FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (10 Viewers)

[modogg]

I'm having a hard time figuring out what to do with the NFL this Thursday. I am sure the line is different, but i am making my picks for our FFAWT contest (Yes!) and i see New England -9.5 vs. the jets. One, Belicheck has no qualms running up the score and beating the Jets seems to bring them pleasure. But you also have to think Ryan goes balls out in this one to beat New England and to build his team up a bit. I would think onsides kick to open the game, all kinds of stuff. i don't think the Jets can do much, but they did hang with Denver better then i thought they would, at least to start the game

FWIW, I'm a diehard, albeit semi-denounced Jet fan: me and a buddy are one of 17 entries left in a 104k pot survivor pool. Happily and confidently taking NE this week. This is a beaten team and I feel like it's got 35-6 written all over it.

Woah. Nice job bud. I have a hard time shaking the early season Pats out of my head (they really should have lost that game to Oakland), but no way Belicheck lets the team come out soft in a divisional game. He reminds me of Andy Reid like that. Eagles could have a terrible team, but they always played Giants, Skins and Cowpokes tough under him

 

[got_nugs]

I think he's closer to Peyton Manning. I know, maybe i'm also crazy.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

nuggsie, Winston could be the most talented QB ever to come out, and it wouldn't matter. After Leaf and JaMarcus, teams are scared to deaf of investing time and money into a headcase.

He seems more like Cam Newton to me.

How so? He's far more accurate (at the same stage) and a far worse runner.

Stud dual threat QBs who won national championships in their first year as a starter. Both have character concerns coming into the draft.

 

[Raider Nation]

Honest question: What were Cam's character concerns? I don't recall.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Honest question: What were Cam's character concerns? I don't recall.

Wasn't he booted from Florida for stealing laptops or cheating on tests or both?

 

[jamil]

Honest question: What were Cam's character concerns? I don't recall.

Stole that laptop and threw it out of the window when confronted. Left Florida (or did he get booted?), juco then the whole 180k thing. When he was coming out people kept calling him "fake," playing up to cameras. All I can remember. No alleged sexual assaults that I recall.

 

[Raider Nation]

Oh, right.

 

[tonydead]

I'm having a hard time figuring out what to do with the NFL this Thursday. I am sure the line is different, but i am making my picks for our FFAWT contest (Yes!) and i see New England -9.5 vs. the jets. One, Belicheck has no qualms running up the score and beating the Jets seems to bring them pleasure. But you also have to think Ryan goes balls out in this one to beat New England and to build his team up a bit. I would think onsides kick to open the game, all kinds of stuff. i don't think the Jets can do much, but they did hang with Denver better then i thought they would, at least to start the game

TNB

 

[The Ref]

Honest question: What were Cam's character concerns? I don't recall.

Wasn't he booted from Florida for stealing laptops or cheating on tests or both?

The main thing is he isn't' as financially motivated to play for Carolina, he had to take a 50% paycut to leave Auburn.

 

[comfortably numb]

SB has Manning TD prop.

what game will he break the record

-125 SF

-120 SD

+2500 NE

So this is essentially -125 for over 2.5 TDs against SF on Sunday night.

I like those odds.

-140Even

-160

+110

 

[Tiger Fan]

Fantasy question - non PPR

Sammy Watkins or Malcolm Floyd

Antoine Smith, Bishop Sankey or McKinnon

 

[Tiger Fan]

SB has Manning TD prop.

what game will he break the record

-125 SF

-120 SD

+2500 NE

So this is essentially -125 for over 2.5 TDs against SF on Sunday night.

I like those odds.

-140Even

-160

+110

Man I hope they have this in Vegas

 

[Treynwreck3]

Probably wont help the cause if the raiders finish 2-14 and have the #1 and all the talk is they are taking Mariota or Winston.

No worries there. I think everyone is convinced Carr is the future. Not to mention there are so many other holes to fill.

if them and the Jags wind up 1 and 2, could be lots of teams trying to trade up for Mariota or Winston I guess.Winston to Tampa?

Mariota to the Jets?

Houston will be in the mix.

