FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (4 Viewers)

[Good Posting Judge]

Need to do a little more homework just to verify, but I currently have the Yankees chance of winning more than 86 games at 0.00000000000000000002%.

 

[swirvenirvin]

Everyone > hi.

BENDER!!!! Made some curry chicken yesterday and instead of rice I made some cauliflower rice based on one of your posts in a fat person thread. It was awesome!

Self-imposed gambling hiatus is almost done. Heading to Vegas on the 19th for the first two rounds again. I've already started my mental checkout from work.

im confused, but will also be there getting in on the 19th.

 

[swirvenirvin]

Need to do a little more homework just to verify, but I currently have the Yankees chance of winning more than 86 games at 0.00000000000000000002%.

they have a new bunch of old guys this yr

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Need to do a little more homework just to verify, but I currently have the Yankees chance of winning more than 86 games at 0.00000000000000000002%.

they have a new bunch of old guys this yr

They also a) were outscored last year, despite winning 85 games and b) lost a 6-7 WAR guy without finding a reasonable replacement.

Like I said, further research might be needed. Hughes to Tanaka is obviously a big upgrade. Is Beltran really going to play RF over Soriano? Is that real?

 

[swirvenirvin]

sportsbook has their player props up for baseball

 

[lumpy19]

Loyola +5.5

 

[TheGooRoo]

sportsbook has their player props up for baseball

They've been up over a week, get busy bud! Pedroia o 163.5 hits is a great bet.

 

[swirvenirvin]

sportsbook has their player props up for baseball

They've been up over a week, get busy bud! Pedroia o 163.5 hits is a great bet.

every yr but 2010 when he only played 70 some games..

Ooo I just remembered they unblocked all the sports sites at work. I was going to spend my own time trying some of these out

 

[ChainsawU]

i was tryin2 run w the king$ becauz I had class till late but my school txxt me - i was like LOL who di$ b? they was like its cold outside u dont have class! LOL! neck chokin & booty clappin all daay! #thiscouldbeusbutyouplayin

 

[swirvenirvin]

sportsbook has their player props up for baseball

They've been up over a week, get busy bud! Pedroia o 163.5 hits is a great bet.

every yr but 2010 when he only played 70 some games..

Ooo I just remembered they unblocked all the sports sites at work. I was going to spend my own time trying some of these out

they really account for injuries and try to make you take the overs on these.

 

[ChainsawU]

K-St average 65.1 ±8.6 points per game as the road dog in Big12 play since 2011. Their team total is set at 65, so if you can happen to get over 56.5 live, it might be fun to root for.

 

[The Ref]

Who has two thumbs and was just cut from Bovada?

 

[Frostillicus]

Another key learning: always check the injury report. I usually only look up injuries if a line looks way off, but McAdoo at o/u 7 rebs looked like about where Bovada would set the line against Notre Dame. Turned out Garrick Sherman was out, and there's no way I play that line if I had known that. I even have a website bookmarked that compiles all the injuries for you. Lazy.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Who has two thumbs and was just cut from Bovada?

How bad?

 

[The Ref]

Who has two thumbs and was just cut from Bovada?

How bad?

$25 for everything except NBA sides and totals. Thats $100 and something I have never bet.

 

[The Ref]

My "hockey prop pal" just said I won the Online Sportsbook Tripple Crown. Bovada was the third book I was #### off from. I think I'm using that as my Fantasy Baseball team name this year.

 

[swirvenirvin]

last couple days haven't gone that great, but

CBJ O28.5 SOG looks good at SB (Leafs give up the most shots in the league).

I also like these but the lines are already set pretty well on them and money seems to be coming in quickly so they might not last for long.

BUF U27.5

DAL O32.5

CGY U26.5

MTL U26.5

odd flames and habs moved to 26 but got juiced to -140

not sure why I posted this.. wasnt odd

 

[Raider Nation]

What's the better play?

L.A. Kings -180

Canadiens/Kings u5

 

[swirvenirvin]

Used past stats, rotoworld and site projections here to try to figure these out. Did ok last yr on the handful I made plus hit that Scherzer CY. But here goes still have 20 some pitchers to look at. FYFYIFYIYFIYFIYF The units are consistent, but they are not the same unit size I play NFL props

1.5

Pedroria over 163.5 hits -115 Loser Injured

1.25

Chris Davis over 36 HR's -115 Loser Injured

Paul Goldschmidt over 29.5 HR's -120 Loser Injured

Hanley Ramirez over 21.5 HR's -115 Loser Injured

1

Adam Jones over 164.5 hits -115 Winner

Bryce Harper under 157.5 hits -115 Winner Injured

Buster Posey under 162.5 hits -115 Loser

Ian Kinsler over 147.5 hits -1115 Winner

Edwin Encarnacion over 30.5 HR's -115 Winner even though he was injured

David Ortiz over 23.5 HR's -115 Winner

Prince Fielder under 31.5 HR's +120 Winner Injured

Matt Moore under 13.5 wins -105 Winner Injured

Julio Teheran over 11.5 wins -125 Winner

 

[Raider Nation]

That # on Pedroia seems low. Injury risk?

