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Fiesta Bowl - OSU scores TD to go up 21-17 (1 Viewer)

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4th Quarter 2:05 left in the game. OSU just scored a TD [OSU 21 - UT 17] and can go for 1 or 2. (They went for 2 and failed.)

OSU had 3 timeouts left and Texas had 2 left I think, but I'm not totally sure about the timeout situation.

Let's go over the options...

If OSU goes for 2 and gets it they are up by 6. [OSU 23 - UT 17]

If OSU goes for 2 and fails they are up by 4. [OSU 21 - UT 17]

If OSU goes for 1 and gets it they are up by 5. [OSU 22 - UT 17]

Of course OSU can always miss the extra point, but Texas could return a 2 point try. These cases are just not very likely. So if Texas trails by 4-6 points they need a TD either way. I guess OSU can go up by 6 and put pressure on them to kick an extra point to take the lead, which is wishful thinking at best.

Let's see what Texas will do if they score a TD...

If OSU was up by 6 [uT 23 - OSU 23], Texas will kick an extra point. OSU will then trail by 1. [uT 24 - OSU 23]

If OSU was up by 5 [uT 23 - OSU 22], Texas will go for 2. OSU will trail by 1 if they stop the 2 point try, and 3 if they don't.

If OSU was up by 4 [uT 23 - OSU 21], Texas will go for 1. OSU will trail by 3. [uT 24 - OSU 21]

If OSU is trailing by 3 then a FG ties. If they are trailing by 1 or 2 they will be kicking to win.

OSU has a kicker that can hit long FGs and they are in a dome, which I think is worth noting.

To me the decision to go for 1 seems fundamental, but I didn't hear anyone question it. Not the broadcast team, nor anyone in the post game coverage. I am not saying that it is the reason they lost, but I think it's a mental mistake by the coaching staff. Sure it's a hectic time in the game, but isn't the ability to think clearly in the fog of war what good coaching is really all about. Is it really wise to go for 2 in this situation?

 
Yes, a mental mistake. Yes the broadcast crew was way off base, like they often are. Yes it is an obvious decision. It was only slightly more stupid than when the WR into the end zone and cost his team 15 yards on the kick-off.

 
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Yes, a mental mistake. Yes the broadcast crew was way off base, like they often are. Yes it is an obvious decision. It was only slightly more stupid than when the WR into the end zone and cost his team 15 yards on the kick-off.
Both :thumbup: so far. Couldn't believe the logic that the broadcasters were using, as the decision to kick the XP seemed obvious in that situation.
 
XPs are never a sure thing in college, so given how little time was left, the thinking obviously there was to go up by 6, in case Texas scored a TD and missed the XP. I didn't have a problem with it at all.

 
Yes, a mental mistake. Yes the broadcast crew was way off base, like they often are. Yes it is an obvious decision. It was only slightly more stupid than when the WR into the end zone and cost his team 15 yards on the kick-off.
Really? What's the difference in leading by 5 vs 4 with 2:00 left? Nothing. What's the difference in leading by 6 vs. 5 or 4? If the other teams scores a TD, you still have a shot to be tied if they miss the PAT or if you block the PAT? Highly unlikely but you give yourself a shot still. Whereas kicking to go up 5 means a you lose with a TD the same as you would down 4.
 
XPs are never a sure thing in college, so given how little time was left, the thinking obviously there was to go up by 6, in case Texas scored a TD and missed the XP. I didn't have a problem with it at all.
Hunter Lawrence was 59/59 on XP before that kick. The likelihood of UT scoring with enough time to allow OSU to kick a FG was much higher than the odds of Lawrence missing the XP.
 
XPs are never a sure thing in college, so given how little time was left, the thinking obviously there was to go up by 6, in case Texas scored a TD and missed the XP. I didn't have a problem with it at all.
Texas was something like 69 for 69 on XP's heading into last night's game, which is as close to a sure thing as you're going to find in college football. Going for two in that situation seemed foolish. Kick the XP and make Texas go for 2 if they somehow score a TD. Even if Texas scores a TD + 2, you can still tie with a FG. If Texas scores a TD and fails on the 2, a FG wins you the game. Much better odds of that happening than OSU converting a 2 pointer PLUS Texas missing an XP.
 
