Forgotten Men - QBs (1 Viewer)

[gonzobill5]

Every year there are solid but unspectacular players, who are usually getting up there in age, that are overlooked in fantasy drafts because owners are too fixated looking for the next best thing. There are so many threads discussing the sleepers and other threads about guys who can jump up to the elite level. However there are none (that i've seen) on the guys that are a good bet to give you predictable results who can be had cheap. I'm talking about players that have a high probability of outperforming their ADP, but perhaps have a low probability of significantly outperforming their ADP.

I'll throw a few QBs out there that I haven't heard many positive things about to get the discussion started. Feel free to trash the picks, throw your own out there, or add any other comments you feel are appropriate. If it generates interest, I'll do the RBs and WRs too. The numbers next to the names are this year's ADP vs. last year's rank.

QBs:

Chad Pennington - 22/10

He was an MVP candidate, remember? 3600 yards, over 20 TDs? I get it, when you think of Pennington you think weak armed and brittle. You think the Dolphins were a fluke and will be out of it by November. Maybe your right, but the fact is, Pennington has always been at least a solid #2 QB on a ppg basis, and he has an excellent line in front of him to keep him healthy now. Add in a few playmakers on offense and there is no reason this guy can't turn into one of the best QB 2's in the league, and I wouldn't be surprised if he went undrafted in most leagues.

Jake Delhomme - 23/19

Ok, everyone remembers the playoff game against Arizona, so let's not go there. He had the fewest attempts of any QB that started all 16 games and still finished higher than this years ADP. and he had more yards and TDs than Matt Schaub on a similar # of completions. His YPA was outstanding, he has a great OLine, the best running game in the league, a legit #1 WR, and a solid possession receiver. Last year I drafted him and Aaron Rodgers in back to back rounds (11th and 12th I think). Having Delhomme on your team allows you the flexibility to take a chance on an unknown player that may or may not pan out.

Marc Bulger - QB 27/27

Coming in to 2008, I was already convinced he was done. Ints > TDs two consecutive years pretty much seals the deal. But this year, I'm intrigued by him. Here's why - he's been sacked about 3 times per game on average pretty much his entire career. He's been in offense after offense where he is expected to lead the way. Spags comes in and gets rid of Pace who is a shell of his former self, gets the best LT in the draft, and promises to run the ball down people's throats and play defense. Bulger won't be back to 4000+ yards, but he is being drafted around Stafford, Sanchez, Quinn, Rosenfels and Russell and I don't see how he doesn't outperform them.

 

[puckalicious]

Hasselbeck seems like a forgotten QB this year. As long as he can stay healthy he'll be a viable QB1.

 

[FUBAR]

What are you using for ADP?

Off hand, looking at SSL leagues:

NAME ADP / Projection

David Garrard QB16 / 12

Jason Campbell QB22 / 16

Kerry Collins QB28 / 22

Shaun Hill QB29 / 16

I won't be going after any of these guys as my QB1 but would be pretty happy with them as my 2.

 

[Truman]

Bulger - Was a borderline top 5 QB 2 years ago. Will have an improved line and a healthy SJax (hopefully) should outperform his position

Hasselbeck - When healthy is a lowend QB1 with incredible consistency. You can have him as a cheap QB2.

Shaun Hill - Only 49ers QB since Garcia to post a winning record. Will start for them and has always posted decent FF numbers in the past. No reason he would drop off now with an improved line + Crabtree and a healthy Gore. Improved defense will help even further. Can be had in very late rounds.

Garrard - I love players coming off seasons where they are undervalued due to decimated o-lines. QB2

 

[gonzobill5]

What are you using for ADP?Off hand, looking at SSL leagues:NAME ADP / ProjectionDavid Garrard QB16 / 12Jason Campbell QB22 / 16Kerry Collins QB28 / 22Shaun Hill QB29 / 16I won't be going after any of these guys as my QB1 but would be pretty happy with them as my 2.

