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First 10 Rounds Complete of FBG Draft (1 Viewer)

My thoughts:

1.01 Fullback Fro - RB Ladanian Tomlinson - duh1.03 Rush - RB Shaun Alexander - slightly risky with his destination unknown1.05 LHUCKS - RB Tiki Barber - drafted here based solely upon '04 results...he should go later in round one1.06 Radballs - RB Edgerrin James - good1.07 Federal - RB Priest Holmes - good1.08 Motown - RB Domanick Davis - good1.09 rzrback77 - RB Ahman Green - good1.10 Twilight - RB Jamal Lewis - good1.11 Duke1948 - RB Willis McGahee - good1.12 Iwannabeacowboybaby - RB Kevin Jones - too early...should be very good but would rather take him next round1.13 Shadowfax - RB Deuce McAllister - good1.14 Colin - RB Clinton Portis - good1.15 Fiddles - RB Julius Jones - good1.16 AhrnCityPahnder - RB Corey Dillon - good2.01 ACP -- RB Curtis Martin - good, but I probably won't take him2.02 Fiddles -- RB Thomas Jones - good2.04 ShadowFax -- RB Rudi Johnson - good2.05 WannabeCowboy -- RB Fred Taylor - good2.09 Motown -- RB Brian Westbrook - very good...a steal this late2.10 Federal -- RB Steven Jackson - too risky when paired up with the now-always-injured Holmes2.11 Radballs -- RB Chris Brown - would be a steal if he stays healthy2.12 LHUCKS -- RB Lee Suggs - don't like this spot for him...has to stay healthy to have any value here2.13 Fam Matters - RB Tatum Bell - will probably be very good...drafting this early is a risk though2.14 Rush - RB Michael Pittman - I like him, but he probably won't be any better than this spot2.15 Rudnicki - RB Cedric Benson - extremely risky w/out knowing his team3.02 Rudnicki -- RB Warrick Dunn - good3.08 Motown -- RB Michael Bennett - good3.09 rzrback77 -- RB Kevan Barlow - good3.11 Duke1948 -- RB Travis Henry - should be good if he can get out of Buffalo and have a shot somewhere else4.03 Colin -- RB Ronnie Brown - don't like taking RBs as RB1 or RB2 w/out know their team4.07 Twilight -- RB Deshaun Foster - a reach on what seems to be an injury-proned RB...should have taken Duckett4.13 Fam Matters - RB Duce Staley - good but would rather have Duckett4.14 Rush --RB Onterrio Smith - should have taken Duckett4.15 Rudnicki -- RB Carnell Williams - should have taken Duckett4.16 Fullback Fro -- RB Larry Johnson - not bad, but should have taken Duckett5.01 Fullback Fro -- RB TJ Duckett - oh, he did take Duckett5.15 Fiddles -- RB - Jerome Bettis - '04 looks so much like a last hurrah that this pick could be a wash7.06 Radballs -- RB Marshall Faulk - ditto7.09 rzrback77 -- RB Reuben Droughns - '04 looks so much like an only hurrah that this pick could be a wash7.10 Twilight -- RB Derrick Blaylock - OK7.11 Duke1948 -- RB Lamont Jordan - OK8.03 Colin -- RB Chris Perry- OK8.05 WannabeCowboy -- RB Stephen Davis - interesting8.10 Federal -- RB Marcel Shipp - interesting8.12 LHUCKS -- RB William Green - OK8.14 Rush -- RB Correll Buckhalter - interesting9.05 LHUCKS -- RB Anthony Thomas - OK9.08 Motown -- RB Dominic Rhodes - OK9.13 ShadowFax -- RB Najeh Davenport - OK9.14 Colin -- RB Nick Goings - interesting9.16 ACP -- RB Kevin Faulk - OK10.04 ShadowFax -- RB Antowain Smith - probably little to no value in '0510.07 Twilight -- RB Mewelde Moore - OK10.13 Family Matters - RB Maurice Morris - OK10.15 Rudnicki -- RB Chester Taylor - OK1.02 Rudnicki - QB Peyton Manning - would be surprised to see him w/35 TDs in '05, but he's pretty solid for 28+1.04 Family Matters - QB Daunte Cullpepper - seems early2.07 Twilight -- QB Donovan McNabb would rather have Westbrook2.16 F. Fro -- QB Trent Green - solid if the Chiefs upgrade at WR3.01 Fullback Fro -- QB Michael Vick - good3.12 WannabeCowboy -- QB Marc Bulger - good3.13 ShadowFax -- QB Tom Brady - a rich man's Troy Aikman3.15 Fiddles -- QB Jake Delhomme - doesn't make my socks roll up and down4.01 ACP -- QB Jake Plummer - good4.06 Duke1948 -- QB Matt Hasselbeck - will be undervalued in '054.08 rzrback -- QB Aaron Brooks - good4.09 Motown -- QB Drew Brees - don't like this spot5.03 Rush -- QB Brett Favre - surely he won't retire5.05 LHUCKS -- QB Steve McNair - will be undervalued in '05 if he plays5.06 Radballs -- QB Byron Leftwich - good5.08 Motown -- QB David Carr - a middle class man's Troy Aikman5.10 Twilight -- QB Carson Palmer - good5.11 Duke1948 -- QB Chad Pennington - very good5.12 WannabeCowboy -- QB Ben Roethlisberger - seems too early5.13 ShadowFax -- QB Kerry Collins - seems too early, but he could be very good5.14 Colin -- QB Brian Griese - good6.10 Federal -- QB Eli Manning - wouldn't want him as my #1 QB7.03 Rush -- QB Joey Harrington - good7.04 Family Matters -- QB Patrick Ramsey - should be good, but something doesn't seem right with him7.05 LHUCKS -- QB Drew Bledsoe - yuk7.07 Federal -- QB Rex Grossman - better than Manning the Younger8.01 ACP -- QB Kyle Boller - if they add a quality WR, this is a steal10.08 rzrback -- QB Josh McCown - if he's starting, this is good value10.09 Motown -- QB Billy Volek - OK2.03 Colin -- WR Randy Moss - '05 has super value written all over him2.06 Duke1948 --WR Terrell Owens - good3.03 Rush -- WR Torry Holt - good3.04 Family Matters -- WR Chad Johnson - good3.05 LHUCKS -- WR Marvin Harrison - good3.06 Radballs -- WR Javon Walker - good3.10 Twilight -- WR Roy Williams - good3.14 Colin -- WR Joe Horn - good4.02 Fiddles -- WR Reggie Wayne - good4.04 ShadowFax -- WR Andre Johnson - good4.05 WannabeCowboy -- WR Darrell Jackson - good4.10 Federal -- WR Hines Ward - good4.11 Radballs -- WR Isaac Bruce - good but seems to find more nicks lately...could be wearing down5.02 Rudnicki -- WR Derrick Mason - good5.07 Federal -- WR Ashley Lelie - still not sold, but this is an OK spot for him5.09 rzrback77 -- WR Eric Moulds - good5.16 ACP -- WR Steve Smith - good6.01 ACP -- WR Michael Clayton - good6.02 Fiddles -- WR Nate Burleson - not bad, but feel like we'll see regression in his '05 numbers6.03 Colin -- WR Anquan Boldin - good6.04 ShadowFax -- WR Chris Chambers - could be a steal6.05 WannabeCowboy -- WR Drew Bennett - a bit over valued6.06 Duke1948 -- WR Laverneus Coles - good6.07 Twilight -- WR Santana Moss - OK6.08 rzrback -- WR Muhsin Muhammad - surely he'll be starting somewhere in '056.12 LHUCKS -- WR Plaxico Burress - '05 has super value written all over him6.13 Family Matters - WR Donald Driver - good6.15 Rudnicki -- WR Larry Fitzgerald - should be improved but not sold6.16 Fullback Fro -- WR Jimmy Smith - good7.01 Fullback Fro -- WR Jerry Porter - OK7.02 Rudnicki -- WR Rod Smith - OK7.08 Motown -- WR Eddie Kennison - OK7.12 WannabeCowboy -- WR Lee Evans - good7.15 Fiddles -- WR TJ Houshmandzadeh - OK but could see a regression in his '05 numbers7.16 ACP -- WR Brandon Stokely - could be the most over valued WR in '05 drafts8.02 Fiddles -- WR Charles Rogers - he'll need to play at least 14 games in a season before being on one of my teams8.04 ShadowFax -- WR Ronald Curry - not sold8.07 Twilight -- WR Antonio Bryant - not sold8.08 rzrback -- WR Justin McCareins - good8.09 Motown -- WR Koren Robinson - '05 has some value written all over him8.11 Radballs -- WR Deion Branch - good8.13 Family Matters - WR Keenan McCardell - good8.15 Rudnicki -- WR KEyshaun Johnson - good8.16 Fullback Fro -- WR Donte Stallworth - good9.02 Rudnicki -- WR David Givens - good9.03 Rush -- WR Peerless Price - ugh9.04 Family Matters -- WR Keary Colbert - OK9.06 Radballs -- WR Amani Toomer - '05 has super value written all over him9.07 Federal -- WR David Boston - '05 has some value written all over him9.09 rzrback77 -- WR Braylon Edwards - same as playing darts9.10 Twilight -- WR Tyrone Calico - might be good but this is too early9.11 Duke1948 -- WR Dennis Northcutt - OK9.12 WannabeCowboy -- WR Mike Williams - same as playing darts9.15 Fiddles -- WR Kevin Curtis - OK10.01 ACP -- WR Rod Gardner - good10.03 Colin -- WR Peter Warrick - OK10.10 Federal -- WR David Terrell - OK10.12 LHUCKS -- WR Terry Glenn - OK10.14 Rush -- WR Joey Galloway - OK10.16 Fullback Fro -- WR Eric Parker - OK2.08 rzrback -- TE Tony Gonzalez - good, but a reach since Gates was taken almost a full round later3.07 Federal -- TE Antonio Gates - good3.16 ACP -- TE Todd Heap - good4.12 LHUCKS -- TE Jason Witten - good5.04 Family Matters -- TE Jeremy Shockey - good6.09 Motown -- TE Alge Crumpler - good6.11 Radballs -- TE Kellen Winslow - good6.14 Rush -- TE Randy McMichael - excellent in the first half of the season7.13 ShadowFax -- TE Eric Johnson - not so good if they upgrade WRs7.14 Colin -- TE Dallas Clark - good9.01 Fullback Fro -- TE Jermaine Wiggins - what happens with Kleinsasser?10.02 Fiddles -- TE Ben Troupe - OK10.05 WannabeCowboy -- TE Jeb Putzier - good10.06 Duke1948 -- TE Daniel Graham - something not right with him8.06 Duke1948 -- DEF New England Patriots - good, but a reach since the Ravens were taken over two rounds later10.11 Radballs -- DEF Baltimore Ravens - good
Thanks Clayton - This kind of analysis is what makes these boards so good. Fro in 05'
Yes, I enjoyed this read as well. :thumbup:
 
