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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (7 Viewers)

'shake zula said:
'derek245583 said:
'shake zula said:
'The Ref said:
'derek245583 said:
'John Bender said:
Also, if timchochang win's that Bowl Pick Em contest, someone remind me to kill myself.
Click to expand...
Dont worry, I am running the thing...thread will be deleted before he wins.
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A Wis Cover and a Ok St win would put Shake and I in a tie for first.SOMEONE in here has to win this.
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If we run the table it'd actually be pretty cool b/c we have the same remaining picks save for the LSU/BAMA game. Derek, what's in the pot and what's the payout breakdown? I've already got some of that cheddar earmarked. Getting me a high class whore.
Click to expand...
No Payout if Wisconsin/Oregon cant get a ####### stop in the second half
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Me likey! 4 and 7, punt it #####es.
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1st Place- $10002nd Place- $4503rd Place- $250Last Place- $50
 
'Raider Nation said:
'PatsFanCT said:
'Raider Nation said:
'PatsFanCT said:
'Raider Nation said:
Just about to surpass Baylor/Washington as my favorite bowl game ever.
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Did you forget about Oklahoma / Boise St game of 2007?
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Are you telling me what my favorite game should be?
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Not at all. I just assumed you saw that game.
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Of course. Statue of Liberty... ADP... Johnson's marriage proposal.But I didn't win :BOATLOADS: on that game. ;)
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Ah, good point. That Baylor/Washington game was something to behold.
 
'Raider Nation said:
LOVE me some Russell Wilson. So GD accurate! :wub:
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He was hit or miss at NCSU, mostly because of the talent around him. He's gonna probably play pro beisbol next year but he could be a later round guy for an NFL team so he'll have to make a choice. He has the 2nd best recorded 40 time of any QB prospect (RGIII). Seneca Wallace II?
 
'derek245583 said:
'shake zula said:
'derek245583 said:
'shake zula said:
'The Ref said:
'derek245583 said:
'John Bender said:
Also, if timchochang win's that Bowl Pick Em contest, someone remind me to kill myself.
Click to expand...
Dont worry, I am running the thing...thread will be deleted before he wins.
Click to expand...
A Wis Cover and a Ok St win would put Shake and I in a tie for first.SOMEONE in here has to win this.
Click to expand...
If we run the table it'd actually be pretty cool b/c we have the same remaining picks save for the LSU/BAMA game. Derek, what's in the pot and what's the payout breakdown? I've already got some of that cheddar earmarked. Getting me a high class whore.
Click to expand...
No Payout if Wisconsin/Oregon cant get a ####### stop in the second half
Click to expand...
Me likey! 4 and 7, punt it #####es.
Click to expand...
1st Place- $10002nd Place- $4503rd Place- $250Last Place- $50
Click to expand...
Nice. Wisky at +6.5 is way better than what I got it at pre kickoff (+4). I didn't realize it opened so much higher.
 
Ok, that score has to be credited more to the 3rd quarter so we have between 17 and 19 points to get depending on what number you got. LET'S DO THIS! :popcorn:

 
Doesn't look like the field is in great condition for the OSU game tonight.

Field shows wear from Sunday NFL game: The Arizona Cardinals hosted the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, which meant there wasn’t much time to convert the field at University of Phoenix Stadium for the Fiesta Bowl. The field was painted immediately following the NFL game and there are a few patches of grass that appear chewed up.
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Don't look now but the Ok St number is up to 5. And to think i asked if this number would ever get down to 3 when it was at 3.5...

 
:wub:

Brent Musburger Drinking Game

For those "folks" about to enjoy the "dandy" Texas-Ohio State game, Brent Musburger is calling the game for ABC, "pard-ner". The good folks at the Tigernet Forums revive this well-traveled, oft-posted web gem:

The Brent Musburger Drinking Game

WARNING!

Play at your own risk. It is conceivable your whole party will be passed out with 8 mins remaining in the 1st quarter.

*Note: Partner is spelled "Pardner," because that's the way Brent says it.

Rule #1: "The Pardner" A person is picked to be the Pardner at the beginning of the game. The first time Brent says "Pardner," the Pardner has to take 1 drink, and then picks someone else to be the Pardner. The next time Brent says it, the new Pardner has to take 2 drinks, and then pick a new Pardner, and so on and so on. The Pardner must wear a special "Pardner" hat.

