FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (11 Viewers)

[Quint]

not to sound like a sad sack, but i got my ### handed to me all over the place today. worst week[end] of the year by far.

drinking hasn't made it better. better to watch the Survivor finale, or hope that CIN can climb back in this thing?

 

[swirvenirvin]

How are all of you happy?? With some of these results today, I figured the bookies would be the cheerful ones!

in two FF championships thanks to Charles!

 

[swirvenirvin]

So I think Lacy survived and equaled what Allen did for the most part. Maybe Rodgers comes back still

 

[mquinnjr]

Got cincy -1.5

oh boy

 

[mquinnjr]

First incomplete pass of the night...with 10 mins left in 2Q.

Sometimes you eat the bear, and sometimes, the bear eats you.

 

[TheGooRoo]

So I think Lacy survived and equaled what Allen did for the most part. Maybe Rodgers comes back still

21-141-1 and 4-30 > 2-29-2. Gotta feel good about facing Chicago in week 17 as well. Need it Fat Eddie.

 

[mquinnjr]

Bengals -6.5 -120 2H for 1U

Starting with the ball, I feel like some 2H adjustments in their favor and they make a game of this. Clean up DST and they're in this thing.

 

[Quint]

Over 23 2H (+105)

i'm 0-7 today, fade accordingly.

 

[NIU Kicker]

So I think Lacy survived and equaled what Allen did for the most part. Maybe Rodgers comes back still

21-141-1 and 4-30 > 2-29-2. Gotta feel good about facing Chicago in week 17 as well. Need it Fat Eddie.

Completely agree here... And to anyone paying attention Allen (who I like from his Cal days) looked lost several times on thurs night.

IMHO Lacy is the OROTY right now and it's not close.

 

[NIU Kicker]

How are all of you happy?? With some of these results today, I figured the bookies would be the cheerful ones!

Easy. Didn't bet today.

Happy!

A weekend where a Disney trip saved me $$.... I would have got my ### handed to me.

Nice job on the navy under yeasterday.

 

[swirvenirvin]

So I think Lacy survived and equaled what Allen did for the most part. Maybe Rodgers comes back still

21-141-1 and 4-30 > 2-29-2. Gotta feel good about facing Chicago in week 17 as well. Need it Fat Eddie.

Completely agree here... And to anyone paying attention Allen (who I like from his Cal days) looked lost several times on thurs night.

IMHO Lacy is the OROTY right now and it's not close.

If lacy didnt explode in the 2nd half I think Allen took the lead there. Was worried Packers were going to get blown out ala vs Detroit and Lacy wasnt going to do much

 

[swirvenirvin]

So I think Lacy survived and equaled what Allen did for the most part. Maybe Rodgers comes back still

21-141-1 and 4-30 > 2-29-2. Gotta feel good about facing Chicago in week 17 as well. Need it Fat Eddie.

Yep, need him one more week for fantasy as well

 

[Doctor Detroit]

So last year my autoplays for the bowl games went 5-2. This year I have come up with three sides that I will be playing at 2u each. Basically I ran all the games through a formula with several variables I used to predict the side. Once I figured the side I went back and looked at the Vegas line. Once I did that I figured out the mean number and then the variance to come up with a point total standard deviation. From there I found anything behind 3.5 points either way was an outlier, and bet those accordingly.

Georgia Tech +3 v Ole MIss AUTOPLAY

Cincinnati +3 v UNC AUTOPLAY

Michigan State +4.5 v Stanford AUTOPLAY

These three games are all borderline but I would consider these strong leans, not autoplays. If any of them move in my favor I would not hesitate to play them, but for one reason or the other, I am holding putting money out on them for now.

Arizona -7.5 v BC

Oregon -12.5 v Texas

Rice +7 v Miss State

So I applied the same formula to totals. Of the 34 posted games I was within 2.5 points in 25 of 34 bowls. Of the nine games remaining I identified four outliers which I determined was 5 points or more.

MTSU/NAVY OVER 54.5 AUTOPLAY

Texas A&M/Duke UNDER 74 AUTOPLAY

LSU/IOWA UNDER 49 AUTOPLAY

Mizzou/Oklahoma St OVER 61 AUTOPLAY

These are three more I'd consider leans, but fell short of autoplay.

