Football Outsiders RB Rankings (1 Viewer)

[gianmarco]

Football Outsiders Rankings

Of note:

--Pierre Thomas at the top of this list. Again. Last year he was also top in DVOA, DYAR, and success rate (#7, #4, and #1 respectively).

--Jamaal Charles may indeed be the real deal

--Ryan Grant amazingly high

--Both Carolina RBs in the top 10

 

[Steed]

Marion Barber ahead of All Day and MJD is surprising.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Grant produces nto sure why people continue to sell him short

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Grant produces nto sure why people continue to sell him short

Agreed. It helps that teams have to respect the pass, but Grant is not exactly playing with an aweomse O line either. He earns a lot of his yardage and is very dependable week in and week out as an NFL rb.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I think this table gives you a much better read on a RB's true quality. Summarizing the results... the first column is FO's estimate of yards/rush attributable to the O-line, the second column is yards/carry for RBs on the team, and the third column is RB yards/carry less FO's estimated O-line yards/carry. The results line up very very well with RB talent IMO:

TEN 4.01 5.29 1.28 (Chris Johnson)

CAR 4.03 4.93 0.90 (DeAngelo/Stewart)

KC 3.6 4.34 0.74 (Charles - the real deal indeed)

SF 3.5 4.22 0.72 (Gore)

BAL 4.42 4.97 0.55 (Rice)

DAL 4.47 4.99 0.52 (Felix and Barber)

STL 3.86 4.38 0.52 (SJax)

JAC 4.25 4.55 0.30 (MJD)

SEA 3.91 4.15 0.24

TB 3.58 3.8 0.22

NYJ 4.28 4.48 0.20

PIT 4.13 4.32 0.19

ARI 4.09 4.27 0.18

MIN 4.01 4.18 0.17

CIN 3.97 4.14 0.17

NO 4.48 4.62 0.14

ATL 4.26 4.36 0.10

BUF 4.19 4.29 0.10

DET 3.64 3.72 0.08

OAK 3.97 4.02 0.05

NYG 4.15 4.19 0.04

CHI 4.02 4.04 0.02

DEN 4.3 4.27 (0.03)

PHI 4.3 4.25 (0.05) (Weaver, McCoy and an injured Westbrook)

MIA 4.5 4.44 (0.06) (hurt by QB carries from the wildcat?)

CLE 4.01 3.93 (0.08) (presumably Harrison was better)

NE 4.39 4.29 (0.10) (Maroney et al)

GB 4.29 4.17 (0.12) (Grant - sorry, he's just not that good)

IND 3.93 3.8 (0.13) (Addai/Brown)

WAS 3.92 3.72 (0.20) (Portis and the Portisettes)

HOU 4.1 3.73 (0.37) (the whole mess of them)

SD 4.02 3.54 (0.48) (Sorry LT - you have in fact lost it)

 

[gonzobill5]

I think this table gives you a much better read on a RB's true quality. Summarizing the results... the first column is FO's estimate of yards/rush attributable to the O-line, the second column is yards/carry for RBs on the team, and the third column is RB yards/carry less FO's estimated O-line yards/carry. The results line up very very well with RB talent IMO:

TEN 4.01 5.29 1.28 (Chris Johnson)

CAR 4.03 4.93 0.90 (DeAngelo/Stewart)

KC 3.6 4.34 0.74 (Charles - the real deal indeed)

SF 3.5 4.22 0.72 (Gore)

BAL 4.42 4.97 0.55 (Rice)

DAL 4.47 4.99 0.52 (Felix and Barber)

STL 3.86 4.38 0.52 (SJax)

JAC 4.25 4.55 0.30 (MJD)

SEA 3.91 4.15 0.24

TB 3.58 3.8 0.22

NYJ 4.28 4.48 0.20

PIT 4.13 4.32 0.19

ARI 4.09 4.27 0.18

MIN 4.01 4.18 0.17

CIN 3.97 4.14 0.17

NO 4.48 4.62 0.14

ATL 4.26 4.36 0.10

BUF 4.19 4.29 0.10

DET 3.64 3.72 0.08

OAK 3.97 4.02 0.05

NYG 4.15 4.19 0.04

CHI 4.02 4.04 0.02

DEN 4.3 4.27 (0.03)

PHI 4.3 4.25 (0.05) (Weaver, McCoy and an injured Westbrook)

MIA 4.5 4.44 (0.06) (hurt by QB carries from the wildcat?)

