Nice article, but I hope the DJ Williams "Depth at best" line was just a
misprint. If not, you have lost a good deal of creditability in my mind.
He did give a reason (previous season tackle numbers at that position) but I agree with you to a point. The one thing which struck me was that it is obviously designed for fairly small IDP league, ie not 53+ player types as the CBs don't seem to get a lot of merit.Overall a very, very impressive effort.
Although not a frequent poster in the forum, Norton knows this thread exists and hopefully he'll be along to address some of the posts this weekend.The NAFFA league he bases his determination of value on is linked in the article. The league starts 2DL/3LB/3DB with an active roster size of 32 players and 3 player taxi squad. The scoring system is weighted toward tackles. I agree that the "depth at best" comment doesn't match the #17 overall ranking.
I'm not disputing John's claim that the official scorer is stingy with solos. I'm certainly one of DJ Williams' biggest champions around here, so take the following with the appropriate grain of kosher salt.
Al Wilson's home/road splits from 2002-2006
Ian Gold's home/road splits from 2002-2006
DJ Williams' home/road splits from 2002-2006
Other than the big road advantage in 2002, there's no difference in home/away solo tackle splits in any season after factoring for PPG for Wilson or Gold. There is a split for Williams in 2004 and 2005, which I'd argue is just as likely to be due to the higher likelihood that a good team like Denver played the nickel more often at home than on the road. Notice that there is no split in 2004, when Williams did play in the nickel with Gold in Tampa Bay.
While there may be a solo tackle bias, it seems it would have to hold for road games as well. With SD, OAK and KC linebackers all putting up solid numbers in recent seasons, that argument is tough to support as well.
2006 1020 total plays (11th most) / 447 rushing attempts (19th most) >>> Wilson 84 proj solos
2005 985 total plays (20th most) / 344 rushing attempts (32nd most) >>> Wilson 66 proj solos
2004 918 total plays (31st most) / 396 rushing attempts (30th most) >>> Wilson 77 proj solos
I think this data is more likely the reason for Wilson's relatively weak solo tackle output. The Broncos have been in the bottom half of rush attempts against and faced significantly less than the NFL average in 2004 and 2005. Wilson's tackle numbers seem to track nicely with rushing attempts against. While this is anecdotal evidence -- I don't know if there's a clear statistical correlation between rushing attempts faced and MLB solo tackles -- I think it's worth considering.
The Denver rush defense has been in decline. The defensive tackle situation may have been addressed, but the LB unit is weaker without Wilson and the safety group is old, coming off injury and thin. I think the Broncos finish at least in the middle of the pack again in 2007 in rush attempts against. With the change in scheme, I certainly think it's reasonable to expect 90 plus solos from Williams. Williams may not hit the 110 plus that Zach Thomas produced in a similar scheme due to scoring inconsistencies, he's still a safe bet to be the best boxscore Denver LB in recent memory.
Thanks for the heads up, I'll try it again.
What do ya think?
Assuming no injuries, I'll have this locked up before I knock you out of the playoffs...again. 
Agreed. A sincere THANK YOU Mr. Norton for an OUTSTANDING effort. 
MMMM....Whopper with cheese. 
JB = 
