Four starting RBs in the AFC West (1 Viewer)

[Raider Nation]

If this happened, I'm just wondering if that would be a record for combined rushing yards by four starting running backs in one division. I don't have that data handy.

There have been several teams in NFL history that fielded “dynamic duos”

at running back. From Larry Csonka and Jim Kiick to Marcus Allen and Bo

Jackson, the dreaded “two headed monster” seems to appear every now and

again.

There’s no one team like that in the AFC West this year, but there are

four good, if not excellent, running backs that should get the bulk of

the carries for their respective teams. If everything falls into place,

we could see record-shattering rushing totals within the division in 2006.

To my knowledge, the total rushing yards amassed between the premiere

running backs of any particular division has never been documented as a

whole. After this season, that may change. The four running backs atop

their respective depth charts in the AFC West have a chance to run into

history. Barring injury, Larry Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson, LaMont

Jordan and Tatum Bell have a good chance to rush for a combined 7,000

yards. If records are kept on such a thing, they will likely shatter

those records, or at the very least set a new one.

When it comes to the Chiefs, it’s pretty simple. It’s all about Johnson.

After Priest Holmes’ season ended prematurely due to a neck injury,

Johnson got his chance to prove himself as a full-time player. The

third-year back out of Penn State started only nine games but managed to

rush for 1,750 yards and averaged 5.2 yards per carry.

Even with the possible return of Holmes, Johnson will get the nod as the

featured back. When the Chiefs offensive line is doing its’ job, Johnson

pounces on opposing defenses, running at will. Johnson rushed for more

than 100 yards in every start last year, passing the 200-yard mark twice.

At 6’1” and 230 pounds, Johnson runs downhill, bowling over defenders in

his path. Had he started every game last year, Johnson could have easily

crushed Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record of 2,105 yards.

Johnson is not the only back in the AFC West with a chance to break

Dickerson’s record. San Diego’s LaDainian Tomlinson has a good shot. In

five seasons, Tomlinson has 7,361 yards rushing and 72 touchdowns.

Although he’s fallen well over 400 yards short of Dickerson’s record

before, a special player like Tomlinson should never be counted out.

Tomlinson ended 2005 without a single 100-yard game in December. A lot

of that had to do with San Diego’s struggles during a failed attempt to

make the playoffs. A lot of times he simply did not get enough carries.

The formula for success should be an easy one for Marty Schottenheimer

this year. Get the ball in Tomlinson’s hands and the Chargers will win.

There is every reason to believe that “LT” will get the touches this

season and have a career year.

In Oakland, LaMont Jordan may be the best-kept secret among NFL running

backs. Despite another horrible season for the Raiders in which their

offense struggled with injuries and poor quarterback play, Jordan still

managed to produce, rushing for 1,025 yards and catching passes for

another 563. Those are pretty solid numbers considering how

disappointing the rest of the offense was. Jordan should have a chance

to improve on them in 2006.

Oakland’s offensive line played below expectations in 2005, but that

should change under new Head Coach Art Shell. Even with a new system,

the line should be better after playing together for a year with Jordan.

With a new quarterback and hopefully a healthy receiving corps, holes

could open up quite nicely for Jordan in 2006. If Oakland’s offense can

threaten downfield consistently and spread defenses out with multiple

receiver sets, then Jordan should be able to improve on last year’s 3.8

yards-per-carry average. Jordan averaged 5.15 yards a carry while with

the Jets. If he can return to that form then he will do his part in the

quest for 7,000 yards.

Denver lost Mike Anderson to free agency, so Tatum Bell will get a shot

to be the star running back. Bell rushed for 921 yards on just 173

carries last year, and he has averaged 5.3 yards per carry in each of

his first two seasons.

Bell has fresh legs and will run behind one of the best offensive lines

in the NFL. The Broncos have been a running back factory and Bell is

just another in a long line of backs to make Denver one of the most

consistent rushing offenses of the modern era.

With Jake Plummer at quarterback, Bell will get plenty of carries.

Plummer will only be asked to make plays when he has to. Bell should

have every opportunity to get close to 300 carries. If Denver’s line can

continue to stay healthy, he has a good chance to run for 1,500 yards.

If all four running backs can stay healthy, the AFC West - which has

been traditionally known for aerial fireworks - will get a new

reputation as a bruising rushing division. Teams will get points through

the air, but that will only make these running backs all the more

dangerous. The AFC West Report will update the quest for 7,000 yards

after every week this season.

This article originated from http://www.scout.com/, though I can't find the exact link at the moment.It's an interesting idea, but you have to question this comment by the author:

Bell should have every opportunity to get close to 300 carries.

Rotation with Dayne down???

 

[SSOG]

No way in hell the AFC West quartet combines for 7000 yards. That's 1750 yards EACH. Denver's platooning, Tomlinson's never rushed for 1750 yards in his career, and Jordan averaged 3.8 yards per carry last year (and would need a record-shattering 460 carries at that clip to hit 1750). Larry Johnson is the only AFC West RB with a chance to break 1750. Well, Tomlinson has a chance, but I don't think it's a great one.

I also disagree that the AFC West is known as an ariel division. Maybe in the 60s, but not in the past decade. The 2002 Raiders and the 80's and 90's Chargers were clearly ariel teams, but the Shanahan Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs have ALWAYS been run-first teams. The AFC West is known for the best RBs and TEs in the NFL.