Yes, a mental mistake. Yes the broadcast crew was way off base, like they often are. Yes it is an obvious decision. It was only slightly more stupid than when the WR into the end zone and cost his team 15 yards on the kick-off.
Really? What's the difference in leading by 5 vs 4 with 2:00 left? Nothing. What's the difference in leading by 6 vs. 5 or 4? If the other teams scores a TD, you still have a shot to be tied if they miss the PAT or if you block the PAT? Highly unlikely but you give yourself a shot still. Whereas kicking to go up 5 means a you lose with a TD the same as you would down 4.
If you are up by 5, a TD followed by a FG wins you the game. If you are up by 4, a TD followed by a TD sends you to overtime against a team with a much better offense than you. No brainer.
 
XPs are never a sure thing in college, so given how little time was left, the thinking obviously there was to go up by 6, in case Texas scored a TD and missed the XP. I didn't have a problem with it at all.
Hunter Lawrence was 59/59 on XP before that kick. The likelihood of UT scoring with enough time to allow OSU to kick a FG was much higher than the odds of Lawrence missing the XP.
And if OSU had enough time left and kicked a FG, it's still 24-24 and they haven't lost yet. If they had taken the PAT to go up 22-17, then Texas goes for 2 when they score and there is still a decent chance that Texas leads 25-22. Tressel gave his team a shot to block a PAT to stay in the game whereas kicking the PAT would not have done so. Not quite as stupid as you would think. You should watch throwing that term around. :goodposting:
 
Yes, a mental mistake. Yes the broadcast crew was way off base, like they often are. Yes it is an obvious decision. It was only slightly more stupid than when the WR into the end zone and cost his team 15 yards on the kick-off.
Really? What's the difference in leading by 5 vs 4 with 2:00 left? Nothing. What's the difference in leading by 6 vs. 5 or 4? If the other teams scores a TD, you still have a shot to be tied if they miss the PAT or if you block the PAT? Highly unlikely but you give yourself a shot still. Whereas kicking to go up 5 means a you lose with a TD the same as you would down 4.
If you are up by 5, a TD followed by a FG wins you the game. If you are up by 4, a TD followed by a TD sends you to overtime against a team with a much better offense than you. No brainer.
Right, if you're up by 5 and Texas scores, they will kick to go up 2 so a FG beats them. No brainer. Right. :goodposting:
 
XPs are never a sure thing in college, so given how little time was left, the thinking obviously there was to go up by 6, in case Texas scored a TD and missed the XP. I didn't have a problem with it at all.
Hunter Lawrence was 59/59 on XP before that kick. The likelihood of UT scoring with enough time to allow OSU to kick a FG was much higher than the odds of Lawrence missing the XP.
And if OSU had enough time left and kicked a FG, it's still 24-24 and they haven't lost yet. If they had taken the PAT to go up 22-17, then Texas goes for 2 when they score and there is still a decent chance that Texas leads 25-22. Tressel gave his team a shot to block a PAT to stay in the game whereas kicking the PAT would not have done so. Not quite as stupid as you would think. You should watch throwing that term around. :goodposting:
Yep, Texas would have gone for 2, had it been 23-22 at the end, so we cannot just assume OSU would have won it with a FG following that. It might have only tied the game. As for the Texas kicker being perfect, that does change things a bit, but I still like going for 2. XPs can be blocked or missed. Gary Anderson hadn't missed all year before he missed that kick against Atlanta in January of '99.
 
Yes, a mental mistake. Yes the broadcast crew was way off base, like they often are. Yes it is an obvious decision. It was only slightly more stupid than when the WR into the end zone and cost his team 15 yards on the kick-off.
Really? What's the difference in leading by 5 vs 4 with 2:00 left? Nothing. What's the difference in leading by 6 vs. 5 or 4? If the other teams scores a TD, you still have a shot to be tied if they miss the PAT or if you block the PAT? Highly unlikely but you give yourself a shot still. Whereas kicking to go up 5 means a you lose with a TD the same as you would down 4.
If you are up by 5, a TD followed by a FG wins you the game. If you are up by 4, a TD followed by a TD sends you to overtime against a team with a much better offense than you. No brainer.
Right, if you're up by 5 and Texas scores, they will kick to go up 2 so a FG beats them. No brainer. Right. :goodposting:
Wouldn't be surprised to see them kick the XP; when you score TDs like that coaches sometimes just go into a shell and kick the XP since they're so happy to have scored the TD. See, e.g., Leach in the exact same situation.
 
