FTSA Experts Draft (1 Viewer)

[Dez]

https://www.rtsports.com/football/draft-board.php?LID=106430&UID=fantasyfootball&CONF=0&X=1529442835895

14 of the greatest fantasy football experts in the land do battle in the FTSA Experts league.

Tom and Greg from the NFFC are the defending champs.

This is a straight 1 PPR all positions league.  Some very interesting strategies and picks in this.

The great Mike Clay goes zero RB and lands Lynch as his 1st RB.

Discuss.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

https://www.rtsports.com/football/draft-board.php?LID=106430&UID=fantasyfootball&CONF=0&X=1529442835895

14 of the greatest fantasy football experts in the land do battle in the FTSA Experts league.

Tom and Greg from the NFFC are the defending champs.

This is a straight 1 PPR all positions league.  Some very interesting strategies and picks in this.

The great Mike Clay goes zero RB and lands Lynch as his 1st RB.

Discuss.

I think that Ertz pick sunk him....he could of had any one of Ajayi/Drake/Guice/Penny at that pick...…. Lynch at rb1 is very flawed...

I think McKinnon is very overvalued at that ADP he wont be on any of my teams....I mean Evans and AJ green on the board? 

I don't normally do 14 team re-drafts so its hard to tell with the two extra teams what it really means for my 12 team re-drafts

I have always been a take stud QB guy as well...but with rivers in round10 and Stafford and bigben in round11 Ill gladly play the waiting game this year, although my leagues never go like that anyway....I suspect the guys getting zeke/gurley & bell at the top grab Rodgers etc... at the 2/3 turn in my leagues

Good value at rb - Jordan Howard, Ronald Jones (this will change by August) 

Woods & Goodwin in round 6 is great value IMO as well

 

[Tanner9919]

A couple of things jump out  to me:

1. is David Johnson really that good that he's worth the #3 overall pick? ahead of Bell and Brown?? no way.

2. Kareem Hunt's stats fell off quite a bit during the middle part  of last season, and he bouced back in December..I'm just not sure I'm buying Hunt has a better 2018 than he was in 2017 - Mahomes at QB Vegas odds on o/u is at 7.5 wins , down from last year's 10-6 record..that doesnt look good..I get that he's a good RB, but Spencer Ware is back isn't he? how will that impact Hunt's value in 2018? too many questions, not a player you want to waste the 10th overall pick on..not when Julio Jones is still out there, or Michael Thomas, etc..

3. What's with the love for McCaffrey, he's now a 2nd round pick? how? here's a guy who avg'd a lousy 3.7 yards per carry.he caught 80 balls but will he really catch more than that in 2018? probably not. his rushing stats are really bad

4. Tyreek Hill in the 2nd round? he was so up and down last year ,he only had 75 recs..I dont get why he'd be selected so high especially with the Chiefs stats I posted above concerning 2018 season. another vastly overrated player

just my take on some of the picks ..your mileage may vary. 

 

[ZWK]

Some good values: Antonio Brown, Rodgers, Michel, Brady, DJ Moore, Gostkowski, Zuerlein.

 

[menobrown]

A couple of things jump out  to me:

1. is David Johnson really that good that he's worth the #3 overall pick? ahead of Bell and Brown?? no way.

Yes, at least a top 4 pick.

4. Tyreek Hill in the 2nd round? he was so up and down last year ,he only had 75 recs..I dont get why he'd be selected so high especially with the Chiefs stats I posted above concerning 2018 season. another vastly overrated player

Not sure how you define up and down, maybe you could clarify because he was actually pretty consistent to me. Not sure why 75 catches is the golden metric. He was the #6WR in total fantasy points and #7 in points per game and he just got drafted as WR11. He outscored in PPG Adams, Green, Evans and Thielen all of whom got picked ahead of him and I think he just got QB upgrade.

 

[Ilov80s]

The start of DJ, Baldwin, McCoy is really impressive for a 14 team league. 

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Yes, at least a top 4 pick.

