FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (2 Viewers)

[Good Posting Judge]

The problem with fading Hamilton is that a) he's still going to put up insane steal numbers even if he can't hit (see his 2013 AAA stats), and b) Cincy doesn't really have anyone to step in for him and take his starting job away.

With his speed, he has the potential to be an awesome CF. That alone might keep him in the lineup.

 

[nittanylion]

Ohio Valley: SE Miss. St. ML - -215, Tenn. Tech ML - -315

Northeast: St. Francis NY +3.5 @ Mt. St. Mary's - pains me to pick against the Mount right up the road, but I'm finally liking a play where I'm taking points!

Non-Tournament: St. Joe's +4 @ GW

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I like these 4 SOG plays the best today:

NYR O33.5 (-120)

CGY O27.5 (-120)

OTT U31.5 (-120)

PHI O30.5 (-120)

like this one a little:

MTL U28.5 (-120)

it's a small card, but Rangers and Flames probably the stronger of the four.

not as crazy about anything after the lines have moved but I might still play these for a little:

NYR O34.5 (-135)

CGY O28.5 (-140)

PHI O31.5 (-135)

OTT U30.5 (-135)

MTL U28.0 (-130)

 

[LOCO]

Wake + 12.5. Unc on deck. Think duke could be flat.

 

[TheGooRoo]

The problem with fading Hamilton is that a) he's still going to put up insane steal numbers even if he can't hit (see his 2013 AAA stats), and b) Cincy doesn't really have anyone to step in for him and take his starting job away.

With his speed, he has the potential to be an awesome CF. That alone might keep him in the lineup.

I'm struggling with this one. Like most, I fully expect Hamilton to struggle with the bat. I expect him to be sent down to AAA for seasoning, possibly as early as April/May. That being said, he's a guy that I think could easily steal 60 bases in 100-110 games. The fact that he stole 13 bases in 13 games (19 plate appearances, 7 base hits) is nuts, I can't even comprehend that. Over or pass IMO.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

The problem with fading Hamilton is that a) he's still going to put up insane steal numbers even if he can't hit (see his 2013 AAA stats), and b) Cincy doesn't really have anyone to step in for him and take his starting job away.

With his speed, he has the potential to be an awesome CF. That alone might keep him in the lineup.

I'm struggling with this one. Like most, I fully expect Hamilton to struggle with the bat. I expect him to be sent down to AAA for seasoning, possibly as early as April/May. That being said, he's a guy that I think could easily steal 60 bases in 100-110 games. The fact that he stole 13 bases in 13 games (19 plate appearances, 7 base hits) is nuts, I can't even comprehend that. Over or pass IMO.

If you tally up his his singles and walks, and then compare it against the number of steal attempts he has, at any level, it's truly amazing. Also take into account that he has people in front of him on the basepaths sometimes, presumably.

He could approach Rickey levels of steals per steal opps. Nowhere near the caliber of hitter, at least not for awhile, but he's insane on the basepaths.

Speaking of which, how much are we bidding on him in auctions?

 

[TheGooRoo]

Mike Conley should have a nice game tonight.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

The problem with fading Hamilton is that a) he's still going to put up insane steal numbers even if he can't hit (see his 2013 AAA stats), and b) Cincy doesn't really have anyone to step in for him and take his starting job away.

With his speed, he has the potential to be an awesome CF. That alone might keep him in the lineup.

I'm struggling with this one. Like most, I fully expect Hamilton to struggle with the bat. I expect him to be sent down to AAA for seasoning, possibly as early as April/May. That being said, he's a guy that I think could easily steal 60 bases in 100-110 games. The fact that he stole 13 bases in 13 games (19 plate appearances, 7 base hits) is nuts, I can't even comprehend that. Over or pass IMO.

If you tally up his his singles and walks, and then compare it against the number of steal attempts he has, at any level, it's truly amazing. Also take into account that he has people in front of him on the basepaths sometimes, presumably.

He could approach Rickey levels of steals per steal opps. Nowhere near the caliber of hitter, at least not for awhile, but he's insane on the basepaths.

Speaking of which, how much are we bidding on him in auctions?

I'm not a huge advanced stat nerd, but is there a Base Stealing Opportunity type of stat that's tracked anywhere?

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Also strongly considering a max bet on the u210.5 hits...is there someone I'm missing that I should be worried about? Aside from Ichiro Prime it doesn't seem like many players break that mark too often

 

[TheGooRoo]

Also strongly considering a max bet on the u210.5 hits...is there someone I'm missing that I should be worried about? Aside from Ichiro Prime it doesn't seem like many players break that mark too often

I agree.

