JayMan
Footballguy
There has been many debates, particularly in recent years with [DYNASTY] leagues growing in popularity, on how to evaluate the productivity of players for upcoming years...
When a RB is too old to hold on to?
Should we look at age, touches, experience for projections and breakdowns?
Is the third year really the year when a WR breaks out?
With that in mind, using the database at http://www.pro-football-reference.com/, I have compiled FF data for the last 16 years (including 1990).
The setup:
1. I used FGB scoring (i.e. no PPR);
2. I assumed 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE starters - for a 12 team league;
3. I ranked players by position / by year;
4. I created the "Elite" and "Starter" category - Starter is defined by the multiplication of teams by format (so 12QB/24RB/36WR/12TE)... Elite is defined as the top 25% of the starters (so 3QB/6RB/9WR/3TE);
5. I looked at the "year number" those ranking equate to.
From that information - I was able to create matrices to see the distribution of elite and starters by position by NFL experience.
Let's look at one example in order to best illustrate the data used:
Barber Tiki 1997 1
Barber Tiki 1998 2
Barber Tiki 1999 3
Barber Tiki 2000 4 13
Barber Tiki 2001 5 14
Barber Tiki 2002 6 7
Barber Tiki 2003 7 15
Barber Tiki 2004 8 2
Barber Tiki 2005 9 4
This means that Tiki is considered a Starter for years 4 to 9 (2000 to 2005) and Elite for seasons 8 and 9 (2004 and 2005).
From this, I extracted the Starter and Elite matrices:
Starters:
Year QB RB WR TE
1 2 36 30 9
2 19 50 50 28
3 14 62 74 31
4 19 48 70 21
5 23 46 73 23
6 18 45 66 23
7 21 31 56 17
8 15 26 49 13
9 11 14 35 10
10 11 5 30 5
11 9 2 14 5
12 11 3 11 4
13 9 1 6 2
14 7 1 7 1
15 2 2 2 0
16 1 0 1 0
17 0 0 1 0
18 0 0 1 0
Elite:
Year QB RB WR TE
1 0 7 2 2
2 5 14 7 5
3 5 11 19 7
4 4 11 14 8
5 4 14 19 6
6 7 9 18 3
7 3 6 20 5
8 5 3 6 5
9 2 2 9 2
10 4 2 5 1
11 3 0 3 2
12 3 1 3 1
13 1 0 2 0
14 2 0 1 1
Constraints:
Obviously, there will be replies saying that we should look at age or touches or opportunity to get a better idea as how to predict the production - that is not the point here - this study is looking at NFL experience - and if you don't think it's a good variable to look at - just don't buy into it;
Quick facts:
Jerry Rice is the only Starter ever for years 16 to 18 (2000 to 2002)... Isaac Bruce (1995) and Germane Crowell ! (1999) are the only 2nd year WR to warrant Elite status (remember, last year was Anquan Boldin 3rd - not his 2nd)... this would probably have helped to see that Michael Clayton and Roy Williams wouldn't warrant Elite status in 2005 (no WR comes to mind - not even Reggie Brown to attaign that status either in 2006, in my opinion)...
Conclusions:
---
What can we draw from this?
Looking at QBs - we can clearly see that the distribution is quite even for years 2 to 13 - this means that you could probably steal a 2nd year QB (we all know rookie QBs are worthless) and expect a Starter year (Bledsoe, Bulger, Culpepper and Favre are just examples of guys not worthy in their rookie year but breaking through the next year - Charlie Frye comes to mind for 2006) - this also means that you just can't expect a guy to drop off FF land only because he has played for 11 years in the league;
Looking at RBs - contrary to the QBs situation, they come off with a bang and gets out of FF land much more quickly (we expected that) - this means that you can't rely on a 8th year RB to be Elite and lead your team to FF championship (think Ahman Green, Fred Taylor, Corey Dillon, Warrick Dunn)... and since rookies and 2nd year players are a good sources of Elite players - it wouldn't be surprising to see Steven Jackson, Ronnie Brown or Cadillac Williams steal the show this year;
Looking at WRs - your Elite guys have 3 to 7 years of NFL experience (major dropoff after that)... while the old ones are good to Start for 12/13/14 years (Hines Ward and Donald Driver are best examples of guys getting out of the Elite range while having 5 or 6 years left in the tank to Start);
Looking at TEs - The catching stars are surprinsingly evenly distributed from year 2 to 8 - you can get anyone in that range - after that, stay away;
---
I'm looking for any feedback on this - if you think this study is boggus, I'm all up for constructive critism (no need for the "that the stupidest conclusions I ever saw" reply)... also, if you want more info, I can easily send the data used - or reply to any question (who's the 14th year Elite TE? Shannon Sharpe in 2003)...