Not sure how you define up and down, maybe you could clarify because he was actually pretty consistent to me. Not sure why 75 catches is the golden metric. He was the #6WR in total fantasy points and #7 in points per game and he just got drafted as WR11. He outscored in PPG Adams, Green, Evans and Thielen all of whom got picked ahead of him and I think he just got QB upgrade.

to expect Mahomes to have a season like Alex Smith did last year in his first year of starting is crazy....4k yards....26/5 td/int ratio and 67% comp......sure he has upside but he has played exactly one game....I do like Hunt though...and after the big 8/9 WRs I think Tyreek does warrant a pick.

 

[Ilov80s]

A couple of things jump out  to me:

1. is David Johnson really that good that he's worth the #3 overall pick? ahead of Bell and Brown?? no way.

Why not? DJ has played 2 full seasons and those average to 1600 yards, 14 TDs and 58 receptions. That even includes his rookie year where he was only getting 6 touches a game in weeks 1-11.

Bell’s career average is 1600 yards, 8 TDs and 62 receptions. Obviously he’s missed a lot of games so that lowers his averages but also it’s a bit of a worry that’s he’s had knee injuries and suspensions.

 

[menobrown]

to expect Mahomes to have a season like Alex Smith did last year in his first year of starting is crazy....4k yards....26/5 td/int ratio and 67% comp......sure he has upside but he has played exactly one game....I do like Hunt though...and after the big 8/9 WRs I think Tyreek does warrant a pick.

Let me clarify, a better QB for fantasy production. In fantasy the completion % and int's are not relevant, just the yards and TD's and yes I think he passes both but he's also got an extra weapon that Alex did not have in Watkins and maybe a healthy Conley so he's got advantages at his dispersal. I know Alex rated highly in the deep passing game last year, even when not throwing to Hill, but I believe Mahomes are strength and aggressiveness are wins for Hill.

 

[Football Jones]

A couple of things jump out  to me:

1. is David Johnson really that good that he's worth the #3 overall pick? ahead of Bell and Brown?? no way.

2. Kareem Hunt's stats fell off quite a bit during the middle part  of last season, and he bouced back in December..I'm just not sure I'm buying Hunt has a better 2018 than he was in 2017 - Mahomes at QB Vegas odds on o/u is at 7.5 wins , down from last year's 10-6 record..that doesnt look good..I get that he's a good RB, but Spencer Ware is back isn't he? how will that impact Hunt's value in 2018? too many questions, not a player you want to waste the 10th overall pick on..not when Julio Jones is still out there, or Michael Thomas, etc..

3. What's with the love for McCaffrey, he's now a 2nd round pick? how? here's a guy who avg'd a lousy 3.7 yards per carry.he caught 80 balls but will he really catch more than that in 2018? probably not. his rushing stats are really bad

4. Tyreek Hill in the 2nd round? he was so up and down last year ,he only had 75 recs..I dont get why he'd be selected so high especially with the Chiefs stats I posted above concerning 2018 season. another vastly overrated player

just my take on some of the picks ..your mileage may vary. 

McCaffrey is a guy I'm also leery of sustaining his production. He was quite a bit better in PPR leagues, but I question whether CMac is going to keep getting that kind of passing game work, especially with Moore around. Moore is special after the catch & could take away a fair portion of the "small ball" that was going to McCaffrey.

Just in general I believe McCaffrey's passing game production could regress & he doesn't seem to be a special runner.

 

[TripItUp]

.

 

[Biabreakable]

I think that Ertz pick sunk him....he could of had any one of Ajayi/Drake/Guice/Penny at that pick...…. Lynch at rb1 is very flawed...

I agree in regards to the Graham pick after 3 WR being a mistake. I like the WR he selected a lot but the strategy causes him to reach on later picks and he doesn't get any value picks at WR. He only drafts one more WR after those top 3. So WR may not even be a strength as he lets other teams catch up with him there.

That is assuming that every team gets points for all of their players here?

That isn't clear to me as far as what are the positional starting requirements.

Lynch did perform decently last season at 31 years old although when I watched the Raiders he didn't really stand out as any better than the other two RB they were playing in rotation. Jon Gruden likely doesn't get cute like that though and rides Lynch until the wheels fall off. He broke Caddy with massive workloads. The problem is the defense though. This isn't the Bucs star studded defense.

I do like some of Clays later RB picks. However because of his strategy he is not getting good value in those later rounds because he waited too long to draft RB and is overcompensating for that by drafting so many weaker RB in the mid rounds.

