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Fitz = back to earth (1 Viewer)

Rev

Footballguy
I was one who predicted that after week 4, Fitz' value would be back down to earth. Playing next to Boldin and Edge would decrease his touches, and with a rookie QB working in, he was bound to drop in production. This scenario looks to be the reality, so that Fitz could actually dip into the high 70s/low 80s in receptions and have 5 or less TDs on the year. Surprising given last year's production, but predictable, I think.

:unsure: The question is, however, is he a "buy low," or a "watch him sink a while longer as the rookie works in and then nab him"?

 
it's hard to say IMO.... it's gonna take a game to see what tendencies Leinart seems to have before i'm comfortable w/ my estimations of Fitz' or Boldin's value

i'm pretty sure it'll take a hit... but who knows

 
I think clearly his #s take a hit with the rookie QB but this is no average rookie so he should still be at the very least a solid WR2.

 
The first 2 teams he plays have given up 0, yes 0 passing TD's this season...Sell high now. Matt seemed to favor Boldin for the short time he was in. 2 of his 5 completions were to him. But its going to be JP losman like for atleast 2 games. And i mean the 05 JP :loco:

 
Two points:

Leinart is a polished rookie my most peoples account

Warner has been awful this year

Those two factors shouldn't lead to too much of a drop in Fitz's production

 
Arizona plays KC and CHI in their next two games. Those two teams are #3 and #4 in overall defense, respectively. For a team with huge O-line problems, no running game, and a Rookie at QB who has yet to start an NFL game...that might be an issue.

So if you want to buy low on him, you should probably wait at least a week. But if you wait two weeks, the owner might see that OAK matchup looming, and want to hold onto him until he has a big game. But...I'm not a big fan of WR's with rookie QB's and no running game. I'm sure he'll end up with respectable numbers, but he's going to be inconsistent with Leinart back there.

I'm avoiding Fitz and Boldin unless the owners totally give up on them, and I can get them cheap. But I don't see their value falling far enough in their owner's eyes to make a run at either of them. Guys in my league don't freak out after a couple of bad games. :(

 
The first 2 teams he plays have given up 0, yes 0 passing TD's this season...Sell high now. Matt seemed to favor Boldin for the short time he was in. 2 of his 5 completions were to him. But its going to be JP losman like for atleast 2 games. And i mean the 05 JP :loco:
In this small sampling here are the targets:Boldin - 2

Fitz - 2

Bergan - 1

Pope - 1

Johnson - 1

Tate - 1

 
:lol:

people act like the team lost the '99 warner

dude was awful this season... fresh blood could actually be a godsend.

i'd buy low, or hold if i have him.

 
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people act like the team lost the '99 warnerdude was awful this season... fresh blood could actually be a godsend.i'd buy low, or hold if i have him.
I agree. The only thing I can think of is that maybe they won't be as bad and so there will be less garbage stats to rack up? Jaworski's protests aside, Warner isn't good.
 
As a Fitz owner myself, my advice is ...

A) If you own him and have depth at WR, then let him sit on your bench as Leinart matures. The next 2 games will be a killer but he will learn quick or end up hurt in which case we get Warner back. ( I have the depth and this will be my approach )

B) If you are looking to buy cheap, wait til after these next 2 games as it is very likely that Fitz' value will be cheaper in 2 weeks.

C) If you are a Fitz owner who absolutely can not afford to let him sit on your bench for a few weeks then get what you can for him from an owner who is deeper at WR. Just don't sell him too cheap as I believe that in 3 - 4 weeks you will see a solid WR in Fitz again with the maturity and some expierence under Leinart.

