Game Theory the Covid 19 short and long term effects (1 Viewer)

[tommyboy]

Collectively this is a thread to look at the Covid 19 via Game Theory (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_theory)

for our purposes we are basically looking at the reality as of today and trying to extrapolate the short and long term effects on society, our lives and our systems using logical inference and observations, combined with historical systems of human behavior.

So i will start.   As I am working at home today and for the next several weeks, one observation is that as companies send employees home to continue working remotely we will use less energy, spend less time travelling and be 80-90% productive compared to normal working environments.   This will reduce demand for energy products, increase demand for technology and keep a larger share of the population of the US out of the virus spreading public (significant reduction in exposure potential).

My goal is to produce a coherent long term and short term set of predictions that will help ALL of us navigate the stormy waters in front of us

 

[Mr Anonymous]

I gotta believe Pay Per View and streaming services like Netflix and going to see revenues soar in the near term.

 

[tommyboy]

Dudes, put some thought into this please, it will help all of us to prepare for the worst

 

[Tool]

Retail stores in cities already crushed by Amazon.  They'll all be done. Seems like lots of the restaurants/  eateries in cities will be challenged as working clientele will be gone; on the other hand after being inside all day maybe people who live in the city will be more likely to want to go out for dinner and possibly lunch.  Could see need for more upper end grocery stores like whole foods as more white collar folks work from home.  

 

[Gally]

Collectively this is a thread to look at the Covid 19 via Game Theory (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_theory)

for our purposes we are basically looking at the reality as of today and trying to extrapolate the short and long term effects on society, our lives and our systems using logical inference and observations, combined with historical systems of human behavior.

So i will start.   As I am working at home today and for the next several weeks, one observation is that as companies send employees home to continue working remotely we will use less energy, spend less time travelling and be 80-90% productive compared to normal working environments.   This will reduce demand for energy products, increase demand for technology and keep a larger share of the population of the US out of the virus spreading public (significant reduction in exposure potential).

My goal is to produce a coherent long term and short term set of predictions that will help ALL of us navigate the stormy waters in front of us

To piggyback on this a bit, it could/should lead to a big drop in pollution as many commuter cars are off the roads. 

 

[DocHolliday]

To piggyback on this a bit, it could/should lead to a big drop in pollution as many commuter cars are off the roads. 

Less consumption of gasoline takes prices where?   

Restaurants and movie theaters are going to take a beating and many will be closed if folks stay home.   Small businesses of all kinds, such as small clothing stores, music instruments shops, and bars, are not going to make it.  

 

[E-Z Glider]

Short term - everyone seems completely caught off-guard by the short supply / high-demand of testing kits and toilet paper.

Long term - this might be it for the cruise industry. 

 

[tommyboy]

To piggyback on this a bit, it could/should lead to a big drop in pollution as many commuter cars are off the roads. 

Which leads to lower demand for gas and cars which affects demand for all associated industries

 

[Brony]

It will be interesting to watch default on mortgages and credit cards for people that are not salaried.  sad situation.

 

[tommyboy]

Less consumption of gasoline takes prices where?   

Restaurants and movie theaters are going to take a beating and many will be closed if folks stay home.   Small businesses of all kinds, such as small clothing stores, music instruments shops, and bars, are not going to make it.  

I see bars and restaurants as surviving if they change the model. Show up get your drink, leave. Food for delivery or pick up

 

[tommyboy]

It will be interesting to watch default on mortgages and credit cards for people that are not salaried.  sad situation.

Govt intervention on that one

 

[Sinn Fein]

Short-term business opportunity - Tutoring business

Kids will fall behind with a very disruptive semester.

Younger kids will probably need more help with the missing education hours.  But high school kids may need immediate help preparing for things like AP exams, or SAT/ACT tests.

 

[Ilov80s]

I gotta believe Pay Per View and streaming services like Netflix and going to see revenues soar in the near term.

It will be devastating for movie theaters. This could end the theater vs streaming battle for good. There will be less theaters and they will be more niche. 

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I've been waiting for someone to mention season correlation to airborne viruses.  