XPs are never a sure thing in college, so given how little time was left, the thinking obviously there was to go up by 6, in case Texas scored a TD and missed the XP. I didn't have a problem with it at all.
Hunter Lawrence was 59/59 on XP before that kick. The likelihood of UT scoring with enough time to allow OSU to kick a FG was much higher than the odds of Lawrence missing the XP.
And if OSU had enough time left and kicked a FG, it's still 24-24 and they haven't lost yet. If they had taken the PAT to go up 22-17, then Texas goes for 2 when they score and there is still a decent chance that Texas leads 25-22. Tressel gave his team a shot to block a PAT to stay in the game whereas kicking the PAT would not have done so. Not quite as stupid as you would think. You should watch throwing that term around. :goodposting:
Yep, Texas would have gone for 2, had it been 23-22 at the end, so we cannot just assume OSU would have won it with a FG following that. It might have only tied the game. As for the Texas kicker being perfect, that does change things a bit, but I still like going for 2. XPs can be blocked or missed. Gary Anderson hadn't missed all year before he missed that kick against Atlanta in January of '99.
If you're ever making a decision where you say "well if the XP is missed" you really should re-think the decision. We're talking about a 1-2% chance at the absolute max. And really you can rarely measure percentages that close so it's mostly moot.
 
So in a little over a half hour, a bunch of people can't decide what the better decision would be - the coaches had 30 seconds. Give them a little break.

 
Yes, a mental mistake. Yes the broadcast crew was way off base, like they often are. Yes it is an obvious decision. It was only slightly more stupid than when the WR into the end zone and cost his team 15 yards on the kick-off.
Really? What's the difference in leading by 5 vs 4 with 2:00 left? Nothing. What's the difference in leading by 6 vs. 5 or 4? If the other teams scores a TD, you still have a shot to be tied if they miss the PAT or if you block the PAT? Highly unlikely but you give yourself a shot still. Whereas kicking to go up 5 means a you lose with a TD the same as you would down 4.
If you are up by 5, a TD followed by a FG wins you the game. If you are up by 4, a TD followed by a TD sends you to overtime against a team with a much better offense than you. No brainer.
Right, if you're up by 5 and Texas scores, they will kick to go up 2 so a FG beats them. No brainer. Right. :rolleyes:
Wouldn't be surprised to see them kick the XP; when you score TDs like that coaches sometimes just go into a shell and kick the XP since they're so happy to have scored the TD. See, e.g., Leach in the exact same situation.
What? And you had the nerve to call someone else (Tressel) stupid? Wow.
 
I would venture to guess that if you polled 100 D-1 college coaches what they would've done in Tressel's situation last night, a solid 80+ would've kicked the XP. The bottom line is that OSU going for 2 in that situation is a desperation play hoping that a team that's 100% on the year on XP's deviates from those odds. You give yourself zero chance to win in regulation if you fail on the 2 point conversion, which OSU did. If you kick the XP, you force Texas to go for 2 if they score a TD to push their lead back up to 3. You'd still then have a chance to push the game to OT. If Texas fails on their 2, then your FG wins the game.

If you're playing correct odds, the XP was the way to go. If you're desperate like OSU was, then you go for 2 and hope Texas misses their first XP of the season.

 
The bigger problem was that OSU shouldn't have scored the TD in the first place. After picking up the first down the back should have gone down at the one. They could have taken a knee twice, forced Texas to use all of their time outs, and tried to run for a TD on third down.

If they score the TD on third down they have the same lead they had but Texas gets the ball back with about a minute left and no timeouts.

If they don't score the TD on third down they can run the clock down to about 30 seconds before attempting a short FG (about equivalent to a PAT) to take a one point lead. Assuming they make the kick, Texas gets the ball back down 1 with about 20-25 seconds left.

And don't tell me that it was unreasonable for the guy to think of going down at the one. I was laying in bed about half asleep and when he almost scored on the previous play I was thinking he should go down. I couldn't believe the announcers didn't speculate that Texas let OSU score the touchdown to ensure they would get the ball back with enough time to go for the win.

 
But, if you are going to go for two I don't know why they didn't throw that little fade to Pryor again. They had run it twice and it was obvious that Texas couldn't stop it. It was absurd how easy Pryor made those catches.

 
- If OSU was up 5 and Texas scored a TD would they go for 2 to go up 3? (I think so.) There is a chance that the 2 point try is returned and OSU takes the lead. Is that more or less likely than a botched XP? Probably less, but add in the fact OSU has 3 timeouts and all it takes is basically 1 play or flag to get them into FG range to win it. You can go over these what if situations that happen such a small percentage of the time or you can think about getting the ball back with some time on the clock, timeouts, and a big leg kicker.

