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Felix Jones (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ketamine Dreams
- Start date
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Dam.. thats a lot of Reps..
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
And I highlighted the similars.. no 2 players are going to be the same... especially in a series of tests.I'm just saying.. K Faulk's usage in NE is a great example of how I picture Jones being used in Dal.KellysHeroes said:
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Theres more than Running speed to be an NFL RB... Chest Strengh helps w/ Breaking Tackles and Holding onto the Ball. 2 Things that Westy does very very well.Second time that's been pointed out in this thread.
switz
Footballguy
Not actually... in many sources he was ranked 5th.And if you really believe none of this year's RBs would be drafted higher than Faulk was that year, it's not worth talking about this anymore.
Phurfur
Footballguy
I think he is saying no RB would be drafted higher than #3 which would put them ahead of Faulk.
switz
Footballguy
Actually, any RB drafted #3 would put them ahead of Faulk, as if all these RBs were in the same class as Edge and Ricky, and Faulk, I could easily see a few taken before Edge (McFadden and Stewart) and about 5 more taken before Faulk.To say that none of these would be drafted higher than #3 in that class makes them equal to Faulk since he was drafted #3 is incorrect. Even if we agreed that none of these guys would be drafted ahead of Edge or Ricky, that doesn't say anything about them in comparison to Faulk.
FUBAR
Footballguy
You're clearly buying into the hype if you think Stew would go before Edge. Maybe McFadden, but I doubt it. All I said was they wouldn't have ranked any higher, in comparison to the RBs, than he did.Bottom line here, I see Jones as closer to KFaulk than Westbrook or Bush. You disagree, so be it. Time will tell.
prymetyme25
Footballguy
I know I'll get smashed for this but I see the same potential in Jones that I saw in Portis. Both guys or pure electricity when they get the ball. Now I dont know if Jones has the same work ethic as Portis but I clearly remember alot of people saying that Portis was just a COP and that he was too small. Heck even his coach said it. Both guys have comparable size and speed although I think portis had alittle more upper body strength and build.
switz
Footballguy
Actually, I'm not all that high on Stewart, if you read any of my posts. But realistically, it would not have been shocking if he or McFadden went before Edge. They would have been in the same tier, below Ricky.Then Mendenhall.Then Johnson, Jones.Then Smith, Forte.Then Charles and Faulk.After a player has been in the pros, we judge them by their pro career, we often forget how they were perceived coming into the league.You're clearly buying into the hype if you think Stew would go before Edge. Maybe McFadden, but I doubt it. All I said was they wouldn't have ranked any higher, in comparison to the RBs, than he did.Bottom line here, I see Jones as closer to KFaulk than Westbrook or Bush. You disagree, so be it. Time will tell.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
When u Guys are saying that Any of the big 3 would be taken before Edge.. then your saying that they would be the 1st off the board, right.
Wasn't Ricky passed up by the Colts and they selected James... even though Ricky was rated higher.
DMac may of been drafted in the same area has Edge and Ricky, w/ in the top 10 picks... but no way Stewart and Mendenhall would.
Wasn't Ricky passed up by the Colts and they selected James... even though Ricky was rated higher.
DMac may of been drafted in the same area has Edge and Ricky, w/ in the top 10 picks... but no way Stewart and Mendenhall would.
FUBAR
Footballguy
At least we agree on one thing.In all reality, where they would have been drafted is pretty meaningless when it comes to how they will do, or have done, in the NFL. For RBs, a lot has to do with the team they're on, after the truly elite anyway. (I don't think you're even saying Jones is elite.)Actually, I'm not all that high on Stewart, if you read any of my posts. But realistically, it would not have been shocking if he or McFadden went before Edge. They would have been in the same tier, below Ricky.Then Mendenhall.You're clearly buying into the hype if you think Stew would go before Edge. Maybe McFadden, but I doubt it.
All I said was they wouldn't have ranked any higher, in comparison to the RBs, than he did.
