What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Frank Gore (1 Viewer)

bostonfred

bostonfred

Footballguy
Frank Gore rushed for 1695 of San Francisco's 2172 rush yards in 2006.

In 2005, the team as a whole produced just 1689.

In 2004, the team produced just 1449.

Some of this can be accounted for by Frank Gore's emergence as the starter. How much can be accounted for by Norv Turner's arrival?

Consider this:

LaMont Jordan 2005: 1025 yards in 14 games

LaMont Jordan 2006: 434 yards in 10 games

On the other hand,

Oakland Raiders 2004 (Turner): 328 rushes, 1295 yards. Leading rusher is Amos Zereoue with 425 yards.

Oakland Raiders 2004 (Turner): 361 rushes, 1369 yards. Leading rusher is Jordan with 1025 yards.

Oakland Raiders 2004 (Shell): 394 rushes, 1519 yards. Leading rusher is Justin Fargas with 659 yards.

Shell certainly doesn't look like an offensive genius. And yet the Raiders running game played at about the same pace all three years.

So, was it Norv, or was it Gore? And what will the impact be now that Norv's gone?

 
One thing that was going to happen with or without Turner is that Gore's YPC was going to take a serious drop, just from regression to the mean. He averaged 5.4 ypc; only one back in history (Terrell Davis) has ever averaged that much two years in a row, and he was on an offensive juggernaut, not a struggling team. All of the backs who repeated 5.0+ ypc two years in a row (and it's not many) were on good offensive teams. So, the production will be scaled back naturally (think Jamal Lewis 2003-2004).

The impact specifically of Turner leaving won't be known until his replacement is hired. Most replacements will be less likely to feed one player as much as Turner did, but on the other hand, it's not like there's talent anywhere else on the Niners. Gore will still get a lot of touches.

 
CalBear said:
One thing that was going to happen with or without Turner is that Gore's YPC was going to take a serious drop, just from regression to the mean. He averaged 5.4 ypc; only one back in history (Terrell Davis) has ever averaged that much two years in a row, and he was on an offensive juggernaut, not a struggling team. All of the backs who repeated 5.0+ ypc two years in a row (and it's not many) were on good offensive teams. So, the production will be scaled back naturally (think Jamal Lewis 2003-2004). The impact specifically of Turner leaving won't be known until his replacement is hired. Most replacements will be less likely to feed one player as much as Turner did, but on the other hand, it's not like there's talent anywhere else on the Niners. Gore will still get a lot of touches.
Click to expand...
:thumbup: I'm one of the people that thinks Gore will fall back to earth this year and you have summed up my thoughts exactly. He will be good, not great.
 
CalBear said:
One thing that was going to happen with or without Turner is that Gore's YPC was going to take a serious drop, just from regression to the mean. He averaged 5.4 ypc; only one back in history (Terrell Davis) has ever averaged that much two years in a row, and he was on an offensive juggernaut, not a struggling team. All of the backs who repeated 5.0+ ypc two years in a row (and it's not many) were on good offensive teams. So, the production will be scaled back naturally (think Jamal Lewis 2003-2004).
Click to expand...
I actually agree, it's always tough to duplicate that type of a season. As Smith and some of the WR develop, I imagine there will be an increased reliance on the passing game regardless of who the OC is.
 
Terrell Davis did what?

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/DaviTe00.htm

+--------------------------+-------------------------+ | Rushing | Receiving |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 1995 den | 14 | 237 1117 4.7 7 | 49 367 7.5 1 || 1996 den | 16 | 345 1538 4.5 13 | 36 310 8.6 2 || 1997 den | 15 | 369 1750 4.7 15 | 42 287 6.8 0 || 1998 den | 16 | 392 2008 5.1 21 | 25 217 8.7 2 || 1999 den | 4 | 67 211 3.1 2 | 3 26 8.7 0 || 2000 den | 5 | 78 282 3.6 2 | 2 4 2.0 0 || 2001 den | 11 | 167 701 4.2 0 | 12 69 5.8 0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| TOTAL | 81 | 1655 7607 4.6 60 | 169 1280 7.6 5 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+If you area adding two years (that are back to back) together and getting over 5.4 combined, you may be discussing Barry Sanders. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/SandBa00.htm

