Gambling Lines and Fantasy Football (1 Viewer)

[bshell27]

A thought just popped into my head and if anyone has looked at the validity of this claim?

The claim is playing FF players who are determined by Vegas to be in the highest scoring/lowest scoring games. This is obviously WAY down the list of consideration, which is also something I have never looked at, but historically does this carry any weight?

 

[SuperJohn96]

A thought just popped into my head and if anyone has looked at the validity of this claim? The claim is playing FF players who are determined by Vegas to be in the highest scoring/lowest scoring games. This is obviously WAY down the list of consideration, which is also something I have never looked at, but historically does this carry any weight?

This sounds like a worthy idea for somebody with time to research...I too am intrigued by this thought.

 

[harryhood]

Lot of guys around here have recently stated they use Vegas O/U's to determine TD/SP if they cant decide between the two. I like the notion

 

[Englishteacher]

As good as David and Joe are I think Vegas is probably better.

 

[SuperJohn96]

As good as David and Joe are I think Vegas is probably better.

Plus you won't have to wait until Tuesday Morning um Tuesday Afternoon wait Wednesday Morning no it's Wednesday Afternoon for the info.

 

[Tanner9919]

Lot of guys around here have recently stated they use Vegas O/U's to determine TD/SP if they cant decide between the two. I like the notion

I"m guilty of it..if given the choice between two players, one in a game where the Vegas O/U is 34 or one in a game where the O/U is 51, I'm going with the player in the the game with the higher O/U.the way I see it , if Vegas expects a high scoring affair, then so should I.. It just means a team in a game with a higher O/U is more likely to score TDs ( or FG's for that matter). players in those games are more likely to catch more passes for more yards and kickers *should* score more pts than in games with low O/U's..Given the fact that Vegas is almost always dead-on with their O/U lines in that the final score is usually very,very close to the number...a 34 O/U just means either it's a matchup of two totally inept teams ( i.e., offensively-challenged) or two very good defensive teams battling it out for every inch or every yard..the opposite is true: a 51 over implies either two good offenses going against each other ( see N.O. vs. GB a few weeks ago), or a superb team is going against a 'lesser' team, i.e., N.O. vs Cincy..

 

[Ridgelake]

Vegas has a WHOLE lot more riding on the success of their predictions than any FF site. They are the best forecaster that I know of. Take that for what its worth.

 

[puckalicious]

Ok let me see if I get this. If I'm deciding between Rodgers and Cassel, the betting line would suggest Cassel?

NE -9, 45 total

GB +4.5, 42 total

This roughly means NE should "score" 27 and GB should "score" 19. Meaning Cassel has better odds at more fantasy points?

I would REALLY love to see a summary for every game this season to see what the comparison is for each position. Fantasy point rank vs. betting line rank.

 

[Modog814]

Ok let me see if I get this. If I'm deciding between Rodgers and Cassel, the betting line would suggest Cassel?NE -9, 45 totalGB +4.5, 42 totalThis roughly means NE should "score" 27 and GB should "score" 19. Meaning Cassel has better odds at more fantasy points?I would REALLY love to see a summary for every game this season to see what the comparison is for each position. Fantasy point rank vs. betting line rank.

Wouldn't you have to take into account that since NE is 9 point favorites they are more likely to have a larger lead and thus more likely to pass less?

 

[puckalicious]

Ok let me see if I get this. If I'm deciding between Rodgers and Cassel, the betting line would suggest Cassel?NE -9, 45 totalGB +4.5, 42 totalThis roughly means NE should "score" 27 and GB should "score" 19. Meaning Cassel has better odds at more fantasy points?I would REALLY love to see a summary for every game this season to see what the comparison is for each position. Fantasy point rank vs. betting line rank.

Wouldn't you have to take into account that since NE is 9 point favorites they are more likely to have a larger lead and thus more likely to pass less?

Well they have to get the lead somehow... and I lean toward those points coming from the passing game over the running game.

 

[george]

I've used it in the past to pick kickers. Use it now to help set my NFL pool picks confidence numbers.

 

[Ridgelake]

Puck, you've got the right idea that you can infer a Vegas-predicted score from the O/U plus the betting line. But the issue becomes sorting out who scores the points for each team. For pass-heavy teams line Ari and NE, that likely falls to the QBs though.

 

[Modog814]

Ok let me see if I get this. If I'm deciding between Rodgers and Cassel, the betting line would suggest Cassel?NE -9, 45 totalGB +4.5, 42 totalThis roughly means NE should "score" 27 and GB should "score" 19. Meaning Cassel has better odds at more fantasy points?I would REALLY love to see a summary for every game this season to see what the comparison is for each position. Fantasy point rank vs. betting line rank.

Wouldn't you have to take into account that since NE is 9 point favorites they are more likely to have a larger lead and thus more likely to pass less?

Well they have to get the lead somehow... and I lean toward those points coming from the passing game over the running game.

