I'm going to just focus on Fitz for now. This discussion will also apply to others in the offense in different ways, but that's for another post/discussion.
There are really two issues to be considered here with regard to the impact on Fitz's performance going forward. First, how will his targets in 2010 and beyond compare to the targets he has received in recent years? Second, how will his production per target compare to what it was in recent years?
I looked up some data for Fitz and Leinart. Given that it's hard to account for times when Leinart relieved another QB vs. when he was pulled for another QB, I just chose all games in which both played and Leinart had 20 or more passing attempts and compared them to all of Fitz's other games (regular season and postseason) from 2006 to 2009, since Leinart joined the team in 2006. Here's the data:
Games in which Fitzgerald played and Leinart had 20+ pass attempts:
12 games, 97 targets, 60 receptions, 742 receiving yards (12.4 ypr), 4 TDs
Per 16 games, this scales to 129 targets, 80 receptions, 989 receiving yards, 5 TDs
All other games (regular season and postseason) played by Fitzgerald from 2006 to 2009:
54 games, 533 targets, 345 receptions, 4847 receiving yards (14 ypr), 46 TDs
Per 16 games, this scales to 158 targets, 102 receptions, 1436 receiving yards, 14 TDs
Obviously there is an enormous difference. This suggests that Leinart will indeed have a negative impact on Fitz's numbers. With Leinart, Fitz averaged fewer targets and his production per target was lower.
Of course, one might argue that Leinart has a chance to be better this year, especially since if he is going to be the starter he will have the chance to work all offseason and preseason with Fitz and the rest of the first team offense. But can that make up this huge gap? I seriously doubt it.
And I'd be concerned that with Warner out and Leinart in, the offense will shift to a more balanced attack, with more running and less passing. Check out where the offense ranked in passing and rushing attempts over the past 4 seasons:
2006 - #7 in passing attempts, #26 in rushing attempts
2007 - #2 in passing attempts, #25 in rushing attempts
2008 - #2 in passing attempts, #32 in rushing attempts
2009 - #3 in passing attempts, #32 in rushing attempts
I expect Whisenhunt to adjust to a more balanced attack going forward, given that he will no longer have one of the best passing QBs in the NFL.
I suppose if the Cardinals traded for McNabb or somehow otherwise obtained a potential top 10 caliber QB, Fitz could be alright. But otherwise, I fully expect him to dropoff from his performance in recent years. His talent hasn't changed, and he will still certainly be a top 20 WR, maybe still a top 10 WR. But if I had him in a dynasty league, I'd strongly consider trading him if he would still bring similar value to what he would have brought last year.
