EBF
Footballguy
I'm starting to finalize my rankings, so I thought I'd post a little slice of them for public consumption. I plan to have an updated, 24 man list done before the start of the NFL draft.
Rankings are for ppr leagues.
First Tier
1. Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
Positives: Strong back with great speed. Runs away from defenses and will break lots of big plays. Great instincts. Has the ability to react to the situation and make a quick plant to alter his course. Very productive in college. Good all-around numbers at the combine. High character player with the necessary warrior's mentality. Shows promise as a receiver despite limited opportunities.
Negatives: A little bit taller and lankier than ideal. He's almost built like a WR. Runs tall, gets involved in too many collisions, and has been dinged up throughout his career. Has decent quickness, but is really more of a straight line runner, as he rarely jukes defenders. Doesn't have the elite quicks of a Tomlinson or a Bush. Was bottled up in bowl games and can be shut down by a good defense.
Overall: Peterson is probably a little bit overhyped, but he's still the best back in this class. I think Calvin Johnson is a slightly better prospect, but Peterson gets the nod here because he's a RB and RBs usually offer an earlier return and higher trade value. Peterson has a chance to be one of the top 4-5 pure runners in the league, but his upright style is a genuine concern and he's not the perfect player some people make him out to be. Nevertheless, one of the more promising backs to enter the draft in the past few years.
NFL Comparisons: A cross between Deuce McAllister and Chris Brown
2. Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
Positives: Has a huge frame with long arms. Superb body control and coordination. Good deep speed. Quick for his size and is capable of separating on underneath routes. Strong enough to defeat the press with ease. High character prospect with a winning attitude.
Negatives: Not a stiff, but he's not as quick out of his plant as a guy like Santana Moss or Steve Smith. Might have some trouble on come-backs and other routes that rely on quickness. Timed speed is good, but doesn't have the acceleration of a guy like Randy Moss.
Overall: A phenomenal talent with a rare combination of physical skills and football ability. May never be the susperstar that he's being billed as, but he's a surefire bet to have a solid NFL career as long as he stays healthy. At best, could put up Randy Moss numbers. At worst, he'll be another Keyshawn.
NFL Comparisons: Larry Fitzgerald, Keyshawn Johnson
Second Tier
3. Marshawn Lynch, RB, California
Positives: Good overall athlete. Productive since his freshman year. Has a nearly ideal build for an NFL RB. Powerful. Useful in the passing game. Pretty good lateral agility.
Negatives: Can't run away from defenders and will get caught from behind. Though his quickness is adequate for a starter, he's not as explosive as the top NFL RBs. Has some minor character issues.
Overall: Lynch is a well-rounded back with all of the tools needed to be effective at the next level. He lacks the transcendant skills of a guy like Tomlinson or Bush, but he's capable of being very productive and could quite conceivably have a better overall career than Peterson. Situation will play a huge role in his production, because he's not quite good enough to be a monster on a bad team (think McGahee or Cadillac if he lands in a dud spot).
NFL Comparisons: less athletic Edgerrin James and Kevin Jones
4. Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU
Positives: Power WR in the mold of Anquan Boldin and Hines Ward. Strong. Athletic with surprising speed. Natural football player who walks the walk on the field. Widely considered one of the top performers if not the the top performer at the Senior Bowl. Showed well at the combine and was really exceptional at LSU's pro day.
Negatives: Not a true burner or a guy who will stretch the field. He'll earn his living between the chains.
Overall: An unsung player who looks like one of the safer bets in this crop. Lacks the elite upside of guys like Johnson, Meachem, and Rice, but he's going to get his. Look for him to eventually develop into a very effective NFL player and solid WR2 for FF purposes.
NFL Comparisons: Anquan Boldin, Hines Ward
Third Tier
5. Kenny Irons, RB, Auburn
Positives: A little bit lighter than ideal, but he has a very good build for the position. Athletic player with that SEC swagger. Runs low to the ground and is pretty quick and explosive. Productive in college. Strong all-around showing at the combine and pro day. Athletic skills are on par with those of NFL starters.
Negatives: Not a good receiver and probably never will be. Runs hard, but lacks the natural bulk to overpower defenders. Had a disappointing senior campaign.
Overall: A solid, if not spectacular prospect. Irons could be productive starting for an NFL team, but may not have the natural skills to command 300 carries. Nevertheless, a talented back who has clearly established himself in my eyes as the RB3 from this class. Could be a real surprise.
NFL Comparisons: Julius Jones, Clinton Portis, Carnell Williams
6. Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
Positives: Has a strong combination of size, speed, and quickness. Good football player who finally lived up to his high school billing by posting a monster season last year. Played well against tough competition. Stood out at the combine.