Cincinnati/UNC UNDER 56.5

Vandy/Houston UNDER 53.5

Arizona State/Techa Tech UNDER 70

With all the other games if there are FFAWT guys that have plays that match my numbers, I'll probably go with those. Maybe use a more balanced approach this year.

 

[NIU Kicker]

So last year my autoplays for the bowl games went 5-2. This year I have come up with three sides that I will be playing at 2u each. Basically I ran all the games through a formula with several variables I used to predict the side. Once I figured the side I went back and looked at the Vegas line. Once I did that I figured out the mean number and then the variance to come up with a point total standard deviation. From there I found anything behind 3.5 points either way was an outlier, and bet those accordingly.

Georgia Tech +3 v Ole MIss AUTOPLAY

Cincinnati +3 v UNC AUTOPLAY

Michigan State +4.5 v Stanford AUTOPLAY

These three games are all borderline but I would consider these strong leans, not autoplays. If any of them move in my favor I would not hesitate to play them, but for one reason or the other, I am holding putting money out on them for now.

Arizona -7.5 v BC

Oregon -12.5 v Texas

Rice +7 v Miss State

So I applied the same formula to totals. Of the 34 posted games I was within 2.5 points in 25 of 34 bowls. Of the nine games remaining I identified four outliers which I determined was 5 points or more.

MTSU/NAVY OVER 54.5

Texas A&M/Duke UNDER 74

LSU/IOWA UNDER 49

Mizzou/Oklahoma St OVER 61

These are three more I'd consider leans, but fell short of autoplay.

Cincinnati/UNC UNDER 56.5

Vandy/Houston UNDER 53.5

Arizona State/Techa Tech UNDER 70

With all the other games if there are FFAWT guys that have plays that match my numbers, I'll probably go with those. Maybe use a more balanced approach this year.

I look at these 7 and I agree with all if them.

I don't know if that's good or bad, biiwii.

 

[lumpy19]

Can't believe how empty Heinz is....so many empty seats

 

[swirvenirvin]

Can't believe how empty Heinz is....so many empty seats

I noticed this a few years ago, and posted somewhere and got yelled at by the Steelers fans saying they were all in the tunnel. But I continually see this every time they play

 

[Tiger Fan]

Nice job swirvin. Tailed you wherever I could. Made up a little bit for getting raped with no lube by the casino last night

 

[Raider Nation]

Would you rather be Team A or Team B?

QBs: 1 point per 25 yards .... 4 points for TD passes.

RBs/WRs: 1/10 and 6.

==================

TEAM A has:

Matthew Stafford and a 21-point lead.

TEAM B has:

J. Bell, Burleson and Pitta (and is obviously down by 21.)

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Would you rather be Team A or Team B?

QBs: 1 point per 25 yards .... 4 points for TD passes.

RBs/WRs: 1/10 and 6.

==================

TEAM A has:

Matthew Stafford and a 21-point lead.

TEAM B has:

J. Bell, Burleson and Pitta (and is obviously down by 21.)

Team A

 

[Raider Nation]

 

[mquinnjr]

Would you rather be Team A or Team B?

QBs: 1 point per 25 yards .... 4 points for TD passes.

RBs/WRs: 1/10 and 6.

==================

TEAM A has:

Matthew Stafford and a 21-point lead.

TEAM B has:

J. Bell, Burleson and Pitta (and is obviously down by 21.)

Team A

Team A

You have a 21 point lead, and offset most of the Burleson/Bell receiving production. Pitta has a solid floor as the now primary check down for Flacco, but that's offset against Stafford/Megatron production.

 

[Raider Nation]

Thanks fellas. This is the guy I told you about last week who lost Welker and Gronk and Peterson and Gerhart, and he STILL won't go away. Foles and Charles alone hung almost a hundy on me.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

The coolest thing about meeting Bender and mquinnjr for the Army/Navy game yesterday, was the uncanny resemblance they have to their avatars.

 

[Raider Nation]

GB the Seattle defense is all I can say. This is the reason I took them "too high" in every league.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

GB the Seattle defense is all I can say. This is the reason I took them "too high" in every league.

I played against them today. I played the Manning owner but Matt Ryan, Jimmy Graham and Shane Vereen combined for 15 total points so I'm out.

