First Round Risk after the top 3? (1 Viewer)

[cincipd]

I think most here agree that you don't win your league in the first round but you can lose it. If you don't have a top 3 pick (Tomlinson, SJax, LJ) and if you want to minimize your risk who do you lean towards??

As I look at the next tier they all seem to have different situations that could have some downside

Gore - Only one good year, new coach, history of injuries

Alexander - How is the foot, How is the offensive line, 30 years old

Addai - How many carries will he wind up splitting, only one good year

Parker - new coach, does someone take the goaline carries

Westbrook - can he hold up, will he have as many touches as last year

Anything can happen but there don't look like any sure things in this group. At the moment I'm thinking Addai is the safest of the group as the offense wil be the same, coaches the same, less competition, should be around the endzone a lot but I'm interested to hear other's thoughts. I've done a lot of reading on the site and their really doesn't appear to be any consensus on the issue.

 

[LHUCKS]

Peyton Manning

 

[BroadwayG]

Addai or Parker

 

[Rounders]

Peyton Manning

Yeah but would you take him at #4 LHUCKS?

 

[erymer]

I'm going with Parker. Tomlin came from Minnesota and they gave Chester the ball 304 times. Granted Tomlin is a DEF guy, but I really don't expect a drop off for him. And he is a proven back with no injury history. How do you not like a guy named Fast Willie.

 

[TD Ryan]

I'm not even sure you can consider LJ a "no risk" guy at #3.

If it's PPR, should R Bush be considered "low risk" here and a reasonable choice?

and yes, I agree that Manning is the only seemingly "no-risk" player but I won't take him in the 1st round.

 

[benbadman]

Peyton Manning is zero-risk if you want a QB to start every game and get you at least 26 TD passes (slightly over 1.5 per game)

Of the RBs, Rudi Johnson is no risk for 11-12 TDs. He'd be like RB6.

I like Alexander as RB4, but Willie Parker has less risk than Alexander imo. Kinda 4A 4B situation here.

 

[kensat30]

I think Alexander is the least risk. The guy has been injury free his entire career up until last year, and he came back strong from the injury last year. Even if he does decline due to age, o-line, loss of pass-catchers, etc. (I don't see it this way) the guy still has a nose for the endzone and a coaching staff that trusts giving him the ball 2-3 when it's goal to go. Rudi Johnson's average production (1500/12) is more of the low side for a guy like Alexander.

 

[a_troll00]

I believe Travis Henry will be a very safe and reliable pick in the late first round. He will be an absolute monster in the Broncos' offense. Rudy Johnson and Parker will be very safe, reliable, and effective picks as well.

 

[code]

ADP based on mocks at FFC has it:

1.3 LT

2.3 SJax

2.9 LJ

4.6 Gore

5.2 SA

6.1 Addai

7.1 Westbrook

8.1 Parker

9.1 Rudi

I've been ranking them:

1. LT

2. SJax

3. LJ

4. Westbrook (we are 0.5 PPR)

5. Addai

6. Rudi

7. Gore

8. SA (we are contract keeper)

9. Parker

 

[LHUCKS]

Peyton Manning

Yeah but would you take him at #4 LHUCKS?

No, I would take Shaun Alexander. I thought the question was who would have the least risk.

 

[Ilov80s]

Addai and FWP. I would also love to trade out of that spot for somebody who is hot on SA or Gore.

 

[sholditch]

I'm not even sure you can consider LJ a "no risk" guy at #3.

LJ seems like a major risk, especially if he holds out all camp after registering 400+ carries last year. I don't worry about production over the course of the year as I do weeks 14-16.

IMO, SA and LJ are equal risk and about equal reward. So I would put them at 3 and 4. 5 I have Westy, 6 FWP, 7 Rudi, then Maaaaaybe Addai. He is just going way too high for my tastes. Truth be told I'd prolly balk and take either Manning or a top wideout if all those guys are gone. I could easily see a lot of the 2nd round backs (Portis, Benson, TJones, Edge, Ronnie Brown, Travis Henry) outscoring Addai this year. To me he is hands down the riskiest pick in this group. Here's why:

Everyone just assumes that his production doubles being the lone back (or at least substantially improves) but this will be the first time since high school that he has been the lone featured back. Throughout his career at LSU he was splitting carries pretty heavily.