I think McKinnon is very overvalued at that ADP he wont be on any of my teams....I mean Evans and AJ green on the board? 

Totally agree this pick was a massive reach.

These guys are not drafting by ADP though. There are some players going way ahead of where ADP for them is.  Tyler Lockett s ADP is 148th right now for example but he was selected at pick 83 in this draft.

I don't normally do 14 team re-drafts so its hard to tell with the two extra teams what it really means for my 12 team re-drafts

14 instead of 12 generally imbalances things compared to 12 where every team should have 4 good players to start off with those picks being in the top 50 players. With 14 teams you have 6 of the teams selecting their 4th player outside of the top 50. 

I think 16 teams or 12 teams is a bit more balanced than 14 for snake drafts.

I have always been a take stud QB guy as well...but with rivers in round10 and Stafford and bigben in round11 Ill gladly play the waiting game this year, although my leagues never go like that anyway....I suspect the guys getting zeke/gurley & bell at the top grab Rodgers etc... at the 2/3 turn in my leagues

This is mostly the consensual arrogance of "experts" playing QB chicken as long as possible. Even beyond reason, unless this is 3 points per passing TD or something.

The more teams you have the more valuable the QBs become, even if you only have to start one. However most of these drafters treat the position like this is a 12 team draft and punt the position much longer than projections would suggest they should. The QB run doesn't happen until pick 88 and there are some hella weak picks like Chris Thompson being made the round before the QB run.

Josh Gordon before Tate, Diggs and other WR in later rounds does not seem very expert to me.

I think I like what the Huddle team did with their draft the best here although they do not have a TE if ASJ does not pan out.

Otherwise I like what Tim Jenson did with the top slot. He should have the best team going first.

 

[TripItUp]

We'll start with the worst picks in the early rounds

1`.  Melvin Gordon at 1.11 selected by Glen Colton

2.  Amari Cooper at 2.13 selected by Ian Allan

3,  Jarvis Landry at 3.4 by Tai Ward

4.  Alex Collins at 3.11 selected by Glen Colton

5.  Mark Ingram at 4.6 selected by Chris Liss

6.  Marshawn Lynch 5.13 selected by Mike Clay

7.  Kirk Cousins 7.11 selected by Glen Colton

Cmon fellas, if you're going to brand this an expert draft let's at least avoid terrible picks like these.

 

[TripItUp]

Now let's get to flawed strategies

1.  The aforementioned zero RB strategy by MIke Clay...he can pretty much count on being outscored at RB every week.  Lynch may not even finish the season as is common with 30 year old RBs with a lot of tread on the tires...just an awful strategy.  

2.  Colton just kept on reaching pick after pick...he pretty much drafted my all-overvalued team.

3.  Jensen takes on way too much unnecessary risk at WR.  If he thinks fitz, a suspended Edelman and Kupp are going to get it done he has another thing coming.  A better strategy would have been to hold off on QB and TE to build more WR depth, particularly with the suspended Edelman.

4.  Charlie Wiegert made the same mistake of going too light on WR.  Baldwin, Fuller, Godwin, Hurns...HARD PASS please.  (I do like Fuller's upside)

5.  Chris Liss almost got the Zero RB strategy right but screwed it up with almost every RB drafted.   Ingram, Cohen, Jones...a lot of committee guys.  Better picks would have been Drake and Mcihel...you know, RBs with actual upside.

6.  Bender got way too cute with his QB strategy, should have selected Garropolo or Winston and instead winds up with Goff...ouch.

 

[-OZ-]

5.  Chris Liss almost got the Zero RB strategy right but screwed it up with almost every RB drafted.   Ingram, Cohen, Jones...a lot of committee guys.  Better picks would have been Drake and Mcihel...you know, RBs with actual upside.

6.  Bender got way too cute with his QB strategy, should have selected Garropolo or Winston and instead winds up with Goff...ouch.

5 - you're actually saying Cohen lacks upside? In a 1 PPR league. 

6 - Goff is probably the last QB I'd feel comfortable with as my starter. But I'll agree that I'd rather take Winston or Jimmy over Tyrell Williams. His backup, Eli, was a worse pick than Goff as his starter.

 

[TripItUp]

5 - you're actually saying Cohen lacks upside? In a 1 PPR league. 