I haven't read the thread yet, but Shadowfax's team looks incredibly strong to me (haven't checked bye weeks though).

 
So Aaron does not believe in VBD? Both him and Family Matters just fell into a huge trap with both QBs coming off record seasons. They won't repeat.I hope the rest of the footballguys.com staff does not fall into this short-term reactionary way of thinking. :thumbdown:
:sarcasm: :popcorn:
 
Thanks for commenting on all that.........couple things on my behalf, I too thought that going Big Ben where I did was early, and I could feel the reach but I knew I had to go QB in that spot........right behind me Kerry Collins was drafted, he could certainly outperform Ben, but he's still shakey IMO.........I saw you liked Griese, maybe he will too, in fact I know he will IF he plays 16 games. If the Bucs don't do well, the 2nd half of the season will be spent finding out of Simms can do the job. These were the thoughts going thru my mind.......really I was thinking am I taking Ben R. at this spot or Eli, I chose Ben narrowly.Kevin Jones.......you mentioned to take him next round......he wouldn't have lasted. Guys like Julius Jones, Thomas Jones, and Curtis Martin were all selected before I even picked in the 2nd round, I know Kevin JOnes would have been taken ahead of those guys, maybe not Julius, but close.Truely, the only guy I was thinking other than Kevin Jones there was Deuce McCallister. Thought for a bit on that one. I'm just coming off a couple leagues actually where I had Deuce M., and I was rather disappointed, so drafting so early this year I didn't want him on my team AGAIN, I live in Detroit......so I went with my man Kevin Jones.Again, thanks for your opinion, and your right, Stephen Davis will be an interesting pick for me,,,,,,,could be a wash or could be one of those picks come August, did you see in that WSL league, can you believe Stephen Davis went that late.

 
So Aaron does not believe in VBD?  Both him and Family Matters just fell into a huge trap with both QBs coming off record seasons.  They won't repeat.I hope the rest of the footballguys.com staff does not fall into this short-term reactionary way of thinking.  :thumbdown:
:sarcasm: :popcorn:
:confused:I really would like to know Aaron's basis of picking a QB coming off a career year 2nd overall? Does he think Manning will outperform a QB that he can get in round two by more than the RB available to him and the corresponding RB? Does he not think that Manning will revert to the mean, by Manning's standards an elite QB certainly, but historically valued as a late 2nd round pick?It is more likely than not that a QB not named Manning will be the #1 QB next year, let alone being valued at #2 overall.I would like to think that Aaron is just overreacting to a great season by Manning and going with his heart not his head. I find it troubling that a member of the fbg.com staff thinks it is justifiable to draft a QB #2 overall, and I would like to hear an explanation for it.This used to be the site that showed the fundamental flaw in drafting a QB early based on value. Now staff is drafting them #2 overall. Either their philosophy has changed or they are hiring people with a very different approach to fantasy football. I am not sure which is worse.
 
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So Aaron does not believe in VBD? Both him and Family Matters just fell into a huge trap with both QBs coming off record seasons. They won't repeat.I hope the rest of the footballguys.com staff does not fall into this short-term reactionary way of thinking. :thumbdown:
VBD is why I drafted Cpep. According to VBD, Cpep was the #4 overall behind LT, Manning & Alexander (and he has question marks) of which were the first 3 picks. Normally I prefer to go RB first but I decided to follow VBD for this draft.
 
So Aaron does not believe in VBD? Both him and Family Matters just fell into a huge trap with both QBs coming off record seasons. They won't repeat.I hope the rest of the footballguys.com staff does not fall into this short-term reactionary way of thinking. :thumbdown:
VBD is why I drafted Cpep. According to VBD, Cpep was the #4 overall behind LT, Manning & Alexander (and he has question marks) of which were the first 3 picks. Normally I prefer to go RB first but I decided to follow VBD for this draft.
Please post your projections. I would imagine that it is overinflating their stats due to overly aggressive projecitons based on last year alone and thus it is giving you that calculation.What baseline did you use?I actually am a bigger proponent of DVBD and think VBD has some inherant flaws in it that DVBD covers. This is why you don't draft Tony Gonzalez in the first round.
 
So Aaron does not believe in VBD?  Both him and Family Matters just fell into a huge trap with both QBs coming off record seasons.  They won't repeat.I hope the rest of the footballguys.com staff does not fall into this short-term reactionary way of thinking.  :thumbdown:
:sarcasm: :popcorn:
:confused:I really would like to know Aaron's basis of picking a QB coming off a career year 2nd overall? Does he think Manning will outperform a QB that he can get in round two by more than the RB available to him and the corresponding RB? Does he not think that Manning will revert to the mean, by Manning's standards an elite QB certainly, but historically valued as a late 2nd round pick?It is more likely than not that a QB not named Manning will be the #1 QB next year, let alone being valued at #2 overall.I would like to think that Aaron is just overreacting to a great season by Manning and going with his heart not his head. I find it troubling that a member of the fbg.com staff thinks it is justifiable to draft a QB #2 overall, and I would like to hear an explanation for it.This used to be the site that showed the fundamental flaw in drafting a QB early based on value. Now staff is drafting them #2 overall. Either their philosophy has changed or they are hiring people with a very different approach to fantasy football. I am not sure which is worse.
Another consideration is the format. In a survivor format, 16 teams and with sharks, no one will have a dominate team. Rare that anyone has a position (such as RB) that will be dominate over league. Getting consistent scoring that keeps you from being the 2 lowest scores each week is a must. Having too many byes in one week can knock you out early even if your team is loaded. If this were a H2H league most/some of us would probably draft differently.
 
