of matchups and other qualitative aspects of football. that can mean anything from a RB going up against a tough run defense, to a WR going against a tough CB who will shadow him. another really good and often overlooked example would be what I've heard referred to as a 'gameplan offense'. theoretically every team should fall into this category, but in practice the Patriots seem to be the best example. they craft a gameplan that gives them the best chance to win against their particular opponent and accounting for any injuries they might be dealing with, and they go all in on this gameplan. so, if they're going up against a team that stops the run really well and they've also lost their best run blocking OL, it wouldn't be uncommon to see Brady throw it 45 times, when in the previous week they may have run it 35 times. of course, this can easily be accounted for in a mathematical projection system, I just never really see it done.
so, the moral is you can't blindly use site projections, specifically for football (I actually think you can for baseball), and expect to win. FBG projections are a great starting and reference point imo, but if you actually want to be +EV, you need to put in research beyond tweaking the IVC to find the 'optimum lineup'. if you don't want to put in the time, then don't play. if you still want to play but don't want to put in the time, that's fine too, but at that point you can't really blame whatever site you're using, imo.
so, the moral is you can't blindly use site projections, specifically for football (I actually think you can for baseball), and expect to win. FBG projections are a great starting and reference point imo, but if you actually want to be +EV, you need to put in research beyond tweaking the IVC to find the 'optimum lineup'. if you don't want to put in the time, then don't play. if you still want to play but don't want to put in the time, that's fine too, but at that point you can't really blame whatever site you're using, imo.
Apple Jack
Footballguy
You also can't use just one lineup and expect to win. Football is not that predictable.
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
another good point. the NFL is a pretty high variance sport. it's not inconceivable to think that you could be a net loser for an entire season even when entering a single +EV lineup every week.
Andrew Garda
Moderator
An earlier point was talking about many experts on sites not knowing the Xs and Os of football and that might be true - but pound for pound I would say we have more on the ground knowledge of that than any site out there. Lammey, myself, Bloom, Waldman, Bramel all have various experience and tremendous knowledge of the finer aspects of the game and those are only the people off the very top of my head and limited by a lack of sleep.
FWIW
And I'd say this is the most brutal fantasy season we've seen in a long time. I can't recall so many chalk plays getting hurt week in and week out.
I think having a working knowledge of football Xs and Os can only help. I also think what was outlined earlier in terms of the way to approach your DFS is week is solid. But as far as the cash lineups - I can only speak for myself but I play more than one lineup and sometimes will change a lineup Sunday morning. So you're getting just one of maybe three lineups I trot out even playing a lower amount of cash entries.
I think that's important to keep in mind - you can't just hold one lineup and call it a day. You have to approach a contest from a few different ways.
FWIW
And I'd say this is the most brutal fantasy season we've seen in a long time. I can't recall so many chalk plays getting hurt week in and week out.
I think having a working knowledge of football Xs and Os can only help. I also think what was outlined earlier in terms of the way to approach your DFS is week is solid. But as far as the cash lineups - I can only speak for myself but I play more than one lineup and sometimes will change a lineup Sunday morning. So you're getting just one of maybe three lineups I trot out even playing a lower amount of cash entries.
I think that's important to keep in mind - you can't just hold one lineup and call it a day. You have to approach a contest from a few different ways.
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bagger
Footballguy
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
I'm sure all the guys who won money yesterday knew in advance that Andy Dalton was going to get injured.
Scoresman
Footballguy
I'm on my sixth or seventh straight winning week (cash games) after getting my research process/spreadsheet down. Beginning to see and agree with the "game of skill" aspect to DFS.
Of course you cant eliminate luck altogether, but you CAN minimize your exposure to it so that over a long duration, you're +EV.
Of course you cant eliminate luck altogether, but you CAN minimize your exposure to it so that over a long duration, you're +EV.
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
material element of luck, sure. no different from poker. i still think it will get legalized and regulated, but no way to say for certain. hopefully that leads to the legalization of other forms of sportsbetting and online poker in the process.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
IMO, there is simply no substitute for at least doing a little bit of leg work on your own. From the other thread it sounds like you've graduated far beyond my spreadsheets, but I tend to be less specific in my analysis because I will fall in love with definite numbers if I have them. I found the FBG App a distraction, for example, even though I think it's great work from those guys. But whatever works for you, keep doing it. There's more than 1 way to skin that cat, but I firmly believe that just lifting someone else's projections and riding that without anything more is destined to fail over the long haul.Scoresman said:
Scoresman
Footballguy
Absolutely true. For all the numbers I crunch, if a lineup doesn't feel good in my gut, it gets tossed. I form my basic opinion on popular players as the week goes on via twitter, various weekly articles I read, and then I use my spreadsheets as a sort of confirmation that they are indeed good plays.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
I arrive at my lineups generally on my own then cross reference my work against other folks (FBG, articles, different boards, etc.) to see if I'm in left field. If so, I figure out what the disconnect is. If not, I just rock on. My starting point is always my work product though.
