FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (4 Viewers)

[The Ref]

Seems weird not to have four shows on the DVR to catch up on after the game.

Game of Thrones cant get here soon enough.

I miss Gyp murdering someone for giving him incorrect change or walking on the wrong side of the street.

I want the Richard Harrow call of duty expansion pack for Christmas.

 

[gussy]

Live betting SF +24 1/2. Getting tempting yet?

 

[BRONG]

I also liked Seattle when they opened at -1, but I'm hesitant to recommend it at 2½.

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~~~▄▄██▌▌ PUSSY MOVING & STORAGE

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[gmbacm]

Live betting SF +24 1/2. Getting tempting yet?

I took some. Took it at 21.5 too though

 

[gussy]

My guess at the 2nd half lines O/U 24 1/2, SEA -3. I'll be playing under and SEA if it's close to that.

 

[tjnc09]

What are the 2H thoughts?

 

[modogg]

What are the 2H thoughts?

RB has Sea +1.5 and o/u 20. Grabbing over 20, not sure yet if i have the cajones to try SF

 

[gussy]

I played SEA at PK +110. O/U is 20. I think I'll sit that out. If it was over 21 it would be tempting. I think Pete keeps trying to score. Hags get ball to start 2nd half. I haven't seen a lot to make me think SF will slow them down. One full unit on the HAWKS at PK.

 

[tjnc09]

Agree on the over. SF is probably the right play too since it makes no sense whatsoever watching the game.

 

[tjnc09]

I played SEA at PK +110. O/U is 20. I think I'll sit that out. If it was over 21 it would be tempting. I think Pete keeps trying to score. Hags get ball to start 2nd half. I haven't seen a lot to make me think SF will slow them down. One full unit on the HAWKS at PK.

Why would you take the over at 21, but not 20?

 

[modogg]

I played SEA at PK +110. O/U is 20. I think I'll sit that out. If it was over 21 it would be tempting. I think Pete keeps trying to score. Hags get ball to start 2nd half. I haven't seen a lot to make me think SF will slow them down. One full unit on the HAWKS at PK.

Why would you take the over at 21, but not 20?

threw me off too. Gussy is either still shell-shocked from earlier games, or this is a super shark move that i can't even figure outETA: alos like Sea team total over 9.5, like it a lot

 

[tjnc09]

20 seems like too inviting of a number though. Hm

 

[Man In The Box]

Pretty sure he meant under based on his previous post of 24 1/2. Either way he's ####ed since I'm on Seattle +2.

 

[gussy]

I was looking under at 24 1/2. At 21 1/2 I probably still would have played under. Didn't want no part of the over regardless of the number in the 20's.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Going to the bar.GO...SEAHAWKS!!!!!!!

I think we can all agree the Seahawks are the bet team in the NFL.

 

[The Ref]

4th and 17 TD costs me 2 units. Mother f'er.

 

[Raider Nation]

4th and 17 TD costs me 2 units. Mother f'er.

My hated rival for 20+ years in my local league just lost his title game BECAUSE of that play.He had Seattle's defense. I swear I think I came.

 

[Raider Nation]

But, uhhh, sorry about your 2 units Joe.

 

[The Ref]

But, uhhh, sorry about your 2 units Joe.

No worries - we move on. It' was a blown middle, not an outright loss.Our league pipsqueek with one of the worst teams to ever make a SB lost on the same play. It was in fact glorious. Only problem is it gave back to back titles and 4 total in 13 years to another guy and he is going to get a big(er) head.

 

[modogg]

I haven't seen too many interviews with Luck yet, but you have to love these rookie QBs that are doing so well in the league this year. Nice to hear these guys (RGIII, Wilson, haven't heard Tanehil yet either) being so non-egocentric and humble. Has to make you happy to see these guys succeed and not leave us with some of these other knuckleheads in the league

 

[The Ref]

I'd hurt the new Wendy's girl, or I'd at least give it my best shot. Just sayin.

 

[Raider Nation]

Aiiiight... Canes/Cats on ESPN2. Who's got what here?

 

[modogg]

Aiiiight... Canes/Cats on ESPN2. Who's got what here?

i think Gussy has the Cats, and Chainsaw has the Canes...

 

[gussy]

Canes getting killed on the boards just like I figured without Reggie. This Cat's team is going to be so good when they grow up.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

I love all the pre-season and holiday season CBB tourneys

Random SUnday night CBB at midnight is freakin awesome

My favorite was always what I felt was the somewhat awkwardly named Puerto Rico Shoot Out

 

[Raider Nation]

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Ool TU

 

[gussy]

Just added Arizona -1 1/2 for the 2nd half.

