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Free Money Being Given Away - Vegas Bailout Campaign (1 Viewer)

bigmiiiiike

Footballguy
So I'm browsing through the various prop bets available for this week on a particular gambling website and I see an over/under for total (rush and rec) yards for Jamaal Charles this week, set at 75.5, with both sides of the bet at -115. I decide that this must be a free money promotion put on by this website and Vegas, as there is no person in their right mind who would look at that line and say "yep, Charles is going to have less than 75 yards this week." The only explanation is that Vegas is giving money away as some sort of Vegas Bailout Campaign. The ONLY way this doesn't hit is if Jamaal gets injured during the game.

I'm looking for someone to slap me back into reality to think this is not a gold mine. The Chiefs have no legitimate RB behind him to steal carries. If the game is close or the Chiefs get a big lead, he'll get carries, which should make it easy to clear 75.5 yards. If the Chiefs get blown out, he'll get garbage dump passes which should still have him clear the total easily. The Jags are BAD against the speedier backs, and if Charles gets a THIRD of what Chris Johnson got last week, he clears the number. Footballguys projects him for 105 total yards (70 rush, 35 rec). Someone tell me I'm not dreaming...

 
If I had to bet I'd take the over, but it's far from a lock. Charles has never been asked to carry a full load - and while I'd guess that he's capable of doing so we don't know that he is. The Chiefs o-line is a mess and the Jags are better against the run thatn they are against the pass (last week's game notwithstanding). You can't count on dump off passes ganing that much yardage.

If you feel its a good bet, go for it bcause I think its very possible that you could win. I just don't see it as "free money" - Vegas isn't stupid.

 
You realize he plays for the Chiefs right? Let's look at Larry Johnson's total yards per game so far this year.

Week 1 - 26 Yards (20 rush, 6 rec)

Week 2 - 100 Yards (78 rush, 22 rec)

Week 3 - 38 Yards (38 rush)

Week 4 - 54 Yards (53 rush, 1 rec)

Week 5 - 46 Yards (37 rush, 9 rec)

Week 6 - 87 Yards (83 rush, 4 rec)

Week 7 - 56 Yards (49 rush, 7 rec)

So if Charles isn't good enough to supplant LJ as the starter and LJ has surpassed 75.5 yards only two times this year what makes you think that Charles is going to do so other than hype from fantasy football experts? This is coming from a Chiefs fan who has been pulling for Charles to get more carries all season. The sad truth is the line is terrible and I expect to see a split between Charles and Savage with a bit of Kolby Smith mixed in if he is activated from the PUP which I expect him to be.

 
You realize he plays for the Chiefs right? Let's look at Larry Johnson's total yards per game so far this year.Week 1 - 26 Yards (20 rush, 6 rec)Week 2 - 100 Yards (78 rush, 22 rec)Week 3 - 38 Yards (38 rush)Week 4 - 54 Yards (53 rush, 1 rec)Week 5 - 46 Yards (37 rush, 9 rec)Week 6 - 87 Yards (83 rush, 4 rec)Week 7 - 56 Yards (49 rush, 7 rec)So if Charles isn't good enough to supplant LJ as the starter and LJ has surpassed 75.5 yards only two times this year what makes you think that Charles is going to do so other than hype from fantasy football experts? This is coming from a Chiefs fan who has been pulling for Charles to get more carries all season. The sad truth is the line is terrible and I expect to see a split between Charles and Savage with a bit of Kolby Smith mixed in if he is activated from the PUP which I expect him to be.
:thumbup: My thoughts exactly.
 
yea, i agree with the doubters (i.e. the people who see the line as a solid one and not a gift of free money)

the OP still might win, but this is clearly far from a lock (even against the Jags)

 
You realize he plays for the Chiefs right? Let's look at Larry Johnson's total yards per game so far this year.
And on the other hand, they are playing JAX...
The Jaguars were humiliated by Chris Johnson (24/228/2 rushing) and the Titans (49/305/2 rushing as a team) last week. They've handed over 503 rushing yards in the last four weeks (three games).
 
yeah dude, that is no where near a lock. Matter of fact, if I looked through all the props, I can probably point out atleast 10 that are a better play, and can also guarantee you none of those will be a slam dunk. Moral of the story, you don't make friends with salad...