6 - Goff is probably the last QB I'd feel comfortable with as my starter. But I'll agree that I'd rather take Winston or Jimmy over Tyrell Williams. His backup, Eli, was a worse pick than Goff as his starter.

Yes, Cohen lacks upside.

 

[-OZ-]

Yes, Cohen lacks upside.

We'll disagree, but that's why we play this thing. 

 

[Heisenberg23]

We'll start with the worst picks in the early rounds

1`.  Melvin Gordon at 1.11 selected by Glen Colton

2.  Amari Cooper at 2.13 selected by Ian Allan

3,  Jarvis Landry at 3.4 by Tai Ward

4.  Alex Collins at 3.11 selected by Glen Colton

5.  Mark Ingram at 4.6 selected by Chris Liss

6.  Marshawn Lynch 5.13 selected by Mike Clay

7.  Kirk Cousins 7.11 selected by Glen Colton

Cmon fellas, if you're going to brand this an expert draft let's at least avoid terrible picks like these.

Gordon - nothing wrong with this pick

Cooper - agree, wont be on any of my teams

Landry - agree, too high

Collins - this spot esp. in 14 teams is not bad. the pick is question only due to owner's roster of 1st 2 rounds RB -he needed a WR

Ingram - this is equivalent of early 5th in 12 teamer and even with 4 game suspended maybe ok for some owners

Lynch - agree, i pass

Cousins - i can see an argument for him here

~ My 2 cents

 

[Snorkelson]

to expect Mahomes to have a season like Alex Smith did last year in his first year of starting is crazy....4k yards....26/5 td/int ratio and 67% comp......sure he has upside but he has played exactly one game....I do like Hunt though...and after the big 8/9 WRs I think Tyreek does warrant a pick.

While I can agree that Mahomes will have a hard time replicating those numbers I don’t think KC let’s smith go if they didn’t think mahomes was ready/better. Andy Reid has coaxed very good qb seasons out of almost everyone he coaches, and has a very good track record imo. The 5 ints will increase but topping 30 tds isn’t unheard of. 

If you think about it, expecting a season like that out of Alex smith last year was crazy too, but he did it. 

I suppose I’m more worried Watkins warrants more targets than previous players, but may open things up a little as well. Plus Watkins, to date, has been overrated.

 

[Bronco Billy]

A couple of things jump out  to me:

1. is David Johnson really that good that he's worth the #3 overall pick? ahead of Bell and Brown?? no way.

2. Kareem Hunt's stats fell off quite a bit during the middle part  of last season, and he bouced back in December..I'm just not sure I'm buying Hunt has a better 2018 than he was in 2017 - Mahomes at QB Vegas odds on o/u is at 7.5 wins , down from last year's 10-6 record..that doesnt look good..I get that he's a good RB, but Spencer Ware is back isn't he? how will that impact Hunt's value in 2018? too many questions, not a player you want to waste the 10th overall pick on..not when Julio Jones is still out there, or Michael Thomas, etc..

3. What's with the love for McCaffrey, he's now a 2nd round pick? how? here's a guy who avg'd a lousy 3.7 yards per carry.he caught 80 balls but will he really catch more than that in 2018? probably not. his rushing stats are really bad

4. Tyreek Hill in the 2nd round? he was so up and down last year ,he only had 75 recs..I dont get why he'd be selected so high especially with the Chiefs stats I posted above concerning 2018 season. another vastly overrated player

just my take on some of the picks ..your mileage may vary. 

And the same game can be played with your post:

1) In a ppr league Johnson has proven himself to be absolutely worthy of this pick.  The guy is going to soak up a lot of workload in AZ.  There’s no WR who is locked into the WR2 spot, there’s no threat from a RB stealing touches from him.  TE isn’t going to take a lot of receptions away.  If he’s healthy he’s a very legit candidate to be the top non-QB in FF scoring and he’s about as safe as any player out there.

