So I had some time and went through all the players after round 4 to decide which I liked best for value for FFPC best ball. This isn't to say I don't like guys like A.J. Dillon or Terry McLaurin, but I don't like where they are going.
QB - I am going to go deeper sleepers here. My strategy has been take one of the top 10ish guys and then pair them with the guys I am going to mention.
Zach Wilson - This is where I am going to start with the value qbs. All the other guys I like are before round 10 and it feels too early. Wilson should have a good line, a decent running game and lots of pass catchers.
Daniel Jones - If I remember correctly in Jones's rookie year he had 4 weeks where he finished as overall qb2 or higher. That is what we are looking for in best ball, he has receivers, and a good running back (if he can stay healthy). We have to hope that the moves made with the line are an improvement and he adjusts to a new system quickly.
Jared Goff - I like what the Lions are trying to build, but they aren't there yet. This should be a bad team with lots of garbage time stats to be had, plus the Lions didn't bring anyone in to compete with him so he will have a long leash.
Davis Mills - A lot like Goff, but a higher ceiling because we just don't know how good he is. If he was in this years draft he most likely would have been the first qb taken.
RB
Tony Pollard - Could be a top 10 back if Zeke gets hurt or just stinks, plus he has some stand alone value. I really think Dallas tries to keep Zeke fresh because they are thinking about a deep playoff run.
Devin Singletary - I am going to admit my bias here, I loved him since he was a rookie and was taking him in all my dynasty drafts. I believe that the way he finished last year, plus the fact that Buffalo only tried to bring in pass catching backs to the mix (McKissic, then Cook) says they trust Singletary to be the guy on running downs. He is great for best ball and could have upside as a pass catcher if Cook struggles as rookies do sometimes.
Rhamondre Stevenson - We can't trust the Patriot backfield, but this is best ball so we don't have to. I still think they will be a run heavy team that uses multiple backs and Harris doesn't seem to ever stay healthy.
Alexander Mattison - Same as Pollard, but going 4 rounds later. Might be my highest owned player in best ball this year.
Dameon Pierce - I don't know a lot about the rookies coming in because my dynasty days are over, but he doesn't have a lot of competition and this is a cheap lotto ticket.
Darrell Henderson - This is the same as last year, he is the main handcuff for a very good offense.
Kenneth Gainwell - I prefer him to Sanders because of 7 round discount and Sanders not staying healthy.
Jamal Williams - The Lions want to run the ball and Swift doesn't seem like a guy that can handle being a workhorse. Plus this is PPR and Goff likes to check down and Williams is a good pass catcher.
Sony Michel - He looked good last year for the Rams in spots. I am not sold on any of the Miami rbs, but this is a cheap gamble.
D'Ernest Johnson - He played really last year when Hunt and Chubb were sidelined. Maybe he gets traded.
Matt Breida - He looked good late last year for the Bills and now is the main handcuff for a guy that can't stay healthy.
Jeff Wilson - Things you can count on: death, taxes and 49er running backs getting hurt. Which means for a few games Wilson will be the guy and he usually delivers in those spots.
WR
D.J. Moore - Love his talent, there are still rumors that the Panthers are trying to get Jimmy G. or Baker. With a little luck Moore could be a top 12 receiver this year. He has a consistent floor and also provides big upside that you love in the bestball format. His qb play is why you can get him in the 5th round.
Amari Cooper - He might be my favorite of this group and the only stopping his ADP from rising is the unknown that is Watson. He is far and away the best pass catcher on this team and should be forced targets. In best ball I don't see the downside here, if Watson is suspended for the year Cooper is almost unstartable, but this is best ball so you don't have to time his big games and he will have quite a few of them even with bad qb play.
Chris Godwin - He is going to shoot up all the way into round 2 if he is healthy and ready for week 1. Even if he is on pup for the first 6 weeks of the year round 5 feels way to late for what he will provide you when he does come back. He isn't just a wr1 he could be the number 1 overall wr if things break the right way.
Mike Williams - Is this the year he takes over as the number from Allen? He sure looked like it last year for the first 5ish weeks, before he crashed and burned. I expect him to take another step in unseating Allen as the number 1 in this offense. I think this year he is 1A to Allen.
Courtland Sutton - I am not sold on Jeudy yet, injuries, legal troubles and I think Sutton fits Wilson's style better than Jeudy.
Allen Robinson - I don't love Robinson for regular leagues. I think he is going to be up and down all year like Woods was last year, but in best ball there are going to be weeks where teams really try to limit Kupp and Robinson goes off.
Juju Smith-Schuster - Very similar to Robinson, the Chiefs have too many weapons on offense to think Juju will be consistent all year.