Negatives: Toughness has been questioned, which is always a major red flag for a WR. Doesn't always seem to play with the fire of Bowe, Johnson, or Jarrett.
Overall: Meachem doesn't have the hype of a guy like Calvin Johnson, but it's tough to find any glaring flaws in his game. A promising player who appears to be coming into his own, he could have a long and productive NFL career.
NFL Comparison: Amani Toomer
7. Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC
Positives: Good frame. Immensely productive. Good hands and coordination. Capable of making circus catches. A little bit quicker than you'd expect. Has a history of stepping up in big games, including a 205 yard and 2 TD torching of Michigan and CB Leon Hall.
Negatives: Speed? There's some talk that he might run a 4.7 at his pro day. Guys like Reggie Williams and Mike Williams have disappointed in the NFL after monster Pac-10 careers. Is Jarrett just another in that line? Work ethic and maturity have come into question. Slight bust risk.
Overall: This may be a little bit high for Jarrett, but history has taught me to trust my initial judgment, and my initial judgment after watching many of Dwayne's games is that he would go on to become a very solid pro. He'll never be truly elite because he lacks the speed to beat NFL defenders deep and he's not a great run after the catch guy, but I still think he can be a productive starter.
NFL Comparisons: Plaxico Burress, Keyshawn Johnson
Fourth Tier
8. Jason Hill, WR, Washington State
Positives: Very productive in college. Football player with good hands and enough savvy to get open. Didn't draw raves at the Senior Bowl, but generally played well. Considered a top prospect coming into the season. Surprised everyone with blaxing 40 times at the combine, which is a mixed blessing. It's good that he's fast, but bad that no one expected him to be fast.
Negatives: Good athlete, but not truly explosive. You have to wonder why Hill has been cited for a lack of speed. Was it injuries that slowed him down last year, or does he just not play up to his 4.3 speed?
Overall: Hill is a classic example of a quality football player who could be overlooked on draft day in favor of flashier options. Nevertheless, this guy can play ball and in a few years, we might all be wondering why we didn't see him coming.
NFL Comparison: Reggie Wayne
9. Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina
Positives: Athletically, he's probably the second best WR in this draft behind Johnson. Good size, speed, and leaping ability. Good downfield threat.
Negatives: Looks a little bit one-dimensional. Is he more than a deep threat? Guys like Ashley Lelie and Troy Williamson have had minimal success in that role, but Rice has an advantage over them due to his size and ball skills. Might not be very effective in the short and mid range passing game. Not a great runner after the catch.
Overall: Rice has intriguing skills, but he lacks polish and may never be more than a deep threat #2 WR at the next level. Nevertheless, if he goes to a team that can maximize his talents then he can be quite productive.
NFL Comparisons: Javon Walker, Michael Jenkins
10. Greg Olsen, TE, Miami
Positives: Rare speed for the position. Skilled receiver who can make an impact working the middle of the field. Top high school prospect who has impressed in spite of the turmoil at Miami.
Negatives: Didn't really dominate statistically, although it's pretty common for top TEs to have marginal production in college. Not as athletic as someone like Kellen Winslow or Tony Gonzalez.
Overall: Quietly one of the safer skill position prospects in the draft, Olsen should become a productive starter in the NFL. Probably not a special player and his upside is somewhat limited given the position that he plays, but he still warrants FF consideration in the top 10-15 picks.
NFL Comparison: less dominant Jeremy Shockey
11. Ted Ginn, WR, Ohio State
Positives: Blazing speed. Can take the short catch to the house. Long strider, but he has good field vision to make the long run. Hands seem decent enough. One of the more exciting players in the draft. Should be a top 20 pick come April.
Negatives: Considered by many to be a better return man than receiver. Will contribute in the passing game, but doesn't really have the look of an elite WR. Long-strider who doesn't have ideal lateral quickness. Thin build. Can he win a jump ball? Really a bit of an enigma.
Overall: Beware of Ginn. He'll be a high NFL draft pick (possibly WR2), but his NFL value will probably exceed his FF value. He flashes good skills as a WR, but I have this nagging hunch that he'll never be more than a second or third target at the next level.
NFL Comparison: Donte Stallworth, Troy Williamson, Eddie Kennison
12. Antonio Pittman, RB, Ohio State
Positives: Productive in college and was able to keep his job despite challenges from some highly-touted compeititon. Pretty good straight line speed and acceleration. Quickness is okay. Has an adequate build for the position. Really made a nice case for himself at the combine.