Edit: I do think that the chances are very good that the AFC teams manage to combine for 8,000 total rushing yards, though. Denver's probably good for 2400 rushing yards, Kansas should be good for 2300, the Chargers should get 2100, and hopefully even the RAIDERS could pick up the 1200 remaining yards needed.

 

[Raider Nation]

I do think that the chances are very good that the AFC teams manage to combine for 8,000 total rushing yards, though. Denver's probably good for 2400 rushing yards, Kansas should be good for 2300, the Chargers should get 2100, and hopefully even the RAIDERS could pick up the 1200 remaining yards needed.

Jordan gets 1500 by himself.

 

[Chase Stuart]

No way in hell the AFC West quartet combines for 7000 yards. That's 1750 yards EACH.

Agreed. The top four RBs combined for 5,251 rushing yards last year. I'd say that number is probably slightly higher than what I'd project from the top four in 2006.

 

[SSOG]

Actually, looking back, here's the combined AFC West rushing yardage over the past 5 years.

2005: 8362 yards

2004: 8102 yards

2003: 8546 yards

2002: 8543 yards

2001: 7234 yards

That 4 straight years over 8000 yards rushing is really impressive (especially considering if the Raiders had managed just 1700 yards rushing, the West would be threatening 9,000). I wonder how many divisions have broken 8,000 even once.

Edit: To sing some more praises of the AFC West, best division in football... despite the fact that they all played 6 games (over a third of their schedule) against the best-running division in football, SD ranked 1st in run defense, Denver ranked 2nd, and KC ranked 7th. They combined to allow a measly 6331 total rushing yards. Take Oakland out, and the remaining 3 averaged 2331 yards rushing and 1427 rushing yards allowed. Of non-AFC West teams, only Atlanta and Seattle beat that average rushing, and only Pittsburgh beat that average rush defense. Crazy.

 

[MLBrandow]

Bell should have every opportunity to get close to 300 carries.

Rotation with Dayne down???

The rest of the homer analysis in that article, especially the statement surmizing that they could average 1750 yards each, just makes me want to laugh.Except it's not funny, it's stupid.

Say LJ rushed for 2,100 yards (ceiling).

Say LT hit 1750 yards (ceiling).

Say Jordan breaks 4.0ypc and hits 1200 yards (ceiling).

That's implying that Tatum Bell would rush for 1950 yards.

For a guy who can't break 3.0ypc when he gets the ball more than 12 times, I don't think this is a realistic assumption.

For a guy who's not even running with the first team, that is not a realistic assumption.

Say we're being egregiously optimistic.

LJ rushes for 2,250 yards.

LT hits 1800 yards.

Jordan finds his stride and hits 1350 yards.

Bell would still need 1500 yards.

And all of this is based on logic that both LT and LJ will break the single-season rushing record, with Bell managing to win the starting job and not split time with Dayne, who's been running with the first team all offseason, as well as Jordan magically playing behind a better OL.

Why am I even bothering to refute this article? It's just a bunch of crap.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I wonder how many divisions have broken 8,000 even once.

The first division I checked ('78 AFC East) produced 10,162 yards...from the Jets, Dolphins, Bills and Patriots (they helped out a little). I excluded the Colts, but if you count them you'd have 12,206.

 

[MLBrandow]

I wonder how many divisions have broken 8,000 even once.

The first division I checked ('78 AFC East) produced 10,162 yards...from the Jets, Dolphins, Bills and Patriots (they helped out a little). I excluded the Colts, but if you count them you'd have 12,206.

He is talking about leading rushers only.Four guys combining for 7,000 yards.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I wonder how many divisions have broken 8,000 even once.

The first division I checked ('78 AFC East) produced 10,162 yards...from the Jets, Dolphins, Bills and Patriots (they helped out a little). I excluded the Colts, but if you count them you'd have 12,206.

He is talking about leading rushers only.Four guys combining for 7,000 yards.

Actually, SSOG is talking about combined team yardage.

 

[SSOG]

I wonder how many divisions have broken 8,000 even once.

The first division I checked ('78 AFC East) produced 10,162 yards...from the Jets, Dolphins, Bills and Patriots (they helped out a little). I excluded the Colts, but if you count them you'd have 12,206.

I meant since the 4-division alignment. It'd be easier to get 4 teams over 8,000 yards in a 5-team alignment, since you could just pick the best 4 (just like it'd be easy to break 8,000 in a 16-team conference if you just picked the best 4).Still, that's a huge rushing total. Of course, back in '78 only 14% of the league failed to crack 2,000 rushing yards. Any way you could restrict your stats to... say... 1984 or later and see how many divisions have averaged over 2,000 yards rushing in the modern pass-happy era?

Edit: I'm not trying to be a jerk or pushy or anything, and if you don't want to you don't have to, I'm just obsessed with history and stats and whatnot, and find this fascinating. Just thought I'd clarify in case you took it the wrong way.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

No way in hell the AFC West quartet combines for 7000 yards. That's 1750 yards EACH.

Agreed. The top four RBs combined for 5,251 rushing yards last year. I'd say that number is probably slightly higher than what I'd project from the top four in 2006.

Really? Even with LJ getting 16 starts (barring injury) this year?

 

[SSOG]

Wow. I just checked, out of curiousity. Do you know how many yards last year's top-5 leading rushers combined for?

7006. In 2004, they rushed for 6576 (and not a single one broke the 1750 "average"). I don't know what's more absurd- that they proposed this ridiculous theory, or that they're actually going to TRACK ITS PROGRESS.