He doesn't have the obvious skills that a lot of other runners have. He's not incredibly fast or elusive. He is an incredibly good pass-catcher. When teams are simply game-planning for him rather than him or Rhodes, on any given down, they may be able to more accurately size up his weaknesses and exploit them. The people he is being taken around are all established feature backs with proven high levels of success. Honestly I consider him only a slightly safer pick than Maroney, and that's only because of Maroney's shoulder.

I get the whole "best offense in the NFL" thing, but I don't think that magically turns this guy into Edge from 04. He'll probably end up with about 1300 rushing and 300 receiving and 10 total TDs. Seems a little low for a guy with an ADP of 6th overall.

 

[Keg]

I think most here agree that you don't win your league in the first round but you can lose it. If you don't have a top 3 pick (Tomlinson, SJax, LJ) and if you want to minimize your risk who do you lean towards??

As I look at the next tier they all seem to have different situations that could have some downside

Gore - Only one good year, new coach, history of injuries

Alexander - How is the foot, How is the offensive line, 30 years old

Addai - How many carries will he wind up splitting, only one good year

Parker - new coach, does someone take the goaline carries

Westbrook - can he hold up, will he have as many touches as last year

Anything can happen but there don't look like any sure things in this group. At the moment I'm thinking Addai is the safest of the group as the offense wil be the same, coaches the same, less competition, should be around the endzone a lot but I'm interested to hear other's thoughts. I've done a lot of reading on the site and their really doesn't appear to be any consensus on the issue.

as far as risk goes:Addai: Ever carry the full load? RISK

Alexander: How is the foot? What about his age and mileage? RISK

Parker: New regime, signed Barlow(possible GL back)...RISK

Westbrook - as stated can he hold up? RISK

if you truly want the RB that has the least amount of risk and has been extremely consistent then you have to say that RB is RUDI JOHNSON (read post 17, last yrs numbers were pretty much right there with his avgs)

 

[Rounders]

Peyton Manning

Yeah but would you take him at #4 LHUCKS?

No, I would take Shaun Alexander. I thought the question was who would have the least risk.

You answered it correctly, I just wanted to pick you brain, that's all.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

The obvious answer here is probably Rudi, and given the OP's username I'm guessing that's what he was looking for

Certainly doesn't make him the pick (or close to it) there though.

Peyton having no risk is a myth of faulty perception. Correct me if I'm wrong, but if a QB goes for 4000/28 (right around his averages) where does that put him in terms of VBD? I believe it's somewhere around the 3rd round, which is where VBD puts "bust" RB numbers like Edge's from last year.

A 1st round QB going for 4000/28 is just as "bad" as a 1st round RB going for 1400/7 in terms of fantasy football, people just don't perceive it as being as "bad" because 4000/28 is good in real life.

Too bad we're playing fantasy football, not real NFL football...

 

[-OZ-]

Rudi

FWP

Addai

Peyton - Bagelboy makes a good point, but Peyton has been a top 2 QB every year, you can't say any of these RBs have been a top 10 RB as long, or are as likely to be a top 10 RB this year as Peyton is to be a top 2 QB.

 

[EBF]

Tough call. I think you can make a strong case for all of those guys.

I'd also add Travis Henry to the list. He's easily the best back on the Broncos and we all know their history with RBs. If Portis can be a top 3 guy there, than Henry has a chance to be top 5-6.

 

[cincipd]

The obvious answer here is probably Rudi, and given the OP's username I'm guessing that's what he was looking for Certainly doesn't make him the pick (or close to it) there though.Peyton having no risk is a myth of faulty perception. Correct me if I'm wrong, but if a QB goes for 4000/28 (right around his averages) where does that put him in terms of VBD? I believe it's somewhere around the 3rd round, which is where VBD puts "bust" RB numbers like Edge's from last year.A 1st round QB going for 4000/28 is just as "bad" as a 1st round RB going for 1400/7 in terms of fantasy football, people just don't perceive it as being as "bad" because 4000/28 is good in real life.Too bad we're playing fantasy football, not real NFL football...

actually just moved here in February from Indy... probably why I am jaded on Addai

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Peyton - Bagelboy makes a good point, but Peyton has been a top 2 QB every year, you can't say any of these RBs have been a top 10 RB as long, or are as likely to be a top 10 RB this year as Peyton is to be a top 2 QB.

This kind of goes along with what I was saying. Who cares if he's a top 2 QB? I'm more concerned where he ends up overall VBD-wise.Baltimore is a top 2 defense year in and year out. Antonio Gates is a top 1 TE EVERY year. Doesn't make them first round picks nor does it make them any "safer" if the #1 defense still puts them in the middle of the 8th round VBD-wise.Just more broken perception.