For those that look for guys that finished strong (1 Viewer)

[Anarchy99]

Here is a breakdown of how guys did over the last half of last season. I used stats from Weeks 9-17. Since some players had byes, I used fantasy ppg as a metric (with a minimum of 4 games played). The exactitude of league scoring is not the issue here (I pulled the data from one of my 0 ppr leagues). The point is to see who did well down the stretch . . . and if people think that will carry over into this year.

QB

# Player Avg1 Manning, Peyton DEN 33.622 Foles, Nick PHI 32.503 Brees, Drew NOS 28.224 Brady, Tom NEP 26.004 McCown, Josh CHI 26.006 Roethlisberger, Ben 24.897 Dalton, Andy CIN 24.128 Smith, Alex KCC 22.579 Luck, Andrew IND 22.4410 Palmer, Carson ARI 22.2511 Rivers, Philip SDC 22.2212 Wilson, Russell SEA 21.7513 Newton, Cam CAR 21.5614 Fitzpatrick, Ryan TEN 21.3815 Kaepernick, Colin SFO 21.1216 Cutler, Jay CHI 20.7517 Romo, Tony DAL 20.7118 Tannehill, Ryan MIA 20.5619 Griffin III, Robert WAS 20.1720 Stafford, Matthew DET 18.8821 Campbell, Jason CLE 17.7122 Ryan, Matt ATL 17.6723 Manuel, E.J. BUF 17.4024 Flacco, Joe BAL QB 16.6725 Flynn, Matt GBP QB 16.60RB

# Player Avg1 Charles, Jamaal KCC 22.712 McCoy, LeSean PHI 19.883 Forte, Matt CHI 15.894 Murray, DeMarco DAL 15.755 Lacy, Eddie GBP 15.116 Lynch, Marshawn SEA 14.887 Johnson, Chris TEN 14.568 Jennings, Rashad OAK 13.889 Stacy, Zac STL 13.5010 Bell, Le'Veon PIT 13.2211 Mathews, Ryan SDC 13.2212 Peterson, Adrian MIN 13.1413 Moreno, Knowshon DEN 13.1214 Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC 11.5715 Bernard, Giovani CIN 11.0016 Bush, Reggie DET 10.8617 Bell, Joique DET 10.5018 Blount, LeGarrette NEP 10.5019 Jackson, Fred BUF 10.2520 Jackson, Steven ATL 10.1121 Vereen, Shane NEP 10.0022 Tate, Ben HOU 9.7123 Rainey, Bobby TBB 9.6724 Brown, Donald IND 9.5625 Morris, Alfred WAS 9.4426 Ivory, Chris NYJ 9.2527 Spiller, C.J. BUF 9.1228 Mendenhall, Rashard ARI 9.0029 Brown, Andre NYG 8.6230 Williams, DeAngelo CAR 8.6231 Woodhead, Danny SDC 8.3332 Thomas, Pierre NOS 8.2233 Ball, Montee DEN 7.8834 Gore, Frank SFO 7.7535 Ellington, Andre ARI 7.5736 Green-Ellis, BenJarvus 7.5037 Rice, Ray BAL RB 7.3338 Ridley, Stevan NEP 6.7139 Asiata, Matt MIN 6.6040 Davis, Knile KCC 6.12WR

1 Gordon, Josh CLE 18.122 Thomas, Demaryius DEN 14.883 Brown, Antonio PIT 13.564 Johnson, Calvin DET 13.435 Decker, Eric DEN 13.386 Marshall, Brandon CHI 12.787 Green, A.J. CIN 12.758 Jeffery, Alshon CHI 12.339 Johnson, Andre HOU 11.8910 Austin, Tavon STL 11.4011 Boldin, Anquan SFO 11.3812 Cooper, Riley PHI 11.1213 Jackson, DeSean PHI 10.8814 Bryant, Dez DAL 10.7515 Garcon, Pierre WAS 10.5616 Edelman, Julian NEP 10.5017 Colston, Marques NOS 10.1218 Allen, Keenan SDC 10.1119 Patterson, Cordarrelle 9.7820 Floyd, Michael ARI 9.5021 Fitzgerald, Larry ARI 9.3822 Hilton, T.Y. IND 9.0022 White, Roddy ATL 9.0024 Jackson, Vincent TBB 8.2225 Wallace, Mike MIA 8.1126 Cotchery, Jerricho PIT 7.8927 Streater, Rod OAK 7.7828 Baldwin, Doug SEA 7.6229 Nelson, Jordy GBP 7.5630 Wright, Kendall TEN 7.4431 Bowe, Dwayne KCC 7.4332 Hartline, Brian MIA 7.2232 Smith, Torrey BAL 7.2234 Jernigan, Jerrel NYG 6.8635 Amendola, Danny NEP 6.7535 Jennings, Greg MIN 6.7535 Tate, Golden SEA 6.7538 Brown, Marlon BAL 6.6239 Underwood, Tiquan TBB 6.5640 Crabtree, Michael SFO 6.4040 Shorts, Cecil JAC 6.4042 Douglas, Harry ATL 6.3343 Sanders, Emmanuel PIT 6.2244 Jones, Marvin CIN 6.1245 Boykin, Jarrett GBP 6.0045 Dobson, Aaron NEP 6.0045 Rogers, Da'Rick IND 6.0048 Holmes, Andre OAK 5.7549 Royal, Eddie SDC 5.6250 Washington, Nate TEN 5.56TE