This 'could' fade during the summer.

Clinical Microbiology and Infection Volume 18, Issue 10, October 2012, Pages 946-954

Seasonality of viral infections: mechanisms and unknowns

Abstract

Seasonality is a long-recognized attribute of many viral infections of humans...

Introduction

The seasonality of infectious diseases is a phenomenon so widespread, and so familiar, that it has worked its way into the English language vernacular. We speak of ‘flu season’ in winter, usually without stopping to wonder why it might be that influenza viruses, which circulate year-round, appear to have a greater reproductive number when it is cold outside [1, 2, 3]. 

Go to the link for the full read but the bottom line is that 'typical' influenza viruses tend to die out during hotter months since they can't reproduce.

We don't know enough about this virus and the numbers simply do not jibe so it 'may' continue longer into the summer months.

I think home garden supplies would be a good investment in the short term and will continue even if this scare evaporates.  

 

[tommyboy]

IF the broadcast television networks survive, which is very much in doubt, the current cycle of annual television will be changed, perhaps permanently. The "Pilot Season" that they've been wanting to move away from for a decade may now be dead by force.

explain?   I see sports programming like ESPN and Fox Sports being hit harder than networks

 

[tommyboy]

Financially, they were barely hanging on before this. How many people still watch commercials? How many people watch within 3 days of the broadcast? Those numbers are way down.

They still have to pay talent as if 20 million people watch a hit show. Instead it's closer to 4 million. Used to be 2 million wasn't enough to save you from being canceled, now, 2 million pairs of eyeballs is a network TV hit.

On top of that:

The Writer's Guild contract expires 5/1. The Screen Actors Guild expires this summer too, either 6/1 or 7/1. They want more $, of course. They want a bigger cut of the streaming revenue, since the last contract was negotiated before Netflix produced more than 2 original series. They're going to want the networks to continue paying top dollar as well.

With production shut down, it might be 6 to 9 months before there are any new episodes even if there is no strike. If there is... a year?

With that much lag between seasons, some shows might just not ever come back due to the increased salaries making them too expensive.

But, since there are ZERO pilots to choose new shows from, there's a big creative gap to fill.

wow, i did not know any of this.  thank you for the info.   Fascinating

 

[stbugs]

Collectively this is a thread to look at the Covid 19 via Game Theory (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_theory)

for our purposes we are basically looking at the reality as of today and trying to extrapolate the short and long term effects on society, our lives and our systems using logical inference and observations, combined with historical systems of human behavior.

So i will start.   As I am working at home today and for the next several weeks, one observation is that as companies send employees home to continue working remotely we will use less energy, spend less time travelling and be 80-90% productive compared to normal working environments.   This will reduce demand for energy products, increase demand for technology and keep a larger share of the population of the US out of the virus spreading public (significant reduction in exposure potential).

My goal is to produce a coherent long term and short term set of predictions that will help ALL of us navigate the stormy waters in front of us

Couldn’t work from home potentially increase energy demands? I don’t know how many people do it but my house is home to my wife and I and it’s much bigger than the office space we would be in during the day. I would absolutely turn down the AC and Heat during the day if we went to work. At the office the square footage per person is way less than at home. That said the travel energy would be much less although again you might end up doing longer errands, i.e. not picking things up on the way home. Honestly, the difference between the two could be modeled based on average commute and home size versus office space, etc.

Also, I don’t think productivity drops as much as people think. I can work all hours don’t have water cooler or out to lunch discussions (biggest drawback IMHO). Yes, some people can’t handle that but honestly if they can’t handle not being supervised are they really contributing much?

Really interesting discussion though because I do think technology/cloud/software/streaming/security/home delivery/etc. companies should see a decent uptick over their future projections before the pandemic. 

 

[shader]

Very interesting thread.  I suspect I may come back tonight after a drink and pontificate.

I think people still struggle to understand what's happening.  School systems closing for 2 weeks is the obvious joke.  

Look, this is a 2-6 month thing.  Many companies are going to go away.  Many people are going to lose everything.  Many people are going to get rich.  The geopolitical ramifications are almost off the chart.  Things that mattered don't anymore. 

