Gamblers Corner - Correct Hedge for Final Four? (1 Viewer)

[ghostguy123]

It's an example of results based analysis, like you're putting forward.

No, no I am not, and based on your last few posts you have absolutely NO IDEA what I am even saying as to why the hedge was a good play last night. Amazing considering how many posts I have clearly saying it.

If anything, my analysis shows that hedging on the Uconn moneyline would show better results over the long run if you consider last nights game a pick-em, which I did

 

[munga30]

The question Cyclones should have asked himself is "can I afford to spend $1300* to ensure having $3500?"

$8000*0.6 - $3500 = $1300.

False.Your math assumes that .6 was an actual number.

That's Cyclones' own estimate, taken from his post today. It doesn't matter what the percentage is or whether it's sharp. It represents what Cyclones thinks he has to spend.

 

[DrJ]

Gambling on the outcome of last night's game is a game of chance. Get the picture on that yet?

then tell me the chances of kentucky winning??

You are avoiding this like its dodgeball

It doesn't matter what I think the odds were. It matters what Cyclones thought the odds were, he was the one betting.

lol, jesus.

So then you are saying every bet is a good bet if the person feels it is a good bet.

yet you have also said every bet is a bad bet because of -EV.

####

If you're good at gambling your bets will be good bets more often than not. If you're bad at gambling, the reverse will be true. Making a play based on something other than the probability of the bet actually paying is going to put you in category 2 - you're just flipping coins at a disadvantage then.

 

[DrJ]

Okay, the fact that cards are dealt randomly doesn't make a poker game entirely random either. So what's your point?

Poker is not random. What's YOUR point?

My point is that the same mathematical concepts are applicable to both.

why are you even talking about poker?

Because it can be used to illustrate these mathematical concepts.

 

[ghostguy123]

So you're up all of these thousands in your sports betting lifetime, but you have to go through a friend's bookie, and you can't even get a moneyline wager in or one of your patented parlays with him? All of the other guys cut you off, I guess.

Again, the UK future is totally independent of his UConn bet in the "really liking them"-scenario......if he really felt that UConn was going to win the game, he should absolutely Kelly bet what his bankroll allows him to after he has calculated his edge on the UConn ML play.....UK FUTURE BE DARNED - THEY ARE SEPARATE WAGERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

"50/50"? C'mon man, you're honestly going to tell me that you have that big of an edge on arguably the most wagered upon single championship game in all of American sports besides the Super Bowl? Of course that hedge will be more +EV than holding pat on the futures ticket due to the fact that every single leg of the equation will be off the charts +EV. In which case, you wouldn't even have a hedge, you'd have two really good, independent bets. If you really felt that way and truly knew what you were doing, you should have been on a plane to Vegas placing pretty large wagers on UConn (given your bankroll). I said to be realistic with it.

SInce you really want to know, I USUALLY bet online on topbet.com. I currently have no money in because I cashed out about a month and a half ago. It sucks putting money back in to make a couple hundred worth of wagers because they charge a 40 dollar fee to withdraw money.

Now you might ask WHY I withdrew and didnt just leave the money in there. Partially because I dont like to let my money sit in an offshore betting account. But MAINLY because I know I will end up betting on stuff for the hell of it that I don't have a strong feeling about. I fully recognize that I have a high probability of doing this, so I cashed out.

I will put money in again when football season starts. There are so many games and stuff to look at during that time that I wont be tempted to make "#### it" bets.

And I already said, I am not good enough at it to win MILLIONS of dollars. Although, I suppose I would if I was able to start with a bankroll of a hundred million.

And 30 grand over 15 years of betting really isnt a lot of money. But I have a feeling I am in the top 1-2% of gamblers in this regard.

As for last nights game, dont know what to tell you. I thought it was a pickem

 

[munga30]

The question Cyclones should have asked himself is "can I afford to spend $1300* to ensure having $3500?"

$8000*0.6 - $3500 = $1300.

What about the potential middle he had?

I didn't bother to go that far back but, sure, it can be accounted for the same way. Point is the comparison isn't "risking $3500 to win $8000". It's *spending* $X to get {distribution of hedge parlay results}.