1	Gronkowski, Rob NEP 	13.402	Graham, Jimmy NOS 	11.443	Thomas, Julius DEN 	9.003	Witten, Jason DAL 	9.005	Gonzalez, Tony ATL 	8.336	Davis, Vernon SFO 	8.127	Olsen, Greg CAR 	7.338	Graham, Garrett HOU 	6.839	Lewis, Marcedes JAC 	6.6210	Clay, Charles MIA 	6.4411	Wright, Tim TBB 	6.3312	Ertz, Zach PHI 	        6.0012	Reed, Jordan WAS 	6.0012	Walker, Delanie TEN 	6.0015	Celek, Brent PHI 	5.7516	Fasano, Anthony KCC 	5.6017	Carlson, John MIN 	5.5018	Cook, Jared STL 	5.3819	Pitta, Dennis BAL 	5.2520	Housler, Robert ARI 	5.1421	Gates, Antonio SDC 	5.1122	Cameron, Jordan CLE 	5.0022	Myers, Brandon NYG 	5.0024	Fleener, Coby IND 	4.8925	Gresham, Jermaine CIN 	4.83

 

[bostonfred]

Finishing strong shouldnt be considered a virtue in and of itself. I think you can split strong finishers into categories:

1) guys who earned playing time and excelled with it

2) guys who got playing time through injury/suspension of a starter and looked good with it

3) guys who were dinged up/missed time during the first half of the season but excelled when healthy

4) guys who did well against easy defenses and poorly against good defenses

5) guys who got volume in a volume role but didn't really excel

You can probably split each of those categories further into veterans staying in the same situation, veterans moving to a different situation, and young guys when you're talking about who will excel. For example, legarrette blount excelled down the stretch, but he's in a totally different situation this year. Same with rashad jennings. Both got carries because of issues with the starter, not strictly on their own merit. Its worth noting that jennings kept the job over a healthy mcfadden, though, and that the giants picked him up as their presumptive starter. So he falls more in category 2, while blount is more in category 5, a volume role.

Mccown did well down the stretch, but that was another volume role. He threw a lot of passes to very good targets. I like mccown this year but I don't expect a repeat of his performance because I expect a little less volume and tampa has worse targets.

demarco murray is a good example of a guy in category 1 - a relatively young guy who appeared to move up another level in the second half, without any real external reason for it. He earned more opportunities through better production. It might help that dunbar got hurt, but that's about the only negative.

 

[Khy]

Man, what a complete freak Gordon was last season.

Interesting things to me:

Brady was his old self after his rreceivers learned the game a bit.

DeMarco Murray and Rashad Jennings performed as good as anyone but Charles down the stretch.

Tavon Austin had a legit WR1 finish.

Gronk is still Gronk.

Garrett Graham performed surprisingly well with how awful that team was.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Garrett Graham performed surprisingly well with how awful that team was.

Garrett Graham performed surprisingly well because of how awful that team was. The team eventually just ran out of people to throw to. Graham had 47 targets in his last four games, including a 13-target, 7-catch, 136-yard game and a 14-target, 8-catch, 73-yard game.

 

[FF Ninja]

I like this. Always good to look at things from different angles.

QB:

Brady's demise was overrated

Rivers fell off (due to less pass attempts) once McCoy realized he had a running back

Palmer with a better line and more experience could be top 10 this year despite division

Fitzpatrick isn't that bad

Alex Smith is undervalued (offensive line losses shouldn't greatly impact a guy who only throws the ball 7 yards, right?)

RB:

Is Rashad Jennings the truth? I'm still on the fence

Mathews is underrated

WR:

I doubt AJ Green is top 5 this year, might fall out of top 10

Cooper is great value (I don't expect top 18, tho)

Jennings is ridiculous value

Garcon is overvalued

TE:

This data gave me nothing for this group

 

[Adam Harstad]

I seem to recall an article from years ago (perhaps on the PFR blog?) that found that the correlation between performance in the second half of year N and performance in year N+1 was lower than the correlation between performance over the entirety of year N and performance in year N+1, though I've been unable to find it in a quick google search. Does anyone else remember the article I'm referring to or know where I could find it again?

On the whole, I would worry that half-season splits would be much more susceptible to influence by a single outlier game (see: Austin, Tavon).

 

[TheGrimReaper]

Thanks to the OP for this "different angle."

On a side note....are you planning on running the Anarchy Leagues this yr?

Thnx.