2) Now you make yourself sound like a stats only guy.  Did you watch Hunt play last year?  Vision, balance, patience, power when needed (nasty stiff arm) and finesse and great moves when its not.  Reid admitted his mistake last year in lightening his workload too much in the middle of the year.  Don’t expect that mistake again.  Plus Reid lead backs have a long history of good FF RB1 performance through multiple backs.  With a first year starting QB expect the run game to be a plus.  And Ware?  C’mon, you really didn’t see Hunt play much, did you?  Ware can’t touch Hunt’s talent - but he can spell him for 8 to 10 touches a game.  That’s all to the good in keeping Hunt healthy and fresher when he is on the field. Ware’s presence is a solid plus for Hunt.

3) Did you happen to notice McCaffrey’s last 8 games - you know, when his rushing workload jumped significantly?  Or is 4.7 ypc in that time when he finally got more attempts what you consider really bad running for RBs?

4) Hill has proven himself to be a top WR.  What more do you want him to do?  He’s proven that he’s literally almost uncoverable.  And he’s deadly on bubble screens and quick slants when he can get the ball quickly in space - a young QB’s dream safety valve.  What more does Hill have to do to prove himself?  Most FFers would say nothing, but not you apparently.

 

[Titletown_Favres]

And the same game can be played with your post:

1) In a ppr league Johnson has proven himself to be absolutely worthy of this pick.  The guy is going to soak up a lot of workload in AZ.  There’s no WR who is locked into the WR2 spot, there’s no threat from a RB stealing touches from him.  TE isn’t going to take a lot of receptions away.  If he’s healthy he’s a very legit candidate to be the top non-QB in FF scoring and he’s about as safe as any player out there.

2) Now you make yourself sound like a stats only guy.  Did you watch Hunt play last year?  Vision, balance, patience, power when needed (nasty stiff arm) and finesse and great moves when its not.  Reid admitted his mistake last year in lightening his workload too much in the middle of the year.  Don’t expect that mistake again.  Plus Reid lead backs have a long history of good FF RB1 performance through multiple backs.  With a first year starting QB expect the run game to be a plus.  And Ware?  C’mon, you really didn’t see Hunt play much, did you?  Ware can’t touch Hunt’s talent - but he can spell him for 8 to 10 touches a game.  That’s all to the good in keeping Hunt healthy and fresher when he is on the field. Ware’s presence is a solid plus for Hunt.

3) Did you happen to notice McCaffrey’s last 8 games - you know, when his rushing workload jumped significantly?  Or is 4.7 ypc in that time when he finally got more attempts what you consider really bad running for RBs?

4) Hill has proven himself to be a top WR.  What more do you want him to do?  He’s proven that he’s literally almost uncoverable.  And he’s deadly on bubble screens and quick slants when he can get the ball quickly in space - a young QB’s dream safety valve.  What more does Hill have to do to prove himself?  Most FFers would say nothing, but not you apparently.

Great points 1-3. Hill imo is overvalued. While he was #6 wr ppr last year he only had 105 targets. And KC added Watkins. Not enough targets and efficiency is not sustainable. 

 

[Ilov80s]

We'll start with the worst picks in the early rounds

1`.  Melvin Gordon at 1.11 selected by Glen Colton

Cmon fellas, if you're going to brand this an expert draft let's at least avoid terrible picks like these.

I agree with everything except Melvin Goratdon. Good QB, expected to be good NFL offfense, good defense, very little in invested backfield competition and his 3 year 16 game pace is 1400 yards, 9 TDs/ and 49 receptions. Ofcourse that is including his awful rookie year where he didn't score a single TD. That average would net 15.2 ppg and 5th best in the NFL last year. If we toss out his rookie year, his 16 game average is 1654 ayrds, 13 TDs and 55 receptions. I can't imagine being disappointed spending a first round pick on those kind of numbers.

Now let's get to flawed strategies

1.  The aforementioned zero RB strategy by MIke Clay...he can pretty much count on being outscored at RB every week.  Lynch may not even finish the season as is common with 30 year old RBs with a lot of tread on the tires...just an awful strategy.  

2.  Colton just kept on reaching pick after pick...he pretty much drafted my all-overvalued team.

3.  Jensen takes on way too much unnecessary risk at WR.  If he thinks fitz, a suspended Edelman and Kupp are going to get it done he has another thing coming.  A better strategy would have been to hold off on QB and TE to build more WR depth, particularly with the suspended Edelman.

