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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (3 Viewers)

I quit there was no ####ing reason why the first half over shouldnt have hit.

Oh yeah i remember now, they decided to drop wide open TD's and also missed a 35 yard FG cool

DUMB

 
got_nugs said:
John Bender said:
got_nugs said:
John Bender said:
this game sucks so badly, I'm watching on mute so I could listen to the Eagles greatest hits.
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Jesus, man, can you change the station?
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Loaded up "Load" by MetallicaGot a bad rap, but is a great CD
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I'm a big fan of that Load album. I don't mind the Eagles personally...just love to use Lebowski quotes whenever I get the chance.
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Obviously you're not a golfer

 
got_nugs said:
John Bender said:
got_nugs said:
John Bender said:
this game sucks so badly, I'm watching on mute so I could listen to the Eagles greatest hits.
Click to expand...
Jesus, man, can you change the station?
Click to expand...
Loaded up "Load" by Metallica

Got a bad rap, but is a great CD
Click to expand...
I'm a big fan of that Load album. I don't mind the Eagles personally...just love to use Lebowski quotes whenever I get the chance.
Click to expand...
Eagles are a weird band.

You never like them sober.

But smoke a jaybird or have a 6 pack and "One of These Nights" or one of their more mellow tunes comes on and you're like "god i love this ####"

 
NFL Sharps Report, week 2

Nothing on NE/Min. Must have been OTB as they went to press due to the Peterson news.

DETROIT AT CAROLINA:
Sharps are once again lining up against Carolina. Many lost BIG money last week because they thought the loss of Cam Newton would be a major factor against Tampa Bay. Money has been coming in on the Lions in a way that suggests, once again, that Newton will miss the game. Carolina opened at -3.5. We’re now seeing a tug-of-war developing between Detroit +3 and Carolina -2.5…with the tugging coming harder on the Lions. Sources say that some sharps were impressed with the Lions this past Monday Night vs. NYG, and are betting “pro-Detroit” rather than “anti-Carolina.” Nothing happening on the total yet. From this point forward, if we don’t mention the total, it’s because sharps haven’t indicated a preference as of publication time.

MIAMI AT BUFFALO:
Both teams won last week in impressive fashion as underdogs. Sharps may have been a bit more impressed with Miami, because an opener of +1 is down to pick-em. Oddsmakers were already rating the Dolphins as the better team with the opener…the Wise Guy felt the distance wasn’t enough. The Over/Under is down from 44.5 to 43 with some doubt about the ability of both quarterbacks to play well two weeks in a row.

JACKSONVILLE AT WASHINGTON:
No interest on the team side here. Washington has looked awful thus far in 2014 (exhibitions and opener). But, -6 is about as low as you’ll see for a home team against the lousy Jaguars. Jacksonville did have a surprising first half last week…but was badly outclassed by the Eagles once Philly woke up. Wise Guys don’t want a piece of either team, though we’re hearing that some underdog money is waiting to see if the public pushes the line any higher. Those groups will settle for +6 if that’s the best they’ll get on game day. The Over/Under is down from 45 to 43.5 or 43. There aren’t currently any forecasts for significant weather issues, so Under betting on Sunday is connected to personnel or situational handicapping. So odd to see Under support after sharps spent five weeks betting Overs (to their regret!).

DALLAS AT TENNESSEE:
We’ve mentioned often in the past that it takes a lot of money to move off a three and STAY off in the NFL. So, even though it’s only a half-point move, the sharps really loved Tennessee at -3 on the opener. It’s been a solid -3.5 everywhere since the move, meaning no buyback on Dallas at the hook. Some sharps took a late day flyer on the Cowboys last week and were immediately embarrassed. But, a lot more sharps were heavy on the Titans at Kansas City and cleaned up. Our first Over of the week as the opening total of 47.5 is up to 49. We hear that’s based entirely on the bad defense of Dallas.

ARIZONA AT NY GIANTS:
Huge support here for Arizona after Monday Night Football showed how far off the pace the Giants are in learning their new offense. We’ve flipped favorits as an opener of NYG -1 is now up to Arizona -2.5. We’re hearing that sharp dog money is waiting for the full three. If the line stays at -2.5…then sharps will be satisfied to use the Giants in two-team teasers at +8.5 (a strategy that’s already lost for them on the Steelers this week). The total is down from 44.5 to 42.5 on the theory that NYG’s offense will have serious trouble getting points on the board against Arizona’s strong defense.

NEW ORLEANS AT CLEVELAND:
Only half the story has been told here thus far. Sharps preferring the Saints have driven the opener of -6 up to -6.5. Sharps preferring the Browns are waiting to see if they can get the full seven on game day. The public does like betting on Drew Brees. But, that’s cost the public a fortune this year and last! The Wise Guys wanting the Browns may have to settle for +6.5, or just pass the game. We’re hearing that the contingent wanting Browns +7 is significantly larger than the one that bet Saints -6.