CLE 4.01 3.93 (0.08) (presumably Harrison was better)

NE 4.39 4.29 (0.10) (Maroney et al)

GB 4.29 4.17 (0.12) (Grant - sorry, he's just not that good)

IND 3.93 3.8 (0.13) (Addai/Brown)

WAS 3.92 3.72 (0.20) (Portis and the Portisettes)

HOU 4.1 3.73 (0.37) (the whole mess of them)

SD 4.02 3.54 (0.48) (Sorry LT - you have in fact lost it)

I really like the idea, but why are you taking a statistic that tries to nail down the effectiveness of a team's RBs and attribute it to just one of the RBs? Ryan Grant averaged 4.4, why measure him with the team average of 4.17? Also, why do you want to tease out the OLine anyway?

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I think this table gives you a much better read on a RB's true quality. Summarizing the results... the first column is FO's estimate of yards/rush attributable to the O-line, the second column is yards/carry for RBs on the team, and the third column is RB yards/carry less FO's estimated O-line yards/carry. The results line up very very well with RB talent IMO:

TEN 4.01 5.29 1.28 (Chris Johnson)

CAR 4.03 4.93 0.90 (DeAngelo/Stewart)

KC 3.6 4.34 0.74 (Charles - the real deal indeed)

SF 3.5 4.22 0.72 (Gore)

BAL 4.42 4.97 0.55 (Rice)

DAL 4.47 4.99 0.52 (Felix and Barber)

STL 3.86 4.38 0.52 (SJax)

JAC 4.25 4.55 0.30 (MJD)

SEA 3.91 4.15 0.24

TB 3.58 3.8 0.22

NYJ 4.28 4.48 0.20

PIT 4.13 4.32 0.19

ARI 4.09 4.27 0.18

MIN 4.01 4.18 0.17

CIN 3.97 4.14 0.17

NO 4.48 4.62 0.14

ATL 4.26 4.36 0.10

BUF 4.19 4.29 0.10

DET 3.64 3.72 0.08

OAK 3.97 4.02 0.05

NYG 4.15 4.19 0.04

CHI 4.02 4.04 0.02

DEN 4.3 4.27 (0.03)

PHI 4.3 4.25 (0.05) (Weaver, McCoy and an injured Westbrook)

MIA 4.5 4.44 (0.06) (hurt by QB carries from the wildcat?)

CLE 4.01 3.93 (0.08) (presumably Harrison was better)

NE 4.39 4.29 (0.10) (Maroney et al)

GB 4.29 4.17 (0.12) (Grant - sorry, he's just not that good)

IND 3.93 3.8 (0.13) (Addai/Brown)

WAS 3.92 3.72 (0.20) (Portis and the Portisettes)

HOU 4.1 3.73 (0.37) (the whole mess of them)

SD 4.02 3.54 (0.48) (Sorry LT - you have in fact lost it)

I really like the idea, but why are you taking a statistic that tries to nail down the effectiveness of a team's RBs and attribute it to just one of the RBs? Ryan Grant averaged 4.4, why measure him with the team average of 4.17? Also, why do you want to tease out the OLine anyway?

Honestly, I just didn't want to take the time to sort out the individual backs. But it's also possible that if you limit the RB yards to just one RB it would change the O-line stats, and I have no idea how to account for that.Specific to Grant... a lot of the guys in front of him would be bumped up too if you used their Y/C instead of the teams. I may have to have a go at this now - you've got me curious.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Ok... player, yards/carry, yards/carry O-line, net yards/carry for the RB (100+ carries). Looks pretty good overall...