When a RB is too old to hold on to?
Should we look at age, touches, experience for projections and breakdowns?
Is the third year really the year when a WR breaks out?
With that in mind, using the database at http://www.pro-football-reference.com/, I have compiled FF data for the last 16 years (including 1990).
The setup:
1. I used FGB scoring (i.e. no PPR);
2. I assumed 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE starters - for a 12 team league;
3. I ranked players by position / by year;
4. I created the "Elite" and "Starter" category - Starter is defined by the multiplication of teams by format (so 12QB/24RB/36WR/12TE)... Elite is defined as the top 25% of the starters (so 3QB/6RB/9WR/3TE);
5. I looked at the "year number" those ranking equate to.
From that information - I was able to create matrices to see the distribution of elite and starters by position by NFL experience.
Let's look at one example in order to best illustrate the data used:
Barber Tiki 1997 1
Barber Tiki 1998 2
Barber Tiki 1999 3
Barber Tiki 2000 4 13
Barber Tiki 2001 5 14
Barber Tiki 2002 6 7
Barber Tiki 2003 7 15
Barber Tiki 2004 8 2
Barber Tiki 2005 9 4
This means that Tiki is considered a Starter for years 4 to 9 (2000 to 2005) and Elite for seasons 8 and 9 (2004 and 2005).
From this, I extracted the Starter and Elite matrices:
Starters:
Year QB RB WR TE
1 2 36 30 9
2 19 50 50 28
3 14 62 74 31
4 19 48 70 21
5 23 46 73 23
6 18 45 66 23
7 21 31 56 17
8 15 26 49 13
9 11 14 35 10
10 11 5 30 5
11 9 2 14 5
12 11 3 11 4
13 9 1 6 2
14 7 1 7 1
15 2 2 2 0
16 1 0 1 0
17 0 0 1 0
18 0 0 1 0
Elite:
Year QB RB WR TE
1 0 7 2 2
2 5 14 7 5
3 5 11 19 7
4 4 11 14 8
5 4 14 19 6
6 7 9 18 3
7 3 6 20 5
8 5 3 6 5
9 2 2 9 2
10 4 2 5 1
11 3 0 3 2
12 3 1 3 1
13 1 0 2 0
14 2 0 1 1
Constraints:
Obviously, there will be replies saying that we should look at age or touches or opportunity to get a better idea as how to predict the production - that is not the point here - this study is looking at NFL experience - and if you don't think it's a good variable to look at - just don't buy into it;
Quick facts:
Jerry Rice is the only Starter ever for years 16 to 18 (2000 to 2002)... Isaac Bruce (1995) and Germane Crowell ! (1999) are the only 2nd year WR to warrant Elite status (remember, last year was Anquan Boldin 3rd - not his 2nd)... this would probably have helped to see that Michael Clayton and Roy Williams wouldn't warrant Elite status in 2005 (no WR comes to mind - not even Reggie Brown to attaign that status either in 2006, in my opinion)...
Conclusions:
---
What can we draw from this?
Looking at QBs - we can clearly see that the distribution is quite even for years 2 to 13 - this means that you could probably steal a 2nd year QB (we all know rookie QBs are worthless) and expect a Starter year (Bledsoe, Bulger, Culpepper and Favre are just examples of guys not worthy in their rookie year but breaking through the next year - Charlie Frye comes to mind for 2006) - this also means that you just can't expect a guy to drop off FF land only because he has played for 11 years in the league;
Looking at RBs - contrary to the QBs situation, they come off with a bang and gets out of FF land much more quickly (we expected that) - this means that you can't rely on a 8th year RB to be Elite and lead your team to FF championship (think Ahman Green, Fred Taylor, Corey Dillon, Warrick Dunn)... and since rookies and 2nd year players are a good sources of Elite players - it wouldn't be surprising to see Steven Jackson, Ronnie Brown or Cadillac Williams steal the show this year;
Looking at WRs - your Elite guys have 3 to 7 years of NFL experience (major dropoff after that)... while the old ones are good to Start for 12/13/14 years (Hines Ward and Donald Driver are best examples of guys getting out of the Elite range while having 5 or 6 years left in the tank to Start);
Looking at TEs - The catching stars are surprinsingly evenly distributed from year 2 to 8 - you can get anyone in that range - after that, stay away;
---
I'm looking for any feedback on this - if you think this study is boggus, I'm all up for constructive critism (no need for the "that the stupidest conclusions I ever saw" reply)... also, if you want more info, I can easily send the data used - or reply to any question (who's the 14th year Elite TE? Shannon Sharpe in 2003)...
