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Flu Makes a Comeback After an Unusual Season Off (1 Viewer)

The General said:
Excellent sourced article talking about respiratory viruses having fallen off in 2020 - respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza viruses, other coronaviruses that cause common colds. 

Talks about testing, across States, medical organizations, different countries.

Pandemic broke the flu
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It is a compelling read. Some of the conclusions they draw could possibly reduce the number of the flu by a significant amount but again it seems to simplistic to account for a total elimination. Especially when it is coming back this year and we still have Covid. So that kind of rules out the "other virus overwhelming and alerting the immune system" theory in part. 

 
Insein said:
It is a compelling read. Some of the conclusions they draw could possibly reduce the number of the flu by a significant amount but again it seems to simplistic to account for a total elimination. Especially when it is coming back this year and we still have Covid. So that kind of rules out the "other virus overwhelming and alerting the immune system" theory in part. 
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I’m not a doctor, I haven’t spent my life studying diseases. I follow what people who do this say generally.

Among the things the article mentioned is the Mayo Clinic doing influenza tests and reporting the results. Those results are what they are. Something like 27k tests. There’s the proof I need.

We cannot live like we did last winter full time however, we now have vaccines, treatments, and a threshold of sickness and deaths we are willing to live with. If another variant proves to elude what we have built in the past year we will see how it gets handled by our government. There’s only so much people filling up hospitals that people responsible for well being of the population will take.

I travel a lot for work and I’ll be tempted to keep the mask thing going on even though they suck because planes are disgusting and filled with gross people :lol:  

 
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Herb said:
I will keep this as respectful as possible, as you have just pounded the hell out of a very sensitive nerve.

I work in healthcare. I see if first hand. We are overwhelmed, understaffed, burned out, and angry. Call that anecdotal if you want, but I'm living and breathing this ####. I am trying to hold my staff together to take care of our patients and it is a brutal, thankless cluster ####. I work long hours and go home demoralized more often than not. I like my job and am dedicated to it, as are most of the people that work under me. And people that refuse to believe what is right in front of their faces are the reason we're in this mess. But I'm just a mass-media consuming brainwashed rube, so go ahead and disregard the dire realities. God help us all.
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Thank you for everything that you do. Sorry we are a nation full of dopes that think they know more than professionals with decades of experience in the industry. 

 
tymarsas said:
That's not quite what the data says. The 39 - 56 million is the estimated number of flu cases in 2019-2020. The 1,675 flu cases is the actual number of positive tests in 2020-2021. They have not released estimates for 2020-2021 because of lack of numbers. There were likely much more than 1,675 cases in 2020-2021.

I was trying to find the number of positive tests in a normal year. The only numbers I can find are the positivity rate is normally 26.2% to 30.3%, and in 2020-2021 the number was 0.2% which is definitely shockingly low.
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I had flu/covid symptoms a few times last year.  Every time I was told to stay home and rest and not bother coming in.   Maybe just anecdotal, but I would guess on top of all the distancing and other measures people just didn't go in to the doctor unless it was an emergency and that added to the really low numbers b/c no testing and formal diagnosis were being given. 

 
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Insein said:
Possibly but not for the flu to completely disappear for a year. And if these measures were all we needed, why didn't we ever try them before? Why are they not working this year?
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So to clarify, what do you think was behind flu’s absence, and what is fueling it’s resurgence?

FTR, I’ve seen virtually no flu this season, barely more than 2020.

 
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Insein said:
Possibly but not for the flu to completely disappear for a year. And if these measures were all we needed, why didn't we ever try them before? Why are they not working this year?
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NPIs were far more strict, and more readily complied with, last year. They aren’t working any more because less people are staying home, distancing, wearing masks, etc.

Although I think the culture of mask wearing and staying home when sick should have been emphasized years ago, clearly a big segment of our population isn’t on board.

 
Insein said:
I'm just saying. If you showed people data that doing something will help eliminate a communicable disease that kills 50k people a year by 99.99997%, isn't that worth trying? There's always going to be detractors just like there were last year when these numbers occurred. Wouldn't the rest of the people go along with it if it was pretty much a sure thing?
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Flu doesn’t kill 50K people a year in this country. More like 35K. 

While we’ll never have widespread stay-at-home orders for seasonal flu (nor should we), I agree it’s worthwhile to promote masks, staying at home while sick, and annual flu vaccination.