Jamaal Charles	 5.89 	 3.60 	 2.29 Chris Johnson	 5.60 	 4.01 	 1.59 Justin Forsett	 5.43 	 3.91 	 1.52 Felix Jones	 5.91 	 4.47 	 1.44 Frank Gore	 4.89 	 3.50 	 1.39 DeAngelo Williams	 5.17 	 4.03 	 1.14 Jonathan Stewart	 5.13 	 4.03 	 1.10 Correll Buckhalter	 5.35 	 4.30 	 1.05 Pierre Thomas	 5.39 	 4.48 	 0.91 Ray Rice	 5.27 	 4.42 	 0.85 Michael Bush	 4.79 	 3.97 	 0.82 Shonn Greene	 4.96 	 4.28 	 0.68 Michael Turner	 4.89 	 4.26 	 0.63 Ahmad Bradshaw	 4.77 	 4.15 	 0.62 Willis McGahee	 4.99 	 4.42 	 0.57 Steven Jackson	 4.38 	 3.86 	 0.52 Rashard Mendenhall	 4.58 	 4.13 	 0.45 Jerome Harrison	 4.44 	 4.01 	 0.43 Chris Wells	 4.51 	 4.09 	 0.42 Adrian Peterson	 4.41 	 4.01 	 0.40 Cadillac Williams	 3.90 	 3.58 	 0.32 Fred Jackson	 4.46 	 4.19 	 0.27 Maurice Jones-Drew	 4.46 	 4.25 	 0.21 Cedric Benson	 4.16 	 3.97 	 0.19 Ryan Grant	 4.44 	 4.29 	 0.15 Ricky Williams	 4.65 	 4.50 	 0.15 Tim Hightower	 4.18 	 4.09 	 0.09 Jason Snelling	 4.32 	 4.26 	 0.06 Clinton Portis	 3.98 	 3.92 	 0.06 Derrick Ward	 3.60 	 3.58 	 0.02 Thomas Jones	 4.22 	 4.28 	 (0.06)Ronnie Brown	 4.41 	 4.50 	 (0.09)Marion Barber	 4.36 	 4.47 	 (0.11)Joseph Addai	 3.78 	 3.93 	 (0.15)Justin Fargas	 3.81 	 3.97 	 (0.16)Julius Jones	 3.75 	 3.91 	 (0.16)LeSean McCoy	 4.11 	 4.30 	 (0.19)Kevin Smith	 3.44 	 3.64 	 (0.20)Ryan Moats	 3.86 	 4.10 	 (0.24)Matt Forte	 3.60 	 4.02 	 (0.42)Brandon Jacobs	 3.73 	 4.15 	 (0.42)Marshawn Lynch	 3.75 	 4.19 	 (0.44)Knowshon Moreno	 3.83 	 4.30 	 (0.47)Laurence Maroney	 3.90 	 4.39 	 (0.49)Jamal Lewis	 3.50 	 4.01 	 (0.51)Darren McFadden	 3.42 	 3.97 	 (0.55)Mike Bell	 3.80 	 4.48 	 (0.68)LaDainian Tomlinson	 3.27 	 4.02 	 (0.75)Steve Slaton	 3.34 	 4.10 	 (0.76)Larry Johnson	 2.97 	 3.97 	 (1.00)

 

[gonzobill5]

i think this is very valuable for rbs changing teams.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Very interesting stuff.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

You'll never get any system like this that ranks everyone right, but boy does Forsett really stick out like a sore thumb for me on that list. Really bugs me.

 

[SSOG]

You'll never get any system like this that ranks everyone right, but boy does Forsett really stick out like a sore thumb for me on that list. Really bugs me.

Makes perfect sense, though. Basically, an RB that radically outperformed every other RB on the team will shoot up those rankings, since the stinky-stinky-poo RBs will drag down the team's average. Julius Jones and Edgerrin James had 223 carries for 788 yards (3.53 ypc). Justin Forsett had 114 carries for 619 yards (5.43 ypc). You average 1.9 more yards per carry than any other RB on your team and you're going to rate very, very highly in this metric.To some extent, that phenomenon is what's driving Jamaal Charles so far up the list, too. It's not just that Charles averaged an awesome 5.9 yards per carry... it's that Charles averaged an awesome 5.9 yards per carry on a team where Larry Johnson averaged just 2.7 yards per carry. Johnson was so terrible early in the year that the metric thinks that KC's O-line is historically awful, and then when Charles rushes for 6 ypc behind it, the metric thinks he's the ******* lovechild of Barry Sanders and Earl Campbell.

 

[D'OHtis]

he's the ******* lovechild of Barry Sanders and Earl Campbell.

 

[gianmarco]

You'll never get any system like this that ranks everyone right, but boy does Forsett really stick out like a sore thumb for me on that list. Really bugs me.

Makes perfect sense, though. Basically, an RB that radically outperformed every other RB on the team will shoot up those rankings, since the stinky-stinky-poo RBs will drag down the team's average. Julius Jones and Edgerrin James had 223 carries for 788 yards (3.53 ypc). Justin Forsett had 114 carries for 619 yards (5.43 ypc). You average 1.9 more yards per carry than any other RB on your team and you're going to rate very, very highly in this metric.To some extent, that phenomenon is what's driving Jamaal Charles so far up the list, too. It's not just that Charles averaged an awesome 5.9 yards per carry... it's that Charles averaged an awesome 5.9 yards per carry on a team where Larry Johnson averaged just 2.7 yards per carry. Johnson was so terrible early in the year that the metric thinks that KC's O-line is historically awful, and then when Charles rushes for 6 ypc behind it, the metric thinks he's the ******* lovechild of Barry Sanders and Earl Campbell.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

From 2007:

DVOA	Y/C	OL Y/C  Net RB      Jerious Norwood	  24.50%   6.00	3.42	2.58

 

[CalBear]

:( i think this is very valuable for rbs changing teams.

