General Malaise said:
Clinton is +140 to win the presidency. Next up is Jeb Bush at +650. These are the Vegas Lines, which is akin to truth serum. You can keep telling yourself that people don't want to vote for her all you want, but right now, she is the heavy chalk to win this thing. Sorry.
There's a bunch of vigorish built into those odds. Adjusting for that, I think Clinton is around 50%.
Wouldnt adjusting for the vig compute to less of a real chance than the what odds are?
No, if you add up all the implied percentages based on the odds being offered, the sum will be greater than 100%.
Basically, is someone has a true 50% chance of winning, the payout if she wins will be
as if she had around a 60% chance, which is how the book makes its money.
In this case, +140 odds implies about a 58% chance of winning, which includes a vigorish. The true chance would be less than that.