 

[Cyclones]

The question Cyclones should have asked himself is "can I afford to spend $1300* to ensure having $3500?"

$8000*0.6 - $3500 = $1300.

False.Your math assumes that .6 was an actual number.

That's Cyclones' own estimate, taken from his post today. It doesn't matter what the percentage is or whether it's sharp. It represents what Cyclones thinks he has to spend.

where did i put .6 in any post?

 

[swirvenirvin]

You're saying 100% of the time I should just let it ride?

There's no scenario that exists where betting AGAINST the team I have a futures bet on would make any financial sense?

It depends on your situation. Can you afford to spend the money to not let it ride? Does it make "financial sense" (whatever that means) for you to have less but have certain? I can't answer that for you.

bankroll is not really a concern here. let's assume the bet is less than 1% of total bankroll. I don't think it makes much sense to be putting big money on 40:1 longshots. these are usually more bets for fun that have a shot at paying out in the end, or at least presenting a great hedge opportunity to lock in profits when they get close.

I'm with you here. Depending on the profiyt of the original bet, i will take a hedge opportunity to gurantee some money.

 

[lumpy19]

please stop doing this

why?

It's a terrible gambling "strategy" that's costing you money.

this doesn't help.

I mean it's fun to be lectured, but usually people give more information than just telling you what to do without any explanation.

so, hedging is always a losing strategy? it doesn't depend on the situation and the odds presented and what you think is likely to happen?

It's always a losing strategy. Once you make a futures bet that's it, bet is made money is gone. Any bet you make after that is completely independent of your previously placed future bet.

The only time you should ever "hedge" a wager is if you overbet. Lots of posts in this thread that point out from an EV standpoint hedging is never correct.

It's definitely a concept I struggled with and still struggle with(I wanted to guarantee some profit on my 50-1 wisconsin bet) It's tempting to "lock in" that profit but it's never the right decision.

 

[munga30]

I'm willing to believe people that say hedging is almost always the wrong move, but I haven't read a compelling case from anyone in here so far that makes that point.

Why is reduced variance and guaranteed profit a bad play in this situation? What if the 8k in winnings here was the largest bet he'll ever potentially win and he's normally a low stakes gambler? What if he's a Kentucky fan and he wants to make a misery hedge because if Kentucky wins he's happy and he wins money, but if Kentucky loses he's going to be super pissed that his team lost AND he lost what was basically free money at that point?

I never said it was always the wrong move to place a bet counter to an existing bet you have out there. If you think that bet is a good bet (+EV) on its own merit, you should make it. But making bets with the express purpose of limiting your variance (hedging) isn't doing that.

The books are making money off of taking these bets - there's a built in disadvantage to you probability wise. If you simply play a bunch of coin flips you are going to lose money long term - you need to be able to beat that built in edge to make money.

So how would "letting it ride" in this case have beat the built in edge????

Because you can prove Kentucky would win that game like 590 times out of a 1000???

Hint> he's not talking about this one individual bet. He's operating under the assumption that he will make many futures bets over time.

Which is where this thread jumped the shark.

Cyclones can't afford to lose $200

Cyclones is a ####ty bankroll manager

Cyclones will be presented with hundreds of these opportunities in the future

Kentucky is going to win this game 60% of the time

etc etc

A bunch of way off base assumptions. Cliff put it best and most succinctly - it was a one off bet where a hedge made sense.

Well, you wrote it here but I now see that it's not your estimate. Point still stands that you set up the wrong question.

 

[ghostguy123]

If you're good at gambling your bets will be good bets more often than not. If you're bad at gambling, the reverse will be true. Making a play based on something other than the probability of the bet actually paying is going to put you in category 2 - you're just flipping coins at a disadvantage then.

I know. Did I say otherwise?

What about last nights game and Cyclones situation makes you think I would be doing that?

I felt Uconn was 50-50 to win last night, and they were getting points. The only thing that might be different is the AMOUNT I bet. I didnt have the golden 40-1 kentucky ticket.

If I did, I might have taken the Uconn moneyline for about 6 grand at +135.