Bottom line here, I see Jones as closer to KFaulk than Westbrook or Bush. You disagree, so be it. Time will tell.
Then Johnson, Jones.
Then Smith, Forte.
Then Charles and Faulk.
After a player has been in the pros, we judge them by their pro career, we often forget how they were perceived coming into the league.
At least one site ranked Edge the Top RB
Polian has proven himself to be one of the best drafters in the NFL. Ditka was absolutely in love with Ricky.
Al Davis (senile) might like McFadden a lot, but even he wouldn't take Mac ahead of Edge or Ricky (Ok, maybe HE would, no sane person would). Stew isn't in the same class, if he was, he would have gone before 1.13.
How far can we go on this tangent?
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switz
Footballguy
Yes Edge was the first taken, but not the consensus #1 back in the draft (until after the fact). My contention was that if we took the 99 and 08 classes of RBs and put them all together, it wouldn't necessarily fall out the same way. DMac, Stewart, Ricky, Edge all would have been viewed as the top backs in the class. It may still have gone Edge Ricky DMac Stewart, but maybe not. Their estimated talent level entering the NFL is estimated very closely.As for Faulk, he is clearly not among the top-7 to 8 backs drafted this year.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Getting back to the subject...
JJ avg 11.75 touches a game last yr / MBIII avg 15.5
Dallas was 21th in the league w/ 419 attempts... I would say that # increases this yr as well... 450 would be the ceiling (that would put them in the top 10 of attempts, so that # maybe high).
MBIII load should increase now that their paying him 47M and hes the starter... I would venture that they limit him too 300 carries which equals 18.75 carries a game. Toss in 20 or so Recs and that gives u 20 Touchs a week for Barber.
Give Felix 150 Carries w/ 40 recs and u get about 12 touches a game.
So thats my analysis of the situation.
MBIII w/ 300 Carries @ a 4.2 YPC = 1260 yds plus 20 Recs for 140 yds. Double Digit TDs
Jones w/ 150 Carries @ a 4.5 YPC = 675 yds plus 40 Recs for 320.. 3 TDs
I believe thats the Ceiling for Jones unless Barber gets injuried at some pt.
JJ avg 11.75 touches a game last yr / MBIII avg 15.5
Dallas was 21th in the league w/ 419 attempts... I would say that # increases this yr as well... 450 would be the ceiling (that would put them in the top 10 of attempts, so that # maybe high).
MBIII load should increase now that their paying him 47M and hes the starter... I would venture that they limit him too 300 carries which equals 18.75 carries a game. Toss in 20 or so Recs and that gives u 20 Touchs a week for Barber.
Give Felix 150 Carries w/ 40 recs and u get about 12 touches a game.
So thats my analysis of the situation.
MBIII w/ 300 Carries @ a 4.2 YPC = 1260 yds plus 20 Recs for 140 yds. Double Digit TDs
Jones w/ 150 Carries @ a 4.5 YPC = 675 yds plus 40 Recs for 320.. 3 TDs
I believe thats the Ceiling for Jones unless Barber gets injuried at some pt.
switz
Footballguy
Barber averaged 4.8YPC last season, with far less speed than Jones has. I think your YPC for both is far below what it will be.I also can't see Barber getting 300 carries. Most Julius had was 260, I think that's a realistic expectation for Barber. This is still a passing offense.If I were to project right now, off the cuff:Barber 270 carries, 4.5 YPC, 1215 yards, 23 rec, 160 yards, 12 TDsJones 145 carries, 5.1 YPC, 786 yards, 42 rec, 412 yards, 7 TDs
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
I can live w/ ur Barber Projection... me and u seem to be on the same page w/ him.But I can not project any Rookie w/ a 5+ YPC until I see it. The 4.5 I projected was a little generous IMO. And 7 TDs... seriously doubt he gets over 4 as long as MBIII is healthy.