 

[Chase Stuart]

No way in hell the AFC West quartet combines for 7000 yards. That's 1750 yards EACH.

Agreed. The top four RBs combined for 5,251 rushing yards last year. I'd say that number is probably slightly higher than what I'd project from the top four in 2006.

Really? Even with LJ getting 16 starts (barring injury) this year?

Absolutely. I also wouldn't project LJ for 1750 yards.A quick and rough approximation:

10% chance of rushing for 2000 yards = 200

20% chance of rushing for 1750 yards = 350

30% chance of rushing for 1500 yards = 500

20% chance of rushing for 1250 yards = 250

10% chance of rushing for 1000 yards = 100

10% chance of rushing for 750 yards = 75

So you might project LJ with something like 1475 rushing yards this year. Obviously barring injury, that number goes up quite a bit, but would still be below 1750. The odds of LJ, LT, Bell and Jordan starting 64 games is probably about 25%.

Anyway, if I had to project total rushing yards for the four, it would be below 5251 just because of the discounting due to injury and/or loss of playing time (for Bell).

 

[jurb26]

 

[Doug Drinen]

I'm just obsessed with history and stats and whatnot, and find this fascinating.

What kind of weirdo would be fascinated by that kind of junk?Since 1978, here is a list of each division's average rushing yards from the top back on each team:

