For all of those that create Mock Drafts... (1 Viewer)

[nerangers]

Was sitting here looking back at some NFL Rookie mock drafts, including my own, and wondered how can we end up so wrong! lol Here are some thought, mostly common sense, in no general order. Love to hear others as well. What does not kill us, will make us better Mockers!

1. Owners usually win out over Coaches when shelling out first round money (Raiders – Davis loved Russell, Kiffin loved Quinn ) (example – Young last year)

2. Top draft picks still end up going in the top of the draft (Calvin Johnson was not going to slide down to TB at #4)

3. Historically top draft picks are not drafted and then traded away (ok so I didn’t look this up, but prior to Manning/Rivers, I don’t remember this ever happening)

4. If teams are trying to move up prior to the draft, they most likely will still try during the draft. (Broncos)

5. It is not easy to trade up and down in the Draft as the average fan thinks it is. This is why it looks like NFL teams reach for players early, vs. trying to find a trading partner.

6. Teams do not want to pay too much to move up (Detroit’s price tag too high for the #2 pick overall). Those top five draft picks are going to cost you!

7. If a team can not trade, they will most likely go for the top player on their draft board, which most likely will not match the average fans draft board for that team (Arizona’s Draft board with OT Levi Brown)

8. The closer you get to the draft, the more accurate you can predict a teams true need (seems teams will most likely go need first, BPA second, but there are also exceptions to the rule i.e. Greenbay!)

9. Need trumps talent (OT Levi Brown – not saying he is not talented, but doubtful many had him in the top 5)

10. The truth be known, the information floating around prior to the draft is probably more smoke than fire. Every team tells some lies at draft time (GB when asked about Justin Harrell - the Pack said he wasn't their guy).

11. Coaches have pride too…might not likely draft a player that might admit you made a mistake in an earlier draft. (Someone told me there was no way the Vikings would take Quinn since Childress drafted Tarvaris Jackson)

12. Running Back by Committee is not a bad thing in the NFL…I think you see teams going this route to save the pounding that a running back takes. Can’t rule out a team taking a top running back just because they have one already (Peterson going to Vikings, Pittman going to the Saints)

13. Later round teams are more likely to trade down than pick second round talent in the first round (i.e. Eagles/Patriots).

14. Teams with multiple first round draft picks will try to move one of the picks (I didn’t check if this is historically true, but it seems to be for the Patriots).

15. Trading for future year draft picks is always a consideration when planning out draft pick trades (Patriots, Dallas)

16. Quarterbacks don’t always go as early as many think since a team must need one to give them first round money if chosen early (Quinn this year, Rogers, and Leinart previous years)

17. Some talented players will drop out of the first round based on Teams needs (DT ALAN BRANCH, OLB PAUL POSLUSZNY)

18. Some players will break the top 10 that you would not count on (Dolphins selecting Ted Ginn, Donte Whitner to Buffalo last year)

19. Look to the off-season and see who was traded away, and if it is a need that needs to be filled (Dolphins Welker/Ginn, Steelers Porter/Timmons, Bills McGahee/Lynch)

20. Character does play into the NFL draft, causing players to slide (CB Eric Wright)

21. Injuries can cause players to slide (Hartwell Bicep Injury, Peterson Collarbone)

22. Players don’t drop just because another team fits the need better (Buffalo/GB - MARSHAWN LYNCH)

23. Need by Need analysis…look for a team that wants to move back based on what they need, and a team that wants to move up based on need to get in front of the team most likely to pick that player (Jets/Panthers/Steelers) – Classic draft move but so tough to do in a mock! lol

24. Good showing at the combines do help players move up…

25. Visiting a team multiple times could show how serious they are about you (S Meriweather and the Pats met three times)

26. Why Reach if you can move back and still get your guy? (Jon Beason and the Panthers)

27. The totally bizarre can happen – Eagles and Cowboys trading with each other!!!

28. Teams would like their first round picks to be starters!

29. General Managers have a say…listen to who they like (Baltimore Ravens and G BEN GRUBBS)

30. Watch what needs are addressed prior to the draft (Many had the Saints going CB, but they addressed it by signing Jason David)

31. Teams are going to draft players that are good fits and not just top picks (WR Craig Davis to the Chargers with better WRs on the board)

 

[Andy Dufresne]

32. When DT's start to slide, they typically REALLY slide.

 

[nerangers]

The one place I think I did go right in my mock was having the Patriots trading out of the #28th pick...actually got the team right with SF moving up for the pick...didn't have SF picking Staley though! LOL

I had them going WR, then again, with the Darrell Jackson trade rumor going on, I probably shouldn't have had them going WR with Meachem.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I disagree with 9 and 17. Brown is one of the few examples of need outweighing talent in the first round. Did the Vikings really need AD? Did the Dolphins need Ginn? I think more and more teams are going BPA.