Rule #2: "Folks" Everyone drinks 1 when Brent says "Folks." However, if Brent says "Hold on Folks", everyone must drink once but the first person to drink has to finish their drink for not holding on.

Rule #3: "It's a foot race!". Whenever Brent says "It's a foot race" everyone has to finish their drink. The first one done becomes "That Man" and gets to punch the Pardner in the arm.

Rule #4: "There's that man again". After someone becomes "That Man," they get to give away 3 drinks to someone of their choosing the next time Brent says "That Man." That person then becomes "That Man." If Brent says "That Man" before "It's a footrace," The Pardner becomes That Man. If The Pardner becomes That Man first, he gets to punch the new That Man in the arm twice after giving away the 3 drinks. There must also be a special hat for "That Man."

Rule #5: "Dr. Pepper". Every time Brent says "Dr. Pepper" everyone has to yell out "I'M A PEPPER!" and take 2 drinks. Afterwards, each person must give out a satisfied "AAAAAAAHHHHH!", as if in a Dr. Pepper commercial. Anyone who fails to do so must drink again.

Rule #6: "Jack Arute". Whenever Brent says "Our ol' buddy Jack Arute" everyone has to say "AROOOOOOT!" Last one to do it has to do a shot. If everyone does it simultaneously, the Pardner must do a shot.

Rule #7: "In the college game". Whenever Brent says this little gem, everyone must say "Shut the **** up Brent", drink 2, and punch the Pardner in the arm.

Rule #8: Mentioning a Big 10 school during a Big 12 game. Whenever Brent does this, the first person who names the Big 10 school's mascot gets to make somebody drink for 11 seconds, since there's 11 schools in the Big 10.

Rule #9: Calling a touchdown before the player actually scores. For example, during an interception return, Brent says "It's a touchdown!" before the player actually scores. In this case, everyone must start drinking and continue to drink until the player actually does score. If by some odd event, the player does NOT score, everyone must finish their drink.

Rule #10: "Gary, my man". Whenever Brent says "Gary, my man", the Pardner gets to choose someone to be Gary. From that point on, that person must be referred to as "Gary, my man" until the game is over. "Gary, my man" gets to give away 5 drinks the rest of the game any time Brent says "Gary, my man". If someone talks to "Gary, my man" without calling him that, they have to do a shot. If there is someone playing the game actually named Gary, that person is automatically "Gary, my man".

Rule #11: "The Major". If Brent has a pet nickname for one of the players during the game, for example calling Major Applewhite "The Major", everyone must drink 5 anytime Brent uses this nickname. However, "Gary, my man" does not drink but gets to give away 5 drinks since this person already has a nickname of their own.

Rule #12: "John Saunders". The first time Brent quips with John Saunders, everyone must drink 1. The next time, everyone must drink 2, and so on and so on.

Rule #13: In the booth. Whenever there's a camera shot of Brent in the booth, the Pardner must make a toast to Brent. After the toast, everyone must drink 1.

Rule #14: "My Friend" Every Pardner gets to choose a "Friend." The friend must always get up to get the Pardner another drink (since the Pardner will be doing quite a bit of that). However, when Brent utters "My Friend" the friend gets to punch the Pardner in the arm for making him get up so much.
Click to expand...
 
'Guster said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
Well there goes the over. Oregon side looks good but that scenario is like kissing my sister.
Click to expand...
I can withstand an Oregon FG, but not the TD that is sure to come :kicksrock:
Click to expand...
I don't think there will be any FGs. Best scenario for all at the moment is a Wisky TD. For me and you, we need an Oregon OT TD and Wisky to throw a pick. In this scenario almost everyone wins something anyway.
 
'TheGooRoo said:
'nittanylion said:
Morning, (de)Gents!

Have to believe yesterday set a precedent for a profitable year for us all...