Year  Divison       AVG---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------2002 AFCWest       1442   Tomlinson-1683  Holmes-1615  Portis-1508  Garner-9621984 NFCWest       1442   Dickerson-2105  Riggs-1486  Tyler-1262  Rogers-9141997 NFCCentral    1353   Sanders-2053  Levens-1435  Smith-1266  Harris-1033  Dunn-9781983 NFCWest       1344   Dickerson-1808  Andrews-1567  Rogers-1144  Tyler-8562002 AFCEast       1342   Williams-1853  Henry-1438  Martin-1094  Smith-9822003 AFCWest       1334   Tomlinson-1645  Portis-1591  Holmes-1420  Wheatley-6781986 NFCWest       1333   Dickerson-1821  Mayes-1353  Riggs-1327  Craig-8301995 NFCEast       1321   Smith-1773  Allen-1309  Watters-1273  Hampton-1182  Hearst-10702005 AFCWest       1313   Johnson-1750  Tomlinson-1462  Jordan-1025  Anderson-10141979 AFCCentral    1260   Campbell-1697  Pruitt-1294  Harris-1186  Johnson-8652000 AFCCentral    1260   George-1509  Dillon-1435  Taylor-1399  Lewis-1364  Bettis-1341  Prentice-5122004 AFCSouth      1257   James-1548  Taylor-1224  Davis-1188  Brown-10672005 NFCEast       1246   Barber-1860  Portis-1516  Jones-993  Westbrook-6172004 AFCEast       1246   Martin-1697  Dillon-1635  McGahee-1128  Morris-5232000 NFCCentral    1227   Smith-1521  Stewart-1184  Green-1175  Dunn-1133  Allen-11202003 AFCSouth      1223   Taylor-1572  James-1259  George-1031  Davis-10311981 NFCEast       1218   Dorsett-1646  Montgomery-1402  Anderson-1376  Washington-916  Carpenter-7481979 NFCEast       1215   Anderson-1605  Montgomery-1512  Riggins-1153  Dorsett-1107  Taylor-7002005 AFCNorth      1200   Johnson-1458  Droughns-1232  Parker-1202  Lewis-9062003 AFCEast       1170   Williams-1372  Henry-1356  Martin-1308  Smith-6421998 AFCCentral    1168   George-1294  Taylor-1223  Bettis-1185  Dillon-1130  Holmes-10081985 NFCWest       1162   Riggs-1719  Dickerson-1234  Craig-1050  Wilson-6451998 AFCEast       1161   Faulk-1319  Martin-1287  Smith-1124  Edwards-1115  Abdul-Jabbar-9601997 AFCCentral    1158   Bettis-1665  George-1399  Dillon-1129  Means-823  Morris-7741992 AFCCentral    1157   Foster-1690  White-1226  Green-1170  Mack-5431985 NFCEast       1154   Morris-1336  Dorsett-1307  Rogers-1093  Jackson-1028  Mitchell-10062003 NFCSouth      1154   McAllister-1641  Davis-1444  Duckett-779  Pittman-7511981 NFCWest       1148   Rogers-1674  Andrews-1301  Tyler-1074  Patton-5431988 NFCWest       1140   Craig-1502  Bell-1212  Settle-1024  Hilliard-8231981 AFCCentral    1136   Campbell-1376  Pruitt-1103  Johnson-1077  Harris-9871992 NFCEast       1131   Smith-1713  Hampton-1141  Walker-1070  Byner-998  Johnson-7342001 AFCWest       1130   Holmes-1555  Alexander-1318  Tomlinson-1236  Garner-839  Davis-7011980 AFCCentral    1126   Campbell-1934  Pruitt-1034  Harris-789  Johnson-7472004 NFCEast       1116   Barber-1518  Portis-1315  Jones-819  Westbrook-8121998 AFCWest       1116   Davis-2008  Watters-1239  Kaufman-921  Means-883  Bennett-5272003 AFCNorth      1098   Lewis-2066  Johnson-957  Bettis-811  Green-5591995 NFCCentral    1096   Sanders-1500  Rhett-1207  Salaam-1074  Bennett-1067  Smith-6322001 AFCEast       1094   Martin-1513  Smith-1157  Rhodes-1104  Smith-968  Henry-7291994 NFCCentral    1089   Sanders-1883  Allen-1031  Rhett-1011  Tillman-899  Bennett-6231996 NFCEast       1086   Watters-1411  Allen-1353  Smith-1204  Hampton-827  Johnson-6341993 NFCEast       1078   Smith-1486  Hampton-1077  Brooks-1063  Moore-1018  Walker-7461997 AFCWest       1077   Davis-1750  Kaufman-1294  Brown-945  Warren-847  Hill-5502002 AFCNorth      1072   Lewis-1327  Dillon-1311  Green-887  Zereoue-7622002 NFCNorth      1070   Bennett-1296  Green-1240  Stewart-1021  Thomas-7211993 NFCWest       1067   Bettis-1429  Pegram-1185  Watters-950  Brown-7052003 NFCNorth      1064   Green-1883  Thomas-1024  Williams-745  Bryson-6061983 AFCCentral    1064   Campbell-1301  Pruitt-1184  Harris-1007  Johnson-7631978 AFCCentral    1064   Campbell-1450  Harris-1082  Pruitt-960  Johnson-7622004 NFCWest       1057   Alexander-1696  Smith-937  Barlow-822  Faulk-7741984 NFCCentral    1054   Payton-1684  Wilder-1544  Anderson-773  Sims-687  Ellis-5811985 NFCCentral    1053   Payton-1551  Wilder-1300  Nelson-893  Jones-886  Ivery-6362002 NFCEast       1052   Barber-1386  Staley-1029  Smith-975  Davis-8202001 NFCWest       1052   Faulk-1382  Williams-1245  Hearst-1206  Smith-760  Huntley-6651995 AFCEast       1049   Martin-1487  Faulk-1078  Thomas-1005  Parmalee-878  Murrell-7951981 NFCCentral    1047   Sims-1437  Payton-1222  Brown-1063  Ellis-860  Eckwood-6511983 NFCEast       1046   Riggins-1347  Dorsett-1321  Anderson-1270  Woolfolk-857  Oliver-4342000 AFCEast       1043   James-1709  Martin-1204  Smith-1139  Bryson-591  Faulk-5701994 AFCWest       1041   Warren-1545  Means-1350  Williams-983  Allen-709  Russell-6201998 NFCEast       1040   Smith-1332  Staley-1065  Brown-1063  