 

[modogg]

Just added Arizona -1 1/2 for the 2nd half.

tailed , still wrapping some nephew's presents, so nice to have some money in play

 

[Good Posting Judge]

"Shootout" is a bit more innocuous than "Stabby Parade."

 

[Raider Nation]

Time to pop a cap in Tom Jackson. If the stuttering wasn't bad enough, he now hums like a moron whenever others are talking.

"Mmmmmmm"

"Mmmmmmm"

"Mmmmmmm"

"Mmmmmmm"

"Mmmmmmm"

:noose:

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Does anybody have any experience using Poisson distributions for handicapping props? What statistics can I apply it to across the major sports?

Bump for Pickles. From what I understand, rebounds and assists (for an individual player in one game) would work, but points would not?

 

[tjnc09]

Does anybody have any experience using Poisson distributions for handicapping props? What statistics can I apply it to across the major sports?

Bump for Pickles. From what I understand, rebounds and assists (for an individual player in one game) would work, but points would not?

I have a statistics degree but I am kind of what you are asking

 

[tjnc09]

And I've already said too nuch

 

[tjnc09]

CBB Arizona -5 1/2. Reggie Johnson is out for the U, I think Cat's cover this fairly easily.66-72-3 -11 units

Adding Colorado St. -5 1/2

Gussy, 2-0 on CBB -5.5 plays since 12/23/12Nice calls

 

[gussy]

CBB Arizona -5 1/2. Reggie Johnson is out for the U, I think Cat's cover this fairly easily.66-72-3 -11 units

Adding Colorado St. -5 1/2

Gussy, 2-0 on CBB -5.5 plays since 12/23/12Nice calls

3-0 you missed that Arizona -1 1/2 2nd half bet. Nice bounce back between the 2 Seahawks bets and the basketball bets tonight. Really needed after one of my worst basketball weeks in a long time and the ####### Cowboys doing what they always do to me.

 

[BRONG]

How 'bout those RAMS, gussy?!

 

[modogg]

CBB Arizona -5 1/2. Reggie Johnson is out for the U, I think Cat's cover this fairly easily.66-72-3 -11 units

Adding Colorado St. -5 1/2

Gussy, 2-0 on CBB -5.5 plays since 12/23/12Nice calls

3-0 you missed that Arizona -1 1/2 2nd half bet. Nice bounce back between the 2 Seahawks bets and the basketball bets tonight. Really needed after one of my worst basketball weeks in a long time and the ####### Cowboys doing what they always do to me.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

I also liked Seattle when they opened at -1, but I'm hesitant to recommend it at 2½.

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lol, well played Pasquino.

 

[tjnc09]

CBB Arizona -5 1/2. Reggie Johnson is out for the U, I think Cat's cover this fairly easily.66-72-3 -11 units

Adding Colorado St. -5 1/2

Gussy, 2-0 on CBB -5.5 plays since 12/23/12Nice calls

3-0 you missed that Arizona -1 1/2 2nd half bet. Nice bounce back between the 2 Seahawks bets and the basketball bets tonight. Really needed after one of my worst basketball weeks in a long time and the ####### Cowboys doing what they always do to me.

That one didn't fit THE GUSS MONEY BUS system

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Does anybody have any experience using Poisson distributions for handicapping props? What statistics can I apply it to across the major sports?

Bump for Pickles. From what I understand, rebounds and assists (for an individual player in one game) would work, but points would not?

I have a statistics degree but I am kind of what you are asking

OK, so I found this pretty cool Poisson/gambling calculator which cuts out all of the hard mathy stuff. ((Poisson Background here)Calculator here: http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/poisson-calculator/

Let's say there's an o/u 8.5 Greg Monroe rebounds prop. I figure that Monroe is going to get 9.6 rebounds, and the calculator gives me a 62.04% probability that Monroe will get 9 or more rebounds, which is obviously a play.

So, my assumption is that this works for rebounds, assists, soccer goals, but is probably slightly/somewhat inaccurate for NBA points.

 

[sporthenry]

Does anybody have any experience using Poisson distributions for handicapping props? What statistics can I apply it to across the major sports?

Bump for Pickles. From what I understand, rebounds and assists (for an individual player in one game) would work, but points would not?