 

[hagmania]

Fantasy question - non PPR

Sammy Watkins or Malcolm Floyd

Antoine Smith, Bishop Sankey or McKinnon

Helped you out a little bit imo. WAS has been pretty tough against the run.

 

[comfortably numb]

Keeping an eye on Gronk props tonight

He seems to be coming back into form

Last 2 games

6/100 TD

7/94

last 4 games against the Jets

4/31

8/113 2TD

6/78 2TD

8/114

The Jets against TEs this year

W1 OAK

Rivera 3/31

W2 GB

Quarless 1/8

W3 CHI

Bennett 5/54 2TD

W4 DET

Ebron 3/34 TD

W5 SD

Gates 4/60 2TD

W6 DEN

Thomas 4/52 2TD

Any chance Gronk DOESN"T get in the endzone tonight???

Here are his current props at SB

TD and win the game -162

100+yds +225

2+TDs +400

9+ rec +600

125+yds +750

3+ TDs +2500

Score a TD -142

Score 1st TD if game +500

I like the bolded in terms of best value and will be on look out for his o/u yardage prop for the game.

 

[Tiger Fan]

Keeping an eye on Gronk props tonight

He seems to be coming back into form

Last 2 games

6/100 TD

7/94

last 4 games against the Jets

4/31

8/113 2TD

6/78 2TD

8/114

The Jets against TEs this year

W1 OAK

Rivera 3/31

W2 GB

Quarless 1/8

W3 CHI

Bennett 5/54 2TD

W4 DET

Ebron 3/34 TD

W5 SD

Gates 4/60 2TD

W6 DEN

Thomas 4/52 2TD

Any chance Gronk DOESN"T get in the endzone tonight???

Here are his current props at SB

TD and win the game -162

100+yds +225

2+TDs +400

9+ rec +600

125+yds +750

3+ TDs +2500

Score a TD -142

Score 1st TD if game +500

I like the bolded in terms of best value and will be on look out for his o/u yardage prop for the game.

score a TD and win the game should be +162, right?

 

[comfortably numb]

Keeping an eye on Gronk props tonight

He seems to be coming back into form

Last 2 games

6/100 TD

7/94

last 4 games against the Jets

4/31

8/113 2TD

6/78 2TD

8/114

The Jets against TEs this year

W1 OAK

Rivera 3/31

W2 GB

Quarless 1/8

W3 CHI

Bennett 5/54 2TD

W4 DET

Ebron 3/34 TD

W5 SD

Gates 4/60 2TD

W6 DEN

Thomas 4/52 2TD

Any chance Gronk DOESN"T get in the endzone tonight???

Here are his current props at SB

TD and win the game -162

100+yds +225

2+TDs +400

9+ rec +600

125+yds +750

3+ TDs +2500

Score a TD -142

Score 1st TD if game +500

I like the bolded in terms of best value and will be on look out for his o/u yardage prop for the game.

score a TD and win the game should be +162, right?

I see -162, don't LOVE that number but I think it happens but yea, the -142 is a no brainer on value when comparing to the -162

wonder if one of them is a mistake?

 

[comfortably numb]

Keeping an eye on Gronk props tonight

He seems to be coming back into form

Last 2 games

6/100 TD

7/94

last 4 games against the Jets

4/31

8/113 2TD

6/78 2TD

8/114

The Jets against TEs this year

W1 OAK

Rivera 3/31

W2 GB

Quarless 1/8

W3 CHI

Bennett 5/54 2TD

W4 DET

Ebron 3/34 TD

W5 SD

Gates 4/60 2TD

W6 DEN

Thomas 4/52 2TD

Any chance Gronk DOESN"T get in the endzone tonight???

Here are his current props at SB

TD and win the game -162

100+yds +225

2+TDs +400

9+ rec +600

125+yds +750

3+ TDs +2500

Score a TD -142

Score 1st TD if game +500

I like the bolded in terms of best value and will be on look out for his o/u yardage prop for the game.

I am in on -142 to score a TD

waiting on yardage prop o/u

 

[mquinnjr]

Pats -9.5 to win 1U.

Take my money if hoodie only wins by a TD or less. Which would also mean Geno keeps is close at Gillette. Again, take my money if that happens.