 

[got_nugs]

Damn, St. Louis is out of Tampa. Looks like our boy Stamkos is coming back. Again, pucksdouche here....but will St Louis being gone impact Stamkos and his opportunity to catch Malkin? Is it currently really 14-18?

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Damn, St. Louis is out of Tampa. Looks like our boy Stamkos is coming back. Again, pucksdouche here....but will St Louis being gone impact Stamkos and his opportunity to catch Malkin? Is it currently really 14-18?

Doesn't help but Malkin can easily be caught if Stamkos stays healthy.

 

[comfortably numb]

1H action

.5u each

Neb/Ind u61.5

Lou/SMU o62.5

Rut/Uconn o64.5

nano second away from going 3-0 on that disallowed last second tip in by SMU

3-1 for the day with 1H action

USA soccer blew my parlay

Hopefully hockey keeps me in the black for the day.

 

[TheGooRoo]

So how exactly does one go about finding a local who takes SB props? An ad in the Yellow Pages? I've had no luck. I'd settle for a guy anywhere in New England, NY or NJ. Shoot me a PM if you can help a fella out.

Good luck. Even if you do find one he's not exactly going to be excited when you demolish him on props. You're better off getting a new sportsbook.ag account under a friend/relatives name, rinse, repeat

yeah locals dont offer anywhere close to the amount of props that the online books, and if they do they are very careful with them

Actually that's not what I'm saying. I've found locals that offer the props but they are considerably less tolerant than an online sportsbook. In addition I've NEVER been stiffed by an online book, even ones that have cut me off. I've been stiffed by several "locals".

I have a pretty unique situation. I have a small network of gentlemen from the New York area that feed me more local accounts than I can handle. I have multiple SB, 5D, and Bovada local sites. These gentlemen have been happy to give me over 55k since January 1, and have not cut any of my accounts, they've actually added. The majority of limits are 500, one book is 1k. Although if I start losing or decide to retire I may disappear.

 

[comfortably numb]

1H

UNLV/SDST o60.5

1u

 

[John Bender]

Loco

Much respect lately. Your best plays have been winning me cash.

If you aren't tailing LOCO, you're doing it wrong.

 

[Raider Nation]

So how exactly does one go about finding a local who takes SB props? An ad in the Yellow Pages? I've had no luck. I'd settle for a guy anywhere in New England, NY or NJ. Shoot me a PM if you can help a fella out.

Good luck. Even if you do find one he's not exactly going to be excited when you demolish him on props. You're better off getting a new sportsbook.ag account under a friend/relatives name, rinse, repeat

yeah locals dont offer anywhere close to the amount of props that the online books, and if they do they are very careful with them

Actually that's not what I'm saying. I've found locals that offer the props but they are considerably less tolerant than an online sportsbook. In addition I've NEVER been stiffed by an online book, even ones that have cut me off. I've been stiffed by several "locals".

I have a pretty unique situation. I have a small network of gentlemen from the New York area that feed me more local accounts than I can handle. I have multiple SB, 5D, and Bovada local sites. These gentlemen have been happy to give me over 55k since January 1, and have not cut any of my accounts, they've actually added. The majority of limits are 500, one book is 1k. Although if I start losing or decide to retire I may disappear.

Stop hoarding!

 

[modogg]

So how exactly does one go about finding a local who takes SB props? An ad in the Yellow Pages? I've had no luck. I'd settle for a guy anywhere in New England, NY or NJ. Shoot me a PM if you can help a fella out.

Good luck. Even if you do find one he's not exactly going to be excited when you demolish him on props. You're better off getting a new sportsbook.ag account under a friend/relatives name, rinse, repeat

yeah locals dont offer anywhere close to the amount of props that the online books, and if they do they are very careful with them

Actually that's not what I'm saying. I've found locals that offer the props but they are considerably less tolerant than an online sportsbook. In addition I've NEVER been stiffed by an online book, even ones that have cut me off. I've been stiffed by several "locals".

I have a pretty unique situation. I have a small network of gentlemen from the New York area that feed me more local accounts than I can handle. I have multiple SB, 5D, and Bovada local sites. These gentlemen have been happy to give me over 55k since January 1, and have not cut any of my accounts, they've actually added. The majority of limits are 500, one book is 1k. Although if I start losing or decide to retire I may disappear.

Stop hoarding!

GR needs to write a book

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Russ Smith

 

[lumpy19]

The problem with fading Hamilton is that a) he's still going to put up insane steal numbers even if he can't hit (see his 2013 AAA stats), and b) Cincy doesn't really have anyone to step in for him and take his starting job away.