 
Insein said:
I believe you are but not for the reasons that are given (all Covid). I believe it has a lot more to do with administration cutting budgets, cutting staff, squeezing capacity to it's limits, extending shifts, overworking remaining staff and then begging for government relief to bail out their mismanagement. This was happening before Covid bit now it's being used as an excuse to implement worse government policies (mandating vaccines for those that don't want or need them). 

Understand that this is not an insult on front line workers and to say they are not working hard. This is to expose the lie that "hospitals are overwhelmed so mandatory jabs are needed for people to be able to go out in public."
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 How are you qualified/on the basis of what data have you determined we’re all being fed a lie?

Because I know a lot of hospital employees, myself included, whose experience is similar to Herb’s.

 
tymarsas said:
I never claimed anything. Just asking questions to try to understand the lack of flu diagnosis last year. If the claim is that PCR tests can't distinguish between covid and the flu, so a bunch of those positive tests are actually flu then I am interested in finding/learning the evidence for that.
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PCR testing can distinguish the two viruses. Or more accurately, two PCR tests, with probes to amplify virus specific genes for SARS-CoV-2 and influenza. Co-infection with both is vanishingly rare, and a positive test for one can’t be mistaken for the other.

But you can’t detect what you don’t test for. Early in the pandemic, tests for both were performed. But all the flu tests came back negative, so continued testing for influenza in the presence of a positive covid test became unnecessary. Those tests cost money, take time to process, and may delay instituting appropriate treatment for the actual diagnosis.

When a patient presents with symptoms of a disease and a test confirms the suspected diagnosis, it generally isn’t necessary to exclude all other diseases with some overlapping symptoms. Moreover, covid has many distinctive feature which make confusing it with flu unlikely.

 
Terminalxylem said:
But you can’t detect what you don’t test for. Early in the pandemic, tests for both were performed. But all the flu tests came back negative, so continued testing for influenza in the presence of a positive covid test became unnecessary. Those tests cost money, take time to process, and may delay instituting appropriate treatment for the actual diagnosis.

When a patient presents with symptoms of a disease and a test confirms the suspected diagnosis, it generally isn’t necessary to exclude all other diseases with some overlapping symptoms. Moreover, covid has many distinctive feature which make confusing it with flu unlikely.
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See, this is a reasonable theory along with the suggestion that people were avoiding health care facilities during the pandemic so they never got tested. Certainly more plausible than a global conspiracy to suppress influenza numbers and amplify covid numbers.  Or that the lab tests couldn't distinguish between 2 very different viruses.

I will note that neither poster offered up any evidence of these theories although they are easily proven if one had access to the test procedures or the stats for health care visits. 

 
The General said:
Yes. As much as their transmission would allow.

Before you bring it up Covid is not the flu - that was the whole point of why governments across the world shut things down. 
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for 40,000 deaths shutting down and we're at what, 830,000 right now and no shutdowns

what were the shutdowns for again ?

the flus doesn't have to make a comeback, its been here, has always been here, will always be here .... it will never be eradicated, beaten, etc 

like covid

 
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Stealthycat said:
for 40,000 deaths shutting down and we're at what, 830,000 right now and no shutdowns

what were the shutdowns for again ?

the flus doesn't have to make a comeback, its been here, has always been here, will always be here .... it will never be eradicated, beaten, etc 

like covid
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No idea what your point is or how it relates to this topic.

 
Stealthycat said:
for 40,000 deaths shutting down and we're at what, 830,000 right now and no shutdowns

what were the shutdowns for again ?

the flus doesn't have to make a comeback, its been here, has always been here, will always be here .... it will never be eradicated, beaten, etc 

like covid
Click to expand...
We shut down so that we didn’t have 3-5m deaths in 2020.  Which is what we were looking at without improved treatments, vaccines, ability to evade infection surge/overwhelming our healthcare system, etc.

 
Alex P Keaton said:
We shut down so that we didn’t have 3-5m deaths in 2020.  Which is what we were looking at without improved treatments, vaccines, ability to evade infection surge/overwhelming our healthcare system, etc.
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no, that's not the reason at all or shutdowns would have continued 

the flu hasn't made a comeback - I can't believe anyone is buying that 

 
Stealthycat said:
no, that's not the reason at all or shutdowns would have continued 

the flu hasn't made a comeback - I can't believe anyone is buying that 
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Why do you think there were shutdowns?

Flu numbers are up from last year’s almost non-existent numbers as expected but we’ll see where it settles.

 
supermike80 said:
Shutdowns were implemented to destroy the economy and sway people from voting Trump.   Its interesting to see now that Michigan has the most daily cases, ever, there is no talk about shutting the state down.   Why?
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Yeah. Shut downs all over then world were about Trump.  Deep red states shut down to hurt Trump.