- Anderson missing that playoff FG is not the same as missing an XP, now if you want to mention that Saints game with a million laterals that's a more apt comparison. It happens such a small percentage of the time though, not nearly as often as a team gets down the field with a little time on the clock and attempts a long FG. (Atlanta Falcons) There has to be a realistic understanding of how the game plays out in terms of flukes and how good strategy creating opportunities improves small edges.

- These are not situations where coaches have 30 seconds to think about, you are talking about well paid coaching staffs that study the game year round and have done so for decades. Even if they haven't come across this specific score, they have a whole staff and they know they are driving so someone should give a little thought as to what happens if they score a TD.

- As far as not going in for the score, I think that would have been a very bad decision. By scoring the TD they can basically force UT to have to score a TD. It's an interesting debate and there are some situations where I think taking a knee is the best option, however this is not one of them due to the score and time situations.

 
Up by 4 with less than 3 minutes left in a game you go for 2.

Leading by 4 is the same as leading by 5. An extra point is meaningless.

If you're assuming that IF the other team scores a TD you MIGHT have enough time to rally for a FG to tie it, well - you're both unlikely to have that happen and you're also playing not to lose.

Make the two, go up by six and the other team at least needs to convert an extra point.

Miss it, they still have to score a touchdown to beat you.

That is the no-brainer.

 
Up by 4 with less than 3 minutes left in a game you go for 2.Leading by 4 is the same as leading by 5. An extra point is meaningless.If you're assuming that IF the other team scores a TD you MIGHT have enough time to rally for a FG to tie it, well - you're both unlikely to have that happen and you're also playing not to lose.Make the two, go up by six and the other team at least needs to convert an extra point.Miss it, they still have to score a touchdown to beat you.That is the no-brainer.
Wait, having the other team score a TD and you kick a FG is unlikely but converting the extra point isn't incredibly likely?And playing not to lose is a lot smarter than playing to tie, which is what JT did.
 
- If OSU was up 5 and Texas scored a TD would they go for 2 to go up 3? (I think so.) There is a chance that the 2 point try is returned and OSU takes the lead. Is that more or less likely than a botched XP? Probably less, but add in the fact OSU has 3 timeouts and all it takes is basically 1 play or flag to get them into FG range to win it. You can go over these what if situations that happen such a small percentage of the time or you can think about getting the ball back with some time on the clock, timeouts, and a big leg kicker.

- Anderson missing that playoff FG is not the same as missing an XP, now if you want to mention that Saints game with a million laterals that's a more apt comparison. It happens such a small percentage of the time though, not nearly as often as a team gets down the field with a little time on the clock and attempts a long FG. (Atlanta Falcons) There has to be a realistic understanding of how the game plays out in terms of flukes and how good strategy creating opportunities improves small edges.

- These are not situations where coaches have 30 seconds to think about, you are talking about well paid coaching staffs that study the game year round and have done so for decades. Even if they haven't come across this specific score, they have a whole staff and they know they are driving so someone should give a little thought as to what happens if they score a TD.

- As far as not going in for the score, I think that would have been a very bad decision. By scoring the TD they can basically force UT to have to score a TD. It's an interesting debate and there are some situations where I think taking a knee is the best option, however this is not one of them due to the score and time situations.
If you were a Buckeye fan, what scenario makes you more nervous?#1 - Up 4 (or 5 or 6), Texas ball at their own 21, 2:00 on the clock, Texas with two timeouts.

#2 - Up 1, Texas ball at their own 21, 0:35 on the clock, Texas with no timeouts.

I would be much happier with #2.

And, it's not like you couldn't have still scored.

Runner goes down at the one.

Texas takes their second timout (~2:00 left)

OSU takes a knee on First down.

Texas takes their final timout (~1:58 left)

OSU takes a knee on Second down.

Clock runs down to ~1:15.

OSU lines up in kneel down formation.

Pryor keeps the ball for a QB sneak up the middle and one of two possible outcomes:

#1

Texas stops him before he scores.

Clock runs down to ~0:35.

OSU calls first timeout.

OSU Kicks field goal to go up by one.

OSU kicks off and Texas takes possession with 0:30 left and no timeouts.

#2

Pryor scores a touchdown to go up by 4 (or 5 or 6).

OSU kicks off and Texas takes possession with ~1:10 left and no timeouts.

I think either of these is a much better situation than what ultimately ended up happening (Texas takes possession with ~2:00 left and two timeouts).

