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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (5 Viewers)

sheerterror said:
Trying to figure out what to make of the Overeem-Sefo line lump. You're looking at your classic kickboxer vs. MMA fighter, so you've got to believe if Overeem gets this to the ground (and he'd be foolish not to do everything in his power to try) then the fight's over. If he has trouble, or decides to stand and bang, Sefo's going to knock him out. Overeem's got the ridiculous experience advantage with 50+ fights over a near 15 year career - but they've both got a lot of combat sport mileage, are both old, and have both been out of the cage for a while. Too many variables for me to make a play - but if I had to, I'd lean Overeem.
Click to expand...
Overeem fought New Year's Eve, demolishing Todd Duffee in 19 seconds
 
Tremendous Upside said:
sheerterror said:
Trying to figure out what to make of the Overeem-Sefo line lump. You're looking at your classic kickboxer vs. MMA fighter, so you've got to believe if Overeem gets this to the ground (and he'd be foolish not to do everything in his power to try) then the fight's over. If he has trouble, or decides to stand and bang, Sefo's going to knock him out. Overeem's got the ridiculous experience advantage with 50+ fights over a near 15 year career - but they've both got a lot of combat sport mileage, are both old, and have both been out of the cage for a while. Too many variables for me to make a play - but if I had to, I'd lean Overeem.
Click to expand...
Overeem fought New Year's Eve, demolishing Todd Duffee in 19 seconds
Click to expand...
That was Alistair, we're talking about his older brother Valentjin.
 
lumpy19 said:
sheerterror said:
Trying to figure out what to make of the Overeem-Sefo line lump. You're looking at your classic kickboxer vs. MMA fighter, so you've got to believe if Overeem gets this to the ground (and he'd be foolish not to do everything in his power to try) then the fight's over. If he has trouble, or decides to stand and bang, Sefo's going to knock him out. Overeem's got the ridiculous experience advantage with 50+ fights over a near 15 year career - but they've both got a lot of combat sport mileage, are both old, and have both been out of the cage for a while. Too many variables for me to make a play - but if I had to, I'd lean Overeem.
Click to expand...
Thanks, I have a bet on Overeem at -135 based off the advice of an MMA friend, glad to see you're at least leaning that way :thumbup:
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i would keep this one light, too may variables in this one to feel too good with either guy. there are better bets on this card, in my opinion.
 
sheerterror said:
Was going to wait closer to Saturday but I'll post this one up now, as the line is starting to go a little crazy. I don't post plays too often, but when I have one for my fellow FFA Wagering degenerates, you know it's something I really like a lot. Here's my post from the MMA Wagering thread:

Alright, here's a fight I've had my eye on for a while for several reasons. Gian Villante -240 over Chad Griggs at this Saturday's Strikeforce card. This will likely end up being one of, if not my biggest MMA bets ever.
Click to expand...
It is hard to predict line movement with some of these MMA bouts. I really thought the line would go in the other direction with Griggs "name value" (i put it in quotes because i can not imagine griggs has much name value at all). My only guess is that all of the money has come in on Gian, and that is why the line has moved so significantly. To think that a guy coming in for his first fight on a Strikeforce card would move a line like this would be unfathomable a year or 2 ago
 
modogg said:
sheerterror said:
Was going to wait closer to Saturday but I'll post this one up now, as the line is starting to go a little crazy. I don't post plays too often, but when I have one for my fellow FFA Wagering degenerates, you know it's something I really like a lot. Here's my post from the MMA Wagering thread:

Alright, here's a fight I've had my eye on for a while for several reasons. Gian Villante -240 over Chad Griggs at this Saturday's Strikeforce card. This will likely end up being one of, if not my biggest MMA bets ever.
Click to expand...
It is hard to predict line movement with some of these MMA bouts. I really thought the line would go in the other direction with Griggs "name value" (i put it in quotes because i can not imagine griggs has much name value at all). My only guess is that all of the money has come in on Gian, and that is why the line has moved so significantly. To think that a guy coming in for his first fight on a Strikeforce card would move a line like this would be unfathomable a year or 2 ago
Click to expand...
I think a big part of it is that all of Gian's fights are readily accessibile online, he's gotten a decent amount of hype in the past few months at Sherdog, Bloody Elbow etc., has that dual championship thing going for him in a relatively known regional promotion, and most importantly, he looks the part. People know Griggs for "surviving" Bobby Lashley, I guess they've also seen right through it.Apparently Griggs mentioned in an interview that he wants to stand and bang with Villante. This fight might end sooner than I had originally anticipated.