QBs matter even less in Survivor format. Just look at the infamous "QB Squeeze" that the staff tried to attempt that was a total debacle, taking a 3rd QB before some people's 2nd.

 
So Aaron does not believe in VBD? Both him and Family Matters just fell into a huge trap with both QBs coming off record seasons. They won't repeat.I hope the rest of the footballguys.com staff does not fall into this short-term reactionary way of thinking. :thumbdown:
Don't worry. My QB2 - AJ FEeley - can only go up. I got him at QB33 and feasted on WRs while everyone else was taking QBs. That is the very definition of VBD!:evilLaugh: :excited: Cp;om
 
So Aaron does not believe in VBD? Both him and Family Matters just fell into a huge trap with both QBs coming off record seasons. They won't repeat.I hope the rest of the footballguys.com staff does not fall into this short-term reactionary way of thinking. :thumbdown:
Don't worry. My QB2 - AJ FEeley - can only go up. I got him at QB33 and feasted on WRs while everyone else was taking QBs. That is the very definition of VBD!:evilLaugh: :excited: Cp;om
:thumbup:
 
So Aaron does not believe in VBD?  Both him and Family Matters just fell into a huge trap with both QBs coming off record seasons.  They won't repeat.I hope the rest of the footballguys.com staff does not fall into this short-term reactionary way of thinking.  :thumbdown:
VBD is why I drafted Cpep. According to VBD, Cpep was the #4 overall behind LT, Manning & Alexander (and he has question marks) of which were the first 3 picks. Normally I prefer to go RB first but I decided to follow VBD for this draft.
Please post your projections. I would imagine that it is overinflating their stats due to overly aggressive projecitons based on last year alone and thus it is giving you that calculation.What baseline did you use?I actually am a bigger proponent of DVBD and think VBD has some inherant flaws in it that DVBD covers. This is why you don't draft Tony Gonzalez in the first round.
DVBD relies on ADP, which we don't have yet, so it's hard to use here, but I'll you dimes to donuts that Manning goes before pick 31, which would have been Aaron's next pick, so if his projections are that Manning will repeat, then he had to take him here or never get him.
 
So Aaron does not believe in VBD?  Both him and Family Matters just fell into a huge trap with both QBs coming off record seasons.  They won't repeat.I hope the rest of the footballguys.com staff does not fall into this short-term reactionary way of thinking.  :thumbdown:
VBD is why I drafted Cpep. According to VBD, Cpep was the #4 overall behind LT, Manning & Alexander (and he has question marks) of which were the first 3 picks. Normally I prefer to go RB first but I decided to follow VBD for this draft.
Please post your projections. I would imagine that it is overinflating their stats due to overly aggressive projecitons based on last year alone and thus it is giving you that calculation.What baseline did you use?I actually am a bigger proponent of DVBD and think VBD has some inherant flaws in it that DVBD covers. This is why you don't draft Tony Gonzalez in the first round.
Another flaw this early in the season is that projections are very rough, at least for me. Too many things are unknown at this time. For exmple, we don't know where FA's, UFA's and rookies are going to be playing. Will they be starters or back ups? For me, Cpep was a safe and conservative pick. In August, my 1.4 pick might be different.
 
So Aaron does not believe in VBD?  Both him and Family Matters just fell into a huge trap with both QBs coming off record seasons.  They won't repeat.

I hope the rest of the footballguys.com staff does not fall into this short-term reactionary way of thinking. 

:thumbdown:
VBD is why I drafted Cpep. According to VBD, Cpep was the #4 overall behind LT, Manning & Alexander (and he has question marks) of which were the first 3 picks. Normally I prefer to go RB first but I decided to follow VBD for this draft.
Please post your projections. I would imagine that it is overinflating their stats due to overly aggressive projecitons based on last year alone and thus it is giving you that calculation.What baseline did you use?

I actually am a bigger proponent of DVBD and think VBD has some inherant flaws in it that DVBD covers. This is why you don't draft Tony Gonzalez in the first round.
DVBD relies on ADP, which we don't have yet, so it's hard to use here, but I'll you dimes to donuts that Manning goes before pick 31, which would have been Aaron's next pick, so if his projections are that Manning will repeat, then he had to take him here or never get him.
Agree re: DVBD. You obviously could not use it without mocks. But are you telling me that Aaron is better off with Manning and whoever he took at his #2 pick or the best RB available in round 1 and another skill player?If Manning repeats, maybe, but you are banking on another monster season and giving yourself no room for error. Even if Manning throws for 30-35 TDs, this is a mistake.

 
QBs matter even less in Survivor format. Just look at the infamous "QB Squeeze" that the staff tried to attempt that was a total debacle, taking a 3rd QB before some people's 2nd.
Normally I would agree with you but not sure I agree with that in this format. Manning/Culpepper where not only the leading QB's by far but also the league in this scoring system.
 
So Aaron does not believe in VBD?  Both him and Family Matters just fell into a huge trap with both QBs coming off record seasons.  They won't repeat.I hope the rest of the footballguys.com staff does not fall into this short-term reactionary way of thinking.  :thumbdown:
VBD is why I drafted Cpep. According to VBD, Cpep was the #4 overall behind LT, Manning & Alexander (and he has question marks) of which were the first 3 picks. Normally I prefer to go RB first but I decided to follow VBD for this draft.
Please post your projections. I would imagine that it is overinflating their stats due to overly aggressive projecitons based on last year alone and thus it is giving you that calculation.What baseline did you use?I actually am a bigger proponent of DVBD and think VBD has some inherant flaws in it that DVBD covers. This is why you don't draft Tony Gonzalez in the first round.
Another flaw this early in the season is that projections are very rough, at least for me. Too many things are unknown at this time. For exmple, we don't know where FA's, UFA's and rookies are going to be playing. Will they be starters or back ups? For me, Cpep was a safe and conservative pick. In August, my 1.4 pick might be different.
I understand.
 
QBs matter even less in Survivor format. Just look at the infamous "QB Squeeze" that the staff tried to attempt that was a total debacle, taking a 3rd QB before some people's 2nd.
Normally I would agree with you but not sure I agree with that in this format. Manning/Culpepper where not only the leading QB's by far but also the league in this scoring system.
That's because they both had career years. I strongly believe that will not be repeated next year. This is a peak, not a trend.
 
