General Auction Strategy (1 Viewer)

[q030973]

Each year I feel I come into my auction draft with what I believe to be pretty accurate auction values - I read the player value articles and prepare the necessary spreadsheets. My problem however is that our league REALLY overvalues RBs and I'm never able to pull the trigger on any of true "difference makers".

I have succuess finding value at WR and at QB but I'm never able to overcome the weakness at RB.

Just for perspective: we have a $180 cap and AP went for $88, MJD went for $72, SJax went for $64, etc.

I grabbed Bush for $9, mcfadden for $23, LJ for $20 and Beanie and Felix Jones a bit later thinking that grabbing a bunch of lower prices guys would allow me to hit on two of them.

I guess my question is whether a strategy that doesn't net you one of the top 8-10 RBs can be successful in an auction league or did I just pick the wrong players last year and I shoudn't overreact.

Thanks.

 

[Coin Flip]

I also find it difficult to build a team around one high priced player. I do see teams do it however. Was the winner of your league last year or even a couple years back a team that owns one of the top RBs?

 

[Instinctive]

So pass on the RBs, grab guys like Hightower and Addai who will get some recpetions and rec yardage, go for rookies that are generally cheaper...handcuffs too.

Blow your budget on Rodgers/Brees/Rivers and then your favorite 3-5 WRs, depending on how many you start. If you have WR1, WR2, and WR3 as your WR1/2/3, you have a huge weekly advantage that you can make up by mixing and matching weekly RBs. RBs get hurt a LOT, they're always out there on the wire.

You could get Gates and/or Finley too at TE.

 

[Coin Flip]

That was kinda the point I was gonna make if the winners in past years didnt always own the BIG time RBs. If the league is PPR especially you may not need a top 3 RB to win it all....but I wanted to see his reply first

 

[q030973]

I also find it difficult to build a team around one high priced player. I do see teams do it however. Was the winner of your league last year or even a couple years back a team that owns one of the top RBs?

The winner drafted went with a "big four" approach with AP, Pierre Thomas, Brees and Steve Smith. The key for him though was getting Hightower and Ricky Williams for pennies and then picking up Miles Austin.

 

[Coin Flip]

Ok I can understand that......many times we use the draft as a starting point and the key moves in trades or waiver pickups makes the difference.

Notice you said getting Williams and Hightower for pennies was the key to his win. Those are not big named RBs.....and wont be in 2010 auctions either. So I think passing on the big name RBs that blow the budget early is not necessary.

 

[Instinctive]

I also find it difficult to build a team around one high priced player. I do see teams do it however. Was the winner of your league last year or even a couple years back a team that owns one of the top RBs?

The winner drafted went with a "big four" approach with AP, Pierre Thomas, Brees and Steve Smith. The key for him though was getting Hightower and Ricky Williams for pennies and then picking up Miles Austin.

That's a good point too. The guy who wins is usually a guy with a solid team, but almost always (we'll use last year) had Miles Austin, Brett Favre, Sidney Rice, Jerome Harrison, and/or Jamaal Charles on his roster. Those end of the year/out of nowhere guys make the difference, and more RBs typically fit the bill each season, so go after a #1 QB and top wideouts. You can get productive RBs off the wire easier than any other position.

 

[q030973]

So pass on the RBs, grab guys like Hightower and Addai who will get some recpetions and rec yardage, go for rookies that are generally cheaper...handcuffs too.Blow your budget on Rodgers/Brees/Rivers and then your favorite 3-5 WRs, depending on how many you start. If you have WR1, WR2, and WR3 as your WR1/2/3, you have a huge weekly advantage that you can make up by mixing and matching weekly RBs. RBs get hurt a LOT, they're always out there on the wire.You could get Gates and/or Finley too at TE.

It's not a PPR league but I see your point. It sounds like you think the strategy I used is sound but that I just have to do a better job selecting my RBs. We start 2RB/3WR and a flex. To this point I've always felt like I need to start another RB at that flex position but if I'm able to load up with top WRs at the draft then I suppose there's no reason that lineup wouldn't be successful.

 

[Coin Flip]

How far are you from winning it yearly with your strategy? You have to be close

 

[q030973]

How far are you from winning it yearly with your strategy? You have to be close

We've had this format for about ten years and early on I had success but recently it's been pretty bad. Two years ago I had Brady and you saw the RB mess I drafted last year.I appreciate the feedback guys - it seems as though I just need to do a better job finding those RBs that can provide me with depth and upside. That, and continue to be diligent on the waiver wire.

 

[GroveDiesel]

The guy that wins ANY league will almost always be the guy that hit on a few value guys. Sometimes you do, sometimes you don't.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, you don't WIN your draft with your first couple of picks (or guys acquired in auction), but you can LOSE your draft there. If your first or second rounder gets hurt or severely underperforms, you're probably toast. But just because you have Peterson and Peyton Manning doesn't guarantee you a championship either. You're still going to need one or two of your value guys to pan out to win it all.

 

[Warpig]

I feel your pain. In my auctions in the past, I just couldn't pull the trigger on the big names guys...I always wanted to have good depth. And I'd always be stuck with good players on my bench that no one would trade for. But none of them were big time scorers.

This year I joined a new auction league 42 - 53 man rosters, $1000 cap, PPR, yada yada. Right out of the gate I wanted a stud RB and I spent $136 on MJD. I also wanted to get one of the top 3 - 5 WR's so I got Calvin Johnson for $111. From this point, I figured I'd get a mediocre QB (Eli Manning)and try to fill in with guys I thought were good value.