If I felt Kentucky had like a 65% chance to win, I would have PROBABLY hedged just enough to make sure I didn't lose any money throughout this entire ordeal, maybe a little more to make sure I won SOMETHING just for kicks.

 

[ghostguy123]

Because it can be used to illustrate these mathematical concepts.

I suppose it CAN be........................but you gotta make sure you actually use them right.

DO everyone a favor. Stop talking about poker

 

[lumpy19]

The poker analogy was spot-on, you're crazy to fold preflop with those pot odds just as Cy was crazy to hedge that bet last night.

Ghost, you keep alluding to this incorrect moneyline that I used in my calculations. For our next experiment, I'm totally willing to look past the fact that if you're that good at exploiting efficient markets that you'd be typing replies from your own island. Instead I want you, after the game has already been played, to give me what the moneyline should have been/your estimate of what uconn's probability of winning SHOULD have been. Again, all of this is after the game has been played. Please be realistic is all that I ask (i.e. Don't say uconn was 100% to win the game) I will then show you the entire EV equation from both viewpoints and how the hedge was wrong.

Have some time to kill and look forward to it.

I already said it should have been a pickem, about as close to 50-50 as you can get.

I TRIED to bet on Uconn but the stupid bookie my friend uses doesn't take parlays.

So in this case, considering I was personally wanting to bet on Uconn, I think they had maybe a 50-55% chance of winning. Just my personal opinion. I felt getting 3 points that Uconn was about a 60% chance to either win or lose by 3 or less.

I didn't bet Uconn because I felt the UNDER has a slightly better chance at happening, which it did my a lot.

And no, I never said I was soooooooo good at gambling that I will have my own island. But in the 15 years I have gambled on sports, mainly NFL with some college football, plus over/unders on college basketball, I am up thousands. Hard to know exactly how far up I am, but in those 15 years it is at least 25-30 grand.

I don't bet on every ####### game. Some weeks in the NFL nothing looks good. Same with the other sports, some weeks or even months nothing looks good. Some weeks a few things look good.

To figure out what I am going to bet, I look at the schedule and make my own personal "lines". Then I check the lines on the website I use and bet the games that are far off what my own projections are. This has been quite successful for me, for a long period of time.

The key to winning, obviously, is being able to pick winners. But you have to pick them at a good enough percentage relative to the lines the sportsbook is giving you.

Here is a question for YOU now.......if Cyclone really felt Uconn was going to win this game, what would you have thought about him betting about 7 grand on the moneyline at +135 (enough so that if Kentucky won, he would at least get back the original 700 he bet)...................SO if uconn won he would get around 9 grand, and if Kentucky won he would have been up like 300 bucks.

If you say that "the math" makes that a bad decision because the Kentucky moneyline was -140, I probably will laugh so hard I piss myself.

So you're up all of these thousands in your sports betting lifetime, but you have to go through a friend's bookie, and you can't even get a moneyline wager in or one of your patented parlays with him? All of the other guys cut you off, I guess.

Again, the UK future is totally independent of his UConn bet in the "really liking them"-scenario......if he really felt that UConn was going to win the game, he should absolutely Kelly bet what his bankroll allows him to after he has calculated his edge on the UConn ML play.....UK FUTURE BE DARNED - THEY ARE SEPARATE WAGERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

"50/50"? C'mon man, you're honestly going to tell me that you have that big of an edge on arguably the most wagered upon single championship game in all of American sports besides the Super Bowl? Of course that hedge will be more +EV than holding pat on the futures ticket due to the fact that every single leg of the equation will be off the charts +EV. In which case, you wouldn't even have a hedge, you'd have two really good, independent bets. If you really felt that way and truly knew what you were doing, you should have been on a plane to Vegas placing pretty large wagers on UConn (given your bankroll). I said to be realistic with it.

I like that you couldn't resist

 

[DrJ]

Because it can be used to illustrate these mathematical concepts.

I suppose it CAN be........................but you gotta make sure you actually use them right.

DO everyone a favor. Stop talking about poker

How about you do everyone a favor and stop posting. You have no idea how to apply these concepts and every time you try it's a big circle jerk that just makes discussion between people that do get it more difficult to follow.