Waited too long on Penn State, missed the grab at 7.5...I'm now getting 6.5, hoping for one last shift back to 7, because I'm not comfortable playing my Lions as anything but a teaser leg...I do think, however, it's a valid point that the Penn State Defense is one of the best in the nation, and like nothing Houston has seen this season. Something else that needs to be considered: McGloin was a gunslinger with no conscience, about either his in-game performance, or that Bolden was on the sidelines, just waiting for the call to come in. Bolden has had issues this season with McGloin's presence, and didn't handle the QB shuffle well mentally. Bolden was statistically an above average QB last season, and takes the field today with no shadow looking over his shoulder, since McGloin is out. I think he's been waiting for this opportunity. He's practiced with intensity, and may be looking at this as a second chance.

However, I'm in straight on the following, 1.5u plays...

Michigan St. / Georgia UNDER 49.5

Nebraska +3...contemplating ML here as well.

Florida -3

...working on teasers involving the above now...
Click to expand...
A 1300 yd, 15 td rb is average but a qb with 1300 yd, 5 td and 7 int is above average?
Click to expand...
Sorry, I was typing quickly, trying to get that posted before Noon KickOff, that should have read 'ABOUT' average, not 'above'...and yes, a 58% Completion Percentage, 7.05 Yards/Attempt, 118.5 QB Rating was about average when evaluated against all other Division I QB's in *2010* who played a similar number of snaps, and about average when evaluated in context with the caliber of the pass defenses, based on those same factors, he faced, which is a good lead in to what I'm about to say...*Edit*: typed 2011, by mistake, should be 2010*

...GR, I have immense respect for you as a poster in this thread, and a fellow handicapper as well. Although I don't play them, I follow your player props, and know you're successful. I'm a relative newcomer here, but I'm no spring chicken when it comes to handicapping and betting, and every bit of my analysis is based on statistical indicators, a philosophy I learned from reading Scott Kellen's outstanding book 'The Unemotional Football Bettor'. (You covers.com guys might remember Scott posting under the name 'sixth sense' a few years back)...I think you're either missing, or unwilling to consider, my stance regarding Iowa's RB Coker.

As I'm sure you'd acknowledge, complete analysis of a player involves more than just looking at a stat line standing alone in a vacuum. It MUST be evaluated in context with other factors, a very important one being opponent stats. In the case of RB's, one very important factor is avg yards per carry given up by opposing defense. Factor 1: Coker averaged 4.9 Yards Per Carry over the course of the 2011 Season. Factor 2: Compared to all Division I RB's who received a similar # of carries/percentage of production for their teams, that's an 'average' yards per carry average. Factor 3, and the most important factor of all - the combined average yards per carry given up by Iowa's opponents in 2011, the defenses Coker ran on, was around 4.9 Yards Per Carry...which means Coker gained about as many yards vs those defenses as they were supposed to give up to him, statistically. He absolutely had some nice performances, but he didn't shred any opponents in relation to what they gave up to the majority of other RB's they faced. Week in, week out, every Saturday, he went out and did pretty much what he was expected to, statistically. He neither overachieved, nor underachieved. He very consistently hit what was projected in statistical analysis handicapping. You could accurately say he was 'dependable', or that 'you know what you're going to get out of him'. That's the very definition of average. Exceptional RB's consistently outperform those averages, often by a significant margin. They go out and outperform the D's they face in relation to what those D's give up to the other RB's they face across the board on average, and they do it consistently, no matter the caliber of the defense. In other words against below average rush defenses, they go off the charts, and against average rush defenses they generate above average days, and against above average defenses, they outperform the ypc average. The better the back, the wider the margin between Yards Per Carry and Average Yards Per Carry given up by the defense, at each of those 3 levels, and they do it with regularity. Coker did not do this in 2011, despite his objectively nice stat line evaluated on it's own without taking anything else into consideration. In fact, some might say he regressed from what he showed his freshman year, but of course that year, in addition to McNutt, defenses had to account for Ricky Stanzi and RB's Adam Robinson and Jewel Hampton, and WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos...but this Season he definitely was carrying more offensive responsibility on his shoulders with a lesser supporting cast. He really did a nice job filling in for Robinson when Robinson started getting banged up at the end of the 2010 Season, and a hell of a job in the Bowl Game vs Missouri after Robinson got suspended...say, what is it with Iowa RB's getting suspended for Bowl Games?

