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Follow the leader.... (1 Viewer)

Polish Hammer

made of glass
Well, this will be a very un-scientific post, but I wanted to share my thoughts/experiences with you folks. A few years ago my league went from DEF teams to IDP. We only start 1 DL, 1 LB, 1 DB so it isn't all that deep. However, there are serious opportunities for points with our system. Specifically, you get 1 pt/tackle (2 for DL), 3 for a sack, 6 for an INT, and 2 for a pass deflection. I state this not as a hidden "assistant coach" bit of info, but rather to set the table for my conclusions. If your league scores similarly, this may be of interest to you.

I decided that I would not fall in love with any one player and would freely add/drop my IDP guys as necessary this year. After the draft I had Tamba Hali, Merriman, and Kerry Rhodes and I was pretty happy. By the time week three rolled around I decided it was time for a change. I first looked at DL since Jared Allen was coming back and I thought there might be a dropoff for Hali. Having paid attention to the Lions (CJ owner) I realized that Kitna was getting sacked quite a bit. Trent Cole was suddenly on my radar (Philly homer here). I happened to read something on FBG that backed up my hunch and I went with him. The results were great. In realizing that the Lions gave Kitna little protection, I have "followed the leader" and used the DL with the best pass rush (IMO) against the Lions in weeks 4 and 5 as well. Both Mark Anderson and Andre Carter racked up sacks and performed well for me. Aside from this week (Lions bye) I will probably keep following this strategy as long as I can get a reasonably good DL facing them (or until Kitna gets some protection).

My next step was to begin today, and it was to find a replacement for my current DB, Ronde Barber. I figured that I should look at who are the league leaders in INTs (Drew Brees, Derek Anderson). Then, I would see whether it was primarily safeties or CBs that were picking off their passes. Turns out the answer is neither! Both of them have had a large chunk of their INTs go to opposing LBs. This week Brees faces SEA while Anderson goes against MIA. For SEA, Tatupu and Peterson are both showing up as potential big games against Brees. I still need to learn a little more about them and see who is more in coverage, but Peterson could also add to his already high sack total with the woes the Saints OL has been experiencing. The MIA matchup versus the Browns is tougher. None of their LBs stand out as having nice potential to pick one off. And frankly, I don't know enough about their LBs to really make an educated guess. If anyone here can enlighten me, feel free.

Well, that's it. I just wanted to share that with you all. If anyone has any insights, conflicting opinions, suggestions for other trends to watch out for (or players) or even thoughts on how to better apply this strategy to DBs, feel free to chime in.

*Side note, I remember last year people discussed a little bit about home games in Philly having more generous Pass Deflection stats than other stadiums...has that been proven out one way or another? Anyone know of any QBs that tend to have lots of passes deflected (not necessarily at the line of scrimmage....maybe they just throw into coverage or multi coverage more often)?

 
There is something out here on PD's in Philly. It also covers tackling stats, which have some interesting trends, specifically including MIA. One may want to look at Zach Thomas in MIA as a possiblity. He is a tackle machine, and could get a pick this week with the tendencies. Plus MIA was #2-3 in PD's

Here's the thread:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=332835

 
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