Negatives: Not the most powerful runner. Solid, but unspectacular. Doesn't really stand out as being an exceptional playmaker.
Overall: Pittman may go as high as the 2nd round on draft day, but it's tough for me to imagine him taking the NFL by storm. He does a lot of things well and he wouldn't be a complete liability as a starter, but he just might not have enough "wow" ability to become more than a backup.
NFL Comparison: Chester Taylor
NEAR MISSES:
Brandon Jackson, RB, Nebraska - Performed well at the combine and has a good build for the position, but I just don't quite think he's special enough to warrant a selection over this great group of WRs.
Brady Quinn/Jamarcus Russell - The absence of Quinn and Russell on the list looks like glaring omission, but isn't it true that good WRs and good RBs almost always carry more trade/draft value than good QBs? Factor in the huge bust risk associated with the QB position and the huge number of top WRs in this class, and I think there's reason to skip the passers in the first round. That said, I was awfully tempted to put Quinn somewhere between 9-12. I could justify taking him ahead of Olsen.
Lorenzo Booker, RB Florida State - I like his skills, but I view him strictly as a niche player in the NFL. Then again, I felt that way about Norwood and Drew last year, so maybe I'm just missing the boat again.
TOP SLEEPERS
Trent Edwards, QB, Stanford - Five star high school QB has a realistic chance of becoming the best NFL QB from this class. He's this year's Jay Cutler. As a Stanford homer, I can tell you that he never had a chance to succeed in college. The supporting talent was atrocious, the coaching was bad, and the line was extremely porous (think David Carr circa 2002 here). But don't sleep on Edwards. He did well at his pro day and I hear Mike Martz is sold.
Aundrae Allison/Johnnie Lee Higgins/Steve Smith - Keep an eye on this trio of WRs. They all have a realistic chance of emerging as productive NFL WRs. The only reason they're not ranked in my top 12 is because this is such a strong WR group that it's tough to find a spot for these three. Nevertheless, I expect at least one of these players to greatly exceed expectations and become a 1,000 yard type out of rounds 2-3.
NOTES:
- The biggest gray area for me right now is the WR3-6 slots. I think you can make a case for almost any order there, so don't be surprised if I make major changes. It's very tough to differentiate between guys like Meachem, Rice, and Jarrett.
- This RB class is putrid, IMO. I just can't get excited about any of these guys after Irons.
Rankings are for ppr leagues.
First Tier
1. Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
Positives: Strong back with great speed. Runs away from defenses and will break lots of big plays. Great instincts. Has the ability to react to the situation and make a quick plant to alter his course. Very productive in college. Good all-around numbers at the combine. High character player with the necessary warrior's mentality. Shows promise as a receiver despite limited opportunities.
Negatives: A little bit taller and lankier than ideal. He's almost built like a WR. Runs tall, gets involved in too many collisions, and has been dinged up throughout his career. Has decent quickness, but is really more of a straight line runner, as he rarely jukes defenders. Doesn't have the elite quicks of a Tomlinson or a Bush. Was bottled up in bowl games and can be shut down by a good defense.
Overall: Peterson is probably a little bit overhyped, but he's still the best back in this class. I think Calvin Johnson is a slightly better prospect, but Peterson gets the nod here because he's a RB and RBs usually offer an earlier return and higher trade value. Peterson has a chance to be one of the top 4-5 pure runners in the league, but his upright style is a genuine concern and he's not the perfect player some people make him out to be. Nevertheless, one of the more promising backs to enter the draft in the past few years.
NFL Comparisons: A cross between Deuce McAllister and Chris Brown
2. Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
Positives: Has a huge frame with long arms. Superb body control and coordination. Good deep speed. Quick for his size and is capable of separating on underneath routes. Strong enough to defeat the press with ease. High character prospect with a winning attitude.
Negatives: Not a stiff, but he's not as quick out of his plant as a guy like Santana Moss or Steve Smith. Might have some trouble on come-backs and other routes that rely on quickness. Timed speed is good, but doesn't have the acceleration of a guy like Randy Moss.
Overall: A phenomenal talent with a rare combination of physical skills and football ability. May never be the susperstar that he's being billed as, but he's a surefire bet to have a solid NFL career as long as he stays healthy. At best, could put up Randy Moss numbers. At worst, he'll be another Keyshawn.
NFL Comparisons: Larry Fitzgerald, Keyshawn Johnson
Second Tier
3. Marshawn Lynch, RB, California
Positives: Good overall athlete. Productive since his freshman year. Has a nearly ideal build for an NFL RB. Powerful. Useful in the passing game. Pretty good lateral agility.