 

[comfortably numb]

Keeping an eye on Gronk props tonight

He seems to be coming back into form

Last 2 games

6/100 TD

7/94

last 4 games against the Jets

4/31

8/113 2TD

6/78 2TD

8/114

The Jets against TEs this year

W1 OAK

Rivera 3/31

W2 GB

Quarless 1/8

W3 CHI

Bennett 5/54 2TD

W4 DET

Ebron 3/34 TD

W5 SD

Gates 4/60 2TD

W6 DEN

Thomas 4/52 2TD

Any chance Gronk DOESN"T get in the endzone tonight???

Here are his current props at SB

TD and win the game -162

100+yds +225

2+TDs +400

9+ rec +600

125+yds +750

3+ TDs +2500

Score a TD -142

Score 1st TD if game +500

I like the bolded in terms of best value and will be on look out for his o/u yardage prop for the game.

I am in on -142 to score a TD

waiting on yardage prop o/u

SB has Gronk at

o/u 5.5 rec -125

o/u 74.5yds -115

will think about this some but initial thought is o5.5 looks OK

 

[lumpy19]

Pats -9.5 to win 1U.

Take my money if hoodie only wins by a TD or less. Which would also mean Geno keeps is close at Gillette. Again, take my money if that happens.

I agree

Denver is -10 in NY....3 days later NE is -9.5 at home on a short week? Doesn't make sense to me.

 

[swirvenirvin]

RB Bet Unit Rush Under 1.8 1.4Rush Over 0.7 0.8Rush+Rec Over 0.7 0.8Rush+Rec Under 1.3 1.2Receptions Over 0.8 0.9Receptions Under 1.6 1.3Receiving Over 0.7 0.9Receiving Under 0.9 1.0WR Bet Unit Receptions Over 1.0 1.0Receptions Under 1.2 1.1Receiving Over 1.0 1.0Receiving Under 1.0 1.0QB Bet Unit Passing Over 1.3 1.1Passing Under 1.0 1.0Completion Over 1.1 1.0Completion Under 1.4 1.2Rushing Over 1.0 1.0Rushing Under 1.1 1.0TE Bet Unit Receptions Over 1.0 1.0Receptions Under 1.3 1.1Receiving Over 0.4 0.7Receiving Under 2.5 1.8Units havent moved around too much

Only *.7 though on a TE receiving over.

Chandler went fo 6-105, Klece 8-93, and Rudolph 5 -53

Amaro over 35.5 -115

CJunder39.5K - under 39.5 rush+rec -105

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Under 44.5.

 

[Tiger Fan]

riding over 40 from the MNF tease

 

[ChainsawU]

If you are looking for a gift to give your woman get her some of these, they're hot right now. She will enjoy them.

 

[mquinnjr]

Fantasy question - non PPR

Sammy Watkins or Malcolm Floyd

Antoine Smith, Bishop Sankey or McKinnon

Helped you out a little bit imo. WAS has been pretty tough against the run.

Keeper league question: Standard scoring 12 teamer. RB's are Ellington (kept, available through 2016), Miller (can be kept through 2017), reggie bush, joique bell, ryan mathews. Drop ryan mathews for Tre Mason? Mason could be kept as a 6th through 2017, he got dropped and sailed through waivers. Short benches, long story short would have to drop a RB, Mathews is the only one I'm looking at currently, was dropped after injury and I scooped him up.

 

[ChainsawU]

Since 2006 teams coming off a bye after winning SU as double-digit underdogs are 19-11 SU and 18-9-2 ATS. Those teams are 10-2 SU and 8-2-2 ATS when they are lined less than 5 in either direction. Two teams fit that criteria this week, Utah and Arizona State, and they are both action junkie specials on national television. The under in those situations went 17-11-1 and 9-3-0, respectively, so went a little bit on the opposing team total as something else to root for tonight.

