FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (10 Viewers)

[Doctor Detroit]

Hustle&Flow on TMCHD

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Ask GooRoo if you respect him. Guarantee he would easily back the Padres tonight. Easily an +EV play.

Especially since they are up by a touchdown.

That wasn't my point. Fernandez is only an okay pitcher on the road. He's a monster at home. The Marlins, in all aspects, are a very bad road team.

Not even trying to be a #### here but if you think you identified some +EV play against Fernandez tonight you're off. You lol'd my .64 WHIP vs Padres and the .569 Padres OPS, but try these then.

3.63 ERA

1.15 WHIP

10.5 K/9

.606 OppOPS

3/1 K/BB

Those are not "okay" numbers, those are very above average.

Cliff Lee's career road stats:

3.72 ERA

1.21 WHIP

7 K/9

.697 oppOPS

3.4 K/BB

74-43 record

Lee is a random choice of an elite pitcher, but look up Kershaw, Verlander, or whomever you like. Elite pitchers on the road are always a decent bet, and the numbers support that argument. We all know pitchers are generally better at home, but elite pitchers are going to be above average everywhere. Fernandez is elite by all measures.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

You know it's hard out here for a pimp...

 

[modogg]

Mo! Did you see my question of playing Matt Brown as a 2:1 dog this weekend?

nope, but i already put money on it . it's a good fight, but that number is off in my opinion

Yeah me too. Thanks bud!

haven't looked much at all, but got money on Brown,

Cruishank +350

Natal -150

probably;y will find more

 

[got_nugs]

Mo! Did you see my question of playing Matt Brown as a 2:1 dog this weekend?

nope, but i already put money on it . it's a good fight, but that number is off in my opinion

Yeah me too. Thanks bud!

haven't looked much at all, but got money on Brown,

Cruishank +350

Natal -150

probably;y will find more

I also like smolka Larkin and may parlay 1 or more with wineland. Will add 'shank. Let's get it

 

[modogg]

Mo! Did you see my question of playing Matt Brown as a 2:1 dog this weekend?

nope, but i already put money on it . it's a good fight, but that number is off in my opinion

Yeah me too. Thanks bud!

haven't looked much at all, but got money on Brown,

Cruishank +350

Natal -150

probably;y will find more

I also like smolka Larkin and may parlay 1 or more with wineland. Will add 'shank. Let's get it

yeah i was leaning those 2 (Larkin and Wineland) as well. the wineland fight is weird, he should be fighting much better competition higher up on the card

 

[tjnc09]

Ask GooRoo if you respect him. Guarantee he would easily back the Padres tonight. Easily an +EV play.

Especially since they are up by a touchdown.

That wasn't my point. Fernandez is only an okay pitcher on the road. He's a monster at home. The Marlins, in all aspects, are a very bad road team.

Not even trying to be a #### here but if you think you identified some +EV play against Fernandez tonight you're off. You lol'd my .64 WHIP vs Padres and the .569 Padres OPS, but try these then.

3.63 ERA

1.15 WHIP

10.5 K/9

.606 OppOPS

3/1 K/BB

Those are not "okay" numbers, those are very above average.

Cliff Lee's career road stats:

3.72 ERA

1.21 WHIP

7 K/9

.697 oppOPS

3.4 K/BB

74-43 record

Lee is a random choice of an elite pitcher, but look up Kershaw, Verlander, or whomever you like. Elite pitchers on the road are always a decent bet, and the numbers support that argument. We all know pitchers are generally better at home, but elite pitchers are going to be above average everywhere. Fernandez is elite by all measures.

Before tonight, the Marlins were 6-9 in Fernandez's road starts. They were 3-10 on the road and Fernandez himself was 4-7 on the road. In the simplest sense, how is fading him on the road not a +EV spot especially at tonight's closing lines that were roughly +120 to +125? San Diego has been a PATHETIC road team from 2013-2014 for the two starts Fernandez threw against them. Those results have to be discounted when considering Fernandez's home/away splits and Padres home/away splits.

 

[tjnc09]

Also, when I said "Fernandez is only an okay pitcher on the road" that has a lot to do with the team that surrounds him.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Mo! Did you see my question of playing Matt Brown as a 2:1 dog this weekend?

nope, but i already put money on it . it's a good fight, but that number is off in my opinion

Yeah me too. Thanks bud!

haven't looked much at all, but got money on Brown,

Cruishank +350

Natal -150

probably;y will find more

Cruishank is +380 at 5D reduced.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Who has the fancy stats and the +EV picks for this day in baseball?

 

[Frostillicus]

MIN/DET u 8

 

[Doctor Detroit]

MIN/DET u 8

This is fancy! IN!

 

[Leroy Hoard]

MIN/DET u 8

This is fancy! IN!

MOSTLY SUNNY, WIND OUT TO LEFT 8-13. GAME TEMP 68, RH 35%

 

[got_nugs]

I can't wait until my bookie sees a 1.5u live NBA bet from me.

That has NEVER happened before.