 

[ghostguy123]

It's always a losing strategy. Once you make a futures bet that's it, bet is made money is gone. Any bet you make after that is completely independent of your previously placed future bet.

The only time you should ever "hedge" a wager is if you overbet. Lots of posts in this thread that point out from an EV standpoint hedging is never correct.

It's definitely a concept I struggled with and still struggle with(I wanted to guarantee some profit on my 50-1 wisconsin bet) It's tempting to "lock in" that profit but it's never the right decision.

Or, now hear me out............OR if you make the bet thinking the line will change drastically before any games are player, or after 1-2 games are played.

Say for example you REALLY feel the Chargers are underrated this year by a LOT, and you see them at 100-1 to win the super bowl. But you feel that by the time week 1 rolls around they will be closer to 50-1, and then when they play well they are closer to 15-1 or 20-1.

In your wisconsin case, what if they run up against a team you think is going to beat them...........................a team you didnt anticipate them playing.................every situation is unique

 

[QuizGuy66]

Some folks in here need to read up on the idea of Utility.

Risk Theory is it's own field of study, 'tis true.

-QG

 

[ghostguy123]

How about you do everyone a favor and stop posting. You have no idea how to apply these concepts and every time you try it's a big circle jerk that just makes discussion between people that do get it more difficult to follow.

Thing is, I DO get it. I get EXACTLY what your equations say.

You have to use them properly though, which would be happening IF Kentucky for certain had a 59% chance to win.

MUCH of the money I have made betting on sports uses all these equations and examples being thrown out.

Last nights game did not represent a -EV play for Cyclones unless you are assuming an actual probability of 59% for Kentucky to win.

Question for you. What would the line be if Kentucky and Uconn played again tomorrow? Will it be different?

Another question. If I play roulette and black comes up 30 times in a row, will the casino change the payouts?

 

[ghostguy123]

Hopefully we can re-hash all this wonderful dialogue when football season starts again. Hell, maybe this thread will continue to go strong all the way till September.

I will be happy to share a few of my awesome "halftime hedges" for you. I usually have 2-3 of them per month. Can't wait to show you my incredible money losing strategy on those

Only future bet I see maybe worthwhile at the moment is the odds for Seattle (+275) or San Fran (+350) to win the NFC.

I have a feeling it will be one of those teams, and at those odds the payout is 3:2 if you bet on both of them (betting slightly more on Seattle). For example betting like 110 on Seattle and 90 on San Fran. Something close to that, don't feel like figuring out right now.

Sucks they are both in the same division and can't both get homefield games...............but didnt matter last year, and I thiink they are both easily good enough to win road games.

 

[DrJ]

How about you do everyone a favor and stop posting. You have no idea how to apply these concepts and every time you try it's a big circle jerk that just makes discussion between people that do get it more difficult to follow.

Thing is, I DO get it. I get EXACTLY what your equations say.

You have to use them properly though, which would be happening IF Kentucky for certain had a 59% chance to win.

MUCH of the money I have made betting on sports uses all these equations and examples being thrown out.

Last nights game did not represent a -EV play for Cyclones unless you are assuming an actual probability of 59% for Kentucky to win.

Question for you. What would the line be if Kentucky and Uconn played again tomorrow? Will it be different?

Another question. If I play roulette and black comes up 30 times in a row, will the casino change the payouts?

The concepts hold up no matter what probability you assign to Kentucky winning. And they will hold up no matter what the line would be tomorrow.

 

[Cliff Clavin]

The only time you should ever "hedge" a wager is if you overbet.

You put $5 on a 10 team parlay that will pay out $250K. Only game left that you need is the Bucks to win @MIA. You aren't going to hedge on that?

 

[DrJ]

The only time you should ever "hedge" a wager is if you overbet.

You put $5 on a 10 team parlay that will pay out $250K. Only game left that you need is the Bucks to win @MIA. You aren't going to hedge on that?

Why did you place such a high variance bet if you're looking to sacrifice equity as soon as part of it hits?