Top 4 from 2008: D.Williams, B.Jacobs, C.Portis, D.Ward. If you're using this for prediction, it's looking pretty weak. R.Grant at -19, C.Benson at -35. Football stats just don't work the same way baseball hitting/pitching stats do; too many variables.

 

[_lurker_]

My issue is that Denver's DEF ranking wasn't anywhere near a true reflection of how good they were in the last game of the season. They have no depth and the starters were worn out but good.

So is Charles' numbers skewed cuz they came against a team that was ranked much higher than reality?

 

[JDub15]

i think this is very valuable for rbs changing teams.

Top 4 from 2008: D.Williams, B.Jacobs, C.Portis, D.Ward. If you're using this for prediction, it's looking pretty weak. R.Grant at -19, C.Benson at -35. Football stats just don't work the same way baseball hitting/pitching stats do; too many variables.

Actually I just eyeballed the tables from 2008 and came up with some predictions for 2009 (before the season started) some turned out to be pretty good... The basic methodology was:High DVOA + Increased opportunity = breakout potentialLow DVOA + Decreased opportunity = high bust potentialNote: Sometimes you didn't even have to have high DVOA, because DVOA considers the running back in the system... if the system is bad then the running back's DVOA is going to be low. The best case of this is Thomas Jones 2007 vs. Thomas Jones 2008. In 2007 Jones had -11.3% DVOA (1,126 RY, 1 TD). The low DVOA was because the Jet's had no QB, o-line was injured and struggled... then in 2008 they added Alan Fenca, Tony Richardson, and Favre. Jones 2008 DVOA jumped to +11.9% (1,312 RY, 13 TDs).This case could have been applied to Benson to predict this year's breakout season, as he had a mediocre DOVA in a bad system, the system improved (Palmer healthy, O-line improved) and accordingly his DOVA went up. Based on this last season i came up with the following players to breakout (This was early in the year before some off-season movement): D. WardD. SprolesL. McCainP. ThomasC. BensonR. BrownF. JacksonS. JaxE. JamesP. HillisJ. CharlesB. JacobsK. SmithRun DMCM. BushJ. AddaiAnd the following to flame out:S. SlatonW. ParkerR. GrantA. BradshawM. BarberJ. LewisSome hits and misses both ways but not bad all in all... If we apply the same to this year (just eyeballing) then:Breakouts. Thomas (Pending on what they do with Bush)R. Rice (pending on what happens to Willis)J. CharlesA. BradshawF. JonesK. MorenoC. WellsM. TurnerS. GreeneM. TolbertIt's harder to do with WRs but if I had to predict one guy it would definitely be: Jacoby Jones, with 41.8% DVOA, and seems to have a starting spot for next year.

 

[JDub15]

From 2007:

DVOA	Y/C	OL Y/C  Net RB      Jerious Norwood	  24.50%   6.00	3.42	2.58

Yeah but you need to apply context to this... when they signed Michael Turner you knew that Norwood wasn't going to have a breakout year.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Fred Jackson ranked 21

Marshawn Lynch ranked 48

And lots of people still think that Lynch is the better RB.

 

[az_prof]

I think you have to be very careful about reading too much into this. It's a number. Is a good predictor of success? Hopefully someone on FBG staff will look at past years and DVOA and show us how good a measure it is; my first impression is that I don't trust it much.

 

[SSOG]

I think you have to be very careful about reading too much into this. It's a number. Is a good predictor of success? Hopefully someone on FBG staff will look at past years and DVOA and show us how good a measure it is; my first impression is that I don't trust it much.

DVOA is the perfect example of my old "don't use statistics to form opinions, use them to inform opinions" slogan. Don't look at DVOA and say "wow, Jamal Charles must be a beast!". Instead, watch Jamal Charles, decide if you think he's a beast, and then look at DVOA to see if there's some sort of statistical merit to your opinion. If there is, then awesome. If there isn't, then try and figure out why not, because either you're wrong, or the statistic is wrong... and most of the time, it's the statistic. There are just too many variables at play in football for a statistical model to trump a human observer more often than not.

My issue is that Denver's DEF ranking wasn't anywhere near a true reflection of how good they were in the last game of the season. They have no depth and the starters were worn out but good.So is Charles' numbers skewed cuz they came against a team that was ranked much higher than reality?

Charles' numbers aren't based on just the Denver game (especially because DVOA considered Denver a below-average rush defense). They're based on averaging a ridiculous 5.9 yards per carry over 190 carries. Jamaal Charles has the 4th highest single-season ypc of any RB with over 150 carries, behind only Jim Brown 1963 (6.4 ypc), Barry Sanders 1997 (6.13 ypc), and OJ Simpson 1973 (6.03). Obviously, something like that is going to result in some pretty lofty ratings.