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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (3 Viewers)

Eli, you mother ####er. Killing the last 2 legs of 2 teasers i had in there that would have helped to bounce me back from the Bucs and Pats today :hot: . Please Eli help me to come back here in 5 minutes to apologize because you can pull a garbage Time out to get with-in 9.5 points

 
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:headbang: :headbang: hitting the one teaser will make up for all of the Bucs mess, and the other one needs the Skins and Texans to both win or lose by less then 3

 
got_nugs said:
modogg said:
got_nugs said:
modogg said:
And wow, #### Dallas too. I grabbed ov60.5 in live betting for a good chunk earlier in the 4th Q :bag:
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:scared:
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Yeah, this 1st week of NFL always gets crazy. C'mon Dallas, just let them score this TD so you guys can just finish the game by taking a knee after you get the on-sides. Break me off some you bums
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WOO MO! That pick 6 smoked my u57.5 so i'll root for you.
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Thanks :thumbup: I think it helped here

 
I have a scenario for you guys and would like to know what you would do...

3 Team Parlay going into Monday Night is 2/2 so far with Texans to go (Cowboys and Cards covered). Lets say payout is $2013 on $329 bet. You are currently up $900 if you lose the parlay. You have Texans at -3.5

Would you:

A. Ride it out looking for the Texans to bring it home for you and be happy already up $900 if you lose... (Parlay winner would put you up $3242 on the day)

B. Try and get the Chargers at +4.5 or higher putting $1227.00 on them to win the same amount no matter what the outcome of the game is because youd have money on both sides plus you'd have the chance at winning both if it hit Texans winning by 4. (By betting the 1227 it would automatically reduce your guaranteed winnings to about $2000 with higher potential winnings even though the chances of hitting the 4 won't be very good)

C. Other (Please explain)

I know what I'm going to do, but I want to see if I'm missing something...

 
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I'm taking Texans ML. If this team is anywhere close to the team they were last year, it should be easy money. I don't have much faith in Philip Rivers, he looked like garbage in preseason.

It's not going to be pretty but I think betting the Texans here is a nice conservative bet. My line is -220 but I'm willing to bet some money based on what I feel is a high percentage play.

 
Heep said:
I have a scenario for you guys and would like to know what you would do...

3 Team Parlay going into Monday Night is 2/2 so far with Texans to go (Cowboys and Cards covered). Lets say payout is $2013 on $329 bet. You are currently up $900 if you lose the parlay. You have Texans at -3.5

Would you:

A. Ride it out looking for the Texans to bring it home for you and be happy already up $900 if you lose... (Parlay winner would put you up $3242 on the day)

B. Try and get the Chargers at +4.5 or higher putting $1227.00 on them to win the same amount no matter what the outcome of the game is because youd have money on both sides plus you'd have the chance at winning both if it hit Texans winning by 4. (By betting the 1227 it would automatically reduce your guaranteed winnings to about $2000 with higher potential winnings even though the chances of hitting the 4 won't be very good)

C. Other (Please explain)

I know what I'm going to do, but I want to see if I'm missing something...
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i'm getting sleepy, but quick answer is let it ride. If you have access to live betting, i may try and hedge guessing SD will be getting some generous leans during that. but overall, you're on the right side. and hell of a nice job clearing that today, keep your picks coming :)

 
Heep said:
I have a scenario for you guys and would like to know what you would do...

3 Team Parlay going into Monday Night is 2/2 so far with Texans to go (Cowboys and Cards covered). Lets say payout is $2013 on $329 bet. You are currently up $900 if you lose the parlay. You have Texans at -3.5

Would you:

A. Ride it out looking for the Texans to bring it home for you and be happy already up $900 if you lose... (Parlay winner would put you up $3242 on the day)

B. Try and get the Chargers at +4.5 or higher putting $1227.00 on them to win the same amount no matter what the outcome of the game is because youd have money on both sides plus you'd have the chance at winning both if it hit Texans winning by 4. (By betting the 1227 it would automatically reduce your guaranteed winnings to about $2000 with higher potential winnings even though the chances of hitting the 4 won't be very good)

C. Other (Please explain)

I know what I'm going to do, but I want to see if I'm missing something...
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In THIS scenario I let it ride because I'm a pretty strong believer in the Texans tonight. I have a couple of units on them. However, typically in this scenario if I have doubts I may hedge enough on the Chargers to win back my initial investment of $329 in the off chance they lose.

 
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Eminence said:
I'm taking Texans ML. If this team is anywhere close to the team they were last year, it should be easy money. I don't have much faith in Philip Rivers, he looked like garbage in preseason.

It's not going to be pretty but I think betting the Texans here is a nice conservative bet. My line is -220 but I'm willing to bet some money based on what I feel is a high percentage play.
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There he is!!! :excited:

Laying serious road chalk.

 
ChainsawU said:
Feels like a fade the public night.
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If week 1 reminded me of anything its to always fade the public. Everyone I know was on the Patriots and Tampa yesterday.... two easiest plays of the week and all of that. Hell even Oakland looked OK vs Indy.

I'd put it all on Houston blowing out San Diego.... but I'm thinking Chargers.

 
Washington opened at -4.5 and in spite of 62% of the betting public on WASH, the line has moved down to -3.5 (and -3 at the Hilton).

I'm thinking Washington is the play.

72% of the public are on the Texans and the Over.

I smell a SD/under parlay

hth

 
ChainsawU said:
Feels like a fade the public night.
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RB has the Texans ML -200, and -3 is currently at -150. I am wary of playing Houston at anything over -3, due to Kubiak's conservative approach. I can see the Texans getting a 10 point lead and Kubiak going into an offensive coma, with SD getting a late back door cover.