4.  Charlie Wiegert made the same mistake of going too light on WR.  Baldwin, Fuller, Godwin, Hurns...HARD PASS please.  (I do like Fuller's upside)

5.  Chris Liss almost got the Zero RB strategy right but screwed it up with almost every RB drafted.   Ingram, Cohen, Jones...a lot of committee guys.  Better picks would have been Drake and Mcihel...you know, RBs with actual upside.

6.  Bender got way too cute with his QB strategy, should have selected Garropolo or Winston and instead winds up with Goff...ouch.

4. I agree but Fuller should have some huge weeks which is nice. Hurns is working as the #1 WR in Dallas so fwiw, that might end up being a solid pick. I love Baldwin this year. 

6. I think the Goff pick was bad, but QB is so deep this year. I am just going to wait untill the last few rounds and grab 2 of the following guys: Keenum, Eli, Tyrod, Mahomes, Mariotta, Winston. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

6. I think the Goff pick was bad, but QB is so deep this year. I am just going to wait untill the last few rounds and grab 2 of the following guys: Keenum, Eli, Tyrod, Mahomes, Mariotta, Winston. 

That could leave a mark. Mahomes and Winston (and maybe Eli) have upside but if they are gone you'll be behind the 8-ball all year.

I plan on waiting at QB as well but not until everyone else has also take their backup QBs.

 

[Bronco Billy]

So we see yet again how subjective the term “FF Expert” is.  I wouldn’t mind taking a shot at all of these guys either and see how I do.  I think they waited too long on top QBs and I get the impression that the majority of them after Rd 2 were drafting on players’ ceilings rather than reasonably expected performance.  That leave a real value on some more consistent but less sexy players that I feel could be exploited.

But that’s my opinion, and I’m smart enough to know that “FF Experts” are mythical creatures that do not exist in real life, and if they did in fact exist that I am damned sure not one of them.

.

 

[Pwingles]

14 hole killed it IMO

 

[Ilov80s]

That could leave a mark. Mahomes and Winston (and maybe Eli) have upside but if they are gone you'll be behind the 8-ball all year.

I plan on waiting at QB as well but not until everyone else has also take their backup QBs.43 

43 QBs last year had at least one QB1 week. I am not at all worried about finding productive QB play in a typical 1 QB league. 

 

[Biabreakable]

5 - you're actually saying Cohen lacks upside? In a 1 PPR league. 

6 - Goff is probably the last QB I'd feel comfortable with as my starter. But I'll agree that I'd rather take Winston or Jimmy over Tyrell Williams. His backup, Eli, was a worse pick than Goff as his starter.

Whats wrong with Eli?

He has tons of great weapons to work with.

 

[NeverEnough]

Yes, at least a top 4 pick.

Not sure how you define up and down, maybe you could clarify because he was actually pretty consistent to me. Not sure why 75 catches is the golden metric. He was the #6WR in total fantasy points and #7 in points per game and he just got drafted as WR11. He outscored in PPG Adams, Green, Evans and Thielen all of whom got picked ahead of him and I think he just got QB upgrade.

QB upgrade? We don't know what Mahomes can/will do yet!!!!

 

[NeverEnough]

5 - you're actually saying Cohen lacks upside? In a 1 PPR league. 

6 - Goff is probably the last QB I'd feel comfortable with as my starter. But I'll agree that I'd rather take Winston or Jimmy over Tyrell Williams. His backup, Eli, was a worse pick than Goff as his starter.

What's wrong with Goff?

 

[TripItUp]

What's wrong with Goff?

Regression coming, not enough pass attempts...and their defense is going to be awesome.

 

[Ilov80s]

Whats wrong with Eli?

He has tons of great weapons to work with.

With as high as OBJ, Barkley, Engram and SS are going in drafts, it doesn’t gel with how late Eli is going. 

 

[menobrown]

QB upgrade? We don't know what Mahomes can/will do yet!!!!

Yes for sure. Everyone going to just forget what Alex Smith was his entire career until last year??? Hill just had about 100 yards more in receiving than any WR that has ever played with Alex Smith and the one guy closes to him had almost 20 more targets!! Smith just threw for over 500 yards then he ever had in the past, 700 more yards on 3 LESS attempts then he did in 2015 in KC. People have short memories.