With his speed, he has the potential to be an awesome CF. That alone might keep him in the lineup.

I'm struggling with this one. Like most, I fully expect Hamilton to struggle with the bat. I expect him to be sent down to AAA for seasoning, possibly as early as April/May. That being said, he's a guy that I think could easily steal 60 bases in 100-110 games. The fact that he stole 13 bases in 13 games (19 plate appearances, 7 base hits) is nuts, I can't even comprehend that. Over or pass IMO.

Convinced me to bet over58.5 at BetOnline...went to rebet and they moved it to 62.5...hope it lands on 59 60 61 or 62

 

[got_nugs]

Loco

Much respect lately. Your best plays have been winning me cash.

If you aren't tailing LOCO, you're doing it wrong.

He's been crazy hot lately for sure.

 

[LOCO]

Loco

Much respect lately. Your best plays have been winning me cash.

If you aren't tailing LOCO, you're doing it wrong.

Thanks bud. Thanks for all ur winners in tennis.

 

[Frostillicus]

61 combined points in the first half for WVU/Oklahoma is quite unexpected.

 

[got_nugs]

GOALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL CAPS! PEANUT BUTTER OVER TIME!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[LOCO]

5 pt tease. Getting fancy.

Oregon st + 14.5

Unlv + 7.5

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Various projection systems projections for Hamilton steals:

Steamer: 67

ZIPS: 68

Oliver: 64

 

[Raider Nation]

I like these 4 SOG plays the best today:

NYR O33.5 (-120)

CGY O27.5 (-120)

OTT U31.5 (-120)

PHI O30.5 (-120)

like this one a little:

MTL U28.5 (-120)

it's a small card, but Rangers and Flames probably the stronger of the four.

Nice job. For the entire 3rd period, it looked as though Calgary's over had no shot and Ottawa's under had no shot. But a late Sens penalty sealed both bets. The Philly over was a heartbreaker. Missed by 0.5. Got a big lead and stopped skating in the 3rd.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

line moves made a big difference today.

NYR O33.5 (-120) - covered by .5 at end of regulation but added 3 more in OT

CGY O27.5 (-120) - covered by .5
OTT U31.5 (-120) - covered by .5
PHI O30.5 (-120) - lost by .5

MTL U28.5 (-120) - covered by .5 in regulation but lost in OT

3-2 here

obviously when things are that close, line moves are big.

NYR O34.5 (-135) - WIN

CGY O28.5 (-140) - LOSS by .5

PHI O31.5 (-135) - LOSS by 1.5

OTT U30.5 (-135) - LOSS by .5

MTL U28.0 (-130) - push in regulation, lost in OT

1-4 here

hopefully people got in early today.

 

[swirvenirvin]

:disgruntled Spartan alum warning:

Lots of talk this week on the Spartans locally after the lost back to back home games vs Nebraska and Illini and looking pitiful in doing so.

Player's only meeting

Since on Spring Break Izzo making them practice twice a day this week.

Media/fans getting pissed at Izzo and how he is handling team, questioning why Appling is playing when he can't shoot.

Harris getting mad and saying they are still a good team who will make a run



When stuff like this normally happens Izzo goes on some magical run, but I don't know this year. You don't get blown out at home vs Illini if you are a good team.

There has been so much coach speak this week that somehow it seems too much. Spartans are either done completely and lose outright to Iowa, or they win in a route tonight on senior night.



Big article on how Appling is "back" and has confidence again. http://www.freep.com/article/20140306/COL38/303060024/keith-appling-michigan-state-basketball-iowa



I'll believe it when I see it.

MSU has won 17 straight at breslin vs Iowa, and 5 in row overall



Iowa ML for me

:disgruntled Spartan alum warning:

 

[comfortably numb]

:disgruntled Spartan alum warning:

Lots of talk this week on the Spartans locally after the lost back to back home games vs Nebraska and Illini and looking pitiful in doing so.

Player's only meeting

Since on Spring Break Izzo making them practice twice a day this week.

Media/fans getting pissed at Izzo and how he is handling team, questioning why Appling is playing when he can't shoot.

Harris getting mad and saying they are still a good team who will make a run



When stuff like this normally happens Izzo goes on some magical run, but I don't know this year. You don't get blown out at home vs Illini if you are a good team.

There has been so much coach speak this week that somehow it seems too much. Spartans are either done completely and lose outright to Iowa, or they win in a route tonight on senior night.



Big article on how Appling is "back" and has confidence again. http://www.freep.com/article/20140306/COL38/303060024/keith-appling-michigan-state-basketball-iowa



I'll believe it when I see it.