 
A lock? Are you an idiot?

You've clearly never watched Jamaal Charles play. Hes not as good as people make it out to be.

 
I don't buy the "if LJ only cleared 75 yards twice what makes you think JC can do it if he couldn't take down LJ as the starter" arguments, for a few reasons.

1) I'm not claiming that Charles is better than LJ. Not necessarily better in skills, better for the Chiefs as a starter week-to-week, etc. Only that he'll clear 75 yards THIS week. To me this is analogous to Jerome Harrison and Jamal Lewis. Lewis is the starter, probably the better back for Cleveland this season. But look what Harrison did with his two starts (85 total yards v. Ravens, 152 total yards v. Bengals).

2) He's playing the Jags.

I appreciate the contrarian arguments, especially the one about the Chiefs' projected workload, but I'm really just not seeing how he doesn't get there.

 
You realize he plays for the Chiefs right? Let's look at Larry Johnson's total yards per game so far this year.
And on the other hand, they are playing JAX...
The Jaguars were humiliated by Chris Johnson (24/228/2 rushing) and the Titans (49/305/2 rushing as a team) last week. They've handed over 503 rushing yards in the last four weeks (three games).
Johnson had two carries for 160 yards. Those numbers are a little deceiving. He didn't run all over them all day.
 
You realize he plays for the Chiefs right? Let's look at Larry Johnson's total yards per game so far this year.Week 1 - 26 Yards (20 rush, 6 rec)Week 2 - 100 Yards (78 rush, 22 rec)Week 3 - 38 Yards (38 rush)Week 4 - 54 Yards (53 rush, 1 rec)Week 5 - 46 Yards (37 rush, 9 rec)Week 6 - 87 Yards (83 rush, 4 rec)Week 7 - 56 Yards (49 rush, 7 rec)So if Charles isn't good enough to supplant LJ as the starter and LJ has surpassed 75.5 yards only two times this year what makes you think that Charles is going to do so other than hype from fantasy football experts? This is coming from a Chiefs fan who has been pulling for Charles to get more carries all season. The sad truth is the line is terrible and I expect to see a split between Charles and Savage with a bit of Kolby Smith mixed in if he is activated from the PUP which I expect him to be.
:shock:
 
I don't buy the "if LJ only cleared 75 yards twice what makes you think JC can do it if he couldn't take down LJ as the starter" arguments, for a few reasons.1) I'm not claiming that Charles is better than LJ. Not necessarily better in skills, better for the Chiefs as a starter week-to-week, etc. Only that he'll clear 75 yards THIS week. To me this is analogous to Jerome Harrison and Jamal Lewis. Lewis is the starter, probably the better back for Cleveland this season. But look what Harrison did with his two starts (85 total yards v. Ravens, 152 total yards v. Bengals). 2) He's playing the Jags. I appreciate the contrarian arguments, especially the one about the Chiefs' projected workload, but I'm really just not seeing how he doesn't get there.
bet the farm on it then bro!
 
There may not be a running back in the league who is likely to rush for 75 yards behind the Chiefs' offensive line. Even against the Jaguars.

Charles may have to get 30+ receiving yards in order to reach 75 total.

It may happen; it may not. I think 75 yards from scrimmage is right around the line I'd set myself.