I proceeded to get Maclin ($69), Braylon Edwards ($33), James Jones ($15) and Louis Murphy ($9) for WRs. My RBs, other than MJD, are pretty unimpressive...but I have the 1.01 rookie pick to bolster there. I have McFadden ($56...totally overpaid but I think I panicked a little), Willis McGahee ($16) and Mewelde Moore ($3).

My TE is Kellen Winslow ($31...in comparison, Brent Celek went for $69!!!) and to back up Winslow I have Ben Watson ($14), Travis Beckum ($2) and Cornelius Ingram ($2).

I'm feeling pretty good about my team. I won't go into my IDP's since I posted all this stuff in my auction thread. I need about 8 - 10 more players to complete my roster and I have over $200 left. Most players have been going for $1 or $2 at this point in our auction so I should still have cap room to pull off a trade perhaps to really put the icing on the cake.

 

[CalBear]

In a 2RB/3WR/flex league with no PPR, top RBs are pretty dang valuable. You're looking at having 30ish RBs starting every week, so the baseline RB is quite low. I think 49% of cap for Peterson in that format is reasonable, 35% of cap for Jackson seems fine. So one thing may be that you're not properly adjusting your auction values for your league format.

It is certainly possible to win without a true RB1; a typical winning team might have a great WR1 and above-average QB and WR2, with two RBs who are both good RB2s. Typical VBD principles apply; if you're giving away points above the baseline at RB, you need to earn them back at WR and QB.

 

[perry147]

I also find it difficult to build a team around one high priced player. I do see teams do it however. Was the winner of your league last year or even a couple years back a team that owns one of the top RBs?

I will pay for a stud RB and then find value in other spots. QBBC and play the waiver wire hard. I won a league last year with Turner as my Stud RB, WR Boldin, VJackson, Driver, Austin Miles, TE Clark and pickups on K and Def.My other RB was Lynch uke: but later got Justin Forsett and he served me well over the playoffs.

 

[Donnybrook]

I also find it difficult to build a team around one high priced player. I do see teams do it however. Was the winner of your league last year or even a couple years back a team that owns one of the top RBs?

The winner drafted went with a "big four" approach with AP, Pierre Thomas, Brees and Steve Smith. The key for him though was getting Hightower and Ricky Williams for pennies and then picking up Miles Austin.

I have the same problem as you. I can't bring myself to go all in on one RB in my league. I guess I fear injuries and value sleepers too highly. Just out of curiousity, what did Pierre Thomas go for?

 

[TommyGilmore]

I had a similar problem for years. I refused to overpay for anyone, so I ended up with a bunch of players that may have seemed like great value TO ME, but in reality the only reason I got them was because nobody else wanted them.

The solution? You have to overpay for a few players. That's just a fact of life. Overpay for a few "stud" players that you really want, then grab a bunch of cheap guys at the end of the draft and hope that you end up with a cohesive roster.

 

[B A Strothers]

In a 2RB/3WR/flex league with no PPR, top RBs are pretty dang valuable. You're looking at having 30ish RBs starting every week, so the baseline RB is quite low. I think 49% of cap for Peterson in that format is reasonable, 35% of cap for Jackson seems fine. So one thing may be that you're not properly adjusting your auction values for your league format.

It is certainly possible to win without a true RB1; a typical winning team might have a great WR1 and above-average QB and WR2, with two RBs who are both good RB2s. Typical VBD principles apply; if you're giving away points above the baseline at RB, you need to earn them back at WR and QB.

Based on the information you have provided, I think the bolded part is your answer. Auctions are more dynamic than drafts, so adjusting for other league owners is more important. Check your valuations compared to the actual prices. Are your values lower or higher than what the players go for? And where do they differ? Look at the past four seasons and compare the prices sold to your values. It will give you an idea of how to adjust your values to account for the others in your league. I suspect that your values are lower at the top 10 RBs, but higher at other positions. Another quick analysis is to model the winning budget. Using the costs paid for each position over the past few seasons, determine the % of the budget allocated to each position and each position starters (i.e. QB 10% of budget, QB starter 9%). Then look at the teams that made it to the semi-finals each season and see if there is a trend or pattern on how winning teams allocate per position and per starter. That would give you a general budget for how to spend.

 

[CalBear]

One thing Draft Dominator is useful for is to evaluate strategic decisions. If you are using DD, at the end of your auction you can get a report on expected scoring for starters only. If you executed your strategy correctly, your team should be at or near the top of the league in this category; the dollars you didn't spend on RBs wound up getting spent on other players who are projected to provide points in your starting lineup.

Of course, DD's ratings are based on player projections, so it's possible to be at the top after your auction, but actually have a sucky team because your player evaluations were wrong. Good strategy can't help you if you evaluate players incorrectly. If you look at this, you should at least be able to determine whether you're making strategic errors or player evaluation errors. (Or just getting unlucky).

 

[beto]

A wise man on this board once said - Draft good players

Same thing goes for auction. Your RBs were not good buys last year (dispite their relative cheapness) and they wouldn't be good buys this year. You had guys spending greater than 33% of cap on one player. You should have OWNED the rest of the auction, nominating guys that people would overpay for and then scooping up the next tier of guys who are bound to be bargains.

 

[Instinctive]

So pass on the RBs, grab guys like Hightower and Addai who will get some recpetions and rec yardage, go for rookies that are generally cheaper...handcuffs too.Blow your budget on Rodgers/Brees/Rivers and then your favorite 3-5 WRs, depending on how many you start. If you have WR1, WR2, and WR3 as your WR1/2/3, you have a huge weekly advantage that you can make up by mixing and matching weekly RBs. RBs get hurt a LOT, they're always out there on the wire.You could get Gates and/or Finley too at TE.