 
sheerterror said:
modogg said:
sheerterror said:
Was going to wait closer to Saturday but I'll post this one up now, as the line is starting to go a little crazy. I don't post plays too often, but when I have one for my fellow FFA Wagering degenerates, you know it's something I really like a lot. Here's my post from the MMA Wagering thread:

Alright, here's a fight I've had my eye on for a while for several reasons. Gian Villante -240 over Chad Griggs at this Saturday's Strikeforce card. This will likely end up being one of, if not my biggest MMA bets ever.
Click to expand...
It is hard to predict line movement with some of these MMA bouts. I really thought the line would go in the other direction with Griggs "name value" (i put it in quotes because i can not imagine griggs has much name value at all). My only guess is that all of the money has come in on Gian, and that is why the line has moved so significantly. To think that a guy coming in for his first fight on a Strikeforce card would move a line like this would be unfathomable a year or 2 ago
Click to expand...
I think a big part of it is that all of Gian's fights are readily accessibile online, he's gotten a decent amount of hype in the past few months at Sherdog, Bloody Elbow etc., has that dual championship thing going for him in a relatively known regional promotion, and most importantly, he looks the part. People know Griggs for "surviving" Bobby Lashley, I guess they've also seen right through it.Apparently Griggs mentioned in an interview that he wants to stand and bang with Villante. This fight might end sooner than I had originally anticipated.
Click to expand...
i was hoping to grab some money on the fight going less then a round, but when i looked on Wednesday the line was already -170 to end in the first.
 
My hockey prop pal had to work late today so he didn't have the time to go though all his normal routine. He had his eye on playing Under Sharks Shots and Under Ducks Shots. Where the Ducks number came out at 27 he wasn't interested. The Sharks number is 32.5 and at that level he thinks it's a two star play. Yes the Sharks lead the NHL in shots, but the Devils lead the NHL in shots vs and 32.5 is a high number.

 
hooter311 said:
sheerterror said:
Trying to figure out what to make of the Overeem-Sefo line lump. You're looking at your classic kickboxer vs. MMA fighter, so you've got to believe if Overeem gets this to the ground (and he'd be foolish not to do everything in his power to try) then the fight's over. If he has trouble, or decides to stand and bang, Sefo's going to knock him out. Overeem's got the ridiculous experience advantage with 50+ fights over a near 15 year career - but they've both got a lot of combat sport mileage, are both old, and have both been out of the cage for a while. Too many variables for me to make a play - but if I had to, I'd lean Overeem.
Click to expand...
Sefo is 40 and didn't get a full camp in. If he is going to win, he better do it quick.
Click to expand...
Ray looked the part at the weigh-in. Should make it a short fight either way
 
One more hockey play: Stars/B'Hawks over 5.5 (-105)

Good value here with Chicago on the last leg of a long road trip and Turco returning to Dallas.

 
I had 3 small plays today, but didn't spend as much time needed to post them. If anyone wants them for record keeping, you can PM me.

 
Doctor Detroit said:
One more hockey play: Stars/B'Hawks over 5.5 (-105)Good value here with Chicago on the last leg of a long road trip and Turco returning to Dallas.
Click to expand...
I actually played this earlier, but since I've played 4 hockey bets in the last 10 years (all this week) I didn't want to post it.
 
The Ref said:
My hockey prop pal had to work late today so he didn't have the time to go though all his normal routine. He had his eye on playing Under Sharks Shots and Under Ducks Shots. Where the Ducks number came out at 27 he wasn't interested. The Sharks number is 32.5 and at that level he thinks it's a two star play. Yes the Sharks lead the NHL in shots, but the Devils lead the NHL in shots vs and 32.5 is a high number.
Click to expand...
I have no idea how it happened, but somehow this came in. Trust me when I say it this had no business coming in. I'll never go under against the Sharks again.
 