 

[MAC_32]

Just as a reality check for those that get excited about strong 2nd half performer's - Kevin and Julius Jones.

 

[Ted Mullins]

On the whole, I would worry that half-season splits would be much more susceptible to influence by a single outlier game (see: Austin, Tavon).

Jamaal Charles week 15 too, not that he wasn't really good regardless.

 

[jurb26]

The NFL is far too volatile year in and year out for me to worry about these late "runs" all that much. Unless it's a guy who really only had an opportunity late in the year or played his way on the field I can't get too excited about it. Runs happen at all sorts of time frames and for random reasons.

 

[MAC_32]

The NFL is far too volatile year in and year out for me to worry about these late "runs" all that much. Unless it's a guy who really only had an opportunity late in the year or played his way on the field I can't get too excited about it. Runs happen at all sorts of time frames and for random reasons.

Also, see - Doug Martin's October his rookie year.

 

[PhantomJB]

After Manning, Brees, Foles and Brady there are 14 QB's roughly 2pts of each other (20-24pts). That doesn't count Rodgers (inj), Stafford (19), and M.Ryan(18).

This underscores a) how deep QB is this year and b) why it is futile to try and debate QB rankings after the top 3 (Peyton, Rodgers, Brees).

 

[cstu]

Man, what a complete freak Gordon was last season.

Gordon averaged 8 more PPG than any other RB the last 5 games of the season.

Charles averaged 10 more PPG than any other RB the last 5 games of the season.

If you had those guys it was like starting an extra stud every week.

 

[Shutout]

I think the range is too broad and should be more like week 11-16, leaving off 17 because none of us in fantasy world care for the most part and even in real life, if there is a meaningless outlier game to be had, it is usually 17.

Re run those numbers and you'll see guys like Charles and Garcon greatly strengthen their positions. Guys like them had exceptionally strong playoff pushes.

 

[Shutout]

I like this. Always good to look at things from different angles.

QB:

Brady's demise was overrated

Rivers fell off (due to less pass attempts) once McCoy realized he had a running back

Palmer with a better line and more experience could be top 10 this year despite division

Fitzpatrick isn't that bad

Alex Smith is undervalued (offensive line losses shouldn't greatly impact a guy who only throws the ball 7 yards, right?)

RB:

Is Rashad Jennings the truth? I'm still on the fence

Mathews is underrated

WR:

I doubt AJ Green is top 5 this year, might fall out of top 10

Cooper is great value (I don't expect top 18, tho)

Jennings is ridiculous value

Garcon is overvalued

TE:

This data gave me nothing for this group

Bold statement on AJ green but I agree.

Garcon isn't overvalued at all, IMO. Down the stretch last year in ppr:

23

12

11

12

7

24 in week 15

29 in title week.

He was as steady as they come last year and blew up when it matters most. I admit, I'm probably biased because he was a big part of bringing me some titles but I can't called him overvalued because he did exactly what he was hoped to do last year.

 

[nirad3]

I like this. Always good to look at things from different angles.

QB:

Brady's demise was overrated

Rivers fell off (due to less pass attempts) once McCoy realized he had a running back

Palmer with a better line and more experience could be top 10 this year despite division

Fitzpatrick isn't that bad

Alex Smith is undervalued (offensive line losses shouldn't greatly impact a guy who only throws the ball 7 yards, right?)

RB:

Is Rashad Jennings the truth? I'm still on the fence

Mathews is underrated

WR:

I doubt AJ Green is top 5 this year, might fall out of top 10

Cooper is great value (I don't expect top 18, tho)

Jennings is ridiculous value

Garcon is overvalued

TE:

This data gave me nothing for this group

Bold statement on AJ green but I agree.

Garcon isn't overvalued at all, IMO. Down the stretch last year in ppr:

23

12

11

12

7

24 in week 15

29 in title week.

He was as steady as they come last year and blew up when it matters most. I admit, I'm probably biased because he was a big part of bringing me some titles but I can't called him overvalued because he did exactly what he was hoped to do last year.

Not sure why folks are down on Garcon. I think the arrival of Jackson and improved health of Reed will only help him. Safeties will have to shade to the speedy Jackson and account for Reed in the middle. Garcon is going to be a PPR monster. I'm targeting him in my redrafts this year for sure.

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

I seem to recall an article from years ago (perhaps on the PFR blog?) that found that the correlation between performance in the second half of year N and performance in year N+1 was lower than the correlation between performance over the entirety of year N and performance in year N+1, though I've been unable to find it in a quick google search. Does anyone else remember the article I'm referring to or know where I could find it again?

On the whole, I would worry that half-season splits would be much more susceptible to influence by a single outlier game (see: Austin, Tavon).

OP had a great analysis of the data, and definitely worth discussing in terms of the talent and situation that these players had last year and what's changed coming into this year, but definitely worthwhile to know if there is any correlation between latter half split performance from one year to the next full year's performance.