It is more likely than not that a QB not named Manning will be the #1 QB next year, let alone being valued at #2 overall.
Actually, there's precedent. Look at Favre and his back to back 39 TD seasons. Warner put up silly numbers in back to back career years before falling off his pace, too. I bet Doug can and probably will come up with a study of this before the offseason's over; I'd take a stab at it but I'm busy explaining why Manning isn't really that good in another thread. :whistle:From a regular season stats perspective, keep in mind that Manning's weapons have improved, he's in his prime, and his division, with the exception of Jacksonville, has been struggling. It is likely that Manning's schedule will be harder next year, so I do expect some regression to the mean, but it's also fairly likely that Edge will be gone, and we saw what happened to Manning's stats when Edge was out a few years ago. Also keep in mind that this is a survivor draft occurring eight months before the start of the season. There's a good chance that any of the RBs taken later could be traded (Alexander), have their RBBC partner stay (McGahee), retire (Holmes), have a backup drafted in the first round (like Rudi last year), get hurt (?), etc. The chances of Manning being traded, unseated by a new rookie, getting into a QBBC, or retiring are nil. He's as safe a pick as you can get, and you can't overstate that in a draft this early.
This used to be the site that showed the fundamental flaw in drafting a QB early based on value. Now staff is drafting them #2 overall.
If Manning's value is #2 overall, then that is the ideal place to project him. You used to know stuff like this back when you were sandbagger. Then you get a shiny new member number and it's like.. like... I don't even know who you are anymore. :cry:
 
It is more likely than not that a QB not named Manning will be the #1 QB next year, let alone being valued at #2 overall.
Actually, there's precedent. Look at Favre and his back to back 39 TD seasons. Warner put up silly numbers in back to back career years before falling off his pace, too. I bet Doug can and probably will come up with a study of this before the offseason's over; I'd take a stab at it but I'm busy explaining why Manning isn't really that good in another thread. :whistle:From a regular season stats perspective, keep in mind that Manning's weapons have improved, he's in his prime, and his division, with the exception of Jacksonville, has been struggling. It is likely that Manning's schedule will be harder next year, so I do expect some regression to the mean, but it's also fairly likely that Edge will be gone, and we saw what happened to Manning's stats when Edge was out a few years ago. Also keep in mind that this is a survivor draft occurring eight months before the start of the season. There's a good chance that any of the RBs taken later could be traded (Alexander), have their RBBC partner stay (McGahee), retire (Holmes), have a backup drafted in the first round (like Rudi last year), get hurt (?), etc. The chances of Manning being traded, unseated by a new rookie, getting into a QBBC, or retiring are nil. He's as safe a pick as you can get, and you can't overstate that in a draft this early.
This used to be the site that showed the fundamental flaw in drafting a QB early based on value. Now staff is drafting them #2 overall.
If Manning's value is #2 overall, then that is the ideal place to project him. You used to know stuff like this back when you were sandbagger. Then you get a shiny new member number and it's like.. like... I don't even know who you are anymore. :cry:
:goodposting:
 
QBs matter even less in Survivor format.  Just look at the infamous "QB Squeeze" that the staff tried to attempt that was a total debacle, taking a 3rd QB before some people's 2nd.
Normally I would agree with you but not sure I agree with that in this format. Manning/Culpepper where not only the leading QB's by far but also the league in this scoring system.
That's because they both had career years. I strongly believe that will not be repeated next year. This is a peak, not a trend.
I gave that some thought and here is how I feel about it. I agree that both are far more likely to produce less than as they are the same or more. Manning more so than Cpep. But even considering that, if they perform near or a little below last year they are still the 2 best FF QB's in the game. In many leagues, Cpep was the #1, not Manning. I felt there was very little risk with these 2. When I weighed all the factors known and unknown, I liked them because of they are low risk with high reward. Another thing about Cpep I liked was he did this even though Moss had a down year. That tells me he has matured and isn't dependant on Moss for his numbers. I think many have felt he was doomed without Moss.If he has a down year he could still be top 5.
 
If this draft were to occur in August, I bet the first 2 rounds would look different.
Yes, because I would have a better idea of what team Casey Claussen will be playing for so I could go on and pick him with confidence.COlin
 
It is more likely than not that a QB not named Manning will be the #1 QB next year, let alone being valued at #2 overall.
Actually, there's precedent. Look at Favre and his back to back 39 TD seasons. Warner put up silly numbers in back to back career years before falling off his pace, too. I bet Doug can and probably will come up with a study of this before the offseason's over; I'd take a stab at it but I'm busy explaining why Manning isn't really that good in another thread. :whistle: From a regular season stats perspective, keep in mind that Manning's weapons have improved, he's in his prime, and his division, with the exception of Jacksonville, has been struggling. It is likely that Manning's schedule will be harder next year, so I do expect some regression to the mean, but it's also fairly likely that Edge will be gone, and we saw what happened to Manning's stats when Edge was out a few years ago.

Also keep in mind that this is a survivor draft occurring eight months before the start of the season. There's a good chance that any of the RBs taken later could be traded (Alexander), have their RBBC partner stay (McGahee), retire (Holmes), have a backup drafted in the first round (like Rudi last year), get hurt (?), etc. The chances of Manning being traded, unseated by a new rookie, getting into a QBBC, or retiring are nil. He's as safe a pick as you can get, and you can't overstate that in a draft this early.

This used to be the site that showed the fundamental flaw in drafting a QB early based on value.  Now staff is drafting them #2 overall. 
If Manning's value is #2 overall, then that is the ideal place to project him. You used to know stuff like this back when you were sandbagger. Then you get a shiny new member number and it's like.. like... I don't even know who you are anymore. :cry:
I never said there wasn't precedent. Yes Favre had 39 one year. Did he ever do it again? Yes Warner has two great back to back years. Then what?This is not a repeatable feat, or when it is done, is a miracle.

Don't try to tell me that the #2 RB you pick is going to have questions. You have a clear cut guy that will not be in a RBBC situation. RBs late in the first round might (see Travis Henry of last year), but not RBs in the first two picks.

By Manning's value being #2 overall that does not mean that is the place to project him. Look at any number of sharks who ask why Gonzalez is rated in the top 5 of a scoring system but is not recommended to be drafted there. It's because you can get value in the first and second rounds since he is not drafted there. And if he is, then that person is relying on a record breaking season from him, much like Aaron is doing. That's the fundamental concept of VBD. It is not a draft cheatsheet! It informs you of value and then you figure out from there where the best place to draft someone is.

Saying that Aaron had him at #2 overall value so that's where he should draft him is lazy drafting, and will leave a lot of value on the table at the end of the day. You want to maximize value in a draft. Drafting off a VBD cheatsheet does not do this, pure and simple.

 
QBs matter even less in Survivor format.  Just look at the infamous "QB Squeeze" that the staff tried to attempt that was a total debacle, taking a 3rd QB before some people's 2nd.
Normally I would agree with you but not sure I agree with that in this format. Manning/Culpepper where not only the leading QB's by far but also the league in this scoring system.
That's because they both had career years. I strongly believe that will not be repeated next year. This is a peak, not a trend.
I gave that some thought and here is how I feel about it. I agree that both are far more likely to produce less than as they are the same or more. Manning more so than Cpep. But even considering that, if they perform near or a little below last year they are still the 2 best FF QB's in the game. In many leagues, Cpep was the #1, not Manning. I felt there was very little risk with these 2. When I weighed all the factors known and unknown, I liked them because of they are low risk with high reward. Another thing about Cpep I liked was he did this even though Moss had a down year. That tells me he has matured and isn't dependant on Moss for his numbers. I think many have felt he was doomed without Moss.If he has a down year he could still be top 5.
Who cares if he is a top 5 QB? That doesn't justify a #4 slot in the first round. What justifies that is the point differential you get between CPep in the 4 slot and the 4th or 5th best QB and the best RB you could get in round one and the next best RB you could get in round 2.I will guarantee you, you get more value drafting a RB there.
 
I didn't even see that rudnicki followed up his 2nd pick with a rookie. I mean if you are going to make a pick like Peyton and need to grab a RB in round 2, at least get one that has more than 0 career rushing yards. :no:

 
Would you rather have Shaun Alexander and Michael Vick, or Peyton Manning and Cedric Benson?Unbelievable.

 
I never said there wasn't precedent. Yes Favre had 39 one year. Did he ever do it again? Yes Warner has two great back to back years. Then what?
Favre had 39 twice. Or maybe once it was 38. But it was way up there compared to his contemporaries who were struggling to get 20. It's similar. And the year Warner was getting taken in the top 5, it was justifiable. VBD is not a treatise on taking QBs late, it's a way of describing the value of players across positions. Manning clearly had a lot of value this (regular) season, and for the reasons I described (and more), is likely to have value next (regular) season.
This is not a repeatable feat, or when it is done, is a miracle.