 
:lol:

people act like the team lost the '99 warner

dude was awful this season... fresh blood could actually be a godsend.

i'd buy low, or hold if i have him.
Yes but this was EXACTLY the same argument peoplemade for McGahee last year saying that losing Bledsoe was actually good for Mcgahee since Bledsoe eucked blah blah blah.....well, we all found out how Losman just killed McGahee's value last year. The same thing will happen here. (And maybe you have not noticed, but the same thing is happening in SD too....what is Gates and McCardell's production this year???)A vet at Qb (independent of what his production is) commands a different defensive scheme and hence improves value of players around him. With Bledsoe, there was ALWAYS the threat for a deep throw for a TD to Moulds or Evans, and that gave McGahee space to work with. That disappeared with Losman last year. Now, with Leinart, he will make his rookie mistakes of not seeing the open WR, or mis communicating the play or mis reading the defense or throwing a dumb pick etc etc .... also, the O plan will be to get conservative and run the ball more with Edge....all in all, Fitz and Boldin will not live up to their ADPs this year, guaranteed. I said this before the year began, and it will be true.

 
last year fitz & boldin were #2 & #9 WR

through the first four games of 06 season, they are #19 & #27, respectively...

fitz's production so far has been a disappointment relative to last season...

with the insertion of leinart into the lineup (probably for the duration, barring injury), fitz & boldin may continue to disappoint... relative to last year... but relative to this year so far, it is more feasible that leinart could come close to those numbers...

so in thinking about fitz & where to go from here (i take it this is short term concern & so this question primarily prompted by redraft questions), it is important to make the distinction of whether expectations & disappointment are measured against last year or this season as baseline...

it might be unrealistic to think leinart could boost fitz all the way back to 05 level of #2 WR... #19 WR would certainly be more doable... that is a decent WR2 in almost all size leagues... it hurts as he was no doubt drafted by almost everybody as a WR1...

be that as it may, imo it is worth thinking about if fitz can maintain approx current production of # 19 WR... even for those inclined to trade, it would be nice to peg his value a little more precisely, to help determine if you are getting fair trade value, & if not, at what point is it better to retain him...

one thing about fitz is he is a big, inviting target with great hops, athleticism, acrobatic body control... so while a rookie QB like leinart might not be expected to have pinpoint accuracy, that could align with fitz's strengths... just throw it in the same general vicinity & he will come down with a high percentage of 50/50 balls (leinart was also used to throwing to tall WRs at USC in mike williams & duane jarrett)...

in a strange twist, paradoxically if leinart gets off to a slow start, that may not hurt the stats of fitz & boldin...

if the team starts to get down by 2-3 scores by half time with regularity, they may be forced to throw even more in second half, which could actually pad their stats...

personally i'm not expecting leinart to be as completely non-functional as alex smith was in his rookie season... even some of his detractors who aren't high on his arm would concede that he is one of more game ready QBs in last 5-10 years...

 
Everyone says Leinart is "game ready". What do you judge that from? College? Practice? Preseason?

I can only think of one QB who was ready for the NFL from day 1: Dan Marino. Big Ben was pretty good too, but he was not asked to do much. Leinart is going to have to carry that team because the run game and defense are ineffective.

Bottom line, the percentages dictate that 99% of rookie QB's struggle. Leinart is additionally handicapped by playing behind that awful offensive line.

Fitz and Boldin might still put up good yardage because they are going to be throwing a lot, but Arizona is going to lose a lot of games this season.

 
Depending on Fitz's owner I think this a great time to buy. Before the season started he would have cost you the equivalent of an early to late 2nd rounder. Now I think you can get him at a much more reasonable cost He probably won't put up amazing numbers, but at least you won't have paid for and needed those type of numbers to justify the move. Plus I say do it now rathar than let Leinhart show his hand and maybe raise the price again.

 
I am a Fitz owner and going to hold on to him. You are not going to get much in a trade anyway. I have Holt, A. Johnson, Driver, and Mason, so I can sit him on the bench. Everyone is down on Leinart. The talk that Leinart was going to take over started the minute he was drafted. Everyone knew that he was going to take over either due to injury or crappy play by Warner. It wasn't like Fitz was putting up monster numbers before this move. He will be fine. Edge isn't doing much and they will be playing from behind and throwing a lot. I wouldn't use Leinart as your QB, but he should be able to put up 200 YDs, 1 or 2 TDs and maybe 2 or 3 INTs in that division. Fitz should catch 70+ of the YDs and a TD at least every other game. Maybe not #1 numbers, but pretty solid #2. He will probably not live up to his ADP. But his numbers should be solid, 1100 YDs and 8 TDs. The only thing I worry about is if Leinart starts to favor Boldin. He hasn't yet.