The reason that guys like Branch and Pos dropped was because there were whispers about them leading up to the draft that they were not as talented as once thought. It wasn't that needs dropped them there. Teams thought Willis, Timmons and Beason were more talented than Pos. Other than Timmons, I agree and Timmons is the type that teams can fall for, so it wasn't really that surprising.

 

[nerangers]

I disagree with 9 and 17. Brown is one of the few examples of need outweighing talent in the first round. Did the Vikings really need AD? Did the Dolphins need Ginn? I think more and more teams are going BPA. The reason that guys like Branch and Pos dropped was because there were whispers about them leading up to the draft that they were not as talented as once thought. It wasn't that needs dropped them there. Teams thought Willis, Timmons and Beason were more talented than Pos. Other than Timmons, I agree and Timmons is the type that teams can fall for, so it wasn't really that surprising.

Do you think Ginn was the BPA for the Dolphins vs a need created by the loss of Welker? I think many of us would have different BPA at that pick, and many felt the Dolphins need was QB.17 is not worded right...what I meant is that you can be talented, but drop if a team does not need that position.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I disagree with 9 and 17. Brown is one of the few examples of need outweighing talent in the first round. Did the Vikings really need AD? Did the Dolphins need Ginn? I think more and more teams are going BPA. The reason that guys like Branch and Pos dropped was because there were whispers about them leading up to the draft that they were not as talented as once thought. It wasn't that needs dropped them there. Teams thought Willis, Timmons and Beason were more talented than Pos. Other than Timmons, I agree and Timmons is the type that teams can fall for, so it wasn't really that surprising.

Do you think Ginn was the BPA for the Dolphins vs a need created by the loss of Welker? I think many of us would have different BPA at that pick, and many felt the Dolphins need was QB.

I think they took Ginn because they perceived him as the 9th best, or better, player on their board, regardless of what I think of him. I think they could have filled a couple of positions before taking him, so I'm not sure Welker had that much to do with it. But maybe I'm wrong.

 

[chris1969]

I disagree with 9 and 17. Brown is one of the few examples of need outweighing talent in the first round. Did the Vikings really need AD? Did the Dolphins need Ginn? I think more and more teams are going BPA. The reason that guys like Branch and Pos dropped was because there were whispers about them leading up to the draft that they were not as talented as once thought. It wasn't that needs dropped them there. Teams thought Willis, Timmons and Beason were more talented than Pos. Other than Timmons, I agree and Timmons is the type that teams can fall for, so it wasn't really that surprising.

Do you think Ginn was the BPA for the Dolphins vs a need created by the loss of Welker? I think many of us would have different BPA at that pick, and many felt the Dolphins need was QB.

I think they took Ginn because they perceived him as the 9th best, or better, player on their board, regardless of what I think of him. I think they could have filled a couple of positions before taking him, so I'm not sure Welker had that much to do with it. But maybe I'm wrong.

I would still find it hard to believe that Miami rated Ginn higher than Quinn. I actually don't think they needed Ginn more than Quinn though. Which brings us to rule #32. At the moment in time that you realize in the draft that everybody else is not smoking the same thing you are, stop, have a snack and let the next guy draft ahead of you like Minnesota does.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I disagree with 9 and 17. Brown is one of the few examples of need outweighing talent in the first round. Did the Vikings really need AD? Did the Dolphins need Ginn? I think more and more teams are going BPA. The reason that guys like Branch and Pos dropped was because there were whispers about them leading up to the draft that they were not as talented as once thought. It wasn't that needs dropped them there. Teams thought Willis, Timmons and Beason were more talented than Pos. Other than Timmons, I agree and Timmons is the type that teams can fall for, so it wasn't really that surprising.

Do you think Ginn was the BPA for the Dolphins vs a need created by the loss of Welker? I think many of us would have different BPA at that pick, and many felt the Dolphins need was QB.

I think they took Ginn because they perceived him as the 9th best, or better, player on their board, regardless of what I think of him. I think they could have filled a couple of positions before taking him, so I'm not sure Welker had that much to do with it. But maybe I'm wrong.

Need v. BPA is one of the mindbenders. I am convinced every team does both without rhyme or reason. Need is easier to assess because we cannot possibly all agree on player grades. The franchises rarely do. So the mock conversation is needs driven. Reality is much stranger than our fictions. I disagree with #1, btw. There was a bunch of hype about Kiffin preferring Quinn. It was all based on media speculation and Kiffin's offense supposedly being better suited to Quinn. They drove the bogus information with a quote from Kiffin praising Quinn. Oakland loved that bit because they thought it could serve a purpose. But if you read the whole interview the Quinn quote was clipped from, he is praising Quinn as an afterthought to just flat gushing about Jamarcus who he clearly, OBVIOUSLY, preferred. During the Kiffin interview process Lane made if very clear he wanted to coach Russell. Pete Carroll slipped that one to the media very early in the process, but it went mostly ignored. Do not believe Kiffin didn't get his man. Davis may have preferred the crazy measureables of Calvin, but no way Kiffin preferred Quinn.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

During the Kiffin interview process Lane made if very clear he wanted to coach Russell. Pete Carroll slipped that one to the media very early in the process, but it went mostly ignored. Do not believe Kiffin didn't get his man. Davis may have preferred the crazy measureables of Calvin, but no way Kiffin preferred Quinn.