Would have easily won had Ryan got 20 points and Vereen and Graham just got their weekly average.

 

[mquinnjr]

The coolest thing about meeting Bender and mquinnjr for the Army/Navy game yesterday, was the uncanny resemblance they have to their avatars.

Totally uncanny!

Army/Navy was a great time yesterday. My playoff fantasy team got pounded with the same voracity that my head did with a hangover today. At least today was a break-even less juice wager wise. Good FFAWT :cornhole: in Philly yesterday, got to do it again at some point.

 

[mquinnjr]

GB the Seattle defense is all I can say. This is the reason I took them "too high" in every league.

I played against them today. I played the Manning owner but Matt Ryan, Jimmy Graham and Shane Vereen combined for 15 total points so I'm out.

Would have easily won had Ryan got 20 points and Vereen and Graham just got their weekly average.

I love having a team where Dre, Cameron, and Demaryius were all outscored by Hauschka. PPR with bonuses.

I faced Foles, Edelman, AJ Green, CK?K, Jamaal, Olsen, Bernard, Bailey. My team was 11-2, averaging highest points per week by a country mile. This team I faced squeaked into the playoffs with a losing record.

I'm afraid of how big of a week next weekend will be in here for me to take my mind off of not having advanced.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

So last year my autoplays for the bowl games went 5-2. This year I have come up with three sides that I will be playing at 2u each. Basically I ran all the games through a formula with several variables I used to predict the side. Once I figured the side I went back and looked at the Vegas line. Once I did that I figured out the mean number and then the variance to come up with a point total standard deviation. From there I found anything behind 3.5 points either way was an outlier, and bet those accordingly.

Georgia Tech +3 v Ole MIss AUTOPLAY

Cincinnati +3 v UNC AUTOPLAY

Michigan State +4.5 v Stanford AUTOPLAY

These three games are all borderline but I would consider these strong leans, not autoplays. If any of them move in my favor I would not hesitate to play them, but for one reason or the other, I am holding putting money out on them for now.

Arizona -7.5 v BC

Oregon -12.5 v Texas

Rice +7 v Miss State

So I applied the same formula to totals. Of the 34 posted games I was within 2.5 points in 25 of 34 bowls. Of the nine games remaining I identified four outliers which I determined was 5 points or more.

MTSU/NAVY OVER 54.5 AUTOPLAY

Texas A&M/Duke UNDER 74 AUTOPLAY

LSU/IOWA UNDER 49 AUTOPLAY

Mizzou/Oklahoma St OVER 61 AUTOPLAY

These are three more I'd consider leans, but fell short of autoplay.

Cincinnati/UNC UNDER 56.5

Vandy/Houston UNDER 53.5

Arizona State/Techa Tech UNDER 70

With all the other games if there are FFAWT guys that have plays that match my numbers, I'll probably go with those. Maybe use a more balanced approach this year.

Quick glance I like the Navy and Mizzou Overs. A&M under intrigues me too...the rest I need to dig a bit deeper on

Also plays I'm on already

WSU/CSU Over

Beef O Brady O61.5

OSU/Clemson O68

Auburn/FSU O67 (

 

[optionmaven]

The one (over/under bowl games) that really sticks out to me is the NIU/Utah st. over 58. NIU doesn't play defense. Utah St. offense blows without Chuckie, but NIU can make any team look like offensive juggernauts. Other overs I like: CSU/WASH St. over 65. USC/FRESNO St. over 62. Beef o Brady over 61.5.

 

[NIU Kicker]

The one (over/under bowl games) that really sticks out to me is the NIU/Utah st. over 58. NIU doesn't play defense. Utah St. offense blows without Chuckie, but NIU can make any team look like offensive juggernauts. Other overs I like: CSU/WASH St. over 65. USC/FRESNO St. over 62. Beef o Brady over 61.5.

Forgive me for being skeptical, but we have some emotional scars around here from betting NIU overs in bowl games.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Worst way to get burnt on bowl games IMO is playing all the overs. That said, count me in on the WAZZU/Colorado State OVER once I get a good weather report for Saturday. That's the thing too, I'll play an under at open but I won't play all the overs I like until I see the weather (unless they are playing in controlled conditions like a dome or SoCal).

I have OSU/Clemson at 66 by the numbers, but Ohio State can't stop anyone and no way is Clemson going to stop that rushing attack (especially in the second half). I'll play that one later.

