gonzobill5
Footballguy
Every year there are solid but unspectacular players who are usually getting up there in age, that get overlooked in fantasy drafts because owners are too fixated on looking for the next best thing. There are so many threads discussing the sleepers and other threads about guys who can jump up to the elite level. However there are none (that i've seen) on the guys that are a good bet to give you predictable results who can be had cheap. I'm talking about players that have a high probability of outperforming their ADP, but perhaps aren't generating a lot of buzz because they have a low probability of significantly outperforming their ADP. Here are the RBs on my list:
(numbers next to the names are the consensus ADP by position followed by last year's rank by position)
Willie Parker 28/40
If you land him as a third RB you'll be sitting pretty. I thought he was a huge value play in 07 after an unusually low TD total in 06. Of course he explodes onto the scene in 08 only to get banged up and never regain his form. It seems like no one is looking in his direction this year, but I think he can put together another year of low end RB1 production if he stays healthy.
Brandon Jacobs 13/12
In my opinion, he's the best RB in the NFC east at this point in his career, and that is saying a lot. With Ward gone to TB, the possibility that he could take on a bigger role is there, IF he can stay healthy. Fact is he probably won't play a full slate with his penchant for drawing contact, but he'll still be a PPG beast and score a 1+ TDs per game.
Larry Johnson 26/29
I think I'm on an island with this one. He's turning 30 and been injured two years in a row - so I'm not expecting a return to 05-06. My argument is simple - If LJ can make good with the new regime, he still has the talent to rack up a few monster games against Denver, Oakland or whatever weak defenses show up on his schedule. And, if those big games come early, he's got that name recognition that could make him ideal trade bait.
Thomas Jones 22/5
I had a post a few weeks ago about which RB was most likely to drop out of the top 20 - and an overwhelming number of people picked Jones. Now I'm not counting on him being top 5 again, but his OLine is still excellent, and that team will be relying on their running game to help out whichever young QB wins the job. I expect the Jets to have a very good defense this year, and there will be plenty of carries to go around. My only concern is the schedule - he racked up some monster games against Denver and St. Louis and might not face such forgiving defenses in 09.
Fred Jackson 45/41
As a Lynch owner last year, I watched a bunch of Buffalo games and I can honestly say that I'm not sure which back is better. Don't get me wrong, Lynch is great at what he does - he's tenacious, fights for extra yards, and has the speed to get it done. Jackson is a different player, but you can't deny that he's been every bit as productive. I think he's shiftier, and much better at getting to his top speed. If you are targetting any guys like Felix Jones, Sproles, Donald Brown, or other guys that are more likely to have an impact as the year wears on, I think Jackson is a valuable pick at his ADP.
Love to hear your thoughts/comments/additions
(numbers next to the names are the consensus ADP by position followed by last year's rank by position)
Willie Parker 28/40
If you land him as a third RB you'll be sitting pretty. I thought he was a huge value play in 07 after an unusually low TD total in 06. Of course he explodes onto the scene in 08 only to get banged up and never regain his form. It seems like no one is looking in his direction this year, but I think he can put together another year of low end RB1 production if he stays healthy.
Brandon Jacobs 13/12
In my opinion, he's the best RB in the NFC east at this point in his career, and that is saying a lot. With Ward gone to TB, the possibility that he could take on a bigger role is there, IF he can stay healthy. Fact is he probably won't play a full slate with his penchant for drawing contact, but he'll still be a PPG beast and score a 1+ TDs per game.
Larry Johnson 26/29
I think I'm on an island with this one. He's turning 30 and been injured two years in a row - so I'm not expecting a return to 05-06. My argument is simple - If LJ can make good with the new regime, he still has the talent to rack up a few monster games against Denver, Oakland or whatever weak defenses show up on his schedule. And, if those big games come early, he's got that name recognition that could make him ideal trade bait.
Thomas Jones 22/5
I had a post a few weeks ago about which RB was most likely to drop out of the top 20 - and an overwhelming number of people picked Jones. Now I'm not counting on him being top 5 again, but his OLine is still excellent, and that team will be relying on their running game to help out whichever young QB wins the job. I expect the Jets to have a very good defense this year, and there will be plenty of carries to go around. My only concern is the schedule - he racked up some monster games against Denver and St. Louis and might not face such forgiving defenses in 09.
Fred Jackson 45/41
As a Lynch owner last year, I watched a bunch of Buffalo games and I can honestly say that I'm not sure which back is better. Don't get me wrong, Lynch is great at what he does - he's tenacious, fights for extra yards, and has the speed to get it done. Jackson is a different player, but you can't deny that he's been every bit as productive. I think he's shiftier, and much better at getting to his top speed. If you are targetting any guys like Felix Jones, Sproles, Donald Brown, or other guys that are more likely to have an impact as the year wears on, I think Jackson is a valuable pick at his ADP.
Love to hear your thoughts/comments/additions
I'm sure I'm not the only one who makes that mistake.
Kevin Smith was RB #18/19 last year despite splitting time with Rudi Johnson for the first half of the year. He didn't really start to see double digit carries until he hit week 8 and despite that and the horrible O-line/QB, he still was QB #18.
He is so solid year in and year out. I don't think he'll ever be top 3, but he's a guy I can take at the end of the first round every year and get value--and not worry about a bust. That's so huge.
