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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (3 Viewers)

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TheGooRoo said:
Dan Lambskin said:
Dan Lambskin, on 10 Jul 2014 - 2:32 PM, said:
Eminence said:
Eminence, on 10 Jul 2014 - 1:04 PM, said:Betting against the clubs is the surest thing going on in the MLB right now. About to drop their 5th straight.
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Everyone live bet the Cubs...stat!
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He said clubs, not cubs!!! Bet against all teams that have lost 4 straight (Atl, Milw, tex). FWIW, Cubs have lost 6 straight before today.
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He had a typo. Follow him on Twitter. Or, he is a really poor speaker/typist.

 
Guthrie gave up 6 runs on 11 hits in 4.0 IP last time out. The database says that he is 5-15 SU (2-10 SU home) when he failed to complete five innings in his previous start. The average line in those games was +125 overall and -109 at home. He is also 1-9 SU (1-7 SU home) when he gave up more than 10 hits in his previous start. So it looks like he doesn't bounce back very well from a bad outing.

And then you have the whole Tiger offense that you are backing as well, which doesn't hurt. You can see their numbers in this guy's Sabermetric projection, along with what the Royals do also. You can see that the Royals own the worst ISO in baseball (.113), the worst walk rate (6.3 percent), and according to Daily Notes, the worst hard-hit average (.131); although their wOBA has been good as of late. But dude still lists the Tigers as the slight favorite, which I like.

I am chalking up Smyly's recent numbers as the reason for the line. But he has a little trend going of lose two/win one which we are catching today. And then the Tigers are like 63% SU after Cabrera gets a day off, I think that is 12-7 SU (8-3 SU away) if my calculations are correct. That's all I got, but my main deal is fading Guthrie off a bad outing - and the number he is lined at today kind of parallels what the trend says. Cheers fellas.

Tigers +100

 
David Phelps over 4 k's -130 Winner

Freeman over 1.5 -145 Winner

D. Murphy over 1.5 -145 Loser

Smyly over 4k's -105Loser

Smyly over Guthrie -130 Push

 
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Hey if you guys want to quit mushing plays for a minute, I have been wanting to recommend this for a while now. It's from the Crab Feast Podcast - but it's this dude, Brandt Tobler. He has a couple Vegas stories that were kind of Cornsilks-esque that reminded me of you guys. He also tells this story about stealing from Mike Vanderjagt. It's like an hour long deal of him telling stories about Vanderjagt, Mike Tyson’s mansion, roulette balls, and Peaches the porn star. Anyway, the Vegas "mush" stories were the ones I thought you guys would like. Cheers brohans.

 
I went u7.5 in StL because of 4th game of the series under trends for StL. also didn't realize until today they are 28th in the MLB in runs scored.

 
If you are a blackjack player, pretty entertaining documentary here called "Holy Rollers".

The Church Team was a card counting blackjack team that operated from 2005 to 2011. It was started and managed by Ben Crawford and Colin Jones. Over the years the team included approximately 30 investors, 40 players, and various levels of managers and trainers. The team was primarily based out of the Seattle area but had almost 15 players from the Cincinnati area as well as players from California, NY, Oregon, Nevada. The team, at its highest point, was playing with $1.2 million of investors money and in the course of the 6 years won more than $3 million from casinos. The team would come together and meet quarterly in the Seattle area to discuss goals, business model changes, introduce new players, and test out old players.
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Raider Nation said:
If you are a blackjack player, pretty entertaining documentary here called "Holy Rollers".

The Church Team was a card counting blackjack team that operated from 2005 to 2011. It was started and managed by Ben Crawford and Colin Jones. Over the years the team included approximately 30 investors, 40 players, and various levels of managers and trainers. The team was primarily based out of the Seattle area but had almost 15 players from the Cincinnati area as well as players from California, NY, Oregon, Nevada. The team, at its highest point, was playing with $1.2 million of investors money and in the course of the 6 years won more than $3 million from casinos. The team would come together and meet quarterly in the Seattle area to discuss goals, business model changes, introduce new players, and test out old players.
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:unsure:

Oh boy

 
derek245583 said:
Raider Nation said:
If you are a blackjack player, pretty entertaining documentary here called "Holy Rollers".

The Church Team was a card counting blackjack team that operated from 2005 to 2011. It was started and managed by Ben Crawford and Colin Jones. Over the years the team included approximately 30 investors, 40 players, and various levels of managers and trainers. The team was primarily based out of the Seattle area but had almost 15 players from the Cincinnati area as well as players from California, NY, Oregon, Nevada. The team, at its highest point, was playing with $1.2 million of investors money and in the course of the 6 years won more than $3 million from casinos. The team would come together and meet quarterly in the Seattle area to discuss goals, business model changes, introduce new players, and test out old players.
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:unsure:

Oh boy
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?

 
Raider Nation said:
derek245583 said:
Raider Nation said:
If you are a blackjack player, pretty entertaining documentary here called "Holy Rollers".