 
With all due respect, why in the world would you keep him with all that depth at WR. Do you start 4 per week? I don't disagree with the numbers you project (well maybe just a little) but I sure would be trying to improve my RB's or QB's given your depth. Heck, maybe a trade for TE improvement. Your dealing from a position of strength.

I am a Fitz owner and going to hold on to him. You are not going to get much in a trade anyway. I have Holt, A. Johnson, Driver, and Mason, so I can sit him on the bench. Everyone is down on Leinart. The talk that Leinart was going to take over started the minute he was drafted. Everyone knew that he was going to take over either due to injury or crappy play by Warner. It wasn't like Fitz was putting up monster numbers before this move. He will be fine. Edge isn't doing much and they will be playing from behind and throwing a lot. I wouldn't use Leinart as your QB, but he should be able to put up 200 YDs, 1 or 2 TDs and maybe 2 or 3 INTs in that division. Fitz should catch 70+ of the YDs and a TD at least every other game. Maybe not #1 numbers, but pretty solid #2. He will probably not live up to his ADP. But his numbers should be solid, 1100 YDs and 8 TDs. The only thing I worry about is if Leinart starts to favor Boldin. He hasn't yet.
 
As a former Fitz owner, I opted to move him. I think if you can get proper value, you move him along. I traded straight up for Harrison. Harrison owner had Fitz last year and I knew he liked him. While his numbers may tick up slightly, I do not see him appraoching Harrison's #'s. Just my 2 cents. I would not move him for anything less than a WR1 on your fantasy team.

 
:lol:

people act like the team lost the '99 warner

dude was awful this season... fresh blood could actually be a godsend.

i'd buy low, or hold if i have him.
Yes but this was EXACTLY the same argument peoplemade for McGahee last year saying that losing Bledsoe was actually good for Mcgahee since Bledsoe eucked blah blah blah.....well, we all found out how Losman just killed McGahee's value last year. The same thing will happen here. (And maybe you have not noticed, but the same thing is happening in SD too....what is Gates and McCardell's production this year???)A vet at Qb (independent of what his production is) commands a different defensive scheme and hence improves value of players around him. With Bledsoe, there was ALWAYS the threat for a deep throw for a TD to Moulds or Evans, and that gave McGahee space to work with. That disappeared with Losman last year. Now, with Leinart, he will make his rookie mistakes of not seeing the open WR, or mis communicating the play or mis reading the defense or throwing a dumb pick etc etc .... also, the O plan will be to get conservative and run the ball more with Edge....all in all, Fitz and Boldin will not live up to their ADPs this year, guaranteed. I said this before the year began, and it will be true.
Sweetness,You are comparing a RB's production with a rookie QB in your Bledsoe -Losman -McGahee argument; this is entirely different than a WR's production in the same situation.

And remember with Cards have not got much of a running game anyway so they are going to throw the ball.

Fitz will be ok with ML at the helm - he might slump for a game or so but I think his overall value will not take a seroius hit.

 
Their is a real possibility that when Lynie develops, his favorite WR is Boldin. If Edge continues to grow into the offence, Fitz could be option #3, and that is if Pope doesn't emerge to mightily.

 
Their is a real possibility that when Lynie develops, his favorite WR is Fitzgerald. If Edge continues to grow into the offence, Boldin could be option #3, and that is if Pope doesn't emerge to mightily.
Fixed. An equally probable scenario, except, of course, for the BS about Pope. I'm sure THAT guy is going to take away from the value of Fitz and Boldin. There aren't enough of these: :rolleyes: in the world.
 
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I haven't seen anyone mention a keeper league scenario yet. I just got an offer of Fitzgerald for Steve Smith. While giving up Smith will be a tough pill to swallow, I think long term it will turn out great. I've always loved Fitzgerald, and can't wait to have him on my team. If Leinart and that offense ever get going the way many of us think it can, look out.

His hammies don't worry me as much either.

 
I have Fitz and I'm glad to see the rookie QB starting.....we have to give him a few weeks to see what he can do.....This might be a plesant suprise for Fitz owners..... :yes:

 
Is the same thing being said about Boldin? "Boldin = back to earth" ??

Boldin has just 1 more reception, but 26 fewer yards than Fitz. They both only have 1 TD. So why the knock on just Fitz, and the high praise for Boldin?