Or Jim Brown.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/BrowJi00.htm

 
Last edited by a moderator:
bostonfred said:
Frank Gore rushed for 1695 of San Francisco's 2172 rush yards in 2006. In 2005, the team as a whole produced just 1689. In 2004, the team produced just 1449. Some of this can be accounted for by Frank Gore's emergence as the starter. How much can be accounted for by Norv Turner's arrival? Consider this: LaMont Jordan 2005: 1025 yards in 14 gamesLaMont Jordan 2006: 434 yards in 10 gamesOn the other hand, Oakland Raiders 2004 (Turner): 328 rushes, 1295 yards. Leading rusher is Amos Zereoue with 425 yards. Oakland Raiders 2004 (Turner): 361 rushes, 1369 yards. Leading rusher is Jordan with 1025 yards. Oakland Raiders 2004 (Shell): 394 rushes, 1519 yards. Leading rusher is Justin Fargas with 659 yards.Shell certainly doesn't look like an offensive genius. And yet the Raiders running game played at about the same pace all three years. So, was it Norv, or was it Gore? And what will the impact be now that Norv's gone?
Click to expand...
Impact...Gore will be on a team that finishes over .500.
 
thecatch said:
CalBear said:
One thing that was going to happen with or without Turner is that Gore's YPC was going to take a serious drop, just from regression to the mean. He averaged 5.4 ypc; only one back in history (Terrell Davis) has ever averaged that much two years in a row, and he was on an offensive juggernaut, not a struggling team. All of the backs who repeated 5.0+ ypc two years in a row (and it's not many) were on good offensive teams. So, the production will be scaled back naturally (think Jamal Lewis 2003-2004).
Click to expand...
I actually agree, it's always tough to duplicate that type of a season. As Smith and some of the WR develop, I imagine there will be an increased reliance on the passing game regardless of who the OC is.
Click to expand...
I'm confused.....If a team has a good passing game, the rb usually does well because the def has to respect the pass. But in the niners case, the passing game sucked, the def stacked 8 or more guys in the box and gore still kicked ###. And you are saying the passing game will improve but gore's numbers will decrease?? I don't think so....
 
derek19 said:
thecatch said:
CalBear said:
One thing that was going to happen with or without Turner is that Gore's YPC was going to take a serious drop, just from regression to the mean. He averaged 5.4 ypc; only one back in history (Terrell Davis) has ever averaged that much two years in a row, and he was on an offensive juggernaut, not a struggling team. All of the backs who repeated 5.0+ ypc two years in a row (and it's not many) were on good offensive teams. So, the production will be scaled back naturally (think Jamal Lewis 2003-2004).
Click to expand...
I actually agree, it's always tough to duplicate that type of a season. As Smith and some of the WR develop, I imagine there will be an increased reliance on the passing game regardless of who the OC is.
Click to expand...
I'm confused.....If a team has a good passing game, the rb usually does well because the def has to respect the pass. But in the niners case, the passing game sucked, the def stacked 8 or more guys in the box and gore still kicked ###. And you are saying the passing game will improve but gore's numbers will decrease?? I don't think so....
Click to expand...
Like was mentioned before, I have a hard time seeing Gore's YPC going UP next year. I believe either the passing game will improve, Gore will maintain a great YPC but have fewer touches, or the passing game will regress and Gore will shoulder even more of the load, maybe putting up similar yards on more carries (sort of like what Larry Johnson did this year). I still think Gore can put up 1500+ and will probably score more TDs next year
 
Good thread topic BF,

Before Turner was leaving SF I felt Gore was a timebomb waiting to go off in a bad way. He has had countless injuries to this point...he might be 23 but internally he is probably closer to 30. The shelf life IMO was/is going to be short, now you throw a new OC in the mix in SF and he should fall back down toearth. However his OL is truly underrated and Allen is coming back I believe at Guard.

I think most dynasty owners should see what they can get for Gore as his stock will not likely be any higher than it is right now...OK maybe 2 weeks ago it was higher but you can still get pretty good value for him.

 
I agree with the above that Gore may take a step back in the YPC area, but the guy runs hard, has a quality O-line in front of him (from a run-blocking standpoint, anyway) and should get more opportunity to score if the offense improves in the other areas. Lets not forget, his fumbling porblems early in the season caused SF to use another back at the goalline. His name was Michael Robinson, and save for one game, he was not very effective in that area.

Improvement in the passing game, 3rd down offense and red zone offense will have a greater impact on Gore's 2007 production than the presence/departure of Norv Turner. All things being equal, I would feel better if Turner had stayed, but I continue to be optimistic about Gore's '07 production.