As a Felix owner in a couple of dynasty leagues, Id be ok with this kind of productionprymetyme25
Footballguy
me and you both.switz said:As a Felix owner in a couple of dynasty leagues, Id be ok with this kind of production
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Mine or Switz...
Switz's Projections would put in Rookie #2 for sure
Switz's Projections would put in Rookie #2 for sure
prymetyme25
Footballguy
I dont think he'll get 7 tds unless he just consistantly rips off long ones. Once they get inside the 20's he has about a 10% chance of scoring(just threw out a number) One thing thats not deniable is Barber's presence in the red zone. I like his yardage but your td prediction.
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KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Personally.. I like the projections from the 5 FBG Staffers: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/JoneFe00-1.phpRSH YD Y/R TD REC YD Y/R TD FPT
David Dodds 155 620 4.0 3 17 126 7.4 1 99
Chris Smith 100 549 5.5 4 20 220 11.0 1 107
Bob Henry 145 638 4.4 4 24 211 8.8 1 115
Jason Wood 120 600 5.0 4 15 150 10.0 0 99
Maurile Tremblay 94 393 4.2 3 14 109 7.8 0 68
None of them have Jones touching 900, never mind 1K total yds.
switz
Footballguy
Smith, Wood, and Tremblay are seriously low on rush attempts, when you review the Julius/Barber split.4.0 and 4.2 IMO are very low YPCs considering the situations he will likely run in.
Receptions are low across the board when reviewing receptions by RBs in DAL the last few years.
So frankly, this is probably due to the FBG sponsored Barber hype, or simply lack of insight into the way DAL has been using their RBs. I'd guess the former, not the latter. But looking at their projections:
Barber
Dodds 235 1058 4.5 12 45 315 7.0 2
Smith 270 1290 4.8 12 40 305 7.6 1
Henry 238 1064 4.5 11 45 323 7.2 2
Wood 250 1150 4.6 11 40 305 7.6 2
Tremblay 244 1079 4.4 12 38 277 7.3 1
All 5 have the Cowboys rush atts low
Dodds 390
Smith 370
Henry 383
Wood 370
Tremblay 338
Cowboys
'07 368
'06 402
'05 395
Last year was the lowest since Jones & Barber shared time, and 3 view it as the benchmark for carries, too low IMO. Dodds and Henry are the only ones close on # of carrries, and on Jones' # of carries IMO. But all have Jones' receptions way too low.
Max Power
Footballguy
I love the line of thought around here that Felix was drafted (with the first pick) to be purely a role player. Barber is a very tough runner, but..BUT....lets let him carry a full load for a season before calling him an irreplaceable "stud" RB. Sure MBIII has the TDs to impress, but IMO he ihas yet to prove that he is more than a situational guy. I do think this is the year he gets close to 300, but there will still be 120-160 rushes going to other players, mainly Felix.
MBIII racked up the Receptions because he was still the 3rd down back in many situations. Obviously if MBIII is the 1-2 down guy, he will lose out on some receptions.
However calling Felix the next Westbrook or Bush is a bit much....but, calling him no better than Julius Jones is also just as rediculous. I fully expect Felix to be involved heavy in the passing game and still get 6-12 carries per game.
MBIII racked up the Receptions because he was still the 3rd down back in many situations. Obviously if MBIII is the 1-2 down guy, he will lose out on some receptions.
However calling Felix the next Westbrook or Bush is a bit much....but, calling him no better than Julius Jones is also just as rediculous. I fully expect Felix to be involved heavy in the passing game and still get 6-12 carries per game.
switz
Footballguy
From NFL experience, sure. Barber has three years, Felix has none.However, coming out of college, Barber had a career total of 18 receptions. 13 of those came his final season in college. Average per reception? 9.1Jones, in his last college season alone had 16 receptions for an 11.0 average per reception. For his three years in college he had 39 receptions with a 9.8 average per reception.I'm not sure, based on that, that anyone could say Barber is a better receiver. And since his coach is already comparing Felix Jones to Thurman Thomas, one of the best pass catching RBs in the history of the NFL, I'd be hard pressed to think Barber is a better receiver.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
I agree that Felix is likely to be a devastating weapon when he gets the ball in space as a receiver, but wonder how he'll do in blitz pickup. Until he settles in as a pass blocker I think that MBIII will see most of the 3rd down work. When that happens is anyone's guess, but predicting Jones to catch more balls than Barber in 2008 seems risky to me for that reason. Dynasty wise, I agree that he'll settle in to a 50+ catch role eventually.