Fitz will be fine. He's way too talented to flop. Leinart isn't the one I'm worried about. It's that atrocious O-line that we all knew sucked horribly...

 
:lol:

people act like the team lost the '99 warner

dude was awful this season... fresh blood could actually be a godsend.

i'd buy low, or hold if i have him.
Yes but this was EXACTLY the same argument peoplemade for McGahee last year saying that losing Bledsoe was actually good for Mcgahee since Bledsoe eucked blah blah blah.....well, we all found out how Losman just killed McGahee's value last year. The same thing will happen here. (And maybe you have not noticed, but the same thing is happening in SD too....what is Gates and McCardell's production this year???)A vet at Qb (independent of what his production is) commands a different defensive scheme and hence improves value of players around him. With Bledsoe, there was ALWAYS the threat for a deep throw for a TD to Moulds or Evans, and that gave McGahee space to work with. That disappeared with Losman last year. Now, with Leinart, he will make his rookie mistakes of not seeing the open WR, or mis communicating the play or mis reading the defense or throwing a dumb pick etc etc .... also, the O plan will be to get conservative and run the ball more with Edge....all in all, Fitz and Boldin will not live up to their ADPs this year, guaranteed. I said this before the year began, and it will be true.
McGahee's value was hurt more because they don't respect the QB and can stack the line. (See, e.g., the Jets with Bollinger under center). Along those lines, I think Warner's loss would hurt Edge moreso than either of the WRs. If anything, they'll get more single coverage and less safety help over the top.Also, Leinart is by all accounts more polished than '05 JP Losman, and I would say maybe even more than the '06 Losman.

 
Fitz is a buy right now, his stock can't go lower because he hasn't played the two tough games coming up that everyone sees on the schedule. Everyone is expecting 0 from him in those games already, so if he does nothing his perceived value should not go down much. However if he does anything in those games his value will rise from this point - he truly has nowhere to go but up.

Anyway thanks for reminding me - I'm off to go remind his current owners of just how tough these next two weeks will be for him.

 
Their is a real possibility that when Lynie develops, his favorite WR is Boldin. If Edge continues to grow into the offence, Fitz could be option #3, and that is if Pope doesn't emerge to mightily.
There is as much possibility that Lynie could marry Fitz.
 
I was one who predicted that after week 4, Fitz' value would be back down to earth. Playing next to Boldin and Edge would decrease his touches, and with a rookie QB working in, he was bound to drop in production. This scenario looks to be the reality, so that Fitz could actually dip into the high 70s/low 80s in receptions and have 5 or less TDs on the year. Surprising given last year's production, but predictable, I think. :unsure: The question is, however, is he a "buy low," or a "watch him sink a while longer as the rookie works in and then nab him"?
Dynasty:Sell now - Buy lower in 2 months
 
I was one who predicted that after week 4, Fitz' value would be back down to earth. Playing next to Boldin and Edge would decrease his touches, and with a rookie QB working in, he was bound to drop in production. This scenario looks to be the reality, so that Fitz could actually dip into the high 70s/low 80s in receptions and have 5 or less TDs on the year. Surprising given last year's production, but predictable, I think. :unsure: The question is, however, is he a "buy low," or a "watch him sink a while longer as the rookie works in and then nab him"?
Dynasty:Sell now - Buy lower in 2 months
i just bought fitztraded jamal lewis and a future first(looking like a top 4 pick) for fitzthoughts?
 
Redraft, I just traded Gore straight up for him.

Gore worries me and I don't start him anyway. My WR's needed a boost. Fitz is a plenty viable option.

 
I find it amazing with all of these replies, not 1 has mentioned that horrid offensive line. :shock: :X

Warner didn't suck this year. Bolden and Fitz havent sucked. No one - and I mean NO ONE - is going to produce if that line doesn't improve ALOT.

Guys are just flying into the backfield completely untouched on practically every pass. And its basically the same on rushing downs. Those offensive lineman are supposed to be on exactly the same page, like gears interlocking in a machine. There are 5 individuals playing O line in Arizona. And the FB whiffs way too much.

Now, combine that with the fact that Leinart was never really put under pressure in college. Not like he is going to face very soon, week in and week out. In fact, you could argue, the way the line is blocking, that no one will have faced the pressure that QB is going to face.