ATLANTA AT CINCINNATI:
Another dead spot on the card, with an opener of Cincinnati -5 standing solid all week. Sharps made the game five, and recognize that both teams are in letdown spots after very important divisional wins last week. The Over/Under is up from 48 to 49 in many places because interconference games tend to have less defensive intensity.

ST. LOUIS AT TAMPA BAY:
Sharps still love Tampa Bay vs. backup quarterbacks! The fact that this game has moved from Bucs -3.5 to Bucs -6 may be suggesting that Shaun Hill won’t be able to return from his quad injury, meaning #3 Austin Davis or emergency acquisition Case Keenum could be seeing action. Either way, a Lovie Smith coached team should be expected to shut down backup QB’s…and that’s all the Rams have since the Sam Bradford injury. The total has dropped from 38 to 37, which is very low for the NFL these days.

SEATTLE AT SAN DIEGO:
Seattle is up from -5 to -6 given their stellar start to the season at Green Bay while San Diego’s offense struggled vs. Arizona (in what did turn out to be an underdog cover for them anyway). We’re hearing San Diego money would come in at +7, and might even settle for +6.5 if that’s the best they’re going to get. Plenty of time before this late kickoff for the public to heat the Seahawks.

HOUSTON AT OAKLAND:
Very little interest in this one…as we again have unimpressive teams priced right where the sharps had made the number anyway. The total has dropped from 40.5 to 39.5 because of the weak offensive performances both teams put on the board last week.

NY JETS AT GREEN BAY:
Low interesting game at the opening price. The Packers started at -8. Some stores are testing -8.5. Sportsbooks would prefer this one move out of the teaser window, because the whole world will take Green Bay -2 or -2.5 in two-team teasers if there isn’t a line move before kickoff. Sharps have bet the total up from 45 to 46.

KANSAS CITY AT DENVER:
No interest here either, with Denver -12.5 still standing pat. We may see a tug-of-war develop on game day between the public on Denver -12.5 and sharps on Kansas City +13. The Wise Guys were skeptical about the Chiefs last week, and got paid off. This is a very high number for a battle of playoff teams though.

CHICAGO AT SAN FRANCISCO:
Looks like we have a tug-of-war shaping up here between San Francisco -6.5 and Chicago +7. There are already signs of that between different sharp syndicates. Public betting will only magnify the issue because most squares want TV favorites, but the Bears do have a large square following. Pick your team and get the best number! That’s what the Wise Guys are doing.

PHILADELPHIA AT INDIANAPOLIS:
Possibly a tug-of-war here too between Indianapolis -3 and Philadelphia +3.5. For now, the Colts are getting more support at the three...but not enough to sustain any moves off the key number. The total is up from 52.5 to 54, projecting a shootout in good scoring conditions with talented young quarterbacks. Monitor line moves on game day for additional information.
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There are a lot of lines on the move before Saturday’s games kickoff. We chat with Steve Mikkelson, sportsbook manager at the Atlantis Casino and Spa in Reno, Nevada about the most notable adjustments on the Week 3 board:

West Virginia Mountaineers at Maryland Terrapins – Open: 57.5, Move: 60.5

This total has jumped as many as three points at some books – and not just because the Terps will be rolling out in their new Under Armor “Triumph” unis this Saturday. Bettors are expecting a high-scoring contest between these two rivals.

“That’s a game, on paper, that looks like it could have the making of a shootout,” Mikkelson tells Covers. “We were later getting our totals out and skipped the move and went right to 60.”

Georgia Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks – Open: +4.5, Move: +6.5

Early money is fading the Gamecocks but Mikkelson is surprised it has climbed so high heading into the weekend. The Bulldogs were blown out the last time they stepped foot inside Williams-Brice Stadium, losing 35-7 in 2012.

“Part of me says South Carolina is too good a program to be this big an underdog at home,” he says. “The spread seems high. Should be in the -4 or -4.5 range. Maybe at the end of the game, we look at it and say, ‘Yeah, Georgia is that good’.”

Miami (Ohio) Redhawks at Michigan Wolverines – Open: -30.5, Move: -33.5

A week after getting rolled by Notre Dame, Michigan is a massive favorite at home to a MAC opponent and the betting public is playing the Wolverines with both fists, tacking an extra field goal on the original spread.

Mikkelson, a die-hard Michigan fan, is a little apprehensive about a spread this big after what he saw from his Wolverines in Week 2.

“For the first couple weeks, the public loves to play these big schools versus smaller schools and they’re never afraid to lay those big points,” he says. “The part that scares me is that after a loss like the Notre Dame one, pretty much the season is over except for the Ohio State game. They could sleepwalk through the rest of the season. What kind of effect does it have on Michigan?”