MSU has won 17 straight at breslin vs Iowa, and 5 in row overall



Iowa ML for me

:disgruntled Spartan alum warning:

hmmm,

had my eye on MSU to start getting hot with this game

 

[swirvenirvin]

:disgruntled Spartan alum warning:

Lots of talk this week on the Spartans locally after the lost back to back home games vs Nebraska and Illini and looking pitiful in doing so.

Player's only meeting

Since on Spring Break Izzo making them practice twice a day this week.

Media/fans getting pissed at Izzo and how he is handling team, questioning why Appling is playing when he can't shoot.

Harris getting mad and saying they are still a good team who will make a run



When stuff like this normally happens Izzo goes on some magical run, but I don't know this year. You don't get blown out at home vs Illini if you are a good team.

There has been so much coach speak this week that somehow it seems too much. Spartans are either done completely and lose outright to Iowa, or they win in a route tonight on senior night.



Big article on how Appling is "back" and has confidence again. http://www.freep.com/article/20140306/COL38/303060024/keith-appling-michigan-state-basketball-iowa



I'll believe it when I see it.

MSU has won 17 straight at breslin vs Iowa, and 5 in row overall



Iowa ML for me

:disgruntled Spartan alum warning:

hmmm,

had my eye on MSU to start getting hot with this game

very well could be, and like I said this is when izzo loves to prove his doubters wrong. If this wasn't "my" team i would think bounce back in this game too. But I have seen nothing the last 10 games that shows me the Spartans are a good team. Teams haven't even needed to defend Appling the last few weeks yet Izzo continues to play him 25-30 minutes a game. Two weeks ago he said his wrist was fine too, and he has done nothing since then besides slap the floor after MSU goes on a 4-0 run. He can't even make FT's

 

[comfortably numb]

Don't follow golf that close. Am I reading correctly?

Tiger is ranked #1 in the world?

Thought he has been stinking it up last couple years?

 

[LOCO]

:disgruntled Spartan alum warning:

Lots of talk this week on the Spartans locally after the lost back to back home games vs Nebraska and Illini and looking pitiful in doing so.

Player's only meeting

Since on Spring Break Izzo making them practice twice a day this week.

Media/fans getting pissed at Izzo and how he is handling team, questioning why Appling is playing when he can't shoot.

Harris getting mad and saying they are still a good team who will make a run



When stuff like this normally happens Izzo goes on some magical run, but I don't know this year. You don't get blown out at home vs Illini if you are a good team.

There has been so much coach speak this week that somehow it seems too much. Spartans are either done completely and lose outright to Iowa, or they win in a route tonight on senior night.



Big article on how Appling is "back" and has confidence again. http://www.freep.com/article/20140306/COL38/303060024/keith-appling-michigan-state-basketball-iowa



I'll believe it when I see it.

MSU has won 17 straight at breslin vs Iowa, and 5 in row overall



Iowa ML for me

:disgruntled Spartan alum warning:

hmmm,

had my eye on MSU to start getting hot with this game

very well could be, and like I said this is when izzo loves to prove his doubters wrong. If this wasn't "my" team i would think bounce back in this game too. But I have seen nothing the last 10 games that shows me the Spartans are a good team. Teams haven't even needed to defend Appling the last few weeks yet Izzo continues to play him 25-30 minutes a game. Two weeks ago he said his wrist was fine too, and he has done nothing since then besides slap the floor after MSU goes on a 4-0 run. He can't even make FT's

Just dont see spartans losing 3 straight home games. Tricky game.

 

[comfortably numb]

Yesterday went

4-1 on 1H o/u in NCAA

2-0 on o/u in NHL

0-1 on soccer parlay

3-1 on Aaron's SOG

 

[lumpy19]

Don't follow golf that close. Am I reading correctly?

Tiger is ranked #1 in the world?

Thought he has been stinking it up last couple years?

Well he hasn't won any majors but he's been winning tourneys. He set the bar pretty high before the sexfest controversy. Pretty hard to keep that up.

 

[comfortably numb]

Don't follow golf that close. Am I reading correctly?

Tiger is ranked #1 in the world?

Thought he has been stinking it up last couple years?

Well he hasn't won any majors but he's been winning tourneys. He set the bar pretty high before the sexfest controversy. Pretty hard to keep that up.

Ah ok, didn't even realize he has been winning tourneys.

 

[swirvenirvin]

Don't follow golf that close. Am I reading correctly?

Tiger is ranked #1 in the world?

Thought he has been stinking it up last couple years?

Well he hasn't won any majors but he's been winning tourneys. He set the bar pretty high before the sexfest controversy. Pretty hard to keep that up.

