FBGs lists 6 great & 6 good matchups this week (1 Viewer)

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

That's a lil odd no? I can't remember a weekend ever, where NO receiver put up 100 yards. I mean the Lions, rams and browns don't have week 2 byes do they?

 

[Saeniph]

You should view projections as the 'mean' output. Think of it as the center of a bell-shaped curve. Therefore, there's a probability distribution involved.

A receiver with a mean near 100 has a much greater chance of clearing 100 (one or less standard deviations away) but as we know, nothing is guaranteed in this game.

 

[JMJ]

By doing that he can be conservative in an attempt to being closer to correct no matter what happens.

If he lists a WR to get 80 yards ... whether they have a good game and get 110 or a crappy game and get 50 ... he is within 30 yards either way which isn't bad.

If he lists the WR should get 110 and then they only get 50, now he was off by more than 100% and looks like he blew it.

Is that what he is definitely doing? Absolutely not. Is that what it looks like he is doing? Yes. Is that what a lot of us would probably try to do also if we put all of our predictions out there for every player, every week? Yes.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

You should view projections as the 'mean' output.

Right. If you're projecting a coin flip, you'd project 0.5 heads and 0.5 tails per flip.That doesn't mean you think the coin will land half on heads and half on tails every time.If I project a WR to get 80 yards, that probably means I think there's about a 20% chance that he'll go over 100. If I project 10 different WRs to get 80 yards (each one with a 20% chance of going over 100), it follows that I think there's about an 89% chance that at least one will go over 100. So it wouldn't be right to say that I don't expect any to go over 100 in that scenario -- even though none of them individually are projected to.