Don't try to tell me that the #2 RB you pick is going to have questions. You have a clear cut guy that will not be in a RBBC situation. RBs late in the first round might (see Travis Henry of last year), but not RBs in the first two picks.
OK, tell me which RB you would have taken #2 overall, and show that he does not have questions associated with him.
By Manning's value being #2 overall that does not mean that is the place to project him. Look at any number of sharks who ask why Gonzalez is rated in the top 5 of a scoring system but is not recommended to be drafted there. It's because you can get value in the first and second rounds since he is not drafted there. And if he is, then that person is relying on a record breaking season from him, much like Aaron is doing. That's the fundamental concept of VBD. It is not a draft cheatsheet! It informs you of value and then you figure out from there where the best place to draft someone is.
I agree.
Saying that Aaron had him at #2 overall value so that's where he should draft him is lazy drafting, and will leave a lot of value on the table at the end of the day. You want to maximize value in a draft. Drafting off a VBD cheatsheet does not do this, pure and simple.
Do you think he would have gotten Manning in the second round? Remember that they're not allowed to trade picks. How many of the teams that had Manning and Culpepper this year made the top 8 teams in the MB vs Staff league, or the final four in SII and SOSII?

 
Would you rather have Shaun Alexander and Michael Vick, or Peyton Manning and Cedric Benson?Unbelievable.
Yeah, that sucked. But Aaron may be counting on it either coming back to look like genius in the fall, or saying "Well, you can't really draft in January and expect it to mean anything".
 
I have never stated that VBD means to take RBs early or QBs late. Value is what it is. And it is not Manning with the 2nd pick.I would have taken Alexander at #2 and best available in the second round.Like I said earlier, who would you want on your team?Vick and Alexander, or Peyton and Benson.A draft is a series of interrelated picks that effect not only your subsequent pick, but two or three down the road.

 
Would you rather have Shaun Alexander and Michael Vick, or Peyton Manning and Cedric Benson?Unbelievable.
Yeah, that sucked. But Aaron may be counting on it either coming back to look like genius in the fall, or saying "Well, you can't really draft in January and expect it to mean anything".
Hey, if this is just a draft for the fun of it, then fine. You can justify those picks as going out on a limb and taking a risk and stating this is not what you would do in a normal draft.That would at least give some credence for some of these picks. If this is serious, I would like to know the thought process. Because it is baffling to me in the first five rounds taking a QB, 2 rookie RBs, and a WR.
 
So Aaron does not believe in VBD?  Both him and Family Matters just fell into a huge trap with both QBs coming off record seasons.  They won't repeat.I hope the rest of the footballguys.com staff does not fall into this short-term reactionary way of thinking. 

:thumbdown:
:sarcasm:

:popcorn:
:confused:

I really would like to know Aaron's basis of picking a QB coming off a career year 2nd overall? Does he think Manning will outperform a QB that he can get in round two by more than the RB available to him and the corresponding RB? Does he not think that Manning will revert to the mean, by Manning's standards an elite QB certainly, but historically valued as a late 2nd round pick?

It is more likely than not that a QB not named Manning will be the #1 QB next year, let alone being valued at #2 overall.

I would like to think that Aaron is just overreacting to a great season by Manning and going with his heart not his head. I find it troubling that a member of the fbg.com staff thinks it is justifiable to draft a QB #2 overall, and I would like to hear an explanation for it.

This used to be the site that showed the fundamental flaw in drafting a QB early based on value. Now staff is drafting them #2 overall. Either their philosophy has changed or they are hiring people with a very different approach to fantasy football.

I am not sure which is worse.

my rationale for the pick is provided in the initial draft thread. it's all about avoiding risk and when drafting 9 months before the season starts, a QB like Manning is the safest possible pick.

I believe any RB I draft at that spot has a MUCH higher chance of being injured than Manning.

And, if you look at Manning's VBD numbers from last year in a 6pt/pass TD league, the pick was warranted, IMO.

btw, what's the longest you've ever lasted in a survivor league anyway?

:popcorn:

 
So Aaron does not believe in VBD?  Both him and Family Matters just fell into a huge trap with both QBs coming off record seasons.  They won't repeat.I hope the rest of the footballguys.com staff does not fall into this short-term reactionary way of thinking. 

:thumbdown:
:sarcasm:

:popcorn:
:confused:

I really would like to know Aaron's basis of picking a QB coming off a career year 2nd overall? Does he think Manning will outperform a QB that he can get in round two by more than the RB available to him and the corresponding RB? Does he not think that Manning will revert to the mean, by Manning's standards an elite QB certainly, but historically valued as a late 2nd round pick?

It is more likely than not that a QB not named Manning will be the #1 QB next year, let alone being valued at #2 overall.

I would like to think that Aaron is just overreacting to a great season by Manning and going with his heart not his head. I find it troubling that a member of the fbg.com staff thinks it is justifiable to draft a QB #2 overall, and I would like to hear an explanation for it.

This used to be the site that showed the fundamental flaw in drafting a QB early based on value. Now staff is drafting them #2 overall. Either their philosophy has changed or they are hiring people with a very different approach to fantasy football.

I am not sure which is worse.
my rationale for the pick is provided in the initial draft thread. it's all about avoiding risk and when drafting 9 months before the season starts, a QB like Manning is the safest possible pick.

I believe any RB I draft at that spot has a MUCH higher chance of being injured than Manning.

And, if you look at Manning's VBD numbers from last year in a 6pt/pass TD league, the pick was warranted, IMO.

btw, what's the longest you've ever lasted in a survivor league anyway?

:popcorn:

I was going to give Arron the thumbs up until I saw this.

League Results:

GregR - 175.20 (Receives week 3 Amnesty)

RIL - 160.46

Gatorman - 150.62

Cobalt Cruisin' - 142.10

LHUCKS - 140.16

BostonFred - 135.62

Bueno - 123.74

BassNBrew - 118.78

Purplehaze - 117.78

Marc Levin - 116.82

Sandbagger - 113.60 (Booted Week 2)

Aaron Rudnicki - (Booted Off Week 1)

 
In a 4pt/pass TD system, Manning scored 150 points more than the 12th ranked QB (Michael Vick), giving him a VBD value of 150. That ranked #2 overall behind Daunte Culpepper.If you change it to a 6pt/pass TD system, I'm guessing that makes Manning even more valuable.Then, when you factor in that we are drafting 9 months before the season starts, it makes sure things that much more valuable.Why should I risk the #2 pick on a RB like Holmes (coming off injury), Alexander (pending FA), or McAllister/Portis/Green (weren't even a top-10 RB this year) when I can guarantee 400+ points and 15 starts from my QB spot? Those RBs have a much higher chance of suffering an injury in the preseason, thus ruining any chance of success.As has been said often, you can't win your league with your 1st round pick, but you sure can lose it.I don't want to get stuck with the next Ricky Williams or a RB who suffers a torn ACL in training camp. Manning is the epitome of a risk-free pick, and minimizing risk is integral to any strong survivor draft.
I posted that immediately after my pick. There are 2 main reasons for this pick:#1 The time of the draft: I've never participated in a draft in January before so I don't have a very good sense of what type of risk is acceptable or not. There are so many question marks surrounding players going into next season at this point, that I wanted to draft the safest player possible with this early of a pick because I knew the talent would drop off considerably by the time my #31 pick rolled around.#2 The fact that this is a survivor draft where rosters are frozen and lowest score gets eliminated. In a league like this, I try to avoid high-risk/high-reward players as much as possible. Thus, Manning represented the safest possible pick on the board, and his VBD numbers from 2004 suggested that it was not ridiculous to take him this high.He may not throw 49TDs again, but I believe strongly that he'll reach 40. He plays in a dome and the passing weapons he has at his disposal are just too good to ignore. I also believe there is practically no chance that he'll get injured or benched. I could not say the same about any other players out there.Believe me, I WANTED to take a RB. I really, truly did, and I would have if the #1 and #2 reasons I listed above were not true. But, when faced with the decision, I didn't believe any of the other RBs deserved to go that high. I just didn't feel comfortable with any of them, other than McGahee, and I wasn't a big enough homer to take that leap.
 