With all due respect (which usually precedes a statement of the exact opposite) you're all boobs if you haven't been tailing lebronisaw in the playoffs.Sorry in advance for the kiss of death chain. It was amazing while it lasted.

I've played a few but they always split when I do. I figure I'll not bet them and let you guys clean up.

Your sacrifice for the betterment of this thread does not go unnoticed.

 

[got_nugs]

Do unearned runs count in o/u?

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Neat sport

 

[got_nugs]

Heat/nets under, sa team total over. Rinse/repeat

 

[ChainsawU]

I can't wait until my bookie sees a 1.5u live NBA bet from me.

That has NEVER happened before.

With all due respect (which usually precedes a statement of the exact opposite) you're all boobs if you haven't been tailing lebronisaw in the playoffs.

Sorry in advance for the kiss of death chain. It was amazing while it lasted.

I've played a few but they always split when I do. I figure I'll not bet them and let you guys clean up.

Your sacrifice for the betterment of this thread does not go unnoticed.

Luck may be the most mysterious and capricious force in the universe. But what exactly is luck? Why do some of us win the lottery twice while others have bad luck for no apparent reason? What is behind strange coincidences and incredible twists of fate? Does random chance decide our destiny? Or is every role of the dice predetermined by physics?

Do we make our own luck, or does our luck make us? The world is filled with the unknown and the uncertain. And our brains are built to try to make sense of it. Some things make sense, some don't. But of all the mysteries we face, one looms above them all: When will our luck run out?

 

[Frostillicus]

Ice cold

 

[ChainsawU]

I thought it was interesting to get the same line on both games tonight. When I first looked at the lines I was like, okay San Antonio is getting 1.5 points, that makes sense to me. But I must have read it wrong. Even with home court, Sagarin says it should be Spurs -2 and Heat -3. So then why did they open those lines like that? To get 61-74% of the public to bet the Heat and then reverse the line movement?

On the other hand, I'm pretty sure they dummied the RLM on the Thunder on Wednesday night from -5.5 to -5. So.. which one is it? I don't think anyone can really honestly pick either one of the two games tonight.

 

[Raider Nation]

Ice cold

Welcome aboard. We are powerless even with fancy stats.

 

[tjnc09]

[SIZE=9pt]5/10/14 12:38pm[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]$345.00[/SIZE]​

[SIZE=9pt]$300.00[/SIZE]​

[SIZE=9pt]Pending[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]5/10/14 1:05pm Reduced Baseball 915 Minnesota Twins/Detroit Tigers Over 8 -115*[/SIZE] (K Gibson - R must Start M Scherzer - R must Start)

[SIZE=9pt]5/10/14 12:39pm[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]$100.00[/SIZE]​

[SIZE=9pt]$240.00[/SIZE]​

[SIZE=9pt]Pending[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]5/10/14 1:05pm MLB Baseball 915 Minnesota Twins +240*[/SIZE] [SIZE=7.5pt]vs[/SIZE][SIZE=9pt] Detroit Tigers (K Gibson - R must Start M Scherzer - R must Start)[/SIZE]

 

[Raider Nation]

This guy still isn't getting the concept.

 

[ChainsawU]

What's happening when a player appears to have a "hot hand," a spectacularly good run of play? Is something supernatural going on? The answer is no. On average, a 50% shooter will make about half of his shots. Seven shots in a row sounds incredible, but remember, the seven shots in a row occurred in a larger context. These streaks can be seen in every performance-based field, from sports performance, to sales, to stock traders. What appears to be a hot or cold streak is simply failure to take a big enough sample. Which is why we should not be too pleased with any of our successes (or unhappy with our failures).

 

[Raider Nation]

Frosty was winning when the game started.

 

[got_nugs]

Saw. I don't want to see the man behind the curtain. We all know most of these things rest on the bounce of a ball, the millisecond fast twitch muscle decision. Let us be enamored by your run....it deserves recognition.

I'll save the details but 7 years of remission gone in an instant just recently. I appreciate the nonsense you guys put up with and subsequent comedy this thread provides to me personally. It's a safe haven for me, even if only on the iWeb. I do know that if there is a god, he better watch his ####### back. If there isn't and this is just luck, I'd prefer not tie it in to Sawstrodamus. A kid shouldn't have to go through this.

So, heat/nets?

 

[Raider Nation]

Sorry man.... :(

Thoughts and prayers. Tell her to kick its ### again!!!

 

[ChainsawU]

I can't call it, bro. I'm not going to be around for the game. My mom's in town. I was in the zone yesterday though. I stopped into this place called Sally Beauty Supply. There were two chicks working, and you could tell that one of them was the alpha chick, probably the manager. She was dark and she had pretty eyes. She wasn't willing to help out at first, but I was on a confidence high after having just bought a sweet t-shirt next door at Target that I had worn out of the store. So I asked if they could help me find a unique mother's day gift - but nothing like a ceramic hair straightener or anything - which they are uniquely known for having. You should have seen them bro. As I lovingly described my mom to them in an effort to help them decide what to pick out for me, combined with my knowledge of ceramic hair straighteners, you could see them getting wetter and wetter. You could tell they don't get dudes in there very much, and this dude was in here buying for his mom! Total panty dropper, and then the Thunder happened. Happy mother's day fellas.

