Fumbling by RB's mostly unlucky? (1 Viewer)

[Carter_Can_Fly]

What do you guys think?

I am sure many will point to Tiki as one of the lone examples of a guy that had fumbling issues in the past and then made an adjustment to how he was carrying the ball and it helped him. However I think even that may be somewhat bogus and partly luck to an extent.

Slaton has been struggling holding onto the ball and Peterson has been known to fumble and there are plenty of other examples.

I also hate when an announcer says the defense knows Slaton fumbles and are really going for the ball.... do they not always hope to go for the ball and work on strips no matter who the rb is? I mean seriously they work on that all week at practice no matter if it Slaton, MJD, Turner etc.

Do you guys think that fumbling is actually the RB's fault or is it often times just bad luck? I happen to think it is more bad luck than any other factor.

 

[p00h]

It's not an either or issue...

So if a RB runs the ball carrying it using only his thumb and pinky finger, obviously the fumbles that ensue are his fault. On the other hand, rb is running the ball carring it really securely, but a perfect hit on his hand carrying the ball pops it out, its luck(though its more a defensive play than luck). Now there are fumbles that occur to all sorts of things between those two polar opposite points on teh spectrum, and can be attributed to a whole slew of factors. So to answer your question, the issue at hand is not that simple to analzye. One thing you knwo for sure though, if a rb is consistently fumbling the ball, it is obviously something he is doing wrong...

 

[Oh Yes!]

almost always the rbs fault.

 

[SSOG]

Holding on to the football/avoid fumbles is a skill. Recovering fumbles after they've already popped out is luck.

 

[BigDave]

I agree this is tough to tell. You need to classify the type of fumble and the frequency.

#1 The RB that holds the ball perfectly is subject to an occassional great helmet hit or punching of the ball that causes a fumble. So, not the RB's fault, just bad luck.

OR

#2 The RB that incorrectly carries the ball and fumbles because of that. These are the fumbles that drive coaches and fans crazy.

OR

#3 RB is struggling to get extra yardage and not protecting the ball and winds up fumbling it.

Most observers would not get upset with scenario #1, it happens only occassionally.

Almost all observers of #2 drive themselves crazy because it is the players fault. Usually it's a younger player in the second scenario. They have not been coached properly to hold the ball a certain way. That hurts them and can be corrected.

Struggling for extra yardage hurts because they're trying their best to get the yardage but at the same time exposing the ball more leading to more fumbles. I typically have less sympathy for the#2 scenario versus the guy trying to get the extra yds.

 

[jurb26]

Holding on to the football/avoid fumbles is a skill. Recovering fumbles after they've already popped out is luck.

Agreed. There is clearly a proper way to handle the football as a RB to reduce the risk of fumbling. Carry the ball high and tight to your chest, wrapping it on both ends with your elbow and hand. Minimize movement when in high traffic areas and doubling up with both arms in times of need. Not fumbling is a skill, or more a technique that takes effort and practice to master IMO.

 

[gonzobill5]

What do you guys think?

I am sure many will point to Tiki as one of the lone examples of a guy that had fumbling issues in the past and then made an adjustment to how he was carrying the ball and it helped him. However I think even that may be somewhat bogus and partly luck to an extent.

Slaton has been struggling holding onto the ball and Peterson has been known to fumble and there are plenty of other examples.



I also hate when an announcer says the defense knows Slaton fumbles and are really going for the ball.... do they not always hope to go for the ball and work on strips no matter who the rb is? I mean seriously they work on that all week at practice no matter if it Slaton, MJD, Turner etc.

Do you guys think that fumbling is actually the RB's fault or is it often times just bad luck? I happen to think it is more bad luck than any other factor.

While this is pretty cliche, I think there is a lot of truth to it. When a guy isn't running well, he tries to fight for every yard. The more you fight, the more likely you are to get stripped. It's a vicious cycle, which is why we see fumbles in bunches.

 

[basher]

Marcus Allen averaged 4 fumbles per year over a 16 year career. Jerome Bettis and Marshall Faulk averaged 3 over 13 and 12 years. For the most part these are arbitrary numbers and not proper statistical analysis but I think it would lead one to believe that holding onto the football is clearly a skill. I also believe if someone is a known fumbler it would change a tacklers approach (slightly at least.)

 

[jurb26]

Marcus Allen averaged 4 fumbles per year over a 16 year career. Jerome Bettis and Marshall Faulk averaged 3 over 13 and 12 years. For the most part these are arbitrary numbers and not proper statistical analysis but I think it would lead one to believe that holding onto the football is clearly a skill. I also believe if someone is a known fumbler it would change a tacklers approach (slightly at least.)