I'm using the rankings at FBGs. All very good suggestions. -I think Garrard is a very safe pick and probably will outperform his position significantly. -Initially when I looked at Collins I saw a VERY limited upside - but if the D takes a step back the Titans might need to rely on the passing game even more. -I can't get over how bad Hill looked in the Arizona game this year, but I remember Chase Stuart talking him up if I'm not mistaken, so maybe I should re-evaluate. A few really bad games doesn't mean much, just like Delhomme in my list. -Besides the OLine, the only thing holding Campbell back is himself - he needs to learn to take some chances. As I remember, Campbell started off the year doing a spectacular job of taking care of the ball and limiting turnovers. Moss had a few big games. As the year wore on that offense just became more and more predictable. I'm not sure how much of the blame he deserves for that. Thanks for these, I play in a number of start 2 QB leagues and knowing that there is value to had always enables me to still focus on WRs and RBs early.

 

[Sabertooth]

Hasselbeck seems like a forgotten QB this year. As long as he can stay healthy he'll be a viable QB1.

Came in here to post this. Hass is a really nice steady starter. He was hurt and the receiver corps was decimated by injury last season. Now with Housh, Burleson healthy, and himself healthy, he could have one of his best seasons yet.

 

[flranger]

I'm not sure if it will be Leftwich or McKown, but don't sleep on Tampa's QB situation. A very good, young o line and the starters will have all been together for more than 1 year. Bryant at the WR and two good receiving TE's in Winslow and Stevens to go along with Derrick Ward catching balls out of the backfield.

If your in an auction you could get both and probably not pay hardly anything. I would guarantee the winner of the QB competition will outproduce draft position.

 

[gonzobill5]

I'm not sure if it will be Leftwich or McKown, but don't sleep on Tampa's QB situation. A very good, young o line and the starters will have all been together for more than 1 year. Bryant at the WR and two good receiving TE's in Winslow and Stevens to go along with Derrick Ward catching balls out of the backfield. If your in an auction you could get both and probably not pay hardly anything. I would guarantee the winner of the QB competition will outproduce draft position.

Did TB keep their OC? How much of their effectiveness on offense had to do with Gruden? I agree that there is a lot of upside here, especially with McKown - I'd just like to have a better idea of what is going on in Tampa. Denver with Orton and Simms is a similar situation. If I had more trust in the coaching staffs I'd be more likely to jump on these guys.

 

[gump]

I'm not sure if it will be Leftwich or McKown, but don't sleep on Tampa's QB situation. A very good, young o line and the starters will have all been together for more than 1 year. Bryant at the WR and two good receiving TE's in Winslow and Stevens to go along with Derrick Ward catching balls out of the backfield. If your in an auction you could get both and probably not pay hardly anything. I would guarantee the winner of the QB competition will outproduce draft position.

Did TB keep their OC? How much of their effectiveness on offense had to do with Gruden? I agree that there is a lot of upside here, especially with McKown - I'd just like to have a better idea of what is going on in Tampa. Denver with Orton and Simms is a similar situation. If I had more trust in the coaching staffs I'd be more likely to jump on these guys.

Jeff Jagodzinski is the new OC...who of course groomed Matt Ryan in college. The Gruden WCO is gone.

 

[Crippler]

Joe Flacco. Gets ranked about #20 overall in drafts and FBG. The issue I have is Ryan is top 10 and from week 7 on last year when Baltimore opened it up more, Flacco outscored him. Just cant see why the discrepancy is that much in the end. I think Baltimore opens it up even more this year and uses Flaccos great arm. Just dont see a plus 10 difference in ranking between the 2.

 

[netnalp]

Trent Edwards. I think he's a great QB for those that like to wait on drafting QB's and I don't see him mentioned much in any sleeper lists which I like. TO & Evans plus Fred Jackson and Lynch means the running game should be there.

Hasselback & Garrard seem to be the top sleepers being named, pretty much guaranteeing they'll be drafted too early in my leagues.

 

[Harjiran]

Joe Flacco. Gets ranked about #20 overall in drafts and FBG. The issue I have is Ryan is top 10 and from week 7 on last year when Baltimore opened it up more, Flacco outscored him. Just cant see why the discrepancy is that much in the end. I think Baltimore opens it up even more this year and uses Flaccos great arm. Just dont see a plus 10 difference in ranking between the 2.

Joe Flacco doesn't get enough respect on these boards.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

Joe Flacco. Gets ranked about #20 overall in drafts and FBG. The issue I have is Ryan is top 10 and from week 7 on last year when Baltimore opened it up more, Flacco outscored him. Just cant see why the discrepancy is that much in the end. I think Baltimore opens it up even more this year and uses Flaccos great arm. Just dont see a plus 10 difference in ranking between the 2.