In college, there would be stretches of 3, 4 games where he wouldnt be touched at all by a defender. In this league, behind that line, he is going to be touched. :eek: :shock:

Matt, I want you to meet Mr Urlacher. He is going to be your Daddy for the next 60 minutes. Then he is going to pass you to whichever NFL linebacker that comes next. And so on down the line. We all want to welcome you in our own special way to the NFL son. Congratulations on that big contract.

Best case scenario - Matt's release IS as quick as advertised and mentally he realizes he needs to throw the ball fast - either to a receiver or out of bounds. If he is fast enough, he may live until the end of the season. Otherwise, I give him 6 games before he, or anyone else you put behind that line, is injured.

HS

PS O-line play DOES tend to get better as the year goes on

PPS I actually agree with the post regarding the Losman/Leinart comparison - only Losman had a much better offensive line and could run. :porked:

 
I find it amazing with all of these replies, not 1 has mentioned that horrid offensive line. :shock: :X

Warner didn't suck this year. Bolden and Fitz havent sucked. No one - and I mean NO ONE - is going to produce if that line doesn't improve ALOT.

Guys are just flying into the backfield completely untouched on practically every pass. And its basically the same on rushing downs. Those offensive lineman are supposed to be on exactly the same page, like gears interlocking in a machine. There are 5 individuals playing O line in Arizona. And the FB whiffs way too much.

Now, combine that with the fact that Leinart was never really put under pressure in college. Not like he is going to face very soon, week in and week out. In fact, you could argue, the way the line is blocking, that no one will have faced the pressure that QB is going to face.

In college, there would be stretches of 3, 4 games where he wouldnt be touched at all by a defender. In this league, behind that line, he is going to be touched. :eek: :shock:

Matt, I want you to meet Mr Urlacher. He is going to be your Daddy for the next 60 minutes. Then he is going to pass you to whichever NFL linebacker that comes next. And so on down the line. We all want to welcome you in our own special way to the NFL son. Congratulations on that big contract.

Best case scenario - Matt's release IS as quick as advertised and mentally he realizes he needs to throw the ball fast - either to a receiver or out of bounds. If he is fast enough, he may live until the end of the season. Otherwise, I give him 6 games before he, or anyone else you put behind that line, is injured.

HS

PS O-line play DOES tend to get better as the year goes on

PPS I actually agree with the post regarding the Losman/Leinart comparison - only Losman had a much better offensive line and could run. :porked:
POD (post of the day) vote for me measured entirely on the amount of coffee that's been spit on my computer screen.
 
I find it amazing with all of these replies, not 1 has mentioned that horrid offensive line. :shock: :X Warner didn't suck this year. Bolden and Fitz havent sucked. No one - and I mean NO ONE - is going to produce if that line doesn't improve ALOT.
fine, but if warner would have just eaten the ball instead of handing it to the opposing team on a silver platter everytime, he might still have his job... the guy was awful and a walking turnover, much as he has been the last several years. please don't sugarcoat it.
 
I find it amazing with all of these replies, not 1 has mentioned that horrid offensive line. :shock: :X
i find it amazing how poorly you read through the other responsesthe Oline is a big deal... but Leinart is much more mobile than Warner... i'm guessing they'll get him out of the pocket and buy some time for the recievers... something they couldn't do w/ Warner. And if teams blitz all day, there are only a couple of guys i think are better on a quick slant than Boldin
 
The offensive line is no worse than it was last year. And I don't think Leinart is going to be any worse than Josh McCown was last year. Therefore I don't see much of a reason for Fitz to do much worse than last year. Yeah the next couple of weeks could be tough, but Fitz is one of the most talented players in the NFL, he'll get his. If you sell cheap now you'll be kicking yourself in about a month.