 
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You realize he plays for the Chiefs right? Let's look at Larry Johnson's total yards per game so far this year.Week 1 - 26 Yards (20 rush, 6 rec)Week 2 - 100 Yards (78 rush, 22 rec)Week 3 - 38 Yards (38 rush)Week 4 - 54 Yards (53 rush, 1 rec)Week 5 - 46 Yards (37 rush, 9 rec)Week 6 - 87 Yards (83 rush, 4 rec)Week 7 - 56 Yards (49 rush, 7 rec)So if Charles isn't good enough to supplant LJ as the starter and LJ has surpassed 75.5 yards only two times this year what makes you think that Charles is going to do so other than hype from fantasy football experts? This is coming from a Chiefs fan who has been pulling for Charles to get more carries all season. The sad truth is the line is terrible and I expect to see a split between Charles and Savage with a bit of Kolby Smith mixed in if he is activated from the PUP which I expect him to be.
:rolleyes:
Here's what the Jags have allowed to the opposing #1 RB each week this year:Week 1: Addai 42 rush 35 rec = 77 totalWeek 2: Hightower 72 rush 12 rec = 84 totalWeek 3: Slaton 76 rush 37 rec = 113 totalWeek 4: CJohnson 83 rush 11 rec = 94 totalWeek 5: Edge 46 rush 7 rec = 53 totalWeek 6: SJax 50 rush 78 rec = 128 totalWeek 7: ByeWeek 8: CJohnson 228 rush 11 rec = 239 totalSo, over 75.5 total yards has hit 6 out of 7 times, and the speedier backs are 3 for 3 in clearing the number (Slaton and Chris Johnson). :no:
 
I don't buy the "if LJ only cleared 75 yards twice what makes you think JC can do it if he couldn't take down LJ as the starter" arguments, for a few reasons.1) I'm not claiming that Charles is better than LJ. Not necessarily better in skills, better for the Chiefs as a starter week-to-week, etc. Only that he'll clear 75 yards THIS week. To me this is analogous to Jerome Harrison and Jamal Lewis. Lewis is the starter, probably the better back for Cleveland this season. But look what Harrison did with his two starts (85 total yards v. Ravens, 152 total yards v. Bengals). 2) He's playing the Jags. I appreciate the contrarian arguments, especially the one about the Chiefs' projected workload, but I'm really just not seeing how he doesn't get there.
bet the farm on it then bro!
LOL. I"m pretty sure props like these are capped at a nickel limit.
 
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So I'm browsing through the various prop bets available for this week on a particular gambling website and I see an over/under for total (rush and rec) yards for Jamaal Charles this week, set at 75.5, with both sides of the bet at -115. I decide that this must be a free money promotion put on by this website and Vegas, as there is no person in their right mind who would look at that line and say "yep, Charles is going to have less than 75 yards this week." The only explanation is that Vegas is giving money away as some sort of Vegas Bailout Campaign. The ONLY way this doesn't hit is if Jamaal gets injured during the game. I'm looking for someone to slap me back into reality to think this is not a gold mine. The Chiefs have no legitimate RB behind him to steal carries. If the game is close or the Chiefs get a big lead, he'll get carries, which should make it easy to clear 75.5 yards. If the Chiefs get blown out, he'll get garbage dump passes which should still have him clear the total easily. The Jags are BAD against the speedier backs, and if Charles gets a THIRD of what Chris Johnson got last week, he clears the number. Footballguys projects him for 105 total yards (70 rush, 35 rec). Someone tell me I'm not dreaming...
Well, I see your point.If it was a $5 bar bet with a friend while watching the NFL games I guess I'd make that bet.However, just so you know last year Charles had a big game filling in (did not start) 18 carries, 106 total yards or something similar.He started the next week, which looked like a great situation...... result? 3 carries, 8 yards.Just so you know.
 