It's not a PPR league but I see your point. It sounds like you think the strategy I used is sound but that I just have to do a better job selecting my RBs. We start 2RB/3WR and a flex. To this point I've always felt like I need to start another RB at that flex position but if I'm able to load up with top WRs at the draft then I suppose there's no reason that lineup wouldn't be successful.

So go out and literally try for 4 top 5 WRs. Maybe it doesn't work out, but if it's truly that RB heavy then get at least 3 and another top 10 guy. Then pay 20 bucks a RB, or perhaps less, because it isn't about hitting on RBs. Anybody can be your RB. I won multiple leagues last year because I picked up Jerome Harrison in week 10, anticipating his incredibly amazing run schedule in the playoffs. Now, you can't predict 40 carries for 300 yds...but 20 for 150 was a reasonable prediction against that cakewalk, and it worked.You can't do that as well with a wideout. Most of my leagues had Rice/Austin rostered (live in Dallas so Austin drafted, and I drafted Rice EVERYWHERE) but cruddy backup RBs on the wire. There's a reason people handcuff RBs...they get injured all the time. So just grab the lesser valued guys in timeshares, and backups. Somebody will see the field, and your massive WR advantage will help you out until then.(P.S. I'd target guys like Ahmad Bradshaw, Joseph Addai/Donald Brown, Anthony Dixon for a dollar or two, Rashad Jennings, etc...)

 

[J Giles Band]

Each year I feel I come into my auction draft with what I believe to be pretty accurate auction values - I read the player value articles and prepare the necessary spreadsheets. My problem however is that our league REALLY overvalues RBs and I'm never able to pull the trigger on any of true "difference makers".

My league does the exact same thing. RB's consistently eat up the lion's share of team budgets and WR's tend to go for less than what is universally predicted.Three years ago I was forced to go the WR route because of the same scenario. The elite RB's went for ridiculous prices I refused to pay and I ended up overpaying myself just to get Reggie Bush ($27) as my top RB in a $100 cap league. Sounds like disaster right? Wrong... My WR's were Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne and Braylon Edwards (in his breakout year). Add Kellen Winslow at TE (also in his 80+ catch, 1,000+ yard breakout year) and I was fortunate to pick up Ryan Grant and Justin Fargas during the season (both had career years). Between them and LenDale White, I was able to mix and match at RB and get by. In my PPR league, I rolled over the teams with the elite RB's to the tune of an 11-2 record in the regular season.A number of guys here have essentially said it already, but some of the best advice I've ever been given is to ZIG when everyone else ZAGS. Load up on the elite WR's knowing there has to be value there. Get a top flight QB. And find the best value you possibly can in at least one solid second or third tier RB without relying solely on longshots.Combine this with working the waiver wire diligently during the season. There will be at least a couple backs who gain everydown jobs during the season. If you hit on the right ones, you should be as competitive as anyone in the league come playoff time.Best of luck

 

[King of the Wolfies]

the big thing about auctions are to get value. top rbs usually cost the same amount as getting 2-3 top wrs, or 2 top wrs and a top qb. a pt in ff is a pt whether it comes from the rb, or wr or te. mid range rbs are usually more consistant than middle range wrs, so going top qb/wr always works better for me. for instance, the 3 teams with AP, MJD, and CJ all missed the playoffs last season and those were the top 3 rbs in our scoring by quite a bit over all other rbs other than rice. meanwhile the 2 top teams had rbs at 5/15 and 14/16/18 because they had top wr/qb/te.

 

[GregR_2]

If your entire league is overpaying for a given position, you may have to overpay as well just to get worthwhile starters. But in that case your goal should be to overpay less per fantasy point produced than other teams are.

Another point is to make sure that you're getting the extra money you saved into play for starters at your other positions. If you're grabbing a bunch of tremendous backups with that money you're not going to come out ahead unless they overperform where you had them. Extra money is great for late in the draft when that extra $1 will win a player because people are up against the cap limit, but you don't want a bunch of backups who are $5 better than your opponents backups when their money went into their starting lineup.

 

[daveR]

If your entire league is overpaying for a given position, you may have to overpay as well just to get worthwhile starters. But in that case your goal should be to overpay less per fantasy point produced than other teams are.Another point is to make sure that you're getting the extra money you saved into play for starters at your other positions. If you're grabbing a bunch of tremendous backups with that money you're not going to come out ahead unless they overperform where you had them. Extra money is great for late in the draft when that extra $1 will win a player because people are up against the cap limit, but you don't want a bunch of backups who are $5 better than your opponents backups when their money went into their starting lineup.

Gotta get stud starters if you're gonna pass on the RBs!On the other hand, if it takes stud RBs to win your league, maybe they're worth the money being spent on them...

 

[ddarroch4]

Review your league rules and go after the players that have an advantage in your league compared to a normal league. For example if you get 6 points for passing TD's get a top QB. If you get return yards grab Reggie Bush and Wes Welker who get punt return yards. Most of the owners in your league will be drafting off of a generic cheat sheet. If you go after guys that have an advantage because of your league rules it really helps.

 

[Bayhawks]

Ok I can understand that......many times we use the draft as a starting point and the key moves in trades or waiver pickups makes the difference.Notice you said getting Williams and Hightower for pennies was the key to his win. Those are not big named RBs.....and wont be in 2010 auctions either. So I think passing on the big name RBs that blow the budget early is not necessary.

Yeah, but he paid big bucks for Peterson and Pierre Thomas. In my experience, you CAN NOT win in an auction league unless you are willing to overpay for RBs at some point.

 

[ddarroch4]

I think I'm going to try and grab The top QB WR's and TE this year and fill in the rest with $1 players. I think I should end up with Brees, Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, DeSean Jackson and Jermichael Finley. Should be an interesting experiment.