Utah -135

Oregon State Under 25 -110

Arizona State +3 -105

 

[swirvenirvin]

RB Bet Unit Rush Under 1.8 1.4Rush Over 0.7 0.8Rush+Rec Over 0.7 0.8Rush+Rec Under 1.3 1.2Receptions Over 0.8 0.9Receptions Under 1.6 1.3Receiving Over 0.7 0.9Receiving Under 0.9 1.0WR Bet Unit Receptions Over 1.0 1.0Receptions Under 1.2 1.1Receiving Over 1.0 1.0Receiving Under 1.0 1.0QB Bet Unit Passing Over 1.3 1.1Passing Under 1.0 1.0Completion Over 1.1 1.0Completion Under 1.4 1.2Rushing Over 1.0 1.0Rushing Under 1.1 1.0TE Bet Unit Receptions Over 1.0 1.0Receptions Under 1.3 1.1Receiving Over 0.4 0.7Receiving Under 2.5 1.8Units havent moved around too much

Only *.7 though on a TE receiving over.

Chandler went fo 6-105, Klece 8-93, and Rudolph 5 -53

Amaro over 35.5 -115

CJunder39.5K - under 39.5 rush+rec -105

added vereen under 72.5 rush.rec

 

[ChainsawU]

The Saints are 7-1 to the over after their bye week under Sean Payton and 5-0 SU and ATS after their bye L5 years. Most of the games were home games. link

 

[ChainsawU]

Since 2010 Pitt is 7-1 SU and ATS as the home favorite in conference play, but only 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS at home in conference play when they are lined ≥0.

Pitt -115

Not sure what to do with this now that BW is on VT.

 

[comfortably numb]

In for a

Gronk TD -142

Amaro o39.5 -120

1:1 Parlay

New England

Utah

both ML

 

[comfortably numb]

Aaron,

Sharks -120 @ NYI

Is that value or stay away from a hot Islander team?

 

[TheGooRoo.]

Vick u29.5 rushing yards(MUST PLAY) -115 1k

 

[mquinnjr]

Vick u29.5 rushing yards(MUST PLAY) -115 1k

GR, is that must be active/must start/must register in stat box (generally speaking, I know rules vary book to book)?

 

[lumpy19]

Vick u29.5 rushing yards(MUST PLAY) -115 1k

GR, is that must be active/must start/must register in stat box (generally speaking, I know rules vary book to book)?

He gets someone every time....it's amazing

 

[jamil]

Vick u29.5 rushing yards(MUST PLAY) -115 1k

GR, is that must be active/must start/must register in stat box (generally speaking, I know rules vary book to book)?

He gets someone every time....it's amazing

 

[mquinnjr]

Vick u29.5 rushing yards(MUST PLAY) -115 1k

GR, is that must be active/must start/must register in stat box (generally speaking, I know rules vary book to book)?

He gets someone every time....it's amazing

In my defense, Vick's on the roster, and has come off the bench this season.

But, yeah.

 

[comfortably numb]

Vick u29.5 rushing yards(MUST PLAY) -115 1k

GR, is that must be active/must start/must register in stat box (generally speaking, I know rules vary book to book)?

He gets someone every time....it's amazing

sooooo wrong but i must admit i laughed and was about to get check my books for Vick props

 

[hagmania]

Just got a STONE COLD LOCK via text

Jets +10



Think I might text him back.

 

[Raider Nation]

Pats -9.5 to win 1U.

Take my money if hoodie only wins by a TD or less. Which would also mean Geno keeps is close at Gillette. Again, take my money if that happens.

May I play Devil's Advocate for a moment?

<------ It's right there in my description.

The weather is awful here. Gonna be raining the whole game. Jets will surely go Ground & Pound, and NE just lost their MLB. Gray from Notre Dame was activated from the practice squad by the Pats; an indication that they also have a run-heavy game plan.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Aaron,

Sharks -120 @ NYI

Is that value or stay away from a hot Islander team?

feels like a coinflip to me.

 

[comfortably numb]

Aaron,

Sharks -120 @ NYI

Is that value or stay away from a hot Islander team?

feels like a coinflip to me.

Ok,

I did...

heads SJ tails NYI

landed heads

SJ -120

o5.5 -115 while i was at it

 

[mquinnjr]

Pats -9.5 to win 1U.

Take my money if hoodie only wins by a TD or less. Which would also mean Geno keeps is close at Gillette. Again, take my money if that happens.