I actually think out of the mid-tier QBs (Palmer, Dalton, and Smith) Andy Dalton has the situation to continue a strong showing and is undervalued going into this year.

Surprised that with Marshall and Jeffery's dominance in the last half that Cutler didn't index higher.

Is DeMarco Murray undervalued, even with the competition he has in Dallas?

 

[Adam Harstad]

The NFL is far too volatile year in and year out for me to worry about these late "runs" all that much. Unless it's a guy who really only had an opportunity late in the year or played his way on the field I can't get too excited about it. Runs happen at all sorts of time frames and for random reasons.

I was tweeting about this a few nights ago. Denarius Moore was WR5 from weeks 3-6, then had his bye and still ranked as WR11 from weeks 3-7. Tiquan Underwood (!!!) was WR14 from weeks 9-12.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I like this. Always good to look at things from different angles.

QB:

Brady's demise was overrated

Rivers fell off (due to less pass attempts) once McCoy realized he had a running back

Palmer with a better line and more experience could be top 10 this year despite division

Fitzpatrick isn't that bad

Alex Smith is undervalued (offensive line losses shouldn't greatly impact a guy who only throws the ball 7 yards, right?)

RB:

Is Rashad Jennings the truth? I'm still on the fence

Mathews is underrated

WR:

I doubt AJ Green is top 5 this year, might fall out of top 10

Cooper is great value (I don't expect top 18, tho)

Jennings is ridiculous value

Garcon is overvalued

TE:

This data gave me nothing for this group

Bold statement on AJ green but I agree.

Garcon isn't overvalued at all, IMO. Down the stretch last year in ppr:

23

12

11

12

7

24 in week 15

29 in title week.

He was as steady as they come last year and blew up when it matters most. I admit, I'm probably biased because he was a big part of bringing me some titles but I can't called him overvalued because he did exactly what he was hoped to do last year.

Not sure why folks are down on Garcon. I think the arrival of Jackson and improved health of Reed will only help him. Safeties will have to shade to the speedy Jackson and account for Reed in the middle. Garcon is going to be a PPR monster. I'm targeting him in my redrafts this year for sure.

2013 Pierre Garcon had the 7th most targets of any player in the last dozen years. The only players to put up more over that span were Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Calvin Johnson, Randy Moss, Brandon Marshall, and Torry Holt. That's pretty much why folks are down on Garcon, in a nutshell.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I don't see any reason to exclude playoffs -- the more data points the better

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

I like this. Always good to look at things from different angles.

QB:

Brady's demise was overrated

Rivers fell off (due to less pass attempts) once McCoy realized he had a running back

Palmer with a better line and more experience could be top 10 this year despite division

Fitzpatrick isn't that bad

Alex Smith is undervalued (offensive line losses shouldn't greatly impact a guy who only throws the ball 7 yards, right?)

RB:

Is Rashad Jennings the truth? I'm still on the fence

Mathews is underrated

WR:

I doubt AJ Green is top 5 this year, might fall out of top 10

Cooper is great value (I don't expect top 18, tho)

Jennings is ridiculous value

Garcon is overvalued

TE:

This data gave me nothing for this group

Bold statement on AJ green but I agree.Garcon isn't overvalued at all, IMO. Down the stretch last year in ppr:

23

12

11

12

7

24 in week 15

29 in title week.

He was as steady as they come last year and blew up when it matters most. I admit, I'm probably biased because he was a big part of bringing me some titles but I can't called him overvalued because he did exactly what he was hoped to do last year.

Not sure why folks are down on Garcon. I think the arrival of Jackson and improved health of Reed will only help him. Safeties will have to shade to the speedy Jackson and account for Reed in the middle. Garcon is going to be a PPR monster. I'm targeting him in my redrafts this year for sure.

I totally agree. I was high on Garcon last season and my enthusiasm hasnt wavered this year.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I totally agree. I was high on Garcon last season and my enthusiasm hasnt wavered this year.

so, you don't see gruden and mcvay replacing the shanahans making any difference?

 

[Sabertooth]

Adrian Peterson did not finish strong.

 

[FF Ninja]

I like this. Always good to look at things from different angles.

QB:

Brady's demise was overrated

Rivers fell off (due to less pass attempts) once McCoy realized he had a running back

Palmer with a better line and more experience could be top 10 this year despite division

Fitzpatrick isn't that bad

Alex Smith is undervalued (offensive line losses shouldn't greatly impact a guy who only throws the ball 7 yards, right?)

RB:

Is Rashad Jennings the truth? I'm still on the fence

Mathews is underrated

WR:

I doubt AJ Green is top 5 this year, might fall out of top 10

Cooper is great value (I don't expect top 18, tho)

Jennings is ridiculous value

Garcon is overvalued

TE:

This data gave me nothing for this group

Bold statement on AJ green but I agree.

Garcon isn't overvalued at all, IMO. Down the stretch last year in ppr:

23

12

11

12

7

24 in week 15

29 in title week.