 

[swirvenirvin]

That # on Pedroia seems low. Injury risk?

They are all low. You really don't see a single number that is higher than what the player did last year. Hell he had a torn ligamanet in his hand last year and played through it

 

[got_nugs]

Denver/Minnesota scoring is NUTS!

guess who's on the under.

 

[Raider Nation]

What's the better play?

L.A. Kings -180

Canadiens/Kings u5

How 'bout BOTH of 'em, mother f--kers!

I the Kings defense.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

last couple days haven't gone that great, but

CBJ O28.5 SOG looks good at SB (Leafs give up the most shots in the league).

I also like these but the lines are already set pretty well on them and money seems to be coming in quickly so they might not last for long.

BUF U27.5

DAL O32.5

CGY U26.5

MTL U26.5

odd flames and habs moved to 26 but got juiced to -140

not sure why I posted this.. wasnt odd

5-0 and none were really that close. Hope some got in.

 

[Frostillicus]

Aaron is awesome. Alliteration.

 

[got_nugs]

What's the better play?

L.A. Kings -180

Canadiens/Kings u5

How 'bout BOTH of 'em, mother f--kers!

I the Kings defense.

Grassyass for the. U5 bud. Needed it. Also to the good dr for chalk lay '14

 

[ChainsawU]

Pelicans since ASB:

SU: 0-8 (-11.75, 0.0%)

ATS: 2-6-0 (-6.50, 25.0%) avg line: 5.2

The Pelicans are also 0-10 SU and 2-6-2 ATS L10 (avg line 7.3) in their second game of B2B. And then holy crap the Lakers beat Portland last night. It is actually B2B for both teams, and the last game of a five-game road trip for New Orleans. But check it out, the Pelicans have been in this situation before - back on Dec 23. They had lost the first four games of a five-game road trip, went into Sacramento, and won 113-100 against a pick 'em spread and a total of 209.5. They also ended a previous eight-game losing streak in Memphis on Jan 20.

The Lakers are 4-9 SU in their second game of B2B, and this will actually be the first time they have been favored to win their second game of a B2B this year (average line 8.1). I think after last night this -1.5 spread, aka "less than a bucket," will get a lot of action on the Lakers side, but the Pelicans will end up winning. Not to mention the Lakers have the Clippers next, too. It might be arbitrary, but the Lakers are 4-4 SU and 0-7-1 ATS (avg line -4.1) in the games before they played the Clippers w/ Chris Paul.

It is going to be nuts playing the Pelicans since they lose a lot, but I think I will play them action junkie style tomorrow night, especially if most of the $ comes in on L.A.

 

[swirvenirvin]

So this extra point thing in the NFL, I wonder how it is going to affect lines and 7 and 3 and buying on or off those numbers.

 

[Tiger Fan]

last couple days haven't gone that great, but

CBJ O28.5 SOG looks good at SB (Leafs give up the most shots in the league).

I also like these but the lines are already set pretty well on them and money seems to be coming in quickly so they might not last for long.

BUF U27.5

DAL O32.5

CGY U26.5

MTL U26.5

odd flames and habs moved to 26 but got juiced to -140

not sure why I posted this.. wasnt odd

5-0 and none were really that close. Hope some got in.

Was something nice to wake up to. Thx GB

 

[Good Posting Judge]

So this extra point thing in the NFL, I wonder how it is going to affect lines and 7 and 3 and buying on or off those numbers.

Success rate on 40-49 FG's is around 83%. So maybe one missed XP per game, but with those odds, it's going to start making more mathematical sense to go for 2. Especially for teams with some offensive firepower.

7 is going to be less of a key number. 3 as well. Everything would get a lot mushier. And if it doesn't kill Wong Teasers entirely, it'd be enough to put them on serious life support.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Ottawa -110

 

[swirvenirvin]

So this extra point thing in the NFL, I wonder how it is going to affect lines and 7 and 3 and buying on or off those numbers.

Success rate on 40-49 FG's is around 83%. So maybe one missed XP per game, but with those odds, it's going to start making more mathematical sense to go for 2. Especially for teams with some offensive firepower.

7 is going to be less of a key number. 3 as well. Everything would get a lot mushier. And if it doesn't kill Wong Teasers entirely, it'd be enough to put them on serious life support.

wonder what rate of 40-45 yards are. maybe a few points higher, but then teams need to look at 2 pt conver rate. If that is around 40% then it seems like it is about a split.

Then plus with any crappy conditions ever you think the 2 pt conversion would be attempted more also.

Will be interesting to watch and learn

 

[Plorfu]

It will make Super Bowl squares a lot different. Gone will be the days of pulling a 2 and a 5 and wadding the sheet into a paper ball.

 

[Plorfu]

Everyone > hi.

BENDER!!!! Made some curry chicken yesterday and instead of rice I made some cauliflower rice based on one of your posts in a fat person thread. It was awesome!