Will the power structure of the world be changed?  What about each business niche that's out there?  Who can survive and who can't?

Who is going to buy homes over the next 6 months?  I'm sure it will still happen, but to what degree?  

I really like the idea of this thread.  Thanks for starting it.

 

[Gally]

Very interesting thread.  I suspect I may come back tonight after a drink and pontificate.

I think people still struggle to understand what's happening.  School systems closing for 2 weeks is the obvious joke.  

Look, this is a 2-6 month thing.  Many companies are going to go away.  Many people are going to lose everything.  Many people are going to get rich.  The geopolitical ramifications are almost off the chart.  Things that mattered don't anymore. 

Will the power structure of the world be changed?  What about each business niche that's out there?  Who can survive and who can't?

Who is going to buy homes over the next 6 months?  I'm sure it will still happen, but to what degree?  

I really like the idea of this thread.  Thanks for starting it.

Or is this truly overblown?  I can see both sides.  I am not trying to say one is right or wrong.....just taking the other side for discussion sake. 

Obviously there are ramification that have already started like the stock market but that is person driven and the scare is causing people to panic immediately dropping the market.  It should bounce back over time but the time aspect is yet to be seen.  If this panic is just that - a panic, and nothing real serious develops as far as medical industry overrun etc and it dies down in a few weeks in may be nothing more that a blip and joke in the years to come. 

I think it will fall somewhere in between. 

 

[Capella]

My back-of-the-envelope math says that any show shut down now that does not resume production by 4/6 might as well stay shut down.

Next season's shows will have to be bought by end of May to start production in June to be on the air in September. That assumes everyone is willing to come out of quarantine in six weeks, and neither Guild triggers a strike/work lockout. Every week either of those three things goes past about 5/4... self quarantines, WGA strike, or SAG strike, is a week past about 9/21 that TV shows could return in ideal situations.

However, of the 80+ shows I make, very few are entirely single-city based. We're spread all over Los Angeles, Atlanta, New Orleans, New York, Chicago, North Carolina, New Mexico, Vancouver, Toronto, London, Rome, Romania, New Zealand... shooting a few episodes in one spot then moving to pick up footage in another... 

One of the reasons we're spread so far and wide is that in the era of Peak Streaming, there's hundreds and hundreds of shows in production at the same time, which has led to a major shortage of stage space. Studios are at capacity everywhere. Los Angeles and Vancouver were booked full for next year already.

So we'll need this thing cleared up globally to get the machine operating at top speed again. If just LA and NY, for example, got unstuck from the virus, we'd be able to do a small handful of shows but nowhere close to the output people are used to consuming.

So maybe I can finally get caught up! 
 

j/k man that sucks and I hadn’t thought of it. 

 

[bostonfred]

I bet online poker is sick right now 

 

[moleculo]

 

[Koya]

It will be interesting to watch default on mortgages and credit cards for people that are not salaried.  sad situation.

This software is brutal... Trying to   this.  So true.

Add those without decent insurance. Deductibles alone could sink a family's economic foothold. And cost of hospitalization or even alternative care with no insurance will bankrupt goodness knows how many.

 

[The Duff Man]

The trade show industry is in trouble. A lot of companies have been wondering if trade shows are still worth it. 
 

With many cancelled, when companies see that sales are not negatively impacted they will stop attending in future. 

 

[skycriesmary]

I see bars and restaurants as surviving if they change the model. Show up get your drink, leave. Food for delivery or pick up

I think this could become the majority of revenue for restaurants who are willing to adapt. I already see advertising for those options here in Portland from restaurants you don't think as fast casual, or take out. 

Sadly, I see this taking out a lot of small businesses, both in retail and the food industry.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Postmates, UberEats, DoorDash, Grubhub (a few more)... all deliver food from any restaurant that does takeout and contracts with many that don't. They are in every mid-size city and up. They are in a good position. Here in my small town the options are Postmates, DoorDash, UberEats. I use DoorDasj about weekly, but that may be going up. 