He was as steady as they come last year and blew up when it matters most. I admit, I'm probably biased because he was a big part of bringing me some titles but I can't called him overvalued because he did exactly what he was hoped to do last year.

Not sure why folks are down on Garcon. I think the arrival of Jackson and improved health of Reed will only help him. Safeties will have to shade to the speedy Jackson and account for Reed in the middle. Garcon is going to be a PPR monster. I'm targeting him in my redrafts this year for sure.

First off, I try to avoid PPR as best I can. Roughly half my leagues have it, but I don't like it. So please save me the "he's a stud in PPR" argument when defending a guy's production. As I'll explain in a second, it's probably not true in this case, but it's always presumptuous.

Second, I enjoy the blatant homer optimism of "if a good WR is added then my WR will benefit by being more open or if a good WR leaves then my WR will benefit by getting more targets". People want it both ways. But really, it's the latter. Targets are the name of the game.

Thus, SSOG hit the nail on the head. Garcon got an INSANE number of targets last year. Since that time, Reed has undoubtedly advanced his game, Roberts has been added, and Desean has been added. Kiss those PPR stats goodbye. The good news is that he can only improve on his TDs and Gruden isn't shy about throwing the ball. I don't think Garcon is a lost cause, but his upside is near his ADP and those are the players I try to avoid drafting. They aren't terrible to trade for if you can find a disappointed owner, but I'm not paying IPO price on a stock I expect to hold steady best case scenario.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Man, what a complete freak Gordon was last season.

Interesting things to me:

Brady was his old self after his rreceivers learned the game a bit.

DeMarco Murray and Rashad Jennings performed as good as anyone but Charles down the stretch.

Tavon Austin had a legit WR1 finish.

Gronk is still Gronk.

Garrett Graham performed surprisingly well with how awful that team was.

Everything you said are the things that stood out to me.

Also great contribution by Anarchy99 doing the research and starting this thread.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I totally agree. I was high on Garcon last season and my enthusiasm hasnt wavered this year.

so, you don't see gruden and mcvay replacing the shanahans making any difference?

Jay Gruden loves to throw the ball. Garcon could contend for most targets this season.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I totally agree. I was high on Garcon last season and my enthusiasm hasnt wavered this year.

so, you don't see gruden and mcvay replacing the shanahans making any difference?

Jay Gruden loves to throw the ball. Garcon could contend for most targets this season.

gruden loves to throw the ball

the shanahans loved throwing to garcon

 

[Ghost Rider]

No, RG3 loves throwing to Garcon, and the last time I checked, he is still their quarterback.

 

[jurb26]

No, RG3 loves throwing to Garcon, and the last time I checked, he is still their quarterback.

Who else was he going to throw to? Their WR sucked last year. They added 2 guys who are going to be significantly better than the guys they had last year. Add to it that Reed will be healthy (we hope) and further developed. The chances that Garçon matches his league high 183 targets is very remote.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

No, RG3 loves throwing to Garcon, and the last time I checked, he is still their quarterback.

yeah did he design and call the plays last year?

I don't even know why this is a discussion -- if you aren't aware that garcon's position is the focus of the shanahan offense then you're the only one.

 

[Rockchild]

No, RG3 loves throwing to Garcon, and the last time I checked, he is still their quarterback.

yeah did he design and call the plays last year?

I don't even know why this is a discussion -- if you aren't aware that garcon's position is the focus of the shanahan offense then you're the only one.

I believe the Gruden offenses also favours one WR.

 

[jurb26]

No, RG3 loves throwing to Garcon, and the last time I checked, he is still their quarterback.

yeah did he design and call the plays last year?

I don't even know why this is a discussion -- if you aren't aware that garcon's position is the focus of the shanahan offense then you're the only one.

I believe the Gruden offenses also favours one WR.

It may, but I think that's yet to be seen. Gruden had AJ Green all 3 years in Cinci and that's the only body of work we have. He has no AJ Green in Wash and Garçon is a far cry from him. Personally I think DJax is the best WR in Wash but his skill set varies from Garçon so much it probably doesn't matter. I think they compliment each other very well.

 

[Archer]

Garçon IS under valued in PPR leagues. Targets may go down but so will his double teams, while offense and scoring opportunities should improve with a healthy RG3.

 

[Ghost Rider]

No, RG3 loves throwing to Garcon, and the last time I checked, he is still their quarterback.

Who else was he going to throw to? Their WR sucked last year. They added 2 guys who are going to be significantly better than the guys they had last year. Add to it that Reed will be healthy (we hope) and further developed. The chances that Garçon matches his league high 183 targets is very remote.

That might be true, but I still think he'll see a ton of targets. Expecting 150+ targets again is more than reasonable, IMO. No, Garcon is no AJ Green, but I still see Washington throwing it a ton, especially if their defense continues to struggle and they are in a lot of shootouts.

 

[jurb26]

No, RG3 loves throwing to Garcon, and the last time I checked, he is still their quarterback.

