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- Thread starter David Dodds
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SSOG
Moderator
I think FBGs is way too low on the Denver RBs again this season. I understand the reason WHY- it's hard to recommend an RB when you're uncertain who's going to be the go-to guy... but it's just way too low.
Consider: The highest Denver RB is Tatum Bell at 25th. The next highest Denver RB is Ron Dayne at 40th.
Last season, Mike Anderson finished the season ranked 10th, and Tatum Bell finished the season ranked 22nd. In other words, the WORSE of the two RBs performed better than the BEST of the two RBs in this year's rankings.
Based on last season's totals, if Denver's RBs finish ranked 25th and 40th this season, that means they will have combined for 222.6 fantasy points. That's 1806 TOTAL yards and 7 TOTAL TDs (including recieving numbers). Raise your hand if you think that Denver is going to finish with 1806 total yards and 7 total TDs from its top 2 RBs, a year removed from getting 2249 and 21 TDs from its top 2 RBs. Even if you think it's going to be a RBBC in Denver, the numbers just aren't adding up. Only Mark Levin has a Denver RB ranked inside the top 20. I think that's a mistake.
I also disagree with the order they're ranked (Bell ahead of Dayne), although that's another arguement. I think it's worth noting: only one writer has Dayne ranked ahead of Bell. Which writer? Cecil Lammey, the guy who's assigned to cover the Denver Broncos (and is therefore probably in the best position to know). I'm not saying anything beyond that, because that's another arguement entirely.
Anyway, to sum it up- I understand you guys don't want to endorse Denver's running game, but can we at least get some realistic projections for it?
Note: I really don't want to come off sounding like a squeaky wheel, because I think you guys run a top-notch site and very much enjoy your insight. I just think you guys are way off base in this one little thing.
Edit: Fact checking- Mike Brown and Maurile both had Dayne ranked ahead of Bell, and Mike Anderson had Tatum Bell at #17.
Consider: The highest Denver RB is Tatum Bell at 25th. The next highest Denver RB is Ron Dayne at 40th.
Last season, Mike Anderson finished the season ranked 10th, and Tatum Bell finished the season ranked 22nd. In other words, the WORSE of the two RBs performed better than the BEST of the two RBs in this year's rankings.
Based on last season's totals, if Denver's RBs finish ranked 25th and 40th this season, that means they will have combined for 222.6 fantasy points. That's 1806 TOTAL yards and 7 TOTAL TDs (including recieving numbers). Raise your hand if you think that Denver is going to finish with 1806 total yards and 7 total TDs from its top 2 RBs, a year removed from getting 2249 and 21 TDs from its top 2 RBs. Even if you think it's going to be a RBBC in Denver, the numbers just aren't adding up. Only Mark Levin has a Denver RB ranked inside the top 20. I think that's a mistake.
I also disagree with the order they're ranked (Bell ahead of Dayne), although that's another arguement. I think it's worth noting: only one writer has Dayne ranked ahead of Bell. Which writer? Cecil Lammey, the guy who's assigned to cover the Denver Broncos (and is therefore probably in the best position to know). I'm not saying anything beyond that, because that's another arguement entirely.
Anyway, to sum it up- I understand you guys don't want to endorse Denver's running game, but can we at least get some realistic projections for it?
Note: I really don't want to come off sounding like a squeaky wheel, because I think you guys run a top-notch site and very much enjoy your insight. I just think you guys are way off base in this one little thing.
Edit: Fact checking- Mike Brown and Maurile both had Dayne ranked ahead of Bell, and Mike Anderson had Tatum Bell at #17.
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SoloMatisse
Footballguy
Nice preliminary rankings guys. Thanks for the early look.
To comment on the Denver situation....it should be pointed out that the hardest rankings to consider are those of clear cut RBBCs. Noone really knows with certainty who will be the lead guy in Denver, or Indy, or Chicago as examples, and without any more relevant info than has already been provided, it appears the experts are a little reluctant to stick their collective necks out and give TJones or TBell or DRhodes or any of the other committe backs a top 10 ranking....even though top 10 seasons will be earned by atleast a few of these backs.