 

[got_nugs]

I can't call it, bro. I'm not going to be around for the game. My mom's in town. I was in the zone yesterday though. I stopped into this place called Sally Beauty Supply. There were two chicks working, and you could tell that one of them was the alpha chick, probably the manager. She was dark and she had pretty eyes. She wasn't willing to help out at first, but I was on a confidence high after having just bought a sweet t-shirt next door at Target that I had worn out of the store. So I asked if they could help me find a unique mother's day gift - but nothing like a ceramic hair straightener or anything - which they are uniquely known for having. You should have seen them bro. As I lovingly described my mom to them in an effort to help them decide what to pick out for me, combined with my knowledge of ceramic hair straighteners, you could see them getting wetter and wetter. You could tell they don't get dudes in there very much, and this dude was in here buying for his mom! Total panty dropper, and then the Thunder happened. Happy mother's day fellas.

Precisely.

 

[Raider Nation]

Happy mother's day fellas.

Thanks!

 

[Frostillicus]

HOU/BAL o 8.5 -110

CHC/ATL u 7 -125

CLE/TB u 8 -115

WAS/OAK u 7 -115

 

[Raider Nation]

I'm really leaning u6.5 in the SF/LAD game at 4:00. The Dodgers aren't hitting and Greinke is Greinke. What worries me is that if the weather data is accurate, it's showing the wind blowing straight out to right-center at 15mph.

Here is a chance for tjnc to tell us what the +EV play is before the game starts.

 

[tjnc09]

I'm really leaning u6.5 in the SF/LAD game at 4:00. The Dodgers aren't hitting and Greinke is Greinke. What worries me is that if the weather data is accurate, it's showing the wind blowing straight out to right-center at 15mph.

Here is a chance for tjnc to tell us what the +EV play is before the game starts.

Matt Cain hasn't pitched since 4/23 - this is his first start since coming off the DL, so it's really difficult to say if he is going to be sharp today or rusty. The last time these two pitchers met Greinke lost 6-2. I'm not playing this game - I really don't like either side or total.

 

[Raider Nation]

Guess not. No fun pontificating before one team has 7 runs on the board.

 

[tjnc09]

Besides, the Dodgers have to score at some point at home vs SF - they can't average 1 rpg forever.

Sorry in advance if it's 1-0

 

[got_nugs]

Guess not. No fun pontificating before one team has 7 runs on the board.

I feel like pontificating was used as a derogatory term of in deer mint here.

:mygroupersandwichtastedfishy:

 

[got_nugs]

Also----

SPIET to the H!

 

[Whomper]

White sox over 4 is my play today

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Ice cold

Like the Twins franchise.

 

[Frostillicus]

Ice cold

Like the Twins franchise.

Kicked Kate Upton's girlfriend's ### last night.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Ice cold

Like the Twins franchise.

Kicked Kate Upton's girlfriend's ### last night.

Yeah two runs over seven innings is a serious ###-kicking.

 

[Frostillicus]

Ice cold

Like the Twins franchise.

Kicked Kate Upton's girlfriend's ### last night.

Yeah two runs over seven innings is a serious ###-kicking.

It is for the Twins vs. Verlander.

 

[Frostillicus]

Today was our first actually summery day so I cleaned the gutters, cleaned the grill, took the kids the park, and fixed the toilet. Pretty productive day. Celebrating with a Twisted Tea. Bourbon later.

 

[NIU Kicker]

Today was our first actually summery day so I cleaned the gutters, cleaned the grill, took the kids the park, and fixed the toilet. Pretty productive day. Celebrating with a Twisted Tea. Bourbon later.

Spent the day with my old lady buying plants and trees and planting in our back yard and getting the pool chemistry right for tomorrow. Right now it's 50/50 between another date night with the wife or going out to play cards and watch ufc tonight. Sad to say which option I'm rooting for...

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Today was our first actually summery day so I cleaned the gutters, cleaned the grill, took the kids the park, and fixed the toilet. Pretty productive day. Celebrating with a Twisted Tea. Bourbon later.

I fixed the floor in my shed today and I have to power wash the deck and siding tomorrow. Under the floor in the shed I found three movie tickets from 2002 for the movie the Pianist.

Also drinking won't make the Twins suck any less.

 

[Raider Nation]

Jets take Tajh Boyd. Unless they didn't bother watching any of his game film, I have to wonder if they view him as something other than a QB.

 

[The Ref]

Jets take Tajh Boyd. Unless they didn't bother watching any of his game film, I have to wonder if they view him as something other than a QB.

Remember when the discussion was JF, Mariota or Boyd for first QB taken this year?

 

[Raider Nation]

I'm really leaning u6.5 in the SF/LAD game at 4:00. The Dodgers aren't hitting and Greinke is Greinke.

Of course, the one thing I would have won, I didn't play it. Can't do anything right lately.

 

[Tiger Fan]

Tonight is the night. I'll be drinking by myself!

 

[Tiger Fan]

Current RB balance -$666