 

[ghostguy123]

The concepts hold up no matter what probability you assign to Kentucky winning. And they will hold up no matter what the line would be tomorrow.

So if kentucky has a 30% chance of winning........................and the Uconn moneyline is +135..................................

lol

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

The only time you should ever "hedge" a wager is if you overbet.

You put $5 on a 10 team parlay that will pay out $250K. Only game left that you need is the Bucks to win @MIA. You aren't going to hedge on that?

Why did you place such a high variance bet if you're looking to sacrifice equity as soon as part of it hits?

at "as soon as part of it hits" after hitting 9 of 10.

 

[lumpy19]

The only time you should ever "hedge" a wager is if you overbet.

You put $5 on a 10 team parlay that will pay out $250K. Only game left that you need is the Bucks to win @MIA. You aren't going to hedge on that?

nope....if it loses i lose $5, I can handle losing $5

ETA: I'd never make a wager like this in the first place

 

[ghostguy123]

The only time you should ever "hedge" a wager is if you overbet.

You put $5 on a 10 team parlay that will pay out $250K. Only game left that you need is the Bucks to win @MIA. You aren't going to hedge on that?

Excellent point.

Say you did a 10 team parlay with a bunch of underdogs and it all comes down to the final game where the spread is 3 or whatever, and you have the favorite.

It is somehow putting your tail between your legs or you somehow overbet your bankroll because you wanna hedge that? lol

 

[ghostguy123]

The only time you should ever "hedge" a wager is if you overbet.

You put $5 on a 10 team parlay that will pay out $250K. Only game left that you need is the Bucks to win @MIA. You aren't going to hedge on that?

Why did you place such a high variance bet if you're looking to sacrifice equity as soon as part of it hits?

it's a 5 dollar bet......................pretty much for fun.

What is WRONG with you?

 

[ghostguy123]

The only time you should ever "hedge" a wager is if you overbet.

You put $5 on a 10 team parlay that will pay out $250K. Only game left that you need is the Bucks to win @MIA. You aren't going to hedge on that?

nope....if it loses i lose $5, I can handle losing $5

ETA: I'd never make a wager like this in the first place

lol

at that point you didnt lose 5 bucks. You just bet about 125 grand on one game.

Your lack of hedge at that point in time is no different than making a MONSTER 125 grand bet on that game.

 

[ghostguy123]

So lumpy, lets say you were drunk one night and on your betting site you made that bet for the hell of it for 5 bucks.

Come the next night at 10pm the game will be on, and you hit the first 9.

You are telling me you will just ride that out cause you are ok losing 5 bucks??

I can't even believe anyone in the world could possibly have that thought process, and not realize from that moment on after the 9th bet hits, you are NOT losing 5 bucks anymore. Things are now DIFFERENT.

You are now betting 125 grand on a ####### basketball game.

-EV be damned on that one.

 

[Cliff Clavin]

The only time you should ever "hedge" a wager is if you overbet.

You put $5 on a 10 team parlay that will pay out $250K. Only game left that you need is the Bucks to win @MIA. You aren't going to hedge on that?

nope....if it loses i lose $5, I can handle losing $5

ETA: I'd never make a wager like this in the first place

So you'd pass up a chance to profit $100K+ because you'd "only lose $5"? What about all the potential profit you lose by not betting it?

 

[[icon]]

At this point I'm convinced the EVslaves™ are trolling this thread.

 

[ghostguy123]

The only time you should ever "hedge" a wager is if you overbet.

You put $5 on a 10 team parlay that will pay out $250K. Only game left that you need is the Bucks to win @MIA. You aren't going to hedge on that?

nope....if it loses i lose $5, I can handle losing $5

ETA: I'd never make a wager like this in the first place

So you'd pass up a chance to profit $100K+ because you'd "only lose $5"? What about all the potential profit you lose by not betting it?

-EV man, -EV

because it's every day you hit 9 out of 10 on a parlay with the last game yet to come, lol.

 

[RUSF18]

Allow me...

 

[lumpy19]

The only time you should ever "hedge" a wager is if you overbet.