The Church Team was a card counting blackjack team that operated from 2005 to 2011. It was started and managed by Ben Crawford and Colin Jones. Over the years the team included approximately 30 investors, 40 players, and various levels of managers and trainers. The team was primarily based out of the Seattle area but had almost 15 players from the Cincinnati area as well as players from California, NY, Oregon, Nevada. The team, at its highest point, was playing with $1.2 million of investors money and in the course of the 6 years won more than $3 million from casinos. The team would come together and meet quarterly in the Seattle area to discuss goals, business model changes, introduce new players, and test out old players.
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:unsure:

Oh boy
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?
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About 5 or 6 guys I used to deal cards with got caught up in CC and got into some trouble. They weren't exactly Christian so I doubt they knew these guys but I am going to give it a watch to see if I know someone.

 
Millions of peeps card-count, homey. These guys just did it better than most.

Lots of good books if you want to get started. Just make sure wherever you're playing don't have continuous shuffle machine.

Automatic shufflers are fine if you are counting. The CSMs are not.

 
Raider Nation said:
Millions of peeps card-count, homey. These guys just did it better than most.

Lots of good books if you want to get started. Just make sure wherever you're playing don't have continuous shuffle machine.

Automatic shufflers are fine if you are counting. The CSMs are not.
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I don't understand what good counting cards is. Most of the time you won't have more than 4 or 5 or 6 cards in your hand at once and that's if they're all small numbered cards. Who can't count to 6? Dressing up like a priest is cool tho.

 
got_nugs said:
Raider Nation said:
Millions of peeps card-count, homey. These guys just did it better than most.

Lots of good books if you want to get started. Just make sure wherever you're playing don't have continuous shuffle machine.

Automatic shufflers are fine if you are counting. The CSMs are not.
Click to expand...
I don't understand what good counting cards is. Most of the time you won't have more than 4 or 5 or 6 cards in your hand at once and that's if they're all small numbered cards. Who can't count to 6? Dressing up like a priest is cool tho.
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An error occurredYou have reached your quota of positive votes for the day
 
got_nugs said:
Raider Nation said:
Millions of peeps card-count, homey. These guys just did it better than most.

Lots of good books if you want to get started. Just make sure wherever you're playing don't have continuous shuffle machine.

Automatic shufflers are fine if you are counting. The CSMs are not.
Click to expand...
I don't understand what good counting cards is. Most of the time you won't have more than 4 or 5 or 6 cards in your hand at once and that's if they're all small numbered cards. Who can't count to 6? Dressing up like a priest is cool tho.
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These youngsters with their newfangled systems....

 
The under was 13-4-1 since last season when the Cards were trying to sweep a series at home. But the Cards were only 7-11 SU in those games (0-3 SU trying to close out a four-game series with 2 ±0 runs scored in each of those three). Pirates had been strong in the fourth game of a road series: 10-7 SU and 12-4-1 to the over in G4 away since 2011. My bad on that total. Cards are who I thought they were, and the Pirates M.O. was staring me right in the face. It always makes sense after.

 
Raider Nation said:
If you are a blackjack player, pretty entertaining documentary here called "Holy Rollers".

The Church Team was a card counting blackjack team that operated from 2005 to 2011. It was started and managed by Ben Crawford and Colin Jones. Over the years the team included approximately 30 investors, 40 players, and various levels of managers and trainers. The team was primarily based out of the Seattle area but had almost 15 players from the Cincinnati area as well as players from California, NY, Oregon, Nevada. The team, at its highest point, was playing with $1.2 million of investors money and in the course of the 6 years won more than $3 million from casinos. The team would come together and meet quarterly in the Seattle area to discuss goals, business model changes, introduce new players, and test out old players.
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made it about 15 min in but the site it's on keeps crashing.

 
The Ref said:
Raider Nation said:
If you are a blackjack player, pretty entertaining documentary here called "Holy Rollers".

The Church Team was a card counting blackjack team that operated from 2005 to 2011. It was started and managed by Ben Crawford and Colin Jones. Over the years the team included approximately 30 investors, 40 players, and various levels of managers and trainers. The team was primarily based out of the Seattle area but had almost 15 players from the Cincinnati area as well as players from California, NY, Oregon, Nevada. The team, at its highest point, was playing with $1.2 million of investors money and in the course of the 6 years won more than $3 million from casinos. The team would come together and meet quarterly in the Seattle area to discuss goals, business model changes, introduce new players, and test out old players.
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made it about 15 min in but the site it's on keeps crashing.
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Your computer may have an issue with MovShare. Try one of the other hosts: http://www.filmikz.ch/watch/16521/Holy-Rollers--The-True-Story-of-Card-Counting-Christians--2011---fkz.php

 
I dug the Jesu Card Counters movie, btw. Think it's on Netflix.