Yes, but whose more likely to put up more passing yards a team thats up by 9 or a team thats down by 4?

 

[puckalicious]

Ok let me see if I get this. If I'm deciding between Rodgers and Cassel, the betting line would suggest Cassel?NE -9, 45 totalGB +4.5, 42 totalThis roughly means NE should "score" 27 and GB should "score" 19. Meaning Cassel has better odds at more fantasy points?I would REALLY love to see a summary for every game this season to see what the comparison is for each position. Fantasy point rank vs. betting line rank.

Wouldn't you have to take into account that since NE is 9 point favorites they are more likely to have a larger lead and thus more likely to pass less?

Well they have to get the lead somehow... and I lean toward those points coming from the passing game over the running game.

Yes, but whose more likely to put up more passing yards a team thats up by 9 or a team thats down by 4?

Like I said, they have to get the lead somehow. It's not like Cassel is on the bench, and then they magically get up by 2 scores and then he comes in to hand it off every play. This is classic overthinking. The other week IND played CIN. Everyone knew it would be a blowout. Does this mean you should sit Peyton? By your logic you would since they got a huge lead.... seriously, how do you think they got there? On teams like IND, NE, and ARI it's a pretty safe bet their scoring comes through the air more than on the ground. Unless they're playing DET where teams can just run on them all day! Although Peyton had 277/3 vs CIN and 318/1 vs DET, so really both games were great starts for Peyton.

 

[bshell27]

OK, I hate to admit this but can anyone provide me with a source for odds? I do not gamble on NFL games and never have looked at the spread of the games before?

 

[harryhood]

covers.com is what i use.....but i dont gamble

 

[Modog814]

Like I said, they have to get the lead somehow. It's not like Cassel is on the bench, and then they magically get up by 2 scores and then he comes in to hand it off every play. This is classic overthinking.

The other week IND played CIN. Everyone knew it would be a blowout. Does this mean you should sit Peyton? By your logic you would since they got a huge lead.... seriously, how do you think they got there? On teams like IND, NE, and ARI it's a pretty safe bet their scoring comes through the air more than on the ground.

Unless they're playing DET where teams can just run on them all day! Although Peyton had 277/3 vs CIN and 318/1 vs DET, so really both games were great starts for Peyton.

Relax man, I'm not saying one way or the other. All I was saying was that if someone is going to consider O/U why not consider the actual line too. I did not say oh NE favored by 9 no way do you start Cassel over Rodgers. A huge lead does not necessarily come from a passing game. To use your own Detriot Example, they had a 21-10 lead at halftime with 170 yards passing and a td, not bad, but with that lead he only threw for 29 yards in the 3rd quarter. It wasn't until Detriot tied it up at 21 that he put up another 114 yards, it was looking like it was going to be a pretty sub-par day for manning until Detriot tied it up. On the bolded part is where you're getting off track (you're not wrong btw) but now you're not longer talking about Gambling lines your talking about your preconceptions about an offense.

What I'm saying is your comparing Cassel to Rodgers. Yes, I understand that Cassel isn't on the bench and they magically get up by 2 scores and then start handing the ball off every play. I didn't say that they did. I'm saying, you're looking at an O/U difference between the 2 games of 3 points. You expect Ne to be up by about a TD late 3rd early 4th quarter and GB to be down by a TD, FG or maybe even tied at the same point. Its conceivable to think that Rodgers and Cassel probably have similar passing numbers to that point (maybe Cassel is slightly ahead), who would you rather have, the QB that needs to push his team down the field and put up another score, or the QB that simply needs to take time off the clock?

Now if you think Cassel's numbers are going to be so far ahead of Rodgers at this point that Rodgers probably isn't going to catch up that's one thing, and it's fine, like I said I'm not taking one side of the other. I'm simply stating that the line could be used as a tool as much as O/U could.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

OK, I hate to admit this but can anyone provide me with a source for odds? I do not gamble on NFL games and never have looked at the spread of the games before?

VegasInsider.com

 

[wadegarrett]

I use the O/U all the time when deciding on WDIS.

 

[puckalicious]

OK, I hate to admit this but can anyone provide me with a source for odds? I do not gamble on NFL games and never have looked at the spread of the games before?

I'm by no means an expert, but USA Today has a pretty good summary from multiple sources for all major sports.

Like I said, they have to get the lead somehow. It's not like Cassel is on the bench, and then they magically get up by 2 scores and then he comes in to hand it off every play. This is classic overthinking.

The other week IND played CIN. Everyone knew it would be a blowout. Does this mean you should sit Peyton? By your logic you would since they got a huge lead.... seriously, how do you think they got there? On teams like IND, NE, and ARI it's a pretty safe bet their scoring comes through the air more than on the ground.

Unless they're playing DET where teams can just run on them all day! Although Peyton had 277/3 vs CIN and 318/1 vs DET, so really both games were great starts for Peyton.