Murrell-1042  Allen-7001995 AFCWest       1039   Warren-1346  Davis-1117  Williams-1114  Allen-890  Means-7301984 NFCEast       1037   Riggins-1239  Dorsett-1189  Anderson-1174  Carpenter-795  Montgomery-7892004 AFCNorth      1036   Johnson-1454  Lewis-1006  Bettis-941  Suggs-7441989 NFCWest       1036   Hilliard-1262  Bell-1137  Craig-1054  Settle-6891999 AFCEast       1033   James-1553  Martin-1464  Allen-896  Linton-695  Johnson-5582005 NFCSouth      1033   Dunn-1416  Williams-1178  Foster-879  Smith-6592000 NFCWest       1030   Faulk-1359  Garner-1142  Anderson-1024  Williams-1000  Biakabutuka-6272005 AFCSouth      1030   James-1506  Davis-976  Brown-851  Taylor-7871996 AFCEast       1027   Murrell-1249  Martin-1152  Abdul-Jabbar-1116  Thomas-1033  Faulk-5872003 NFCWest       1027   Alexander-1435  Barlow-1024  Shipp-830  Faulk-8181996 AFCCentral    1021   Bettis-1431  George-1368  Hearst-847  Morris-737  Stewart-7231980 NFCCentral    1021   Payton-1460  Sims-1303  Brown-912  Ivery-831  Bell-5991988 AFCEast       1013   Dickerson-1659  Stephens-1168  McNeil-944  Thomas-881  Hampton-4141997 AFCEast       1006   Martin-1160  Murrell-1086  Faulk-1054  Abdul-Jabbar-892  Smith-8401990 AFCWest       1000   Butts-1225  Humphrey-1202  Word-1015  Fenner-859  Jackson-6982002 AFCSouth       999   Taylor-1314  George-1165  James-989  Wells-5291978 AFCEast        999   Williams-1258  Miller-1060  Washington-956  Long-954  Cunningham-7682005 NFCWest        996   Alexander-1880  Jackson-1046  Gore-608  Shipp-4511987 NFCWest        995   White-1374  Mayes-917  Riggs-875  Craig-8151999 NFCEast        995   Davis-1405  Smith-1397  Staley-1273  Murrell-553  Montgomery-3481985 AFCEast        993   McNeil-1331  James-1227  Bell-883  McMillan-858  Nathan-6671992 NFCCentral     987   Sanders-1352  Allen-1201  Cobb-1171  Workman-631  Anderson-5821979 NFCWest        986   Muncie-1198  Tyler-1109  Andrews-1023  Hofer-6152002 NFCWest        984   Alexander-1175  Hearst-972  Faulk-953  Shipp-8342004 NFCSouth       982   Dunn-1106  McAllister-1074  Pittman-926  Goings-8211998 NFCWest        981   Anderson-1846  Hearst-1570  Lane-717  Smith-457  Henley-3131989 AFCWest        979   Okoye-1480  Humphrey-1151  Jackson-950  Butts-683  Warner-6311994 AFCEast        975   Faulk-1282  Thomas-1093  Johnson-931  Parmalee-868  Butts-7032000 NFCEast        975   Davis-1318  Smith-1203  Barber-1006  Pittman-719  McNabb-6292004 AFCWest        973   Tomlinson-1335  Droughns-1240  Holmes-892  Zereoue-4251978 NFCCentral     973   Payton-1395  Middleton-1116  Bussey-924  Foreman-749  Bell-6791999 AFCCentral     972   George-1304  Dillon-1200  Bettis-1091  Stewart-931  Rhett-852  Kirby-4522000 AFCWest        971   Anderson-1487  Watters-1242  Wheatley-1046  Richardson-697  Fletcher-3841978 NFCEast        970   Dorsett-1325  Montgomery-1220  Riggins-1014  Otis-664  Kotar-6251986 NFCEast        969   Morris-1516  Rogers-1203  Mitchell-800  Dorsett-748  Byars-5771989 NFCCentral     965   Sanders-1470  Anderson-1275  Fullwood-821  Walker-669  Tate-5891996 AFCWest        962   Davis-1538  Kaufman-874  Warren-855  Allen-830  Russell-7131990 NFCEast        962   Byner-1219  Cunningham-942  Smith-937  Johnson-926  Anderson-7841991 NFCEast        955   Smith-1563  Hampton-1059  Byner-1048  Johnson-666  Joseph-4402001 NFCEast        954   Davis-1432  Smith-1021  Barber-865  Pittman-846  Staley-6041989 AFCEast        950   Dickerson-1311  Thomas-1244  Stephens-833  Hector-702  Smith-6592004 NFCNorth       947   Green-1163  Jones-1133  Jones-948  Smith-5442002 NFCSouth       942   McAllister-1388  Dunn-927  Smith-733  Pittman-7181983 AFCEast        940   Cribbs-1131  Dickey-1122  Collins-1049  Franklin-746  McNeil-6541998 NFCCentral     940   Sanders-1491  Smith-1187  Dunn-1026  Bennett-611  Holmes-3861979 NFCCentral     940   Payton-1610  Bell-1263  Young-708  Bussey-625  Middleton-4951985 AFCWest        936   Allen-1759  Warner-1094  Winder-714  Heard-595  James-5161999 NFCWest        933   Faulk-1381  Garner-1229  Williams-884  Biakabutuka-718  Oxendine-4521988 NFCEast        929   Walker-1514  Morris-1083  Ferrell-924  Cunningham-624  Bryant-4981993 AFCEast        926   Thomas-1315  Russell-1088  Johnson-821  Potts-711  Higgs-6932001 NFCCentral     923   Green-1387  Thomas-1183  Stewart-685  Bennett-682  Alstott-6801983 AFCWest        921   Warner-1449  Allen-1014  Muncie-886  Winder-757  Jackson-4991980 NFCEast        921   Anderson-1352  Dorsett-1185  Montgomery-778  Jackson-708  Taylor-5801991 AFCEast        907   Thomas-1407  Russell-959  Higgs-905  Thomas-728  Dickerson-5362005 AFCEast        906   McGahee-1247  Brown-907  Martin-735  Dillon-7331994 NFCEast        903   Smith-1484  Hampton-1075  Moore-780  Ervins-650  Walker-5282001 AFCCentral     902   Dillon-1315  Bettis-1072  George-939  Mack-877  Allen-658  Jackson-5541984 AFCWest        902   Jackson-1179  