FWIW, I'm no stranger to Coker. Followed his High School career. He's from Beltsville, MD, a stone's throw from me in Rockville, and starred at DeMatha Catholic. WCAC (Washington Catholic Athletic Conference) Football a VERY big thing down here, and I have strong ties to the Head Coaches of Our Lady Of Good Counsel (Bob Milloy) and Gonzaga (Aaron Brady), and have some personal involvement with Gonzaga and Georgetown Prep athletics. We attend plenty of games, and we saw him play...I certainly read enough press clippings. We're pretty aware of every High School kid from the greater area who makes it into a big-time collegiate program, and we follow all of them as far as they go. He's a talented kid,there's no doubt. A high-school star, and a very solid college back, I don't want to take anything away from what he's achieved...BUT...I'd be willing to bet dollars to donuts, that if he continues to perform at the level he performed at this year, he'll continue to collect what OBJECTIVELY looks like a solid stat line, but when taken in context, isn't quite what it appears to be. That's the stuff pro scouts and talent evaluators look at, and his 2011 Season, evaluated in context, doesn't project him to star at the NFL level. Of course he still has a Junior and Senior Season to go, and his freshman year he certainly flashed, so anything is possible, and since he's a local product that I have some familiarity with, I'll be rooting for him!

One thing is for certain: Coker will be a hot topic on many people's watch lists in 2012. It will be fun to see where this discussion goes, and I'll look forward to it.

Again, with all due respect, statistics are statistics, and looking at them objectively vs in context leads to very different conclusions. We each have our way of looking at things that works for us, and that's fine. So is agreeing to disagree. I enjoy a good debate as much as the next guy, and I hope you give this a thoughtful read

Good Luck with your plays in 2012, and Happy New Year!

PS: I started typing this much earlier, but keep getting sidetracked.

For the record:

Stanford, +4.5, and +5...pretty big 3u.

Good Luck!!!

 
Last edited by a moderator:
'nittanylion said:
'TheGooRoo said:
'nittanylion said:
Morning, (de)Gents!

Have to believe yesterday set a precedent for a profitable year for us all...

Waited too long on Penn State, missed the grab at 7.5...I'm now getting 6.5, hoping for one last shift back to 7, because I'm not comfortable playing my Lions as anything but a teaser leg...I do think, however, it's a valid point that the Penn State Defense is one of the best in the nation, and like nothing Houston has seen this season. Something else that needs to be considered: McGloin was a gunslinger with no conscience, about either his in-game performance, or that Bolden was on the sidelines, just waiting for the call to come in. Bolden has had issues this season with McGloin's presence, and didn't handle the QB shuffle well mentally. Bolden was statistically an above average QB last season, and takes the field today with no shadow looking over his shoulder, since McGloin is out. I think he's been waiting for this opportunity. He's practiced with intensity, and may be looking at this as a second chance.

However, I'm in straight on the following, 1.5u plays...

Michigan St. / Georgia UNDER 49.5

Nebraska +3...contemplating ML here as well.

Florida -3

...working on teasers involving the above now...
Click to expand...
A 1300 yd, 15 td rb is average but a qb with 1300 yd, 5 td and 7 int is above average?
Click to expand...
Sorry, I was typing quickly, trying to get that posted before Noon KickOff, that should have read 'ABOUT' average, not 'above'...and yes, a 58% Completion Percentage, 7.05 Yards/Attempt, 118.5 QB Rating was about average when evaluated against all other Division I QB's in 2011 who played a similar number of snaps, and about average when evaluated in context with the caliber of the pass defenses, based on those same factors, he faced, which is a good lead in to what I'm about to say......GR, I have immense respect for you as a poster in this thread, and a fellow handicapper as well. Although I don't play them, I follow your player props, and know you're successful. I'm a relative newcomer here, but I'm no spring chicken when it comes to handicapping and betting, and every bit of my analysis is based on statistical indicators, a philosophy I learned from reading Scott Kellen's outstanding book 'The Unemotional Football Bettor'. (You covers.com guys might remember Scott posting under the name 'sixth sense' a few years back)...I think you're either missing, or unwilling to consider, my stance regarding Iowa's RB Coker.