I have a statistics degree but I am kind of what you are asking

OK, so I found this pretty cool Poisson/gambling calculator which cuts out all of the hard mathy stuff. ((Poisson Background here)Calculator here: http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/poisson-calculator/

Let's say there's an o/u 8.5 Greg Monroe rebounds prop. I figure that Monroe is going to get 9.6 rebounds, and the calculator gives me a 62.04% probability that Monroe will get 9 or more rebounds, which is obviously a play.

So, my assumption is that this works for rebounds, assists, soccer goals, but is probably slightly/somewhat inaccurate for NBA points.

Very cool but when you can find the calculator giving me the 9.6 number, than I'll be more interested.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Does anybody have any experience using Poisson distributions for handicapping props? What statistics can I apply it to across the major sports?

Bump for Pickles. From what I understand, rebounds and assists (for an individual player in one game) would work, but points would not?

I have a statistics degree but I am kind of what you are asking

OK, so I found this pretty cool Poisson/gambling calculator which cuts out all of the hard mathy stuff. ((Poisson Background here)Calculator here: http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/poisson-calculator/

Let's say there's an o/u 8.5 Greg Monroe rebounds prop. I figure that Monroe is going to get 9.6 rebounds, and the calculator gives me a 62.04% probability that Monroe will get 9 or more rebounds, which is obviously a play.

So, my assumption is that this works for rebounds, assists, soccer goals, but is probably slightly/somewhat inaccurate for NBA points.

Very cool but when you can find the calculator giving me the 9.6 number, than I'll be more interested.

That is the hard part.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

I love it when GPJ gets all nerdy and numbery.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

guru_007> Thoughts on taking Man U to advance over Real Madrid at +150?

Also thinking about Bayern -300 to advance. It seems impossible that Arsenal beats that team over 180 minutes.

 

[tjnc09]

Does anybody have any experience using Poisson distributions for handicapping props? What statistics can I apply it to across the major sports?

Bump for Pickles. From what I understand, rebounds and assists (for an individual player in one game) would work, but points would not?

I have a statistics degree but I am kind of what you are asking

OK, so I found this pretty cool Poisson/gambling calculator which cuts out all of the hard mathy stuff. ((Poisson Background here)Calculator here: http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/poisson-calculator/

Let's say there's an o/u 8.5 Greg Monroe rebounds prop. I figure that Monroe is going to get 9.6 rebounds, and the calculator gives me a 62.04% probability that Monroe will get 9 or more rebounds, which is obviously a play.

So, my assumption is that this works for rebounds, assists, soccer goals, but is probably slightly/somewhat inaccurate for NBA points.

Yeah, I know the distribution. I will take a look at that calculator

 

[optionmaven]

Time to pop a cap in Tom Jackson. If the stuttering wasn't bad enough, he now hums like a moron whenever others are talking.

"Mmmmmmm"

"Mmmmmmm"

"Mmmmmmm"

"Mmmmmmm"

"Mmmmmmm"

:noose:

Besides Lambert and Ham, Gradishar and Jackson were my favorite linebacker tandem from that era. That lasted until the Singletary, Otis Wilson, Wilbur Marshall triumvirate of the 80's.

 

[optionmaven]

Well alrighty then. Looking over some pending wagers i have.......An Otis like 10 for 3350 parlay (12 teams) with only 4 teams left. 2 of them are chalky bowl game ML's. I might be a very happy man on the 29th of December.

 

[bmj87]

Does anybody have any experience using Poisson distributions for handicapping props? What statistics can I apply it to across the major sports?

Bump for Pickles. From what I understand, rebounds and assists (for an individual player in one game) would work, but points would not?

I have a statistics degree but I am kind of what you are asking

OK, so I found this pretty cool Poisson/gambling calculator which cuts out all of the hard mathy stuff. ((Poisson Background here)Calculator here: http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/poisson-calculator/

Let's say there's an o/u 8.5 Greg Monroe rebounds prop. I figure that Monroe is going to get 9.6 rebounds, and the calculator gives me a 62.04% probability that Monroe will get 9 or more rebounds, which is obviously a play.

So, my assumption is that this works for rebounds, assists, soccer goals, but is probably slightly/somewhat inaccurate for NBA points.

Right. I forget the math words, so forgive me. But you can only use Poisson on events that occur one at a time. Because NBA points can be totaled from shots consisting of 1 point, 2 points, or 3 points, it wouldn't work. Similar problem with yards in football. Works very well with K props in baseball.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I think the BRONG system was perfect this week. Nice job!