switz
Footballguy
If they are planning on splitting him out at times, then I could see him getting catches without blitz pickup being an issue. But I agree in general, he'll have to prove he can pass block to see the majority of the third down work. I still predict 40+ receptions this season.
UnknownCoach
Footballguy
This definately helped Jones's stock on my sheet. He was the rookie I was haveing the hardest time wiht. His listed height to weight ratio was my biggest concern about him. Being at least one inch shorter and 7 pounds heavier puts Jones much closer to what you want for starter material. In fact, it makes him look better than McFadden. I'd actually call Jones 5' 11" and McFadden 6' 2" just because I'd always round up but he's 3 full inches shorter and only 4 pounds lighter. Yes, he's definately closer to the ideal ratio than Johnson. I did state that it was argueable but didnt realize Jones size was that different than what he was being listed as.
switz
Footballguy
Since someone called me out about my Barber projections... I thought I'd bump this little gem...FYI Jones after three games on pace for
96 carries, 8.3 YPC, 789 yards, 16 rec, 48 yards, 11 TDs
Barber is on pace for...
331 carries, 4.6 YPC, 1520 yards, 53 rec, 464 yards, 27 TDs
It's early, and I was way way way off on Barber's attempts... but:
my yardage estimate (786) and Jones prorated yards (789) are really close
my receptions estimate between the two (while I had players backwards) is really close (65 estimated versus 69 prorated)
my YPC guess is almost dead on for Barber (4.5 versus 4.6)
m'eh... we all get some right, we all get some wrong... but it was a fun thing to review
scrumptrulescent
Footballguy
Holy hell, I hope you're right on all counts since I own both. Looks like Barber will be taking me to the promised land this year.
Ridgelake
Footballguy
I've spent a good bit of time trying to think of what player Felix most reminds me of. At first, I thought it might be a young Marshall Faulk. And it still might be down the road. But for now, a young, Denver Broncos' Clinton Portis is the best fit I've seen so far. Similar explosiveness, vision. Similar acceleration.Portis is a pretty big back now, having spent several years in NFL weight programs. He didnt start out that way though. He was a bit wiry when he first entered the league, much like Felix. Felix is reportedly a very hard worker, so I'd be surprised if he doesnt significantly improve his strength/size by next year.
Ridgelake
Footballguy
Regarding the split of touches between Felix and Barber, I suspect that Felix will gradually get a bigger share as the coaches gain trust in him and he learns the pro game. I know the coaches don't run the full playbook with Felix in the game yet because he's still learning the offense. But as Dallas plays more games, particularly against weaker non-divisional opponents where playoff seeding is not likely to be impacted, you'll likely see Dallas playing its rookies more at RB to keep Barber fresh for games that matter more.
Barber will still get the goal line looks. But it would not surprise me at all to see him rest a few more series per game as the season goes on.
Barber will still get the goal line looks. But it would not surprise me at all to see him rest a few more series per game as the season goes on.
switz
Footballguy
Yes, I admitted my reception estimates were off in my above posting. Shoot me for listening to Jason Garrett.
Andy Herron
Footballguy
So far, so good. All he needs is the touches. Obviously, he still has to play behind Barber, but I think it's fair to say that as the season wears on and Felix gets more involved in the offense, especially the passing game, he's going to put up some pretty nice numbers to say the least. The ability is unquestionably there and plain to see already, and he's "faster" than Westbrook. Much faster.You're giving your rookie RB a year to show he's Westbrook?