The rough part of card counting is that you really need a big BR to make it work. No sense doing it if you're throwing around chump change.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
I dug the Jesu Card Counters movie, btw. Think it's on Netflix.

The rough part of card counting is that you really need a big BR to make it work. No sense doing it if you're throwing around chump change.
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Keeping an accurate count is more of a challenge to me than the money aspect of it. My attention span sucks. Hiding the "bet spread" from the floor people is the biggest hurdle. You're betting $10... $10... $10..., then all of a sudden when the count is really in your favor, you're betting 20x that. Not easy to stay under the radar.

 
Since Aug 02, 2011 the Diamondbacks are 5-0 SU in SF against Lincecum against an average line of 132. They scored an average of 6.2 ±1.3 runs per game in those five games. Lincecum owns a 1-7 record, 7.26 ERA, and 1.67 WHIP over his past 10 starts (home and away) against the D-Backs.

At first glance, the D-Backs are 1-7 SU in Bolsinger's eight starts this season. But he did hold the Giants to one run in 7.2 IP (89 pitches) at Chase Field on June 22. Angel Pagan wasn't in the lineup that day, either.

The D-Backs had a day off yesterday. After a day off, they are 5-3 SU as the road underdog this season (avg line 141). The O/U in those games was 1-7-0 (0-7-0 L7). D-Backs' bullpen runs alowed in those eight games: 2,1,0,0,0,1,0,1. So you have Lincecum's propensity to give up runs to the D-Backs, Bolsinger's success versus the Giants (even though it's just one game), and the bullpen doing good work after a day off for the team. Action junkie nightcap.

Diamondbacks +142

 
ChainsawU said:
Since Aug 02, 2011 the Diamondbacks are 5-0 SU in SF against Lincecum against an average line of 132.
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Goldschmidt homered in every single one of those games at AT&T:

Code: 
name = Paul Goldschmidt and o:starter = Tim Lincecumdate	location     name	      position	AB H AVG 2B 3B HR LOB RBI R K BB20110802 ATT Park    Paul Goldschmidt 1B 	3  1 286 0  0  1  1   2   1 1 120110903 ATT Park    Paul Goldschmidt 1B 	4  2 258 0  0  1  0   2   2 2 120110925 Chase Field Paul Goldschmidt 1B 	4  2 260 1  0  0  3   0   1 1 020120406 Chase Field Paul Goldschmidt 1B 	3  1 333 0  0  1  3   1   2 1 120120530 ATT Park    Paul Goldschmidt 1B 	3  2 266 0  0  1  1   2   1 0 120120925 ATT Park    Paul Goldschmidt 1B 	2  1 288 0  0  1  0   5   1 0 020130501 Chase Field Paul Goldschmidt 1B 	5  2 292 0  0  0  2   1   0 1 020130830 Chase Field Paul Goldschmidt 1B 	3  1 300 0  0  0  2   0   0 0 120140403 Chase Field Paul Goldschmidt 1B 	4  2 423 0  0  1  2   2   1 0 020140409 ATT Park    Paul Goldschmidt 1B 	3  1 381 0  0  1  0   4   1 1 120140620 Chase Field Paul Goldschmidt 1B 	3  2 312 1  0  0  0   0   2 1 1
 
Gonzalez has two games versus NYY at Camden under his belt, both last season, where he allowed 5 runs in 13.0 IP for an ERA of 3.46. He just got done lasting 8.0 innings versus the Red Sox. Gonzalez is 3-0 SU in the subsequent game after lasting longer than 7 innings in his previous start. All three of those were home games against an average line of -120 in which the opposing teams averaged 3 ±0 runs per game and the Orioles won by an average margin of 3 ±1 runs. Gonzalez allowed 8 runs in 19.0 IP in those three games (3.79 ERA). But what I like the best is that the O's are 9-4 SU in Gonzalez's home starts versus the AL East (avg line -111).

Fantasy baseball guys may tell you about Kuroda's 33 Ks and three walks in eight career starts versus the Orioles - and his 3.14 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and .254 opponent OBP against them as well. The truth is that Kuroda has only made two starts at Camden Yards and the Yankees lost them both by an average margin of 2.5 ±0.5 runs. Going back to last season, the Yankees are 3-8 SU in Kuroda's road starts versus the AL East (avg line 103).

O's -113

 
Kuroda at Camden:

Code: 
Year W L W-L% ERA   G GS GF CG SHO SV IP  H  R ER HR BB	IBB SO HBP BK BF WHIP  SO9 SO/W2013 0 2 .000 10.13 2 2	 0  0  0   0  8.0 15 9 9  5  0	0   7  0   0  39 1.875 7.9
 
Raider Nation said:
Millions of peeps card-count, homey. These guys just did it better than most.

Lots of good books if you want to get started. Just make sure wherever you're playing don't have continuous shuffle machine.

Automatic shufflers are fine if you are counting. The CSMs are not.
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Right but a documentary gets made I figured something out of the ordinary happened...

 
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