Personally, I appreciate the early rankings of the experts, but Id never sweat them being off on tough calls like those committe situations because this should really be used just as a guideline. Without a doubt, either Tatum Bell or Ron Dayne will be in or close to the top 10 this coming season....we all know this and it'll be up to each of us to decide which one will be the serious value pick. Right now, Id say Dayne would be odds on, but honestly....who wants to rank Ron Dayne anywhere near the top 10??
To comment on the Denver situation....it should be pointed out that the hardest rankings to consider are those of clear cut RBBCs. Noone really knows with certainty who will be the lead guy in Denver, or Indy, or Chicago as examples, and without any more relevant info than has already been provided, it appears the experts are a little reluctant to stick their collective necks out and give TJones or TBell or DRhodes or any of the other committe backs a top 10 ranking....even though top 10 seasons will be earned by atleast a few of these backs.
Personally, I appreciate the early rankings of the experts, but Id never sweat them being off on tough calls like those committe situations because this should really be used just as a guideline. Without a doubt, either Tatum Bell or Ron Dayne will be in or close to the top 10 this coming season....we all know this and it'll be up to each of us to decide which one will be the serious value pick. Right now, Id say Dayne would be odds on, but honestly....who wants to rank Ron Dayne anywhere near the top 10??
Dolfan
Footballguy
Something I'd like to see, and I know it's been mentioned before, but not sure what the official FBG guy response was, is a standard deviation column next to the ranking..
I would like a guy who is consistently ranked #10 by just about every FBG guy expert better than a guy who is all over the charts from #5 through #25, but averages #10...
Not sure, but this might help out with the Denver situation -- I'm just guessing their back's standard deviation would be high.
This is something that I could do myself in about 5 minutes, but I don't think it would take much effort on you guys' part either to have it for everyone to see..
Just a thought...
I would like a guy who is consistently ranked #10 by just about every FBG guy expert better than a guy who is all over the charts from #5 through #25, but averages #10...
Not sure, but this might help out with the Denver situation -- I'm just guessing their back's standard deviation would be high.
This is something that I could do myself in about 5 minutes, but I don't think it would take much effort on you guys' part either to have it for everyone to see..
Just a thought...
Mike Anderson
Footballguy
I see Bell as the better producer, and have him at 17. As (IF) we get a better picture, the Bronco RB is a top 10 RB in my mind, and someone will shot up (Might even be Dayne?). It's May. Maybe I need to pick Cec's brain a little.
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Sinrman
Footballguy
Taking a look at the QBs --
I just don't see why folks are pumping Palmer and Culpepper so high right now. Palmer will be lucky to start the season, and Culpepper would be lucky to play at all this season. Palmer, at least, didn't destroy his entire knee, and will definitely return before Culpepper. But I still don't see how some could STILL rank him #2 overall. Some were at least cautious with Culpepper, but as high as #11?!
Granted, it's still WAY early, but man that doesn't seem right...
I just don't see why folks are pumping Palmer and Culpepper so high right now. Palmer will be lucky to start the season, and Culpepper would be lucky to play at all this season. Palmer, at least, didn't destroy his entire knee, and will definitely return before Culpepper. But I still don't see how some could STILL rank him #2 overall. Some were at least cautious with Culpepper, but as high as #11?!
Granted, it's still WAY early, but man that doesn't seem right...
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Dolfan
Footballguy
Culpeper just got a very positive report from his doctor and Saban says he is running and throwing with a knee brace now..Taking a look at the QBs --
I just don't see why folks are pumping Palmer and Culpepper so high right now. Palmer will be lucky to start the season, and Culpepper would be lucky to play at all this season. Palmer, at least, didn't destroy his entire knee, and will definitely return before Culpepper. But I still don't see how some could STILL rank him #2 overall. Some were at least cautious with Culpepper, but as high as #11?!