Relax man, I'm not saying one way or the other. All I was saying was that if someone is going to consider O/U why not consider the actual line too. I did not say oh NE favored by 9 no way do you start Cassel over Rodgers. A huge lead does not necessarily come from a passing game. To use your own Detriot Example, they had a 21-10 lead at halftime with 170 yards passing and a td, not bad, but with that lead he only threw for 29 yards in the 3rd quarter. It wasn't until Detriot tied it up at 21 that he put up another 114 yards, it was looking like it was going to be a pretty sub-par day for manning until Detriot tied it up. On the bolded part is where you're getting off track (you're not wrong btw) but now you're not longer talking about Gambling lines your talking about your preconceptions about an offense.

What I'm saying is your comparing Cassel to Rodgers. Yes, I understand that Cassel isn't on the bench and they magically get up by 2 scores and then start handing the ball off every play. I didn't say that they did. I'm saying, you're looking at an O/U difference between the 2 games of 3 points. You expect Ne to be up by about a TD late 3rd early 4th quarter and GB to be down by a TD, FG or maybe even tied at the same point. Its conceivable to think that Rodgers and Cassel probably have similar passing numbers to that point (maybe Cassel is slightly ahead), who would you rather have, the QB that needs to push his team down the field and put up another score, or the QB that simply needs to take time off the clock?

Now if you think Cassel's numbers are going to be so far ahead of Rodgers at this point that Rodgers probably isn't going to catch up that's one thing, and it's fine, like I said I'm not taking one side of the other. I'm simply stating that the line could be used as a tool as much as O/U could.

I'm looking at the o/u AND the line to show what Vegas says is the final score, so I've already taken that into account.I understand your point, but I would still rather have the guy that already has the points than the guy that is chasing points and has a good chance at turning the ball over. The premise is that the Vegas prediction is right, and based on this NE will score 3 TDs, and GB will score 2. Both QB's have equal chances at passing for scores (IMO) so Cassel has a bigger pool of points to draw from.

 

[SuperJohn96]

Arg...I can't believe I never thought of, or came across this before.

Instead I find out after I've been eliminated.

Oh well...another tool in my toolbox (for next year).

 

[Modog814]

I'm looking at the o/u AND the line to show what Vegas says is the final score, so I've already taken that into account.I understand your point, but I would still rather have the guy that already has the points than the guy that is chasing points and has a good chance at turning the ball over. The premise is that the Vegas prediction is right, and based on this NE will score 3 TDs, and GB will score 2. Both QB's have equal chances at passing for scores (IMO) so Cassel has a bigger pool of points to draw from.

Ok, I get what you're saying. I agree that Cassel has a bigger pool of points to draw from, but disagree that he's going to get a large enough share to offset Rodgers who (IMO) is certain to get a larger share but from a smaller pool. Nothing wrong with a little disagreement.

 

[videoguy505]

I absolutely do this for making a close decision between defenses. Take the spread and the O/U to figure out what Vegas' expected points are, and then take the team facing the lowest-scoring opponent. I think I said this was my method this week in the "Week 16 D" thread.

FWIW, rumor has it that Dodds uses Vegas' lines as a small part of his projections system. His total points scored are usually within 1.5 points of Vegas' estimate.

 

[puckalicious]

I absolutely do this for making a close decision between defenses. Take the spread and the O/U to figure out what Vegas' expected points are, and then take the team facing the lowest-scoring opponent. I think I said this was my method this week in the "Week 16 D" thread.FWIW, rumor has it that Dodds uses Vegas' lines as a small part of his projections system. His total points scored are usually within 1.5 points of Vegas' estimate.

This doesn't help too much in my scoring system. A difference of 10 pts scored against is only a couple points. Turnovers and TD's are main component for me which is not reflected at all in the odds.I think this could be a great tool for kickers, and to a lesser degree QB's/WR's and RB's. A system will need to be developed for predicting passing vs. rushing scores for a given team. I'm sure FBG's projections are pretty good at this already but it would be great if they included a "% likely to over/under perform" metric. For instance projections for Brees or Warner have been conservative all year and would contain a "% likely to overperform" value.

 

[Captain Spaulding]

Just wondering...does the Vegas over/under change drastically from beginning of week to the end? Like if a key player is found to be out of the game later in the week...or the weather forecast changes drastically as gameday approaches? Should you wait until Saturday or Sunday morning before analyzing the over/under?

 

[Modog814]

Just wondering...does the Vegas over/under change drastically from beginning of week to the end? Like if a key player is found to be out of the game later in the week...or the weather forecast changes drastically as gameday approaches? Should you wait until Saturday or Sunday morning before analyzing the over/under?

At my sportsbook with the high winds in the SD/KC game this past weekend, the O/U dropped from about 41.5(Maybe 42 I forget) down to about 38.5. The forecasts called for wind earlier in the week but IIRC the line didn't really drop until saturday morning