You put $5 on a 10 team parlay that will pay out $250K. Only game left that you need is the Bucks to win @MIA. You aren't going to hedge on that?

nope....if it loses i lose $5, I can handle losing $5

ETA: I'd never make a wager like this in the first place

So you'd pass up a chance to profit $100K+ because you'd "only lose $5"? What about all the potential profit you lose by not betting it?

Forgetting the ridiculousness of this scenario

1. Where would I wager 100k on anything? I guess if it was a MNF game I'd have 1 option available to me that would accept a 100k wager(bookmaker.eu)

2. I don't keep 100k in my bookmaker.eu account and it's not easy to move that kind of money

3. 250k isn't life changing for me....bump it to a million in this fantasy scenario and i'd probably try to lock in 500k

4. sweating a game where i could win 250k would be quite exciting

 

[QuizGuy66]

Anyone want to book a O/U bet on the number of pages this drags on with no consensus being reached on what was the right play?

will you hedge when it gets close to the set number of pages?

-QG

 

[Cliff Clavin]

The only time you should ever "hedge" a wager is if you overbet.

You put $5 on a 10 team parlay that will pay out $250K. Only game left that you need is the Bucks to win @MIA. You aren't going to hedge on that?

nope....if it loses i lose $5, I can handle losing $5

ETA: I'd never make a wager like this in the first place

So you'd pass up a chance to profit $100K+ because you'd "only lose $5"? What about all the potential profit you lose by not betting it?

Forgetting the ridiculousness of this scenario

1. Where would I wager 100k on anything? I guess if it was a MNF game I'd have 1 option available to me that would accept a 100k wager(bookmaker.eu)

2. I don't keep 100k in my bookmaker.eu account and it's not easy to move that kind of money

3. 250k isn't life changing for me....bump it to a million in this fantasy scenario and i'd probably try to lock in 500k

4. sweating a game where i could win 250k would be quite exciting

It is a hypothetical. Any long shot bet that has a significant payout which you can hedge against.

Vegas books don't accept that kind of money? Call me crazy, but I'd be hoping the next flight to Vegas to get a bet down. Maybe I'm just that poor but 100K+ would be worth the effort over "just losing $5".

So really, the only reason you're giving not to hedge is because 100K+ isn't worth it to you.

 

[DrJ]

The only time you should ever "hedge" a wager is if you overbet.

You put $5 on a 10 team parlay that will pay out $250K. Only game left that you need is the Bucks to win @MIA. You aren't going to hedge on that?

nope....if it loses i lose $5, I can handle losing $5

ETA: I'd never make a wager like this in the first place

So you'd pass up a chance to profit $100K+ because you'd "only lose $5"? What about all the potential profit you lose by not betting it?

Forgetting the ridiculousness of this scenario

1. Where would I wager 100k on anything? I guess if it was a MNF game I'd have 1 option available to me that would accept a 100k wager(bookmaker.eu)

2. I don't keep 100k in my bookmaker.eu account and it's not easy to move that kind of money

3. 250k isn't life changing for me....bump it to a million in this fantasy scenario and i'd probably try to lock in 500k

4. sweating a game where i could win 250k would be quite exciting

It is a hypothetical. Any long shot bet that has a significant payout which you can hedge against.

Vegas books don't accept that kind of money? Call me crazy, but I'd be hoping the next flight to Vegas to get a bet down. Maybe I'm just that poor but 100K+ would be worth the effort over "just losing $5".

So really, the only reason you're giving not to hedge is because 100K+ isn't worth it to you.

Sure, a very ridiculous hypothetical that has little bearing on the situation at hand. I didn't even bother signing up for Warren Buffet's pool as the time it would take to fill out the bracket compared to the odds of winning made it -EV. I probably would have had a higher EV setting up a lemonade stand in my front yard with my time. You guys keep presenting stupid situations that a successful gambler would never find themselves in - that's why they're successful gamblers and people like you aren't.

 

[Cliff Clavin]

The only time you should ever "hedge" a wager is if you overbet.