 

[Lord Fantasy]

I've had a similar experience so thanks to for this post and thanks to everyone for all the good advice.

Just wanted to add that I tried the Load Up on WRs strategy last year to mixed results.

I spent the majority of my $200 cap on A. Johnson, C. Johnson, R. White and VJax. Then I found value at RB and QB, where I ended up with Rice, Moreno and Schaub (who went for cheap on his injury rep).

So a pretty stacked team on paper. And believe me it was a pleasure to set my three WRs every week.

But the competitive advantage never worked out. Partly because non-PPR. Partly because all three WRs never went off the same week. (I rarely got that critical mass of points to overcome the people with stud RBs like MJD, ADP and Chris Johnson.)

But the big thing that undermined my strategy was the emergence of players like Miles Austin, Sidney Rice, Vernon Davis (we blend WRs and TEs in our league) and to a lesser degree MSW. The competitive advantage I had at the draft was diminished by all the emerging WRs on the waiver wire.

I don't know if we'll have a year like last year again, but with the NFL continuing to emphasize the pass it makes sense that we'll continue to have a deep well of quality WRs. At the same time, elite RBs who are both productive AND the focal point of the offense seem to be rarer than ever.

So this year I'm not going to try anything fancy. I'm going to "overpay" for a top-5 RB (CJ3, ADP, MJD, Gore or Turner) and then sit back and use my knowledge (and my auction skills) to gain an incremental advantage at the rest of the positions.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

If your entire league is overpaying for a given position, you may have to overpay as well just to get worthwhile starters. But in that case your goal should be to overpay less per fantasy point produced than other teams are.Another point is to make sure that you're getting the extra money you saved into play for starters at your other positions. If you're grabbing a bunch of tremendous backups with that money you're not going to come out ahead unless they overperform where you had them. Extra money is great for late in the draft when that extra $1 will win a player because people are up against the cap limit, but you don't want a bunch of backups who are $5 better than your opponents backups when their money went into their starting lineup.

GregR nails this with the above.Auctions are virtually unpredictable - which is part of the fun but also a big source of frustration.Typically you walk into an auction with "expected values" for each player and those numbers get obliterated in the first 30 minutes or less. The trick then is how to react to the flow / craziness of your league.If ADP is expected by your list to be $50 and he is $75, that's $25 overspent - sure - but if everyone else is adjusting and you are not, you're now at a disadvantage. Everyone now knows that RBs will be expensive and QB/WR/TE will be on sale. I would go back and look at the last 1-3 years (whatever you have) and add up the prices of the Top 24 RBs - doesn't matter how they did, just their price at the auction. Compare that number to your expected numbers and make an adjustment (if all 24 add up to $1000 and you expect $500, multiply the values all by 2).That may seem weird, but now you have "better expected values" and you can adjust. The key is always - ALWAYS - adjusting to the draft. You have to come out of the draft with a Top 10 RB even if you think you are overpaying.

 

[AngryPatriot]

Yeah, I think that's right. STARTERS are so key but it's easy to get wide eyed about "emerging" or "potential" super talents that actually are "what who thought they were." lol Then they stay on the bench= 0 points. Dynasty complicates matters and we're just completing one that the starters (1-4) can be RB, WR or TE... I went against conventional ppr thinking a bit and concentrated on RB's who catch well (Forte, Benson, Spiller, Best...), Brady and Lienert, a couple very good TE's (Clark and Winslow) and some decent WR's (Britt,Steve Smith-NY). We'll see. I'll also admit that I just love rb's, a feeling left over from the old days- and it just pisses me off when a wr goes for 3/26! I do think it's important to get at least 1 stud in every area, a foundation so to speak. This is what makes FF a fun game to play.

 

[Sylira21]

This is a great topic.

I find that trying to project "expected values" is a real key. In an auction, it's not only what I value the player to be, it is very much what I expect them to be priced by the league as a whole that matters. I've had great success in auctions getting players at the end with extra money, and I've also defeated myself by having more money then and nothing worthwhile to bid on. I've gotten great bargains at running back, and I've also left myself with a big pile of nothing.

I'm coming around to the opinion that you need an anchor at RB that you can count on most weeks, and you HAVE to pay market price to get one. If your league "overpays" to get these guys (in your valuation), then you have to take that into account, and do the same. At least once. And pray the guy doesn't get hurt.

But I've taken to setting two prices on all the players I expect to bid on - one is what I think he's worth, and one that I think others will value him at regardless of what I think.

 

[zed2283]

I've always been conservative at my auction draft. I'm usually the one holding onto my money, looking for bargains. The one problem I've had with that is that there's always one other guy doing the same thing. So when it comes down to the last few good RB's or WR's or whatever, I still always ended up bidding against somebody. So I was never able to execute my auction the way I wanted to UNTIL....

Two years ago something weird happened. Everyone but me was spending money from the get-go. The first hour went by and I didn't have a player, everyone was making fun of me, etc. Then all of a sudden, bam! bam! I had my roster filled out before anyone else. I ended up with K.Warner, J.Cutler, M.Turner, B.Jacobs, DeAngelo, Fitz, Boldin, and cruised to a title. I definitely had to take a shotgun approach with the RB's (also took McGahee, E.Graham, R.Williams) but it worked out.

So last year a couple guys say they're going to do the same thing as me. A couple tried but I was still pretty well in control of my draft and ended up with A.Rodgers, Shaub, Gore, R.Grant, P.Thomas, Calvin, R.White, and De.Jackson. I was highest scoring team in my division and second highest overall, but as it happened I didn't even make the playoffs. If I had, I would have won it all.