I can either believe that a 32 year old QB suddenly got considerably better or he was just playing with the most explosive WR he has ever got to play with which helped him propel his numbers. I choose the latter.

ETA-Mahomes will make more mistakes and turn it over more then Smith and I'm not yet at a point of arguing that Mahomes is a better QB for winning games than Smith. I see him making more mistakes but also bigger plays, his arm talent and aggressiveness are IMO ideal for Hill's skill set, and Watkins as well. 

 

[-OZ-]

What's wrong with Goff?

Nothing is wrong with Goff. Maybe he'll regress but there's no more reason to think he'll fall than other young QBs.  I'm quite comfortable starting him where I have him (superflex, along with Wentz).

With as high as they OBJ, Barkley, Engram and SS are going in drafts, it doesn’t gel with how late Eli is going. 

Beckham is a beast and I do think Barkley will be a decent receiver even this year, but I have zero confidence in Eli. I liked him at his value the last few years and got burned last year. He might bounce back but I'm just not counting on it. I'd rather take the chance with Mariota or Carr.

 

[Ilov80s]

Nothing is wrong with Goff. Maybe he'll regress but there's no more reason to think he'll fall than other young QBs.  I'm quite comfortable starting him where I have him (superflex, along with Wentz).

Beckham is a beast and I do think Barkley will be a decent receiver even this year, but I have zero confidence in Eli. I liked him at his value the last few years and got burned last year. He might bounce back but I'm just not counting on it. I'd rather take the chance with Mariota or Carr.

Eli plays Jags week 1 so he needs to be paired with someone. He does have upside with the offensive weapons. Or he might not get drafted and one can wait to see how things go. 

 

[electric Ape]

So we see yet again how subjective the term “FF Expert” is.  I wouldn’t mind taking a shot at all of these guys either and see how I do.  I think they waited too long on top QBs and I get the impression that the majority of them after Rd 2 were drafting on players’ ceilings rather than reasonably expected performance.  That leave a real value on some more consistent but less sexy players that I feel could be exploited.

But that’s my opinion, and I’m smart enough to know that “FF Experts” are mythical creatures that do not exist in real life, and if they did in fact exist that I am damned sure not one of them.

.

It’s actually not subjective, these are not fantasy experts. These are marketing experts who have figured out how to make a living talking about fantasy football. That’s hard to do so more power to them. Often I find their opinions interesting and valuable.

As in any form of gambling the real experts play at the highest stakes and generally share as few insights as possible. They do exist though.

Remember when the early US presidential election returns were being reported in 2016? There were “experts” all over TV opining that Trump was doing better than expected but that Hillary would still win.  At the same time the offshore betting odds had already swung wildly toward Trump. The tv talking heads in that case where much like today’s “fantasy experts,” generally articulate and more informed than the average person but more like an enthusiast than an expert.  The real experts are a lot more scientific and back their opinions with big money. And most importantly, they’re right a lot more often.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Jaylen Samuels at TE. Sneaky.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

QB upgrade? We don't know what Mahomes can/will do yet!!!!

Isn't this a perfect example of why we play this hobby....its easy to say lets wait and see, but getting serious value on a guy before be plays well is what usually wins leagues....by the time you "wait and see" its the following year and you get no value....IMO you sometimes have to plant your flag in the camp of a few guys in your draft to win your leagues....especially really competitive ones with solid players and guys that hammer the WW every week....Mahomes is a strong candidate for some serious ROI.....

 

[Stinkin Ref]

2. Kareem Hunt's stats fell off quite a bit during the middle part  of last season, and he bouced back in December..I'm just not sure I'm buying Hunt has a better 2018 than he was in 2017 - Mahomes at QB Vegas odds on o/u is at 7.5 wins , down from last year's 10-6 record..that doesnt look good..I get that he's a good RB, but Spencer Ware is back isn't he? how will that impact Hunt's value in 2018? too many questions, not a player you want to waste the 10th overall pick on..not when Julio Jones is still out there, or Michael Thomas, etc..

even with the lull during the middle of the season....depending on your league he still cleared Julio and Thomas pretty easily in PPR....and that's with one carry in week 17....and both WR's playing all year...think you are overestimating Ware's impact...dude still got AJ Green on the way back...if he passes on Hunt he is probably forced to take McKinnon in the second...

