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Any update? I'm ready to win another lifetime membership
Thanks. I guess I was thinking about the contest for everyone (not just subscribers). Is there going to be another one of those?
Since the 12-team format started in 1990, the average is 39.5.
You are the mad scientist genius of probability tables.
Assuming you picked the over, you probably just screwed yourself out of quite a few points in the contest. The line shifted quite a bit by not waiting 30 minutes to post this.
Nah, I picked "NO". Players Last year- 43, year before- 34, year before- 32Assuming you picked the over, you probably just screwed yourself out of quite a few points in the contest. The line shifted quite a bit by not waiting 30 minutes to post this.
Right, but the last 4 years averaged a little below 40. The defensive TD's seem to make the difference.Assuming you picked the over, you probably just screwed yourself out of quite a few points in the contest. The line shifted quite a bit by not waiting 30 minutes to post this.
That makes more sense. I don't see why you wouldn't take the over with such a big low risk/high reward though.Nah, I picked "NO". Players Last year- 43, year before- 34, year before- 32Assuming you picked the over, you probably just screwed yourself out of quite a few points in the contest. The line shifted quite a bit by not waiting 30 minutes to post this.
I,m bummed!! I was just getting ready to submit my entry and saw that the comtest closed at 12:00 noon eastern. I thought i had until kick-off to submit my entry.I know, my fault, but I,m still bummed.Islanders
Well now that the contest is closed what was the crazy values?
He's been calculating everything since the close of the contest. Give him some time. But 3 of the good values I know of would be choosing YES to "Will all four games in the divisional round be won by the home team? last 3 years they were 2-2,2-2,2-2. And choosing YES to "Will there be at least one game in which the winning team turns the ball over 4 or more times?" And choosing NO to "Will there be at least one made field goal of 51 yards or longer in the postseason?"Big payoff on all of those.
I'll post more later, but the biggest two are the last two.Since 2000, only 32% of all games feature at least one rushing TD of 10 yards or more. A little less than half feature a passing TD of 25 or more.Just say no!
So you're saying I've maximized my payout by answering yes to both?
It happened seven times in 2008. Since 2000, the winning team has had 4 or more giveaways in 3.5% of all games. (This includes only regular season games, I'll leave it to you to speculate whether playoff games are substantially different.)So in a given game, it's about a 96.5% chance of this NOT happening. So the chances of it NOT happening in 11 games (assuming independence) is .965^11, which is 67.6%. I think YES was the smart money on this one.
Apparently there is a nontrivial difference between 50-yarders and 51-yarders (and don't think the Turk didn't know it before constructing the question)NO on the 51-yard field goal is horrible value. It's been 18 or 19 years since there's hasn't been at least 1 50-yarder kicked (I'll dig up how many years it was 50 on the nose that was the longest to get the 51-yard true count.As of the time I made I picks, I found that I went against the majority 20 times out of 35. Lotsa good pot oddsLooking forward to the Turk's analysis!
-QG
+------+--------------+| year | 51_+_yarder? |+------+--------------+| 1990 | yes || 1991 | yes || 1992 | yes || 1993 | yes || 1994 | yes || 1995 | yes || 1996 | no || 1997 | yes || 1998 | yes || 1999 | no || 2000 | no || 2001 | no || 2002 | yes || 2003 | yes || 2004 | yes || 2005 | no || 2006 | yes || 2007 | no |+------+--------------++------+--------------+| year | 50_+_yarder? |+------+--------------+| 1990 | yes || 1991 | yes || 1992 | yes || 1993 | yes || 1994 | yes || 1995 | yes || 1996 | yes || 1997 | yes || 1998 | yes || 1999 | yes || 2000 | yes || 2001 | yes || 2002 | yes || 2003 | yes || 2004 | yes || 2005 | yes || 2006 | yes || 2007 | yes |+------+--------------+
+------+------------------------+| year | at_least_3_2-pointers? |+------+------------------------+| 1994 | no || 1995 | yes || 1996 | yes || 1997 | no || 1998 | no || 1999 | no || 2000 | no || 2001 | no || 2002 | yes || 2003 | no || 2005 | no || 2006 | yes || 2007 | no |+------+------------------------++------+------------------------+------------+| year | at_least_40_TD_scorers | TD_scorers |+------+------------------------+------------+| 1990 | no | 36 || 1991 | no | 36 || 1992 | yes | 43 || 1993 | no | 39 || 1994 | yes | 43 || 1995 | yes | 48 || 1996 | no | 39 || 1997 | no | 32 || 1998 | no | 35 || 1999 | yes | 40 || 2000 | no | 35 || 2001 | yes | 41 || 2002 | yes | 49 || 2003 | no | 35 || 2004 | yes | 48 || 2005 | no | 33 || 2006 | no | 35 || 2007 | yes | 44 |+------+------------------------+------------+woulda been good from 50
not really but I was thinking about that when I heard it on the radio.Anyway here's my picks, in 5 question groups:If I was in the minority (based on latest unofficial counts) I've put the letter in CAPS1 to 5: N y Y n y6 to 10: Y y Y n n11 to 15: N N N N Y16 to 20: N N n Y N21 to 25: n N Y Y y26 to 30: y y N y N31 to 35: n y n N y 19 picks of the underdog by me21 of the 35 Qs have a majority of yes (provisionally)Just under 53% of the total picks were yes.If someone guessed yes and got all correct (based on the provisional numbers) they'd get 13,678.54 points. If someone guessed no and got all correct (based on the provisional numbers) they'd get 15,224.07 points.If someone went with the majority every time and got all correct they'd get 9,718.98 points. (Provisionally)If someone went with the minority every time and got all correct they'd get 19,183.63 points. (Provisionally)If I get them all right I'll win with 14,490.48 (Provisionally)Will be fun 
-QG
on the novel idea.
11 now
This question has already been answered..."Will at least three games in the wildcard round be won by the visiting teams?"The correct answer was "No". Both home teams won today.If you answered "No", you earned 330.36 .... like I did.
Tennessee needs to win the Superbowl for the 'yes' voters here.
I'd be interested to know what people saw in this one at approximately even point yields? at 50/50 splits across the board it only occurs 5/16. Tommorows away teams have ~3 point line spreads in their favor, missed what todays were. but for the even yield the away teams would need in general a 11:5 likely hood of winning (68% chance)? I almost feel stupid typing this because it seems so out of whack, but its late so forgive if my math is crazy talk.This question has already been answered..."Will at least three games in the wildcard round be won by the visiting teams?"The correct answer was "No". Both home teams won today.If you answered "No", you earned 330.36 .... like I did.