You put $5 on a 10 team parlay that will pay out $250K. Only game left that you need is the Bucks to win @MIA. You aren't going to hedge on that?

nope....if it loses i lose $5, I can handle losing $5

ETA: I'd never make a wager like this in the first place

So you'd pass up a chance to profit $100K+ because you'd "only lose $5"? What about all the potential profit you lose by not betting it?

Forgetting the ridiculousness of this scenario

1. Where would I wager 100k on anything? I guess if it was a MNF game I'd have 1 option available to me that would accept a 100k wager(bookmaker.eu)

2. I don't keep 100k in my bookmaker.eu account and it's not easy to move that kind of money

3. 250k isn't life changing for me....bump it to a million in this fantasy scenario and i'd probably try to lock in 500k

4. sweating a game where i could win 250k would be quite exciting

It is a hypothetical. Any long shot bet that has a significant payout which you can hedge against.

Vegas books don't accept that kind of money? Call me crazy, but I'd be hoping the next flight to Vegas to get a bet down. Maybe I'm just that poor but 100K+ would be worth the effort over "just losing $5".

So really, the only reason you're giving not to hedge is because 100K+ isn't worth it to you.

Sure, a very ridiculous hypothetical that has little bearing on the situation at hand. I didn't even bother signing up for Warren Buffet's pool as the time it would take to fill out the bracket compared to the odds of winning made it -EV. I probably would have had a higher EV setting up a lemonade stand in my front yard with my time. You guys keep presenting stupid situations that a successful gambler would never find themselves in - that's why they're successful gamblers and people like you aren't.

Try to keep up.

 

[ghostguy123]

Sure, a very ridiculous hypothetical that has little bearing on the situation at hand. I didn't even bother signing up for Warren Buffet's pool as the time it would take to fill out the bracket compared to the odds of winning made it -EV. I probably would have had a higher EV setting up a lemonade stand in my front yard with my time. You guys keep presenting stupid situations that a successful gambler would never find themselves in - that's why they're successful gamblers and people like you aren't.

Speak for yourself

 

[DrJ]

The only time you should ever "hedge" a wager is if you overbet.

You put $5 on a 10 team parlay that will pay out $250K. Only game left that you need is the Bucks to win @MIA. You aren't going to hedge on that?

nope....if it loses i lose $5, I can handle losing $5

ETA: I'd never make a wager like this in the first place

So you'd pass up a chance to profit $100K+ because you'd "only lose $5"? What about all the potential profit you lose by not betting it?

Forgetting the ridiculousness of this scenario

1. Where would I wager 100k on anything? I guess if it was a MNF game I'd have 1 option available to me that would accept a 100k wager(bookmaker.eu)

2. I don't keep 100k in my bookmaker.eu account and it's not easy to move that kind of money

3. 250k isn't life changing for me....bump it to a million in this fantasy scenario and i'd probably try to lock in 500k

4. sweating a game where i could win 250k would be quite exciting

It is a hypothetical. Any long shot bet that has a significant payout which you can hedge against.

Vegas books don't accept that kind of money? Call me crazy, but I'd be hoping the next flight to Vegas to get a bet down. Maybe I'm just that poor but 100K+ would be worth the effort over "just losing $5".

So really, the only reason you're giving not to hedge is because 100K+ isn't worth it to you.

Sure, a very ridiculous hypothetical that has little bearing on the situation at hand. I didn't even bother signing up for Warren Buffet's pool as the time it would take to fill out the bracket compared to the odds of winning made it -EV. I probably would have had a higher EV setting up a lemonade stand in my front yard with my time. You guys keep presenting stupid situations that a successful gambler would never find themselves in - that's why they're successful gamblers and people like you aren't.

Try to keep up.

Why?

 

[ghostguy123]

Oh yeah, hey Cyclones.............nice win

 

[ghostguy123]

Why?

Try to keep up.

Hmmmm. Before this past tournament, I could see you saying that CYCLONE's situation would have been a "ridiculous hypothetical".

"yeah right, who gets a team at 40-1 and their opponent is +135 in the championship game, no way dude, no way"

 

[Sarnoff]

We seriously need an :unblockdot: thing around here

 

[ghostguy123]

..............................and I just read the last couple pages of the "I got promoted" thread. ..............................what the F??