Granted, it's still WAY early, but man that doesn't seem right...
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Mike Anderson
Footballguy
Palmer @ 17, Culpepper @ 18Taking a look at the QBs --
I just don't see why folks are pumping Palmer and Culpepper so high right now. Palmer will be lucky to start the season, and Culpepper would be lucky to play at all this season. Palmer, at least, didn't destroy his entire knee, and will definitely return before Culpepper. But I still don't see how some could STILL rank him #2 overall. Some were at least cautious with Culpepper, but as high as #11?!
Granted, it's still WAY early, but man that doesn't seem right...
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I wanted to rank them both (Certainly Culpepper) a lot lower. We need more info. The spin out of Miami is positive for Culpepper right now.Blackjacks
Footballguy
I like Hass as much as they next guy but I had him on my team last year year and after his 13-15 first half points he didn't throw in the second half. I'm not saying he couldn't put up #2 type #'s adding in the "after the superbowl year" for the NFC theory and that might change, also the Madeden Curse for Alexander. But as a owner last year I don't want to have Hass this year cause it was so frustrating last year watching a great first half and knowing that was it for him. Again, skill set I can put him at #2 but due to the oppurtunities I'll pass.
ScottNorwood
Footballcutie
Gates is a legit first round pick this year
Blackjacks
Footballguy
Can someone explain to me why Bledsoe is so far down? I don't have him in any league but he was top 5 last year and now he has TO. I would have to have him ranked in the top 3....but that's just me.
Blackjacks
Footballguy
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Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Blackjacks,That's a good question.
I had to think long and hard on that one, but I can't find anyone I'd have put him above. Bledsoe is going to do well and everyone expects his numbers to go up in Big D with the addition of TO - but I see it a different way.
HC Parcells likes to run the ball and grind out the yards and the clock. I see a run first and defense second team, much like Pittsburgh's philosophy last year. Will Bledsoe have a few 2 or possibly 3 TD games? Sure. But I see more 1 or 0 TD games in his 2006 season.
I could see Bledsoe approach the Top 10 but I don't know if I have him in that grouping by September.
BroadwayG
Footballguy
Possible reasons for decline in stats1. Age, mobility
2. Turnover on the offensive line
3. The Anthony Fasano pick - more 2 TE sets? more running?
4. Jones/Barber more experienced
Possible reasons for improvement in stats
1. TO
Really, if both TO and Bledsoe play all 16 games, I think he can put up similar numbers. I won't put any investment into that possibility this year.
KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
Mike Anderson
Footballguy
Bledsoe finished 6th last year by FBG scoring. I have him at 8. I see everyone I have in front of him as a better producer barring injury.
I love Bledsoe's situation with TO there, but I can't bring myself to put him above QBs that I know will at least be solid starting QBs (with the exception of the injured trio, who are above Bledsoe because they present just as much upside and are better players). His production dropped dramatically after the the O-line injuries mounted, and I don't trust the line to hold up. He's a terrific QB to take in the 7th/8th and combine with another solid option, but I wouldnt take him in my top 15.In reality, all the QBs from about 6-16 are closer than the numbers indicate and theres good room for healthy debate. All the more reason to wait on QB this year.
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Mark Wimer
Moderator
Hey Sharks,
As I have several rankings that are "outliers" compared to the others in this first cut of the rankings, I put together some commentary explaining my logic on the various players/situations as I see them:
****
QB Daunte Culpepper, ranked 30 on my board:
As Culpepper himself said recently: “I'm not going to predict, or rush myself or be unsmart about anything about it because I know it's a very sensitive injury. Only a couple people have ever had it and came back from it. I'm just glad to be making the progress that I'm making and hopefully it continues.” This gruesome knee injury (torn right ACL, MCL, and PCL) was suffered during an October 30th, 2005 game – it could take up to 2 years before the “old” Culpepper is back, and I’d be shocked to see him play more than half the season during 2006.