 

[bostonfred]

I think this could become the majority of revenue for restaurants who are willing to adapt. I already see advertising for those options here in Portland from restaurants you don't think as fast casual, or take out. 

Sadly, I see this taking out a lot of small businesses, both in retail and the food industry.

I think a lot of uber/ lyft drivers are going to mostly do uber eats and doordash the next few weeks

 

[Tool]

I think this could become the majority of revenue for restaurants who are willing to adapt. I already see advertising for those options here in Portland from restaurants you don't think as fast casual, or take out. 

Sadly, I see this taking out a lot of small businesses, both in retail and the food industry.

Just throwing this question out there: Do you want multiple people you don't know touching your food?

 

[Phil Elliott]

The current monetization of services in airline industry started with the financial crisis. I would expect increased fees (such as checked baggage) and fees waived for elite status fliers to encourage fliers to obtain the higher status levels. Or all the airlines just get together and throw the loyalty programs out the window completely.

 

[Morton Muffley]

If this is half as big as the US govt now (finally) thinks it will be there will be short term pain and suffering (ideaths obviously, a possible recession and everything that comes with that), but long term benefit (Trump defeated? National healthcare enacted after families are bankrupted?  2 week paid sick leave made permanent for all, an unbelievable transfer of wealth as this largely impacts elderly, some new products and services created in response will stick long term, teachers will learn to better integrate technology into the classroom,  UBI will gain steam, etc.)

If this is just a short term blip (because we find that the denominator of infected is much higher than we think today and/or anti virals are soon developed) then there will be few short term impacts (some lost wages causing a small spike in bankruptcies for those already on the edge).  Long term impacts will be significant, I fear (Trump re elected on the back of the "Gina Virus Hoax," further degradation in the respect for expertise and trust in institutions like the media and govt, increased power in the presidency, complete unpeparedness for the next real pandemic, etc)

To be clear, am not rooting for a lot of pain and suffering, but I do think the health threat is real (not spanish flu bad, but certainly 3-10x the seasonal flu).  And I also think the geo political threat of this NOT being "real" is more significant.  Does that make sense?  Does the above conflict make me a bad person?  Maybe I've just been thinking about "Covid so long that I have accepted it's inevitability and thus talked myself into it's potential positive impacts.  Would love to hear a thorough critique of my above.

 

[Clown Car]

The trade show industry is in trouble. A lot of companies have been wondering if trade shows are still worth it. 
 

With many cancelled, when companies see that sales are not negatively impacted they will stop attending in future. 

This is my husbands livelihood. He works from home in Florida for a company in New Jersey. It was a slow winter anyway and one guy already left the company to reduce the burden. Ironically, we are well equipped to handle social distancing (wfh/homeschool already) but he will likely lose his job in the long run. He has been working on certifications in cyber security and the company has been trying to add in what they can do. But there’s certainly no guarantee. But over the last 18 years he’s worked there things they thought would kill them didn’t. 

 

[humpback]

If this is half as big as the US govt now (finally) thinks it will be there will be short term pain and suffering (ideaths obviously, a possible recession and everything that comes with that), but long term benefit (Trump defeated? National healthcare enacted after families are bankrupted?  2 week paid sick leave made permanent for all, an unbelievable transfer of wealth as this largely impacts elderly, some new products and services created in response will stick long term, teachers will learn to better integrate technology into the classroom,  UBI will gain steam, etc.)

If this is just a short term blip (because we find that the denominator of infected is much higher than we think today and/or anti virals are soon developed) then there will be few short term impacts (some lost wages causing a small spike in bankruptcies for those already on the edge).  Long term impacts will be significant, I fear (Trump re elected on the back of the "Gina Virus Hoax," further degradation in the respect for expertise and trust in institutions like the media and govt, increased power in the presidency, complete unpeparedness for the next real pandemic, etc)

To be clear, am not rooting for a lot of pain and suffering, but I do think the health threat is real (not spanish flu bad, but certainly 3-10x the seasonal flu).  And I also think the geo political threat of this NOT being "real" is more significant.  Does that make sense?  Does the above conflict make me a bad person?  Maybe I've just been thinking about "Covid so long that I have accepted it's inevitability and thus talked myself into it's potential positive impacts.  Would love to hear a thorough critique of my above.