Negatives: Can't run away from defenders and will get caught from behind. Though his quickness is adequate for a starter, he's not as explosive as the top NFL RBs. Has some minor character issues.
Overall: Lynch is a well-rounded back with all of the tools needed to be effective at the next level. He lacks the transcendant skills of a guy like Tomlinson or Bush, but he's capable of being very productive and could quite conceivably have a better overall career than Peterson. Situation will play a huge role in his production, because he's not quite good enough to be a monster on a bad team (think McGahee or Cadillac if he lands in a dud spot).
NFL Comparisons: less athletic Edgerrin James and Kevin Jones
4. Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU
Positives: Power WR in the mold of Anquan Boldin and Hines Ward. Strong. Athletic with surprising speed. Natural football player who walks the walk on the field. Widely considered one of the top performers if not the the top performer at the Senior Bowl. Showed well at the combine and was really exceptional at LSU's pro day.
Negatives: Not a true burner or a guy who will stretch the field. He'll earn his living between the chains.
Overall: An unsung player who looks like one of the safer bets in this crop. Lacks the elite upside of guys like Johnson, Meachem, and Rice, but he's going to get his. Look for him to eventually develop into a very effective NFL player and solid WR2 for FF purposes.
NFL Comparisons: Anquan Boldin, Hines Ward
Third Tier
5. Kenny Irons, RB, Auburn
Positives: A little bit lighter than ideal, but he has a very good build for the position. Athletic player with that SEC swagger. Runs low to the ground and is pretty quick and explosive. Productive in college. Strong all-around showing at the combine and pro day. Athletic skills are on par with those of NFL starters.
Negatives: Not a good receiver and probably never will be. Runs hard, but lacks the natural bulk to overpower defenders. Had a disappointing senior campaign.
Overall: A solid, if not spectacular prospect. Irons could be productive starting for an NFL team, but may not have the natural skills to command 300 carries. Nevertheless, a talented back who has clearly established himself in my eyes as the RB3 from this class. Could be a real surprise.
NFL Comparisons: Julius Jones, Clinton Portis, Carnell Williams
6. Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
Positives: Has a strong combination of size, speed, and quickness. Good football player who finally lived up to his high school billing by posting a monster season last year. Played well against tough competition. Stood out at the combine.
Negatives: Toughness has been questioned, which is always a major red flag for a WR. Doesn't always seem to play with the fire of Bowe, Johnson, or Jarrett.
Overall: Meachem doesn't have the hype of a guy like Calvin Johnson, but it's tough to find any glaring flaws in his game. A promising player who appears to be coming into his own, he could have a long and productive NFL career.
NFL Comparison: Amani Toomer
7. Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC
Positives: Good frame. Immensely productive. Good hands and coordination. Capable of making circus catches. A little bit quicker than you'd expect. Has a history of stepping up in big games, including a 205 yard and 2 TD torching of Michigan and CB Leon Hall.
Negatives: Speed? There's some talk that he might run a 4.7 at his pro day. Guys like Reggie Williams and Mike Williams have disappointed in the NFL after monster Pac-10 careers. Is Jarrett just another in that line? Work ethic and maturity have come into question. Slight bust risk.
Overall: This may be a little bit high for Jarrett, but history has taught me to trust my initial judgment, and my initial judgment after watching many of Dwayne's games is that he would go on to become a very solid pro. He'll never be truly elite because he lacks the speed to beat NFL defenders deep and he's not a great run after the catch guy, but I still think he can be a productive starter.
NFL Comparisons: Plaxico Burress, Keyshawn Johnson
Fourth Tier
8. Jason Hill, WR, Washington State
Positives: Very productive in college. Football player with good hands and enough savvy to get open. Didn't draw raves at the Senior Bowl, but generally played well. Considered a top prospect coming into the season. Surprised everyone with blaxing 40 times at the combine, which is a mixed blessing. It's good that he's fast, but bad that no one expected him to be fast.
Negatives: Good athlete, but not truly explosive. You have to wonder why Hill has been cited for a lack of speed. Was it injuries that slowed him down last year, or does he just not play up to his 4.3 speed?
Overall: Hill is a classic example of a quality football player who could be overlooked on draft day in favor of flashier options. Nevertheless, this guy can play ball and in a few years, we might all be wondering why we didn't see him coming.
NFL Comparison: Reggie Wayne
9. Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina
Positives: Athletically, he's probably the second best WR in this draft behind Johnson. Good size, speed, and leaping ability. Good downfield threat.