RB Steven Jackson, ranked 21 on my board:
This is not so much a case of me projecting Jackson to drop in production (I have him at 1100-1200 yards rushing, 8-9 TDs rushing with 250-300 yards receiving and 1-2 TDs), as it is seeing guys who finished below him last year - Jamal Lewis (25th, 2005), Kevin Jones (31st, 2005), Ahman Green (injured most of season), DeShaun Foster (splitting time with Stephen Davis, 24th, 2005), Carnell Williams (19th, 2005) – either coming back (Lewis, Green, Jones) or improving due to more experience/a better situation (Foster, Williams). I don’t think Jackson isn’t a fantasy starter, I just don’t think he’ll be a #1-caliber fantasy RB during 2006.
WR’s
WR Marvin Harrison, ranked 1 on my board:
With James exiting to Arizona and no settled “featured back”-caliber RB entering mini-camps and training camps, I believe that Manning will rely more on his top receiver this season. That would be Marvin Harrison. Getting more looks and more opportunities from Manning should boost Harrison to the top of the WR board. In addition, Terrell Owens and Steve Smith now have very capable counterparts across from them (Terry Glenn, Keyshawn Johnson) which should cause their numbers to dip enough to keep them from the #1 spot. We’re still in wait-and-see mode with Carson Palmer, which makes me a tad nervous for Chad Johnson. At this early juncture, I believe Harrison is the top WR on the fantasy board. 1200-1300 yards receiving, 12-13 TDs.
WR Santana Moss, ranked 32 on my board:
The Redskins added quality competition for touches in their WR stable this past off-season, with Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle-El coming over to Washington. David Patten and Chris Cooley are no slouches, although Patten was disappointing last year before tearing his meniscus cartilage and going on IR. Moss was unexciting for most of the second half of the season, except for week 16 – I believe with the upgraded WR stable, Moss sinks back towards the 1000-1100, 6-7 TDs level this season. 2005 (84/1483/9) was a career season for Moss, IMO.
WR Donald Driver, ranked 7 on my board:
Two 80+ catch seasons, yielding 84/1208/9 and 86/1221/5 (the second in very difficult circumstances, with practically no other credible receiving threats on the field for large chunks of the second half of the season during 2005) later, Javon Walker is in Denver and Driver is the clear #1 in Green Bay. Favre is back, he trusts Driver, and hopefully the rest of the offense can stay on the field this season. What’s not to like here? 1200-1300 receiving yards, 10-11 TDs for Driver this year, IMO.
TE’s
TE Vernon Davis, ranked 23 on my board:
Eric Johnson, while sidelined last year by a foot injury, is still on the roster. Is he the guy who put up 82/825/2 during 2004 again? – he’s said to be healthy and is fully participating in the off-season training regimen in SF. Davis is a rookie – Johnson has NFL experience. I think this is not a clear-cut situation, and the 2 could very well end up seeing some sort of split in touches (especially early in the season, while Davis gets acclimated to the speed of the pro game). I won’t rank Davis as a fantasy starter until I get a clearer picture of the situation in San Francisco between these two players. Add on top of the above the “Alex Smith or is he Ryan Leaf the 2nd?” situation and SF players in general are unexciting to me.
TE Ben Watson (36th on my board) and TE Ben Troupe (31st on my board) –
Similar situations for both of these guys – competing with Watson we have Daniel Graham (14 on my board) and competing with Troupe we have Erron Kinney (13th on my board).
Both Troupe and Kinney caught 55 balls last season (the Titans had a dearth of wide receivers last year). 55/530/4 for Troupe, 55/543/2 for Kinney – With the anticipated departure of McNair to Baltimore, it’s an open question which guy will be more in tune with Volek/Young during 2006, IMO.
Watson had 29/441/4 last year, vs. Graham’s 16/235/3 (struggled with shoulder problems late in the season); during 2004 it was Graham with 30/367/7 while Watson struggled through his rookie season (2/16/0 in1 game). I believe that it’s a toss up as to which guy is the more productive during 2006, given how New England spreads the ball.