Take it to the cesspool forum, please...

 

[Morton Muffley]

Take it to the cesspool forum, please...

Sorry, didn't realize what forum I was in.  Mods, feel free to delete if you feel my previous post was too political.  That said, not sure how you can have a discussion about the short and long term impacts of this and NOT consider the political implications as significant.  Forget the dems and repubs, there could be long term geo political implications.  Is China's authoritarian govt better positioned to deal with this type of issue than an more open, independent one?  Could this be the moment that historians look back on and say THAT is when the US ceded it's position as world leader to China? Is that "too political" for this thread? Sincerely asking and ok with mods deleting if it is.

 

[RUSF18]

All these families stuck inside. Divorce lawyers are gonna clean up. 

 

[chet]

High end cars will be crushed.  In 08-09, a guy from another board said he couldn't sell a 1 yo Phantom with 3k miles (400k sticker) for $120k.  "Zero buyers."

People are going to get over levered and need to get out.

 

[wikkidpissah]

altho i got no indication of such on my weekly shopping day yesterday - the horde as selfish & oblivious as ever, my favorite checker said to me after i waited a long line "corona will only get a chance at these people if i dont kill em first" - i'm hoping for a moral effect from the consequences of behavior during a contagion.

it is the job of every citizen in a well-functioning society to edit their public behavior in the name of cooperation and flow, the common good. that phrase is almost laughable now, but it was the norm not too long ago. i know we still have it in us - we see it yearly in the Christmas Effect, we saw it after 9/11.

i dont have many years left. the down-dragging impact of liberty turning into license disheartens me more each day. before i cash in, i would like to see us turn the corner on something, anything which says that a society no longer much afraid of God will see the value of good on its own. were the vagaries of living under pandemic conditions to give a public charge to our private outlooks, it might almost be worth the cost

 

[adonis]

All these families stuck inside. Divorce lawyers are gonna clean up. 

Lots of coronavirus babies.

Next generation of baby boomers...virus boomers?

 

[wikkidpissah]

Lots of coronavirus babies.

Next generation of baby boomers...virus boomers?

Germ Army

 

[shader]

I believe the stock market is going to crash in a big way.  I had a good friend who is really worried about the virus text me yesterday "well at least I bought a bunch of cheap stocks today!"  

Absolutely clueless.  This thing really hasn't even hit this country yet.  Now I will say this, there will be money to make.  But I'd be totally on the sidelines and follow this as closely as I could.  Find 5-10 experts that have their pulse on the coronavirus.  When you see that tipping point, that point where things are at their worst, but the leveling off has begun, that's when I'd dump all my money in.

 

[skycriesmary]

Just throwing this question out there: Do you want multiple people you don't know touching your food?

No, of course not. But, many will be willing to overlook the risk for convenience. 

 

[tommyboy]

Sorry, didn't realize what forum I was in.  Mods, feel free to delete if you feel my previous post was too political.  That said, not sure how you can have a discussion about the short and long term impacts of this and NOT consider the political implications as significant.  Forget the dems and repubs, there could be long term geo political implications.  Is China's authoritarian govt better positioned to deal with this type of issue than an more open, independent one?  Could this be the moment that historians look back on and say THAT is when the US ceded it's position as world leader to China? Is that "too political" for this thread? Sincerely asking and ok with mods deleting if it is.

the only part of your post i was offended by was the part where you said people think this is a hoax.  Lol.  nope.

Still, the points you make about education, transfer of wealth etc  are important and useful to this discussion.   I am going to spend some time really analyzing past, current and what I believe are the future ramifications tonight and tomorrow and come back with more details

 

[Mr. Pickles]

Long term - this might be it for the cruise industry. 

Oh darn. 

 

[tommyboy]

In a worst case scenario if you lose millions of people I think you'll see a break down of cities. 

However I highly doubt the worst case. If you've been tracking the numbers of infections they aren't going up exponentially avg have leveled off and begun declining in the first areas exposed. There's also the idea that this virus has lost its potency as it's moved around.