Allen-1168  Winder-1153  Heard-684  Hughes-3271999 NFCCentral     891   Levens-1034  Smith-1015  Alstott-949  Enis-916  Hill-5421983 NFCCentral     888   Payton-1421  Sims-1040  Ellis-696  Nelson-642  Wilder-6401996 NFCCentral     886   Sanders-1553  Bennett-899  Harris-748  Smith-692  Rhett-5391981 AFCWest        875   Muncie-1144  Delaney-1121  King-828  Parros-749  Brown-5311985 AFCCentral     872   Mack-1104  Pollard-991  Brooks-929  Rozier-4621991 NFCCentral     869   Sanders-1548  Walker-825  Cobb-752  Anderson-747  Thompson-4711999 AFCWest        859   Watters-1210  Gary-1159  Wheatley-936  Bennett-627  Fazande-3651984 AFCEast        854   Bell-1100  McNeil-1070  James-790  McMillan-705  Bennett-6061986 NFCCentral     850   Payton-1333  Jones-903  Nelson-793  Wilder-704  Davis-5192003 NFCEast        850   Barber-1216  Hambrick-972  Westbrook-613  Canidate-6001991 AFCWest        847   Green-1037  Okoye-1031  Butts-834  Williams-741  Craig-5901990 AFCEast        847   Thomas-1297  Smith-831  Stephens-808  Dickerson-677  Thomas-6201978 AFCWest        843   VanEeghen-1080  Reed-1053  Mitchell-820  Smith-805  Perrin-4551988 AFCCentral     837   Woods-1066  Rozier-1002  Hoge-705  Byner-5761986 AFCCentral     831   Brooks-1087  Jackson-910  Mack-665  Rozier-6621981 AFCEast        831   Cribbs-1097  Collins-873  Nathan-782  Dickey-779  McNeil-6231988 AFCWest        830   Anderson-1119  Warner-1025  Allen-831  Dorsett-703  Okoye-4731992 AFCEast        829   Thomas-1487  Higgs-915  Baxter-698  Johnson-592  Vaughn-4511995 NFCWest        827   Heyward-1083  Bates-951  Moore-740  Loville-723  Bettis-6371990 NFCCentral     822   Sanders-1304  Anderson-1078  Walker-770  Anderson-646  Haddix-3111994 NFCWest        815   Bettis-1025  Watters-877  Heyward-779  Bates-5792005 NFCNorth       811   Jones-1335  Jones-664  Moore-662  Gado-5821980 AFCEast        808   Cribbs-1185  Ferguson-818  Dickey-800  Williams-671  Dierking-5671997 NFCEast        806   Watters-1110  Smith-1074  Allen-724  Way-698  McElroy-4241997 NFCWest        803   Hearst-1019  Anderson-1002  Lane-809  Phillips-633  Zellars-5521980 NFCWest        800   Andrews-1308  Bryant-807  Cooper-720  Rogers-3661993 AFCWest        798   Warren-1072  Bernstine-816  Allen-764  Butts-746  Robinson-5911990 AFCCentral     795   Brooks-1004  Hoge-772  White-702  Mack-7021989 AFCCentral     793   Brooks-1239  Worley-770  Metcalf-633  Highsmith-5311996 NFCWest        790   Johnson-1120  Anderson-1055  Phillips-632  Bates-584  Kirby-5591986 AFCWest        784   Warner-1481  Winder-789  Allen-759  Pruitt-448  Anderson-4421992 NFCWest        766   Gary-1125  Watters-1013  Dunbar-565  Broussard-3631992 AFCWest        762   Warren-1017  Butts-809  Dickerson-729  Green-648  Word-6071979 AFCEast        753   Gaines-905  Washington-884  Csonka-837  Brown-574  Cunningham-5631993 AFCCentral     750   Brown-1002  Thompson-763  Vardell-644  Green-5891994 AFCCentral     742   Hoard-890  Foster-851  White-757  Fenner-4681987 AFCCentral     740   Rozier-957  Mack-735  Jackson-696  Kinnebrew-5701984 AFCCentral     733   Pollard-851  Moriarty-785  Green-673  Kinnebrew-6231993 NFCCentral     712   Sanders-1115  Cobb-658  Thompson-654  Anderson-646  Graham-4881979 AFCWest        711   VanEeghen-818  Smith-775  McKnight-755  Williams-752  Armstrong-4531995 AFCCentral     699   Thomas-947  Pegram-813  Green-661  Hoard-547  Stewart-5251991 AFCCentral     697   Green-731  Mack-726  Pinkett-720  Hoge-6101987 AFCWest        697   Warner-985  Allen-754  Winder-741  Okoye-660  Adams-3431987 NFCEast        690   Walker-891  Mitchell-781  Morris-658  Rogers-613  Cunningham-5051989 NFCEast        685   Anderson-1023  Riggs-834  Cunningham-621  Ferrell-502  Palmer-4461986 AFCEast        671   McNeil-856  Hampton-830  Riddick-632  McMillan-609  James-4271980 AFCWest        660   VanEeghen-838  McKnight-693  Muncie-659  Jodat-632  Jensen-4761978 NFCWest        648   Bean-707  Bryant-658  Galbreath-635  Simpson-5931990 NFCWest        636   Gary-808  Rozier-675  Heyward-599  Carter-4601987 AFCEast        624   Dickerson-1011  Stradford-619  McNeil-530  Harmon-485  Collins-4741982 AFCEast        611   McNeil-786  Franklin-701  Cribbs-633  Collins-632  McMillan-3051988 NFCCentral     598   Anderson-1106  James-552  Fullwood-483  Tate-467  Nelson-3801982 AFCCentral     570   Johnson-622  Harris-604  Campbell-538  Pruitt-5161982 NFCEast        568   Dorsett-745  Anderson-587  Riggins-553  Montgomery-515  Woolfolk-4391991 NFCWest        548   Delpino-688  Henderson-561  McAfee-494  Broussard-4491982 NFCCentral     505   Sims-639  Payton-596  Brown-515  Ivery-453  Wilder-3241987 NFCCentral     494   Nelson-642  Anderson-586  Wilder-488  Davis-413  Jones-3421982 NFCWest        488   Andrews-573  Tyler-564  Rogers-535  Moore-2811982 AFCWest        439   Allen-697  Muncie-569  Delaney-380  Willhite-347  Smith-202