TE Kellen Winslow, 30th on my board:
Essentially 2 full years away from the pro game, and 2 serious injuries later, he hasn’t lived up to his promise, and he makes horrible off-field decisions. Until I see this guy running good routes, catching balls and breaking up the field during training camp, I see him as just another TE among the crowd. There is still 3 months until the regulated existence of training camp keep him largely with the team and out of mischief.
***
Over the past several years, people can point to outliers where I was right on (Larry Fitzgerald last year), and others where I was dead wrong (Quentin Griffin 2 years ago). I think that's true of anyone who has been doing rankings in a public forum for a long while.
I assure everyone that my projections/rankings are my real and honest opinion as of May 8th, 2006, and I can promise you that they will look very different come mid-August.
Thanks for reading/commenting on the Footballguys.com rankings!
Sincerely,
Mark Wimer
As I have several rankings that are "outliers" compared to the others in this first cut of the rankings, I put together some commentary explaining my logic on the various players/situations as I see them:
****
QB Daunte Culpepper, ranked 30 on my board:
As Culpepper himself said recently: “I'm not going to predict, or rush myself or be unsmart about anything about it because I know it's a very sensitive injury. Only a couple people have ever had it and came back from it. I'm just glad to be making the progress that I'm making and hopefully it continues.” This gruesome knee injury (torn right ACL, MCL, and PCL) was suffered during an October 30th, 2005 game – it could take up to 2 years before the “old” Culpepper is back, and I’d be shocked to see him play more than half the season during 2006.
RB Steven Jackson, ranked 21 on my board:
This is not so much a case of me projecting Jackson to drop in production (I have him at 1100-1200 yards rushing, 8-9 TDs rushing with 250-300 yards receiving and 1-2 TDs), as it is seeing guys who finished below him last year - Jamal Lewis (25th, 2005), Kevin Jones (31st, 2005), Ahman Green (injured most of season), DeShaun Foster (splitting time with Stephen Davis, 24th, 2005), Carnell Williams (19th, 2005) – either coming back (Lewis, Green, Jones) or improving due to more experience/a better situation (Foster, Williams). I don’t think Jackson isn’t a fantasy starter, I just don’t think he’ll be a #1-caliber fantasy RB during 2006.
WR’s
WR Marvin Harrison, ranked 1 on my board:
With James exiting to Arizona and no settled “featured back”-caliber RB entering mini-camps and training camps, I believe that Manning will rely more on his top receiver this season. That would be Marvin Harrison. Getting more looks and more opportunities from Manning should boost Harrison to the top of the WR board. In addition, Terrell Owens and Steve Smith now have very capable counterparts across from them (Terry Glenn, Keyshawn Johnson) which should cause their numbers to dip enough to keep them from the #1 spot. We’re still in wait-and-see mode with Carson Palmer, which makes me a tad nervous for Chad Johnson. At this early juncture, I believe Harrison is the top WR on the fantasy board. 1200-1300 yards receiving, 12-13 TDs.
WR Santana Moss, ranked 32 on my board:
The Redskins added quality competition for touches in their WR stable this past off-season, with Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle-El coming over to Washington. David Patten and Chris Cooley are no slouches, although Patten was disappointing last year before tearing his meniscus cartilage and going on IR. Moss was unexciting for most of the second half of the season, except for week 16 – I believe with the upgraded WR stable, Moss sinks back towards the 1000-1100, 6-7 TDs level this season. 2005 (84/1483/9) was a career season for Moss, IMO.
WR Donald Driver, ranked 7 on my board:
Two 80+ catch seasons, yielding 84/1208/9 and 86/1221/5 (the second in very difficult circumstances, with practically no other credible receiving threats on the field for large chunks of the second half of the season during 2005) later, Javon Walker is in Denver and Driver is the clear #1 in Green Bay. Favre is back, he trusts Driver, and hopefully the rest of the offense can stay on the field this season. What’s not to like here? 1200-1300 receiving yards, 10-11 TDs for Driver this year, IMO.