Kansas Jayhawks at Duke Blue Devils – Open: -17, Open: -14

This non-conference clash between basketball – not so much football powers – has come down an entire field goal at some markets. Mikkelson says there hasn’t been a lot bet on this game, but what action has come in has come from the wiseguys.

“These early moves on these types of games are always from sharp action,” he says. “Anything we have on Kansas if sharp, but I could see this going back up once the public comes in (on Duke). This Kansas program is just so very, very bad.”

Minnesota Golden Gophers at TCU Horned Frogs – Open: -10, Move: -16, Move: -15.5

Early money faded Minnesota with quarterback Mitch Leidner expected to miss this week’s game against TCU with a knee injury. That pumped up the Horn Frogs as much as six points on the original spread. But, as of Friday, it looks like Leidner is ready to play and money has started to trickle back in on the Gophers.

“Normally people like to jump on these injuries early, expecting guys to be out before the official announcement,” says Mikkelson. “People were speculating but the line should come back now that he’s probable. Games like this, it seems more (wagers are) based on speculation on what is going to happen than when it actually happens.”

USC Trojans at Boston College Eagles – Open: +19.5, Move: +17

Unlike books online and even in Las Vegas, Reno casinos see added action on teams from California in all sports due to its proximity to the Golden State. And Southern Cal is no exception. However, with this cross-country trip setting up a huge letdown spot after last week’s win over Stanford, Mikkelson isn’t padding the USC spread like normal.

“We always see USC money. I doesn’t stop,” he tells Covers. “That travel from coast to coast is difficult to overcome, but we’ll still see money on USC. In a situation like this, I think BC is the right side and will stay on the money and hope BC is the right side at +17. We usually make the USC spreads about a half point higher, knowing that there is going to be nothing but money on the Trojans.”

Nevada Wolf Pack at Arizona Wildcats – Open: -14.5, Move: -18

While the University of Nevada calls Reno home, football bettors give their Wolf Pack the cold shoulder when it comes to the ticket window. According to Mikkelson, there is never much action on Nevada games and so far it’s all been Arizona money heading into Saturday.

“It’s surprising but we never have a Nevada backing,” he says, dealing Arizona -17.5 after opening at -15.5. “Last week against Washington State, people came in and bet WSU then went to the game and cheered for Nevada. I guess they figured they’d win one way or the other.”

Other notable moves:

Syracuse at Central Michigan – Open: +7.5, Move: +6.5
Indiana at Bowling Green – Open: +6, Move +8
Georgia Southern at Georgia Tech – Open: -22, Move: -17
Kent State at Ohio State – Open: -29.5, Move: -32.5
Arkansas at Texas Tech – Open: -3, Move: -1
Iowa State at Iowa – Open: -13.5, Move: -11.5
North Carolina State at South Florida – Open: +3, Move: +1.5
Navy at Texas State – Open: +12.5, Move: +9.5
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A big FU to BYU. Giving up that hail mary before half cost me at 3 different books. The Steelers failing to get a t.d. at all cost me catchiing that middle of over38.5 and 50.5. Nice call on Baylor tonight, caught a few units back.

 
Here are the reverse money trend movements for tomorrow. All three point to taking the home dogs. 2-2 on these on week 1, there was only 1 notable movement in week 2 but that was due to an injury update before gametime.

Air Force opened -13 @ Georgia State, 86% on Air Force and line down to -11.

Mississippi St. opened -15.5 @ South Alabama, 79% on Miss. St. and line down to -13.

USC opened -19.5 @ Boston College, 71% on USC and line down to -17. This is also a ranked team on the road.

will be taking So. Ala. and BC, system or not can't get myself to touch the AFA-GS game. thanks for the Baylor 1h play tonight, followed to a nice payday along with the 1h TT over 28 1/2.

 
Pigskin Fanatic said:
Here are the reverse money trend movements for tomorrow. All three point to taking the home dogs. 2-2 on these on week 1, there was only 1 notable movement in week 2 but that was due to an injury update before gametime.

Air Force opened -13 @ Georgia State, 86% on Air Force and line down to -11.

Mississippi St. opened -15.5 @ South Alabama, 79% on Miss. St. and line down to -13.

USC opened -19.5 @ Boston College, 71% on USC and line down to -17. This is also a ranked team on the road.

will be taking So. Ala. and BC, system or not can't get myself to touch the AFA-GS game. thanks for the Baylor 1h play tonight, followed to a nice payday along with the 1h TT over 28 1/2.
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Good stuff.

 
Insomnia leads to good research, I hope.

Here's what I have punched in for today:

South Alabama +13 vs. Mississippi St.

Boston College +17 vs. USC

Boise State -16.5 @ UConn

Iowa State +13 @ Iowa

Parlay: Arkansas PK @ Texas Tech / Arkansas/Texas Tech OVER 66.5

Arkansas Texas Tech OVER 66.5 for another extra unit

 
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