Why are they not now?  Because there would be riots in the streets if we try to shut down again.  People already getting violent about vaccines and masks.

 
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supermike80 said:
Shutdowns were implemented to destroy the economy and sway people from voting Trump.   Its interesting to see now that Michigan has the most daily cases, ever, there is no talk about shutting the state down.   Why?
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Tinhat stuff to the bolded.

We had no clue what we were dealing with so people in charge of others well being made difficult decisions.

Hospitalizations go up and you will see some measure of lockdowns again. It’s not complicated. 

 
supermike80 said:
Shutdowns were implemented to destroy the economy and sway people from voting Trump.   Its interesting to see now that Michigan has the most daily cases, ever, there is no talk about shutting the state down.   Why?
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Hmmm

Unrelated question.  US covid deaths are falling while more people develop improved covid resistance after catching omicron.  So if I get omicron (and I'm vaxxed) I'll be covid superman...win.  If an unvaxed person gets omicron...well they just got vaxxed but don't have to worry about a chip being implanted in them...win?

I'm not advocating that we all start sneezing in each others faces and not trying to downplay the impact the hospitalizations are having on the healthcare system.  But are the odds not high that this will better prepare us for the next more deadly strain?

 
djmich said:
Hmmm

Unrelated question.  US covid deaths are falling while more people develop improved covid resistance after catching omicron.  So if I get omicron (and I'm vaxxed) I'll be covid superman...win.  If an unvaxed person gets omicron...well they just got vaxxed but don't have to worry about a chip being implanted in them...win?

I'm not advocating that we all start sneezing in each others faces and not trying to downplay the impact the hospitalizations are having on the healthcare system.  But are the odds not high that this will better prepare us for the next more deadly strain?
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I suggested this very same a week or two ago and took 🔥. I hope it goes better for you, as I think you are absolutely on to something here. 

 
djmich said:
Hmmm

Unrelated question.  US covid deaths are falling while more people develop improved covid resistance after catching omicron.  So if I get omicron (and I'm vaxxed) I'll be covid superman...win.  If an unvaxed person gets omicron...well they just got vaxxed but don't have to worry about a chip being implanted in them...win?

I'm not advocating that we all start sneezing in each others faces and not trying to downplay the impact the hospitalizations are having on the healthcare system.  But are the odds not high that this will better prepare us for the next more deadly strain?
Click to expand...
Or, you could just cut out the middle-virus and get vaccination up to date.

Newly boosted…win.

Newly vaccinated…win.

Hospitals and healthcare workers…win.

Long covid sufferers…win?

Fortunately, there’s no guarantee there will be a new, deadlier strain. But a large swath of our population opting out of vaccination guarantees more death and debility from covid, far outweighing any potential downside of the shots.

 
Terminalxylem said:
Or, you could just cut out the middle-virus and get vaccination up to date.

Newly boosted…win.

Newly vaccinated…win.

Hospitals and healthcare workers…win.

Long covid sufferers…win?

Fortunately, there’s no guarantee there will be a new, deadlier strain. But a large swath of our population opting out of vaccination guarantees more death and debility from covid, far outweighing any potential downside of the shots.
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I’m not sure where you surmised that I was advocating to not get vaccinated?

 
djmich said:
Well then based on your response I can only conclude you didn’t understand the point of my original post.  But thanks for unnecessarily reinforcing that vaccinations are good.
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An alternate conclusion is you didn’t communicate your point effectively. Or I understood your post, but felt it undermined a much more important message: widespread vaccination is the best way to improve our odds against omicron, and future strains. Although it may seem completely obvious to you, I’m confident others can benefit from such reinforcement.

 
Terminalxylem said:
An alternate conclusion is you didn’t communicate your point effectively. Or I understood your post, but felt it undermined a much more important message: widespread vaccination is the best way to improve our odds against omicron, and future strains. Although it may seem completely obvious to you, I’m confident others can benefit from such reinforcement.
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Lol, yah I’m sure you made a difference Captain America.  But thanks for admitting you didn’t bother responding to the content of the post.

 
Insein said:
I clarified that some might be overwhelmed but by large most are not. Definitely not to the crisis level we're being told is happening. 

Also which counties? I'm curious as to what the numbers show. 
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The first was in Bel Aire, which is up close to Pennsylvania, the second was eastern shore area. I believe we have 2 more now, both near Baltimore.