I think it ends up depending on your league and each particular draft. As people have said, you need to be able to adjust. I usually just keep an eye on my list of the guys I want, and when it gets down to a certain number then I know I need to start bidding.

 

[CalBear]

I'm coming around to the opinion that you need an anchor at RB that you can count on most weeks, and you HAVE to pay market price to get one. If your league "overpays" to get these guys (in your valuation), then you have to take that into account, and do the same. At least once.

I agree, and in fact I try to do this for both my RB1 and WR1. Once I have anchors at those two positions, I can mine the rest of the auction for value. WR1 I'm often able to get at a bargain price, anyway.My league uses CBS and has a mix of good and casual fantasy players. On my auction cheatsheet I put in what CBS lists as the auction value, because I know half of the league will drop out of the auction about $1 above the CBS price. This can be a useful tactic if your league scoring differs notably from the CBS default (plus their auction values are weird anyway).

 

[inca911]

The primary goal of any auction is to build a team of starting players that have a combined total greater than any other individual team. The secondary goal of the auction is to build a strong bench. Achieving only the secondary goal is NOT a recipe for auction success. If you have correctly assigned auction values based on projections for players AND on their ability to be a starter, then stick to your guns. If other teams want to overpay, let them. Once they have overspent for the points that RB#1 through RB#8 provide above the RB baseline, you can take RB#9 and RB#10 and make up for the difference by getting more points from the other positions (above the baselines for those positions). The measure of value that I use is points above the baseline (baseline is also defined based on where I see the starting probability of a player falling off). RB#9 + RB#10 + WR#2 + WR#3 + WR#5 + QB#4 (purchased at around the prices you have established for them) will most likely outscore the other team's starting players. It's just math. You'll also likely end up with a better bench as well. Of course, you can miss on your projections and end up losing when WR#2 and WR#3 perform like #20 and #30, but that's not because of bad strategy. It's because of bad accuracy. With reasonably accurate projections and the right valuation system, it is impossible for other teams to overpay at positions and for you to not be able to build a stronger team than them as a result. You do not have to have an "anchor RB#1" to win. You have to have more total points from your starting lineup, period. That said, don't just trust the VBD app to give you good auction values. It doesn't. Go into the app and change RB#1 to score 70 TDs and you'll see that the auction value assigned to that one player doesn't match at all.

The formula for auction success is simple. Trust the math. Focus first on starters. Take what you are given.

 

[HeirCoryell]

This is a great topic.I find that trying to project "expected values" is a real key. In an auction, it's not only what I value the player to be, it is very much what I expect them to be priced by the league as a whole that matters. But I've taken to setting two prices on all the players I expect to bid on - one is what I think he's worth, and one that I think others will value him at regardless of what I think.

I've also found this to be very helpful. There are always owners who you know want players from the local team or their favorite team and will pay extra just to get them. On the other end of the spectrum are player from from the "bad" teams that almost always seem to be undervalued just because the team they play for isn't supposed to win many games.

 

[roadkill1292]

I've always been conservative at my auction draft. I'm usually the one holding onto my money, looking for bargains. The one problem I've had with that is that there's always one other guy doing the same thing. So when it comes down to the last few good RB's or WR's or whatever, I still always ended up bidding against somebody. So I was never able to execute my auction the way I wanted to UNTIL....

This points out the danger of sitting on your cash in the early going. If one of two other guys does the same, which is usually the case at my league's auction, the advantages are severely negated. It's sometimes a very thin line; knowing just when to jump in when values are at their best is difficult to ascertain.As Jeff P noted, the dynamics of each auction are fluid. It's part of what makes them so much fun.

 

[ddarroch4]

I've had a similar experience so thanks to for this post and thanks to everyone for all the good advice.Just wanted to add that I tried the Load Up on WRs strategy last year to mixed results.I spent the majority of my $200 cap on A. Johnson, C. Johnson, R. White and VJax. Then I found value at RB and QB, where I ended up with Rice, Moreno and Schaub (who went for cheap on his injury rep). So a pretty stacked team on paper. And believe me it was a pleasure to set my three WRs every week.But the competitive advantage never worked out. Partly because non-PPR. Partly because all three WRs never went off the same week. (I rarely got that critical mass of points to overcome the people with stud RBs like MJD, ADP and Chris Johnson.)But the big thing that undermined my strategy was the emergence of players like Miles Austin, Sidney Rice, Vernon Davis (we blend WRs and TEs in our league) and to a lesser degree MSW. The competitive advantage I had at the draft was diminished by all the emerging WRs on the waiver wire. I don't know if we'll have a year like last year again, but with the NFL continuing to emphasize the pass it makes sense that we'll continue to have a deep well of quality WRs. At the same time, elite RBs who are both productive AND the focal point of the offense seem to be rarer than ever. So this year I'm not going to try anything fancy. I'm going to "overpay" for a top-5 RB (CJ3, ADP, MJD, Gore or Turner) and then sit back and use my knowledge (and my auction skills) to gain an incremental advantage at the rest of the positions.

Do you think this strategy would have worked if you adjusted it? For example if you went with Brees, A.Johnson, C. Johnson, Gates loaded up on 7 sleeper RBs' and worked the waiver wire for sleeper WR's and RB's? I think you might have been on the right path but you were just a little off. QB's, WR's and TE's are much more stable positions year to year than RB's. I think the key is to be very aggressive on the waiver wire and make sure your the owner that gets Miles Austin, Fred Jackson and Jamaal Charles. Granted I have never tried this but it's the route I'm going with this year.