 
Thanks to SNF Over I have open parlays and teasers to the Skins/Eagles Over and Houston -3.5/+6.5

I know you sharps like to fade the public but I think you might be overthinking this one and Houston rolls the Chargers

 
SDQL Results Texans versus Chargers link

team = Texans and o:team = ChargersSU: 0-4-0 (-14.75, 0.0%)ATS: 0-4-0 (-9.62, 0.0%)O/U: 2-2-0 (-0.50, 50.0%)This will be their 5th meeting. These two teams faced off in '02, '04, '07, and '10 with the Chargers winning every game SU and ATS.

 
The one thing that concerns me about Washington is that RGIII has not even taken any preseason snaps. Come the 2nd half when he has taken a few hits, i think he is going to wear down. I know that the same can be said of Vick, but at least Vick has taken "live" action snaps. Add to it that no matter what RGIII says, you know somewhere in the back of his mind he is wondering how he will stand up to the first hit on that knee/ first hard shot he takes standing in to deliver the ball etc. I am not sure what to make of this game.. unless i play the "wait for the 2 NFC east teams to do nothing in the first 20 minutes and then take the over" strategy........

I really like Houston tonight, but so everyone and we all know how that turned out for TB and NE. At least I have until late night to figure it out.

GLTA
AB

 
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I put in a withdrawal at sportsb00k.... it will be interesting to see how long it takes.

And speaking of SB.... no NCAA lines up yet.... kind of odd as they usually have them up Sat night.

 
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Off-line (via a friend) got the Skins -3 EV tonight for 4U. I think they hype about the new Eagles offense is nothing but hype. They will move quickly and run alot of plays, but that doesn't preclude Vick from making some boneheaded plays at key moments. Birds' defense STINKS. In a shootout scenario, I'll take a healthy RGIII @ home with something to prove after the injury giving the 3.

:football:

PS - Not playing the total, but if I was, I'd go O51.5 as per the above.

 
ChainsawU said:
SDQL Results Texans versus Chargers link

team = Texans and o:team = ChargersSU: 0-4-0 (-14.75, 0.0%)ATS: 0-4-0 (-9.62, 0.0%)O/U: 2-2-0 (-0.50, 50.0%)This will be their 5th meeting. These two teams faced off in '02, '04, '07, and '10 with the Chargers winning every game SU and ATS.
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Can you run a simulation on those games to see how having JJ Watt would have impacted them?

 
Just looking at next week, I pretty much saw the Falcons and Rams full games from start to finish. Got lucky StL was able to score that many points to cash the team total. But there is no way Bradford will be able to compete without a lead back to run the ball and nobody other than Cook to throw to. Richardson barely made it through the game. I'm pretty sure I could scheme a defense to stop the Rams on Sunday. And ATL off a loss in their home opener will be fire. ATL all day long.

 
Dan Lambskin said:
ChainsawU said:
SDQL Results Texans versus Chargers link

team = Texans and o:team = ChargersSU: 0-4-0 (-14.75, 0.0%)ATS: 0-4-0 (-9.62, 0.0%)O/U: 2-2-0 (-0.50, 50.0%)This will be their 5th meeting. These two teams faced off in '02, '04, '07, and '10 with the Chargers winning every game SU and ATS.
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Can you run a simulation on those games to see how having JJ Watt would have impacted them?
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I haven't made a bet yet, and you may be right about the Texans broseph. That data is from a long time ago. Your bet looks good. :thumbup:

 
Going to endorse Rafa Nadal at -160 today

ETA: he seems way more locked in than Djoker right now.

 
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ChainsawU said:
Just looking at next week, I pretty much saw the Falcons and Rams full games from start to finish. Got lucky StL was able to score that many points to cash the team total. But there is no way Bradford will be able to compete without a lead back to run the ball and nobody other than Cook to throw to. Richardson barely made it through the game. I'm pretty sure I could scheme a defense to stop the Rams on Sunday. And ATL off a loss in their home opener will be fire. ATL all day long.
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I like the way you think. Rams defense can give some teams problems though, team total under on Rams (20?) might be another way to look at it.

 
Bookmaker is taking 100k on the games tonight, that's pretty awesome

ETA: I'll gladly take the +6 SD line that sportsbook is offering

 
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The Ref said:
lumpy19 said:
ETA: I'll gladly take the +6 SD line that sportsbook is offering
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I thought the same thing, but of course the second I hit buy it moved to 5.5.

31/50

SD +11.5

under 51

Phil +10
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I bet it again buying up from +6 to +7 -140, they charge too much for the 7 but it's still way off from what it should be

They're still hanging +3 for the first half :thumbup:

Big charger fan tonight

 
I'm not sure about the over in the Iggles/Skins game either, local people saying Skins will try to slow it down running a Houston-like offense tonight with Morris and Helu. I think the Eagles are a real wildcard this year in betting, I think some weird results are coming from their games (like them blowing people out one week and getting blown out the following week. 45-38 games followed by 17-13 games, etc).

 
Doctor Detroit said:
I'm not sure about the over in the Iggles/Skins game either, local people saying Skins will try to slow it down running a Houston-like offense tonight with Morris and Helu. I think the Eagles are a real wildcard this year in betting, I think some weird results are coming from their games (like them blowing people out one week and getting blown out the following week. 45-38 games followed by 17-13 games, etc).
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I certainly don't think it's a slam dunk but even if Skins slow it down Eagles will play up tempo and either score or turn it back over quickly and I don't think Eagles D is going to stop them from scoring

 
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