I like Hunt/Green over Julio or Thomas and MCkinnon

 

[NeverEnough]

Isn't this a perfect example of why we play this hobby....its easy to say lets wait and see, but getting serious value on a guy before be plays well is what usually wins leagues....by the time you "wait and see" its the following year and you get no value....IMO you sometimes have to plant your flag in the camp of a few guys in your draft to win your leagues....especially really competitive ones with solid players and guys that hammer the WW every week....Mahomes is a strong candidate for some serious ROI.....

The hype train is off the rails, any value in trading for him is gone.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

The hype train is off the rails, any value in trading for him is gone.

I'm coming at it from a redraft perspective....dynasty is a whole different discussion....dynasty guys probably got some serious value on him last year when he was drafted......you probably couldn't pry him from their cold dead hands at this point.....

unless they are also sold on your wait and see approach.....then it would probably be worth seeing if they would bite on an offer now....

 

[TripItUp]

Give me the upside of Mahomes over the expected mediocrity of Goff...you can always pair Mahomes with a  safe play like Stafford.

 

[-OZ-]

Give me the upside of Mahomes over the expected mediocrity of Goff...you can always pair Mahomes with a  safe play like Stafford.

While extrapolating is far from perfect, Goff was the #3 QB after his bye. #7 ppg. In his first year starting.  He added Cooks, another year in the system, lost Watkins, and Everett should develop.

Mahomes might be better but Goff is better than you're giving him credit.

 

[TripItUp]

While extrapolating is far from perfect, Goff was the #3 QB after his bye. #7 ppg. In his first year starting.  He added Cooks, another year in the system, lost Watkins, and Everett should develop.

Mahomes might be better but Goff is better than you're giving him credit.

His efficiency per pass attempt is not likely to sustain. Also, their defense will be top 3 in the league...they won't need to throw so it's not likely pass attempts increase.

 

[Dez]

Here is the "B" league experts draft also held yesterday

https://rtsports.com/fsta-gold

The team that finishes in 1st place in this league will move up next year to compete in the "A" league and the worst A league team drops to the B league. 

 

[menobrown]

Jaylen Samuels at TE. Sneaky.

 My first DE draft of this year was an FFPC DE back in February and I took him in the last round, 28,  when he was listed as TE.  He has since been changed to RB. Sucks because my 5th round pick was Hunter Henry so I'm already thin at TE and it's just June. :(   Not sure rules of this or other leagues, if they can change it later.

 

[menobrown]

Great points 1-3. Hill imo is overvalued. While he was #6 wr ppr last year he only had 105 targets. And KC added Watkins. Not enough targets and efficiency is not sustainable. 

Honest question for you. If he needed 140 targets to be the #6WR instead of 105 and was less efficient on a per target basis are you saying you would value him more?

 

[Titletown_Favres]

I think it’s hard to keep that pace. Regression

 

[-OZ-]

His efficiency per pass attempt is not likely to sustain. Also, their defense will be top 3 in the league...they won't need to throw so it's not likely pass attempts increase.

Fair enough, but he was the 17th QB. (or was it 3rr?) That's good value unless you really think he's going to fall off a cliff in his 2nd year starting.

 

[TripItUp]

Fair enough, but he was the 17th QB. (or was it 3rr?) That's good value unless you really think he's going to fall off a cliff in his 2nd year starting.

I think 17 isn't too far from his ceiling, which is why it's a terrible pick.  

I like Goff as a player and he made tremendous strides once he got out of the Fisher black hole, but the decision to wait another round on QB when there were several top 8 upside QBs still available will limit this team's QB scoring for the year.  Goff/Manning should be near the bottom in QB scoring.

 

[-OZ-]

I think 17 isn't too far from his ceiling, which is why it's a terrible pick.  

I like Goff as a player and he made tremendous strides once he got out of the Fisher black hole, but the decision to wait another round on QB when there were several top 8 upside QBs still available will limit this team's QB scoring for the year.  Goff/Manning should be near the bottom in QB scoring.

We'll see. But I like the conversation with people I disagree with. I don't think he's a top 5 guy, and the top defense is a factor, but I like him a lot as a relatively safe-ish low end starting QB. and I think he has top 5 potential, as much as anyone taken after him anyway.