TE’s
TE Vernon Davis, ranked 23 on my board:
Eric Johnson, while sidelined last year by a foot injury, is still on the roster. Is he the guy who put up 82/825/2 during 2004 again? – he’s said to be healthy and is fully participating in the off-season training regimen in SF. Davis is a rookie – Johnson has NFL experience. I think this is not a clear-cut situation, and the 2 could very well end up seeing some sort of split in touches (especially early in the season, while Davis gets acclimated to the speed of the pro game). I won’t rank Davis as a fantasy starter until I get a clearer picture of the situation in San Francisco between these two players. Add on top of the above the “Alex Smith or is he Ryan Leaf the 2nd?” situation and SF players in general are unexciting to me.
TE Ben Watson (36th on my board) and TE Ben Troupe (31st on my board) –
Similar situations for both of these guys – competing with Watson we have Daniel Graham (14 on my board) and competing with Troupe we have Erron Kinney (13th on my board).
Both Troupe and Kinney caught 55 balls last season (the Titans had a dearth of wide receivers last year). 55/530/4 for Troupe, 55/543/2 for Kinney – With the anticipated departure of McNair to Baltimore, it’s an open question which guy will be more in tune with Volek/Young during 2006, IMO.
Watson had 29/441/4 last year, vs. Graham’s 16/235/3 (struggled with shoulder problems late in the season); during 2004 it was Graham with 30/367/7 while Watson struggled through his rookie season (2/16/0 in1 game). I believe that it’s a toss up as to which guy is the more productive during 2006, given how New England spreads the ball.
TE Kellen Winslow, 30th on my board:
Essentially 2 full years away from the pro game, and 2 serious injuries later, he hasn’t lived up to his promise, and he makes horrible off-field decisions. Until I see this guy running good routes, catching balls and breaking up the field during training camp, I see him as just another TE among the crowd. There is still 3 months until the regulated existence of training camp keep him largely with the team and out of mischief.
***
Over the past several years, people can point to outliers where I was right on (Larry Fitzgerald last year), and others where I was dead wrong (Quentin Griffin 2 years ago). I think that's true of anyone who has been doing rankings in a public forum for a long while.
I assure everyone that my projections/rankings are my real and honest opinion as of May 8th, 2006, and I can promise you that they will look very different come mid-August.
Thanks for reading/commenting on the Footballguys.com rankings!
Sincerely,
Mark Wimer
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Don't forget Keyshawn has left the building.
mark thanks for the "splaning"
Question regarding Harrison versus owens, is there any tracking on sharing the touches or being the focal point produces regualar FF points?
or, will Harrison's numbers actually go down, due the fact he can be targeted by defenses, and Owens could go up, since defenses may play him more honest??
Question regarding Harrison versus owens, is there any tracking on sharing the touches or being the focal point produces regualar FF points?
or, will Harrison's numbers actually go down, due the fact he can be targeted by defenses, and Owens could go up, since defenses may play him more honest??
Jason Wood
Zoo York
I have trouble accepting Bledsoe as a top-10 pick too but, barring injury, I don't see him falling out of the top 10. He was 6th last year, despite getting sacked 49 times. With Flozell back, Fabini and Kosier added (with Larry Allen leaving), I have to think the line will be a tad better. Adding TO to the mix gives Bledsoe a much higher ceiling this year, so even maintaining last year's level of play probably equates to two or three more TD passes thanks to Owens.
I'm struggling with the entire QB class this year. This could be a year I gladly draft Manning early or simply play QBBC. McNabb is coming off a major injury and, while he was on pace for another monster year, most of those games were with TO in the lineup. People seem to forget that Owens was wildly success in the 1st half of 2005. In seven games, Owens had 100+ yards four times, and scored TDs in five games. Bulger loses Mad Mike Martz and has a shoulder problem. Eli Manning was an INT machine last year and completed only 52% of his passes; yet people are all but putting him as a top 5 lock. Palmer and Culpepper might not play, at least initially. Brees is changing teams. Brooks is now a Raider. Favre threw 29 INTs last year.