 

[MLBrandow]

You tack on receiving yardage to the 02 West team and you get about 2000 yards average.

That's pretty sick.

 

[The Jerk]

From the Data Dominator, the median rushing yards per team per season from 2002-2005 is around 1800 yards, or 7200 yards per division on average. LINK to Data Dominator query

I'll eventually look through and find each division total when I have more time.

 

[The Jerk]

So to finally answer the question, yes, there is one division in the past four years that has rushed cumulatively for more than 8000 yards OTHER THAN the AFC West. It is the NFC North in 2003.

Here are the top 10 division rushing totals from 2002-2005 (disclaimer: totals manually calculated from Data Dominator printout, so errors are very possible):

1 AFC West 2003 85222 AFC West 2002 84483 AFC West 2005 83634 AFC West 2004 80985 NFC North 2003 80326 AFC North 2004 78327 AFC North 2003 78058 NFC South 2005 77699 NFC East 2002 771810 NFC South 2003 7697Random facts I learned from doing this calculation:1. The Arizona Cardinals in 2005 had the lowest of the 128 teams in this span with 1135 team rushing yards.

2. The 2005 NFC North owns 3 of the worst 15 performances over the past 4 years.

3. Detroit owns 3 of the worst 15 performances by itself (2002, 2004, 2005).

4. Oakland owns 2 of the worst 9 performances during the past two seasons.

Does this mean anything fantasy-wise?

1. As previously stated, the AFC West is the best rushing division in football, and it's not really close.

2. Arizona almost certainly will regress toward the mean with better rushing, worse passing, and fewer field goals in 2006.

3. Be careful drafting any RBs in the NFC North (except Chicago) and especially Detroit.

4. Art Shell needs to overcome two very bad years for LaMont Jordan to have a huge season in 2006.

Information for the next rushing leads to champions thread...

34 of the 48 playoff teams (71%) during the 2002-2005 span finished in the top half of the 128 season totals.

The lowest finish of any playoff team was the 2003 St. Louis Rams (113 of 128).

BUT... two Super Bowl champions came had team rushing yards in the bottom 7 of the 48 playoff teams:

The 2003 Patriots had the 96th best total.

The 2002 Bucs had the 102nd best total.

 

[Raider Nation]

So to finally answer the question, yes, there is one division in the past four years that has rushed cumulatively for more than 8000 yards OTHER THAN the AFC West. It is the NFC North in 2003.

Here are the top 10 division rushing totals from 2002-2005 (disclaimer: totals manually calculated from Data Dominator printout, so errors are very possible):

1 AFC West 2003 85222 AFC West 2002 84483 AFC West 2005 83634 AFC West 2004 80985 NFC North 2003 80326 AFC North 2004 78327 AFC North 2003 78058 NFC South 2005 77699 NFC East 2002 771810 NFC South 2003 7697Random facts I learned from doing this calculation:1. The Arizona Cardinals in 2005 had the lowest of the 128 teams in this span with 1135 team rushing yards.

2. The 2005 NFC North owns 3 of the worst 15 performances over the past 4 years.

3. Detroit owns 3 of the worst 15 performances by itself (2002, 2004, 2005).

4. Oakland owns 2 of the worst 9 performances during the past two seasons.

Does this mean anything fantasy-wise?

1. As previously stated, the AFC West is the best rushing division in football, and it's not really close.

2. Arizona almost certainly will regress toward the mean with better rushing, worse passing, and fewer field goals in 2006.

3. Be careful drafting any RBs in the NFC North (except Chicago) and especially Detroit.

4. Art Shell needs to overcome two very bad years for LaMont Jordan to have a huge season in 2006.

Information for the next rushing leads to champions thread...

34 of the 48 playoff teams (71%) during the 2002-2005 span finished in the top half of the 128 season totals.

The lowest finish of any playoff team was the 2003 St. Louis Rams (113 of 128).

BUT... two Super Bowl champions came had team rushing yards in the bottom 7 of the 48 playoff teams:

The 2003 Patriots had the 96th best total.

The 2002 Bucs had the 102nd best total.

Nice work.

 

[SSOG]

I'm just obsessed with history and stats and whatnot, and find this fascinating.

What kind of weirdo would be fascinated by that kind of junk?Since 1978, here is a list of each division's average rushing yards from the top back on each team:

Year Divison AVG---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------2002 AFCWest 1442 Tomlinson-1683 Holmes-1615 Portis-1508 Garner-9621984 NFCWest 1442 Dickerson-2105 Riggs-1486 Tyler-1262 Rogers-9141997 NFCCentral 1353 Sanders-2053 Levens-1435 Smith-1266 Harris-1033 Dunn-9781983 NFCWest 1344 Dickerson-1808 Andrews-1567 Rogers-1144 Tyler-8562002 AFCEast 1342 Williams-1853 Henry-1438 Martin-1094 Smith-9822003 AFCWest 1334 Tomlinson-1645 Portis-1591 Holmes-1420 Wheatley-6781986 NFCWest 1333 Dickerson-1821 Mayes-1353 Riggs-1327 Craig-8301995 NFCEast 1321 Smith-1773 Allen-1309 Watters-1273 Hampton-1182 Hearst-10702005 AFCWest 1313 Johnson-1750 Tomlinson-1462 Jordan-1025 Anderson-10141979 AFCCentral 1260 Campbell-1697 Pruitt-1294 Harris-1186 Johnson-865

So to finally answer the question, yes, there is one division in the past four years that has rushed cumulatively for more than 8000 yards OTHER THAN the AFC West. It is the NFC North in 2003.

Here are the top 10 division rushing totals from 2002-2005 (disclaimer: totals manually calculated from Data Dominator printout, so errors are very possible):

1 AFC West 2003 85222 AFC West 2002 84483 AFC West 2005 83634 AFC West 2004 80985 NFC North 2003 80326 AFC North 2004 78327 AFC North 2003 78058 NFC South 2005 77699 NFC East 2002 771810 NFC South 2003 7697Random facts I learned from doing this calculation:1. The Arizona Cardinals in 2005 had the lowest of the 128 teams in this span with 1135 team rushing yards.

2. The 2005 NFC North owns 3 of the worst 15 performances over the past 4 years.

3. Detroit owns 3 of the worst 15 performances by itself (2002, 2004, 2005).

4. Oakland owns 2 of the worst 9 performances during the past two seasons.

Does this mean anything fantasy-wise?