Darnell Mooney - Volume, volume, volume. I expect Fields to be better this year and this is his only real pass catching threat. Think of Pittman in Indy last season
Brandin Cooks - Same as Mooney, but on a worse team, without a decent running back or a running qb. If you get 2 or even 3 of these guys between Moore and Cooks I think you have done a really nice job for best ball.
Christian Kirk - Meyer and his toxic environment are gone and I think that helps the team, but they are still going to be a bad team that has to throw. Kirk is the top target for this team and should be PPR gold.
Allen Lazard - Rookie receivers just don't hit the ground running with Aaron Rodgers and it doesn't matter how good they are. Off the top on my head Lazard was a top 10ish wr for the last 5 games of the year last. He has earned Rodgers trust and if he can stay healthy we will be rewarded with lots of fantasy points.
Russell Gage - He really turned it on at the end of the year last year when Ridely took time off. I strongly recommend grabbing Gage if you have Godwin. Plus there could be games where both are starters in best ball.
Tyler Boyd - He is going to give you very erratic wr3 numbers in the 12th round. If there are any injuries to players at the other skill positions on his team he could give you those numbers more consistently.
Rondale Moore - No Hopkins for the first 6 weeks. I expect him to be a cheap version of Deebo. He will not get you the touchdowns that Deebo did, but maybe 60ish percent of the yardage production.
Mecole Hardman - This is the biggest boom or bust. He could be a complete waste of a pick or he could be Hill light.
Tim Patrick - The guy doesn't drop passes... ever. If any of the pass catchers in Denver get hurt he could be in for a major increase in targets. In a good offense, with a great qb, in what should be a high scoring division.
Jamison Crowder - The slot guy for Josh Allen is going to have some big games. If Crowder can earn that role he is going to have some nice games when teams try to take away Diggs and Davis.
Corey Davis - Wilson loved Davis last year. Will that continue with Moore getting better and the addition of Wilson? I am willing to find out for a round 20ish pick.
Van Jefferson - He could be an injury away from being a starter in a high powered offense across from another wr who will be getting all the attention. Even if everyone stays healthy he is still a deep ball threat that can give you some weeks as a flex when he does catch a long td.
Odell Beckham Jr - I hope he doesn't go back to the Rams, it is too crowded. I am willing to gamble on him this late and hope he ends up with wr needy team.
K.J. Osborn - Same as Van Jefferson above, but he has an aging wr in front of him that has trouble staying healthy.
Donovan Peoples-Jones - If Watson plays he could be the Will Fuller of this team and going well after round 20 is way too cheap for a guy like that.
Marvin Jones - Feels too late for a guy that should be able to get 600+ yards.
Sterling Sheppard - He is Jones safety blanket. When healthy you could pencil him in for 6 for 60 every week.
Bryan Edwards - Now that is in Atlanta he has a chance to be the number 2 guy after Pitts.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine - If Burks struggles as a rookie and Woods isn't ready he could be the wr1 for the Titans and you get him with your last pick.
TE
Mike Gesicki - He is perfect for best ball because his floor is so low, like he could get you 0 points low. Teams are going to have to account for Hill and Waddle at all times and that should leave Gesicki open for some big games.
Rob Gronkowski - I think he comes back, he just doesn't want to go through all the off-season crap. So you are getting a top 10 tight end in tight end premium in the 10thish round.
Cole Kmet - Almost all the tight ends that finish top 5 for fantasy are top 2 in targets on their team. After Mooney I don't see a lot in his way.
Hunter Henry - He is going to have bad weeks and top 5 tight end weeks. It is best ball so you don't have to pick, just pair him with a high floor guy.
David Njoku - Look above at what I said about Kmet and this applies to Njoku. Plus the few times that tight ends did finish top 5 without being a top 2 target getter on their team it was with an elite QB. Which Watson is.
Austin Hooper - He could be good just because there isn't much for the Titans to throw too. Henry can't run it 35 times a game.
Brevin Jordan - He showed flashes last season and like Kmet and Njoku there isn't much in his way after Cooks. Add in lots of garbage time and a QB that could be getting better and there is a lot to like about Jordan as your 3rd tight end in round 18 or so.
Mo Allie-Cox - Ryan likes throwing to the tight end and after Pittman there are a lot of unknowns for INDY. He has shown us some big games before.
Cameron Brate - Insurance policy incase Gronk doesn't play or gets hurt. He is still a huge redzone target in a great offense.
. I mean have a blast with Kmet being a part of Fields's 150 yard pass games his 10 pass TD's he throws for the year). Gronk could announce his retirement tomorrow and would still take him and the chances he unretires over Cole FN Kmet.
Still loving the later picks here. Pitts has been the one early guy I've come around on just because I find the WR/RB options so bad in the late 3rd.