Who else was he going to throw to? Their WR sucked last year. They added 2 guys who are going to be significantly better than the guys they had last year. Add to it that Reed will be healthy (we hope) and further developed. The chances that Garçon matches his league high 183 targets is very remote.

That might be true, but I still think he'll see a ton of targets. Expecting 150+ targets again is more than reasonable, IMO. No, Garcon is no AJ Green, but I still see Washington throwing it a ton, especially if their defense continues to struggle and they are in a lot of shootouts.

I think I projected him for 148 so we're not far apart.

 

[Adam Harstad]

No, RG3 loves throwing to Garcon, and the last time I checked, he is still their quarterback.

Who else was he going to throw to? Their WR sucked last year. They added 2 guys who are going to be significantly better than the guys they had last year. Add to it that Reed will be healthy (we hope) and further developed. The chances that Garçon matches his league high 183 targets is very remote.

That might be true, but I still think he'll see a ton of targets. Expecting 150+ targets again is more than reasonable, IMO. No, Garcon is no AJ Green, but I still see Washington throwing it a ton, especially if their defense continues to struggle and they are in a lot of shootouts.

I think I projected him for 148 so we're not far apart.

At 150 targets, Garcon would need to play at his 2012 efficiency levels (66% catch rate, 14.4 yards per reception) in order to match last season's PPR production. That's a tall order, given that the catch% was by far a career high, and the YPR figure was well above his career average (and, also, given just how magically efficient Washington's entire passing game was in 2012).

Last year's numbers were good enough for a WR11 finish, and Garcon is currently being drafted as the 11th receiver off the board. So, basically, if Garcon gets a realistic (but still fairly high) target volume and manages to match his career best efficiency stats, he will just barely live up to his preseason ADP.

All told, I think Garcon is slightly overrated right now. If he manages to get the necessary efficiency, I think it's probably because he fell short of the expected target volume. If he manages to get the necessary target volume, I think he's going to fall short of the necessary efficiency marks. I like him a lot better as a mid-WR2 than as a low-WR1, and that's where he's currently being drafted.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

No, RG3 loves throwing to Garcon, and the last time I checked, he is still their quarterback.

Who else was he going to throw to? Their WR sucked last year. They added 2 guys who are going to be significantly better than the guys they had last year. Add to it that Reed will be healthy (we hope) and further developed. The chances that Garçon matches his league high 183 targets is very remote.

That might be true, but I still think he'll see a ton of targets. Expecting 150+ targets again is more than reasonable, IMO. No, Garcon is no AJ Green, but I still see Washington throwing it a ton, especially if their defense continues to struggle and they are in a lot of shootouts.

I think I projected him for 148 so we're not far apart.

At 150 targets, Garcon would need to play at his 2012 efficiency levels (66% catch rate, 14.4 yards per reception) in order to match last season's PPR production. That's a tall order, given that the catch% was by far a career high, and the YPR figure was well above his career average (and, also, given just how magically efficient Washington's entire passing game was in 2012).

Last year's numbers were good enough for a WR11 finish, and Garcon is currently being drafted as the 11th receiver off the board. So, basically, if Garcon gets a realistic (but still fairly high) target volume and manages to match his career best efficiency stats, he will just barely live up to his preseason ADP.

All told, I think Garcon is slightly overrated right now. If he manages to get the necessary efficiency, I think it's probably because he fell short of the expected target volume. If he manages to get the necessary target volume, I think he's going to fall short of the necessary efficiency marks. I like him a lot better as a mid-WR2 than as a low-WR1, and that's where he's currently being drafted.

Outside of the typical top 9, I don't know who really deserves to be next.

Next group of guys are

Johnson - Have to be concerned about age and where his head is at

Garcon - argued enough here

VJAX - new qb and a questionable one at that (McCown best previous year 11td/10int).

Cobb - best finish thus far is 17, coming off an injury. Lacy and Boykin will take some targets away from what he had 2 years ago.

Allen - 1 season - Hard to believe he will improve enough to move up from 17

Cruz - Manning was terrible last year - killing his value

Fitz - bad ol - Floyd up and coming

White - getting old / injuries starting to be a concern

Harvin - talk about injury concerns - run first offense - great defense

Welker - also getting older - has a clearly better wr on the roster - manning almost has to regress

Patterson - horrible qb situation - peterson focal point

Crabtree - bolind/johnson/davis + running team to begin with

A few others depending on who you ask

I don't think a strong case for anyone at 10 can be made. Garcon at least has been there before, is in his prime, and has the same young/good qb. I have it Cobb - VJAX - Johnson - Garcon but really I hope to sneak the last one or two from this group.

 

[Rockchild]

No, RG3 loves throwing to Garcon, and the last time I checked, he is still their quarterback.

yeah did he design and call the plays last year?

I don't even know why this is a discussion -- if you aren't aware that garcon's position is the focus of the shanahan offense then you're the only one.