 
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If you're assuming that IF the other team scores a TD you MIGHT have enough time to rally for a FG to tie it, well - you're both unlikely to have that happen and you're also playing not to lose.
Assuming that a team that is 69/69 for XP's on the year is going to miss one if they score a TD is a much, much larger assumption than hoping to get the ball back with a FG opportunity if Texas does indeed score a TD. And in fact, it ended up playing out this way exactly. OSU got the ball back on something like their own 40 with 16 seconds left and a timeout (or two) still in their pocket. A pickup of 20 yards or so puts them in FG range with a chance to simply tie. Had they kicked the XP, they then force Texas into converting a 2 point conversion to push that lead back up to 3. And if Texas doesn't convert that 2, then OSU is kicking a long FG for the win rather than OT. So no, the 2 pointer isn't a "no brainer" by any stretch of the immagination.
 
By the way, this is not a unique situation.

I don't recall the game, but here's a link to both "The Chart" (which does say go for 2 when up by 4) and also a discussion of a Giants-Bears game that was 20-16 at the time (when it was also a questioned decision).

BigBlueInteractive.com

Seems like "Up by 4" is a controversial score.

Here's another site that has one of the better charts:

Chart with Times

Under 3 minutes it says that as long as you think you can make it over 45% of the time, go for 2.

That's close to the average success rate (40-50% depending on which studies you read).

I still say go for two, but maybe it isn't the no-brainer I originally thought.

 
My buddy and I were extremely puzzled by this call. After reading this thread, I suppose I can now at least see a semblance of logic going for two (previously I couldn't really fathom why you would bother).

I still think the XP is absolutely the way to go, as you put pressure on them to go for 2 if they score, and your FG could potentially win vs. tie.

 
Sidebar -- does college have the fair catch kick like the NFL does? I was wondering if OSU had that option on the short KO due to the penalty. I know it is a looooooong kick, but there would be no rush.

 
Sidebar -- does college have the fair catch kick like the NFL does? I was wondering if OSU had that option on the short KO due to the penalty. I know it is a looooooong kick, but there would be no rush.
I was thinking the same saying they should fair catch. Even if they don't have the rule, the 5-8 seconds you'll save on the kick is worth more than the 20 yards you'd probably gain.
 
Interesting charts, but are those charts for NFL football? College football has different rules. (Clock, 2 point try rules, hash mark dimensions, overtime rules, etc.)

I'm all for game theory, but "There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about." -JvN

Is there a chart for domes? Kickers who have already hit a 50 yard FG in the current game?

There is so much information that OSU has that could be used to make the numbers behind that chart so much more accurate in terms of maximizing winning % as it applies to them. Small changes in variables can alter decisions drastically from an optimal standpoint.

OSU has 2 kickers on their roster, 1 of which is a long distance specialist. Things like this should be considered in the overall philosophy of situational play at the end of games.

Q-Bert, as I said before your strategy makes for an interesting debate. In this situation I disagree with it, because philosophically I would prefer taking the lead and keeping them out of the endzone. That's just my opinion, but honestly yours is just as valid and somewhat innovative which I respect.

 
Yes, a mental mistake. Yes the broadcast crew was way off base, like they often are. Yes it is an obvious decision. It was only slightly more stupid than when the WR into the end zone and cost his team 15 yards on the kick-off.
I noticed that there were a number of really rookie mistakes made by the booth, saying stupid stuff that was never corrected. I counted 2-3 things in the 4 quarter alone that were just plain wrong.The thing I didn't get (after going for the 2 point) was why, being at around the 40-45 yard line, with what, 29 seconds left and a couple of timeouts that they didn't just go underneath or bring in Pryor to try to run a couple of 15 yard intermediate plays (pass, run scramble, whatever) and shoot for the long FG. The odds had to be better than trying to just throw it up.
 
Yes, a mental mistake. Yes the broadcast crew was way off base, like they often are. Yes it is an obvious decision. It was only slightly more stupid than when the WR into the end zone and cost his team 15 yards on the kick-off.
I noticed that there were a number of really rookie mistakes made by the booth, saying stupid stuff that was never corrected. I counted 2-3 things in the 4 quarter alone that were just plain wrong.The thing I didn't get (after going for the 2 point) was why, being at around the 40-45 yard line, with what, 29 seconds left and a couple of timeouts that they didn't just go underneath or bring in Pryor to try to run a couple of 15 yard intermediate plays (pass, run scramble, whatever) and shoot for the long FG. The odds had to be better than trying to just throw it up.
I think they only had 16 seconds left. So they only had time for two plays to get into field goal range.
 

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