You realize he plays for the Chiefs right? Let's look at Larry Johnson's total yards per game so far this year.Week 1 - 26 Yards (20 rush, 6 rec)Week 2 - 100 Yards (78 rush, 22 rec)Week 3 - 38 Yards (38 rush)Week 4 - 54 Yards (53 rush, 1 rec)Week 5 - 46 Yards (37 rush, 9 rec)Week 6 - 87 Yards (83 rush, 4 rec)Week 7 - 56 Yards (49 rush, 7 rec)So if Charles isn't good enough to supplant LJ as the starter and LJ has surpassed 75.5 yards only two times this year what makes you think that Charles is going to do so other than hype from fantasy football experts? This is coming from a Chiefs fan who has been pulling for Charles to get more carries all season. The sad truth is the line is terrible and I expect to see a split between Charles and Savage with a bit of Kolby Smith mixed in if he is activated from the PUP which I expect him to be.
:cry:
Here's what the Jags have allowed to the opposing #1 RB each week this year:Week 1: Addai 42 rush 35 rec = 77 totalWeek 2: Hightower 72 rush 12 rec = 84 totalWeek 3: Slaton 76 rush 37 rec = 113 totalWeek 4: CJohnson 83 rush 11 rec = 94 totalWeek 5: Edge 46 rush 7 rec = 53 totalWeek 6: SJax 50 rush 78 rec = 128 totalWeek 7: ByeWeek 8: CJohnson 228 rush 11 rec = 239 totalSo, over 75.5 total yards has hit 6 out of 7 times, and the speedier backs are 3 for 3 in clearing the number (Slaton and Chris Johnson). :wall:
Another way to look at this:CJ & SJax are top flight runners on poor offensive teams.Addai, Hightower, Slaton were on top-5 offenses.Like Edge, Charles is neither of those things.
 
So I'm browsing through the various prop bets available for this week on a particular gambling website and I see an over/under for total (rush and rec) yards for Jamaal Charles this week, set at 75.5, with both sides of the bet at -115. I decide that this must be a free money promotion put on by this website and Vegas, as there is no person in their right mind who would look at that line and say "yep, Charles is going to have less than 75 yards this week." The only explanation is that Vegas is giving money away as some sort of Vegas Bailout Campaign. The ONLY way this doesn't hit is if Jamaal gets injured during the game. I'm looking for someone to slap me back into reality to think this is not a gold mine. The Chiefs have no legitimate RB behind him to steal carries. If the game is close or the Chiefs get a big lead, he'll get carries, which should make it easy to clear 75.5 yards. If the Chiefs get blown out, he'll get garbage dump passes which should still have him clear the total easily. The Jags are BAD against the speedier backs, and if Charles gets a THIRD of what Chris Johnson got last week, he clears the number. Footballguys projects him for 105 total yards (70 rush, 35 rec). Someone tell me I'm not dreaming...
Well, I see your point.If it was a $5 bar bet with a friend while watching the NFL games I guess I'd make that bet.However, just so you know last year Charles had a big game filling in (did not start) 18 carries, 106 total yards or something similar.He started the next week, which looked like a great situation...... result? 3 carries, 8 yards.Just so you know.
Just looked that game up and Charles got injured in the first half and Savage got the majority (12 for 44 against the Chargers) of the carries. Like I said, barring injury, I don't see how he does JC doesn't get 75.5 yards.
 
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You realize he plays for the Chiefs right? Let's look at Larry Johnson's total yards per game so far this year.
And on the other hand, they are playing JAX...
The Jaguars were humiliated by Chris Johnson (24/228/2 rushing) and the Titans (49/305/2 rushing as a team) last week. They've handed over 503 rushing yards in the last four weeks (three games).
Johnson had two carries for 160 yards. Those numbers are a little deceiving. He didn't run all over them all day.
And Jamaal only needs one to cover... easy :lol:
 
I don't buy the "if LJ only cleared 75 yards twice what makes you think JC can do it if he couldn't take down LJ as the starter" arguments, for a few reasons.

1) I'm not claiming that Charles is better than LJ. Not necessarily better in skills, better for the Chiefs as a starter week-to-week, etc. Only that he'll clear 75 yards THIS week. To me this is analogous to Jerome Harrison and Jamal Lewis. Lewis is the starter, probably the better back for Cleveland this season. But look what Harrison did with his two starts (85 total yards v. Ravens, 152 total yards v. Bengals).

2) He's playing the Jags.

I appreciate the contrarian arguments, especially the one about the Chiefs' projected workload, but I'm really just not seeing how he doesn't get there.
I was with you until the bolded. Lewis can't get out of Harrison's way fast enough, IMO.
 