I agree. At current ADPs, I have Ryan as overvalued and Flacco undervalued. I expect Flacco to take a step in his development (same with Ryan). Garrard is another I love at his ADP/value.

 

[gonzobill5]

Trent Edwards. I think he's a great QB for those that like to wait on drafting QB's and I don't see him mentioned much in any sleeper lists which I like. TO & Evans plus Fred Jackson and Lynch means the running game should be there.Hasselback & Garrard seem to be the top sleepers being named, pretty much guaranteeing they'll be drafted too early in my leagues.

TO, Evans, and Jackson will be on my Forgotten Men RB/WR lists - so I must concur about Edwards.

 

[cubbie5150]

I was eyeballing Hass as a good value pick (I tend to go QB late), but I see him getting mentioned more & more as such, so by the time my primary redraft league draft comes around, he'll likely go higher than where I'd want to take him.

 

[Tanner9919]

Every year there are solid but unspectacular players, who are usually getting up there in age, that are overlooked in fantasy drafts because owners are too fixated looking for the next best thing. There are so many threads discussing the sleepers and other threads about guys who can jump up to the elite level. However there are none (that i've seen) on the guys that are a good bet to give you predictable results who can be had cheap. I'm talking about players that have a high probability of outperforming their ADP, but perhaps have a low probability of significantly outperforming their ADP. I'll throw a few QBs out there that I haven't heard many positive things about to get the discussion started. Feel free to trash the picks, throw your own out there, or add any other comments you feel are appropriate. If it generates interest, I'll do the RBs and WRs too. The numbers next to the names are this year's ADP vs. last year's rank. QBs: Chad Pennington - 22/10 He was an MVP candidate, remember? 3600 yards, over 20 TDs? I get it, when you think of Pennington you think weak armed and brittle. You think the Dolphins were a fluke and will be out of it by November. Maybe your right, but the fact is, Pennington has always been at least a solid #2 QB on a ppg basis, and he has an excellent line in front of him to keep him healthy now. Add in a few playmakers on offense and there is no reason this guy can't turn into one of the best QB 2's in the league, and I wouldn't be surprised if he went undrafted in most leagues. Jake Delhomme - 23/19 Ok, everyone remembers the playoff game against Arizona, so let's not go there. He had the fewest attempts of any QB that started all 16 games and still finished higher than this years ADP. and he had more yards and TDs than Matt Schaub on a similar # of completions. His YPA was outstanding, he has a great OLine, the best running game in the league, a legit #1 WR, and a solid possession receiver. Last year I drafted him and Aaron Rodgers in back to back rounds (11th and 12th I think). Having Delhomme on your team allows you the flexibility to take a chance on an unknown player that may or may not pan out. Marc Bulger - QB 27/27 Coming in to 2008, I was already convinced he was done. Ints > TDs two consecutive years pretty much seals the deal. But this year, I'm intrigued by him. Here's why - he's been sacked about 3 times per game on average pretty much his entire career. He's been in offense after offense where he is expected to lead the way. Spags comes in and gets rid of Pace who is a shell of his former self, gets the best LT in the draft, and promises to run the ball down people's throats and play defense. Bulger won't be back to 4000+ yards, but he is being drafted around Stafford, Sanchez, Quinn, Rosenfels and Russell and I don't see how he doesn't outperform them.

Delhomme and Bulger are forgotten because they're just plain washed up..Bulger's situation is worse, no top quality WR's , suspect O-line, oft-injured RB, new, first time OC, new HC..after his first 4-int game, Delhomme will be benched.a forgotten man for me is Phillip Rivers. statwise, he's not going to regress this season...the SD running game is not what it once was, even with Sproles getting more work.LT is finished as a top 10 RB, and what we saw last season, i.e., the pass-happy Chargers, will continue this year. Rivers is a lock for a top 5 QB finish yet again, but he's not being ranked as such right now..buy low!