 

[Lord Fantasy]

I've had a similar experience so thanks to for this post and thanks to everyone for all the good advice.Just wanted to add that I tried the Load Up on WRs strategy last year to mixed results.I spent the majority of my $200 cap on A. Johnson, C. Johnson, R. White and VJax. Then I found value at RB and QB, where I ended up with Rice, Moreno and Schaub (who went for cheap on his injury rep). So a pretty stacked team on paper. And believe me it was a pleasure to set my three WRs every week.But the competitive advantage never worked out. Partly because non-PPR. Partly because all three WRs never went off the same week. (I rarely got that critical mass of points to overcome the people with stud RBs like MJD, ADP and Chris Johnson.)But the big thing that undermined my strategy was the emergence of players like Miles Austin, Sidney Rice, Vernon Davis (we blend WRs and TEs in our league) and to a lesser degree MSW. The competitive advantage I had at the draft was diminished by all the emerging WRs on the waiver wire. I don't know if we'll have a year like last year again, but with the NFL continuing to emphasize the pass it makes sense that we'll continue to have a deep well of quality WRs. At the same time, elite RBs who are both productive AND the focal point of the offense seem to be rarer than ever. So this year I'm not going to try anything fancy. I'm going to "overpay" for a top-5 RB (CJ3, ADP, MJD, Gore or Turner) and then sit back and use my knowledge (and my auction skills) to gain an incremental advantage at the rest of the positions.

Do you think this strategy would have worked if you adjusted it? For example if you went with Brees, A.Johnson, C. Johnson, Gates loaded up on 7 sleeper RBs' and worked the waiver wire for sleeper WR's and RB's? I think you might have been on the right path but you were just a little off. QB's, WR's and TE's are much more stable positions year to year than RB's. I think the key is to be very aggressive on the waiver wire and make sure your the owner that gets Miles Austin, Fred Jackson and Jamaal Charles. Granted I have never tried this but it's the route I'm going with this year.

Along those lines I like what Inca911 said about finding that sweet spot where the inflated prices drop off but you're still getting high quality players. So you avoid the three or four most expensive players at a position and then start finding groupings (QB3, RB6 & RB7 or maybe RB 10, WR8, WR9 &WR10) that give you a competitive advantage. That said, maybe the answer isn't to use the auction style to create highly customized team that's the fantasy equivalent of something you'd find on American Chopper or Ace of Cakes. Maybe the key to a successful auction is to have a more perfect version of the serpentine draft. So you pay a little more to have that guy you would have missed in a snake draft. (No more complaining about being in the 5-hole.) And you save a little on the guy who would have "fallen" to you in a later round. But either way you're in complete control. I don't know. But this is a good discussion to be having . . . .

 

[degenerate]

i've been doing auctions for years now and something i've realized in my experience is that for each tier (RB1-4, RB5-..., etc), the bookends of each tier will go for more money than they should. everyone is excited when the draft starts, so if AP or CJ get called out first, they're gonna go for a little more to the guy that has to have him. then as the tier is drying up, people will panic, and the last guy of that tier will then go for more since more people will be competing for him.

The key is to find the middle ground of the tier. Those are where the deals are.

 

[massraider]

i've been doing auctions for years now and something i've realized in my experience is that for each tier (RB1-4, RB5-..., etc), the bookends of each tier will go for more money than they should. everyone is excited when the draft starts, so if AP or CJ get called out first, they're gonna go for a little more to the guy that has to have him. then as the tier is drying up, people will panic, and the last guy of that tier will then go for more since more people will be competing for him. The key is to find the middle ground of the tier. Those are where the deals are.

Exceptionally good point. And just to put names to that point, I could see that happening with QB this year. Manning, Brees, Rodgers go off the board, maybe Romo, Rivers, and Brady go, and then two or three owners bid up Shaub, because of a the perceived drop-off there, and he winds up costing more than the previous three. You really can't just assume the next-ranked guy will go for lower, and that you can get him for a certain amount.

 

[ddarroch4]

I've had a similar experience so thanks to for this post and thanks to everyone for all the good advice.Just wanted to add that I tried the Load Up on WRs strategy last year to mixed results.I spent the majority of my $200 cap on A. Johnson, C. Johnson, R. White and VJax. Then I found value at RB and QB, where I ended up with Rice, Moreno and Schaub (who went for cheap on his injury rep). So a pretty stacked team on paper. And believe me it was a pleasure to set my three WRs every week.But the competitive advantage never worked out. Partly because non-PPR. Partly because all three WRs never went off the same week. (I rarely got that critical mass of points to overcome the people with stud RBs like MJD, ADP and Chris Johnson.)But the big thing that undermined my strategy was the emergence of players like Miles Austin, Sidney Rice, Vernon Davis (we blend WRs and TEs in our league) and to a lesser degree MSW. The competitive advantage I had at the draft was diminished by all the emerging WRs on the waiver wire. I don't know if we'll have a year like last year again, but with the NFL continuing to emphasize the pass it makes sense that we'll continue to have a deep well of quality WRs. At the same time, elite RBs who are both productive AND the focal point of the offense seem to be rarer than ever. So this year I'm not going to try anything fancy. I'm going to "overpay" for a top-5 RB (CJ3, ADP, MJD, Gore or Turner) and then sit back and use my knowledge (and my auction skills) to gain an incremental advantage at the rest of the positions.

Do you think this strategy would have worked if you adjusted it? For example if you went with Brees, A.Johnson, C. Johnson, Gates loaded up on 7 sleeper RBs' and worked the waiver wire for sleeper WR's and RB's? I think you might have been on the right path but you were just a little off. QB's, WR's and TE's are much more stable positions year to year than RB's. I think the key is to be very aggressive on the waiver wire and make sure your the owner that gets Miles Austin, Fred Jackson and Jamaal Charles. Granted I have never tried this but it's the route I'm going with this year.