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So I'm browsing through the various prop bets available for this week on a particular gambling website and I see an over/under for total (rush and rec) yards for Jamaal Charles this week, set at 75.5, with both sides of the bet at -115. I decide that this must be a free money promotion put on by this website and Vegas, as there is no person in their right mind who would look at that line and say "yep, Charles is going to have less than 75 yards this week." The only explanation is that Vegas is giving money away as some sort of Vegas Bailout Campaign. The ONLY way this doesn't hit is if Jamaal gets injured during the game. I'm looking for someone to slap me back into reality to think this is not a gold mine. The Chiefs have no legitimate RB behind him to steal carries. If the game is close or the Chiefs get a big lead, he'll get carries, which should make it easy to clear 75.5 yards. If the Chiefs get blown out, he'll get garbage dump passes which should still have him clear the total easily. The Jags are BAD against the speedier backs, and if Charles gets a THIRD of what Chris Johnson got last week, he clears the number. Footballguys projects him for 105 total yards (70 rush, 35 rec). Someone tell me I'm not dreaming...
Well, I see your point.If it was a $5 bar bet with a friend while watching the NFL games I guess I'd make that bet.However, just so you know last year Charles had a big game filling in (did not start) 18 carries, 106 total yards or something similar.He started the next week, which looked like a great situation...... result? 3 carries, 8 yards.Just so you know.
Just looked that game up and Charles got injured in the first half and Savage got the majority (12 for 44 against the Chargers) of the carries. Like I said, barring injury, I don't see how he does JC doesn't get 75.5 yards.
Yeah, and he's a relatively small guy to be an all-game load carrying RB in the NFL.Not telling you not to make the bet, glad you looked up the game, just so you knew...
 
Your just the guy Vegas is looking for. Here's your sign. :thumbdown:

You might want to look at how the Chiefs have done in Jacksonville.

From NFL.com

» Last meeting: The Jaguars outrushed the Chiefs, 156-10, en route to a 17-7 victory in Week 5 of the 2007 season.

I don't think the Chiefs have ever won in there.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
If I had to bet I'd take the over, but it's far from a lock. Charles has never been asked to carry a full load - and while I'd guess that he's capable of doing so we don't know that he is. The Chiefs o-line is a mess and the Jags are better against the run thatn they are against the pass (last week's game notwithstanding). You can't count on dump off passes ganing that much yardage.

If you feel its a good bet, go for it bcause I think its very possible that you could win. I just don't see it as "free money" - Vegas isn't stupid.
That is one of the most overblown statements ever about RBs in the NFL. I don't know about you but I don't know too many NFL RBs that can't carry the load for serveral games, let alone ONE. I bet he doesn't have any problems "carrying the load" the entire year.
 
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So I'm browsing through the various prop bets available for this week on a particular gambling website and I see an over/under for total (rush and rec) yards for Jamaal Charles this week, set at 75.5, with both sides of the bet at -115. I decide that this must be a free money promotion put on by this website and Vegas, as there is no person in their right mind who would look at that line and say "yep, Charles is going to have less than 75 yards this week." The only explanation is that Vegas is giving money away as some sort of Vegas Bailout Campaign. The ONLY way this doesn't hit is if Jamaal gets injured during the game. I'm looking for someone to slap me back into reality to think this is not a gold mine. The Chiefs have no legitimate RB behind him to steal carries. If the game is close or the Chiefs get a big lead, he'll get carries, which should make it easy to clear 75.5 yards. If the Chiefs get blown out, he'll get garbage dump passes which should still have him clear the total easily. The Jags are BAD against the speedier backs, and if Charles gets a THIRD of what Chris Johnson got last week, he clears the number. Footballguys projects him for 105 total yards (70 rush, 35 rec). Someone tell me I'm not dreaming...
I hope it wasn't too expensive of a loss.
 
Mr. Retukes said:
Charles gets 83 total yards this week. Mark it down.
I think I'll mark you down, under "Never Listen To Anything He Says".
You win some you lose some. I think I was the only one saying Sims-Walker is the shark play for week 2 after his 0 in week 1. Even though he wasn't a starter.

So I do throw some gems out once in a while!

