I respect your opinions bagger as you have proven over the years to be knowledgable, but dude...what's with all the angst?
What angst?Divergent opinions is what used to make this site run.
In this thread I have not insulted anyone nor have I questioned their fantasy football acumen, something that I have not received in return.
I hope that as this site matures, groupthink does not take over and any dissenting view is dismissed. A lot of value would be lost.
BTW, does anyone else notice the irony here?First, bagger criticizes me for not taking a RB early, for ignoring the principles of VBD, and for drafting differently than other staff members and owners of the site.
Then, within the same thread, he says that differing opinions are what make this site run and should be encouraged.
To me, the idea that you must ALWAYS take a RB in round 1 no matter what type of league or when you are drafting is more indicative of groupthink taking over. Obviously, I could have taken the obvious path and drafted Priest Holmes or Shaun Alexander, etc. and avoided criticism. Instead, given the parameters of the league that I outlined earlier in this thread, I decided to try a different strategy. We'll have to just wait and see how it works out.
Another key point in defense of the Manning selection:
His "career year" just happened to coincide with the league's decision to emphasize the 5yd contact rule. I assume that emphasis will continue in the 2005 season, and thus there is good reason to believe that Manning's production in future years will be closer to his 2004 season (49TDs) than to his 1998-2003 average (28TDs/year).
I would actually be surprised if he doesn't throw 40 TDs next year. He's clearly in his prime and has everything going for him these days (great WRs, wide open offensive system, playcalling autonomy in the red zone).
Regression to the mean is certainly an important concept to keep in mind when projecting players, but I believe it is more appropriate for a player who dramatically exceeds expectations (i.e., Drew Brees this year) than a player like Manning. Even though Manning certainly exceeded expectations this year, I don't think there's anybody out there who wouldn't have picked him as the player most likely to break Marino's record. Factor in the emergence of Wayne and Stokely and the new rules emphasis and it is even less shocking.
If you made a habit of avoiding players coming off career years in the past, you would have missed out on the following years:
27 TD season by Priest Holmes in 2003
37 TD season by Jeff Garcia in 2001
21 TD season by Marshall Faulk in 2001
18 TD season by Edgerrin James in 2000
39 TD season by Brett Favre in 1996
I know one could list plenty of other examples where a player flopped the year after his career year, but I don't think Manning is going to have that problem this year. Just like the Patriots continue to win in a time when everybody says dynasties aren't possible, Manning will continue to rewrite the record books.