Given current numbers it appears that this will slow and eventually become a non event. 

In the meantime what you see right now is

Less travel, restaurant, gas, movies, hotel, tourism, total production, less transportation, less efficiency. Less Ammo, milk, paper, cleaning items, medical supplies, soap

More
Delivery, streaming, home time, home improvement, media, wiring, service demands, free time, exercise/outdoor time.

Side effects loss of trust, less caring about politics, more concern of public safety govt actually doing things. More vigilantism, more petty crime. 

Needs in that environment
Non perishable food. First aid, fuel, cleaning, anti biotics. Water testing, purifier, containers. Weapons ammo, basic tools, coolers. Patience and thoughtfulness.

 

[Capella]

I guess I don’t understand how we know when “normal” returns. Also what do we expect to happen this fall/winter when this thing allegedly will return? I think that’s scarier to me than what’s going on now. 

 

[rockaction]

I guess I don’t understand how we know when “normal” returns. Also what do we expect to happen this fall/winter when this thing allegedly will return? I think that’s scarier to me than what’s going on now. 

I'm no mathemetician but I wonder if at that point we don't just get back to daily living. Or at what point that is...

 

[shader]

In a worst case scenario if you lose millions of people I think you'll see a break down of cities. 

However I highly doubt the worst case. If you've been tracking the numbers of infections they aren't going up exponentially avg have leveled off and begun declining in the first areas exposed. There's also the idea that this virus has lost its potency as it's moved around.

Given current numbers it appears that this will slow and eventually become a non event. 

In the meantime what you see right now is

Less travel, restaurant, gas, movies, hotel, tourism, total production, less transportation, less efficiency. Less Ammo, milk, paper, cleaning items, medical supplies, soap

More
Delivery, streaming, home time, home improvement, media, wiring, service demands, free time, exercise/outdoor time.

Side effects loss of trust, less caring about politics, more concern of public safety govt actually doing things. More vigilantism, more petty crime. 

Needs in that environment
Non perishable food. First aid, fuel, cleaning, anti biotics. Water testing, purifier, containers. Weapons ammo, basic tools, coolers. Patience and thoughtfulness.

You need to go back and do a bit more research.  All sorts of wrong in here.

 

[toshiba]

The trade show industry is in trouble. A lot of companies have been wondering if trade shows are still worth it. 
 

With many cancelled, when companies see that sales are not negatively impacted they will stop attending in future. 

This is my husbands livelihood. He works from home in Florida for a company in New Jersey. It was a slow winter anyway and one guy already left the company to reduce the burden. Ironically, we are well equipped to handle social distancing (wfh/homeschool already) but he will likely lose his job in the long run. He has been working on certifications in cyber security and the company has been trying to add in what they can do. But there’s certainly no guarantee. But over the last 18 years he’s worked there things they thought would kill them didn’t. 

I quit my job in December to pursue my MS in cyber security full time.  I have enough to live for a year and am 100% online.  I feel financially set to ride this out, but I worry about people on the edge.  It is a very sad situation.

 

[tommyboy]

You need to go back and do a bit more research.  All sorts of wrong in here.

statistics:  you can see for yourself what i'm talking about here:   https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

there is a clear and obvious leveling off of growth trajectories.

 

[Clown Car]

I quit my job in December to pursue my MS in cyber security full time.  I have enough to live for a year and am 100% online.  I feel financially set to ride this out, but I worry about people on the edge.  It is a very sad situation.

Let me know when you get hired on somewhere! We are probably ok for 6 months if he loses his job. So keeping feelers out is probably smart in the long run. 

 

[toshiba]

I quit my job in December to pursue my MS in cyber security full time.  I have enough to live for a year and am 100% online.  I feel financially set to ride this out, but I worry about people on the edge.  It is a very sad situation.

Let me know when you get hired on somewhere! We are probably ok for 6 months if he loses his job. So keeping feelers out is probably smart in the long run. 

I won't be looking until sometime in the Fall.  Good luck to you guys!