I believe the Gruden offenses also favours one WR.

It may, but I think that's yet to be seen. Gruden had AJ Green all 3 years in Cinci and that's the only body of work we have. He has no AJ Green in Wash and Garçon is a far cry from him. Personally I think DJax is the best WR in Wash but his skill set varies from Garçon so much it probably doesn't matter. I think they compliment each other very well.

I should have been more clear as I think Jay's offensive philosophy is similar to his brothers whose schemes featured one WR heavily and he didn't always have super studs putting up good numbers. Not saying the're indentical but variation of a theme.

 

[Ghost Rider]

No, RG3 loves throwing to Garcon, and the last time I checked, he is still their quarterback.

Who else was he going to throw to? Their WR sucked last year. They added 2 guys who are going to be significantly better than the guys they had last year. Add to it that Reed will be healthy (we hope) and further developed. The chances that Garçon matches his league high 183 targets is very remote.

That might be true, but I still think he'll see a ton of targets. Expecting 150+ targets again is more than reasonable, IMO. No, Garcon is no AJ Green, but I still see Washington throwing it a ton, especially if their defense continues to struggle and they are in a lot of shootouts.

I think I projected him for 148 so we're not far apart.

At 150 targets, Garcon would need to play at his 2012 efficiency levels (66% catch rate, 14.4 yards per reception) in order to match last season's PPR production. That's a tall order, given that the catch% was by far a career high, and the YPR figure was well above his career average (and, also, given just how magically efficient Washington's entire passing game was in 2012).

Last year's numbers were good enough for a WR11 finish, and Garcon is currently being drafted as the 11th receiver off the board. So, basically, if Garcon gets a realistic (but still fairly high) target volume and manages to match his career best efficiency stats, he will just barely live up to his preseason ADP.

All told, I think Garcon is slightly overrated right now. If he manages to get the necessary efficiency, I think it's probably because he fell short of the expected target volume. If he manages to get the necessary target volume, I think he's going to fall short of the necessary efficiency marks. I like him a lot better as a mid-WR2 than as a low-WR1, and that's where he's currently being drafted.

That's a good breakdown, but it's also interesting to note that Garcon only caught 5 touchdowns last year. While he has never been a big TD producer (4, 6, 6, 4 and 5 since playing regularly), he could easily jump up to 8-10, especially since Gruden is more likely to have them throwing inside the 10 than Shanny did (since Shanny loves to run it from in close). Now, obviously touchdowns are completely unpredictable, but I think it's more likely that his touchdowns rise than stay stagnant, especially if Washington's offense clicks like most of us think it will.

 

[Adam Harstad]

No, RG3 loves throwing to Garcon, and the last time I checked, he is still their quarterback.

Who else was he going to throw to? Their WR sucked last year. They added 2 guys who are going to be significantly better than the guys they had last year. Add to it that Reed will be healthy (we hope) and further developed. The chances that Garçon matches his league high 183 targets is very remote.

That might be true, but I still think he'll see a ton of targets. Expecting 150+ targets again is more than reasonable, IMO. No, Garcon is no AJ Green, but I still see Washington throwing it a ton, especially if their defense continues to struggle and they are in a lot of shootouts.

I think I projected him for 148 so we're not far apart.

At 150 targets, Garcon would need to play at his 2012 efficiency levels (66% catch rate, 14.4 yards per reception) in order to match last season's PPR production. That's a tall order, given that the catch% was by far a career high, and the YPR figure was well above his career average (and, also, given just how magically efficient Washington's entire passing game was in 2012).

Last year's numbers were good enough for a WR11 finish, and Garcon is currently being drafted as the 11th receiver off the board. So, basically, if Garcon gets a realistic (but still fairly high) target volume and manages to match his career best efficiency stats, he will just barely live up to his preseason ADP.

All told, I think Garcon is slightly overrated right now. If he manages to get the necessary efficiency, I think it's probably because he fell short of the expected target volume. If he manages to get the necessary target volume, I think he's going to fall short of the necessary efficiency marks. I like him a lot better as a mid-WR2 than as a low-WR1, and that's where he's currently being drafted.

That's a good breakdown, but it's also interesting to note that Garcon only caught 5 touchdowns last year. While he has never been a big TD producer (4, 6, 6, 4 and 5 since playing regularly), he could easily jump up to 8-10, especially since Gruden is more likely to have them throwing inside the 10 than Shanny did (since Shanny loves to run it from in close). Now, obviously touchdowns are completely unpredictable, but I think it's more likely that his touchdowns rise than stay stagnant, especially if Washington's offense clicks like most of us think it will.