 
Mr. Retukes said:
Charles gets 83 total yards this week. Mark it down.
I think I'll mark you down, under "Never Listen To Anything He Says".
You win some you lose some. I think I was the only one saying Sims-Walker is the shark play for week 2 after his 0 in week 1. Even though he wasn't a starter.

So I do throw some gems out once in a while!
Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
 
Remember the moral of the story, youi never win betting sports, EVER. Trust me on this one. Even if charles went for 250 total, you'd just take that money and lose it on something else down the road. 0.00000001% of sports gamblers can say they're winners over the long duration. And thinking Charles will go over on that prop means you are not now, nor ever will be part of that small %. Just a friendly reminder...

 
as there is no person in their right mind who would look at that line and say "yep, Charles is going to have less than 75 yards this week." The only explanation is that Vegas is giving money away as some sort of Vegas Bailout Campaign. The ONLY way this doesn't hit is if Jamaal gets injured during the game. I'm looking for someone to slap me back into reality to think this is not a gold mine. Someone tell me I'm not dreaming...
;) No dream. A nightmare. Jamaal Charles slapped you back into reality.
 
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Remember the moral of the story, youi never win betting sports, EVER. Trust me on this one. Even if charles went for 250 total, you'd just take that money and lose it on something else down the road. 0.00000001% of sports gamblers can say they're winners over the long duration. And thinking Charles will go over on that prop means you are not now, nor ever will be part of that small %. Just a friendly reminder...
What's the action on the over for this?-QG

 
Remember the moral of the story, youi never win betting sports, EVER. Trust me on this one. Even if charles went for 250 total, you'd just take that money and lose it on something else down the road. 0.00000001% of sports gamblers can say they're winners over the long duration. And thinking Charles will go over on that prop means you are not now, nor ever will be part of that small %. Just a friendly reminder...
The key to winning at gambling over the long term is to only bet on the stone cold, lead pipe locks. And by that, of course, I mean bet the "stupid" side of the stone cold, lead pipe lock. If everyone ever agrees that a bet is "free money", then smile and put your money on the other side.If the overwhelming majority of gamblers lose over the long run, then it seems the smart play would be to make sure you're always betting with the overwhelming minority. :)
 
Remember the moral of the story, youi never win betting sports, EVER. Trust me on this one. Even if charles went for 250 total, you'd just take that money and lose it on something else down the road. 0.00000001% of sports gamblers can say they're winners over the long duration. And thinking Charles will go over on that prop means you are not now, nor ever will be part of that small %. Just a friendly reminder...
:thumbup: Sportsbook Whoring - :moneybag:

Mansion Steelers bet - :moneybag:

33% College Parlay System - :moneybag:

Only make bets when you have a statistical advantage and you will be a winner over the long duration. There are plently of FBG's that have done one or all of the above and I'm sure lots have made money over the long term.

 
So I'm browsing through the various prop bets available for this week on a particular gambling website and I see an over/under for total (rush and rec) yards for Jamaal Charles this week, set at 75.5, with both sides of the bet at -115. I decide that this must be a free money promotion put on by this website and Vegas, as there is no person in their right mind who would look at that line and say "yep, Charles is going to have less than 75 yards this week." The only explanation is that Vegas is giving money away as some sort of Vegas Bailout Campaign. The ONLY way this doesn't hit is if Jamaal gets injured during the game. I'm looking for someone to slap me back into reality to think this is not a gold mine. The Chiefs have no legitimate RB behind him to steal carries. If the game is close or the Chiefs get a big lead, he'll get carries, which should make it easy to clear 75.5 yards. If the Chiefs get blown out, he'll get garbage dump passes which should still have him clear the total easily. The Jags are BAD against the speedier backs, and if Charles gets a THIRD of what Chris Johnson got last week, he clears the number. Footballguys projects him for 105 total yards (70 rush, 35 rec). Someone tell me I'm not dreaming...
So have we heard from bigmiiiiike yet? Bigmiiiiike? Bigmiiiiike?Just busting yer chops a little, Bigmiiiiike. :(
 

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