I remember reading some snippet that said Kiffin was hired with the express purpose of coaching Russell. I don't remember where that came from.

 

[_4_]

I thought the Packers would draft to fill actual needs.

 

[massraider]

I don't consider myself even a below average mock drafter, but when putting one together this year, as I was doing it, I was thinking that a lot of stuff needs to go into it. And the one I think really that gets overlooked is the overall principles, strategy, whatever, of the front office. Value and need might coincide for a pick, but if it doesn't suit the team, coaching staff, and drafting history of the front office, it probably won't get made.

The information I'd really like is the info of which teams attend Pro Days and who seems to be the most interested, etc.

I think sorting out the pre-draft rumors is just about impossible. I'd love to see a tally of all the rumors posted on PFT, SI.com, New Era, etc. David Harris to New England ring a bell?

 

[chris1969]

I thought the Packers would draft to fill actual needs.

They did!They needed to draft some guys and they did that.

 

[massraider]

During the Kiffin interview process Lane made if very clear he wanted to coach Russell. Pete Carroll slipped that one to the media very early in the process, but it went mostly ignored. Do not believe Kiffin didn't get his man. Davis may have preferred the crazy measureables of Calvin, but no way Kiffin preferred Quinn.

I remember reading some snippet that said Kiffin was hired with the express purpose of coaching Russell. I don't remember where that came from.

Kiffin could get a tattoo of JaMarcus Russell's face on his butt, and people would still say he preferred Quinn.

 

[chris1969]

During the Kiffin interview process Lane made if very clear he wanted to coach Russell. Pete Carroll slipped that one to the media very early in the process, but it went mostly ignored. Do not believe Kiffin didn't get his man. Davis may have preferred the crazy measureables of Calvin, but no way Kiffin preferred Quinn.

I remember reading some snippet that said Kiffin was hired with the express purpose of coaching Russell. I don't remember where that came from.

Kiffin could get a tattoo of JaMarcus Russell's face on his butt, and people would still say he preferred Quinn.

He'd have to have an awfully big cheek.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Kiffin could get a tattoo of JaMarcus Russell's face on his butt, and people would still say he preferred Quinn.

Exactly. However, if he got a tattoo of JaMarcus Russell's butt on his face, he might finally convince people.

 

[Sammy3469]

the big one left out in this is that what the outside world may percieve as needs may not be what the team percieves as a need. Case in point is the Panthers...everyone was saying TE and S, but truth be told, those are the two least valuable positions for the Panthers...they value the DL and LB much more on defense and WRs and blocking TEs on offense.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

the big one left out in this is that what the outside world may percieve as needs may not be what the team percieves as a need. Case in point is the Panthers...everyone was saying TE and S, but truth be told, those are the two least valuable positions for the Panthers...they value the DL and LB much more on defense and WRs and blocking TEs on offense.

That assumes that the offense this year is the same as the offense last year. Are you sure that's true? Is the new OC just a placeholder - an offensive coordinator in name only? Or will they allow him to install his offense?I don't know. I'm asking.

 

[nerangers]

I disagree with #1, btw. There was a bunch of hype about Kiffin preferring Quinn. It was all based on media speculation and Kiffin's offense supposedly being better suited to Quinn. They drove the bogus information with a quote from Kiffin praising Quinn. Oakland loved that bit because they thought it could serve a purpose. But if you read the whole interview the Quinn quote was clipped from, he is praising Quinn as an afterthought to just flat gushing about Jamarcus who he clearly, OBVIOUSLY, preferred.

CC...remember I am basing this on creating a more accurate mock draft, and this was only my second year doing it. I admit that all of my information strictly comes from reading and looking at other Mock drafts. The big thing you heard out of Oakland was Jamarcus Russell was Davis' boy! It was the same with Young vs. Leinart last year, and I applied this rule and had Young going to the Titans. I am just saying that when weeding through fact and fiction, the fact is the one paying the money will be the final say...at least for the high money picks.

 

[nerangers]

the big one left out in this is that what the outside world may percieve as needs may not be what the team percieves as a need. Case in point is the Panthers...everyone was saying TE and S, but truth be told, those are the two least valuable positions for the Panthers...they value the DL and LB much more on defense and WRs and blocking TEs on offense.