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Every year there are solid but unspectacular players, who are usually getting up there in age, that are overlooked in fantasy drafts because owners are too fixated looking for the next best thing. There are so many threads discussing the sleepers and other threads about guys who can jump up to the elite level. However there are none (that i've seen) on the guys that are a good bet to give you predictable results who can be had cheap. I'm talking about players that have a high probability of outperforming their ADP, but perhaps have a low probability of significantly outperforming their ADP. I'll throw a few QBs out there that I haven't heard many positive things about to get the discussion started. Feel free to trash the picks, throw your own out there, or add any other comments you feel are appropriate. If it generates interest, I'll do the RBs and WRs too. The numbers next to the names are this year's ADP vs. last year's rank. QBs: Chad Pennington - 22/10 He was an MVP candidate, remember? 3600 yards, over 20 TDs? I get it, when you think of Pennington you think weak armed and brittle. You think the Dolphins were a fluke and will be out of it by November. Maybe your right, but the fact is, Pennington has always been at least a solid #2 QB on a ppg basis, and he has an excellent line in front of him to keep him healthy now. Add in a few playmakers on offense and there is no reason this guy can't turn into one of the best QB 2's in the league, and I wouldn't be surprised if he went undrafted in most leagues. Jake Delhomme - 23/19 Ok, everyone remembers the playoff game against Arizona, so let's not go there. He had the fewest attempts of any QB that started all 16 games and still finished higher than this years ADP. and he had more yards and TDs than Matt Schaub on a similar # of completions. His YPA was outstanding, he has a great OLine, the best running game in the league, a legit #1 WR, and a solid possession receiver. Last year I drafted him and Aaron Rodgers in back to back rounds (11th and 12th I think). Having Delhomme on your team allows you the flexibility to take a chance on an unknown player that may or may not pan out. Marc Bulger - QB 27/27 Coming in to 2008, I was already convinced he was done. Ints > TDs two consecutive years pretty much seals the deal. But this year, I'm intrigued by him. Here's why - he's been sacked about 3 times per game on average pretty much his entire career. He's been in offense after offense where he is expected to lead the way. Spags comes in and gets rid of Pace who is a shell of his former self, gets the best LT in the draft, and promises to run the ball down people's throats and play defense. Bulger won't be back to 4000+ yards, but he is being drafted around Stafford, Sanchez, Quinn, Rosenfels and Russell and I don't see how he doesn't outperform them.

sorry I dont want any of these guys anywhere near any of teams. This is who I like as QB2's:Matt HasslebeckTrent EdwardsIf you want to wait after the top 5/6 QB's are gone I would grab:McNabbPalmer

 

[trader jake]

Great thread but I want nothing to do with Pennington, Delhomme, or Bulger...even in a redraft. Only Delhomme has the upside but he'll be on a shorter leash this season.

Roethlisberger (#14), Hasselbeck (#17), and Trent Edwards (#18) are all 'back-ups' in standard size leagues but could easily find themselves in the top 12 in the end of season stats. Leftwich (#31) would be my long shot QB because he finally looks healthy and I think Tampa would be wise to redshirt Freeman.

 

[gonzobill5]

Great thread but I want nothing to do with Pennington, Delhomme, or Bulger...even in a redraft. Only Delhomme has the upside but he'll be on a shorter leash this season.Roethlisberger (#14), Hasselbeck (#17), and Trent Edwards (#18) are all 'back-ups' in standard size leagues but could easily find themselves in the top 12 in the end of season stats. Leftwich (#31) would be my long shot QB because he finally looks healthy and I think Tampa would be wise to redshirt Freeman.

I like Hasselbeck and Edwards at their ADP. However, I don't think either is a lock to finish at or above it. I think both have a high risk/reward, and I wouldn't mind pairing them with a guy like Pennington to minimize the risk.

 

[Instinctive]

You're so right about Penny. Could anybody here give a reason why not to take him, and back it up? I have had him on my teams the last 4 years or so, and he has always scored well for me when paired with a guy like Garrard or Schaub or another QB2. He takes care of the ball, plays on a solid team, and is surrounded by playmakers. What's not to like?

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

Kyle Orton put up good FF numbers at times last season (edit: overall, looks like 8 "starter-worthy" weeks), and we know what he was throwing to in Chicago. With Marshall, Royal, some good linemen, another pass-catching RB to check down to in Moreno, Orton should be servicable.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

You're so right about Penny. Could anybody here give a reason why not to take him, and back it up? I have had him on my teams the last 4 years or so, and he has always scored well for me when paired with a guy like Garrard or Schaub or another QB2. He takes care of the ball, plays on a solid team, and is surrounded by playmakers. What's not to like?

I think his upside is very limited and he has a "pocket passer" type QB on the roster that might play at the end of the year and a wildcat rookie QB. Schaub will not be a QB2 this season in most leagues.