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So Aaron does not believe in VBD? Both him and Family Matters just fell into a huge trap with both QBs coming off record seasons. They won't repeat.I hope the rest of the footballguys.com staff does not fall into this short-term reactionary way of thinking.

:thumbdown:
:sarcasm:

:popcorn:
:confused:

I really would like to know Aaron's basis of picking a QB coming off a career year 2nd overall? Does he think Manning will outperform a QB that he can get in round two by more than the RB available to him and the corresponding RB? Does he not think that Manning will revert to the mean, by Manning's standards an elite QB certainly, but historically valued as a late 2nd round pick?

It is more likely than not that a QB not named Manning will be the #1 QB next year, let alone being valued at #2 overall.

I would like to think that Aaron is just overreacting to a great season by Manning and going with his heart not his head. I find it troubling that a member of the fbg.com staff thinks it is justifiable to draft a QB #2 overall, and I would like to hear an explanation for it.

This used to be the site that showed the fundamental flaw in drafting a QB early based on value. Now staff is drafting them #2 overall. Either their philosophy has changed or they are hiring people with a very different approach to fantasy football.

I am not sure which is worse.
my rationale for the pick is provided in the initial draft thread. it's all about avoiding risk and when drafting 9 months before the season starts, a QB like Manning is the safest possible pick.

I believe any RB I draft at that spot has a MUCH higher chance of being injured than Manning.

And, if you look at Manning's VBD numbers from last year in a 6pt/pass TD league, the pick was warranted, IMO.

btw, what's the longest you've ever lasted in a survivor league anyway?

:popcorn:
I was going to give Arron the thumbs up until I saw this.

League Results:

GregR - 175.20 (Receives week 3 Amnesty)

RIL - 160.46

Gatorman - 150.62

Cobalt Cruisin' - 142.10

LHUCKS - 140.16

BostonFred - 135.62

Bueno - 123.74

BassNBrew - 118.78

Purplehaze - 117.78

Marc Levin - 116.82

Sandbagger - 113.60 (Booted Week 2)

Aaron Rudnicki - (Booted Off Week 1)

:confused:

Those aren't the accurate results.

 
I was going to give Arron the thumbs up until I saw this.League Results:Sandbagger - 113.60 (Booted Week 2)Aaron Rudnicki - (Booted Off Week 1)
funny that you show a result that has sandbagger exiting in week 2. that may have been his best survivor league yet. My early exit there definitely sucked, but my team rebounded to finish the year ranked #5 in total points while bagger's wound up ranked #11.A look at some other leagues would show:Staff vs MB:Aaron Rudnicki (Finished in 3rd place out of 24 teams)Sandbagger (Booted off Week 1)Survivor II 2004:Aaron Rudnicki (Finished in 2nd place out of 12 teams)Sandbagger (Not invited based on poor performance in 2003)Survivor II 2003:Aaron Rudnicki (Finished in the top 5)Sandbagger (Yet another early exit)
 
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I was going to give Arron the thumbs up until I saw this.League Results:Sandbagger - 113.60 (Booted Week 2)Aaron Rudnicki - (Booted Off Week 1)
funny that you show a result that has sandbagger exiting in week 2. that may have been his best survivor league yet. My early exit there definitely sucked, but my team rebounded to finish the year ranked #5 in total points while bagger's wound up ranked #11.A look at some other leagues would show:Staff vs MB:Aaron Rudnicki (Finished in 3rd place out of 24 teams)Sandbagger (Booted off Week 1)Survivor II 2004:Aaron Rudnicki (Finished in 2nd place out of 12 teams)Sandbagger (Not invited based on poor performance in 2003)Survivor II 2003:Aaron Rudnicki (Finished in the top 5)Sandbagger (Yet another early exit)
I knew he got booted early in that league...I had forgotten that you did too. My initial thought was to cover your back.
 
So Aaron does not believe in VBD? Both him and Family Matters just fell into a huge trap with both QBs coming off record seasons. They won't repeat.I hope the rest of the footballguys.com staff does not fall into this short-term reactionary way of thinking.

:thumbdown:
:sarcasm:

:popcorn:
:confused:

I really would like to know Aaron's basis of picking a QB coming off a career year 2nd overall? Does he think Manning will outperform a QB that he can get in round two by more than the RB available to him and the corresponding RB? Does he not think that Manning will revert to the mean, by Manning's standards an elite QB certainly, but historically valued as a late 2nd round pick?

It is more likely than not that a QB not named Manning will be the #1 QB next year, let alone being valued at #2 overall.

I would like to think that Aaron is just overreacting to a great season by Manning and going with his heart not his head. I find it troubling that a member of the fbg.com staff thinks it is justifiable to draft a QB #2 overall, and I would like to hear an explanation for it.

This used to be the site that showed the fundamental flaw in drafting a QB early based on value. Now staff is drafting them #2 overall. Either their philosophy has changed or they are hiring people with a very different approach to fantasy football.

I am not sure which is worse.
my rationale for the pick is provided in the initial draft thread. it's all about avoiding risk and when drafting 9 months before the season starts, a QB like Manning is the safest possible pick.

I believe any RB I draft at that spot has a MUCH higher chance of being injured than Manning.

And, if you look at Manning's VBD numbers from last year in a 6pt/pass TD league, the pick was warranted, IMO.

btw, what's the longest you've ever lasted in a survivor league anyway?

:popcorn:
I was going to give Arron the thumbs up until I saw this.

League Results:

GregR - 175.20 (Receives week 3 Amnesty)

RIL - 160.46

Gatorman - 150.62

Cobalt Cruisin' - 142.10

LHUCKS - 140.16

BostonFred - 135.62

Bueno - 123.74

BassNBrew - 118.78

Purplehaze - 117.78

Marc Levin - 116.82

Sandbagger - 113.60 (Booted Week 2)

Aaron Rudnicki - (Booted Off Week 1)
:confused:

Those aren't the accurate results.

Per the website for week 3 they are.

 
Would you rather have Shaun Alexander and Michael Vick, or Peyton Manning and Cedric Benson?Unbelievable.
I had no way of knowing that my best RB option available at #31 was going to be Cedric Benson. I took a chance and hoped that a better option would slide to me, but that didn't happen. Of the RBs left, I wanted Dunn and Benson, and wound up with both so I'm cool with it. By also drafting Cadillac later, I feel I have a better than average chance at obtaining 3 starting RBs, which would be huge after going QB in the 1st round. After taking the safe pick in Manning, I felt more comfortable taking some risks at the RB spot as well.Also, Shaun Alexander is a FA, as is Walter Jones and I think there's a very good chance that one or both of them are not back in Seattle. If Alexander winds up running behind the Dolphins offensive line and Cedric Benson winds up in Oakland, then you better believe I prefer Peyton and Cedric.If I can help it, Vick will never be on another of my fantasy teams. He may be one of the worst survivor QBs I can imagine. Too many low scoring weeks (especially in a 6pt/passTD league) and too much injury risk.The only other RB options I would have seriously considered were Priest Holmes and Willis McGahee.Anyway, I mainly wanted to try something different. In a 16-team survivor league, I believe getting points from Peyton every single week will be more valuable than hoping that a top notch RB comes through. Most teams who exit early in survivor leagues do so because the RB they drafted in the 1st round has an off week. Especially in these 16-teamers, I've seen plenty of teams survive for awhile with 1 or fewer legit RBs. It is much harder to get by without strong QB and WR play, and I think my team will have that. I'm very interested to see how this plays out, so consider this an experiment. But, I probably wouldn't even consider drafting a QB this high in a later draft or in a H2H league.HTH
 