I was anticipating somewhere between 6-8 TDs for Garcon. Anything above that is a bit of a stretch as a projection, since saying Garcon has never been a big TD producer is a serious understatement. In 2010, Indianapolis was 2nd in the league in passing TDs, and their receivers were Wayne, Garcon, 9 games of Austin Collie, 6 games of Dallas Clark, and Blair White. Pierre Garcon finished the season with... 6 TDs. That stands as his career high. For his career, Garcon has 79 red zone targets and just 13 TDs, an abysmal 16.5% conversion rate. Since 2002, 73 receivers have had 70+ red zone targets, and Garcon ranks 69th out of that group in conversion rate- despite playing most of his career with Peyton Manning.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I should have been more clear as I think Jay's offensive philosophy is similar to his brothers whose schemes featured one WR heavily and he didn't always have super studs putting up good numbers. Not saying the're indentical but variation of a theme.

and you're convinced this one wr will be garcon, rather than djax?

 

[Ghost Rider]

No, RG3 loves throwing to Garcon, and the last time I checked, he is still their quarterback.

Who else was he going to throw to? Their WR sucked last year. They added 2 guys who are going to be significantly better than the guys they had last year. Add to it that Reed will be healthy (we hope) and further developed. The chances that Garçon matches his league high 183 targets is very remote.

That might be true, but I still think he'll see a ton of targets. Expecting 150+ targets again is more than reasonable, IMO. No, Garcon is no AJ Green, but I still see Washington throwing it a ton, especially if their defense continues to struggle and they are in a lot of shootouts.

I think I projected him for 148 so we're not far apart.

At 150 targets, Garcon would need to play at his 2012 efficiency levels (66% catch rate, 14.4 yards per reception) in order to match last season's PPR production. That's a tall order, given that the catch% was by far a career high, and the YPR figure was well above his career average (and, also, given just how magically efficient Washington's entire passing game was in 2012).

Last year's numbers were good enough for a WR11 finish, and Garcon is currently being drafted as the 11th receiver off the board. So, basically, if Garcon gets a realistic (but still fairly high) target volume and manages to match his career best efficiency stats, he will just barely live up to his preseason ADP.

All told, I think Garcon is slightly overrated right now. If he manages to get the necessary efficiency, I think it's probably because he fell short of the expected target volume. If he manages to get the necessary target volume, I think he's going to fall short of the necessary efficiency marks. I like him a lot better as a mid-WR2 than as a low-WR1, and that's where he's currently being drafted.

That's a good breakdown, but it's also interesting to note that Garcon only caught 5 touchdowns last year. While he has never been a big TD producer (4, 6, 6, 4 and 5 since playing regularly), he could easily jump up to 8-10, especially since Gruden is more likely to have them throwing inside the 10 than Shanny did (since Shanny loves to run it from in close). Now, obviously touchdowns are completely unpredictable, but I think it's more likely that his touchdowns rise than stay stagnant, especially if Washington's offense clicks like most of us think it will.

I was anticipating somewhere between 6-8 TDs for Garcon. Anything above that is a bit of a stretch as a projection, since saying Garcon has never been a big TD producer is a serious understatement. In 2010, Indianapolis was 2nd in the league in passing TDs, and their receivers were Wayne, Garcon, 9 games of Austin Collie, 6 games of Dallas Clark, and Blair White. Pierre Garcon finished the season with... 6 TDs. That stands as his career high. For his career, Garcon has 79 red zone targets and just 13 TDs, an abysmal 16.5% conversion rate. Since 2002, 73 receivers have had 70+ red zone targets, and Garcon ranks 69th out of that group in conversion rate- despite playing most of his career with Peyton Manning.

That is definitely pretty poor, and certainly something to consider when evaluating Garcon's value this year. Honestly, I have not looked at rankings much so far this summer, but 11th does seem a bit high. I'd probably put Garcon mid-teens, give or take, but I see him as one of those guys that some will rank high in nearly every league, so getting him for good value will be tough this year, like you said. All it takes is one guy to think he is top 10 and all of a sudden he is going for more than I want to pay in an auction.

 

[Rockchild]

I should have been more clear as I think Jay's offensive philosophy is similar to his brothers whose schemes featured one WR heavily and he didn't always have super studs putting up good numbers. Not saying the're indentical but variation of a theme.

and you're convinced this one wr will be garcon, rather than djax?

I think he's more versatile and more willing to go across the middle than DJax allowing for more targets. Am I convinced? Not 100% but at this point I'm much higher on Garcon than DJax.

 

[Sabertooth]

I think there are only a few players like Djax and he's going to get open deep plenty. rg3 is poised for awesome season of 30+ touchdowns

 

[az_prof]

I seem to recall an article from years ago (perhaps on the PFR blog?) that found that the correlation between performance in the second half of year N and performance in year N+1 was lower than the correlation between performance over the entirety of year N and performance in year N+1, though I've been unable to find it in a quick google search. Does anyone else remember the article I'm referring to or know where I could find it again?

On the whole, I would worry that half-season splits would be much more susceptible to influence by a single outlier game (see: Austin, Tavon).

I vaguely remember the same thing Adam. And it makes sense: the smaller your data set the more susceptible to outlier games and injury impacted games, among other variables.