Along those lines I like what Inca911 said about finding that sweet spot where the inflated prices drop off but you're still getting high quality players. So you avoid the three or four most expensive players at a position and then start finding groupings (QB3, RB6 & RB7 or maybe RB 10, WR8, WR9 &WR10) that give you a competitive advantage. That said, maybe the answer isn't to use the auction style to create highly customized team that's the fantasy equivalent of something you'd find on American Chopper or Ace of Cakes. Maybe the key to a successful auction is to have a more perfect version of the serpentine draft. So you pay a little more to have that guy you would have missed in a snake draft. (No more complaining about being in the 5-hole.) And you save a little on the guy who would have "fallen" to you in a later round. But either way you're in complete control. I don't know. But this is a good discussion to be having . . . .

On a similar note, what about focusing on the last guy left in a tier. For example if you have Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Manning, Rivers, Romo and Schaub as all tier 1 QB's you just grab the last one left and do the same for all positions.

 

[degenerate]

"On a similar note, what about focusing on the last guy left in a tier. For example if you have Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Manning, Rivers, Romo and Schaub as all tier 1 QB's you just grab the last one left and do the same for all positions."

that wont work, see previous two replies

 

[Mr.Underhill]

Each year I feel I come into my auction draft with what I believe to be pretty accurate auction values - I read the player value articles and prepare the necessary spreadsheets. My problem however is that our league REALLY overvalues RBs and I'm never able to pull the trigger on any of true "difference makers".

I have succuess finding value at WR and at QB but I'm never able to overcome the weakness at RB.

Just for perspective: we have a $180 cap and AP went for $88, MJD went for $72, SJax went for $64, etc.

I grabbed Bush for $9, mcfadden for $23, LJ for $20 and Beanie and Felix Jones a bit later thinking that grabbing a bunch of lower prices guys would allow me to hit on two of them.

I guess my question is whether a strategy that doesn't net you one of the top 8-10 RBs can be successful in an auction league or did I just pick the wrong players last year and I shoudn't overreact.

Thanks.

Is it possible that you are the one "off" on your values because of some serious scoring bias in favor of RB's? That would explain why you can never make up at QB and WR what you are losing at RB.If the rest of the league "overpays" for RB's and your values are actually correct, then you shouldn't be getting "value" at WR, you should be winning the studs at WR and QB. You should be able to do this because everyone else is blowing their cash on RB's.

If you are sitting back and enjoying how you grabbed 3 WR2's for bargain prices, that's not going to win you your league unless you also loaded up on top players at QB, WR and TE as someone else suggested.

Nothing wrong with grabbing some trade depth if the prices are good, but too many people in auction formats won't adjust mid-auction and adhere doggedly to their pre-auction value sheets without realizing that they are going to end up with a roster full of #2's, albeit at good prices.

 

[Warpig]

i've been doing auctions for years now and something i've realized in my experience is that for each tier (RB1-4, RB5-..., etc), the bookends of each tier will go for more money than they should. everyone is excited when the draft starts, so if AP or CJ get called out first, they're gonna go for a little more to the guy that has to have him. then as the tier is drying up, people will panic, and the last guy of that tier will then go for more since more people will be competing for him. The key is to find the middle ground of the tier. Those are where the deals are.

Normally I would agree here, but in this particular league I am in, which is starting to wind down, there weren't really any "bargains" per say. Here is what could be considered bargains:Marion Barber - $36Brandon Jacobs - $50/Ahmad Bradshaw - $52Clinton Portis - $31Michael Bush - $48/Darren McFadden - $56Steve Slaton - $29Joseph Addai - $61/Donald Brown - $65Fred Jackson - $39/Marshawn Lynch - $33Ronnie Brown - $49/ Ricky Williams - $35Laurence Maroney - $39Cedrick Benson - $72Jerome Harrison - $35Pierre Thomas - $77Carnell Williams - $30Justin Forsett - $25/Leon Washington - $32/Julius Jones - $2...any other "starting" RB went for $80 and up. Not sure I'd want to depend on any of the guys mentioned above as my #1 guy...unless you back them up with 3 or more stud WRs and or TEs. But all the stud WRs went for similar prices to the RBs so not sure that really happened for anyone.I currently have a couple bids on some guys but if I win them (assuming I will), I will have 45 players on my roster (we can have up to 53) and I'll still have $182 to play with. I broke it down and here's what I averaged per player at each position:QB - $35.3RB - $52.75WR - $34.4TE - $12.25PK - $6PN - $2.5DT - $1DE - $13.5LB - $10.8CB - $2.5S - $7.5As I mentioned previously, I refuse to pay more than 1 or 2 dollars for DTs and CBs since you can usually pick them up on the waiver wire throughout the year. However, this league rewards return yards so CBs that return kicks/punts are worth more.With all that said, here is my current roster (assuming I win my current auctions):1 QB ELI MANNING NYG $732 QB ALEX SMITH SF $303 QB SENECA WALLACE CLE $34 RB MJD JAX $1365 RB DARREN MCFADDEN OAK $566 RB WILLIS MCGAHEE BAL $167 RB MEWELDE MOORE PIT $38 WR CALVIN JOHNSON DET $1119 WR JEREMY MACLIN PHI $6910 WR BRAYLON EDWARDS NYJ $3311 WR LOUIS MURPHY OAK $912 WR JAMES JONES GB $1513 WR DEION BRANCH SEA $114 WR STEVE JOHNSON BUF $315 TE KELLEN WINSLOW TB $3116 TE TRAVIS BECKUM NYG $217 TE CORNELIUS INGRAM PHI $218 TE BEN WATSON CLE $1419 PK S. JANIKOWSKI OAK $520 PK PHIL DAWSON CLE $721 PN BRETT KERN TEN $322 PN ADAM PODLESH JAX $223 DT DOMATA PEKO CIN $124 DT CHRIS CANTY NYG $125 DE MARIO WILLIAMS HOU $3126 DE RICHARD SEYMOUR OAK $827 DE LAWRENCE JACKSON SEA $1128 DE TIM CROWDER TB $429 LB ANDRA DAVIS BUF $1130 LB EJ HENDERSON MIN $2531 LB BRADIE JAMES DAL $3132 LB JAMES FARRIOR PIT $1133 LB BART SCOTT NYJ $634 LB LEROY HILL SEA $135 LB C. CROWDER MIA $636 LB JASPER BRINKLEY MIN $137 LB SHAUN PHILIPS SDC $638 CB CHRIS JOHNSON OAK $239 CB ANTOINE CASON SDC $340 CB TRAMON WILLIAMS GB $441 CB COREY WEBSTER NYG $142 S OJ ATOGWE STL $1243 S MICHAEL GRIFFIN TEN $1544 S ROY WILLIAMS CIN $145 S GERALD ALEXANDER JAX $2Hope this is somewhat educational for ya.