Barry Sanders averaged 2.7 fumbles per year.

 

[SSOG]

Holding on to the football/avoid fumbles is a skill. Recovering fumbles after they've already popped out is luck.

Agreed. There is clearly a proper way to handle the football as a RB to reduce the risk of fumbling. Carry the ball high and tight to your chest, wrapping it on both ends with your elbow and hand. Minimize movement when in high traffic areas and doubling up with both arms in times of need. Not fumbling is a skill, or more a technique that takes effort and practice to master IMO.

More than just a technique, it's also something of a physical gift. People with larger/stronger hands are naturally going to be less prone to fumbling than people with smaller/weaker hands, although by the time you get to the NFL level most of the small-handed RBs have been weeded out.

 

[Rovers]

Marcus Allen averaged 4 fumbles per year over a 16 year career. Jerome Bettis and Marshall Faulk averaged 3 over 13 and 12 years. For the most part these are arbitrary numbers and not proper statistical analysis but I think it would lead one to believe that holding onto the football is clearly a skill. I also believe if someone is a known fumbler it would change a tacklers approach (slightly at least.)

Barry Sanders averaged 2.7 fumbles per year.

Sanders never fought for yardage after first contact. That is when many fumbles occur, and Peterson is a classic example of that. His fumbles occur when he is pushing for that extra yard. Players like Barber early in his career, and now Slaton, don't carry the ball securely. There is no one rule of thumb here. Thomas Jones rarely fumbles. Is it because he protects the ball, or because he goes down fast after first contact? Probably some of both. Bettis always wrapped both arms around the ball, and his arms were massively strong. Given his lack of speed and tremendous power, that was how he HAD to carry the ball. Then, sometimes, it's just a perfect hit, helmet on the ball that causes a fumble. I doubt any statistical analysis could ever explain fumbles, unless it is player specific.

 

[RC94]

Tiki Barber started getting a significant amount of carries in 2000. For the 4 years from 2000 thru 2003 he averaged 9 fumbles a year. He made adjustments and the final 3 years of his career he averaged 3 fumbles a year.

 

[jurb26]

Holding on to the football/avoid fumbles is a skill. Recovering fumbles after they've already popped out is luck.

Agreed. There is clearly a proper way to handle the football as a RB to reduce the risk of fumbling. Carry the ball high and tight to your chest, wrapping it on both ends with your elbow and hand. Minimize movement when in high traffic areas and doubling up with both arms in times of need. Not fumbling is a skill, or more a technique that takes effort and practice to master IMO.

More than just a technique, it's also something of a physical gift. People with larger/stronger hands are naturally going to be less prone to fumbling than people with smaller/weaker hands, although by the time you get to the NFL level most of the small-handed RBs have been weeded out.

ADP has about the strongest hands in the NFL yet he fumbles all the time. It's because of his technique. Sure, he fights for extra yardage and that leads to it as well. The main reason he fumbles though is that he allows the ball to swing away from his body too much when running.

 

[gonzobill5]

Do you guys think that fumbling is actually the RB's fault or is it often times just bad luck? I happen to think it is more bad luck than any other factor.

Really good topic, btw. You know, the more I think about it, the more I'm leaning toward calling it just plain bad luck. I mean, I get that RBs are probably significantly better at ball security than WRs, who are probably significantly better than QBs. But I'm not sure you can say that the reason that Slaton has more fumbles than Matt Forte, for example, is because Slaton is significantly worse at ball security. I'm curious if anyone knows where we could find fumbles/touch data. You could easily see if the difference between certain runningbacks was significant making a few assumptions.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Holding on to the football/avoid fumbles is a skill. Recovering fumbles after they've already popped out is luck.

I was listening to a little chicago sports talk radio a few years ago, and one of the old bears players mentioned something about this that has always stuck with me.he said that he really worked his ### off chasing loose balls, never quitting on a play, always hustling for the ball, and 9 out of 10 times he couldn't get it, but he still kept trying just as hard ---- when he finally got it that tenth time everybody told him how lucky he was.

 

[Chase Stuart]

The fighting for extra yards ==> more fumbles relationship has some statistical support: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=997

 

[SSOG]

Holding on to the football/avoid fumbles is a skill. Recovering fumbles after they've already popped out is luck.

I was listening to a little chicago sports talk radio a few years ago, and one of the old bears players mentioned something about this that has always stuck with me.he said that he really worked his ### off chasing loose balls, never quitting on a play, always hustling for the ball, and 9 out of 10 times he couldn't get it, but he still kept trying just as hard ---- when he finally got it that tenth time everybody told him how lucky he was.

It requires effort, but there's never been any statistical evidence that certain players or teams are more likely to recover fumbles than any other team or player.