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In a 4pt/pass TD system, Manning scored 150 points more than the 12th ranked QB (Michael Vick), giving him a VBD value of 150. That ranked #2 overall behind Daunte Culpepper.If you change it to a 6pt/pass TD system, I'm guessing that makes Manning even more valuable.Then, when you factor in that we are drafting 9 months before the season starts, it makes sure things that much more valuable.Why should I risk the #2 pick on a RB like Holmes (coming off injury), Alexander (pending FA), or McAllister/Portis/Green (weren't even a top-10 RB this year) when I can guarantee 400+ points and 15 starts from my QB spot? Those RBs have a much higher chance of suffering an injury in the preseason, thus ruining any chance of success.As has been said often, you can't win your league with your 1st round pick, but you sure can lose it.I don't want to get stuck with the next Ricky Williams or a RB who suffers a torn ACL in training camp. Manning is the epitome of a risk-free pick, and minimizing risk is integral to any strong survivor draft.
I posted that immediately after my pick. There are 2 main reasons for this pick:#1 The time of the draft: I've never participated in a draft in January before so I don't have a very good sense of what type of risk is acceptable or not. There are so many question marks surrounding players going into next season at this point, that I wanted to draft the safest player possible with this early of a pick because I knew the talent would drop off considerably by the time my #31 pick rolled around.#2 The fact that this is a survivor draft where rosters are frozen and lowest score gets eliminated. In a league like this, I try to avoid high-risk/high-reward players as much as possible. Thus, Manning represented the safest possible pick on the board, and his VBD numbers from 2004 suggested that it was not ridiculous to take him this high.He may not throw 49TDs again, but I believe strongly that he'll reach 40. He plays in a dome and the passing weapons he has at his disposal are just too good to ignore. I also believe there is practically no chance that he'll get injured or benched. I could not say the same about any other players out there.Believe me, I WANTED to take a RB. I really, truly did, and I would have if the #1 and #2 reasons I listed above were not true. But, when faced with the decision, I didn't believe any of the other RBs deserved to go that high. I just didn't feel comfortable with any of them, other than McGahee, and I wasn't a big enough homer to take that leap.
FYI-all TD's are 6 points thus increasing the QB value. :thumbup:
 
hypothetical question:Go back to last August. Pretend that you have the same amount of knowledge you had back then, except you know EXACTLY how Manning is going to do.where do you draft him?

 
hypothetical question:Go back to last August. Pretend that you have the same amount of knowledge you had back then, except you know EXACTLY how Manning is going to do.where do you draft him?
I would not wait past 8. Assumming I am the only one that knows this, I would not be willing to risk him slipping past me. I would kick myself. Takeing that 1 step further, it depends on what pick I have. Let's asy I have the 1st. Would Istill do it then? Yes. That's hard to pass up despite my desire for RB depth.
 
A comment on my Maurice Morris pick in the 10th round. I was hoping that Alexander would go to another team via FA. That leaves them with Morris or a FA or rookie. Morris will likely be given the chance to win the job depending on what the other RB costs them. Seems like a reasonable risk to the potential reward.

 
My thoughts:

1.12 Iwannabeacowboybaby - RB Kevin Jones - too early...should be very good but would rather take him next round1.15 Fiddles - RB Julius Jones - good
Could you please explain to me why Kevin Jones is a risk at 1.12 but Julius Jones is good at 1.15? KJ outperformed JJ over the course of the year on an offense that was just as bad and in some ways worse than the Cowboys offense. The Lions have been producing questionable RBs for a while now and they finally seem to have found someone who can play there. The Lions also have arguably less holes to fill on offense (and overall) than the Cowboys do for 2005. I think KJ should always be going ahead of JJ in the drafts.Onward...Round 1:I can understand the appeal of a Manning or Culpepper in a survivor, but I'll stick to my guns and never draft a QB in the first round unless it's some really oddball (by today's standards) scoring league.I'm surprised at the lack of Tiki Barber hate myself. Is that what you do LHUCKS, make picks that are sure to divide people so the ones you get right are more memorable? I have no particular complaint about Tiki there over Ahman, Jamal and a lot of the usual suspects, but I am interested in why you took him over Edge. I assume it's a PPR thing, but there may be more to it. Based on the most recent news, Edge WILL be back in Indy franchise tag or otherwise and had a year on par with his top finishing 1999, 2000 seasons despite all the cries of Manning is selfish, Manning is racist etc etc.I'm as big of a Dom Davis supporter as you'll find, and seeing him go 1.08 over Kevin Jones is a travesty if you ask me.McGahee is going too high.Round 2:2.02 Thomas Jones still continues to be drafted on hype and not on field performance. This guy's support in the FF world is unreal. I just don't get the appeal for this guy. It's like a cult that continues to suck more members in every year.2.04 Rudi Johnson should be going in the first round. All the pre-season talk about how bad they would be, the schedule was too tough, he'd bust etc etc. Well he finished 8th overall in RB scoring. I think his value might be supressed right now because of his contract status, but if/when he re-signs with Cincy, he should be a first rounder.2.10 Steven Jackson could have a HUGE year in 2005. It's a wait and see for the Rams o-line and if Faulk retires.I've already said my piece about Lee Suggs.2.13 Tatum Bell. Good luck with that. I just don't see the value.2.15 Cedric Benson is where things start getting weird. We don't even know what team he's going to yet, but he could be a top RB for 2005. You better hope he either lands in a dream situation (Oakland) or the rest of your team can carry his early dead weight. I was about to lambast you for passing on Dunn for Benson, but you picked him on the turnaround. ;) Trent Green at the end of the 2nd round, finally getting some love. Shame it's about 3 seasons too late now.Round 3:Can someone fire Fiddles from this draft? His first 3 picks are Julius Jones, Thomas Jones and Jake Delhomme.3.12 Marc Bulger.. I like the kid, and he's put up the numbers to justify his ADP however I consider him a huge risk for 2005 for reasons most don't see atm.Round 4:4.07 DeShaun Foster in a 12 team 4.07 ADP has no value. Of course in a 16 team, he's okay, but I'll still be avoiding him at this spot (especially with better options still on the board).Round 5:5.02 Derrick Mason = value meal. I'm glad he went over Drew Bennett, I was expecting then to have about 1-2 rounds ADP seperation.Round 5 is a really good one in fact. All you guys who picked QBs early are gonna feel silly when half the guys from this round blow up and you coulda waited to get one. I see nothing but good things ahead for Ben R, Carson Palmer and Chad Pennington. McNair (salary, cheap good backup option) and Favre (sucks) I'm less bullish on, but you can't knock the picks. The WRs taken here look great. The first Panthers WR taken and it's... Steve Smith. I'm mildly surprised, although I'm not knocking the pick.Round 6:Good value in round 6 with Burress. There's about a 40 pick difference between him and Ward in this draft. The hype that was around him last year seems to be less prevalent now, and his ADP seems ripe for the picking. Round 6 WRs look more risky than the round 5 ones, but I like the Clayton and Driver picks. When it comes to two good WRs on the same team who both have put up numbers, I find taking the grossly undervalued one is the best play. That's the case with Ward/Burress and Walker/Driver in this round.Round 7:I won't be taking Jerry Porter over Ronald Curry if they land on the same team next year. Pickings are really slim here but Lee Evans seems way out of place. He shoulda went higher. Good value for him. Of course, the uncertainty at the QB position lowers things a bit. Marshall Faulk taken outside the top 100, say it ain't so!Round 8:So this is how far Charles Rogers is gonna fall in 2005? Yeah I'd take a flyer on him in the 100s this year. That's definitely undervalued, but he definitely has the caveat emptor label attached to him. Lots of good speculative WRs being taken here, Branch (undervalued), Bryant, McCareins, Curry.Round 9:Mild surprise Keary Colbert has fallen this far. Depending on how things end up in Carolina, this could be a huge steal. Same for A-Train who could have a starting gig in 2005. A starting 1,000 yard RB taken at pick #128? Imagine that.The rest isn't really worth commenting on.SOD's (so far).1.07: Priest Holmes (RB #5 finished 12th)2.04: Rudi Johnson (RB #17 finished 8th)3.04: Chad Johnson (WR #4 finished 9th... at least a steal because of the risky RBs taken ahead of him)3.14: Joe Horn (WR #8 finished 3rd)5.02: Derrick Mason (WR #14 finished 17th. People in such a hurry to draft sleepers and rookie RBs, they forgot there were players already in the league who can perform) 5.11: Chad Pennington (QB #18 finished 22nd. Will be my Trent Green (aka on all my teams) for 2005 if his ADP stays this low)6.01: Michael Clayton (WR #18 finished 13th... Gruden is the Shanahan for QBs and WRs)6.08: Muhsin Muhammad (WR #25 finished 1st... When was the last time a #1 WR was ranked 25th the next year?)6.12: Plaxico Burress (WR #26 finished 43rd... Be great if he was picked #43, but stands head and shoulders (literally) above the other WRs in this round)6.13: Donald Driver (WR #27 finished 10th... finishes 10th 2 of the last 3 seasons and is going 27th overall...okay...)7.02: Rod Smith (WR #31 finished 15th... See Horn, Joe and other WRs who refuse to go away. Going after Lelie so there's value just in that).7.12: Lee Evans (WR #33 finished 24th... When was the last time we had so many rookie WRs in the top 24?)8.02: Charles Rogers (WR #36 DNP... 1st round talent just waiting for his big break... )8.04: Ronald Curry (WR #37 finished 39th... I hope that 1 handed catch in the snow is something he can start to do every week)8.11: Deion Branch (WR #41 finished 58th... Overall numbers aren't impressive, but that offense is and if he can get a nice share of the pie in 2005...)9.05: Anthony Thomas (RB #48 finished 48th.. it's unconscionable he was taken AFTER Shipp)9.14: Nick Goings (RB #51 finished 22nd... he'll at least compete for a starting job in 2005 and being picked as the #51 RB when you might win the job outright or at least RBBC for the season can't be bad)
 