Negatives: Looks a little bit one-dimensional. Is he more than a deep threat? Guys like Ashley Lelie and Troy Williamson have had minimal success in that role, but Rice has an advantage over them due to his size and ball skills. Might not be very effective in the short and mid range passing game. Not a great runner after the catch.
Overall: Rice has intriguing skills, but he lacks polish and may never be more than a deep threat #2 WR at the next level. Nevertheless, if he goes to a team that can maximize his talents then he can be quite productive.
NFL Comparisons: Javon Walker, Michael Jenkins
10. Greg Olsen, TE, Miami
Positives: Rare speed for the position. Skilled receiver who can make an impact working the middle of the field. Top high school prospect who has impressed in spite of the turmoil at Miami.
Negatives: Didn't really dominate statistically, although it's pretty common for top TEs to have marginal production in college. Not as athletic as someone like Kellen Winslow or Tony Gonzalez.
Overall: Quietly one of the safer skill position prospects in the draft, Olsen should become a productive starter in the NFL. Probably not a special player and his upside is somewhat limited given the position that he plays, but he still warrants FF consideration in the top 10-15 picks.
NFL Comparison: less dominant Jeremy Shockey
11. Ted Ginn, WR, Ohio State
Positives: Blazing speed. Can take the short catch to the house. Long strider, but he has good field vision to make the long run. Hands seem decent enough. One of the more exciting players in the draft. Should be a top 20 pick come April.
Negatives: Considered by many to be a better return man than receiver. Will contribute in the passing game, but doesn't really have the look of an elite WR. Long-strider who doesn't have ideal lateral quickness. Thin build. Can he win a jump ball? Really a bit of an enigma.
Overall: Beware of Ginn. He'll be a high NFL draft pick (possibly WR2), but his NFL value will probably exceed his FF value. He flashes good skills as a WR, but I have this nagging hunch that he'll never be more than a second or third target at the next level.
NFL Comparison: Donte Stallworth, Troy Williamson, Eddie Kennison
12. Antonio Pittman, RB, Ohio State
Positives: Productive in college and was able to keep his job despite challenges from some highly-touted compeititon. Pretty good straight line speed and acceleration. Quickness is okay. Has an adequate build for the position. Really made a nice case for himself at the combine.
Negatives: Not the most powerful runner. Solid, but unspectacular. Doesn't really stand out as being an exceptional playmaker.
Overall: Pittman may go as high as the 2nd round on draft day, but it's tough for me to imagine him taking the NFL by storm. He does a lot of things well and he wouldn't be a complete liability as a starter, but he just might not have enough "wow" ability to become more than a backup.
NFL Comparison: Chester Taylor
NEAR MISSES:
Brandon Jackson, RB, Nebraska - Performed well at the combine and has a good build for the position, but I just don't quite think he's special enough to warrant a selection over this great group of WRs.
Brady Quinn/Jamarcus Russell - The absence of Quinn and Russell on the list looks like glaring omission, but isn't it true that good WRs and good RBs almost always carry more trade/draft value than good QBs? Factor in the huge bust risk associated with the QB position and the huge number of top WRs in this class, and I think there's reason to skip the passers in the first round. That said, I was awfully tempted to put Quinn somewhere between 9-12. I could justify taking him ahead of Olsen.
Lorenzo Booker, RB Florida State - I like his skills, but I view him strictly as a niche player in the NFL. Then again, I felt that way about Norwood and Drew last year, so maybe I'm just missing the boat again.
TOP SLEEPERS
Trent Edwards, QB, Stanford - Five star high school QB has a realistic chance of becoming the best NFL QB from this class. He's this year's Jay Cutler. As a Stanford homer, I can tell you that he never had a chance to succeed in college. The supporting talent was atrocious, the coaching was bad, and the line was extremely porous (think David Carr circa 2002 here). But don't sleep on Edwards. He did well at his pro day and I hear Mike Martz is sold.
Aundrae Allison/Johnnie Lee Higgins/Steve Smith - Keep an eye on this trio of WRs. They all have a realistic chance of emerging as productive NFL WRs. The only reason they're not ranked in my top 12 is because this is such a strong WR group that it's tough to find a spot for these three. Nevertheless, I expect at least one of these players to greatly exceed expectations and become a 1,000 yard type out of rounds 2-3.
NOTES:
- The biggest gray area for me right now is the WR3-6 slots. I think you can make a case for almost any order there, so don't be surprised if I make major changes. It's very tough to differentiate between guys like Meachem, Rice, and Jarrett.
- This RB class is putrid, IMO. I just can't get excited about any of these guys after Irons.
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Why cant we get him added to staff?