Self-imposed gambling hiatus is almost done. Heading to Vegas on the 19th for the first two rounds again. I've already started my mental checkout from work.

im confused, but will also be there getting in on the 19th.

Confused about what?

You staying there for the whole weekend? And Mr. Lambskin - I"ll post the recipe here when I get home tonight.

 

[optionmaven]

Taking a chance on the Johnson Boys in golf this week. DJ 11/1 at rb and 12/1 at sb. Zak 20/1 at rb and 26/1 at sb.

 

[LOCO]

i know it is a crazy idea, but geez give me the sixers +20.5 points??

cmon sixers have some pride!!

 

[swirvenirvin]

Everyone > hi.

BENDER!!!! Made some curry chicken yesterday and instead of rice I made some cauliflower rice based on one of your posts in a fat person thread. It was awesome!

Self-imposed gambling hiatus is almost done. Heading to Vegas on the 19th for the first two rounds again. I've already started my mental checkout from work.

im confused, but will also be there getting in on the 19th.

Confused about what?

You staying there for the whole weekend? And Mr. Lambskin - I"ll post the recipe here when I get home tonight.

I didnt read it correctly thought you were saying you were bender...

leaving detroit around 4 wednesday and then leaving saturday night. Staying at Luxor. How about you?

 

[Doctor Detroit]

i know it is a crazy idea, but geez give me the sixers +20.5 points??

cmon sixers have some pride!!

The ten win Bucks beat them so badly, all the illegitimate kids of the 76ers still not born, felt it.

 

[ChainsawU]

They should just see how many fingers the guy who scored the touchdown can fit into the other team's shortest cheerleader - give him one point per finger.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

They should just see how many fingers the guy who scored the touchdown can fit into the other team's shortest cheerleader - give him one point per finger.

I'd go for 10 every time

 

[Frostillicus]

LeVert (mich) Over 12.5p -120
Abrams (ill) Under 10.5p -130
Jefferson (bay) Over 12.5p -120
Randle (uk) Over 10.5r -120

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

My favorite play of the day in SOG is:
DET U28.5 (have them projected at 25.5)
Also like these quite a bit:BOS O31.5 (proj at 33.5)CAR U29.5 (proj at 27.5)
COL U28.5 (proj at 26.5)TBL U29.5 (proj at 27.5)

 

[LOCO]

My favorite play of the day in SOG is:
DET U28.5 (have them projected at 25.5)
Also like these quite a bit:BOS O31.5 (proj at 33.5)CAR U29.5 (proj at 27.5)COL U28.5 (proj at 26.5)

TBL U29.5 (proj at 27.5)

IN IN IN.

thanks for posting these

 

[ChainsawU]

Average scoring by quarter in the four games lined +20 or more since 1995:

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final23.2 25.2 27.2 24.2 100.022.8 20.5 17.5 17.8 78.5Average scoring by quarter L6 Sixers road games:

Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final31.7	25.8	29.0	24.2	110.720.5	22.0	20.8	26.2	89.5

 

[ChainsawU]

76ers 1Q u24½ 110/100

76ers 1H u49½ 110/100

I can't call it with those numbers, and it's a ####ty ### game to bet on, but 5D is offering the ½ point that BetUs isn't offering on these, so #### it fade the Sixers.

 

[LOCO]

Chalk Tuesday.

Eastern Michigan

Cuse

Florida

Maryland

UK

Valpo

FGC

Upstate

Mercer

any one else?

 

[Tiger Fan]

My favorite play of the day in SOG is:
DET U28.5 (have them projected at 25.5)
Also like these quite a bit:BOS O31.5 (proj at 33.5)CAR U29.5 (proj at 27.5)COL U28.5 (proj at 26.5)

TBL U29.5 (proj at 27.5)

IN IN IN.

thanks for posting these

In for a few. Every one of these has moved in Rude's direction and juice is high

 

[swirvenirvin]

Kind of like Michigan -2.5 Really dont think illini is that good.

 

[Plorfu]

Everyone > hi.

BENDER!!!! Made some curry chicken yesterday and instead of rice I made some cauliflower rice based on one of your posts in a fat person thread. It was awesome!

Self-imposed gambling hiatus is almost done. Heading to Vegas on the 19th for the first two rounds again. I've already started my mental checkout from work.

im confused, but will also be there getting in on the 19th.

Confused about what?You staying there for the whole weekend? And Mr. Lambskin - I"ll post the recipe here when I get home tonight.

I didnt read it correctly thought you were saying you were bender...

leaving detroit around 4 wednesday and then leaving saturday night. Staying at Luxor. How about you?

Maybe Excalibur? I'm not real sure. I go with a group every year and one guy usually handles all that, but we often end up at MGM for the games. We usually scope all the various setups Wednesday night and pick one. I'm there until Monday morning assuming I survive. I'll be the guy wearing a Pitt jersey with a bunch of obnoxious Zona fans and one Michigan State guy.

 

[Frostillicus]

Kind of like Michigan -2.5 Really dont think illini is that good.

I'm on Michigan -3