As I'm sure you'd acknowledge, complete analysis of a player involves more than just looking at a stat line standing alone in a vacuum. It MUST be evaluated in context with other factors, a very important one being opponent stats. In the case of RB's, one very important factor is avg yards per carry given up by opposing defense. Factor 1: Coker averaged 4.9 Yards Per Carry over the course of the 2011 Season. Factor 2: Compared to all Division I RB's who received a similar # of carries/percentage of production for their teams, that's an 'average' yards per carry average. Factor 3, and the most important factor of all - the combined average yards per carry given up by Iowa's opponents in 2011, the defenses Coker ran on, was around 4.9 Yards Per Carry...which means Coker gained about as many yards vs those defenses as they were supposed to give up to him, statistically. He absolutely had some nice performances, but he didn't shred any opponents in relation to what they gave up to the majority of other RB's they faced. Week in, week out, every Saturday, he went out and did pretty much what he was expected to, statistically. He neither overachieved, nor underachieved. He very consistently hit what was projected in statistical analysis handicapping. You could accurately say he was 'dependable', or that 'you know what you're going to get out of him'. That's the very definition of average. Exceptional RB's consistently outperform those averages, often by a significant margin. They go out and outperform the D's they face in relation to what those D's give up to the other RB's they face across the board on average, and they do it consistently, no matter the caliber of the defense. In other words against below average rush defenses, they go off the charts, and against average rush defenses they generate above average days, and against above average defenses, they outperform the ypc average. The better the back, the wider the margin between Yards Per Carry and Average Yards Per Carry given up by the defense, at each of those 3 levels, and they do it with regularity. Coker did not do this in 2011, despite his objectively nice stat line evaluated on it's own without taking anything else into consideration. In fact, some might say he regressed from what he showed his freshman year, but of course that year, in addition to McNutt, defenses had to account for Ricky Stanzi and RB's Adam Robinson and Jewel Hampton, and WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos...but this Season he definitely was carrying more offensive responsibility on his shoulders with a lesser supporting cast. He really did a nice job filling in for Robinson when Robinson started getting banged up at the end of the 2010 Season, and a hell of a job in the Bowl Game vs Missouri after Robinson got suspended...say, what is it with Iowa RB's getting suspended for Bowl Games?

FWIW, I'm no stranger to Coker. Followed his High School career. He's from Beltsville, MD, a stone's throw from me in Rockville, and starred at DeMatha Catholic. WCAC (Washington Catholic Athletic Conference) Football a VERY big thing down here, and I have strong ties to the Head Coaches of Our Lady Of Good Counsel (Bob Milloy) and Gonzaga (Aaron Brady), and have some personal involvement with Gonzaga and Georgetown Prep athletics. We attend plenty of games, and we saw him play...I certainly read enough press clippings. We're pretty aware of every High School kid from the greater area who makes it into a big-time collegiate program, and we follow all of them as far as they go. He's a talented kid,there's no doubt. A high-school star, and a very solid college back, I don't want to take anything away from what he's achieved...BUT...I'd be willing to bet dollars to donuts, that if he continues to perform at the level he performed at this year, he'll continue to collect what OBJECTIVELY looks like a solid stat line, but when taken in context, isn't quite what it appears to be. That's the stuff pro scouts and talent evaluators look at, and his 2011 Season, evaluated in context, doesn't project him to star at the NFL level. Of course he still has a Junior and Senior Season to go, and his freshman year he certainly flashed, so anything is possible, and since he's a local product that I have some familiarity with, I'll be rooting for him!

One thing is for certain: Coker will be a hot topic on many people's watch lists in 2012. It will be fun to see where this discussion goes, and I'll look forward to it.

Again, with all due respect, statistics are statistics, and looking at them objectively vs in context leads to very different conclusions. We each have our way of looking at things that works for us, and that's fine. So is agreeing to disagree. I enjoy a good debate as much as the next guy, and I hope you give this a thoughtful read

Good Luck with your plays in 2012, and Happy New Year!

PS: I started typing this much earlier, but keep getting sidetracked.

For the record:

Stanford, +4.5, and +5...pretty big 3u.

Good Luck!!!
Click to expand...
Didn't read lol
 
So I'm rooting for a play that RN's write-up pushed me towards, with my buddies TF and Santa's little helper, against RN who is on the other side. This is like a vicious love trianglerhombus.

 
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