Andy Herron
Footballguy
Column today from Tim McMahon of DMN:
How much Felix Jones is enough?
That's a question the Cowboys coaching staff continues to ponder.
The point of using a first-round pick on a running back was to get a gamebreaking change-of-pace complement for Marion "The Barbarian" Barber, as well as making sure that Barber would get enough rest to stay fresh.
Jones has exceeded expectations as a gamebreaker. The kid is the first Cowboy to score TDs in his first three games (11-yard run, 98-yard kickoff return, 60-yard run). He's averaging 8.2 yards per carry. Yet he has only 19 touches from the line of scrimmage.
Wade Phillips noted again Monday that it's tough to put a horse like Barber in the stable. And Phillips pointed out that Barber looked awfully powerful during the fourth quarter. But, if Barber gets 28 carries in too many games, you have to be concerned about whether he'll be able to finish the season strong.
Jones played 13 snaps in Green Bay. He was on the field with Barber only twice, but you can count on that personnel package playing a significant part in at least a game or two this season. We also haven't seen much of Jones as a receiver (one catch for 3 yards), but that's coming, too.
Part of Jason Garrett's job is making sure that Barber is fresh enough to provide the Cowboys a power running game in the playoffs. It's also on Garrett to figure out ways to take advantage of the first-round RB's unique, explosive talent. Those two tasks go hand in hand.
FELIX JONES OFFENSIVE PLAYS VS. THE PACKERS
First-and-10, 6:56 1Q: Lined up as the inside receiver in a bunch to the outside of LT Flozell Adams with Barber in the backfield. Ran a wheel route, but Tony Romo dumped the ball off over the middle to Patrick Crayton, who dropped it. Phillips indicated Monday that the play is designed for Jones.
Third-and-5, 6:15 1Q: Lined up to Romo's right in the shotgun and ran a circle route. Was one-on-one with LB Nick Barnett, but Romo threw the ball to TE Jason Witten for a 5-yard game.
First-and-10, 5:26 1Q: Lined up in I formation and ran lead draw for 7 yards.
Second-and-3, 4:58 1Q: Lined up as single back in three-TE set and got ball on stretch play right, cutting back to get 2 yards up the middle.
First-and-10, 6:15 2Q: Lined up as single back in three-TE set and broke run for 60-yard TD around left end on "scissors" play. The linebackers flowed to the offense's right because of Jones' counter-step, but no O-linemen pulled or trapped. TE Jason Witten threw the key block, sealing DE Mike Montgomery, and Jones juked CB Charles Woodson and FS Nick Collins to get to the sideline.
Third-and-5, 12:49 3Q: Lined up to Romo's right in shotgun with Barber on the other side and ran a wheel route. Romo threw incomplete to T.O. across the middle.
First-and-10, 4:30 3Q: Lined up in I formation and got play-action fake before Romo hit Miles Austin on post route for 63-yard gain.
First-and-10, 1:37 3Q: Lined up as single back in three-TE set and ran "scissors" play, which he scored on earlier, to the other side. DE Cullen Jenkins dropped him for a 5-yard loss after TE Martellus Bennett missed his block on the back side.
Second-and-15, 0:53 3Q: Lined up to Romo's right in the shotgun and ran screen. Play went to hell when Jones slipped and fell to the turf, leading Romo to get flagged for intentional grounding when he threw ball to spot where Jones was supposed to be. Blocking appeared to be well set up.
First-and-10, 12:58 4Q: Lined up to Romo's left in shotgun and ran draw. Stopped for 2-yard gain by SS Aaron Rouse.
Second-and-8, 12:16 4Q: Lined up in offset I and ran draw off left tackle for 10 yards.
First-and-10, 11:33 4Q: Lined up in I and got play-action fake before Romo threw incomplete post to Austin.
Second-and-10, 11:27 4Q: Lined up to Romo's left in shotgun and released into flat when no blitzer came. Romo dumped it off while scrambling for a 3-yard gain. Tackle by LB Brandon Chillar prevented big play.