 

[Lord Fantasy]

i've been doing auctions for years now and something i've realized in my experience is that for each tier (RB1-4, RB5-..., etc), the bookends of each tier will go for more money than they should. everyone is excited when the draft starts, so if AP or CJ get called out first, they're gonna go for a little more to the guy that has to have him. then as the tier is drying up, people will panic, and the last guy of that tier will then go for more since more people will be competing for him.

The key is to find the middle ground of the tier. Those are where the deals are.

Exceptionally good point. And just to put names to that point, I could see that happening with QB this year. Manning, Brees, Rodgers go off the board, maybe Romo, Rivers, and Brady go, and then two or three owners bid up Shaub, because of a the perceived drop-off there, and he winds up costing more than the previous three. You really can't just assume the next-ranked guy will go for lower, and that you can get him for a certain amount.

These are both good reminders that the auction can go hot or cold based on who's left, perception of who's left, individual team needs, group think, escalating drunkenness, etc. I think this is just another reason to perhaps overpay for one or two high confidence picks and then let the rest of the draft come to you. Last year I executed my WR-WR-WR strategy to a tee, but stuck to it so closely to it that I passed on good players (like CJ3 - doh!) who went for criminally low amounts.

 

[zed2283]

i've been doing auctions for years now and something i've realized in my experience is that for each tier (RB1-4, RB5-..., etc), the bookends of each tier will go for more money than they should. everyone is excited when the draft starts, so if AP or CJ get called out first, they're gonna go for a little more to the guy that has to have him. then as the tier is drying up, people will panic, and the last guy of that tier will then go for more since more people will be competing for him.

The key is to find the middle ground of the tier. Those are where the deals are.

Exceptionally good point. And just to put names to that point, I could see that happening with QB this year. Manning, Brees, Rodgers go off the board, maybe Romo, Rivers, and Brady go, and then two or three owners bid up Shaub, because of a the perceived drop-off there, and he winds up costing more than the previous three. You really can't just assume the next-ranked guy will go for lower, and that you can get him for a certain amount.

These are both good reminders that the auction can go hot or cold based on who's left, perception of who's left, individual team needs, group think, escalating drunkenness, etc. I think this is just another reason to perhaps overpay for one or two high confidence picks and then let the rest of the draft come to you. Last year I executed my WR-WR-WR strategy to a tee, but stuck to it so closely to it that I passed on good players (like CJ3 - doh!) who went for criminally low amounts.

Also highlights the need to keep track of how much money is still out there overall, as well as per team.

 

[roadkill1292]

i've been doing auctions for years now and something i've realized in my experience is that for each tier (RB1-4, RB5-..., etc), the bookends of each tier will go for more money than they should. everyone is excited when the draft starts, so if AP or CJ get called out first, they're gonna go for a little more to the guy that has to have him. then as the tier is drying up, people will panic, and the last guy of that tier will then go for more since more people will be competing for him. The key is to find the middle ground of the tier. Those are where the deals are.

These are some of the best parts of every auction -- the late bidding wars on the last few perceived players of value. It also happens when I'm several beers along and easily and highly amused.

 

[inca911]

If owners are overbidding in one particular area, there must be a corresponding area where the values of players are depressed as a result. In many leagues, I see the "top tier" talent is overbid, the second level talent is much cheaper than it should be, and the lower tier talent is appropriately valued. In other leagues, it is sometimes the top tier talent that is undervalued, and the second tier is overpriced. By adapting to how each auction behaves, you end up with radically different types of teams in various leagues. But you will end up with teams that are highly competetive with a very good chance to win it all, and that is the goal of the auction.

 

[inca911]

I think this is just another reason to perhaps overpay for one or two high confidence picks and then let the rest of the draft come to you. Last year I executed my WR-WR-WR strategy to a tee, but stuck to it so closely to it that I passed on good players (like CJ3 - doh!) who went for criminally low amounts.

If you are talking just a couple dollars extra for a player, than you really aren't overpaying since your projections aren't going to be that accurate anyway. However, if you are overpaying a significant amount for these players, then you are actually creating the very scenario that you described. Your team with the two overpriced WRs would probably have been much better off with all those good players who were criminally undervalued instead. Hopefully you recognize that the "criminally low amounts" were something you likely helped cause....