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Why the big drop off for L. Jordan and R. Johnson???R. Johnson will be coming off back to back top 10 fantasy seasons with no signs of regression.
Sorry, Lamont Jordan is going to need more than one season to be considered with the elite RBs. Your love for him should not blind you of that fact. Lamont had a great year, don't get me wrong, but you can't put him in the same tier as those guys yet. I mean, does that mean Thomas Jones should be put in that tier as well...he has had two back to back good seasons....same with Warrick Dunn.
How can you put RBs like Rudi Johnson and Jordan in the list so easily to say there will be a big drop off to Steven Jackson, Thomas Jones, Carnell Williams, Westbrook or Deuce?I don't think you can easily say that, and hence you can't lump them in the same tier as the Top RBs.
Rudi Johnson doesn't get enough total yards to be lumped in with the likes of Alexander, Tiki, LJ, Edge, Tomlinson, and Portis. He's all rushing totals and that's it. Wide receivers are getting more yards than him. Because of such there has to be a huge dropoff from yardage RB's to him. Each one of those backs listed has the ability to get anywere from 300-700 more total yards and at worst the same amount of TD's.IMO, Lamont Jordan is a much better play in the first round because he is used in the passing game. Thus he's a safer pick because he doesn't have to gain 2000 yards on the ground and have 20+ TDs to be a top guy.Kudos to Rudi Johnson for consistency but in a 12 team league he's should be a 2nd round pick.
Much like I had this debate last year in regards to SA vs LT.... Rudi is a CONSISTENT TD scorer and in an O that will keep him that way so long as he is healthy. These types of guys are rare IMO. Most RBs depend of yds for consistency. 9, 12 and 12 TDs is no fluke. So while you guys are all harping on yds and rec, I'll take the guy who is on a team that is proven to not only give their RB chances to score but also a guy who is proven to be able to convert them. Cinci's O is simply too good for Rudi to score much less.
I think I remember you saying something like that in the McGahee thread (I think?). But that is where I said I'd much rather have a yardage guy over a TD guy, because the yardage guy is a safer play with a higher ceiling than a guy who gets mediocre yardage totals with TD totals. Yardage is much easier to predict than TD's. But part of your argument is also a weakness. True the Bengals O is good and will keep the defenses honest, but it will also limit the production Rudi will get. Unlike the year Jamal Lewis had when the Ravens leaned on him to get 2000 yards, because of the good passing game the Bengals have, they won't lean on the run so he probably won't all of a sudden get 2000 rushing yards or even 1800. An optimist would probably top him out at around 1600, and that's being optimistic. So that comes back to the TD's. In order to be in the league of Tiki, Alexander, Johnson, LT, Edge and on a lesser extent guys like Portis and McCallister he has to get MORE THAN 12 TDs or else you have to think there is a big drop between him and the other guys mentioned.IMO, here are a list of players who are better than Rudi for Fantasy purposes:AlexanderLJLTEdgeTikiPortisJordanAnd here are RB's who have a legitimate shot to outscore Rudi.McCallisterRicky Williams (if traded)Dom Davis (if Reggie Bush isn't around)WestbrookIt's not that I don't like Rudi, but I don't want him as my number #1 RB. He reminds me of a Curtis Martin-type you know what your getting player that makes a perfect 2nd round pick.
This might be the perception but the numbers prove otherwise. Rudi Johnson may be the most consistent RB the last two years.2004: 1,457 yds rushing, 84 yds receiving, 12 TD's
Rudi will be once again had for 2nd round value next year, I'm sure of it. People simply don't like the guy because he is not flashy and in fantasy cirlces is an after thought to Palmer and Chad. I was able to land Rudi for 3rd round value each of the last 2 years in redraft and both times he DID provide 1st round value finishing as RB8 and then RB7. Yes, I consider top 10 RBs 1st round values regardeless of the overall rank. I expect to have to draft Rudi in the 2nd next year as he is starting to catch on a bit. Still he will provide his owners once again with top 10 RB production though. Rudi may not have the ceiling of the other RBs in the top 10, but he does have a more proven track rcord than Jordan and his age is much more desireable than Tiki's IMO. The proof is in the pudding as they say. Despite this lack of "upside" you keep refering to, Rudi has managed back to back top 10 finishes and is on one of the most dangerous and consistent Os in the NFL. He doesn't get hurt or at least grinds though the minor injuries and is the featured RB on that team. What more do you want out of a top 10 RB?