In terms of risk aversion...I like Peyton, Hasselbeck, Brady, Delhomme, Green, Big Ben and, maybe Leftwich.Maurile, why no love for Kurt with his WRs and new RB?
Page not sorting well when I click Jeff Pasquino.
IIRC Jason, you gave Carr a healthy bump in your rankings. Must like the additions in Hou?
Marc's lovin Tatum Bell eh?
Aaron any thoughts on Chambers over S. Moss? Last year's stats were a fluke or "above his head"?
Mike Herman finally appears on the K page....lol gotta love that guy's obsession with Ks. Always the best source for kicker info
Page not sorting well when I click Jeff Pasquino.
IIRC Jason, you gave Carr a healthy bump in your rankings. Must like the additions in Hou?
Marc's lovin Tatum Bell eh?
Aaron any thoughts on Chambers over S. Moss? Last year's stats were a fluke or "above his head"?
Mike Herman finally appears on the K page....lol gotta love that guy's obsession with Ks. Always the best source for kicker info
Jason Wood
Zoo York
I'm not 100% sold on David Carr yet, but history tells us that one or two QBs come out of nowhere (i.e., outside the top 20) and put up big seasons each year.On paper, I have to like:
[*]The additions of Eric Moulds and Jeb Putzier
[*]The additions of Eric Winston and C. Chester in the draft
[*]The addition of Mike Flanagan at center
[*]Improvements to a defense that, by virtue of the law of averages, can't be as bad as it was a year ago
[*]Most importantly, the additions of Gary Kubiak AND Mike Sherman
Kubiak is the obvious tout, but the bulk of Mike Sherman's coaching resume relates to the offensive line and I think he'll be a major boon for Carr.
Point well taken. I was already with you on Dayne > Bell, but you're right that I have them both too low.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
Warner ranked 22nd last year despite having two 1,400 yards receivers.
Granted, he only same action in ten games. Personally, I can't in good conscience rank or draft Warner with the assumption he'll start a full season.On a per game basis, Warner should play much better than QB17, but our rankings are based on how a player will finish the season in terms of total fantasy points at his position.
I like Warner and have moved him up a bit, but my original thinking was that if Warner misses a game or two with injury (and he always does), Leinart could come in and do well and not give the position back.
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what round would you draft him then?Warner ranked 22nd last year despite having two 1,400 yards receivers.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
bagger.
The One Play Quiz
i thought it was just me.
see: 2004 New York Giants and Eli Manning - he didnt even have to play well. The Giants even had a winning record when Eli took over.
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It is the former, but for practical purposes, in most cases there is little or no difference.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
Not sure, it's May 8th.what round would you draft him then?Warner ranked 22nd last year despite having two 1,400 yards receivers.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
bagger.
The One Play Quiz
Not necessarily. Warner may be a top 10 QB on a PPG basis but nobody in their right mind should project him out to a full season of play. Thus his year end totals will be much lower than other QBs who have poor PPG stats, but better overall stats.You would (should) draft Warner higher than the other QBs who have a lower PPG than him (albeit at a reasonable round) but a higher year end total.
Mark Wimer
Moderator
I believe Harrison's numbers will go up, due to the very strong relationship he's built up with Manning over the years. With all of the other viable targets in Indy's passing game (Wayne, Stokley, Dallas Clark, etc), teams can't give undue attention to Harrison. With more balls in the air due to a weaker passing game, Harrison sees more opportunities than last year (when Indy had a more balanced approach), and turns those increased opportunities into more #s. During 99-2002 Harrison routinely caught more than 100 passes a season - I look to see him there again this year due to the situation in Indy's backfield. Bill Parcells is already on record that "he's (Owens) not going to catch 100 balls". Parcells on Owens, May 5
Mark Wimer
Moderator
My projections are for year end totals.
Sidewinder16
Footballguy
Why do you ding Owens and Smith for having other viable options, but count it as a positive for Harrison?
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