1. As previously stated, the AFC West is the best rushing division in football, and it's not really close.

2. Arizona almost certainly will regress toward the mean with better rushing, worse passing, and fewer field goals in 2006.

3. Be careful drafting any RBs in the NFC North (except Chicago) and especially Detroit.

4. Art Shell needs to overcome two very bad years for LaMont Jordan to have a huge season in 2006.

Information for the next rushing leads to champions thread...

34 of the 48 playoff teams (71%) during the 2002-2005 span finished in the top half of the 128 season totals.

The lowest finish of any playoff team was the 2003 St. Louis Rams (113 of 128).

BUT... two Super Bowl champions came had team rushing yards in the bottom 7 of the 48 playoff teams:

The 2003 Patriots had the 96th best total.

The 2002 Bucs had the 102nd best total.

Great work, and it's cool to know that the AFC West's recent rushing successes really are as historically relevant as I thought. In the modern pass-first era, only the post-expansion AFC West (2002, 2003, 2005) and Mid-80's NFC West (1983, 1984, 1986) managed to get 3 teams in the top 10 in terms of leading rushers.Also, it's pretty impressive that 2 of the 9 worst performances (out of 128) belonged to Oakland, yet the AFC West still ruled all. I know it's all homerism, but this division is really amazing.

 

[softball]

Actually, looking back, here's the combined AFC West rushing yardage over the past 5 years.

2005: 8362 yards

2004: 8102 yards

2003: 8546 yards

2002: 8543 yards

2001: 7234 yards

That 4 straight years over 8000 yards rushing is really impressive (especially considering if the Raiders had managed just 1700 yards rushing, the West would be threatening 9,000). I wonder how many divisions have broken 8,000 even once.

Edit: To sing some more praises of the AFC West, best division in football... despite the fact that they all played 6 games (over a third of their schedule) against the best-running division in football, SD ranked 1st in run defense, Denver ranked 2nd, and KC ranked 7th. They combined to allow a measly 6331 total rushing yards. Take Oakland out, and the remaining 3 averaged 2331 yards rushing and 1427 rushing yards allowed. Of non-AFC West teams, only Atlanta and Seattle beat that average rushing, and only Pittsburgh beat that average rush defense. Crazy.

Not picking on you SSOG, but this is seriously flawed reporting on the AFC West Rushing Defense because:RECEIVING:

Team G Rec Yards TDs FFPTS, PTs per games

1. San Francisco 49ers 16 231 3,238 18 662.8 41.4

2. New England Patriots16 174 2,744 20 568.4 35.5

3. St. Louis Rams 16 192 2,616 18 561.6 35.1

4. New York Giants 16 193 2,773 15 560.3 35.0

5. Houston Texans 16 181 2,655 18 554.5 34.7

6. Denver Broncos 16 208 2,662 12 546.2 34.1

7. Tennessee Titans 16 168 2,307 24 542.7 33.9

8. San Diego Chargers 16 206 2,549 13 538.9 33.7

9. Seattle Seahawks 16 195 2,447 14 523.7 32.7

10. Arizona Cardinals 16 194 2,374 15 521.4 32.6

11. Miami Dolphins 16 175 2,421 15 507.1 31.7

12. Cincinnati Bengals 16 183 2,508 11 499.8 31.2

13. Kansas City Chiefs 16 171 2,370 13 486.0 30.4

All three you state had good rushing D's had poor passing D's so why run?

I believe they COULD rush for 7k yards in 2006. There are 4 very good RBs in the division(Denver counted as 1, who that 1 is? I have no idea!)

 

[Evilgrin 72]

No way in hell the AFC West quartet combines for 7000 yards. That's 1750 yards EACH.

Agreed. The top four RBs combined for 5,251 rushing yards last year. I'd say that number is probably slightly higher than what I'd project from the top four in 2006.

Really? Even with LJ getting 16 starts (barring injury) this year?

Absolutely. I also wouldn't project LJ for 1750 yards.A quick and rough approximation:

10% chance of rushing for 2000 yards = 200

20% chance of rushing for 1750 yards = 350

30% chance of rushing for 1500 yards = 500

20% chance of rushing for 1250 yards = 250

10% chance of rushing for 1000 yards = 100

10% chance of rushing for 750 yards = 75

So you might project LJ with something like 1475 rushing yards this year. Obviously barring injury, that number goes up quite a bit, but would still be below 1750. The odds of LJ, LT, Bell and Jordan starting 64 games is probably about 25%.

Anyway, if I had to project total rushing yards for the four, it would be below 5251 just because of the discounting due to injury and/or loss of playing time (for Bell).

I wasn't referring to the 7,000, just the 5,251. With Denver using an RBBC last year as well, I would imagine that their leading rusher this year would likely be in the same neighborhood yardage-wise than their leading rusher last year. With Jordan and Tomlinson relatively static, I would think Johnson starting all 16 games would make the foursome a pretty good bet to exceed the 5,251 posted last year, though I agree 7,000 is a pipe dream.

 

[Q-Bert]

Great work, and it's cool to know that the AFC West's recent rushing successes really are as historically relevant as I thought. In the modern pass-first era, only the post-expansion AFC West (2002, 2003, 2005) and Eric Dickerson (1983, 1984, 1986) managed to get 3 teams in the top 10 in terms of leading rushers.

Also, it's pretty impressive that 2 of the 9 worst performances (out of 128) belonged to Oakland, yet the AFC West still ruled all. I know it's all homerism, but this division is really amazing.

Fixed