This really is the beauty of Rudi Johnson in my opinion. I also believe he's a Top 10 RB but the odds are you won't have to spend a first-round pick to get him. So you can get him as your RB2 and essentially (assuming your RB1 doesn't bust out) have two RB1s on your roster all season long. Helluva advantage if you can get it.
This conversation got started because someone said there was a big drop between Rudi/Lamont and the other guys (Tiki, LJ etc.). That is correct there is.Actually the perception I have is that he is a second round pick. And I believe that perception is correct. In 2005: He was the #7 back but #12 overall.In 2004: He was the #8 back but #20 overall.In my league this year he was #7 RB, but was 40 FP behind the #5 guy. Thats a big drop and I'm not even talking PPR. Rudi is the type of back you pair up with a risky play at the turn with a boom/bust guy like SJax or McGahee. IMO he should be taken somewhere between 12-16.
Speaking for myself, I would much prefer to get Rudi in the second round as my RB2 because, as I stated before I believe the opportunity to have two RB1s is too good to pass up and that's what Rudi can provide. However, if I'm sitting outside the Top 6 in the first round next season I may not be able to pass up on Rudi in the first round given the consistency I know he can provide -- as opposed to players such as Jackson and Williams, for example, who I believe have higher upsides but carry more risk (namely due to their durability concerns). And I should say when I'm talking about my league it's a non-PPR league.
If he's a second round pick, it's one of the first few picks of the second round. Because RB's are more valuable in FF, I believe his value is a little higher than the #12 overall. These are the type of players you want to target in FF because of the value you can get from them. Like Tiki in the past, everyone will keep undrerrating Rudi and he will make a great second round pick. I don't think we're really that far off on Rudi's value, I'm just saying his numbers put him in the first round. If he's there for any pick in the second round take him and don't look back.
Turner is not gone yet. But even with a new coach Jordan will be just fine. Will he have 70 receptions again? probably not. But he will still catch 40-50 balls out of the backfield and his rushing totals are going to come up as well. Therefore I see it all balancing out. He will have 1600 plus total yards of offense next year and 10 plus td's (Heck he did that in 14 games this year). Jordan is a good back who will again finish as a top 10 fantasy RB next year with a chance of being top 5. IMO Jordan is not getting enough credit for his 1600 yards of offense and 11 TD's. Just ask Crockett how many goaline touches he saw this year and when he did see them how hard it was for him to convert them. (thinking back to the last game of the year when Jordan did not play and Crockett was stuffed 4 times in a row in NY). That offense line was so inconsistent and frusturating to watch yet Jordan had one of the best goaline conversion percentages in the league and finised as a top 10 RB this season.
Perry will be the change of pace RB again next season and take away the receptions from Rudi. If it ain't broke then don't fix it philosophy, it worked wonderful this year so I beg it will change much if any next season. Rudi's numbers will not regress nor will they take a huge jump. That is why I feel he will finish next years season with similiar numbers to the previous 2 years thus putting him as a safe play to finish in the 7-12 range next season with an outside shot at higher.
What more does Rudi Johnson have to do around here to get any credit? This is enough for me:
IMO Flip a coin. Portis does have the age advantage though.
You were saying?
I will just repost what I said in full not leaving anything out:Turner is not gone yet. But even with a new coach Jordan will be just fine. Will he have 70 receptions again? probably not. But he will still catch 40-50 balls out of the backfield and his rushing totals are going to come up as well. Therefore I see it all balancing out. He will have 1600 plus total yards of offense next year and 10 plus td's (Heck he did that in 14 games this year). Jordan is a good back who will again finish as a top 10 fantasy RB next year with a chance of being top 5.