 

[DrJ]

Why?

Try to keep up.

Hmmmm. Before this past tournament, I could see you saying that CYCLONE's situation would have been a "ridiculous hypothetical".

"yeah right, who gets a team at 40-1 and their opponent is +135 in the championship game, no way dude, no way"

And then back to the results based analysis. It's like a big circle jerk where you just keep making yourself look dumber and dumber.

 

[ghostguy123]

Why?

Try to keep up.

Hmmmm. Before this past tournament, I could see you saying that CYCLONE's situation would have been a "ridiculous hypothetical".

"yeah right, who gets a team at 40-1 and their opponent is +135 in the championship game, no way dude, no way"

And then back to the results based analysis. It's like a big circle jerk where you just keep making yourself look dumber and dumber.

how is that results based analysis??? That was his situation BEFORE the results, ya know, the situation we were TALKING ABOUT

 

[DrJ]

The only time you should ever "hedge" a wager is if you overbet.

You put $5 on a 10 team parlay that will pay out $250K. Only game left that you need is the Bucks to win @MIA. You aren't going to hedge on that?

Why did you place such a high variance bet if you're looking to sacrifice equity as soon as part of it hits?

at "as soon as part of it hits" after hitting 9 of 10.

Again - why did you make this bet to begin with? And why didn't you start hedging after the 4th or 5th bet hit and you started to have large sums of money on the table? Nothing about this stupid strategy makes any sense.

 

[ghostguy123]

Again - why did you make this bet to begin with? And why didn't you start hedging after the 4th or 5th bet hit and you started to have large sums of money on the table? Nothing about this stupid strategy makes any sense.

It's not a strategy, it's a random 5 dollar "what the hell" bet, and holy ####!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I can win like 110 grand on a hedge

Plus chances are 9 of those games were on the same day, and the 10th was a monday nighter or the next day or some crap. The kind of bet where you have time to go to vegas if you need to to hedge

 

[DrJ]

Why?

Try to keep up.

Hmmmm. Before this past tournament, I could see you saying that CYCLONE's situation would have been a "ridiculous hypothetical".

"yeah right, who gets a team at 40-1 and their opponent is +135 in the championship game, no way dude, no way"

And then back to the results based analysis. It's like a big circle jerk where you just keep making yourself look dumber and dumber.

how is that results based analysis??? That was his situation BEFORE the results, ya know, the situation we were TALKING ABOUT

Because you're using known results to try and justify poor gambling strategy. Lots of things can happen in a sample size of 1 - that's called variance, a concept you still don't understand.

 

[DrJ]

Again - why did you make this bet to begin with? And why didn't you start hedging after the 4th or 5th bet hit and you started to have large sums of money on the table? Nothing about this stupid strategy makes any sense.

It's not a strategy, it's a random 5 dollar "what the hell" bet, and holy ####!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I can win like 110 grand on a hedge

Plus chances are 9 of those games were on the same day, and the 10th was a monday nighter or the next day or some crap. The kind of bet where you have time to go to vegas if you need to to hedge

So it was a stupid bet, much like the original one Cyclones made. And like I've noted, there's plenty of times including the one presented in this post where a hedge is less stupid than the original bet itself.

 

[parasaurolophus]

The only time you should ever "hedge" a wager is if you overbet.

You put $5 on a 10 team parlay that will pay out $250K. Only game left that you need is the Bucks to win @MIA. You aren't going to hedge on that?

Why did you place such a high variance bet if you're looking to sacrifice equity as soon as part of it hits?

I understand what you guys are saying here. If the payout is so necessary to bank prematurely, then you bet too big. This isn't 100% though. It is possible to make a bet like the OP that is not outside your bankroll.

If you have a 5k bankroll and come across a 40-1 futures bet that you think has a 10% chance of hitting, 200 bucks is not too big of a bet. Futures opportunities like this are finite. It could literally never happen again. If you get to where you are in the championship game you are basically making what equates to a 4k bet. That is too big of a bet now to make with a 5k bankroll (especially if you think the game is nothing more than a coinflip).