Maryland is a highly vaccinated state though. While prior infection and vaccines generated antibodies that are having trouble recognizing Omicron due to mutations on the spike protein, it is looking like the t-cells prior infection and vaccines generated are doing a decent job recognizing it and that is keeping most of them out of the hospital. I saw Larry Hogan (on TV so no link) yesterday say that Maryland was 92% vaccinated, and that the unvaccinated 8% was accounting for 75% of our ICU patients right now.

I just don't think the math we're seeing will bear out well in places with low vaccinations rates. Maryland is going to come through this okay, because we have way more hospitals than the 4 that are having capacity issues.

 
The General said:
Tinhat stuff to the bolded.

We had no clue what we were dealing with so people in charge of others well being made difficult decisions.

Hospitalizations go up and you will see some measure of lockdowns again. It’s not complicated. 
Click to expand...
Maybe..However I will counter the democrats were frustrated that Trump was hanging his hat on a strong economy and it irritated them.  Yes they didn't know how to handle the pandemic and I agree they completely screwed it up, however I am more than confident to say they knew the economy would take a massive hit and that didn't bother them all that much if it meant it hurt Trump's chances at reelection.

It might be a tad more complicated than you think...But generally those in power hope most Americans think things aren't very complicated.  

 
Went to several places over the Holidays that surprisingly asked for proof of vaccination.

Good news is my vaccination card with the second dose over 9 months ago works even though we know it doesn't' last that long.  As usual people aren't smart enough to enforce even what they think might work.

 
tonydead said:
Went to several places over the Holidays that surprisingly asked for proof of vaccination.

Good news is my vaccination card with the second dose over 9 months ago works even though we know it doesn't' last that long.  As usual people aren't smart enough to enforce even what they think might work.
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But do they FEEL better?

 
supermike80 said:
Maybe..However I will counter the democrats were frustrated that Trump was hanging his hat on a strong economy and it irritated them.  Yes they didn't know how to handle the pandemic and I agree they completely screwed it up, however I am more than confident to say they knew the economy would take a massive hit and that didn't bother them all that much if it meant it hurt Trump's chances at reelection.

It might be a tad more complicated than you think...But generally those in power hope most Americans think things aren't very complicated.  
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Sorry not buying your premise. Did other countries shut down to hurt Trump’s chances also?

Trump said it would be over by Easter. These people are all making best guesses, looking at stats, trying to avoid disaster on their watch - which would be hospitals overflowing. If Omicron were to do this, shutdowns would happen again. Luckily it’s looking very much like that will not occur. 

 
The General said:
Sorry not buying your premise. Did other countries shut down to hurt Trump’s chances also?

Trump said it would be over by Easter. These people are all making best guesses, looking at stats, trying to avoid disaster on their watch - which would be hospitals overflowing. If Omicron were to do this, shutdowns would happen again. Luckily it’s looking very much like that will not occur. 
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Why would other countries shut down to hurt Trump?  That doesn't make any sense.  

 
supermike80 said:
Why would other countries shut down to hurt Trump?  That doesn't make any sense.  
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That’s the point. They shutdown because it was a fluid, dangerous situation that no one knew what was going on. Just like we did here. 

Hurting Trump’s economy or whatever wasn’t a consideration. 

 
The General said:
That’s the point. They shutdown because it was a fluid, dangerous situation that no one knew what was going on. Just like we did here. 

Hurting Trump’s economy or whatever wasn’t a consideration. 
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Well first of all I am not up on why every country did what they did but if you are, kudos.,

Second I didn't say it was the primary reason, but I did say it was thought about and the democrats didn't mind the impact.  

 
supermike80 said:
Well first of all I am not up on why every country did what they did but if you are, kudos.,

Second I didn't say it was the primary reason, but I did say it was thought about and the democrats didn't mind the impact.  
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Didn’t think global shutdown in 2020 was that unknown. 

In any case, using something as a political hammer isn’t exactly a shock is it? Pointing out the other guy sucks, the country is falling apart, etc seems to be like 90% of the game plan. I’d suspect we’ll see that type of behavior for the rest of time.

That’s a giant leap from shutting down an economy to achieve a political end. 

 
The General said:
Didn’t think global shutdown in 2020 was that unknown. 

In any case, using something as a political hammer isn’t exactly a shock is it? Pointing out the other guy sucks, the country is falling apart, etc seems to be like 90% of the game plan. I’d suspect we’ll see that type of behavior for the rest of time.

That’s a giant leap from shutting down an economy to achieve a political end. 
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You keep mis representing what I said so I will leave it alone at this point.

 
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