Ah ok, didn't even realize he has been winning tourneys.

the rankings for golf are a joke. Never liked the way they did them

 

[lumpy19]

LBJ +250 to win MVP(at betonline)

+220 at sportsbook

I'll take +250 in such a close race

 

[TheGooRoo]

swirvenirvin, on 06 Mar 2014 - 09:05 AM, said::disgruntled Spartan alum warning:

Lots of talk this week on the Spartans locally after the lost back to back home games vs Nebraska and Illini and looking pitiful in doing so.

Player's only meeting

Since on Spring Break Izzo making them practice twice a day this week.

Media/fans getting pissed at Izzo and how he is handling team, questioning why Appling is playing when he can't shoot.

Harris getting mad and saying they are still a good team who will make a run



When stuff like this normally happens Izzo goes on some magical run, but I don't know this year. You don't get blown out at home vs Illini if you are a good team.

There has been so much coach speak this week that somehow it seems too much. Spartans are either done completely and lose outright to Iowa, or they win in a route tonight on senior night.



Big article on how Appling is "back" and has confidence again. http://www.freep.com/article/20140306/COL38/303060024/keith-appling-michigan-state-basketball-iowa



I'll believe it when I see it.

MSU has won 17 straight at breslin vs Iowa, and 5 in row overall



Iowa ML for me

:disgruntled Spartan alum warning:

Two dime Tuesday went so well with my alum that I'm making today three dime Thursday with your alumn. Go green, ML.

 

[LOCO]

swirvenirvin, on 06 Mar 2014 - 09:05 AM, said::disgruntled Spartan alum warning:

Lots of talk this week on the Spartans locally after the lost back to back home games vs Nebraska and Illini and looking pitiful in doing so.

Player's only meeting

Since on Spring Break Izzo making them practice twice a day this week.

Media/fans getting pissed at Izzo and how he is handling team, questioning why Appling is playing when he can't shoot.

Harris getting mad and saying they are still a good team who will make a run



When stuff like this normally happens Izzo goes on some magical run, but I don't know this year. You don't get blown out at home vs Illini if you are a good team.

There has been so much coach speak this week that somehow it seems too much. Spartans are either done completely and lose outright to Iowa, or they win in a route tonight on senior night.



Big article on how Appling is "back" and has confidence again. http://www.freep.com/article/20140306/COL38/303060024/keith-appling-michigan-state-basketball-iowa



I'll believe it when I see it.

MSU has won 17 straight at breslin vs Iowa, and 5 in row overall



Iowa ML for me

:disgruntled Spartan alum warning:

Two dime Tuesday went so well with my alum that I'm making today three dime Thursday with your alumn. Go green, ML.

IN.

Go spartans!!

 

[ChainsawU]

DePaul 100/103

Database had me turnt up on this one with Butler's move from the A10. The database still lists them in the A10. These teams don't have much history aside from DePaul winning 99-94 in overtime at Butler on Jan 9 as 9-point underdogs. Sagarin made this a pk. This was my original angle:

Big East versus A10 this season:

SU: 26-5 (10.90, 83.9%)

ATS: 22-8-1 (5.89, 73.3%) avg line: -5.0

 

[comfortably numb]

280 to win 200

Scott over Tiger for RD1

 

[ChainsawU]

Last night I thought the Spurs line was sure to move closer to even money. Consensus #s say the 60/40 majority is firmly on the Heat. I might drop a grip if I can get even money on the Spurs during live betting, real talk. Line got me turnt up.

 

[ChainsawU]

LeBron for MVP might catch some value tonight.

 

[ChainsawU]

The Spurs are 4-9 SU and 6-7 ATS (avg line 3.2) versus the Heat since the LeBron trade (3-2 SU and ATS at home against an average line of -1.7). The Spurs are 2-1 SU and ATS as the home favorite versus the Heat since the LeBron trade. The average margin of victory in the games where the Spurs were favored at home was 33 points ±3.

Spurs 1Q -1 115/100

 

[Frostillicus]

Goodwin under 6.5 Rebs

Kilpatrick under 2.5 made 3s

Harris under 2.5 made 3s

 

[Frostillicus]

White under 7.5 Rebs.

 

[Frostillicus]

Having a drink at a Beef O'Brady's. Thought of you guys.

 

[John Bender]

LOCO

Whatcha got tonight gb?

 

[ChainsawU]

This is a sandwich game for the Spurs. They just won on the road versus the Cavaliers and they get the Magic at home on Saturday. Spurs have a day of rest after tonight before the Magic come to town and then two more days of rest before going to Chicago.