*Gore owner*

 
Chase Stuart said:
CalBear said:
BigSteelThrill said:
If you area adding two years (that are back to back) together and getting over 5.4 combined, you may be discussing Barry Sanders.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/SandBa00.htm
Click to expand...
Hmm, thanks for the correction; I'm not sure what was wrong with my search criteria that caused them to spit out TD. In any case, 5.4 ypc has to be viewed as a singular event.
Click to expand...
Maybe you meant Clinton Portis?
Click to expand...
Winner!And it just about snuffs out the TDavis debates. Look at what CP has done post-Denver.

 
imo, same as when LJ got a new oc. too many people were overreacting and saying he would suck or just be decent. then he was great. same situation here imo.

 
As a dynasty Gore owner, I can't help but think of myself as Ed Norton in Am X during the shower scene.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I dont pay close attention to the 49ers so I may be wrong, but if I recall correctly weren't most of Gore's long gains after breaking some tackles?

Also, someone else said this but the 49ers dont have too terrible of a run blocking scheme.

Just thinking, correct me if Im wrong.

:lmao:

 
Mr. Pink said:
I agree with the above that Gore may take a step back in the YPC area, but the guy runs hard, has a quality O-line in front of him (from a run-blocking standpoint, anyway) and should get more opportunity to score if the offense improves in the other areas. Lets not forget, his fumbling porblems early in the season caused SF to use another back at the goalline. His name was Michael Robinson, and save for one game, he was not very effective in that area.

Improvement in the passing game, 3rd down offense and red zone offense will have a greater impact on Gore's 2007 production than the presence/departure of Norv Turner. All things being equal, I would feel better if Turner had stayed, but I continue to be optimistic about Gore's '07 production.

*Gore owner*
Click to expand...
True, but Robinson was learning a new position all year. I think that it likely that they give Robinson some more short yardage carries this year and he does well enough at it to steal some TDs from Gore. Depends on the OC though, obviously.
 
No matter what Gore did last year, there will always be some that say they will never have him on their squad. If he hurts a pinky, they'll be the first to tell you he was injury-prone.

Gore was the focal point of an up-and-coming offense with no receiving threats to speak of. He exceeded expectations. Will he regress towards the mean? Sure. But 75% of what he did last year is still better than most other RBs.

Gore had about 100 yards less rushing than LJ on 100 less carries. He had more receiving yards than LJ. Yet LJ is a god and Gore is a bum (to some).

Expect less yards but more TDs in 2007.

49ers are expected to keep the same offensive scheme in place.

Injuries happen.

Westbrook came back from the Lisfranc sprain (and other problems).

Addai doesn't show effects from his ACL and MCL tears.

Tomlinson's groin was fine last year.

Alexander's full recovery is not fully known.

Plenty of question marks abound every year for top 10 hopefuls.

People look for reasons to not like certain players. I'm guilty of it too.

So be it.

 
What have the 49'ers said about what they'll do with their offense, and who they'll hire to run it, after Norv's departure?

 
redman said:
What have the 49'ers said about what they'll do with their offense, and who they'll hire to run it, after Norv's departure?
Click to expand...
Bengals quarterbacks coach Ken Zampese, a hot prospect as an NFL offensive coordinator, is not going to San Francisco. The 49ers are looking to replace coordinator Norv Turner, now San Diego’s head coach.Zampese is under contract, and word around the Bengals organization is head coach Marvin Lewis would not let Zampese out of his deal because of the timing. It is simply too late in the process of getting ready for the 2007 season.

Zampese interviewed in January for the coordinator job with the Carolina Panthers that went to Jeff Davidson, most recently a Romeo Crennel assistant in Cleveland.

Zampese pulled himself from consideration in Miami because he would not have play-calling duties under new coach Cam Cameron.

Zampese was offered the job as Jets coordinator under Eric Mangini after the 2005 season but turned that offer down.

Zampese played major roles in helping Jon Kitna have his best NFL season in 2003 and the development of Carson Palmer.

Source: 49ersNews.com

Also, here is a post from a 9er forum.

http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/thread.php?num=51085

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Anarchy99
Will We See A New Team Rushing Record This Year?
Replies
18
Views
1K
Bracie Smathers
Bracie Smathers
A
3 Round Mock Draft (yes another one)
Replies
19
Views
2K
Interseptopus
I
T
2018 NFL Offseason Predictions
Replies
11
Views
2K
Grahamburn
Grahamburn

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Back
Top