 
Lauryn Hill said:
Hairy Snowman said:
I find it amazing with all of these replies, not 1 has mentioned that horrid offensive line. :shock: :X Warner didn't suck this year. Bolden and Fitz havent sucked. No one - and I mean NO ONE - is going to produce if that line doesn't improve ALOT.
fine, but if warner would have just eaten the ball instead of handing it to the opposing team on a silver platter everytime, he might still have his job... the guy was awful and a walking turnover, much as he has been the last several years. please don't sugarcoat it.
I agree. The guy needs to learn to take a sack or throw it away. But after the NYG stint everyone knew he was a china doll back there with glass fingers (or at least a glass thumb and middle finger). He is a guy that NEEDS an O line to be successful. But he has been especially bad this year too.
 
bonesman said:
Hairy Snowman said:
I find it amazing with all of these replies, not 1 has mentioned that horrid offensive line. :shock: :X
i find it amazing how poorly you read through the other responsesthe Oline is a big deal... but Leinart is much more mobile than Warner... i'm guessing they'll get him out of the pocket and buy some time for the recievers... something they couldn't do w/ Warner. And if teams blitz all day, there are only a couple of guys i think are better on a quick slant than Boldin
IMO Leinart isnt running away from anyone in this league. Maybe some designed rolls, but that will only work so long before the corners start coming in on zone blitzes. IMO his arm and his head will be his best defense against sacks.
 
Gr00vus said:
The offensive line is no worse than it was last year. And I don't think Leinart is going to be any worse than Josh McCown was last year. Therefore I don't see much of a reason for Fitz to do much worse than last year. Yeah the next couple of weeks could be tough, but Fitz is one of the most talented players in the NFL, he'll get his. If you sell cheap now you'll be kicking yourself in about a month.
Here I disagree. Its the same talent as last year, but they aren't performing at close to the level they were playing at last year (which still wasn't very good). I think they probably improve some as the year goes on. IMO They can't get any worse, so only one way to go.
 
bonesman said:
Hairy Snowman said:
I find it amazing with all of these replies, not 1 has mentioned that horrid offensive line. :shock: :X
i find it amazing how poorly you read through the other responsesthe Oline is a big deal... but Leinart is much more mobile than Warner... i'm guessing they'll get him out of the pocket and buy some time for the recievers... something they couldn't do w/ Warner. And if teams blitz all day, there are only a couple of guys i think are better on a quick slant than Boldin
IMO Leinart isnt running away from anyone in this league. Maybe some designed rolls, but that will only work so long before the corners start coming in on zone blitzes. IMO his arm and his head will be his best defense against sacks.
:goodposting: Im pretty sure he wont pat the ball 50 times before taking a sack. He is smarter then Warner is at this stage in his career. He "should" be able to get the ball out quickly.

 
The Cardinal's WR corps are 3rd in the league with 783yds - only the Colts(798) and Jets(828) have more WR yardage. They are tied for 4th in the league in receptions (55), and tied for 4th in the league with 4 WR TDs (3 teams have 5, 2 have 6, and one has 7).

Fitz, Boldin, Johnson and Walters each have 1 TD. Fitz and Boldin each have 37 targets (Johnson has 11 and Walters has 5).

Just some info I felt like posting.

 
When analyzing Fitz the rest of this season, I believe we should forget about how he did with Warner at the helm. Leinart is a rookie. That's all I need to know. Unless he's one of those incredibly rare rookie QBs who can perform at an above-average level, Fitz's numbers will definitely go down from last season.

How much? That's hard to say. If I had to venture a guess, I'd predict both Fitz & Boldin take a fairly significant hit from '05. It'll be interesting to see how Leinart performs. Most teams who start a rookie at QB pretty much will admit they're looking to the future. I don't think that's the case with Arizona. Green really wants to win now, & right or wrong, he believes Leinart is better than Warner right now.

 
Football Jones said:
When analyzing Fitz the rest of this season, I believe we should forget about how he did with Warner at the helm. Leinart is a rookie. That's all I need to know. Unless he's one of those incredibly rare rookie QBs who can perform at an above-average level, Fitz's numbers will definitely go down from last season.How much? That's hard to say. If I had to venture a guess, I'd predict both Fitz & Boldin take a fairly significant hit from '05. It'll be interesting to see how Leinart performs. Most teams who start a rookie at QB pretty much will admit they're looking to the future. I don't think that's the case with Arizona. Green really wants to win now, & right or wrong, he believes Leinart is better than Warner right now.
I don't expect Leinart to be a great QB this year and he will make mistakes, but AZ is going to through the ball 30 times a game and I think you'll see numbers like Peyton's rookie year with lots of yards and INT's.
 

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