Is that what you do LHUCKS, make picks that are sure to divide people so the ones you get right are more memorable? I have no particular complaint about Tiki there over Ahman, Jamal and a lot of the usual suspects, but I am interested in why you took him over Edge. I assume it's a PPR thing...
I took Barber over Edge mostly because I'm weary of Edge's production after he takes in his next signing bonus. Edge isn't in it for the love of the game, it's a business for him. That is obviously a very qualititive approach to him specifically...an approach which I believe is undervalued in the ff community.I picked him as undervalued(as many know) before 2004 because it was a contract year.In 2005 I see him as risky with respect to a mid-first round price tag...no thanks. I'll take Tiki who is probably the second least risky RB in ff IMHO.In terms of your implication that I seek messageboard controversey and/or attention, you are correct to an extent. I make statements to encourage messageboard discussion. Part of the allure of the Tiki pick was that it might provoke a little thought. But don't get me wrong, I'm in this draft to win it and have drafted accordingly.
 
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8.11: Deion Branch (WR #41 finished 58th... Overall numbers aren't impressive, but that offense is and if he can get a nice share of the pie in 2005...)
Nice breakdown Knowledge and thanks for taking the time to do it. I agree with about 75% of your takes across the board. I know you liked the Branch pick, but keep in mind that he only played in 9 games last year also. He'll be a top 25 wide receiver at a minimum in '05.
 
8.11: Deion Branch (WR #41 finished 58th... Overall numbers aren't impressive, but that offense is and if he can get a nice share of the pie in 2005...)
Nice breakdown Knowledge and thanks for taking the time to do it. I agree with about 75% of your takes across the board. I know you liked the Branch pick, but keep in mind that he only played in 9 games last year also. He'll be a top 25 wide receiver at a minimum in '05.
Yep...I enjoyed the breakdown as well. :thumbup:
 
So Aaron does not believe in VBD?  Both him and Family Matters just fell into a huge trap with both QBs coming off record seasons.  They won't repeat.I hope the rest of the footballguys.com staff does not fall into this short-term reactionary way of thinking. 

:thumbdown:
:sarcasm:

:popcorn:
:confused:

I really would like to know Aaron's basis of picking a QB coming off a career year 2nd overall? Does he think Manning will outperform a QB that he can get in round two by more than the RB available to him and the corresponding RB? Does he not think that Manning will revert to the mean, by Manning's standards an elite QB certainly, but historically valued as a late 2nd round pick?

It is more likely than not that a QB not named Manning will be the #1 QB next year, let alone being valued at #2 overall.

I would like to think that Aaron is just overreacting to a great season by Manning and going with his heart not his head. I find it troubling that a member of the fbg.com staff thinks it is justifiable to draft a QB #2 overall, and I would like to hear an explanation for it.

This used to be the site that showed the fundamental flaw in drafting a QB early based on value. Now staff is drafting them #2 overall. Either their philosophy has changed or they are hiring people with a very different approach to fantasy football.

I am not sure which is worse.
my rationale for the pick is provided in the initial draft thread. it's all about avoiding risk and when drafting 9 months before the season starts, a QB like Manning is the safest possible pick.

I believe any RB I draft at that spot has a MUCH higher chance of being injured than Manning.

And, if you look at Manning's VBD numbers from last year in a 6pt/pass TD league, the pick was warranted, IMO.

btw, what's the longest you've ever lasted in a survivor league anyway?

:popcorn:

I'm not sure how you can predict that Manning is less injury prone than Shaun Alexander. Manning has never missed a game, but either has Alexander. Alexander is also younger. To me, that rationale is flawed.

Yes, I know that if you took Manning's numbers from last year you get a VBD that justifies this. There are two problems with this. One, VBD is not a cheatsheet. You'd hope Joe B would at least ensure that his staff know this before hiring them. Two, he had an all-time record year and he will revert to the mean. He will be lucky to get 40 TDs next year. This right there makes picking a QB at #2 a bad decision.

Re: my survivor status, I don't know offhand. I do know that I am getting a $30 check for the message board group beating the staff. That's all that matters to me.

:rotflmao:

 
So Aaron does not believe in VBD?  Both him and Family Matters just fell into a huge trap with both QBs coming off record seasons.  They won't repeat.I hope the rest of the footballguys.com staff does not fall into this short-term reactionary way of thinking. 

:thumbdown:
:sarcasm:

:popcorn:
:confused:

I really would like to know Aaron's basis of picking a QB coming off a career year 2nd overall? Does he think Manning will outperform a QB that he can get in round two by more than the RB available to him and the corresponding RB? Does he not think that Manning will revert to the mean, by Manning's standards an elite QB certainly, but historically valued as a late 2nd round pick?

It is more likely than not that a QB not named Manning will be the #1 QB next year, let alone being valued at #2 overall.

I would like to think that Aaron is just overreacting to a great season by Manning and going with his heart not his head. I find it troubling that a member of the fbg.com staff thinks it is justifiable to draft a QB #2 overall, and I would like to hear an explanation for it.

This used to be the site that showed the fundamental flaw in drafting a QB early based on value. Now staff is drafting them #2 overall. Either their philosophy has changed or they are hiring people with a very different approach to fantasy football.

I am not sure which is worse.
my rationale for the pick is provided in the initial draft thread. it's all about avoiding risk and when drafting 9 months before the season starts, a QB like Manning is the safest possible pick.

I believe any RB I draft at that spot has a MUCH higher chance of being injured than Manning.

And, if you look at Manning's VBD numbers from last year in a 6pt/pass TD league, the pick was warranted, IMO.

btw, what's the longest you've ever lasted in a survivor league anyway?

:popcorn:
I was going to give Arron the thumbs up until I saw this.

League Results:

GregR - 175.20 (Receives week 3 Amnesty)

RIL - 160.46

Gatorman - 150.62

Cobalt Cruisin' - 142.10

LHUCKS - 140.16

BostonFred - 135.62

Bueno - 123.74

BassNBrew - 118.78

Purplehaze - 117.78

Marc Levin - 116.82

Sandbagger - 113.60 (Booted Week 2)

Aaron Rudnicki - (Booted Off Week 1)

:rotflmao:

if I was LHUCKS, I would say I "beat" Aaron...but in reality I was just the second biggest loser.

 

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