 

[lumpy19]

Man, that bonus talk sure is tempting me. How do you typically deposit at SB?

I use my visa card

I signed up last night and deposited 2x to get signup ($50) and reload ($500) bonuses. Finished clearing both at +$770. Now to get verified so I can initiate a wire and hopefully rinse and repeat. Man, even after nearly 7 years, it felt like riding a bicycle. Thanks for continuing to post about this bonus, lumpy.

CASRELOAD15 now active, go get it

 

[swirvenirvin]

The one (over/under bowl games) that really sticks out to me is the NIU/Utah st. over 58. NIU doesn't play defense. Utah St. offense blows without Chuckie, but NIU can make any team look like offensive juggernauts. Other overs I like: CSU/WASH St. over 65. USC/FRESNO St. over 62. Beef o Brady over 61.5.

Only problem I see in this is that Fresno looked like maybe the worst defense in football against San Jose St, giving up 450 yards passing in the first half and then bascially shut down Utah St the next week

 

[swirvenirvin]

3rd week in a row taking Burleson over. Lost them both, but he went against 2 decent slot CB's and had the snow game where Stafford couldnt do anything right. Either I am a stubborn SOB or this line is off

*1.6 Burleson over 3 rec

 

[optionmaven]

The one (over/under bowl games) that really sticks out to me is the NIU/Utah st. over 58. NIU doesn't play defense. Utah St. offense blows without Chuckie, but NIU can make any team look like offensive juggernauts. Other overs I like: CSU/WASH St. over 65. USC/FRESNO St. over 62. Beef o Brady over 61.5.

Forgive me for being skeptical, but we have some emotional scars around here from betting NIU overs in bowl games.

I think we were going against much larger numbers last yr. This is more reasonable and NIU D is much worse than last yr. All Utah St. has to do is pound the rock, pound the rock, pound the rock. Missed tackles and big plays happen against the Huskie sieve 11. Lynch will get his share. Thought 63-65 would be the number.

 

[ChainsawU]

NCAA Bowl Games last five years:

O/U: 77-94-2 (-2.83, 45.0%) avg total: 55.6

 

[regularguy]

CASRELOAD15 now active, go get it

Will do tonight. I'm being told that I don't have the option of withdrawing via wire though (maybe because I'm a new customer?) so I guess I'm going to have to do a check request after clearing this one. I'm afraid that will take weeks to clear causing me to miss a few of these.

 

[lumpy19]

CASRELOAD15 now active, go get it

Will do tonight. I'm being told that I don't have the option of withdrawing via wire though (maybe because I'm a new customer?) so I guess I'm going to have to do a check request after clearing this one. I'm afraid that will take weeks to clear causing me to miss a few of these.

It doesn't, my last 2 checks were both received within 10 business days. Might be tough now because of xmas/new years though

 

[Frostillicus]

Illinois State +5

Cleveland State -9.5

 

[Angry Beavers]

Illinois State +5

Cleveland State -9.5

:tail:

 

[swirvenirvin]

burelson high juiced at 3 and up to 4.5 on sb

 

[swirvenirvin]

*.9 Ray Rice under 54.5

 

[lumpy19]

burelson high juiced at 3 and up to 4.5 on sb

I played o3 -115 at BOL and u4.5 -145 at sb, much smaller on the u4.5

Go burleson

 

[Good Posting Judge]

I am gambling on Manchester City to advance from their tie with Barcelona in the knockout round of the Champions League. I am also a Barcelona supporter.

+180 at Bovada.

 

[jamil]

Illinois State +5

Cleveland State -9.5

:tail:

In

 

[swirvenirvin]

*.9 Pettigrew under 3 -105

 

[LOCO]

ravens down to +4.5. hmmmm

 

[Doctor Detroit]

ravens down to +4.5. hmmmm

Yeah I was gonna shoot for a middle here because I'm holding four Lions teasers, now I probably won't.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

NCAA Bowl Games last five years:

O/U: 77-94-2 (-2.83, 45.0%) avg total: 55.6

Interesting stats. Defenses have more time to scope out the other team?

 

[The Ref]

OK so if I crack open a new thread and run a $50 bowl pickem can I safely assume I'd get some participation from you guys?