May I play Devil's Advocate for a moment?

<------ It's right there in my description.

The weather is awful here. Gonna be raining the whole game. Jets will surely go Ground & Pound, and NE just lost their MLB. Gray from Notre Dame was activated from the practice squad by the Pats; an indication that they also have a run-heavy game plan.

No problem with that whatsoever. My play was booked when i posted, so maybe it helps the folks waiting until game time.

In my case, hope for the best and expect the worst.

Hoping that Vick under comes through

 

[swirvenirvin]

Ivory opened at 44.5 now at 50.5 at most places probably worth an over if you can still find 44.5

 

[Frostillicus]

Bovada:

Connor (pitt) u 125.5 -130

 

[TheGooRoo]

Nugs: No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+12) at No. 2 Florida State Seminoles

Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET, ABC

The Seminoles are 5-2 in the series and won the last meeting 18-14 in the 2011 Champs Sports Bowl. Obviously the most famous matchup in the series came back in 1993 when College GameDay made its first on-campus appearance to see No. 2 Notre Dame knock off No. 1 Florida State 31-24 in South Bend. The last time the Irish visited Tallahassee was back in 2002, when they came in unbeaten and upset the Seminoles 34-24.

Even though they have failed to cover five of their six games this year, the Seminoles still sport a program-record 22-game win streak after last week's 38-20 win over Syracuse. After outscoring their opponents by an incredible 40 points per game (and outgaining them by 238 yards per game) a year ago, they are "only" outscoring their foes by 18 PPG (and outgaining them by 104 YPG) this year. Jameis Winston's numbers have also fallen. After throwing four times as many TDs as INTs last year, he's only throwing double the amount of TDs to INTs this year. While it has been yet another distracting week off the field for Winston and the Seminoles, what's more worrisome on the field is a defense that has now allowed 400 or more yards in four of the last seven, including 412 last week to a Syracuse team that was playing a third-string quarterback most of the game.

On the other side, this will be Notre Dame's first true away game this year. Last week, it found itself in a flat spot against North Carolina and had to hang on for a 50-43 win to move to 6-0 for just the third time in the past 20 years. Its defense, which was allowing just 12 PPG prior, was gashed for 510 yards. Everett Golson continues to have turnover issues, with nine in the past three games after having zero in the first three. He still sports a 16-1 record as a starting quarterback, which is only bested by Winston's 19-0 mark among QBs with at least 10 starts.

Obviously, the Fighting Irish have some doubters, but this team is starting to feel like the one from that 2012 season. In 2012, they beat Stanford in the last seconds and escaped an upset in a flat spot against BYU, then traveled to Oklahoma where they found themselves a 12-point underdog to the Sooners. Notre Dame would win that one 30-13 en route to its first undefeated regular season since 1988. Now two years later, it is fresh off a win over Stanford in the waning seconds, survived a flat spot and now finds itself a 12-point underdog (opening line before it was taken off) on the road. Will history repeat itself or will the Seminoles continue to find a way to win amid all the distractions? This one goes down to the wire.

ATS pick: Notre Dame

Score: Florida State 33, Notre Dame 30

Sincerely,

Phil

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I'm playing overs on Dawan Landry and David Harris tonight.

Think it's 7.5 at sportsbook, 8 at bovada, and 8.5 at 5d.

not sure what impact of weather will be, but Jets crew is pretty generous and the Pats should still rely on guys like Vereen and Gronkowski and Edelman quite a bit, which should be ok for both guys.

no strong feel on the Patriots guys, but would probably lean over for Ninkovich since Mayo is out and under for McCourty since the Jets probably won't complete many passes downfield. Don't love the prices that are out there though.

 

[got_nugs]

Goo! Ty haven't read in full, on road. Question-how many games where Winston has started did fsu score 33 or less?

 

[mquinnjr]

My local doesn't have ND/FSU up yet, but I saw on 5Dimes:

Jameis Winston must start for action:

ND +10 -110

FSU -10 -110

Jameis Winston must not start for action:

ND +7.5 -110

FSU -7.5 -110

Interesting, Winston is less than a FG difference. Would think more than that.

 

[The Ref]

Pitt wins first face off tonight?