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I'm laying the points with Fresno. I think they are a very talented team. SMU aint bad in it's own right.
Besides, don't the books have guys who are crunching these same numbers in order to set the prop line?I guess the answer is probably "not really" since GooRoo always exposes laughable lines.'bmj87 said:Right. I forget the math words, so forgive me. But you can only use Poisson on events that occur one at a time. Because NBA points can be totaled from shots consisting of 1 point, 2 points, or 3 points, it wouldn't work. Similar problem with yards in football. Works very well with K props in baseball.'Good said:OK, so I found this pretty cool Poisson/gambling calculator which cuts out all of the hard mathy stuff. ((Poisson Background here)Calculator here: http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/poisson-calculator/'tjnc09 said:I have a statistics degree but I am kind of'Good said:what you are asking
Let's say there's an o/u 8.5 Greg Monroe rebounds prop. I figure that Monroe is going to get 9.6 rebounds, and the calculator gives me a 62.04% probability that Monroe will get 9 or more rebounds, which is obviously a play.
So, my assumption is that this works for rebounds, assists, soccer goals, but is probably slightly/somewhat inaccurate for NBA points.
June Jones brought SMU into this game two years ago and blew up what I thought was an easy win with Nevada -13. But I think this Fresno team is better than that Nevada team and this SMU team is meh. The total and side go together, if you like SMU you might consider the over.
I think the good Doctor has this spot on. Carr with an incredible 36/5 td to intercept rate. Smu's defensive weakness is against the pass. Both teams about the same rushing the ball, averaging about 4.5 a carry and giving up 4 yards a carry defensively. SMU was 5-3 in a very down yr for CUSA, however they beat tulsa while Fresno lost to them as the only common opponent. Quality wins about equal, maybe slight edge to Fresno with victories over 3 teams that made bowl games. Lastly, Fresno is ranked 12 in the nation in passing and total pts. scored, and 28th in the nation defensively points scored. They are efficient. One thing I don't like about this bowl season so far, its been all chalk victories and covers.
Looks to me that the books usually roll the with the player average with perhaps a little tweaking for matchup. The advantages are when they don't account enough for matchups or lineup/philosophy changes by teams.Besides, don't the books have guys who are crunching these same numbers in order to set the prop line?I guess the answer is probably "not really" since GooRoo always exposes laughable lines.'bmj87 said:Right. I forget the math words, so forgive me. But you can only use Poisson on events that occur one at a time. Because NBA points can be totaled from shots consisting of 1 point, 2 points, or 3 points, it wouldn't work. Similar problem with yards in football. Works very well with K props in baseball.'Good said:OK, so I found this pretty cool Poisson/gambling calculator which cuts out all of the hard mathy stuff. ((Poisson Background here)Calculator here: http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/poisson-calculator/'tjnc09 said:I have a statistics degree but I am kind of'Good said:
Let's say there's an o/u 8.5 Greg Monroe rebounds prop. I figure that Monroe is going to get 9.6 rebounds, and the calculator gives me a 62.04% probability that Monroe will get 9 or more rebounds, which is obviously a play.
So, my assumption is that this works for rebounds, assists, soccer goals, but is probably slightly/somewhat inaccurate for NBA points.
Agree, and again, CUSA was definetly weak to have those kind of numbers for smu. The butt pirates of E.Carolina didn't look all that impressive the other night. I expect another average team (6-6)in weak conference to lose to a good team (9-3)in an average conference. Another thing about Smu's upset of tulsa, it was a huge look ahead to UCF game the weak after. Game was inconsequential, I remember betting on it and losing and being pssst that they layed down.
Carr and Rouse are two very good Sr. College football players. This is a lets not go crazy type game, but it's the only thing on TV so I'm rolling with the Favorite.Is this anything like the adult chocolate milk? Picked some of that up b/c I couldn't find chocovine. Figured, I'd class it up a bit on the Eve.
I'm trusting the good DR and taking the vegas side. Hopefully Fresno demoralizes them early when they don't have any success running. 42-14.
Wait, this year's Fresno State is better than Kaepernick's Nevada team two years ago? Not that it matters all that much, but no way. Nevada was a top 10 team at the end of that year, imo.Re-reading it, your first sentence confuses me as well, gb. I can't tell but are you saying SMU took out a heavily favored Nevada two years ago in this game (they didn't play)?
Yeah, three years ago I got them confused because all these Hawaii Bowls run together. That Nevada team looking back was ok, but not great.
Nice! Chocovine is a screw cap. The adult chocolate milk bottle looks a little classier and has a higher alcohol percentage.
1u teaser: Fresno -6.5/u67.51u parlay: Fresno -12.5/u61.51u total u61.51u Fresno -12.50.5u Fresno -12following thread consensus.Fresno State -13Under 63.52-team teaser (ties win) Fresno St -7/Under 69a little under a unit on the side. a little more than a unit on the teaser.
Who?Waiting for a certain poster to show up now
Who?Waiting for a certain poster to show up now
He threw one of the most incredible passes you will ever see. It always plays on those NFL Follies shows. He drops back to pass, gets hit in the face and knocked down by his own player by mistake - breaking his nose in the process. He calmly gets up and delivers a STRIKE 50 yards down field for a TD. Beautiful spiral.Unfortunately, that was the highlight of his career.Hey, is that former Colorado State great and Seahawks 1st round pick Kelly Stouffer who beat out Mark McGwire's brother Dan then never won a game in the booth there he is!
Holy crap, nice! Never seen that before. I guess he got injured and never regained the job or some ####.You are older than I thought? Yeah, a question.
Most likely.Holy crap, nice! Never seen that before. I guess he got injured and never regained the job or some ####.You are older than I thought? Yeah, a question.