I think you are right about what people preceive vs what a team preceives. There were sites out there though that had the Panthers needing LBs and mocks drafting LBs. This is what one site said why it was a need: Their leading tackler from last year (Chris Draft) is now playing elsewhere and then you also have to take into account that Dan Morgan might be just one concussion away from retirement so the Panthers linebacking corps. may have more questions than answers.

 

[nerangers]

I disagree with 9 and 17. Brown is one of the few examples of need outweighing talent in the first round. Did the Vikings really need AD? Did the Dolphins need Ginn? I think more and more teams are going BPA.

The reason that guys like Branch and Pos dropped was because there were whispers about them leading up to the draft that they were not as talented as once thought. It wasn't that needs dropped them there. Teams thought Willis, Timmons and Beason were more talented than Pos. Other than Timmons, I agree and Timmons is the type that teams can fall for, so it wasn't really that surprising.

Do you think Ginn was the BPA for the Dolphins vs a need created by the loss of Welker? I think many of us would have different BPA at that pick, and many felt the Dolphins need was QB.

I think they took Ginn because they perceived him as the 9th best, or better, player on their board, regardless of what I think of him. I think they could have filled a couple of positions before taking him, so I'm not sure Welker had that much to do with it. But maybe I'm wrong.

Point well taken...that is what I was hinting at with #77. If a team can not trade, they will most likely go for the top player on their draft board, which most likely will not match the average fans draft board for that team (Arizona’s Draft board with OT Levi Brown)

Ginn definitely could have been the best player on there board at that pick. It definitely seems like they did not want Quinn.

I am sure the Miami fans did not like reading about there #7 pick (from FBG email) The Miami Dolphins first-round selection in the 2007 NFL draft, WR Ted Ginn, says he may not be ready for training camp. Ginn is still not 100% after the mid foot sprain he suffered in the BCS title game earlier this year. He said his foot will be in a boot for about a month. Rehabilitation will follow, and Ginn said there's no guarantee he'll be ready to practice when camp begins in three months.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Either way, brutal pick by Miami there.

 

[massraider]

I disagree with #1, btw. There was a bunch of hype about Kiffin preferring Quinn. It was all based on media speculation and Kiffin's offense supposedly being better suited to Quinn. They drove the bogus information with a quote from Kiffin praising Quinn. Oakland loved that bit because they thought it could serve a purpose. But if you read the whole interview the Quinn quote was clipped from, he is praising Quinn as an afterthought to just flat gushing about Jamarcus who he clearly, OBVIOUSLY, preferred.

CC...remember I am basing this on creating a more accurate mock draft, and this was only my second year doing it. I admit that all of my information strictly comes from reading and looking at other Mock drafts. The big thing you heard out of Oakland was Jamarcus Russell was Davis' boy! It was the same with Young vs. Leinart last year, and I applied this rule and had Young going to the Titans. I am just saying that when weeding through fact and fiction, the fact is the one paying the money will be the final say...at least for the high money picks.

That's true. But would that have applied to the Browns, wehere the story was that the owner wanted Quinn, and the coaches wanted Peterson/Thomas? Or Atlanta, where Arthur Blank "ordered" his team to acquire Calvin Johnson? Millen said after the draft, they didn't receive a single draft day offer for the #2 pick.You are making the decision to go with owner over front office, assuming this rumor was fact. If you beleived all the rumors, you missed Thomas at #3, and maybe had Atlanta trading up for CJ.

 

[nerangers]

That's true. But would that have applied to the Browns, wehere the story was that the owner wanted Quinn, and the coaches wanted Peterson/Thomas? Or Atlanta, where Arthur Blank "ordered" his team to acquire Calvin Johnson? Millen said after the draft, they didn't receive a single draft day offer for the #2 pick.

You are making the decision to go with owner over front office, assuming this rumor was fact. If you beleived all the rumors, you missed Thomas at #3, and maybe had Atlanta trading up for CJ.

I must have missed the story about the owner wanting Quinn, then yet again, they got him didn't they? I actually had them grabbing Peterson over Thomas, but kept thinking to change it due to Peterson's collarbone. I had Quinn going to the Vikings, eventhough people told me it would not happen since Childress grabbed his QB last year.As for Atlanta, had CJ got passed the Lions, you might have seen a trade happen. Everyone knows that Millen screwed himself out of trading this pick by making it too pricy. Arthur Blank can "order" all he wants, but there is a big price to pay for those picks, and no one was willing to pay for it. I bet most teams figured the Lions would let CJ slide, or hope to mabye trade him later.

 

[AB in DC]

7. If a team can not trade, they will most likely go for the top player on their draft board, which most likely will not match the average fans draft board for that team (Arizona’s Draft board with OT Levi Brown)

Really, this is all that matters. The other 30 reasons are just filler.