The Ref said:
The Ref said:
My hockey prop pal had to work late today so he didn't have the time to go though all his normal routine. He had his eye on playing Under Sharks Shots and Under Ducks Shots. Where the Ducks number came out at 27 he wasn't interested. The Sharks number is 32.5 and at that level he thinks it's a two star play. Yes the Sharks lead the NHL in shots, but the Devils lead the NHL in shots vs and 32.5 is a high number.
Click to expand...
I have no idea how it happened, but somehow this came in. Trust me when I say it this had no business coming in. I'll never go under against the Sharks again.
Click to expand...
This hit? I saw they had 23 shots with 8 minutes left in the 2nd and chalked it up as a loss.
 
Man In The Box said:
The Ref said:
The Ref said:
My hockey prop pal had to work late today so he didn't have the time to go though all his normal routine. He had his eye on playing Under Sharks Shots and Under Ducks Shots. Where the Ducks number came out at 27 he wasn't interested. The Sharks number is 32.5 and at that level he thinks it's a two star play. Yes the Sharks lead the NHL in shots, but the Devils lead the NHL in shots vs and 32.5 is a high number.
Click to expand...
I have no idea how it happened, but somehow this came in. Trust me when I say it this had no business coming in. I'll never go under against the Sharks again.
Click to expand...
This hit? I saw they had 23 shots with 8 minutes left in the 2nd and chalked it up as a loss.
Click to expand...
Like I said, I have no idea how this happened.It was also a tie game with only one shot to spare with 4 minutes left in a 1-1 game. Miracle.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
1u clemson -1.5

1u towson pk

1u ole miss +6.5

1u baylor +11

1u ecu -1.5

YTD 158-124 56% +28.95u

More to come in a little while

 
Not going to get anything from my pal today so I went out on my own. I took all these for 1.5 units.

Capitals under 30.5

Wild under 27

Habs O 32.5

Ovechkin U 5.5 S&P

 
Hockey tonight:

Preds/Avs under 5.5 (-120)

Gotta think Forsberg's return ignites the Avs a bit tonight but the Preds are an under team having played to the under eight straight times. Avs also have been under lately so I like that trend to continue tonight and the price seems right based on the past few weeks.

 
Doctor Detroit said:
Hockey tonight:Preds/Avs under 5.5 (-120)Gotta think Forsberg's return ignites the Avs a bit tonight but the Preds are an under team having played to the under eight straight times. Avs also have been under lately so I like that trend to continue tonight and the price seems right based on the past few weeks.
Click to expand...
I didn't like it enough to play under shots for either team but it was close. I took u 5.5 for .5 unit.
 
Doctor Detroit said:
Hockey tonight:Preds/Avs under 5.5 (-120)Gotta think Forsberg's return ignites the Avs a bit tonight but the Preds are an under team having played to the under eight straight times. Avs also have been under lately so I like that trend to continue tonight and the price seems right based on the past few weeks.
Click to expand...
:fishing:Count me in.
 
Turns out I was wrong and I did hear from my Hockey prop pal.

He also likes Wild Under tonight for a 1 unit bet, in additon he has Koivu for U 3.5 for a unit.

He has two two star bets tonight Carolina under 30 and Over 3 Shea Weber shots.

He also has a one star K Yandle Assist = Yes +135 (these are rare for him).

 
The Ref said:
Wild under 27
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Gonna join you on this one. Don't like the Wild under 2.5 though because some guys I know like them to win so I'll just stick with the under shots. I'm not much for player props because I generally hate looking them up. But based on what I've seen from you and your guy, I'd follow you if I actually played them. The team plays I am all about though, just need to tell my guy where to shop them. Where do you get your numbers?
 
Doctor Detroit said:
The Ref said:
Wild under 27
Click to expand...
Gonna join you on this one. Don't like the Wild under 2.5 though because some guys I know like them to win so I'll just stick with the under shots. I'm not much for player props because I generally hate looking them up. But based on what I've seen from you and your guy, I'd follow you if I actually played them. The team plays I am all about though, just need to tell my guy where to shop them. Where do you get your numbers?
Click to expand...
I get my lines from Sportsbook. It doesnt take alot to look up trends on teams shots. Kings, Devils and Blues are all really good at not leting other teams shoot. The Wild are last in the NHL in shots (I'd think about taking this game at 25.5). That means absolutely zero as it pertains to if the Wild can beat the Blues because the Wild are more efficent with shots taken.As for player props my buddy and I will generaly figure out what games we like in terms of shots and then shop player numbers. Case in point was this afternoons Caps Kings game. I liked under Caps, and with Ovechkin with a total of 5.5 the bet writes its self. See Koivu tonight.
 
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