How much Felix Jones is enough?
That's a question the Cowboys coaching staff continues to ponder.
The point of using a first-round pick on a running back was to get a gamebreaking change-of-pace complement for Marion "The Barbarian" Barber, as well as making sure that Barber would get enough rest to stay fresh.
Jones has exceeded expectations as a gamebreaker. The kid is the first Cowboy to score TDs in his first three games (11-yard run, 98-yard kickoff return, 60-yard run). He's averaging 8.2 yards per carry. Yet he has only 19 touches from the line of scrimmage.
Wade Phillips noted again Monday that it's tough to put a horse like Barber in the stable. And Phillips pointed out that Barber looked awfully powerful during the fourth quarter. But, if Barber gets 28 carries in too many games, you have to be concerned about whether he'll be able to finish the season strong.
Jones played 13 snaps in Green Bay. He was on the field with Barber only twice, but you can count on that personnel package playing a significant part in at least a game or two this season. We also haven't seen much of Jones as a receiver (one catch for 3 yards), but that's coming, too.
Part of Jason Garrett's job is making sure that Barber is fresh enough to provide the Cowboys a power running game in the playoffs. It's also on Garrett to figure out ways to take advantage of the first-round RB's unique, explosive talent. Those two tasks go hand in hand.
FELIX JONES OFFENSIVE PLAYS VS. THE PACKERS
First-and-10, 6:56 1Q: Lined up as the inside receiver in a bunch to the outside of LT Flozell Adams with Barber in the backfield. Ran a wheel route, but Tony Romo dumped the ball off over the middle to Patrick Crayton, who dropped it. Phillips indicated Monday that the play is designed for Jones.
Third-and-5, 6:15 1Q: Lined up to Romo's right in the shotgun and ran a circle route. Was one-on-one with LB Nick Barnett, but Romo threw the ball to TE Jason Witten for a 5-yard game.
First-and-10, 5:26 1Q: Lined up in I formation and ran lead draw for 7 yards.
Second-and-3, 4:58 1Q: Lined up as single back in three-TE set and got ball on stretch play right, cutting back to get 2 yards up the middle.
First-and-10, 6:15 2Q: Lined up as single back in three-TE set and broke run for 60-yard TD around left end on "scissors" play. The linebackers flowed to the offense's right because of Jones' counter-step, but no O-linemen pulled or trapped. TE Jason Witten threw the key block, sealing DE Mike Montgomery, and Jones juked CB Charles Woodson and FS Nick Collins to get to the sideline.
Third-and-5, 12:49 3Q: Lined up to Romo's right in shotgun with Barber on the other side and ran a wheel route. Romo threw incomplete to T.O. across the middle.
First-and-10, 4:30 3Q: Lined up in I formation and got play-action fake before Romo hit Miles Austin on post route for 63-yard gain.
First-and-10, 1:37 3Q: Lined up as single back in three-TE set and ran "scissors" play, which he scored on earlier, to the other side. DE Cullen Jenkins dropped him for a 5-yard loss after TE Martellus Bennett missed his block on the back side.
Second-and-15, 0:53 3Q: Lined up to Romo's right in the shotgun and ran screen. Play went to hell when Jones slipped and fell to the turf, leading Romo to get flagged for intentional grounding when he threw ball to spot where Jones was supposed to be. Blocking appeared to be well set up.
First-and-10, 12:58 4Q: Lined up to Romo's left in shotgun and ran draw. Stopped for 2-yard gain by SS Aaron Rouse.
Second-and-8, 12:16 4Q: Lined up in offset I and ran draw off left tackle for 10 yards.
First-and-10, 11:33 4Q: Lined up in I and got play-action fake before Romo threw incomplete post to Austin.
Second-and-10, 11:27 4Q: Lined up to Romo's left in shotgun and released into flat when no blitzer came. Romo dumped it off while scrambling for a 3-yard gain. Tackle by LB Brandon Chillar prevented big play.
